Abstract This essay examines two books, Jed Esty’s The Future of Decline: Anglo-American Culture at its Limits (2022) and an edited collection, The Long 2020 (2022), in terms of their respective geometries of history, or the ways in which they extrapolate possible futures for the US from contemporary material conditions. It considers the decline of US global hegemony and the crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic insofar as they puncture the nationalist fantasies of US exceptionalism. It also makes a case for steering between the alternatives of apocalypse and redemption in favor of a historical materialist reckoning with US socioeconomic decline. Learning from crisis and decline, the essay argues, doesn’t have to mean surrendering radical political or utopian impulses. It can also mean recasting social hope as the collective reclaiming of freedom from exceptionalism. Finally, the essay makes a methodological proposal for bringing together existential and structural approaches to history (or new materialist and Marxist modes of analysis) in literary and cultural studies, as well as critical theory.