AbstractWe used biological and physical responses at 71 shallow waterbodies with contrasting nutrient levels undergoing recovery from eutrophication to predict potential changes in waterbird species abundance, an important component of lake ecosystems. These general predictions were tested using 28 years of breeding waterbird data from three Danish shallow eutrophic lakes, comparing species-specific responses to improved nutrient and water transparency in two lakes with a third where conditions remained constantly suitable for breeding waterbirds. We predicted positive responses to improved water quality from pursuit diving predators (three grebe species), a specialist zooplankton feeder (northern shoveler Anas clypeata) and waterbirds feeding on (common pochard Aythya ferina) or within (tufted duck A. fuligula) submerged macrophyte underwater canopies. These species were characterised by positive waterbird community composition changes (using Principal Components Analysis) associated with decreasing nutrient loading and increasing water transparency at two lakes, with no change in breeding waterbird community at the third. Secchi depth explained 73–95% of variance in both PC axes at both restored lakes, but not at the third, suggesting water transparency was the major factor driving waterbird community composition. These examples show predicting waterbird species-specific responses to management can usefully direct the use of breeding waterbirds as indicator species.