Analyst Earnings Forecast Errors Research Articles

Earnings optimism in green stocks

ABSTRACT In this study, we systematically examine earnings expectations, proxied by consensus analyst earnings forecast errors (EFEs), about stocks in green energy and clean technology sectors. We find that the EFEs of green stocks are generally positive from 1992 to 2016, indicating a predominance of earnings optimism. However, the earnings optimism of green stocks is significantly less strong than that of the market portfolio. In addition, we observe a segment-varying earnings optimism pattern in green stocks. Moreover, it is observed that investors become more and more optimistic when forecasting earnings of green stocks. In the period from 2008 to 2016, while investors exhibit slightly less optimistic expectations about market-level earnings performance after experiencing the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, they tend to be clearly more confident about the earnings prospects of green stocks in the same period as the first and second commitment periods of the Kyoto Protocol take effect.

Auditors’ legal liability and client firms’ comparability: evidence from China

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the relation between audit firms’ switch to limited liability partnership (LLP) from limited liability company (LLC) and client firms’ earnings comparability. If LLP auditors, who have a higher liability exposure than LLC auditors, are more consistent in implementing generally accepted accounting principles and executing firm-wide audit methodologies, client firms’ earnings comparability will increase.Design/methodology/approachUsing data from China, the authors examine whether client firm-pairs of LLP auditors have higher earnings comparability than client firm-pairs of LLC auditors. The authors also perform cross-sectional tests to shed light on the mechanisms through which auditors’ litigation exposure affects client firms’ comparability.FindingsThe authors find that firm-pairs in which both firms are audited by LLP auditors exhibit higher earnings comparability than other firm-pairs. This result is stronger when client firms are audited by the same auditor, when client firms are audited by the top 10 auditors and when the auditors are less dependent on the client firms. The authors also document that firm-pairs in which both firms are audited by LLP auditors have lower average analyst earnings forecast error and forecast dispersion.Originality/valueTo the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to examine the relation between auditor’s litigation exposure and client firms’ earnings comparability. It also extends the literature on audit firm organizational form and audit quality.

Doing good in periods of high uncertainty: Economic policy uncertainty, corporate social responsibility, and analyst forecast error

We investigate the behavior of analyst earnings forecast error in response to policy uncertainty. We find that the accuracy of analyst forecasts is compromised at times of increased economic policy uncertainty, when market volatility and information opacity are high. This negative association between policy uncertainty and earnings forecast accuracy is alleviated in firms where good CSR practices are in place. The disclosure of CSR-related nonfinancial information reportedly improves forecast accuracy; in the context of policy uncertainty, we document that CSR plays a stabilizing role by moderating analyst forecast error. Additionally, we report that the moderating effect of CSR is more pronounced in domestic rather than multinational firms, where, for the former, analysts are able to better assess the quality of information. Finally, we observe that analysts attach more value to the external legitimacy aspect of CSR rather than internal sustainability in guaranteeing earnings resilience in the face of high policy uncertainty. Our results remain valid in various robustness settings.

Predictability of Analyst Earnings Forecast Errors and Institutional and Individual Investors’ Reactions to Earnings News

We decompose analysts’ earnings forecast error into predictable and unpredictable components and investigate individual vis-à-vis institutional investors’ reactions to each of these components. We find that in the immediate post-earnings announcement window, only individuals under-react to the predictable component, while both individuals and institutions under-react to the unpredictable component. The price drift in this window is driven primarily by investors’ under-reaction to the unpredictable component. This drift remains highly significant in larger firms and intensifies in firms with complex financial reports, suggesting that it likely represents the slow and noisy process of price discovery. Around the next quarterly earnings announcement, only individuals under-react to the previous quarter’s predictable component, and this fixation drives the entire price drift in this window. This drift disappears in larger firms and gets exacerbated in firms with greater forecast error autocorrelations, suggesting that it is likely attributable to incomplete processing of earnings information by individuals.

Do Firms That Have a Common Signing Auditor Exhibit Higher Earnings Comparability?

ABSTRACT We hypothesize that if individual auditors possess unique audit styles that they consistently apply to different audit engagements, then client firms with a common signing auditor will exhibit higher earnings comparability. Using a large sample of Chinese firms, we find that client firms report more comparable earnings when they are audited by the same individual auditor than when they are audited by (1) different audit firms, (2) the same audit firm, but different audit offices, and (3) the same audit office, but different individual auditors. The individual auditor style effect is stronger for larger audit firms, senior signing auditors, and signing auditors with more stable teamwork experience. We also document that having a common signing auditor is associated with lower analyst earnings forecast error and dispersion for client firms. This study contributes to the literature by showing that individual auditors have a significant impact on client firms' earnings comparability.

Diversified Firms and Analyst Earnings Forecasts: The Role of Management Guidance at the Segment Level

ABSTRACTUsing a unique, manually collected dataset, we are the first to analyze the role that management guidance at the segment level plays for the financial analyst earnings forecasts of diversified firms. About half of the diversified European firms in the sample provide segment-level guidance (SLG), with considerable variation in precision and disaggregation. We find that (1) analyst earnings forecast errors are smaller, and (2) the magnitude of disagreement between individual forecasts and the average forecast is lower for firms that provide SLG, beyond the effect of group-level guidance. The results hold in matched samples and within-firm analyses around SLG initiation. We further show that the results are stronger in situations characterized by higher information asymmetry, but not in situations characterized by operational complexity. Overall, the results imply that SLG mitigates, to some extent, the difficult task that financial analysts face when valuing diversified companies.

Diversified Firms and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: The Role of Management Guidance at the Segment Level

Using a unique, manually-collected dataset, we are the first to analyze the role that management guidance at the segment level plays for the financial analyst earnings forecasts of diversified firms. About half of the diversified European firms in the sample provide segment-level guidance (SLG), with considerable variation in precision and disaggregation. We find that (1) analyst earnings forecast errors are smaller, and (2) the magnitude of disagreement between individual forecasts and the average forecast is lower for firms that provide SLG, beyond the effect of group-level guidance. The results hold in matched samples and within-firm analyses around SLG initiation. We further show that the results are stronger in situations characterized by higher information asymmetry, but not in situations characterized by operational complexity. Overall, the results imply that SLG mitigates to some extent the difficult task that financial analysts face when valuing diversified companies.

Do Firms That Have a Common Signing Auditor Exhibit Higher Earnings Comparability?

We hypothesize that if individual auditors possess unique audit styles that they consistently apply to different audit engagements, then client firms with a common signing auditor will exhibit higher earnings comparability. Using a large sample of Chinese firms, we find that client firms report more comparable earnings when they are audited by the same individual auditor than when they are audited by (1) different audit firms, (2) the same audit firm but different audit offices, and (3) the same audit office but different individual auditors. The individual auditor style effect is stronger for larger audit firms, senior signing auditors, and signing auditors with more stable teamwork experience. We also document that having a common signing auditor is associated with lower analyst earnings forecast error and dispersion for client firms. This study contributes to the literature by showing that individual auditors have a significant impact on client firms’ earnings comparability.

Corporate innovation strategy and disclosure policy

We examine the impact of a firm’s innovation strategy on its disclosure policy. Using a sample of innovation-intensive U.S. firms from 1992 to 2012, we find that firms with higher intensity of exploratory (exploitative) innovation are more (less) inclined to issue management earnings forecasts. These forecasts are generally less (more) optimistic, accurate and precise. We also find that exploration-oriented firms issue more earnings forecasts in order to avoid disclosing proprietary information about their innovation activities. They tend to issue more conservative forecasts in order to avoid large stock price decline. Overall, exploration-oriented firms have a more opaque information environment as manifested in higher analyst earnings forecast error and greater forecast dispersion. Our findings suggest that knowledge-intensive firms appear to incorporate innovation strategy in developing their disclosure policy.

Income Smoothing, Information Uncertainty, Stock Returns, and Cost of Equity

This paper examines the effect of income smoothing on information uncertainty, stock returns, and cost of equity. I show that income smoothing through both total accruals and discretionary accruals tends to reduce firms' information uncertainty, as measured by stock return volatility, analyst earnings forecast dispersion, and analyst earnings forecast error. Further, I provide evidence that stocks of income smoothing firms are priced with a premium. Controlling for earnings shocks and other firm characteristics, income smoothing firms have significantly higher abnormal returns around earnings announcement. In addition, I show that income smoothing reduces firms' implied cost of equity or expected returns. The result is more robust over short horizons up to two years.

Stock Market Liquidity, Aggregate Analyst Forecast Errors, and the Economy

Naes, Skjeltorp, and Odegaard (2011) suggest that stock market liquidity is a good leading indicator of the economy because of the “flight-to-quality” behavior of informed investors, whose sells (buys) tend to lead stock market liquidity to decrease (increase) and tend to occur before economic downturns (expansions). To further understand the mechanism in the economic forecastability of stock market liquidity, we hypothesize that analyst earnings forecast errors have a systematic component, which is predictable and related to changes in the economy, and that smart investors exploit analyst forecast errors, which leads to the economic forecastability of stock market liquidity. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that there is a strong correlation between detrended aggregate analyst forecast errors and concurrent GDP growth and that a large part of the forecast errors can be predicted using lagged macro variables. Once we control for the predictable forecast errors, the economic forecastability of stock market liquidity disappears. Thus, our study reveals that aggregate analyst forecast errors are very informative about business cycle and contain all the relevant information for stock market liquidity as a leading economic indicator.

Income Smoothing, Information Uncertainty, Stock Returns, and Cost of Equity

This paper examines the effect of income smoothing on information uncertainty, stock returns, and cost of equity. I show that income smoothing through both total accruals and discretionary accruals tends to reduce firms’ information uncertainty, as measured by stock return volatility, analyst earnings forecast dispersion, and analyst earnings forecast error. Further, I provide evidence that stocks of income smoothing firms are priced with a premium. Controlling for earnings shocks and other firm characteristics, income smoothing firms have significantly higher abnormal returns around earnings announcement. In addition, I show that income smoothing reduces firms’ implied cost of equity or expected returns. The result is more robust over short horizons up to two years.

A Study on the Relation of Analyst's Earnings Forecast Error and Ownership Discrepancy

A Study on the Relation of Analyst's Earnings Forecast Error and Ownership Discrepancy

Analysts’ Use of Nonfinancial Information Disclosures

In this study I examine how analysts process nonfinancial information and how this is affected by the patterns of firms’ nonfinancial information disclosures. More specifically, I examine the association between analyst earnings forecast errors and the persistence of nonfinancial disclosures, both across information content and over time. The study focuses on firms in the wireless industry for the period 1997–2007. The results show that analysts tend to underreact to the information contained in customer acquisition cost, average revenue per user, and the number of subscribers. These are the performance measures that have significant predictive ability for future earnings of wireless firms. Distinguishing between firms on the basis of their nonfinancial disclosure patterns reveals that the above findings are driven primarily by firms with irregular disclosures. There is no evidence of analysts’ inefficiency in evaluating the content of nonfinancial metrics provided by persistently disclosing firms. This implies that the lack of systematic disclosures of performance measures restricts financial analysts’ ability to fully analyze the contributions of these metrics for future earnings.

Understated Book Values and Analyst Earnings Forecast Errors*

Understated Book Values and Analyst Earnings Forecast Errors*

The Association between Institutional Ownership and the Accuracy of Analyst Earnings Forecasts: A Simultaneous Equations Analysis*

In this study we examined the association of analyst earnings forecast error with a refined measure of institutional ownership for different groups of institutional investors (transient, dedicated, and quasi-indexers) applying a simultaneous equations analysis. We hypothesized that, due to different investment strategies, only transient investors will pay attention to corporate earnings predictability and will have higher investment in companies with more predictable earnings (lower forecast error). We also assumed that earnings predictability is not relevant for the investment decisions of dedicated investors and quasi-indexers. Therefore, we didn't expect to find any association between analyst earnings forecast error and extent of ownership by dedicated investors and quasi-indexers in those companies. Empirical evidence suggests that transient investors are indeed drawn to companies with lower forecast errors, while dedicated investors largely ignore earnings predictability in their investment decisions. Surprisingly, however, (1) ownership of quasi-indexers is associated with higher forecast error, and (2) the higher institutional ownership by any of three groups consequently results in the bigger forecast error. These findings should be of relevance for financial analysts and for researchers examining earnings management/earnings forecast accuracy. They highlight the importance to adjust for investors' heterogeneity in research models rather than to cast institutional investors as a homogeneous group. It also appears that, whether they are aware of it or not, in their attempts to achieve predictable earnings both management and analysts appeal only to one type of institutional investors: transient.

Domestic Accounting Standards, International Accounting Standards, and the Predictability of Earnings

We investigate (1) whether the variation in accounting standards across national boundaries relative to International Accounting Standards (IAS) has an impact on the ability of financial analysts to forecast non‐U.S. firms’ earnings accurately, and (2) whether analyst forecast accuracy changes after firms adopt IAS. IAS are a set of financial reporting policies that typically require increased disclosure and restrict management’s choices of measurement methods relative to the accounting standards of our sample firms’ countries of domicile. We develop indexes of differences in countries’ accounting disclosure and measurement policies relative to IAS, and document that greater differences in accounting standards relative to IAS are significantly and positively associated with the absolute value of analyst earnings forecast errors. Further, we show that analyst forecast accuracy improves after firms adopt IAS. More specifically, after controlling for changes in the market value of equity, changes in analyst following, and changes in the number of news reports, we find that the convergence in firms’ accounting policies brought about by adopting IAS is positively associated with the reduction in analyst forecast errors.

Domestic Accounting Standards, International Accounting Standards, and the Predictability of Earnings

We investigate (1) whether the variation in accounting standards across national boundaries relative to International Accounting Standards (IAS) has an impact on the ability of financial analysts to forecast non-US firms' earnings accurately, and (2) whether analyst forecast accuracy changes after firms adopt IAS. IAS are a set of financial reporting policies that typically require increased disclosure and restrict management's choices of measurement methods relative to the accounting standards of our sample firms' countries of domicile. We develop indexes of differences in countries' accounting disclosure and measurement policies relative to IAS, and document that greater differences in accounting standards relative to IAS are significantly and positively associated with the absolute value of analyst earnings forecast errors. Further, we show that analyst forecast accuracy improves after firms adopt IAS. More specifically, after controlling for changes in the market value of equity, changes in analyst following, and changes in the number of news reports, we find that the convergence in firms' accounting policies brought about by adopting IAS is positively associated with the reduction in analyst forecast errors.

Do Managers' Accrual Decisions Speak Louder Than Words?

This paper examines whether analyst earnings forecast revisions around management earnings forecasts are conditioned on managers' previous accrual decisions. We find that analysts rely less heavily on management earnings forecast information when it conflicts with prior signals about earnings performance contained in accruals. Moreover, we find that analyst earnings forecast errors decline by a smaller amount around management earnings forecasts when management earnings forecast information and prior accrual signals are inconsistent. These findings suggest that the influence of management earnings forecasts on analysts' earnings expectations is contingent upon managers being able to convince analysts as to the informativeness of these disclosures in light of prior signals about earnings performance contained in accruals.

Information Effects of Spin-offs, Equity Carve-outs, and Targeted Stock Offerings

This paper investigates whether a spin-off, equity carve-out, or targeted stock offering results in making the operating performance of a firm's business segments more transparent. Using a sample of 146 spin-offs, equity carve-outs, and targeted stock offerings between 1990-1995, we document significant decreases in analyst earnings forecast errors as well as divergence among individual analyst earnings forecasts following these transactions. Moreover, we find that the levels of analyst and brokerage house coverage increase significantly following these transactions. Tracking the identity of individual analysts, we find that there is substantial analyst turnover around the sample deals, and the decrease in analyst earnings forecast errors following the sample deals is greatest when firms are able to attract new analysts. Taken together, these findings suggest that firms experience improvements in the quality of analyst coverage around spin-offs, equity carve-outs, and targeted stock offerings, and these improvements are at least partially driven by changes in the composition of analyst coverage. See also the related papers Valuation of Bankrupt Firms by Stuart Gilson, Edith Hotchkiss, and Richard Ruback; and Junk Bonds, Bank Debt, and Financing Corporate Growth by Stuart Gilson and Jerold Warner