Analysis Of Population Changes Research Articles

Differentiation of personal income by the autonomous regions of Spain

Average per capita income of the population is one of the important indicators reflecting the standard of living in the country. It becomes relevant to determine reasons for differentiating income per capita and per household and to identify the causes that affect it. The paper considers the income of the population in the autonomous regions of Spain for 2008–2021 both per capita and per household. A comparative analysis of incomes with and without imputed rents has been carried out, that is, the share of rental expenditure in household income and the trend in its change over the last thirteen years have been determined. The results of the study revealed higher living standards in some industrialized regions of the North of the country, such as Navarra and the Basque Country, as well as in regions where large metropolitan areas are located. These are the Autonomous Region of Madrid with a population of 6.7 million people (directly Madrid – about 5 million people) and Catalonia with a population of 7.7 million people with the administrative center in Barcelona (4.5 million people). Slow growth of citizens’ expenditures on rental housing has also been revealed. Due to growing individualization of the population and reduction of the number of people in a family, the number of people in one household is decreasing on average in the country. The analysis of population change in Spain shows that the demographic situation remains positively stable. In general, there is population growth, but depopulation is occurring in the interior regions of the country, such as Extremadura, Castile-La Mancha, Castile and Leon, Aragon. In addition to living standards, other factors such as climate, proximity to the coast, and tourist attractiveness have an impact on migration processes.

Statistical analysis of chosen aspects of population shifts in Poland 2011-2021 as a component of sustainable urban development systems

The aim of the study is to conduct a statistical analysis of population changes in Poland's municipalities in 2021 compared to 2011 using national censuses data. Population changes in cities and their surroundings play a crucial role in shaping urban environments, economies, and societies. Monitoring these changes is essential for various reasons, including urban planning, resource allocation, and environmental conservation. Firstly, understanding population trends empowers city officials and planners to make well-informed decisions that promote sustainable urban growth. Secondly, effective resource allocation is dependent on accurate population data. By tracking the changes in the population, city administrators can ensure equitable distribution of resources, such as healthcare, education, and public safety. Thirdly, monitoring population changes enables cities to gauge the economic and social impacts of demographic shifts. The conducted study takes into account the analysis of changes in the population in two dimensions. The first is the analysis of population changes in relative terms. The second dimension refers to identifying patterns in population changes. Determining the main directions of population shifts will identify those areas where an influx of population will be associated with challenges for local authorities related to new investment needs in public infrastructure, and areas where a decline in population will be associated with a decline in income for local authorities and difficulties in implementing both current policies and future investments.

Population of the north Caucasus in the present stage: indicators of regional differentiation

Based on the collected statistical material, the analysis of population changes in the North Caucasus regions since the last allRussian population census until 2018 was conducted. The article considers the main factors of the current population reproduction, and trends in the dynamics of the population in the North Caucasus were set. Based on the obtained data, the subjects of the North Caucasus are divided into two categories. The first are Russian-speaking regions where the absolute population growth is observed due to a positive migration balance that covers the natural decline of the population. The other category includes mainly national republics with a high natural growth that covers a significant migration outflow of the population. Despite the favorable demographic situation in the region under study, there is a trend towards the end of the demographic boom that is typical of the entire North Caucasus region. In general, there is a stabilization of the birth rate and natural growth, and a decrease in the intensity of migration movements.

Entropy-probabilistic modeling as a tool for forming key competencies of a doctor

The possibility of using modern digital educational technologies in the formation of key competencies of a doctor is shown on the example of the entropy-probability model, which is a synthesis of the system-entropy approach and multidimensional risk analysis of stochastic systems. Examples of practical application of this model in preventive medicine are given: analysis of population entropy in the prevention of noncommunicable diseases, comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness and safety of medicines, quantitative assessment of population health with the determination of the contribution of individual risk factors, and systematic analysis of population changes in monitoring risk factors. The introduction of entropy-probabilistic modeling in the educational process will help in the formation of the doctor’s basic universal, professional competencies and systematic clinical thinking.

Prognoza demograficzna dla Warszawy = A demographic forecast for Warsaw

This article offers assumptions and results relating to six projection variants of demographic forecasting (scenario analysis of population change) elaborated for Warsaw City Hall (Śleszyński et al., 2019). The analysis was based on the population size estimated by reference to telemetry calculations obtained from the Orange Polska telephone company. It revealed that the so-called ‘night population’ size is larger by 213,000 than the registered population size of the Polish capital. Estimates were made for the 18 districts of Warsaw in one-year intervals for the 2018 2050 period, according to six variant scenarios (continuation, suburbanisation, concentration, polarisation, ‘low’ immigration and ‘high’ immigration). The scenarios were predominately differentiated in terms of internal and international migration levels, and was inter alia conditioned by the socio-economic development model for Poland and the spatial policy pursued in the Warsaw Metropolitan Area. Based on the respective variant, the population estimates for the city as a whole in 2030 range from 1,980,000 to 2,132,000, as compared with 1,785 2,249,000 in 2050. The most important conclusion, which implies practical solutions is related to the finding that till 2050 there is no basis to anticipate a stronger population growth in Warsaw. This reflects both the exhaustion of traditional source regions for migrants and the fertility rates in the city, which remain low in real terms, even if they are relatively high by the standards of Polish cities in general. Only a distinct intensification of immigration and a parallel inflow of migrants from other regions of Poland and abroad, would lead to a population growth of the city. The most probable variant is that of continuation, as it reflects the inertia among the key factors. This would at first denote an increase in population to 2,044,000 in 2028, followed by a slow decline (in 2040 – 2,005,000, in 2050 – 1,929,000). The ageing of the population and a marked increase in post-working age population are both inevitable. By 2050, the population in this category will most probably account for more than 25% of the total for Warsaw (as compared with 18 per cent currently). It is predicted that the downtown districts (especially Śródmieście and Praga Północ) will witness dec¬lines in the number of inhabitants, even as the so-called ‘developing’ parts of the city (like Białołęka, Wilanów or Ursus) continue to increase, while other external districts like Ursynów will move over to population stagnation. The main factor determining the condition and structure of Warsaw’s population will thus be migration, predominately including internal and international immigration. In the future, the most important factor determining mobility will be the absolute decrease in migration resources in the capital’s main basin. At the same time, the expected supply gap on the labour market (2 7 million people nationally by 2050) will result in competition for employees between urban centres at a much greater level than at present. In the case of Warsaw this may result in an intensification of three complementary processes, i.e. increased internal drainage, foreign immigration and commuting to work. There are several reasons why stagnation or population decline will pose no threat to Warsaw. Firstly, the capital ‘operates’ as a functional area, together with its suburban zone, for which at least weak population growth should be expected till 2050. Secondly, the future development of the capital city depends less on its population size, and more on the quality of human capital, including the size of the so-called ‘creative class’. The typical demographic burden parameters associated with the ratio of people of non-productive to productive age are also less important than the latter factor. While population loss in a city as large as Warsaw does not constitute a social problem, the occurrence and increase of social inequalities is a major one.

Analysis of Population Change and Movement Using Robust Design Removal Data

In capture-mark-reencounter studies, Pollock’s robust design combines methods for open populations with methods for closed populations. Open population features of the robust design allow for estimation of rates of death or permanent emigration, and closed population features enhance estimation of population sizes. We describe a similar design, but for use with removal data. Data collection occurs on secondary sampling occasions clustered within primary sampling periods. Primary sampling periods are intervals of brief enough duration that it can be safely assumed that the population is unchanged by births, deaths, immigration or emigration during them; all population change and movement occurs between primary sampling periods. Our model provides a basis for inference about population size, changes in population size, and movement rates among sample locations between primary sampling periods. Movement rates are modeled as functions of distance and time. Capture probabilities are modeled as a function of effort. We apply the model to data obtained in attempting to eradicate an introduced population of veiled chameleons (Chamaeleo calyptratus) on the island of Maui in Hawaii. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Topical Problems in Gerontology

Abstract—Currently, gerontology is changing its priorities. If yesterday the main was search for biological mechanisms of aging (independent work of gerontologists), that today the problems of practical application of the acquired knowledge for target purposes come to the fore deceleration of human aging (joint work of gerontologists and geriatricians). To do this, it is necessary to develop common views on the fundamental concepts and ideas about the aging process and to begin gerontological analysis of population changes in the historical dynamics of life expectancy and causes of death in developed countries. The major basic concepts revealed by the analysis of the population mechanisms that underlie the slowing of aging in Finland during the 1970–2011 period are considered.

Depopulacja zespołów miejskich w sudeckiej części Dolnego Śląska

Głównym celem opracowania jest analiza zmian ludnościowych, jakie miały miejsce w aglomeracjach jeleniogórskiej i wałbrzyskiej w latach 1995–2014. Sytuację demograficzną Jeleniej Góry i Wałbrzycha pogorszyły niekorzystne zmiany społeczno-gospodarcze i administracyjne w latach 90. XX w. Ubytek liczby ludności w tych miastach nie jest rekompensowany przez procesy suburbanizacji w ich otoczeniu. Dotyczy to w szczególności aglomeracji wałbrzyskiej, gdzie rozwój suburbanizacji utrudnia słabość bazy ekonomicznej tutejszych ośrodków miejskich oraz niekorzystny wizerunek Wałbrzycha i całego regionu wałbrzyskiego. Negatywny wpływ na sytuację demograficzną obu zespołów miejskich ma także oddziaływanie niedalekiego Wrocławia.

Prostorski in prebivalstveni razvoj naselij v južnem delu Ljubljanske urbane regije

Prispevek prinaša rezultate analize spreminjanja števila prebivalstva in sočasnega prostorskega razvoja naselij južnega dela Ljubljanske urbane regije, ki smo ga opredelili kot območje občin Borovnica, Brezovica, Log-Dragomer, Ig in Škofljica. To območje vključuje ožje suburbanizirano obmestje, širše obmestje in podeželska naselja. Želeli smo ugotoviti, ali se dinamika spreminjanja števila prebivalstva in prostorski razvoj naselij razlikujeta. Zanimalo nas je tudi, ali je v primerjavi z obdobjem pred letom 2002 prišlo do pomembnejših sprememb v gibanju in težnjah spreminjanja števila prebivalstva.

A safety network against regional population collapse: mature subpopulations in refuges distributed across the landscape

Theory suggests that marine reserve networks can maintain wide geographical distributions of exploited fish and invertebrates. Since 2005, ten regions in southwest New Zealand have been designated no‐take marine reserves nested within eleven commercial fishing exclusion zones. We observed increases in abundance of rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) and blue cod (Parapercis colias) from 2002–2010 within some marine reserves, but not in the other management zones. Mature size distributions of rock lobsters were only observed within protected areas. Model based inference ranked environmental descriptors versus area under protection in explaining abundance and changes in abundance observed within marine reserves and indicated that J. edwardsii became most abundant in larger marine reserves, but only under specific environmental conditions. P. colias became most abundant in large marine reserves, particularly those with larger buffers against commercial fishing. Analysis of population changes for both species across Fiordland since implementation of the reserve network (2006–2010) indicated that marine reserves resulted in either increases in, or maintenance of abundance in the face of regional declines. We highlight the potential effectiveness of networks of marine reserves in maintaining subpopulations with high abundance and mature size structure across large geographical areas, particularly if key criteria are incorporated.

Assessing ecosystem vulnerability to invasive rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus)

Despite the widespread introduction of nonnative species and the heterogeneity of ecosystems in their sensitivity to ecological impacts, few studies have assessed ecosystem vulnerability to the entire invasion process, from arrival to establishment and impacts. Our study addresses this challenge by presenting a probabilistic, spatially explicit approach to predicting ecosystem vulnerability to species invasions. Using the freshwater-rich landscapes of Wisconsin, USA, we model invasive rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus) as a function of exposure risk (i.e., likelihood of introduction and establishment of O. rusticus based on a species distribution model) and the sensitivity of the recipient community (i.e., likelihood of impacts on native O. virilis and O. propinquus based on a retrospective analysis of population changes). Artificial neural networks predicted that approximately 10% of 4200 surveyed lakes (n = 388) and approximately 25% of mapped streams (23 523 km total length) are suitable for O. rusticus introduction and establishment. A comparison of repeated surveys before vs. post-1985 revealed that O. virilis was six times as likely and O. propinquus was twice as likely to be extirpated in streams invaded by O. rusticus, compared to streams that were not invaded. Similarly, O. virilis was extirpated in over three-quarters of lakes invaded by O. rusticus compared to half of the uninvaded lakes, whereas no difference was observed for O. propinquus. We identified 115 lakes (approximately 3% of lakes) and approximately 5000 km of streams (approximately 6% of streams) with a 25% chance of introduction, establishment, and extirpation by O. rusticus of either native congener. By identifying highly vulnerable ecosystems, our study offers an effective strategy for prioritizing on-the-ground management action and informing decisions about the most efficient allocation of resources. Moreover, our results provide the flexibility for stakeholders to identify priority sites for prevention efforts given a maximum level of acceptable risk or based on budgetary or time restrictions. To this end, we incorporate the model predictions into a new online mapping tool with the intention of closing the communication gap between academic research and stakeholders that requires information on the prospects of future invasions.

人口変動と土地利用変容からみた郊外居住系市街地の実態と課題に関する研究 －地方中心都市の動向と金沢市における事例研究－

This paper analyzes the trend of urban expansion of local central cities through population change and urban development achievement and clarifies that there is discrepancy between planning assumption of urbanization and actual condition in suburban residential area, through analysis of population change and land use transformation. In the case study of suburban residential area of Kanazawa city, the Land Readjustment Project Area (LRPA) shows the decrease of population and the delay of urbanization, in contrast non-LRPA shows increase of population and the progress of urbanization.

High-Content Imaging Analysis of the Knockdown Effects of Validated siRNAs and Antisense Oligonucleotides

High-content imaging (HCI) provides researchers with a powerful tool for understanding cellular processes. Although phenotypic analysis generated through HCI is a potent technique to determine the overall cellular effects of a given treatment, it frequently produces complex data sets requiring extensive interpretation. The authors developed statistical analyses to decrease the time spent to determine the outcome of each HCI assay and to better understand complex phenotypic changes. To test these tools, the authors performed a comparison experiment between 2 types of oligonucleotide-mediated gene silencing (OMGS), antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs), and short, double-stranded RNAs (siRNAs). Although similar in chemical structure, these 2 methods differ in cellular mechanism of action and off-target effects. Using a library of 50 validated ASOs and siRNAs to the same targets, the authors characterized the differential effects of these 2 technologies using a HeLa cell G2-M cell cycle assay. Although knockdown of a variety of targets by ASOs or siRNAs affected the cell cycle profile, few of those targets were affected by both ASOs and siRNAs. Distribution analysis of population changes induced through target knockdown led to the identification of targets that, when inhibited, could affect the G2-M transition in the cell cycle in a statistically significant manner. The distinctly different mechanisms of action of these 2 forms of gene silencing may help define the use of these treatments in both clinical and research environments.

Population change due to geographic mobility in Albania, 1989–2001, and the repercussions of internal migration for the enlargement of Tirana

AbstractBeing a country in transition, Albania has sustained vast political and socio‐economic changes over the past 15 years, mostly due to its engagement in democratisation and transformation to an open market economy. The pathway to transition has involved economic hardship and political unrest and has been accompanied by intense, large‐scale, geographical mobility. This paper describes population change due to internal and international migration, 1989–2001, using Census data at district level. Its contribution is a technical one in applying a method that allows new estimates to be made of the scale of internal migration in Albania.Descriptive analysis of population changes in 36 Albanian districts, based on the last two censuses, lead to the identification of poles of attraction of internal migrants. Limited data concerning the 1989 Census and the 12 years between the censuses resulted in the creation of various indices that characterise internal migration, such as the Attraction and Expulsion Index stemming from the Origin–Destination Matrix of the districts. In addition an Index of Conservation of the population and an Index of External Migration were also derived at the district level. By considering internal and international migration as two separate phenomena, we emphasise their uniqueness in affecting population change in Albania. The District of Tirana, capital of Albania, absorbed the majority of the inflow of internal migrants. The latter part of the paper focuses on the population of Tirana as the county's major migration destination. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT CHANGES IN REGIONAL AUSTRALIA

Regional Australia has experienced significant changes in population and employment since the early 1990s. Evidence regarding these changes has often been anecdotal, with references in political and media spheres to a ‘Sea Change’ or ‘Tree Change’. There has also been considerable public discussion about the effect that the structural changes and misfortunes within the agricultural sector have had on localities in rural regions. The purpose of this paper is to provide and analyse data on regional population and employment changes since the early 1990s. It will also examine the role that the agricultural sector may have had in these changes. This will provide a basis for informed debate and analysis of population changes in regional Australia and the causes and implications of these changes.

Depopulation of the Russian far East. Magadan Oblast: A Case Study

Abstract The paper presents spatial differentiation and causes of depopulation processes that began in Magadan Oblast in the Russian Far East after the fall of the Soviet Union. In the region under investigation, depopulation is very intensive. The analysis of changes in population in the lower-lever administrative units allows for showing the differences in spatial distribution of depopulation in individual regions [“rayons”]. During the research surveys, allowing for a fuller understanding of the conditions and the process of depopulation, were conducted.

A Hierarchical Analysis of Population Change with Application to Cerulean Warblers

A Hierarchical Analysis of Population Change with Application to Cerulean Warblers

Population: The Dynamics of Change

"This introductory contribution will attempt to give an overview of the demographic analysis of population change under a global perspective and with a long time horizon. Obviously in this context it can only provide some selected highlights which will be grouped around three themes: population growth and the concept of demographic transitions; components of population dynamics; and possible future population trends in major world regions."

サツマイモ食葉性害虫の生態 Ｉ 主要害虫の幼虫の発育経過

Developmental process in the larval stages of three major sweet potato defoliators, Aedia leucomelas LINNE, Agrius convolvuli LINNE and Brachmia triannulella (HERRICH-SCHAFFER), was examined to obtain basic information for the analysis of population changes in the field. Larvae of A. leucomelas were reared under different conditions of temperature and day length on mature or immature sweet potato leaves. Most of the larvae were in the 5th or 6th instar, but the total developmental period was almost identical at 25°C. The number of moltings was more affected by the quality of food than by the temperature and day length. The mean growth rate of the head capsule width of the 5th and 6th instar forms was 1.901 and 1.547, respectively. In A. convolvuli, all larvae fed the sweet potato leves developed to the 5th instar at 25°C in the laboratory. The mean growth rate of the head capsule width was 1.701, which corresponds to DYAR's formula. It was confirmed that larvae of B. triannulella were in the 4th or 5th instar. When they were reared on sweet potato leaves in June, 5th instar forms appeared at the rate of about 40 percent. The mean growth rate of the head capsule width of the 4th and 5th instar forms was 1.628 and 1.429, respectivery.

The analysis of linkages in demographic theory

Many seemingly different questions that arise in the analysis of population change can be phrased as the same technical question: How, within a given demographic model, would variable y change if the age- or time-specific function f were to change arbitrarily in shape and intensity? At present demography lacks the machinery to answer this question in analytical and general form. This paper suggests a method based on modern functional calculus for deriving closed-form expressions for the sensitivity of demographic variables to changes in input functions or schedules. It uses this "linkage method" to obtain closed-form expressions for the response of the intrinsic growth rate, birth rate, and age composition of a stable population to arbitrary marginal changes in its age patterns of fertility and mortality. It uses it also to obtain expressions for the transient response of the age composition of a nonstable population to time-varying changes in the birth sequence, and to age-specific fertility and mortality patterns that change over time. The problem of "bias" in period vital rates is also looked at.