Analysis Of Long-term Changes Research Articles

Analysis of Long-term Changes for Fisheries Production and Marine-Ecosystem Index in Jinhae Bay Considering Climate Change

Analysis of Long-term Changes for Fisheries Production and Marine-Ecosystem Index in Jinhae Bay Considering Climate Change

Mass tourism generated urban land expansion in the catchment of Lake Balaton, Hungary – analysis of long-term changes in characteristic socio-political periods

Understanding changes in land use and land cover (LULC) is a prerequisite for the sustainable management of ecosystems, with implications for regulatory policy. In this study, we use a hierarchical approach to quantify long-term changes in LULC in the catchment of the largest Central-European shallow lake (Lake Balaton, Hungary). We evaluate changes over three centuries at the catchment and different spatial levels of the shoreline. Within this framework, we develop a methodology suitable for analysing land use transformations in the shoreline zone, typically affected by LULC changes stemming from mass tourism. Our findings indicate that LULC transformations at the catchment level were relatively minor compared to those observed along the shoreline, where urbanization driven by mass tourism emerged as a drivers of LULC changes. The dynamics of urbanization closely mirrored socio-political shifts and exhibited a strong dependence on distance from the shore. Temporal trajectories of LULC changes revealed that the most significant alterations occurred within the 0–500 m and 500–1000 m shoreline distance zones during the socialist era when the lake served as a focal point for tourism in Central and Eastern Europe. While the process of mass tourism-induced urbanization has declined significantly since the collapse of the socialist regime, the sprawl of urban (built up) areas into rural territories persist. Given the unregulated nature of urbanization at the forefront, we emphasize the importance for policy makers and local stakeholders to control further transformations of semi-natural and natural areas into built up areas along the shoreline. Achieving sustainable LULC management in lakes affected by mass tourism, such as Lake Balaton, necessitates robust legislative and administrative efforts in spatial planning and regulation. This endeavour should be pursued as a shared interest among residents and tourists alike.

Analysis of long-term changes in algal bloom pattern and their association with Ocean, atmosphere, and land-based processes across the northern Indian Ocean

Algal blooms are global phenomena in marine and fresh waters. An understanding of the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on marine algal blooms is essential for protecting marine ecosystems. We have studied the long-term changes in the spatial patterns of algal blooms over the northern Indian Ocean and assessed the influence of the ocean, atmosphere, and land-based processes on them. We have analyzed multi-source satellite data (2003 – 2020) of various parameters such as algal concentration, temperature, salinity, sea level, particulate organic carbon, precipitation, wind speed, and river discharge on an open-source cloud computing platform. The seasonality of variables is assessed using a harmonic model, and their spatial trend is estimated using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. The spatial relationship between various geophysical parameters and algal bloom concentration is assessed by the cross-correlation test, and the prediction is done using a multivariate autoregression model. Results suggest that each variable exhibits distinguishable seasonal patterns. Algal bloom duration showed a significant increase over time. However, algal bloom coverage showed a significant decline in the coastal waters in all seasons except post-monsoon. The cross-correlation test unveils that lower temperatures, salinity, and sea level promote algal bloom occurrences in coastal waters rather than open waters. Furthermore, the statistical model with a time lag of 2 months shows better performance for prediction of bloom intensity (r2 = 0.86).

Analysis of Electrocardiograms and Behavior in Mice from Pregnancy to Lactation Period.

Changes in the mother-offspring relationship are presumably accompanied by dynamic changes in the autonomic nervous system. Although temporal measurements of autonomic activity have been performed in human mothers and infants, the analysis of long-term changes remains unexplored. Mouse mothers can form social bonds with their pups and have a short period of pregnancy and lactation, which makes them useful for the examination of physiological changes from pregnancy to pup-rearing. Therefore, a telemetry system was used for several weeks to measure the changes in the autonomic nervous system and the behavior of mouse mothers. The current results showed that an electrocardiogram (ECG) could be stably recorded regardless of the movements of mothers and parturition. ECG analysis showed that the heart rate gradually decreased from pregnancy to lactation, and sympathetic activity sharply increased as the pups developed. Furthermore, the simultaneous recording of behavior and ECG in the home cage enabled us to understand the behavior-dependent influences on the ECG, thereby revealing the characteristics of autonomic nervous activity during each behavior. Thus, the present experimental method helps to understand how the physiological characteristics of mothers change from pregnancy through pup rearing, supporting the healthy development of pups.

Analyzing river disruption factors and ecological flow in China's Liu River Basin amid environmental changes.

Water resources variability and availability in a basin affect river flows and sustain river ecosystems. Climate change and human activities disrupt runoff sequences, causing water environmental issues like river channel interruptions. Therefore, determining ecological flow in changing environments is challenging in hydrological research. Based on an analysis of long-term changes in hydrological and meteorological variables and interruption conditions in the semi-arid Liu River Basin (LRB), this study summarizes the controlling factors of river interruption at different temporal and spatial scales and proposes a framework to determine ecological flow under changing environments. Hydrological model and the monthly optimal probability distribution were used to determine the optimal ecological runoff of LRB. The results showed that from 1956 to 2017, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the basin showed no significant decreasing trend, but the streamflow significantly decreased, and the downstream interruption worsened, with an average annual interruption duration of 194days at Xinmin Station from 1988 to 2017. The controlling factors of river interruption are as follows: (1) soil and water conservation measures in the upstream significantly reduce the runoff capacity; (2) the operation mode of the controlling reservoir in the middle reaches changes from "all-year discharge" to "winter storage and spring release" to "combined storage and supply," severing the hydraulic connection between upstream and downstream; and (3) siltation in the downstream river channel coupled with over-extraction of groundwater increases the seepage capacity of the river. The monthly ecological flow of Naodehai Reservoir was determined by considering the monthly seepage losses after reconstructing the natural runoff using the SWAT model and determining the optimal probability distribution function for monthly runoff. The findings are important for downstream LRB ecological restoration and for determining the ecological flow of other river basins in changing environments.

Conveyance efficiency and irrigation water productivity under varying water supply conditions in arid lowlands of Central Asia

A proper assessment of the water allocation system and water–food production relationships is essential to identify water use reduction potentials and enhance crop water productivity in dry areas. However, limited data on crop-specific water uses and water losses in the system, especially in developing and transition countries, prevent consistent diagnosis of issues in water systems. A modeling framework based on maximum entropy approach was implemented here to simultaneously assess water system structure and ‘water use-crop production’ relationships. The framework allowed for the analysis of long-term changes in conveyance efficiency, crop-specific water application, and irrigation water productivity between 1980 and 2021 in the Khorezm region in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. The results showed that conveyance losses were more than 30% in the system, and approximately 40% of the water allocated to the region went to rice and cotton production, indicating the possibility of water use reduction in these three areas. Conveyance efficiency and cotton water productivity improved in drier years in the region, owing to the wide implementation of temporary and low-cost drought management measures. The expected increase in the frequency and magnitude of droughts may require long-term investment-demanding strategies for drought management to enhance the sustainable livelihoods in the region.

Should time-lag and time-accumulation effects of climate be considered in attribution of vegetation dynamics? Case study of China's temperate grassland region.

Although the time-lag and time-accumulation effects (TLTAEs) of climatic factors on vegetation growth have been investigated extensively, the uncertainties caused by disregarding TLTAEs in the attribution analysis of long-term changes in vegetation remain unclear. This hinders our understanding of the associated changes in ecosystems and the effects of climate change. In this study, using multiple methods, we evaluate the biases of attribution analyses of vegetation dynamics caused by the non-consideration of TLTAEs in the temperate grassland region (TGR) of China from 2000 to 2019. Based on the datasets of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), temperature (TMP), precipitation (PRE), and solar radiation (SR), the temporal reaction patterns of vegetation are analyzed, and the relationships among these variables under two scenarios (considering and disregarding TLTAEs) are compared. The results indicate that most areas of the TGR show a greening trend. A time-lag or time-accumulation effect of the three climatic variables is observed in most areas with significant spatial differences. The lagged times of the vegetation response to PRE are particularly prominent, with an average of 2.12 months in the TGR. When the TLTAE is considered, the areas where changes in the NDVI are affected by climatic factors expanded significantly, whereas the explanatory power of climate change on NDVI change increased by an average of 9.3% in the TGR; these improvements are more prominent in relatively arid areas. This study highlights the importance of including TLTAEs in the attribution of vegetation dynamics and the assessment of climatic effects on ecosystems.

Identification and analysis of long-term changes in river deltas and riparian zones using time-series multispectral data

Today’s remote sensing data and technologies offer the capability to effectively monitor diverse and challenging environments around the world, such as coastal river and riparian zones. Coastal riparian zones and river deltas usually demonstrate extreme coastline changes in terms of the extent of water coverage of inland territories due to flood events, low and high tides, the climate, specific environmental characteristics, etc. In this paper, we exploit freely available multispectral time series data for previous decades, utilizing Landsat missions in order to develop an open-source-based image processing pipeline for the extraction of the actual yearly average coastline status of riparian river delta areas. The latter present significant temporal coastline changes between years, semesters, and months. Average mean maps are generated and then compared to several temporal levels in order to distinguish long-term significant changes and ecosystem threats. Additionally, a custom long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is deployed to forecast the evolution of the coastline by exploiting the average value for each pixel across all available images as a training sample and producing a forecast output for the next period. The network achieves accuracy scores of 89.77% over 'non-water' depicting pixels and 84.26% over 'water' depicting pixels, for regions that present frequent changes between land and water coverage over time. The predicted map presents high statistical agreement with the respective average map generated in two different validation approaches, with kappa coefficients of 85.9% and 91.4%, respectively.

Rate of change in longitudinal EMG indicates time course of an individual's neuromuscular adaptation in resistance-based muscle training.

An individual's long-term neuromuscular adaptation can be measured through time-domain analyses of surface electromyograms (EMG) in regular resistance-based training. The perceived changes in recruitment, such as those measured during muscle fatigue, can subsequently prolong the recovery time in rehabilitation applications. Thus, by developing quantifiable methods for measuring neuromuscular adaptation, adjuvant treatments applied during neurorehabilitation can be improved to reduce recovery times and to increase patient quality of care. This study demonstrates a novel time-domain analysis of long-term changes in EMG captured neuromuscular activity that we aim to use to develop a quantified performance metric for muscle-based intervention training and optimization of an individual. We measure EMG of endurance and hypertrophy-based resistance exercises of healthy participants over 100 days to identify trends in long-term neuromuscular adaptation. Particularly, we show that the rate of EMG amplitude increase (motor recruitment) is dependent on the training modality of an individual. Particularly, EMG decreases over time with repetitive training - but the rate of decrease is different in hypertrophy, endurance, and control exercises. We found that the EMG peak contraction decreases across all subjects, on average, by 8.23 dB during hypertrophy exercise and 10.09 dB for endurance exercises over 100 days of training, while control participants showed negligible change. This represents approximately 2 dB difference EMG activity when comparing endurance and hypertrophy exercises, and >8 dB change when comparing to our control cases. As such, we show that the slope of the long-term EMG activity is related to the resistance-based exercise. We believe this can be used to identify person-specific performance metrics, and to create optimized interventions using a measured performance baseline of an individual.

Big changes in backyard birds: An analysis of long-term changes in bird communities in Australia's most populous urban regions

Urban environments are increasingly acknowledged as a priority for biodiversity conservation. Birds in particular are capable of persisting, and sometimes thriving, in cities and towns globally. However, the process of urbanization results in the loss of many bird species due to the resulting changes in habitat conditions. Urban expansion and densification present a threat to both urban bird biodiversity and bird conservation more broadly. Australian urban areas, including suburban and peri-urban areas, currently support moderate bird species richness, but the rapidly changing urban landscape threatens these communities. Unfortunately, many bird species' population trends are not actively studied, resulting in a poor understanding of species persistence in urban environments. Here, we used bird survey data from long-running citizen science databases in a Bayesian List Length Analysis to determine changes in bird species prevalence (the probability of observing a species in a given survey event) over time in Australia's four most populous urban regions. We found that introduced species, historically prominent in Australian urban bird communities, are decreasing in prevalence in all four regions, while a small group of native urban exploiters are becoming more prevalent. Our results also show that many species perceived to be “iconic” or “common” are experiencing declines in prevalence in urban areas, highlighting the importance of monitoring and conservation action in urban areas.

Long-term trend of surface relative humidity in Hungary

The long-term trends of relative humidity and its relationship with the long-term change of temperature are some of the unsolved problems of climate research. In this paper, the results of the analysis of long-term changes (1961–2020) in relative humidity and temperature in Hungary are presented. Homogenized station data series were used to perform the analyses. While warming was significant in each season, a significant reduction of relative humidity was observed only in spring and summer. The seasonal variability in the dependence of the change of relative humidity on the change of temperature indicates that the change of temperature directly impacts the change of relative humidity in summer, and the enhancement of evaporation due to the increase of temperature may mitigate the impact of warming in other seasons. Homogenized datasets were used to study the daily variation of the long-term trend of relative humidity. Significant reduction was found at noon in each season, except for autumn. However, the reduction was more scattered during the night, depending on the season and/or the geographical location of the station. The relationship between the surface data and data observed by radio sounding (00 UTC and 12 UTC in time period of 2007–2018) was studied to predict the long-term trends of relative humidity in the lower, 100-m deep layer of planetary boundary layer from the trend of surface relative humidity. The results suggest that this prediction can be reasonable only if daytime trends are considered.

Data-driven approach for 2D shoreline, and 3D volumetric change detection analysis: a case study for Jupiter inlet lighthouse outstanding natural area

Coastal areas are constantly changing and are influenced by a variety of variables, including environmental, ecological, geological, and anthropological factors. The plethora of coastal change has created substantial challenges for coastal land infrastructures, animal habitat, vegetation conservation, and monitoring. It is important to track these changes, monitor, predict, and preserve the future of coastal areas. Shoreline mapping has mostly concentrated on two-dimensional (2D) distance changes along the coast due to the lack of coastal elevational data and the precise information required to construct the three-dimensional (3D) surface. Modern technology has covered the gaps by developing a range of sensors and algorithms for data analysis on 3D coastal erosion and accretion changes throughout the beach topography, which has become crucial. The ultimate goal is to develop a cost-effective mapping procedure for an area that includes a high-resolution mapping system that abstracts evidence of coastal areas for long-term 2D change rates from 1953 to 2020 and short-term 3D volumetric changes of sand erosion and accretion rates from 2018 to 2020. This would be accomplished through Unmanned Aircraft Systems Mapping, which employs digital photogrammetry principles including comprehensive geospatial information systems spatial data and linear regression analysis to investigate massive quantities of data. The feasibility of this methodology was applied to the Jupiter Inlet Lighthouse Outstanding Natural Area in Jupiter, Florida, a study coastal area that had receded almost 27 m in the last 67 years. The outcomes of a short-term coastal analysis quantify the amount of soil erosion and accretion that occurred along the shore over two years as a result of rising sea levels. The long-term change analysis indicates how much sand was eroded each year as a result of several variables affecting shoreline changes, which will help the land management team in developing new sustainable policies for future coastal environmental conservation.

Forty Years of Air Temperature Change over Iran Reveals Linear and Nonlinear Warming

Spatiotemporal analysis of long-term changes in air temperature is of prime importance for climate change research and the development of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Although there are considerable studies on air temperature change across the globe, most of them have been on linear trends and time series analysis of nonlinear trends have not received enough attention. Here, spatiotemporal patterns of monthly and annual mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax), and minimum (Tmin) air temperature at 47 synoptic stations across climate zones in Iran for a 40-yr period (1978–2017) are analyzed. A polynomial fitting scheme (Polytrend) is used to both monthly and annual air temperature data to detect trends and classify them into linear and nonlinear (quadratic and cubic) categories. The significant (non-significant) trends in Tmean, Tmax, and Tmin across all climate zones are 41.1% (58.9%), 34.1% (65.9%), and 46% (54%), respectively. The highest magnitude of increasing trends is observed in the annual Tmin (0.47°C decade−1) and the lowest magnitude is for the annual Tmax (0.4°C decade−1). Across the country, increasing trends (bar x = 37.2% ) have higher spatial coverage than the decreasing trends (bar x = 3.2% ). Warming trends in Tmean (65.3%) and Tmin (73.1%) are mainly observed in humid climate zone while warming trends in Tmax are in semi-arid (43.9%) and arid (34.1%) climates. Linear change with a positive trend is predominant in all Tmean (56.7%), Tmax (67.8%), and Tmin (71.2%) and for both monthly and annual data. Further, the linear trends have the highest warming rate in annual Tmin (0.83°C decade−1) and Tmean (0.46°C decade−1) whereas the nonlinear trends have the highest warming rate in annual Tmax (0.52°C decade−1). The linear trend type is predominant across the country especially in humid climate zones whereas the nonlinear trends (quadratic and cubic) are mainly observed in the arid climate zones. This study highlights nonlinear changes and spatiotemporal trends in air temperature in Iran and contributes to a growing body of climate change literature that is necessary for the development of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies in the Middle East.

Analysis of Long-Term Change in the Thermal Resistance of Extruded Insulation Materials through Accelerated Tests

Two experiments were executed to examine the slice accelerated test method, suggested in ISO 11561 “Ageing of thermal insulation materials—Determination of the long-term change in thermal resistance of closed-cell plastics (accelerated laboratory test methods)” and to observe the changes in the thermal performance of insulation material over time by the real-time ageing process. The accelerated test method was conducted for 120 consecutive days using 10 mm thick-sliced specimens, which were sampled from a 50 mm thick plate body. The real-time ageing process was performed for 5000 consecutive days under constant temperature and relative humidity conditions as of 20 ± 5 °C and 50 ± 5% without any slicing. Degradation of thermal performance was shown to be stabilized at around 38 to 41% down from the initial values, which were correspondent with the approximately 10 days after the initial time. The real-time ageing process revealed similar degradation levels at around 130 days after the starting point. Converting the results using the scaling method specified in ISO 11561, the change was found in the range of 37 to 41% for the thermal resistance after 25 years and of 30 to 38% for the 25-year-average thermal resistance, respectively. Within the 10% error range, both the accelerated method and real-time ageing resulted in a similar level of degradation. Consequently, it was our observation that the slice accelerated test was quite enough to predict the practical degradation of insulation materials with at least 90% of accuracy under the specified time duration, temperature and thickness satisfactions.

Analysis of long-term changes in inundation characteristics of near-natural temperate riparian habitats in the Lower Basin of the Biebrza Valley, Poland

Study regionNortheast Poland, Biebrza Basin. Study focusStudying reference ecosystems and their specific features provides information to be used as background principles for ecosystem management. In the case of riparian wetlands, these are hydrological indicators (such as average water levels, flooding extents and flood duration) that are either used as criteria for ecosystem conservation or remain easy-to-measure targets for habitat restoration. We focused on revealing whether any trends in flood extents and durations of inundation exist within near-natural temperate floodplains persisting under the natural lowland river flow regime. We analysed whether the fraction of inundation time in a year (FIT) changed over time. River discharge data from 1951 to 2011 applied as boundary conditions in a 1D hydrodynamic model were used to generate flood extents and durations in the Lower Basin of the Biebrza Valley. New hydrological insights for the regionWe found no substantial trends in flood extents and flood durations in both time-dependent mean and standard deviation. We revealed that the average, long-term values of the FIT, influencing the persistence of Caricetum approprinquatae, Caricetum gracilis, Glycerietum maximae and Phragmitetum communis, reached, respectively, 0.33, 0.43, 0.49 and 0.53 and did not present trends. Variability of the FIT within particular plant communities was high. The main challenges in conservation of temperate riparian wetlands are likely related to appropriate management addressing nonlinear climatic pressures.

Бессточные Торейские озера: можно ли дать прогноз изменений гидрологического режима?

A model of the water balance of Torey Lakes is proposed. The model is based on the integration of satellite data for 1989-2020 and ground-based observation data for the period of 1965- 2018. The analysis of long-term changes in the water level in the lakes revealed its cyclicity. A possible change in the level of Torey Lakes is estimated taking into account the impact of the construction of a hydraulic structure on the transboundary Ul’dza River. Variants of the planned development of water use in the Mongolian part of the catchment area in the form of the water inflow reduction by 10 and 20% are considered. The water balance model is used to demonstrate a possible negative impact of inflow variations on the hydrological regime of the lakes.

Epidemiological aspects of central serous chorioretinopathy

Aim. To analyze the incidence of central serous chorioretinopathy among the Kazans population between 2009 and 2018.
 Methods. A descriptive epidemiological study of the incidence of Central serous chorioretinopathy of the population of Kazan between 2009 and 2018 was conducted. It included an analysis of long-term changes in the incidence of male and female population and an assessment of the structure of morbidity by sex for the entire period and in dynamics. Testing for differences was performed using the nonparametric MannWhitney U test and Chi-square test with Yates correction.
 Results. 831 new cases of central serous chorioretinopathy were registered in Kazan during 20092018, the ratio of men and women was approximately 1:1. In the dynamics of morbidity, the proportion of men increased from 24.2% in 2009 to 60.7% in 2018 (р=0.000002), while the proportion of women decreased from 75.8% in 2009 to 39.3% in 2018 (р=0.000002). The long-term dynamics for 20092018 is characterized by a statistically significant increase in the incidence rate of central serous chorioretinopathy in men (p=0.004) from 3.2 per 100 000 in 2009 to 14.8 per 100 000 in 2018. During the study period, the incidence rate in women remains at the same level, varying from 5.4 per 100 000 to 8 per 100 000 (p=0.663). Men are more likely to have central serous chorioretinopathy at a younger age (р=0.0001). The median age at the time of diagnosis in women was 55 years (Q25Q75 4565 years), in men 45 years (Q25Q75 3756 years).
 Conclusion. From 2009 to 2018, the incidence rate of central serous chorioretinopathy among men in Kazan significantly increased in both intensive (p=0.004) and extensive indicators (p=0.000002); сentral serous chorioretinopathy in men develops at an earlier age compared with women (median age of women at the time of diagnosis was 55 years, median age of men 45 years, p=0.0001).

Indication of long-term changes in the vegetation of abandoned agricultural lands for the forest-steppe zone using NDVI time series

The paper presents results of the analysis of long-term changes in the vegetation cover of abandoned agricultural lands in the forest-steppe zone of the Central Chernozem Region using time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which are measured using MOD13Q1 data. The vegetation index dynamics linked with the proportion of forest communities formed on the abandoned agricultural lands is investigated. The index values for the period of mid-August are the most informative for analyzing the share of forest communities growing on the abandoned agricultural land. Abandoned agricultural lands with coniferous forests have a higher correlation with NDVI than fallows with deciduous species. In the period 2000-2018, for all types of abandoned arable lands, the presence of a positive statistically significant trend component of the vegetation index long-term series is established. Using a slope angle coefficient of the NDVI trend line, a spatio-temporal analysis of the rate of formation of forest stands in the forest-steppe fallows at the beginning of the XXI century was carried out. Features of this process are studied.

A Retrospective Analysis of Long-Term Changes of Inflammatory Biomarkers in Individuals on Suppressive Three-Drug or Two-Drug Antiretroviral Regimens

A Retrospective Analysis of Long-Term Changes of Inflammatory Biomarkers in Individuals on Suppressive Three-Drug or Two-Drug Antiretroviral Regimens

Analysis of Long-Term Changes in Anoxic Zones in the Mozhaisk Reservoir Based on Model Calculations

The results of model calculations of the characteristics of anoxic zones in the Mozhaisk Reservoir over a 57-year period have been analyzed. A two-dimensional box hydrological model of the reservoir has been used to calculate variations of the values of ecological variables with a daily time step. The main regularities in the formation and development of anoxic conditions in different parts of the reservoir have been revealed. The factors that govern the space and time distribution of anoxic zones in the reservoir in different years have been identified. Empirical dependences of the volumes of anoxic zones on the characteristics of water mass stability in the reservoir and blooming index, which characterizes the rate of primary production in reservoir ecosystem, have been obtained. The identified trends toward an increase in anoxic zone volumes over the period under consideration characterize the progressive eutrophication of the Mozhaisk Reservoir.