Econometric Model Analysis Research Articles

Impact of greenhouse gas emission, renewable energy, and economic growth on health expenditure in Southeast Asia: A comparative analysis of econometric models

Purpose — The study explores the effects of greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, and economic growth on health expenditures across Southeast Asia while comparing the performance of different econometric models for accuracy in analysis.Method — To analyze the relationships among variables, the study employs three econometric models, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model, the co-integration Model, and the Quantile Regression Model, using annual data from 2000 to 2020.Findings — The results reveal that greenhouse gas emissions and GDP significantly influence health expenditure in all three models. However, the significance of renewable energy consumption varies, with only the quantile regression model indicating a significant relationship with health expenditure. Model comparison based on Mean Squared Error (MSE) suggests that the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model provides the most accurate predictions. Also, it found that there is a short-run and long-run causal effect of GHG and GDP on health expenditure, as well as health spending on GDP.Implication — This study helps to understand how economic growth, environmental factors, and healthcare spending interact to develop sustainable policies to address health and environmental problems in Southeast Asia.Originality — This research contributes to the body of knowledge examining the impact of economic and environmental factors on health expenditures in Southeast Asia through a comparative analysis of different econometric models.

Simulation of smallholder farmers’ adaptation to irrigation-induced landslides: An ABM application in human-land-policy interaction

Understanding the dynamic interaction between smallholder farmers' adaptation decision-making behavior and the policy environment in the context of human-induced disasters is vital for developing effective policies to enhance farmers' participation in disaster risk reduction (DRR). From the perspective of bounded rationality theory, this study constructs the farmer-land-policy interaction (FLPI) model, taking Heifangtai in Loess Plateau, China, as a case study. Based on first-hand micro data, this study combines static econometric model analysis with dynamic simulation techniques, achieving a combination of micro decision-making and macro policies to understand the interaction between farmers and the policy environment. The FLPI model simulates farmers' future adaptations under multiple policy scenarios (baseline, mandatory policy, and subsidy policy scenario with a combination of different policy tools) from 2021 to 2030. Compared with the simulation results of the baseline scenario, the results indicate that mandatory and subsidy policies are effective interventions incentivizing farmers’ adaptation behavior for effective DRR. Mandatory policies rely on policy intervention to ensure that farmers adopt drip irrigation and to promote the generation of long-term behavior of farmers. And the results also propose a suitable subsidy range of 700–900 yuan and with a period of more than 2 years for subsidy policy. This study enriches the research on the interaction simulation between farmer behavior and policy environment under the background of human-induced disasters. And the FLPI model uses survey data as input, which could provide behavior rules closer to real situations than that of simplifying assumptions. The research indicates that the “bottom-up” approach of the FLPI model proven more appropriate to presenting micro-level adaptation and dynamic changes than traditional statistical models.And the agent-based model is very suitable for simulating the behavioral decision-making changes of farmers in policy environments.

Research on Innovative Development of Urban Low-carbon Technology and Green Economy

This paper focuses on analyzing the effects and mechanisms of green fiscal expenditure policies on low-carbon technology innovation. This section selects pilot cities with comprehensive demonstration of energy conservation and emission reduction fiscal policies as typical green fiscal expenditure policies from the city level, focusing on green fiscal expenditure.On this basis, this paper conducts econometric model analysis on the estimated coefficients of the benchmark regression, confirms the robustness of the benchmark regression results, and finds through heterogeneity analysis that the effect of the demonstration policy in promoting low-carbon technology innovation is more significant in non-resource-based cities and non-old industrial base cities.

Agriculture-livestock-forestry nexus and household income diversification: Experiences from selected villages of West Bengal, India

CONTEXTThe COVID-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to the livelihoods of rural households, especially in developing countries. The reverse migrated workers faced the most economic crisis. They have created additional pressure on local resources and opportunities to maintain their livelihood. In this connection the agriculture-livestock-forestry nexus plays a significant role by providing them livelihood opportunities. OBJECTIVESThis paper attempts to understand the resource use patterns during the post-COVID period, and analyse the impact of agriculture-livestock-forest nexus on household income diversification and poverty reduction. METHODSThe present study uses a novel approach to fulfil the objectives of the study. A well-designed survey was conducted to collect the necessary primary data from sixteen sample villages of West Bengal, India. The scientific design of the survey and data collection procedure is maintained. Moreover, geospatial techniques are used to examine the land use and land cover patterns of the study areas. The econometric models are estimated to inspect the role of agriculture-livestock-forest nexus and household characteristics on household level income diversification and the reduction of poverty. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSOur analysis reveals that a significant number of the sample households depend on agriculture, livestock and forestry to maintain their livelihoods. The reverse migration of workforce has created additional pressure on these activities. This is mainly due to non-availability of other non-farm employment opportunities locally. The analysis of econometric models shows that while engagement in different activities of the primary sector makes income diversified, it is more so when the households possess necessary technologies, skills and financial supports. All of these are crucial given that income diversification helps households to overcome of poverty. SIGNIFICANCEThe intricate web of the agriculture-livestock-forestry nexus serves as a critical source of livelihood for a substantial number of households, yet the challenges and opportunities it presents necessitate targeted policy interventions. Enabling technology transfer, fostering skill development, and extending financial support emerge as key measures to diversify rural livelihoods, thereby fostering sustainable rural development and poverty reduction in the post-pandemic landscape. The integration of socioeconomic data and geospatial satellite information offers an invaluable basis for formulating effective policy strategies in this evolving era.

How the land use/cover changes and environmental factors at different scales affect lake water quality in arid and semi-arid regions

The quantitative relationship between land use/cover change (LUCC) within basins, lake water environmental factors, and water quality has long been a popular research area. In this study, we investigated three typical basins (Ulansuhai Basin, Daihai Basin, and Dalinor Basin) in arid and semi-arid areas of China. The assessment was based on the China Land Cover Dataset (CLCD), which was used to calculate the land use dynamic degree index and Markov transfer matrix. Moreover, an econometric analysis model and a hybrid evolutionary algorithm (HEA) model were used to explore the quantitative relationship between LUCC and environmental factors on the lake water quality. The results showed that the LUCC of the three lake basins was dominated by cultivated land and grassland over the past 20 years. In all of the basins, grassland and water area were converted into cultivated land, water area decreased to varying degrees, and impervious surface area increased continuously. Moreover, the concentration of TN and TP were generally proportional to chemical oxygen demand concentration (COD), biochemical oxygen demand concentration (BOD5), and dissolved oxygen concentration (DO), but inversely proportional to water depth and transparency; the relationship between Nutrient concentration and pH was usually related to the ecological threshold. On the basin scale, the grassland and forestland played positive roles in improving water quality, while cultivated land and impervious surface were the main factors contributing to water pollution. Overall, this study provides a scientific theoretical basis for the rational utilization of land resources, improvement of lake water quality, and ecological protection of typical lake basins in arid and semi-arid regions.

Is a picture worth a thousand words? Understanding the role of review photo sentiment and text-photo sentiment disparity using deep learning algorithms

Images have become integral to consumers' sharing of consumption experiences due to their abilities of carrying rich and vivid information. This study investigates the impacts of restaurant review photo sentiment on customers’ perceived review usefulness and enjoyment using deep learning and econometric model analysis. The results indicate that (1) reviews with photos are more useful and enjoyable than reviews without photos; (2) a U-shaped relationship exists between review photo sentiment and review usefulness, with the effect of review photo sentiment on review enjoyment being positive and linear. Moreover, the effects can be strengthened by the number of review photos while weakened by the text-photo sentiment disparity. The above findings are reinforced by a sample of restaurant online reviews written by tourists in Las Vegas. This study contributes to the electronic word-of-mouth literature as well as to the application of machine learning technologies in computer vision to tourism and hospitality research.

Analysis of the Effect of Simplified Profit Tax on SMEs at the Level of Factual Budgeted Revenues in Albania

Small and medium enterprises are very important part of Albanian Economy, they represent almost 99% of Albanian registered enterprises and generate more than 80% of jobs in the labour market. They also contribute 60-75% of Gross Domestic Product. SME-s are key elements of the Albanian economy. This study tries to investigate the effects of changes in fiscal policies to SMEs in Albania, which is also the reason why this topic is of interest to many researchers. If we compare Albania’s number of SMEs with other countries that stand for the same level of economic development, they are almost at the same level. Moreover, turnover and the number of employees have increased for SMEs, while revenues collected from this tax have decreased. The study tends to explain how the simplified corporate profit tax rate affects budget revenues, its impact and the changes over the years. We use secondary data to analyze periods from the year 2000 to the year 2019. Also, to analyze if the simplified profit tax is important or statistically significant and it has an effect on the budget revenues, we use an econometric regression model. In a conclusion, this study will also show the government measures during the post-Covid-19 period taken for SMEs. Besides conclusions, we give our recommendations based on our econometric model analysis.

Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 terhadap Pengangguran, Kemiskinan dan Ketimpangan Pendapatan: Bukti Data Panel di Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on unemployment, poverty, and income inequality in Indonesia. Using panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia for the period of 2018.S1-2020.S2, the econometric analysis model applied is panel regression with dummy variables. The study discovered that the Covid-19 pandemic significantly impacts increasing urban poverty and unemployment rates, but not significantly on rural poverty. Using time-series data during the period, it turns out that this pandemic has improved the distribution of income in the community, both in urban and rural areas.

Spatial characteristics and factors that influence the environmental efficiency of public buildings in China

The rapid development of the tertiary industry has enabled energy consumption by public buildings the fastest growing branch of China's construction industry. The operating stage has the biggest share in the perspective of whole life cycle analyses. To conserve energy and reduce emissions is a critical issue for the public building sector. This study employs the non-radial directional distance function and data envelopment analysis methods to estimate the environmental efficiency of the public building industries in 30 provincial administrative regions between 2010 and 2017. And the Moran index is used to explore its spatial distribution characteristics. Finally, the factors affecting environmental efficiency are analyzed using a spatial econometric model analysis. The results indicated that the environmental efficiency for the public building industries across China were generally low, whereas their spatial characteristics were high in the east and low in the west, and high in the south and low in the north. There are several kinds of measures that can promote environmental efficiency, such as increasing the proportion of tertiary industry, promoting gross domestic product per capita growth, increasing the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption, and attracting foreign direct investment. However, the increases in urban population may decrease environmental efficiency. Nevertheless, an obvious spatial spillover effect exists in the environmental efficiency of the public building sector.

Mothers' Acceptance and Willingness to Pay an Out-of-Pocket Payment for Maternal and Child Nutritional Services in Northwest Ethiopia.

BackgroundAround $3.5 trillion globally and up to $2.78 billion in Ethiopia, losses are reported annually due to malnutrition. Even if in Ethiopia nutrition services are delivered free of charge, specific public health programs may start to charge users of services that include maternal and child health services. Therefore, this study was aimed to assess mothers’ willingness to pay an out-of-pocket payment for maternal and child nutritional services and associated factors in Northwest Ethiopia.MethodsA community-based cross-sectional study design was conducted at Yilmana Densa district from March to May 2017. The sample size was 569, and a systematic random sampling technique was used. Bi-variate, multivariable logistic regression, and Tobit econometric analysis models were done. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and B-coefficient with 95% confidence interval (CI) and p-value were used.ResultsA total of 545 (response rate of 95.8%) study participants were included in the study. The finding indicates that 88.8% of households were willing to pay for maternal and child nutrition services. The average amount of money to pay per visit was 19.6 ETB (CI = 18.8, 20.4) (0.84 USD). Mothers with good knowledge, good perceived family health status, medium and high perceived quality of services, and satisfaction with maternal and child nutritional services were significant variables to accept an out-of-pocket payment. In addition, the Tobit econometric model analysis reveals that knowledge, mothers’ age, pregnancy status, mothers’ educational status, wealth status, and self-reported satisfaction were identified as significant factors.ConclusionThe majority of mothers were willing to accept out-of-pocket payments for maternal and child nutritional services with an average of 19.6 ETB. Therefore, strengthening awareness and improving the quality of nutritional services and maternal satisfaction may increase mothers’ willingness to pay an out-of-pocket payment.

What determines Enset (Ensete ventricosum) production and its contribution to household income? Empirical evidence from Ethiopia

Enset production in Ethiopia is seemingly limited to only consumption-based production and most of producers supplied small amounts of products to the market. This study was conducted with main objective of assessing factors affecting market participation of enset producers in Chena district in southwestern Ethiopia. Two-stage sampling technique was employed to select 101 representative enset producer households. Both primary and secondary data sources were used to gather necessary data for attaining specific objectives of the study. Both descriptive statistics and econometric model were used to analyze the collected data. A Heckman two stage model was employed to analyze the factors affecting households’ decision in market participation in sale of enset products and the amount of gross income earned. Econometric model analysis result showed that; sex of household head, education level, livestock owned, a distance from nearest market center, enset plantation size, and transport access were found to be significant in affecting the probability of market participation decision. In addition, education level, family size, distance from market center, enset plantation, and transport access affected the amount of gross income earned from sale of different enset products. The result suggests the need for stakeholders’ involvement to enable market-oriented production of crop to encourage farmers for better crop production and market supply to have increased amount of income and proper utilization of the crop.
 Int. J. Agril. Res. Innov. Tech. 11(1): 17-25, June 2021

Changes in Energy Consumption Based on Empirical Analysis of Econometric Models

Changes in Energy Consumption Based on Empirical Analysis of Econometric Models

The impact of smoking on annual healthcare cost: an econometric model analysis in China, 2015

BackgroundSmoking exerts substantial medical burdens on society. Precise estimation of the smoking-attributable medical expenditures (SAME) helps to inform tobacco control policy makers. Based on the epidemiological approach, prior studies in China only focused on a few smoking-related diseases to estimate SAME. In contrast, this study used the econometric approach, which is capable of capturing all of the potential costs.MethodsThree waves of panel data from the 2011–2015 national China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were used. A total of 34,503 observations aged 45 and above were identified. Estimates from econometric models were combined to predict the smoking-attributable fraction (SAF) and medical expenditures attributable to smoking by sex, registered residency and healthcare service categories. All monetary amounts were adjusted to 2015 dollars.ResultsIn 2015, the overall smoking-attributable fraction (SAF) of China was 10.97%, ranging from 5.77% for self-medication to 16.87% for inpatient visits. The smoking-attributable medical expenditure (SAME) was about $45.28 billion, accounting for 7.24% of the total health expenditure. The SAME was $226.77 per smoker aged 45 and above. The regression results suggest that being a former smoker has the greatest impact, which decreases over time after quitting however, on the value of medical expenditures.ConclusionsSmoking-attributable medical expenditures was substantial and placed a heavy burden on Chinese society. Comprehensive tobacco control policies and regulations are still needed to promote progress toward curbing the tobacco related losses.

ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE LEVEL OF MOTIVATION IN AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES

Introduction. To date, the high turnover of staff, their aging and declining productivity in enterprises of the agricultural sector of the economy are studied. There is a need to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of the existing system of intangible incentives in terms of its importance to stabilize personnel policy, as well as identify areas for improvement of this system, offer tools for diagnosing staff motivation, build an econometric model, substantiate recommendations for improving intangible resources. Purpose. The aim of the article is to analyze publications that consider methods of motivating personnel of enterprises, the use of mathematical apparatus to calculate the integrated assessment of motivation of personnel of enterprises, construction and analysis of econometric model of intangible methods of motivating labor resources of agricultural enterprises of Dnepropetrovsk region. Method (methodology). The article uses the results of a survey of employees of agro-industrial enterprises; methods of correlation-regression analysis are used for the calculation of results as one of the main methods of scientific research; methods of mathematical modeling. Results. An econometric multifactor regression model of the indicator of integrated assessment of labor resources motivation of agro-industrial enterprises is constructed as a result of the research. There is a direct relationship between the state of the indicator and the assessments of employees on the components of intangible methods of motivation. The results of the calculations allowed us to conclude: an increase in the assessment of employees on the possibility of professional training by 1 point indicates an increase in the integrated assessment of the indicator by 0.998; the rise of the assessment of the possibility of career growth by 1 point enlarges the integrated assessment on 0.846; an increase in the score on the provision of soft loans by 1 point provides the going up in the integrated score by 0.587; increasing the assessment by the method of leisure incentives leads to the grow of the integrated assessment by 0.518; the rising assessment of employees for the provision of discounted meals by 1 point increases the integrated estimation by 0.605; increasing the scores on transport support and the possibility of recovery at the expense of the company by 1 point also brings up the integrated score by 0.471 and 0.603, respectively. The calculated correlation coefficients between each of the factors and the integrated indicator demonstrate a significant correlation and the influence of each factor on the integrated indicator. In this regard, it is necessary to continue to apply the methods of mathematical modeling, which allow to estimate not only the level of motivation, but also to develop and implement an effective mechanism for further development of labor resources in agricultural enterprises.

The Influence of Technological Innovation on the Profitability of Enterprises

This paper studies whether the investment intensity of R&D expenses of listed companies can improve the profitability of enterprises. The data indicators of listed companies from 2015 to 2017 are obtained by using CSMAR database. R&D investment is divided into two indicators: relative number index and absolute number index, and regression analysis is carried out by establishing the econometric analysis model of profitability and absolute number index and relative number index of R&D investment. It is found that the intensity of R&D investment has a positive effect on the profitability of enterprises. Therefore, enterprises can improve their profitability through technological innovation and increasing R&D investment.

Impact of Covid-19 containment on community pharmaceutical spending in Andalusia - Spain.

Background:In the field of health, the year 2020 will be remembered for testing (stressing) all health institutions and their forms of management (centralised and decentralised). The everyday activity of primary and hospital care was significantly altered by the introduction of telephone consultations, which reduce the number of visits to health centres or hospitals and are still relevant today in the face of successive waves of the pandemic.Objective:To analyse whether population confinement due to the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on the dispensing of medications in community pharmacies and the associated spending during the period March-July 2020 in Andalusia (Spain).Methods:A time series analysis applying econometric model analysis techniques to confirm or rule out whether the lockdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on the dispensing of medications by community pharmacies and the associated expenditures. The variables used were the number of medication containers dispensed by community pharmacies (charged to the public funds of the Spanish National Health System) and the expenditure on prescription drugs, both in relation to the population. The analysis was performed within the region of Andalusia, which has 8,464,441 inhabitants.Results:The data obtained from the time series confirmed that there were no significant differences during the studied period between the number of medication containers actually dispensed and the number that would have been expected to be dispensed according to the trend in this variable for the sample period. The expenditure results followed the same pattern.Conclusions:The health crisis produced by the COVID-19 lockdown had no impact on medication consumption in Andalusia.

HUBUNGAN DINAMIS VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DAN PERTUMBUHAN SUKUK NEGARA, PENDEKATAN: ERROR CORECTION MODEL

This study aims to examine the effect of PBD, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Profit Sharing Sharia Deposits, World Oil Prices, SBIS on the growth of state sukuk. Sukuk is one of the important instruments in financing fiscal deficits. So far, tax and non-tax state revenues have not been able to finance all government spending. Government expenditure is intended to encourage economic growth and equitable distribution of public income. However, spending in 2020 is more aimed at handling Covid-19 that hit Indonesia, especially on health programs and social security. This study uses secondary data in the form of monthly time series (from January 2014 to December 2019). A number of variables are used to see the effect of balance in the short and long run between the independent variables and the dependent variable. Data obtained from government agencies, including: Financial Services Authority (OJK), Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and Directorate General of Debt Utilities Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia (DJPU). The econometric analysis model Error Correction Model (ECM) is used to see the effect between the two. From the research results obtained, GDP, BHDS and SBIS have a positive effect on the growth of Sukuk. While inflation and oil prices have a negative effect on the growth of sukuk. Keywords: Macroeconomic Variables, BHDS, SBIS, Sukuk Negara, ECM

Does the interplay between the personality traits of CEOs and CFOs influence corporate mergers and acquisitions intensity? An econometric analysis with machine learning-based constructs

Although the upper echelons theory posits that senior executives' personal characteristics influence firm performance, very few studies have examined the impact of the interplay between CEO and CFO characteristics on corporate activities. To fill this research gap, we propose an econometric analysis model to examine the interplay between the personality traits of CEOs and CFOs and corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) intensity. In particular, our econometric analysis model is empowered by novel personality constructs extracted using a state-of-the-art machine learning-based personality detector that automatically mines CEO/CFO personality traits from firms' earnings call transcripts. Based on historical M&A data of S&P 1500 firms, our econometric analysis reveals that the “openness” personality trait of CEOs is positively associated with corporate M&A intensity, while CEOs' “consciousness” and “neuroticism” personality traits are negatively associated with corporate M&A intensity. Moreover, the impacts of CEOs' “openness” and “consciousness” personality traits on corporate M&A intensity are more pronounced when CFOs have similar personality traits to those of CEOs.

Determinants of Child Labor and Schooling in Damot Gale Woreda, Wolaita Zone, Ethiopia

Child labor becomes a usual problem in developing countries to affect the schooling performances of most of children as they miss important lessons and fall behind academically. The objective of this study was to examine the determinant factors of child labor and schooling in Damot Gale Woreda, Wolaita Zone, Ethiopia. The study employed both primary and secondary data sources. Primary data was collected from 203 respondent households through interview schedules. Various documents were reviewed to collect the secondary data in order to supplement primary data. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to select the sampled households. Data was analyzed using both descriptive statistics and econometric model analysis. Multinomial logistic regression model result revealed that the relative probability of a child being in child labor is significantly and positively determined by factors such as sex of a child being male, having larger number of pre-school-aged children in the household, larger family size, holding larger farm size, owning large number of livestock, and travelling long distance to fetch pipe water but it is negatively affected by having larger number of school-aged children in the household and higher level of household head education. So, the researchers recommend Government and Non-governmental organizations to play an important role on creating awareness on issues like promoting adult education through formal and informal means, developing programs that target poor households for elimination of child labor and empowering their economic status, and strengthening of social programs that help in fighting against child labor. Keywords: Child labor, schooling, factors, Multinomial logistic model DOI: 10.7176/DCS/10-10-01 Publication date: October 31 st 2020

IDENTIFICATION OF A CYCLICAL COMPONENT IN THE\r\nSOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF AZERBAIJAN

Ponte Academic JournalOct 2020, Volume 76, Issue 10 ECONOMETRIC ANALYSISOF AZERBAIJAN\'S GDP USING SINGULAR SPECTRAL ANALYSIS (SSA)Author(s): Esmira AhmadovaJ. Ponte - Oct 2020 - Volume 76 - Issue 10 doi: 10.21506/j.ponte.2020.10.16 Abstract:This article focuses on a brief critical analysis of the theory of Singular Spectrum Analysis and the problem of distinguishing cyclic components from a general dynamics of economic situation. As a solution to this problem the asynchronous harmonic analysis algorithm based on spectrum analysis and decomposition filtering algorithm has been proposed. This research is based on fundamental works by foreign scientists and research workers. The aim of this research is to identify and evaluate the cyclic component and prospects of social and economic development of Azerbaijan based on the analysis of the most important GDP indicator. As a result of the research, several economic models have been designed and important cyclic dependencies have been identified. Also, an econometric analysis of models with relevant conclusions has been performed. Calculations and graphs have been made by free software, i.e. the statistical environment R, which is one of the most dynamically developing programs in its class. In the course of the study, the main parameters, general trends, seasonal and cyclical components of Azerbaijan's GDP for the period of 22 years, between 1997 to 2019 have been identified. The comprehensive econometric tests carried out during the research showed that the designed econometric models correspond to all basic ideas of econometric analysis including the conditions of specification, parameterization and verification, and prove to be reasonable for the real economic situation in the country. The findings of the research, with regard to their practical significance, can be successfully applied to analyse and predict the socio-economic development potential during the diversification of the economy of Azerbaijan. The results, suggestions and recommendations obtained in this research can be used in shortterm and mid-term planning of the main indicators of social and economic development of Azerbaijan. Download full text:Check if you have access through your login credentials or your institution Username Password