Analysis Of Development Scenarios Research Articles

Time to build a new practice of foresight for national economies? Ireland, and uncertain futures in forecasts and scenarios

PurposeThe literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.Design/methodology/approachThis study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.FindingsEconomic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.Research limitations/implicationsTo support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.Practical implicationsWhile European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.Social implicationsBuilding economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

Economic and financial consequences of war in Ukraine: analysis of development scenarios

Abstract The war affects the socio-economic state of Ukraine and is the cause of the deterioration of the economic situation of neighboring countries. Under such conditions, there is a need to carry out assessments of economic losses from the conduct of military operations and forecast the main economic indicators for the nearest period, taking into account the impact of the war. The purpose of the study is to calculate the losses to the economy, the destruction of residential facilities and critical infrastructure facilities in the first 100 days of the war, the assessment of the potential volume of the fall in GDP and the calculation of projected fiscal losses. The calculation of GDP reduction was based on the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank Group and the Government of Ukraine. The expected amount of GDP reduction is calculated using the GAP-analysis method, based on the forecasts made by these institutions in the prewar period, and the calculation of the level of GDP during the war. Based on the results of the conducted research, it was established that the economic losses from the war consist not only of the losses incurred and the reduction of GDP volumes, but also of the lost opportunities for development and unearned profits. In addition to the reduction in GDP, Ukraine’s losses are manifested in the increase in the level of public debt, the depreciation of the national currency, the reduction of gold and currency reserves, and the outflow of foreign direct investments3.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of integration processes of regional integration associations (on EU EXAMPLE, NAFTA, EAEP)

This article is devoted to the analysis of possible scenarios for the development of the leading regional integration associations: The European Union (EU), the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) based on the study of the export dynamics of the studied groups of countries. The choice of the designated integration associations is due to various stages of the integration processes of the studied groups of countries. As you know, the EU is the only integration association that has gone through all the stages of integration interaction. In turn, the peculiarity of NAFTA is that there is a gradual decrease in tariffs in the implementation of trade between the member countries (USA, Canada, Mexico). Note that the designated association does not regulate the trade of member countries with third countries. In turn, the EAEU is the youngest and most dynamically developing integration association. The novelty of the approach presented in the framework of this work lies in the proposed methodology for predicting the dynamics of export volumes of the studied groups of countries based on an assessment of the dynamics of the following macroeconomic indicators: GDP, PPP, inflation, and unemployment. The essence of the methodology presented in the framework of this work is as follows: at the first stage, the choice of macroeconomic indicators necessary for conducting the appropriate analysis is carried out. The next stage consists in forecasting the dynamics of the selected macroeconomic indicators for the period chosen by the authors using the growth curve models. The final stage in the framework of the presented methodology is the compilation of the corresponding regression equations using the indicated macroeconomic indicators. In turn, the result of the research carried out within the framework of this work is the analysis of development scenarios for each of the studied integration groups using the author’s methodology, which is based on a combination of the use of growth curve models and the method of regression analysis.

Qualitative scenario analysis of development of energy storage systems in Russia until 2035

A stationary energy storage boom is forecast for the next two decades, according to a report by the US consulting firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). BNEF analysts believe that energy storage around the world will grow exponentially, from a modest 9 GW / 17 GWh commissioned by 2018 to 1,095 GW / 2,850 GWh by 2040. Experts call the ongoing global changes a “contributory revolution”. The development of energy storage systems is related to trends in the energy sector, energy costs, political and environmental conditions in the world. Moreover, energy storage technologies can face both general and specific risks. The authors of the article took into account possible risks and carried out a qualitative scenario analysis of the development of energy storage systems in Russia in the future until 2035. The authors used a probability scale to avoid cognitive biases in the scenario assessment. The most likely scenario for the development of ESS today we consider the basic.

On a Strategy for the Development of Nuclear Power in Russia

The objectives of the development of reactor technologies for transitioning to two-component nuclear power with thermal and fast reactors as well as the issues arising in the analysis of development scenarios, including the uncertainty of the resource base and technical-economic performance, are discussed. It is shown that attempts to detail the structure of the nuclear power system in the second half of the 21st century do not yield unambiguous results, giving compelling reasons for strategic decisions. It is suggested that future work on strategic development be focused on the horizon periods of key decisions concerning the adoption of new reactor technologies.

Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to analysis of development scenarios for academic units

For many classes of problems it is difficult to make decisions, assessments or develop plans based on precise quantitative models. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) are a well-known tool for qualitative analysis of systems that uses a simple representation of knowledge in the form of a graph of concepts linked by causal relationships. Advantages of FCMs are the ease of gathering and representing knowledge and the simplicity of reasoning techniques, very close to neural networks. The paper gives results of experiments aiming at application of FCMs to analysis of development scenarios for research and teaching units. The analyzes were conducted for four representative classes of academic units: strong, medium, weak with a development potential and weak; their results are discussed and several observations related to reasoning with FCMs are made.

Design and analysis of development scenarios of social economic systems with the application of the operator graph apparatus

New theoretical results of the methodology elaboration for a scenario research on social economic systems are given. The principles and the problems of formal construction of synergistic and attractive scenarios, when a model of an object behavior is represented in the form of an operator directed graph, are described and formulated. A mathematical research on the scenario space is conducted, characteristic scenario regimes of the development of the system under study are given.