Analysis Multivariate Program Research Articles

Quantification of large uncertainties in fossil leaf paleoaltimetry

Estimates of paleoelevation potentially constrain geodynamic models of continental deformation and inform interpretations of landscape and climate evolution. One widely used, paleobotanical approach reconstructs paleoelevation from the difference in estimated atmospheric enthalpy between a known sea level and a targeted, coeval, elevated fossil floral site. Enthalpy is estimated using Climate‐Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP) on 31 leaf size and shape variables that have been calibrated in living forests. Errors related to CLAMP are significantly greater than often reported, and there are many sources of large potential error related to this method that are either difficult to quantify or unquantifiable and are thus not documented. Here, we quantify one significant bias, toward underestimation of leaf area in the CLAMP data set (∼50%), that affects all CLAMP climate estimates, including enthalpy. Crucially, errors in paleoelevation when the leaf size bias is included are in the range of ±2 km or more, at least 2 times the previous estimates, and exceeding the plausible paleoelevations of many fossil sites. Previously published paleoelevations derived from this technique are unlikely to be accurate either in magnitude or in estimated error.

Climatic reconstruction of two Pliocene floras from Mexico

The role that climate plays in influencing the physiognomy of modern and fossil plant communities is widely acknowledged and forms the basis for several palaeoclimate proxies. In this work, both univariate Leaf Margin Analysis and multivariate Climate/Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP) were used for the climatic reconstruction of two fossil localities of the Atotonilco El Grande Formation. Using the predominantly North American and Asian calibration data set PHYSG3BRC, supplemented with new African material, results from two sites, Los Banos (present position 20°18′18″N, 98°42′44.4″W) and Sanctorum (20°18′18.5″N and 98°46′52.2″W), indicate that during the Pliocene a mesothermal climate existed with mean annual temperatures between 12 and 22°C, with the most likely being approximately 15°C, and a mean annual temperature range of 21°C. A distinct seasonal variation in rainfall is evident with a mean annual relative humidity of 60–70%. Differences between the sites can be explained by differences in depositional regime and spatial heterogeneity in the predominantly Quercus-dominated woodland. The continuous subsequent uplift of the Sierra Madre Oriental, the resulting development of a rain shadow, and the eventual disappearance of a palaeolake appear to have caused a transition to the modern xerophytic shrub vegetation.