Amount Of Precipitable Water Research Articles

Drivers of seasonal rainfall variability over the Angolan and Namibian plateaus

AbstractSouthern Africa has been strongly affected by ongoing climate change in recent decades. Rainfall variability is modulated by regional patterns of moisture advection and convergence in the lower troposphere. Using reanalysis, ground and satellite‐based rainfall products and observations from 10 weather stations, we perform a synoptic and climatological analysis focussing on atmospheric circulation, moisture transport and their relationship with rainfall anomalies over the Angolan and Namibian Plateau region. Results clearly show that a stronger (weaker) Zambezi low level jet (LLJ) magnitudes are associated with above (below) normal rainfalls over the main Angolan and Namibian plateaus. With lower confidence, a stronger Limpopo LLJ may also lead to enhanced rainfall over Namibia and southeast Angola. The Zambezi LLJ moisture fluxes are moderately controlled by Mozambique Chanel Trough and Angola Low intensities, while the Limpopo LLJ intensities have very low influence from the Mozambique Chanel Trough and Angola Low, respectively. The Angola Low in its tropical phase is associated with deeper moisture convergence and stronger vertical velocities, leading to higher amounts of precipitable water within the air column, thus enhancing precipitation over the region. It is shown that the major moisture source of rainfall, which is advected to via the Zambezi LLJ, is the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Ocean plays a minor role. Given the current lack of observations and projected climate change, further research and investments are urgently needed in the region, for example, regarding the expansion of the surface data network.

Future Changes of Extreme Precipitation and Related Atmospheric Conditions in East Asia under Global Warming Projected in Large Ensemble Climate Prediction Data

Abstract Extreme precipitation is expected to pose a more severe threat to human society in the future. This work assessed the historical performance and future changes of extreme precipitation and related atmospheric conditions in a large ensemble climate prediction dataset, the database for Policy Decision-making for Future climate change (d4PDF), over East Asia. Compared with the TRMM and ERA5 datasets, the historical climate in d4PDF represents favorably the precipitation characteristics and the atmospheric conditions, although some differences are notable in the moisture, vertical motion, and cloud water fields. The future climate projection indicates that both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events over East Asia increase compared with those in the present climate. However, when comparing the atmospheric conditions in the historical and future climates for the same precipitation intensity range, the future climate indicates smaller relatively humidity, weaker ascent, less cloud water content, and smaller temperature lapse rate, which negatively affect generating extreme precipitation events. The comparison of the precipitation intensity at the same amount of precipitable water between the historical and future climates indicates that extreme precipitation is weaker in the future, because of the more stabilized troposphere in the future. The general increase in extreme precipitation under future climate is primarily due to the enhanced increase in precipitable water in the higher temperature ranges, which counteracts the negative conditions of the stabilized troposphere.

Synoptic Analysis of Flood-Causing Rainfall and Flood Characteristics in the Source Area of the Yellow River

The source area of the Yellow River (SAYR) in China is an important water yield and water-conservation area in the Yellow River. Understanding the variability in rainfall and flood over the SAYR region and the related mechanism of flood-causing rainfall is of great importance for the utilization of flood water resources through the optimal operation of cascade reservoirs over the upper Yellow River such as Longyangxia and Liujiaxia, and even for the prevention of flood and drought disasters for the entire Yellow River. Based on the flow data of Tangnaihai hydrological station, the rainfall data of the SAYR region and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2020, three meteorological conceptual models of flood-causing rainfall—namely westerly trough type, low vortex shear type, and subtropical high southwest flow type—are established by using the weather-type method. The mechanism of flood-causing rainfall and the corresponding flood characteristics of each weather type were investigated. The results show that during the process of flood-causing rainfall, in the westerly trough type, the mid- and high-latitude circulation is flat and fluctuating. In the low vortex shear type, the high pressures over the Ural Mountains and the Okhotsk Sea are stronger compared to other types in the same period, and a low vortex shear line is formed in the west of the SAYR region at the low level. The rain is formed during the eastward movement of the shear line. In the subtropical high southwest flow type, the low trough of Lake Balkhash and the subtropical high are stronger compared to other types in the same period. Flood-causing rainfall generally occurs in areas with low-level convergence, high-level negative vorticity, low-level positive vorticity, convergence of water vapor flux, a certain amount of atmospheric precipitable water, and low-level cold advection. In terms of flood peak increment and the maximum accumulated flood volume, the westerly trough type has a long duration and small flood volume, and the low vortex shear type and the subtropical high southwest flow type have a short duration and large flood volume.

The Atmospheric Dynamics Related to Extreme Rainfall and Flood Events during September-October-November in South Sulawesi

This study was conducted to analyse the occurrence of extreme rainfall and the dynamics of the atmosphere prior to the occurrence of extreme rainfall and flood events in South Sulawesi during September-October-November (South Sulawesi’s dry season). The data used is daily data for the period 2001-2020. Using 50 mm/day and the 90th percentile rainfall threshold of 119 rain stations distributed over 24 regencies, extreme rainfall events in each region were identified. Furthermore, after screening for extreme rainfall events followed by flood events, a composite analysis was carried out to obtain patterns of atmospheric conditions before the extreme rainfall events. The results of the study confirm that spatially, the highest extreme rainfall indices values dominate in the western and northern regions of South Sulawesi, both frequency and intensity indicators. Flood events in South Sulawesi during September-October-November 2001-2020 were recorded as 23 days, of which 19 days were the flood events after extreme rainfall events. The dynamics of the atmosphere before the extreme rainfall event followed by the flood event showed anomalies in precipitable water, 850 mb winds, and 200 mb winds. An increase in the amount of precipitable water and a wind speed of 850 mb, as well as a decrease in wind speed of 250 mb compared to normal in the South Sulawesi region and its surroundings, has resulted in an increase in the formation of rain clouds that have the potential to increase the chance of extreme rainfall.

Characteristics and Evolution of the Response of the Lower Atmosphere to the Tonga Volcanic Eruption

Research concerning the response characteristics of lower atmosphere to volcanic eruption is a key and hot topic in the field of volcanic environment research. Against the background of a submarine volcano in the South Pacific island country of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) on 15 January 2022, this paper explores the response characteristics of this volcanic eruption on environmental factors in the lower atmosphere region using a priori data such as ERA5 reanalysis data, water vapor data from GNSS inversion and surface temperature data from Landsat inversion for the Tonga Islands region. Among them, (1) The amount of precipitable water (PWV) in Tonga was abnormally high on 15 January. (2) The water vapor flux was mainly in the lower space below 850 hPa. (3) The average surface temperature in December 2021 was higher. In February 2022, the average surface temperature was lower. (4) There was a low-pressure center near 30° S on the south side of Tonga volcano on 14 January, and a new low-pressure center was formed on the east side of Tonga volcano after the eruption of Tonga volcano on 15 January. Furthermore, the precipitation area of Tonga increased in January and decreased in February 2022. The PWV values, water vapor fluxes, temperature and circulation response characteristics, and precipitation characteristics show that the volcanic eruption affected part of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and water vapor was transported to the low-pressure center along the direction of atmospheric circulation. With the continuous water vapor transport, precipitation formed in Tonga, and the intensity and area of precipitation in Tonga increased significantly in January. Thus, the volcanic eruption could have significantly triggered the response between the low-pressure center, PWV, precipitation and surface temperature in the lower atmosphere, which influenced the environmental characteristics of this eruption.

The results of atmospheric parameters measurements in the millimeter wavelength range on the radio astronomy observatory “Suffa Plateau”

The results of measurements of atmospheric absorption and the amount of precipitated water on the Suffa Plateau for the period from January, 2015 to November, 2020, are presented. The measurements of atmospheric parameters in the 2 and 3 mm range of the radio waves spectrum were carried out using the MIAP-2 radiometer. The results of more than six years of measurements have show that on the Suffa Plateau, atmospheric parameters in the above range remain fairly stable. The median value of the atmospheric absorption and the amount of precipitated water over the entire observation period were 0.14 and 0.12 Nep and 5.91 and 9.83 mm, respectively, for the ranges of 2 and 3 mm.

Estimativa de dados faltantes de precipitação mensal no sudoeste da Colômbia: comparação de diferentes métodos

ABSTRACT Historical rainfall records are relevant in hydrometeorological studies because they provide information on the spatial features, frequency, and amount of precipitated water in a specific place, therefore, it is essential to make an adequate estimation of missing data. This study evaluated four methods for estimating missing monthly rainfall data at 46-gauge stations in southwestern Colombia covering 1983-2019. The performance of the Normal Ratio (NR), Principal Components Regression (PCR), Principal Least Square Regression (PLSR), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) methods were compared using three standardized error metrics: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Percent BIAS (PBIAS), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results generally showed a better performance of the nonlinear ANN method. Regarding the linear methods, the best performance was registered by the PLSR, followed by the PCR. The results suggest the applicability of the ANN method in regions with a low density of stations and a high percentage of missing data, such as southwestern Colombia.

The Results of Observation of Precipitated Water on Suffa Plateau in the Period 2015-2020

The results of measurements of the amount of precipitated water at the Radio Astronomy Observatory RT-70 on the Suffa Plateau (Uzbekistan, λ=65°26, ϕ=39°37, h=2500 m) are presented. Observations were carried out automatically every 11 minutes during the year, starting from January 2015. Seasonal variations of the amount of precipitated water in the atmosphere are considered, and statistical diagrams are constructed. The main result of the work is the statistical data characterizing the astroclimate, which make it possible to predict the possibility of radio astronomical observations in the transparency windows of the wavelength range.

Summertime precipitation extremes and the influence of atmospheric flows on the western slopes of the southern Andes of Perú

AbstractAlthough climatologically dry, the western slopes of the southern Andes of Peru (WSA) can experience precipitation extremes (PEs) during the summer (December–February) resulting in great economic and human losses. Generally, WSA has a positive upslope gradient in precipitation, meaning more rain falls at higher elevations, but observations have shown this gradient can become negative with higher rainfall near the coastal cities. In this study we analyse 2000–2019 regional atmospheric patterns associated with different upslope precipitation gradients and PEs in WSA using principal component analysis methods and surface station observations. Results show important changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns during the occurrence of PE events. A prevailing pattern of negative southerly wind anomalies and regional warming of the southeastern Pacific Ocean leads to significant increases in moisture along the coast of WSA. Eastern moisture flows associated with the presence of the Bolivian High are observed at upper levels of the atmosphere and transport water vapour from the Amazon to the western side of the Andes. Additionally, there is a blocking effect aloft in response to an intense gradient of geopotential height that attenuates the easterly circulations. These large‐scale mechanisms act to concentrate high precipitable water amounts and high levels of convective available potential energy in the troposphere which favours the vertical velocities essential to trigger PEs. These results increase our knowledge of the large‐scale characteristics of PEs to help with forecasting these impactful events and protecting the more than 1.8 million people living in WSA.

GPS Meteorology : Error in the estimation of precipitable water by ground based GPS system in some meso-scale thunderstorms - A case study

Remote sensing by ground based GPS receivers provide continuous and accurate measurement of precipitable water (PW) of an order of 1.5 mm comparable to radiosondes and water vapour radiometers. In the present work we have examined the amount of PW variation in three thunderstorms accompanied with rain shower that occurred over the GPS station. In all the three thunderstorms event heavy rain was reported. However on comparison of observed rainfall with GPS estimated precipitable water (hourly) in real time, it is observed that among the three, in one event the amount of precipitable water (PW) is much less (~20mm) for the same amount of rainfall. After analysing and taken into account various source of error, we suspect that in a mesoscale thunderstorms or squall lines associated with heavy rainfall, discrepancies arise because the wet mapping functions that used to map the wet delay at any angle to the zenith do not represent the localized atmospheric condition particularly for narrow towering thunder clouds and non-availability of GPS satellites in the zenith direction. On the other hand for the larger thunder cells the atmosphere is very nearly azimuthally symmetric with respect to GPS receiver, the error due to the wet mapping function is minimal.

Assessment of the Impacts of Tropical Cyclones Idai to the Western Coastal Area and Hinterlands of the South Western Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are among the atmospheric events which may trigger/enhance the occurrence of disasters to the society in most world basins including the Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO). This study analyzed the dynamics and the impacts of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) Idai (4th-21st March, 2019) which devastated most of the SWIO countries. The study used the Reanalysis 1 products of daily zonal (u) and meridional (v) winds, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), amount of Precipitable Water (PRW), and relative humidity (Rh). The dynamics and movements of Idai were analyzed using the wind circulation at 850, 700, 500 and 200 mb, where the TC dynamic variables like vertical wind shear, vorticity, and the mean zonal wind were calculated using u and v components. Using the open Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) software the data was processed into three-time epochs of pre, during and post; and then analyzed to feature the state of the atmosphere before (pre), during and post TC Idai using all datasets. The amount of precipitable water was used to map the rainfall on pre, during, and post Idai as well as during its landfall. The results revealed that dynamics of TC Idai was intensifying the weather (over Mozambique) and clearing the weather equatorward or southward of 12°S, with low vertical wind shear over the landfall areas (-3 to 3 m/s) and higher shear values (10 - 40 m/s) northward and southward of the Mozambican channel. Higher moisture content (80 - 90%) and higher PRW (40 - 60 mm/day) mapped during Idai over the lowland areas of Mozambique propagating westward. Higher low-level vorticity values were also mapped over the landfall areas. More results revealed that countries laying equatorward of 12°S, e.g., the northern coastal areas of Kenya (Turkana and Baringo) and Tanzania, Idai disrupted the 2019 March to May (MAM) seasonal rainfall by inducing long dry spell which accelerated the famine over the northeastern Kenya (Turkana). Moreover, results revealed that the land falling of Idai triggered intensive flooding which affected a wide spectrum of socio-economic livelihoods including significant loss of lives, injuries, loss of material wealth, infrastructure; indeed, people were forced to leave their houses for quite a longtime; water-borne diseases like malaria, cholera among others were experienced. Furthermore, results and reports revealed that a large amount of funds were raised to combat the impacts of Idai. For instance, USAID/OFDA used about $14,146,651 for human aid and treatment of flood-prone diseases like Cholera in Mozambique ($13,296,651), Zimbabwe ($100,000), and Malawi ($280,000), respectively. Also a death toll of about 602 in Mozambique and 344 in Zimbabwe, and more than 2500 cases of injured people were reported. Conclusively the study has shown that TCs including Idai and other are among the deadliest natural phenomenon which great affects the human and his environments, thus extensive studies on TCs frequency, strength, tracks as well as their coast benefit analysis should be conducted to reduce the societal impacts of these TCs.

Spatio-Temporal Assessment of the Performance of March to May 2020 Long Rains and Its Socio-Economic Implications in Northern Coast of Tanzania

The spatio-temporal analysis of the performance of the March to May (MAM) 2020 rainfall and its societal implications to Northern Coastal Tanzania (NCT) including Zanzibar was investigated. The uniqueness of the October to December, 2019 (OND) rainfall and the extension of the January to February, 2020 rainfall in Zanzibar which coincided with MAM 2020 rainfall was among the issues which prolonged MAM 2020 rainfall in NCT and Zanzibar. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in collaboration with National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Reanalysis 1 datasets of u (zonal) and v (meridional) winds, sea surface temperatures anomalies, relative humidity, amount of precipitable water and ocean net flux were analyzed. Other datasets include the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) observed rainfall records, maximum and minimum temperatures. Moreover, TMA and Intergovernmental Climate Prediction and Analysis Center (ICPAC). MAM 2020 rainfall and temperature forecast reports were interpreted. Gridded and observed datasets were calculated into monthly and seasonal averages. As for observed data, long-term monthly and MAM percentage changes were calculated. Besides, the correlation between rainfall anomalies with an area-averaged SSTA for defined regions and stations in Zanzibar was performed. Lastly, the calculated monthly and seasonal rainfall was compared to MAM periods of 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. Results revealed that consecutive five MAM seasonal rainfall was among the highest ones in records with that of 2020 being exceptional. These MAM seasons had percentage contribution ranged from 68% - 212%, 150% - 304%, 22% - 163% and 57% - 170% for stations in Zanzibar and 130% - 230%, 57% - 168% and 230% - 706% for NCT station, respectively. Compared to previous MAM seasons of 2016-2019, MAM 2020 rainfall season was spatially well distributed in our study area with rainfall ranging from 1200 to 2100 mm and up to 900 in most Zanzibar and NCT stations. Indeed, the study revealed that the observed highest rainfall and flooding was enhanced by wet seasons of MAM 2019, OND 2019 and DFJ (2019-2020). Other dynamics which accelerated MAM 2020 rainfall were the higher SSTA ranged from 0.5°C - 1.5°C and 1.5°C - 2.5°C over Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) and coastal Tanzania and the increased trend of area-averaged SSTA on various SWIO blocks. Besides, parameters including Rhum, PWR and wind regimes were supporting the MAM 2020 rainfall. The socio-economic implications of these rains were strong and spatially well distributed in Zanzibar. For instance, a death toll of about 10 people, a great number of road culverts were washed away, and about 3600 houses were fallen or damaged, leading to a significant number of homeless people. As for NCT, the catastrophes include loss of lives, increased water levels over Lake Victoria leading to flooded islands and re allocation of more than 1000 people. In Kenya, more than 116 people died and 40,000 people were displaced. Conclusively, the study has shown the uniqueness (i.e., strength and societal implications) of MAM 2020 compared to other seasons; hence more studies on understanding the factors affecting extreme rainfall seasons in East Africa are required.

New measures of deep soil water recharge during the vegetation restoration process in semi-arid regions of northern China

Abstract. Desertification in semi-arid regions is currently a global environmental and societal problem. This research attempts to understand whether a 40-year-old rain-fed Artemisia sphaerocephala Krasch sand-fixing land as part of the Three North Shelterbelt Program (3NSP) of China can be developed sustainably or not using a newly designed lysimeter to monitor the precipitation-induced deep soil recharge (DSR) at 220 cm of depth. Evapotranspiration is calculated through a water balance equation when precipitation and soil moisture data are collected. A comparison of soil particle sizes and soil moisture distributions in artificial sand-fixing land and neighboring bare land is made to assess the impact of sand-fixing reforestation. Results show that such a sand-fixing reforestation results in a root system being mainly developed in the horizontal direction and a changed soil particle distribution. Specifically, the sandy soil with 50.53 % medium sand has been transformed into a sandy soil with 68.53 % fine sand. Within the Artemisia sphaerocephala Krasch sand-fixing experimental area, the DSR values in the bare sand plot and Artemisia sphaerocephala Krasch plot are respectively 283.6 and 90.6 mm in wet years, reflecting a difference of more than 3 times. The deep soil layer moisture in semi-arid sandy land is largely replenished by precipitation-induced infiltration. The DSR values of the bare sandy land plot and Artemisia sphaerocephala Krasch plot are respectively 51.6 and 2 mm in dry years, a difference of more than 25 times. The proportions of DSR reduced by Artemisia sphaerocephala Krasch are 68.06 % and 96.12 % in wet and dry years, respectively. This research shows that Artemisia sphaerocephala Krasch in semi-arid regions can continue to grow and has the capacity to fix sand. It consumes a large amount of precipitated water and reduces the amount of DSR considerably.

Variability and Trend in Integrated Water Vapour from ERA-Interim and IGRA2 Observations over Peninsular Malaysia

Integrated water vapour (IWV) is the total amount of precipitable water in an atmospheric column between the Earth’s surface and space. The implication of its variability and trend on the Earth’s radiation budget and precipitation makes its monitoring on a regular basis important. ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERA) and radiosonde (RS) data from 1988 to 2018 were used to investigate variability and trend in IWV over Peninsular Malaysia. ERA performed excellently when gauged with RS. Trend analysis was performed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall and Theil–Sen slope estimator tests. ERA and RS IWV revealed double fluctuations at the seasonal time scale, with maxima in May and November, which are the respective beginnings of the southwest monsoon (SWM) and northeast monsoon (NEM) seasons, as well as coincidental peaks of precipitation in the region. IWV decreased in a southeast–northwest orientation, with regional maximum domiciled over the southeastern tip of the region. Steep orography tended to shape intense horizontal gradients along the edges of the peninsular, with richer gradients manifesting along the western boundary during SWM, which harbours more water vapour in the peninsular. IWV trends, both at the annual and seasonal time series, were positive and statistically significant at the 95% level across the stations, except at Kota Bharu, where a nonsignificant downward trend manifested. Trends were mostly higher in the NEM, with the greatest rate being 0.20 ± 0.42 kgm−2 found at Penang. Overall, the IWV trend in Peninsular Malaysia was positive and consistent with the upward global changes in IWV reported elsewhere.

Observed Climatological Relationships of Extreme Daily Precipitation Events With Precipitable Water and Vertical Velocity in the Contiguous United States

AbstractAn analysis of 3,104 stations in the United States shows virtually every station exhibits a positive correlation between precipitable water (PW) and extreme daily precipitation (EP) with over one‐third statistically significant. To first approximation, EP scales linearly with PW, but there is nonlinear scaling at the lower and upper ends of the PW distribution. On average, EP is amplified by twice the amount of PW, but there is substantial seasonal and spatial variability caused by dynamically forced vertical velocity with stations ranging from a one‐to‐one relationship to over three‐to‐one. These latter stations are generally found in elevated terrain or near coasts and in regions and seasons affected by strong synoptic‐scale weather systems. The results also point to PW, not vertical velocity, as the key limiting factor in the most intense EP events. This has important implications for projecting changes of the most intense EP events in a warmer world.

МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ВЗАЄМОДІЇ КРИЛЕВОГО ПРОФІЛЮ З ДОЩОВИМ ПОТОКОМ

The subject of the study is the analysis of the multilateral impact of rainfall on the flight of a modern aircraft. When considering various factors of this impact, it was found that the main negative consequences of the interaction of the aircraft with the rain flow are the formation of a thin layer of water on its surface, which under the influence of drops and surface tension forces changes the configuration of the wing profile, causing loss of load-bearing properties and an increase in frontal aircraft resistance. The influence of rain flowing around the bearing surfaces can be reduced to taking into account changes in the characteristics of the surface and the flow of the airflow. The goal is to develop a model for the interaction of modern wing profiles with rain flow. The task is to determine the amount of water deposited on the surface of the wing profile, calculate the parameters of the water film formed on its surface, and as a result of this, change the tangential stress at the liquid-air interface. The semi-empirical calculation method used reveals a significant dependence of the amount of precipitated rain water on the surface of modern wing profiles on their geometry and the conditions of interaction with the stream of raindrops. The result of this work is the resulting model, which allows you to simulate the flow conditions around the wing profile in the rain stream and evaluate the relationship of rain intensity with the parameters of the water film that forms on the profile. Conclusions. An analysis of the features of the rain film flow over the surface of the wing profile and its effect on the parameters of the boundary layer shows the negative nature of the effect of rainfall on the aerodynamics of the aircraft. The results obtained allow us to judge the reliability of using the adopted model to calculate the effect of rain on the aerodynamic characteristics of wing profiles, and the possibility of using the results to determine the dependence of the aerodynamic characteristics of wing profiles on the conditions of rainfall molasses.

Impact of high-resolution sea surface temperature representation on the forecast of small Mediterranean catchments' hydrological responses to heavy precipitation

Abstract. Operational meteo-hydrological forecasting chains are affected by many sources of uncertainty. In coastal areas characterized by complex topography, with several medium-to-small size catchments, quantitative precipitation forecast becomes even more challenging due to the interaction of intense air–sea exchanges with coastal orography. For such areas, which are quite common in the Mediterranean Basin, improved representation of sea surface temperature (SST) space–time patterns can be particularly important. The paper focuses on the relative impact of different resolutions of SST representation on regional operational forecasting chains (up to river discharge estimates) over coastal Mediterranean catchments, with respect to two other fundamental options while setting up the system, i.e. the choice of the forcing general circulation model (GCM) and the possible use of a three-dimensional variational assimilation (3D-Var) scheme. Two different kinds of severe hydro-meteorological events that affected the Calabria region (southern Italy) in 2015 are analysed using the WRF-Hydro atmosphere–hydrology modelling system in its uncoupled version. Both of the events are modelled using the 0.25∘ resolution global forecasting system (GFS) and the 16 km resolution integrated forecasting system (IFS) initial and lateral atmospheric boundary conditions, which are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), applying the WRF mesoscale model for the dynamical downscaling. For the IFS-driven forecasts, the effects of the 3D-Var scheme are also analysed. Finally, native initial and lower boundary SST data are replaced with data from the Medspiration project by Institut Français de Recherche pour L'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)/Centre European Remote Sensing d'Archivage et de Traitement (CERSAT), which have a 24 h time resolution and a 2.2 km spatial resolution. Precipitation estimates are compared with both ground-based and radar data, as well as discharge estimates with stream gauging stations' data. Overall, the experiments highlight that the added value of high-resolution SST representation can be hidden by other more relevant sources of uncertainty, especially the choice of the general circulation model providing the boundary conditions. Nevertheless, in most cases, high-resolution SST fields show a non-negligible impact on the simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer processes, modifying flow dynamics and/or the amount of precipitated water; thus, this emphasizes the fact that uncertainty in SST representation should be duly taken into account in operational forecasting in coastal areas.

Cut‐off low systems over Iraq: Contribution to annual precipitation and synoptic analysis of extreme events

AbstractWe combine daily in situ precipitation data with meteorological reanalysis data in order to explore the contribution of cut‐off low systems to the seasonal and inter‐annual rainfall variations over Baghdad from 2005 to 2016. During these 12 years (average rainfall of 131 ± 67 mm/year), 38 rainy cut‐off lows brought 43% of the total precipitation, with extreme inter‐annual variations. Indeed, precipitation associated with autumn cut‐off lows was the principal factor that turned an arid into a wet year: during the three most arid years cut‐off lows contributed about 25% of the average rainfall (10 out of 40 mm/year) while during the three wettest years they contributed near 67% (171 out of 254 mm/year). The extreme‐rain cut‐off low systems displayed analogous synoptic characteristics: upper‐atmosphere divergence, upwards vertical motions in the middle atmosphere, and lower‐atmosphere winds into central Iraq at times when the surface Red Sea and Persian Gulf waters were warmer than the surface air. During those days previous to an extreme event, the surface waters cooled substantially and the amount of precipitable water increased largely, suggesting high latent heat transfer. In order to characterize those conditions that favour rainfall, we focus on the November 18–20, 2013 cut‐off low system, which led to the largest flooding and wettest year in Baghdad between 2005 and 2016. The distribution of properties in the middle (500 hPa) and upper (250 hPa) troposphere shows that the region was affected by intense horizontal divergence and upwards motions, coinciding with a surface low over the Arabian Peninsula that caused intense northwards winds over the Persian Gulf and brought substantial moisture to central Iraq. The analysis of several stability indexes indicates that convective instability played a secondary role during the episode.

Synoptic Analysis of a Period with Above-normal Precipitation during the Dry Season in Southeastern Brazil

This study presents an analysis of a period with positive precipitation anomalies and anomalous severe weather activity in parts of the Southeastern Brazil during the dry season (austral winter). The objective of this work is to identify the synoptic pattern associated with the severe episodes on August 2018. The analysis was based on observational data and the CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis). Standardized anomalies of the main meteorological variables were used in the analysis. An anomalous trough in the mid and upper troposphere and the associated low-level flow from the Amazon Basin to Southeastern Brazil provided high amount of precipitable water, and were the main responsible for the rainfall markedly above the climatology along with severe hail and strong winds. The atmospheric environment was conditionally unstable due to a stationary front. These type of analyzes should be taken into consideration at this time of year to improve weather forecasts and minimize impacts in such circumstances.

Multi-technique analysis of precipitable water vapor estimates in the sub-Sahel West Africa

Precipitable water vapor (PWV) is an important climate parameter indicative of available moisture in the atmosphere; it is also an important greenhouse gas. Observations of precipitable water vapor in sub-Sahel West Africa are almost non-existent. Several Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites have been established across West Africa, and observations from four of them, namely, Ilorin (4.34° E, 8.32° N), Cinzana (5.93° W, 13.28° N), Banizoumbou (2.67° E, 13.54° N) and Dakar (16.96° W, 14.39° N) are being used in this study. Data spanning the period from 2004 to 2014 have been selected; they include conventional humidity parameters, remotely sensed aerosol and precipitable water information and numerical model outputs. Since in Africa, only conventional information on humidity parameters is available, it is important to utilize the unique observations from the AERONET network to calibrate empirical formulas frequently used to estimate precipitable water vapor from humidity measurements. An empirical formula of the form PWV=aTd+b where Td is the surface dew point temperature, a and b are constants, was fitted to the data and is proposed as applicable to the climatic condition of the sub-Sahel. Moreover, we have also used the AERONET information to evaluate the capabilities of well-established numerical weather prediction (NWP) models such as ERA Interim Reanalysis, NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II and NCEP-CFSR, to estimate precipitable water vapor in the sub-Sahel West Africa; it was found that the models tend to overestimate the amount of precipitable water at the selected sites by about 25 %.