Alternative Stable States Research Articles

Ecosystem transition due to deer overabundance: Insights from long‐term studies and future considerations

AbstractThe overabundance of certain deer species is emerging as a critical issue in many forested regions across the Northern Hemisphere, including those in Japan. In the field of deer impact studies, the prevailing notion has been that overabundant deer populations could cause drastic changes of ecosystem states. This study comprises a review of the historical discussion surrounding ecosystem changes caused by deer overabundance, from theoretical frameworks to in situ observations and experiments. The synthesis highlights the potential for state transitions, shifting ecosystems from forest to nonforest states, and in some scenarios to a so‐called alternative stable states. However, detecting these transitions poses challenges due to the enduring impacts of past deer activity and the nonequilibrium nature of forest dynamics. Furthermore, this study reveals additional multifield complexities arising from the interactive effects of deer overabundance and global changes on future forest dynamics. To address these challenges, new avenues for research are proposed, emphasizing the importance of sustained efforts in conducting valuable long‐term studies.

Widespread forest-savanna coexistence but limited bistability at a landscape scale in Central Africa

Abstract Tropical forest and savanna frequently coexist under the same climatic conditions, which has led to the hypothesis that they could represent alternative ecosystem states, stabilized by internal feedbacks. An implication of this hypothesis is that forest and savanna may be bistable and exhibit tipping behavior in response to changing conditions. However, we pose that the local presence of forest and savanna within coexistence landscapes is not sufficient evidence that these are alternative stable states at larger ecosystem scales. Therefore, we explore forest-savanna coexistence and bistability at landscape scale in Central Africa. Using remote sensing data on tree cover, we classify 0.1° x 0.1° (approx. 10 x 10 km) landscapes as homogeneous forest, homogeneous savanna, or coexistence, and analyze the roles of climate, topography and soil sand content in driving their distributions. We find that local coexistence of forest and savanna within landscapes is common and occurs for the whole range of mean annual precipitation in our study area. At low precipitation, however, coexistence increases with topographic roughness and is therefore likely driven by local redistribution of resources rather than internal feedbacks. Coexistence within intermediate and high precipitation landscapes remains unexplained by the studied variables, and may be caused either by heterogeneity in unmeasured drivers or by feedback-driven bistability. At landscape scale, the precipitation ranges for which homogeneous forest and savanna occur have only limited overlap, and this overlap can be largely explained by other external drivers, such as seasonality, soil sand content, and topography. This lack of evidence that homogeneous forest and savanna in Central Africa are alternative ecosystem states at this landscape scale means that transitions between them may be mostly local, resulting in coexistence states. Therefore, we conclude that the likelihood of large-scale tipping between homogeneous forest and savanna ecosystems may be lower than previously thought.

Ecological success of extreme halophiles subjected to recurrent osmotic disturbances is primarily driven by congeneric species replacement.

To understand how extreme halophiles respond to recurrent disturbances, we challenged the communities thriving in salt-saturated (~36% salts) ~230L brine mesocosms to repeated dilutions down to 13% (D13 mesocosm) or 20% (D20 mesocosm) salts each time mesocosms reached salt saturation due to evaporation (for 10 and 17cycles, respectively) over 813days. Depending on the magnitude of dilution, the most prevalent species, Haloquadratum walsbyi and Salinibacter ruber, either increased in dominance by replacing less competitive populations (for D20, moderate stress conditions), or severely decreased in abundance and were eventually replaced by other congeneric species better adapted to the higher osmotic stress (for D13, strong stress conditions). Congeneric species replacement was commonly observed within additional abundant genera in response to changes in environmental or biological conditions (e.g. phage predation) within the same system and under a controlled perturbation of a relevant environmental parameter. Therefore, a genus is an ecologically important level of diversity organization, not just a taxonomic rank, that persists in the environment based on congeneric species replacement due to relatively high functional overlap (gene sharing), with important consequences for the success of the lineage, and similar to the success of a species via strain-replacement. Further, our results showed that successful species were typically accompanied by the emergence of their own viral cohorts, whose intra-cohort diversity appeared to strongly covary with, and likely drive, the intra-host diversity. Collectively, our results show that brine communities are ecologically resilient and continuously adapting to changing environments by transitioning to alternative stable states.

Reference vegetation for restoration? Three vegetation maps compared across 76 nature reserves in Uganda and Kenya

AbstractForest and landscape restoration are increasingly popular nature‐based solutions to mitigate climate change and safeguard biodiversity. Restoration planning and monitoring implies that a reference ecosystem has been defined to which the restored site can be compared, but how to best select such reference? We tested three different potential natural vegetation (PNV) maps of the same areas in Kenya and Uganda for their utility as ecological references with independent data that were not used when those maps were made. These independent datasets included presence observations of woody species from 76 sites in forest reserves in Kenya and Uganda, and classification of surveyed species into a system that included “forest‐only” and “nonforest‐only” ecological types. Our tests show that (1) the three vegetation maps largely agree on the environmental envelopes/ranges within which forests occur. (2) There are large differences in how well the maps predict the presence of forest‐only species. (3) Two maps, based on empirical observations (V4A and White), predict forest types well, whereas the third, based on climate envelopes only (NS), performs poorly. (4) A large area in Uganda is potentially in one of two alternative stable states. We conclude that it is possible to evaluate the utility of PNV maps at a more detailed scale than the level of biome and ecoregion. This indicates that it is possible to map PNV at scales required for reference for restoration and management of forest vegetation. We recommend that empirically based maps of potential natural vegetation are used in restoration planning (biome and PNV maps based on climate envelopes alone may be unreliable tools) as a baseline model for predicting the distribution of reference ecosystems under current and future conditions. It could conveniently be done by deconstructing the existing biome maps, supported by rapid botanical surveys.

Assessing the influence of macroalgae and micropredators on the early life success of the echinoid Diademaafricanum

The sea urchin Diadema africanum is an herbivore that has a significant influence on subtidal rocky reef communities on the Canary Islands, facilitating transitions between macroalgal beds and barren grounds. Barren grounds in the archipelago are characterized by a dominance of crustose coralline algae and a lack of invertebrates and fishes compared to macroalgal beds, which are mainly dominated by brown algae. To assess the impact of these benthic community states on the early life success of D. africanum, a manipulative study was conducted in September 2021 at four sites on the eastern coast of Tenerife Island, characterized by the availability of historical settlement rates and adult data for this species. For this purpose, experimental larval collectors modified with a hollow algae-container were employed to examine sea urchin settlement rates in response to two dominant algal species, Lobophora schneideri, in macroalgal beds and crustose coralline algae (CCA) in barren grounds. Statistical analysis revealed significant spatial differences in sea urchin settlement and the interaction between site and treatment response. Specifically, the site with higher sea urchin settlement exhibited lower numbers of D. africanum settlers in treatments containing L. schneideri than in the Control and CCA treatments. Three decapod species (the pistol shrimp Alpheus macrocheles, and the crabs Lophozozimus incisus, and Pachygrapsus marmoratus) negatively correlated with D. africanum settlers. These results suggest that larval supply, L. schneideri beds, and micropredator abundance play a role in the early life success of this species. This may imply a community stability mechanism that helps to prevent shifts between alternative stable states.

Long Transients May be Temporary Visits of Concealed Alternative Stable States

Long Transients May be Temporary Visits of Concealed Alternative Stable States

Severe fire regimes decrease resilience of ectothermic populations.

Understanding populations' responses to environmental change is crucial for mitigating human-induced disturbances. Here, we test hypotheses regarding how three essential components of demographic resilience (resistance, compensation and recovery) co-vary along the distinct life histories of three lizard species exposed to variable, prescribed fire regimes. Using a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we estimate vital rates (survival, growth and reproduction) with 14 years of monthly individual-level data and mark-recapture models to parameterize stochastic integral projection models from five sites in Brazilian savannas, each historically subjected to different fire regimes. With these models, we investigate how weather, microclimate and ecophysiological traits of each species influence their vital rates, emergent life history traits and demographic resilience components in varying fire regimes. Overall, weather and microclimate are better predictors of the species' vital rates, rather than their ecophysiological traits. Our findings reveal that severe fire regimes increase populations' resistance but decrease compensation or recovery abilities. Instead, populations have higher compensatory and recovery abilities at intermediate degrees of fire severity. Additionally, we identify generation time and reproductive output as predictors of resilience trends across fire regimes and climate. Our analyses demonstrate that the probability and quantity of monthly reproduction are the proximal drivers of demographic resilience across the three species. Our findings suggest that populations surpass a tipping point in severe fire regimes and achieve an alternative stable state to persist. Thus, higher heterogeneity in fire regimes can increase the reproductive aspects and resilience of different populations and avoid high-severity regimes that homogenize the environment. Despite being more resistant, species with long generation times and low reproductive output take longer to recover and cannot compensate as much as species with faster paces of life. We emphasize how reproductive constraints, such as viviparity and fixed clutch sizes, impact the ability of ectothermic populations to benefit and recover from disturbances, underscoring their relevance in conservation assessments.

Changes in cross-boundary coalescence effects induce the unsynchronized states shift of microbial structure and microbial-mediated nitrogen-cycle pathways in coupled-ecosystem

Understanding the coalescence of materials and microorganisms across pre-configured functional zones in coupled ecosystems is crucial for refining ecological restoration strategies. Deciphering how this coalescence triggers changes in state and functionality is key. However, the emergence of alternative states due to coalescence impacts could lead to abrupt ecological changes near boundaries, with unknown implications. This study focused on a typical coupled ecosystem, constructed wetland (CW), to investigate the impact of coalescence on shifts in aquatic microbial community states. A quantitative method and hierarchical linear models with Bayesian inference were used. Results showed a gradual increase in coalescence from inlet to outlet, with upstream points significantly influencing downstream points (54.13%, 62.35%, 84.03% for each pond). Alternative stable states were found in microbial-mediated nitrogen cycle pathways, leading to a transition from robust denitrification to diminished ammonification and denitrification states. This shift correlated strongly with community cohesion and nitrogen concentration. The observed change in state shift lagged 5% of the total CW length compared to the change in functional states. This research highlights the potential for targeted manipulation of microbial assemblages in CWs for ecological management and restoration.

Supervised machine learning for understanding and predicting the status of bistable eukaryotic plankton community in urbanized rivers

Understanding and predicting the ecological status of urbanized rivers is crucial for their restoration and management. However, the complex and nonlinear nature of ecological responses poses a challenge to the development of predictive models. Here, the study investigated and predicted the status of eukaryotic plankton communities in urbanized rivers by coupling environmental DNA metabarcoding, the alternative stable states theory, and supervised machine learning (SML) models. The results revealed two distinct states of eukaryotic plankton communities under similar environmental conditions: one state was characterized by the enrichment of a diverse phytoplankton population and the high relative abundance of protozoa, whereas the alternative state was characterized by abundant phytoplankton and fungi with an associated risk of algal blooms. Turbidity was identified as a key driver based on the SML model and Mantel test. Potential analysis demonstrated that the response pattern of eukaryotic plankton communities to turbidity was thresholds with hysteresis (Threshold1 = 17 NTU, Threshold2 = 24 NTU). A reduction in turbidity induced a regime shift in the eukaryotic plankton community toward an alternative state associated with a risk of algal blooms. In the prediction of ecological status, both SML models showed excellent performance (R2 > 0.80, RMSE < 0.1, Kappa > 0.70). Additionally, SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis identified turbidity, chlorophyll-a, chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia nitrogen and green algae's amplicon sequence variants as crucial features for prediction, with turbidity and COD showing a synergistic effect on ecological status. A framework was further proposed to enhance the understanding and prediction of ecological status in urbanized rivers. The obtained results of this study demonstrated the feasibility of using SML models to predict and explain the ecological status of urbanized rivers with alternative stable states. This provides valuable insights for the application of SML models in the restoration and management of urbanized rivers.

Plant-Soil Moisture Positive Feedback Maintaining Alternative Stable States in the Alpine Marsh Ecosystem.

A self-reinforcing positive feedback is regarded as a critical process for maintaining alternative stable states (ASS); however, identification of ASS and quantification of positive feedbacks remain elusive in natural ecosystems. Here, we used large-scale field surveys to search for ASS and a positive feedback mechanism under a wide range of habitats on the Tibetan Plateau. Using multiple methods, we proved that three stable states exist that accompany alpine marsh degradation. Positive feedbacks between changing soil moisture and plant community composition forced the ecosystem into another stable state, and the alteration of water use efficiency (WUE) of the component species contributed to this shift. This study provides the first empirical evidence that positive feedback loops maintain ASS in the alpine marsh ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau. Our research revealed the powerful driving role of plants in transitions between states, which may support the conservation and restoration of global alpine marsh ecosystems.

When do multiple pulses of environmental variation trigger tipping in an ecological system?

Climate change and anthropogenic impacts have a significant effect on natural ecosystems. As a response, tipping phenomena, i.e., abrupt qualitative changes in the dynamics of ecosystems, like transitions between alternative stable states, can be observed. We study such critical transitions, caused by an interplay between B-tipping, the rate of change of environmental forcing, and a rate-dependent basin boundary crossing. Instead of a slow trend of environmental change, we focus on pulses of variation in the carrying capacity in a simple ecological model, the spruce budworm model, and show how one pulse of environmental change can lead to tracking the current stable state or to tipping to an alternative state depending on the strength and the duration of the pulse. Moreover, we demonstrate that applying a second pulse after the first one, which can track the desired state, can lead to tipping, although its rate is slow and does not even cross the critical threshold. We explain this unexpected behavior in terms of the interacting timescales, the intrinsic ecological timescale, the rate of environmental change, and the movement of the basin boundaries separating the basins of attraction of the two alternative states.

BIRDS COMMUNITY AS A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM: SPATIO- TEMPORAL PATTERNS IN AN PERUVIAN ANDEAN AGROECOSYSTEM

The interpretation of biological communities as complex adaptive systems aims to demonstrate their ecological patterns at different scales and their environmental relationships. In this survey, we analyzed species diversity and alternative stable states patterns of the bird community in an Andean agroecosystem located on the central-western slope of the Peruvian Andes (Cajatambo District, Lima - Peru), on a temporal and spatio-temporal scale. We evaluated their bird community through 24 line transects, located in seven plant formations along two ecoregions, between 2 700 and 4 600 masl, during the dry and rainy seasons of 2015 and 2016. The temporal patterns did not show differences in species diversity between seasons. We determined the existence of a single temporary alternative stable states; however, we evidenced changes in their species composition between dry and rainy seasons, suggesting a greater functional redundancy in dry season than rainy season due to temporal variability of small granivore-insectivore species. Regarding the spatio-temporal patterns, the plant formations of Polylepis forests, some scrubs and agricultural lands presented high values of species diversity. In addition, we determined eight alternative stable states in relation to one or more plant formations and seasonality. Finally, a higher proportion of regime changes was found in the community alternative stable states located in the Meso-Andean ecoregion as opposed to the Puna-Humid ecoregion, which would suggest that this bird community has a greater self- organization and adaptability in the face of environmental stochasticity.

BIRDS COMMUNITY AS A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM SPATIO- TEMPORAL PATTERNS IN AN PERUVIAN ANDEAN AGROECOSYSTEM

The interpretation of biological communities as complex adaptive systems aims to demonstrate their ecological patterns at different scales and their environmental relationships. In this survey, we analyzed species diversity and alternative stable states patterns of the bird community in an Andean agroecosystem located on the central-western slope of the Peruvian Andes (Cajatambo District, Lima - Peru), on a temporal and spatio-temporal scale. We evaluated their bird community through 24 line transects, located in seven plant formations along two ecoregions, between 2 700 and 4 600 masl, during the dry and rainy seasons of 2015 and 2016. The temporal patterns did not show differences in species diversity between seasons. We determined the existence of a single temporary alternative stable states; however, we evidenced changes in their species composition between dry and rainy seasons, suggesting a greater functional redundancy in dry season than rainy season due to temporal variability of small granivore-insectivore species. Regarding the spatio-temporal patterns, the plant formations of Polylepis forests, some scrubs and agricultural lands presented high values of species diversity. In addition, we determined eight alternative stable states in relation to one or more plant formations and seasonality. Finally, a higher proportion of regime changes was found in the community alternative stable states located in the Meso-Andean ecoregion as opposed to the Puna-Humid ecoregion, which would suggest that this bird community has a greater self- organization and adaptability in the face of environmental stochasticity.

Hysteretic and asynchronous regime shifts of bacterial and micro-eukaryotic communities driven by nutrient loading

Nutrient pollution is pervasive in many urban rivers, while restoration measures that reduce nutrient loading but fail to improve biological communities often lack effectiveness due to the indispensable role of biota, especially multi-taxa, in enhancing ecosystem stability and function. The investigation of the response patterns of multi-taxa to the nutrient loading in urban rivers is important for the recovery of biota structure and thus ecosystem function. However, little is known about the response patterns of multi-taxa and their impact on ecosystem structure and function in urban rivers. Here, the study, from the perspective of alternative stable states theory, showed the hysteretic response of both bacterial and micro-eukaryotic communities to nutrient loading based on the field investigation and environmental DNA metabarcoding. Bistability was shown to exist in both bacterial and micro-eukaryotic communities, demonstrating that the response of microbiota to nutrient loading was a regime shifts with hysteresis. Potential analysis then indicated that the increased nutrient loading drove regime shifts in the bacterial community and the micro-eukaryotic community towards a state dominated by anaerobic bacteria and benthic Bacillariophyta, respectively. High nutrient loading was found to reduce the relative abundance of metazoan, but increase that of eukaryotic algae, which made the trophic pyramid top-lighter and bottom-heavier, probably exacerbating the degradation of ecosystem function. It should be noted that, in response to the reduced nutrient loading, the recovery threshold of micro-eukaryotic communities (nutrient loading = ∼0.5) was lower than that of bacterial communities (nutrient loading = ∼1.2), demonstrating longer hysteresis of micro-eukaryotic communities. In addition, the markedly positive correlation between the status of microbial communities and N-related enzyme activities suggested the recovery of microbial communities probably will benefit the improvement of N-cycling functionality. The obtained results provide a deep insight into the collapse and recovery trajectories of multi-trophic microbiota to the nutrient loading gradient and their impact on the N transformation potential, therefore benefiting the restoration and management of urban rivers.

The interplay of facilitation and competition drives the emergence of multistability in dryland plant communities.

Within communities, species are wrapped in a set of feedbacks with each other and with their environment. When such feedbacks are strong enough they can generate alternative stable states. So far, research on alternative stable states has mostly focused on systems with a small number of species and a limited diversity of interaction types. Here, we analyze a spatial model of plant community dynamics in stressed ecosystems such as drylands, where each species is characterized by a strategy, and the different species interact through facilitation and competition for space and resources, such as water. We identify three different types of multistability emerging from the interplay of competition and facilitation. Under low-stress levels, plant communities organize in small groups of coexisting species, maintained by space, competition and facilitation ("cliques"). Under higher stress levels, positive feedback from facilitation lead to the dominance of a single facilitating species ("mutual exclusion states"). At the highest stress levels, the single facilitating species left in the system coexists with the desert state. By linking community ecology and alternative stable states theory using a spatial plant community model for stressed ecosystems, our study contributes to highlight the importance of positive feedback loops for the stability of ecological communities.

Marked interannual variability in the relative dominance of phytoplankton over submerged macrophytes rather than regime shifts in a shallow eutrophic lake: Evidence from long-term observations

The theory of regime shift is rooted in the concept of fold catastrophe and posits the existence of alternative stable states, such as a lake dominated by phytoplankton or macrophytes under similar environmental conditions. Although regime shifts have been reported in many shallow lakes, recent evidence has revealed that a linear rather than dual relationship between chlorophyll-a (Chla) and nutrients is more common, indicating that regime shifts are rare in nature. Here, long-term field observations and the coverage of the submerged macrophyte area (SMA) retrieved from remote sensing (RS) images of Yilong Lake, in which regime shifts have been reported, were used to re-examine the presence or absence of regime shifts and to explore the drivers of abrupt changes. During the past three decades, Yilong Lake has experienced three abrupt changes in water quality, phytoplankton biomass (Chla) and the SMA. However, the relationship between Chla and nutrients was significantly linear, and the state variables (Chla, Secchi depth and SMA) changed along the gradient of environmental stress, which demonstrates the absence of regime shifts and instead highlights the presence of marked interannual changes. Moreover, we found that nutrients and water depth are the main environmental factors driving the establishment/collapse of the SMA and shaping the relative dominance of phytoplankton over the SMA, further inducing rapid changes in nutrient cycling and water quality in Yilong Lake. The significant interannual variability in the SMA and Chla in Yilong Lake reflects a pronounced weakening of resilience. To enhance resilience, an adaptive strategy involving external nutrient loading reduction, water level management and biodiversity restoration is proposed.

Age-related behavioral resilience in smartphone touchscreen interaction dynamics

We experience a life that is full of ups and downs. The ability to bounce back after adverse life events such as the loss of a loved one or serious illness declines with age, and such isolated events can even trigger accelerated aging. How humans respond to common day-to-day perturbations is less clear. Here, we infer the aging status from smartphone behavior by using a decision tree regression model trained to accurately estimate the chronological age based on the dynamics of touchscreen interactions. Individuals (N = 280, 21 to 87 y of age) expressed smartphone behavior that appeared younger on certain days and older on other days through the observation period that lasted up to ~4 y. We captured the essence of these fluctuations by leveraging the mathematical concept of critical transitions and tipping points in complex systems. In most individuals, we find one or more alternative stable aging states separated by tipping points. The older the individual, the lower the resilience to forces that push the behavior across the tipping point into an older state. Traditional accounts of aging based on sparse longitudinal data spanning decades suggest a gradual behavioral decline with age. Taken together with our current results, we propose that the gradual age-related changes are interleaved with more complex dynamics at shorter timescales where the same individual may navigate distinct behavioral aging states from one day to the next. Real-world behavioral data modeled as a complex system can transform how we view and study aging.

Cooperative growth in microbial communities is a driver of multistability

Microbial communities often exhibit more than one possible stable composition for the same set of external conditions. In the human microbiome, these persistent changes in species composition and abundance are associated with health and disease states, but the drivers of these alternative stable states remain unclear. Here we experimentally demonstrate that a cross-kingdom community, composed of six species relevant to the respiratory tract, displays four alternative stable states each dominated by a different species. In pairwise coculture, we observe widespread bistability among species pairs, providing a natural origin for the multistability of the full community. In contrast with the common association between bistability and antagonism, experiments reveal many positive interactions within and between community members. We find that multiple species display cooperative growth, and modeling predicts that this could drive the observed multistability within the community as well as non-canonical pairwise outcomes. A biochemical screening reveals that glutamate either reduces or eliminates cooperativity in the growth of several species, and we confirm that such supplementation reduces the extent of bistability across pairs and reduces multistability in the full community. Our findings provide a mechanistic explanation of how cooperative growth rather than competitive interactions can underlie multistability in microbial communities.

Effects of Rock Type and Food Availability on Bioerosion by the Purple Sea Urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus.

Purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) profoundly impact nearshore rocky coasts through their feeding habits. Their intense grazing sculpts substrates through bioerosion using their teeth and spines and controls the alternative stable state dynamic between kelp bed and urchin barrens. These states have contrasting food availability for sea urchins, with abundant food in kelp beds and scarce food in barren grounds. However, the relationship between food availability and bioerosion is unknown. We predicted that when kelp is available, it would ameliorate the action of teeth on the substrate. Our 11-weeks long, 2×2 factorial experiment, crossed community state (kelp present vs absent) and rock type (sandstone vs mudstone). We also quantified the contribution of spine abrasion to bioerosion on the two rock types. The bioerosion rates did not differ between treatments with and without kelp. Although there was no significant difference in net bioerosion between the rock types, there was a large difference between the proportion of bioerosion from teeth vs spine abrasion. Approximately a third of the sandstone bioerosion was from spines whereas less than 2% of mudstone bioerosion could be attributed to spines. As anticipated, growth of sea urchins fed kelp ad-libitum was higher than food-limited sea urchins. Surprisingly, sea urchins on mudstone (which has a higher organic component) grew faster than sea urchins on sandstone. Although bioerosion rates may not differ on a per-urchin basis between community states, the sea urchin population densities between kelp beds and urchin barrens likely causes a difference in net bioerosion between these communities. Our results point to the importance of lithology on the mechanics of sea urchin bioerosion. Differences in texture, grain size, and hardness of rock substrates undoubtedly contribute to bioerosion rates and dynamics.

Microtopographic Variation as a Potential Early Indicator of Ecosystem State Change and Vulnerability in Salt Marshes

As global climate change alters the magnitude and rates of environmental stressors, predicting the extent of ecosystem degradation driven by these rapidly changing conditions becomes increasingly urgent. At the landscape scale, disturbances and stressors can increase spatial variability and heterogeneity — indicators that can serve as potential early warnings of declining ecosystem resilience. Increased spatial variability in salt marshes at the landscape scale has been used to quantify the propagation of ponding in salt marsh interiors, but ponding at the landscape scale follows a state change rather than predicts it. Here, we suggest a novel application of commonly collected surface elevation table (SET) data and explore millimeter-scale marsh surface microtopography as a potential early indicator of ecosystem transition. We find an increase in spatial variability using multiple metrics of microtopographic heterogeneity in vulnerable salt marsh communities across the North American Atlantic seaboard. Increasing microtopographic heterogeneity in vulnerable salt marshes mirrored increasing trends in variance when a tipping point is approached in other alternative stable state systems — indicating that early warning signals of marsh drowning and ecosystem transition are observable at small-spatial scales prior to runaway ecosystem degradation. Congruence between traditional and novel metrics of marsh vulnerability suggests that microtopographic metrics can be used to identify hidden vulnerability before widespread marsh degradation. This novel analysis can be easily applied to existing SET records expanding the traditional focus on vertical change to additionally encapsulate lateral processes.