Alternative Predictors Research Articles

Yawning, a thermoregulatory mechanism during fever? A study of yawning frequency and its predictors during experimentally induced sickness

Yawning has been proposed to serve both physiological and social functions, the latter likely to have developed later in its evolution. A central hypothesis is that yawning cools the brain but whether yawning is a thermoregulatory mechanism that is activated during hyperthermia (i.e., thermoregulatory failure) or is activated in any instance of brain temperature increase (e.g., also during fever) is unclear and experimental assessments of yawning during fever are lacking. In this study, we determined the effect of experimentally induced fever on yawning frequency. We also explored alternative predictors of yawning during sickness (sleepiness, autonomic nervous system indexes and sickness symptoms). Twenty-two healthy human subjects participated in a randomized, placebo-controlled, cross-over study, where the subjects received an injection of the bacterial endotoxin lipopolysaccharide (LPS) at a dose of 2ng/kg body weight in one condition and placebo in the other. Yawning was scored from video recordings from 30min before to 4h after the injection. Body temperature was measured frequently, alongside with heart rate, blood pressure, nausea and overall sickness symptoms. Yawning frequency was found to significantly increase over time during experimentally induced sickness, but not in the placebo condition. In particular, yawning frequency was increased during the rising phase of body temperature induced by LPS administration, although no significant correlation was found between body temperature increase and yawning frequency. In addition, exploratory analyses showed that a higher yawning frequency was associated with less increase in sickness symptoms and nausea intensity. While the current study adds to previous research showing significant increase in yawning frequency during hyperthermia, further studies are needed if we are to properly characterize the brain cooling role of yawning in humans. The investigation of other functions, such as being a vasovagal inhibitory, may shed stronger light on the functions of yawning.

Neighborhoods, Individuals, and Instrumental Crime in Russia and Ukraine: A Multilevel Test of Merton’s Anomie Theory

Empirically assess Baumer’s (Theor Criminol 11(1):63–93, 2007) efforts to unify Merton’s anomie/strain theory within a multilevel framework that anticipates instrumental crime among individuals who are both strongly committed to monetary success goals and weakly committed to the normative means for pursuing these goals, particularly if they possess certain other personal attributes or are embedded within anomic socio-cultural contexts. Multilevel overdispersed Poisson regression models are estimated using survey data from 1431 adult residents of 41 neighborhoods in Lviv, Ukraine, and Nizhni Novgorod, Russia. Consistent with expectations, financial dissatisfaction among individuals appears to exacerbate the effect of the goals-means interaction on instrumental crime. However, no evidence was observed of moderation involving perceived risk of punishment, commitment to non-monetary success goals, and blocked legitimate opportunities. Although neighborhood anomie exerted a statistically significant main effect on instrumental crime, theorized cross-level interactions involving strong cultural emphasis on monetary success goals, weak cultural emphasis on normative means, and limited consensus regarding the normative means by which to pursue monetary success goals did not materialize. Findings cast doubt on the cross-cultural generality of Baumer’s multilevel conceptualization of Merton’s strain/anomie theory. However, they confirm financial dissatisfaction as a key predictor of instrumental crime and moderator of unbalanced value commitments among individuals. They also suggest that future efforts to bridge the micro and macro strands of Merton’s theory will need to incorporate alternate theoretical predictors (e.g., personal morality) and consider ways in which an anomic social order contributes to deviant behavior directly rather than merely indirectly through the proportion of the population experiencing a goals-means disjuncture.

Predicting Domestic Homicides and Serious Violence in Dorset: a Replication of Thornton\u2019s Thames Valley Analysis

Research QuestionWhat facts known to police, if any, could have predicted the 107 domestic and family murders and near-murders in Dorset (UK) police area over a recent 7-year period, using methods identical to Thornton’s (2011, 2017)?DataThe data were gathered from all 107 cases of domestic murders, manslaughter, attempted murder or grievous bodily harm with intent in Dorset between April 2009 and March 2015, plus a matched control sample of 214 arrestees for less-deadly violent offences.MethodsReplicating Thornton’s Thames Valley analysis, two methods were used: (1) calculating errors in predictions from previous risk assessments using the UK’s DASH (Domestic Abuse, Stalking and Harassment) risk assessment protocol and (2) making a case-control comparison of Thornton’s risk factors between the deadly domestic violence cases in Dorset to a Dorset sample of victims and offenders in all violence cases during the same time period.FindingsFalse negative risk assessments were found in 67% of the deadly violence cases with prior police contact (45 of 67) not classified by DASH as ‘high risk.’ The false positives in the same time period totalled 12,279 cases of no serious harm among 12,301 cases receiving high risk assessments, for a 99% false positive rate. Possible alternative predictors were found in differences between deadly offenders and controls, both male and female, although it is not known whether these variables were added to the records before or after the deadly violence event. Male offenders in deadly violence cases were 120% more likely to have their police records note a self-harm warning, 20% more likely to have a suicide warning, yet only half as likely to have a mental health warning as control males. Female offenders in deadly violence cases were 355% more likely to have a weapons warning on file, 244% more likely to have a mental health warning and 146% more likely to have a drugs warning than female control case offenders.ConclusionsThe current risk assessment tool (DASH) failed to predict the majority of deadly domestic violence cases over 6 years in Dorset. Other factors could do better, but more research is required before highly accurate forecasting tools can be applied to help save the lives of more domestic abuse victims.

Comparing Empirical and Semi-Empirical Approaches to Forest Biomass Modelling in Different Biomes Using Airborne Laser Scanner Data

Airborne laser scanner (ALS) data are used operationally to support field inventories and enhance the accuracy of forest biomass estimates. Modelling the relationship between ALS and field data is a fundamental step of such applications and the quality of the model is essential for the final accuracy of the estimates. Different modelling approaches and variable transformations have been advocated in the existing literature, but comparisons are few or non-existent. In the present study, two main approaches to modelling were compared: the empirical and semi-empirical approaches. Evaluation of model performance was conducted using a conventional evaluation criterion, i.e., the mean square deviation (MSD). In addition, a novel evaluation criterion, the model error (ME), was proposed. The ME was constructed by combining a MSD expression and a model-based variance estimate. For the empirical approach, multiple regression models were developed with two alternative transformation strategies: square root transformation of the response, and natural logarithmic transformation of both response and predictors. For the semi-empirical approach, a nonlinear regression of a power model form was chosen. Two alternative predictor variables, mean canopy height and top canopy height, were used separately. Results showed that the semi-empirical approach resulted in the smallest MSD in three of five study sites. The empirical approach resulted in smaller ME in the temperate and boreal biomes, while the semi-empirical approach resulted in smaller ME in the tropical biomes.

Phytoplankton absorption predicts patterns in primary productivity in Australian coastal shelf waters

The phytoplankton absorption coefficient (aPHY) has been suggested as a suitable alternate first order predictor of net primary productivity (NPP). We compiled a dataset of surface bio-optical properties and phytoplankton NPP measurements in coastal waters around Australia to examine the utility of an in-situ absorption model to estimate NPP. The magnitude of surface NPP (0.20–19.3 mmol C m−3 d−1) across sites was largely driven by phytoplankton biomass, with higher rates being attributed to the microplankton (>20 μm) size class. The phytoplankton absorption coefficient aPHY for PAR (photosynthetically active radiation; āPHY)) ranged from 0.003 to 0.073 m-1, influenced by changes in phytoplankton community composition, physiology and environmental conditions. The aPHY coefficient also reflected changes in NPP and the absorption model-derived NPP could explain 73% of the variability in measured surface NPP (n = 41; RMSE = 2.49). The absorption model was applied to two contrasting coastal locations to examine NPP dynamics: a high chlorophyll-high variation (HCHV; Port Hacking National Reference Station) and moderate chlorophyll-low variation (MCLV; Yongala National Reference Station) location in eastern Australia using the GIOP-DC satellite aPHY product. Mean daily NPP rates between 2003 and 2015 were higher at the HCHV site (1.71 ± 0.03 mmol C m−3 d−1) with the annual maximum NPP occurring during the austral winter. In contrast, the MCLV site annual NPP peak occurred during the austral wet season and had lower mean daily NPP (1.43 ± 0.03 mmol C m−3 d−1) across the time-series. An absorption-based model to estimate NPP is a promising approach for exploring the spatio-temporal dynamics in phytoplankton NPP around the Australian continental shelf.

International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit

We evaluate three alternative predictors of house price corrections: anticipated tightenings of monetary policy, deviations of house prices from fundamentals, and rapid credit growth. A new cross-country measure of monetary policy expectations based on an international term structure model with time-varying risk premiums is constructed. House price overvaluation is estimated via an asset pricing model. The variables are incorporated into a panel logit regression model that estimates the likelihood of a large house price correction in 18 OECD countries. The results show that corrections are predicted by increases in the market’s forecast of higher policy rates. The estimated degree of house price overvaluation also contains significant information about subsequent price reversals. In contrast to the financial crisis literature, credit growth is less important. All of these variables help forecast recessions.

Correlation between transversal and orthogonal maximal diameters of abdominal aortic aneurysms and alternative rupture risk predictors

PurposeThere is no standard for measuring maximal diameter (Dmax) of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) from computer tomography (CT) images although differences between Dmax evaluated from transversal (axialDmax) or orthogonal (orthoDmax) planes can be large especially for angulated AAAs. Therefore we investigated their correlations with alternative rupture risk indicators as peak wall stress (PWS) and peak wall rupture risk (PWRR) to decide which Dmax is more relevant in AAA rupture risk assessment. Material and methodsThe Dmax values were measured by a trained radiologist from 70 collected CT scans, and the corresponding PWS and PWRR were evaluated using Finite Element Analysis (FEA). The cohort was ordered according to the difference between axialDmax and orthoDmax (Da−o) quantifying the aneurysm angulation, and Spearman's correlation coefficients between PWS/PWRR – orthoDmax/axialDmax were calculated. ResultsThe calculated correlations PWS/PWRR vs. orthoDmax were substantially higher for angulated AAAs (with Da−o≥3mm). Under this limit, the correlations were almost the same for both Dmax values. Analysis of AAAs divided into two groups of angulated (n=38) and straight (n=32) cases revealed that both groups are similar in all parameters (orthoDmax, PWS, PWRR) with the exception of axialDmax (p=0.024). ConclusionsIt was confirmed that orthoDmax is better correlated with the alternative rupture risk predictors PWS and PWRR for angulated AAAs (DA−O≥3mm) while there is no difference between orthoDmax and axialDmax for straight AAAs (DA−O<3mm). As angulated AAAs represent a significant portion of cases it can be recommended to use orthoDmax as the only Dmax parameter for AAA rupture risk assessment.

Alternative predictors in chaotic time series

In the scheme of reconstruction, non-polynomial predictors improve the forecast from chaotic time series. The algebraic manipulation in the Maple environment is the basis for obtaining of accurate predictors. Beyond the different times of prediction, the optional arguments of the computational routines optimize the running and the analysis of global mappings.

Cystatin C as a Marker of Progressing Cardiovascular Events during Coronary Heart Disease.

The role of cystatin C, an inhibitor of cysteine proteases, as an alternative and potent predictor of acute cardiovascular events in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients was examined and compared to that of other markers of cardiorenal abnormalities. The patients with CHD demonstrated elevated serum cystatin C, especially in cases with serious risk of cardiovascular complications. In comparison with other indicators of cardiorenal dysfunction, cystatin C can be viewed as an alternative predictor of cardiovascular complications, although its sensitivity is inferior to that of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and natriuretic peptide.

Possible Alternative Predictors of Failure of Fecal Microbiota Transplant for Therapy of Recurrent C difficile Infection.

Possible Alternative Predictors of Failure of Fecal Microbiota Transplant for Therapy of Recurrent C difficile Infection

Ensemble simulations: folding, unfolding and misfolding of a high-efficiency frameshifting RNA pseudoknot

Massive all-atom molecular dynamics simulations were conducted across a distributed computing network to study the folding, unfolding, misfolding and conformational plasticity of the high-efficiency frameshifting double mutant of the 26 nt potato leaf roll virus RNA pseudoknot. Our robust sampling, which included over 40 starting structures spanning the spectrum from the extended unfolded state to the native fold, yielded nearly 120 μs of cumulative sampling time. Conformational microstate transitions on the 1.0 ns to 10.0 μs timescales were observed, with post-equilibration sampling providing detailed representations of the conformational free energy landscape and the complex folding mechanism inherent to the pseudoknot motif. Herein, we identify and characterize two alternative native structures, three intermediate states, and numerous misfolded states, the latter of which have not previously been characterized via atomistic simulation techniques. While in line with previous thermodynamics-based models of a general RNA folding mechanism, our observations indicate that stem-strand-sequence-separation may serve as an alternative predictor of the order of stem formation during pseudoknot folding. Our results contradict a model of frameshifting based on structural rigidity and resistance to mechanical unfolding, and instead strongly support more recent studies in which conformational plasticity is identified as a determining factor in frameshifting efficiency.

Incorporating heterogeneity into the prediction of total claim amount

This paper proposes an alternative predictor for the total claim amount of individuals that can be used for any type of non-life insurance products in which individuals may have multiple claims within one policy period. The impact of heterogeneity on expected total claim amount is investigated focusing on marginal predictions. Generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is used for the amounts of loss per claim. Closedform expression of the predictor is derived using marginal mean under GLMM and claim count distribution. Empirical studies are performed using a private health insurance data set of a Turkish insurance company. Proposed predictive model provides the lowest prediction errors among competing models according to the mean absolute error criterion.

Does money supply growth contain predictive power for stock returns? Evidence and explanation

We examine the nature of predictive power of money supply growth for stock returns. An understanding of which will be useful for market practitioners and policy makers given the current lack of consensus. In addition, knowledge of this relation can aid our understanding of the risk and cash flow channels of stock price movement. Using monthly data and considering a range of alternative predictor variables, predictive and forecast time horizons, empirical methodologies and measures of stock returns, we find that money supply growth has a negative predictive relation with stock returns. Rolling window forecasts provide confirmatory out-of-sample evidence for the significance of money supply growth as a predictor variable. The use of both returns and dividend growth predictive regressions, as well as a VAR analysis and predictive regressions for size and book-to-market portfolios suggest that relation operates through a risk channel. Higher money supply leads to improving economic conditions and lower (required) returns.

For Those Who Care: The EEect of Public Service Motivation on Sector Selection

Public Service Motivation (PSM) theory suggests the alignment of values may explain sorting into public service work. Evidence suggests that people with high PSM cluster in government and nonprofit organizations. However, the reliance on cross-sectional data leaves open the question of whether observed patterns are the result of public and nonprofit organizations attracting and selecting high PSM people or cultivating PSM through socialization within the sector. Using data from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002), this study analyzes the relationship between motivational bases, such as PSM and extrinsic motivation, and sorting into the public, for-profit, and nonprofit sectors. The results indicate that PSM, measured before labor market entry, significantly predicts the sector a person will select for employment. Moreover, the effect on sector selection does not operate through alternative predictors of sector employment, such as college completion. Rather, PSM predicts sorting into college majors in a manner consistent with sector sorting in the labor market. After empirically investigating the relationship between PSM and sector selection in the labor market, this paper discusses the implications of the results for future public management research and theory.

Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor-C (VEGF-C) Expression Can Not Predict Pelvic Lymph Node Metastases and Response to Neo-adjuvant Chemotherapy in Bulky Cervical Cancer

Objective: To assess whether VEGF-C expression can predict the response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and pelvic lymphnode metastases in bulky cevical cancer.&#x0D; &#x0D; Methods: Seventeen cervical cancer stage IB2 and IIA2 cases during the period of July 2009 until June 2010 were collected consecutively and given neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) PVB prior radical surgery. Response to treatment was evaluated based on the change of tumour size. VEGF-C expression was examined immunohistochemically at tumour biopsy before chemotherapy. The presence of lymphnode metastases histopathologically were obtained from pelvic lymphnode dissection. The difference and correlation of response and metastases on VEGF-C expression were analized statistically. The validity of the cut off percentage of immunopositive cells to VEGF-C to identify non responding and metastatic cases was calculated with the ROC. Multivariate analysis were done to determine the predictor of no response to chemotherapy.&#x0D; &#x0D; Results: Clinical response, using the RECIST version 1.1 criteria, was found in 41.18% cases and lymphnode metastases were found in 27.27% cases. VEGF-C was expressed in all cases. Statistically, there were no significant differences and correlation in response to treatment and pelvic lymphnode metastases on VEGF-C expression. At the cut off ≥ 76% immunopositivity to VEGF-C, the sensitivity to identify no response and the specificity to identify response to NAC are 70.00% and 71.43% respectively (LR+ 2.45 and LR- 0.42);&#x0D; whereas at the cut off ≥ 75% immunopositivity to VEGF-C, the sensitivity to identify lymphnode metastases and the specificity to identify no lymphnode metastases are 100.00% and 75.00% (LR+ 4.0 and LR- 0). With multivariate analysis using logistic regression, the cut off ≥ 76% immunopositive cells to VEGF-C were found to have&#x0D; positive coefficient, largest OR and statistic score, 1.93, 6.88 (96% CI OR 0.45; 104.34) and 41 respectively, to predict non responders in a prediction score model.&#x0D; &#x0D; Conclusion: VEGF-C expression on biopsy specimen bulky cervical cancers can not differentiate cases that respond to NAC and metastases to the pelvic lymphnode from that do not. The cut off ≥ 76% immunopositive cells to VEGF-C in a prediction model can be used as an alternative predictor to identify non responders.&#x0D; [Indones J Obstet Gynecol 2012; 36-3: 144-9]&#x0D; &#x0D; Keywords: bulky cervical cancer, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, response and metastases prediction, VEGF-C immunohistochemistry expression

Initial Mainstream Cultural Orientations Predict Early Social Participation in the Mainstream Cultural Group.

This work adopts a perspective that construes acculturation as a dynamic intergroup process, and social contact with members of the new community as a key mechanism underlying cultural adaptation. We argue that migrants' initial self-reported mainstream cultural orientation constitutes an important antecedent of early social participation in the new community. Results from two longitudinal studies of newly arrived international students ( N = 98 and N = 60) show that more positive initial mainstream cultural orientations prospectively predict higher social participation, specifically in the mainstream group, over the following months. This relation held after controlling for important alternative predictors, namely, extraversion/shyness, mainstream language proficiency, and respiratory sinus arrhythmia, a physiological index of social engagement capacity. These studies focus on the very initial stages of the temporal dynamics of acculturation, contribute to bridging research on acculturation and on intergroup relations, and establish a link between cultural orientations, a subjective attitudinal construct, and concrete social engagement behaviors.

Physiological markers of exercise capacity and lung disease severity in cystic fibrosis.

Peak aerobic capacity (VO2 peak) is an important outcome measure in cystic fibrosis (CF), but measurement is not widely available and can be influenced by patient motivation, pain and fatigue. Alternative markers of disease severity would be helpful. Neural respiratory drive, measured using parasternal intercostal muscle electromyography (EMGpara), reflects the load to capacity balance of the respiratory system and provides a composite measure of pulmonary function impairment in CF. The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between exercise capacity, EMGpara and established measures of pulmonary function in clinically stable adult CF patients. Twenty CF patients (12 males, median (range) age: 22.3 (17.0-43.1) years) performed the 10-m incremental shuttle walk test (ISWT) maximally with contemporaneous measures of aerobic metabolism. EMGpara was recorded from second intercostal space at rest and normalized using peak electromyogram activity obtained during maximum respiratory manoeuvres and expressed as EMGpara%max (EMGpara expressed as a percentage of maximum). VO2 peak was strongly correlated with ISWT distance (r = 0.864, P < 0.0001). Lung gas transfer (TL CO) % predicted was best correlated with VO2 peak (r = 0.842, P < 0.0001) and ISWT distance (r = 0.788, P < 0.0001). EMGpara%max also correlated with VO2 peak (-0.757, P < 0.0001), while the relationships between exercise outcome measures and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1 ) % predicted and forced vital capacity (FVC) % predicted were less strong. A TL CO% predicted of <70.5% was the strongest predictor of VO2 peak <32 mL/min/kg (area under the curve (AUC): 0.96, 100% sensitivity, 83.3% specificity). ISWT distance and EMGpara%max also performed well, with other pulmonary function variables demonstrating poorer predictive ability. TL CO% predicted and EMGpara%max relate strongly to exercise performance markers in CF and may provide alternative predictors of lung disease progression.

Who do you think you are? Medical student socioeconomic status and intention to work in underserved areas.

A frequently cited rationale for increasing the participation of students from low socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds is that it will create a workforce who will choose to work in low SES and medically underserviced communities. Two theoretical arguments, one that supports and one that contradicts this assumption, are proposed to explain the practice location intentions of medical students which we examine in a longitudinal analysis. SES background and future intentions of 351 applicants to an undergraduate medical degree were assessed at Time 1, with intentions re-assessed one year later for 96% of those who were enrolled as medical students. Students from very low (and very high) SES backgrounds indicated lower intention to practice in low SES or medically underserviced areas than those from mid-range SES backgrounds. Males and students from non-English speaking backgrounds indicated less desire to work in low SES areas, perhaps explained by high aspirational motivation. SES accounted for a relatively small amount of variance in practice intentions. Alternate predictors of practice location, including individual values and training effects, and their implications for selection practice, are discussed.

Neonatal Foot Length: An Alternative Predictor of Low Birth Weight Babies in Rural India

Neonatal Foot Length: An Alternative Predictor of Low Birth Weight Babies in Rural India

Intraoperative Arthrogram Predicts Residual Dysplasia after Successful Closed Reduction of DDH.

To determine the incidence of residual dysplasia after closed reduction (CR) of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) and assess correlations between quality of arthrogram-guided CR and residual dysplasia using a new intraoperative radiographic criterion. Data of a consecutive series of 126 patients with DDH in 139 hips treated at our institution by arthrogram-guided CR from March 2006 to June 2013 were reviewed in this retrospective study. There were 23 boys and 103 girls with 88 affected left hips and 51 right hips. The average age at closed reduction was 14 months (range, 7-19 months) and average duration of follow-up 36 months (range, 24-100 months). Femoral head coverage (FHC) and arthrography type (A/B/C) on best reduced arthrographic images, acetabular index (AI) and Wiberg Center-Edge (CE) angle on anteroposterior (AP) pelvis radiograph at latest follow-up were measured. Residual hip dysplasia was determined according to the Harcke acetabular dysplasia radiographic standard. Patients were divided into non-late acetabular dysplasia (non-LACD) and late acetabular dysplasia (LACD) groups according to final results and age at reduction, sex and side compared between these two groups. Correlations between FHC and arthrography type and residual hip dysplasia were analyzed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to analyze sex, AI at CR, arthrography type and FHC with LACD. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the cutoff value for FHC. Forty-five of 139 hips (32.4%) had residual hip dysplasia. Avascular necrosis of the femoral head occurred in 11 hips (7.9%), nine of which had acetabular dysplasia. There were no significant differences between the two groups in age at reduction, sex or side. FHC differed significantly between the two groups (51.2% ± 15.3% vs . 28.5% ± 15.9%, t = 4.718, P = 0.000). A significantly greater percentage of the arthrography Type C group than Type A and B groups had LACD (χ(2) = 17.170, P = 0.017). According to multiple logistic regression analysis, FHC was the only prognostic factor for LACD. There was a clear cutoff value for FHC (30%), under which 81.8% hips were determined as having LACD according to ROC curve analysis. Intraoperative arthrogram-determined FHC is an alternative predictor of residual hip dysplasia after CR of DDH and FHC ≤30% can be considered the criterion for unacceptable reduction.