Alternative Policy Strategies Research Articles

Shaping sustainable tourism: local insights for Svalbard’s future

ABSTRACT While tourism is frequently heralded as a key agent of opportunity and change in the Arctic, transformative change in the polar regions comes with a great deal of uncertainty. The strongly hierarchical Svalbard policy context allows limited action space for expanding tourism or developing new products. Still, Tourism is strictly regulated, and it is debatable whether the local residents have any real say in the shaping of development paths. Nevertheless, understanding local attitudes is always a component in building relationships between public institutions and local stakeholders. Albeit a constraining policy context, knowledge about stakeholder attitudes can provide valuable information about the consequences of alternative policy strategies and interventions that are likely to build or degrade trust in institutions with power. We surveyed the residents of Longyearbyen (N = 238) through an ad-hoc sample to examine attitudes toward effects of tourism, interaction with tourists, and to what extent local attitudes align with or depart from a plausible local interpretation of how key sustainable development goals (SDG) could inform and direct sustainable development of tourism in Svalbard. Current tourism practices face challenges related to several SDGs targeting work conditions, climate change and environmental management.

The choice of monetary regimes in emerging market economies: Inflation targeting versus its alternatives

This paper examines the macroeconomic, financial, and institutional factors that affect the adoption of inflation targeting vis-a-vis alternative monetary policy strategies for 44 emerging market economies during 1990–2017. We employ a multinomial logistic regression with inflation targeting and exchange rate pegs as treatment groups, and intermediary monetary strategies as the baseline group. The main findings from our study are as follows: higher average inflation is associated with lower probability of adopting inflation targeting; while both output growth and its volatility make the adoption of inflation targeting less likely. Concerning the effects of the control variables, financial sector development, central bank independence, greater exposure to capital flows, and the level of economic development are all associated with higher likelihood of adopting inflation targeting, whereas higher public debt, trade openness, and money growth have the opposite effect. Macroeconomic conditions seem to have different impact on the choice of inflation targeting and exchange rate pegs, whereas similar institutional conditions are conducive to the implementation of both regimes. Finally, the effects of macroeconomic and institutional conditions do not depend on the type of inflation targeting.

Health and Society: A brief overview of journal articles summary

In this issue of Medicus journal we collected articles which are focused on health patterns, health care and economy, as well as health behaviours. A study from Germany shows models of care for elderly people and the alternative policy strategies such as to stay at home with the help of live-in care. Another study reports on the attitudes (acceptability, preferences, and needs) of Albanian physiotherapists and the general population toward telerehabilitation. This cross-sectional observational study is conducted among the physiotherapists and the general population asking them about their experiences with telerehabilitation in physiotherapy in order to evaluate how recognized and applied is this field in Albania. There are included two literature reviews in this issue. One literature review is about Alzheimer’s disease, one of the most prevalent neurodegenerative illness. It is not yet fully understood how neuronal shrinkage and synaptic loss occur across the cerebral cortex and the interplay of genetic and environmental risk factors. This paper gives an overview of Alzheimer’s disease and its pathogenesis. The second literature review aims to understand the kidney-brain interconnection. Cognitive impairment is a significant concern in chronic kidney disease patients, manifesting as a spectrum ranging from mild cognitive deficits to clinically relevant dementia. This literature review explores the clinical significance and the potential mechanisms underlying cognitive impairment in patients with chronic kidney disease. Its approach also highlights ongoing research initiatives, structural and hemodynamic similarities between the kidney and brain. It is included an epidemiological study which measures the incidence and prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in the Elbasan district of Albania during the last decade. The study also reports the correlation of different genetic, lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol consumption, meat and fat consumption) and comorbidities with other chronic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in patients diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis. Pneumomediastinum is a rare complication that occurs in patients with Pneumonia caused by COVID-19 and the authors of a case report shows how a timely diagnosis of pneumomediastinum in patients with Covid-19 would prevent the occurrence of life-threatening complications.

Monetary policy and financial stability

The 2008 Global Financial Crisis called into question the narrow focus on price stability of inflation targeting regimes. This paper studies the relationship between price stability and financial stability by analyzing alternative monetary policy strategies for an economy that experiences endogenous financial crises due to excessive household sector leverage. We reach three conclusions. First, a central bank can improve both price stability and financial stability by adopting an aggressive inflation targeting regime, in the absence of the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on nominal interest rates. Second, in the presence of the ZLB constraint, an aggressive inflation targeting regime may undermine both price stability and financial stability. Third, a leaning against the wind policy can be detrimental to both price stability and financial stability when the credit cycle is driven by countercyclical household sector leverage. In this environment, leaning with credit spreads can be more effective.

Analysis of Alternative Policy Strategies for Reducing Work Stress

This research is to answer and offer alternative policy strategies for reducing work stress. Work stress consists of individual level and group level to analyze of effect on employee performance. This type of research is correlational research. Population in this study is PT Centrindo Palmax employees, totaling 150 employees. Sampling in this study used a simple random sampling method with a specified sample of 100 respondents. To answer the hypothesis using multiple linear regression analysis. The results show that individual level has a positive and significant effect on employee performance. Group level has a positive and significant effect on employee performance

Strategi Kebijakan Impor Sapi Berbasis Manajemen Risiko di Masa Pandemi

This study aims to analyze potential risks and risk mitigation in the company's supply chain to minimize the company's potential losses and develop a policy strategy for importing feeder cattle during the COVID-19 pandemic as a framework (blueprint) for company readiness in the future as well as in handling food security, especially to meet the domestic demand for beef, which is currently only able to meet 70% of the total demand. In the early stages of the research, the House of Risk (HOR) method is employed to identify risk variables (risk events and risk agents) and risk mitigation. The results obtained from the risk analysis are used to develop corporate policy strategies. The results of the ANP-BOCR analysis show that the policy strategy that is set as the highest priority is the improvement and enhancement of operation and production processes (PPOP). The alternative policy strategy with the lowest priority is implementing a Go-Public (KGP) policy. Improvement and enhancement of operation and production processes carried out in the company include: 1) application of complete feed; 2) production efficiency and mechanization; and 3) implementation of Internet of Things (IoT) and Digitalization. The results of the Rater Agreement (W) show that all respondents (experts) have a fairly high agreement on the priority of the policy strategy set, with Kendall's W coefficient value of 0.5.
 
 Keywords: analytic network process, BOCR, Covid-19, house of risk

Persepsi Kelompok Tani Terhadap Multifungsi Sawah Dan Strategi Keberlanjutan Kebijakan PLP2B Di Kota Bogor

The area of rice fields in the city of Bogor continues to decline. The cause of the decline in the area of rice fields is the development of residential, industrial, and public infrastructure. The conversion of paddy fields occurred in the city of Bogor. To restrain the rate of conversion of paddy fields, the government issued a policy in the form of Bogor City Regional Regulation No. 16 of 2019 concerning the Protection of Sustainable Food Agricultural Land (Perda PLP2B). For the PLP2B Regional Regulation policy to run well, it is necessary to know the perception of the rice farmer group leader towards the multifunctionality of paddy fields as well as the policy strategy for the sustainability of paddy fields in the city of Bogor. This study uses two analytical methods: descriptive analysis of the Likert scale and analysis of Preference Ranking Organization METHODs for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE). This study indicates scale that rice farmers have a good perspective,they still feel the various benefits of the existence of paddy fields. The alternative policy strategy of the local government of Bogor City to maintain the sustainability of paddy fields is to develop human resources (farmers) and agricultural services.

KAJIAN STATUS MUTU AIR, INVENTARISASI SUMBER PENCEMAR DAN ALTERNATIF STRATEGI PENGENDALIAN PENCEMARAN SUNGAI BARABAI KABUPATEN HULU SUNGAI TENGAH

Barabai River is one of the rivers in Hulu Sungai Tengah District which is widely used by the surrounding community for household, agricultural and industrial activities. Community activities around the Barabai River certainly have an impact on the decline in river water quality because the waste produced generally goes directly to other environments without prior processing. This study aims to analyze the water quality status of the Barabai River, take an inventory of the potential sources of water pollution in the Barabai River and formulate alternative strategies for controlling water pollution in the Barabai River. The research was located on the Barabai River along ± 43.2 km which started from Tanjung Village, Hantakan District, towards Jaranih Village, Pandawan Subdistrict, to Tabat Village, Labuan Amas Utara Subdistrict. The water quality status of the Barabai River was calculated using secondary data from the 2017-2020 river water quality monitoring results sourced from the Department of Environment and Transportation of Hulu Sungai Tengah District using the pollutant index method. Potential sources of pollutants in the Barabai River were inventoried based on domestic, industrial and agricultural activities around the monitoring point for water quality sampling by collecting secondary data and field survey results, then a map of the distribution of each water pollutant source was described using the Geographic Information System (GIS) application. Alternative policy strategies for controlling pollution of the Barabai River were analyzed using the SWOT method based on the Regulation of the State Minister of the Environment Number 01 of 2010 concerning the management of water pollution control. The results showed that in 2018 the water quality status of the Barabai River met the quality standards while in 2017, 2019 and 2020 the status of the water quality was lightly polluted with parameters that did not meet the quality standards, namely Total suspended solid (TSS), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) and Fecal Coli. Potential sources of pollutants in the Barabai River consisted of domestic pollutant sources originating from residential activities in the Barabai River area, potential sources of Pollution Point Source (Institutions) originating from ± 21 types of businesses /activities located in Hulu Sungai Tengah District and potential sources of Non-Point pollutants Source coming from agricultural activities of rice fields and plantation. Alternative policy strategies for controlling the pollution of the Barabai River can be done by adding water quality monitoring points in industrial areas, improving river water quality, raising public awareness of waste management through sustainable and targeted socialization, tightening supervision of compliance with business people, expanding coordination inter-agency, controlling waste entering rivers, determining the capacity of water pollutant loads, constructing a wastewater treatment plants (IPAL), carry out an inventory and identification of water pollutant sources based on the Regulation of the Minister of the Environment Number 01 of 2010, and stipulate a Regional Regulation on licensing for the disposal of wastewater to water sources.

Real-world and bottom-up methodology for emission inventory development and scenario design in medium-sized cities

Efficient management of air quality requires a comprehensive emission inventory to support decision-making on air quality improvement. This article presents a comprehensive framework for detailed emission inventory development in cities with low-quality basic data, which examines the emission of primary criteria pollutants (CO, NOx, SO2, PM2.5, PM10, and VOC) from mobile sources, residential, commercial, and public services, fuel stations, transport terminals, energy conversion sections, and industries. This research was applied to Tabriz in Northwest Iran, one of the polluted medium-sized cities with a population of 1.77 million. Results show the city daily emission per capita is 569.8 g of CO, 68.6 g of NOx, 38.6 g of VOC, 17.6 g of SOx, and 3.7 g of PM. Vehicular emissions accounted for 98% of CO, 91% of VOCs, 61% of NOx, and 56% of PM; meaning alternative policy strategies in vehicles would reduce emissions rapidly. Fifteen applicable and effective scenarios in transport and one concerning stationary sources were proposed and reduction potential of them was evaluated. Effectiveness of the public transport improvement and replacement of old passenger cars were founded the key scenarios. These two alternatives decrease 14 and 2 tons of SO2 and 6797 and 2394 tons of NOx annually with the cost of $99.5 MM and $366.5 MM, respectively. The findings of this study provides the choice of travel method by each citizen is a function of cost, speed, comfort and safety of travel; therefore, all the requirements of any scenarios must be fully considered in the implementation step.

Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: A model-based analysis for the euro area

A calibrated New Keynesian model of the euro area is used to evaluate the stabilization properties of alternative monetary policy strategies when the natural rate of interest is low (“new normal”) and the probability of reaching the effective lower bound (ELB) is non-negligible. Price level targeting is the most effective strategy in terms of stabilizing inflation and output and reducing the duration and frequency of ELB episodes. Temporary price level targeting is also effective in mitigating the ELB constraint, although its stabilization properties are inferior to those of price level targeting. Backward-looking average inflation targeting performs well and is preferable to inflation targeting. The effectiveness of these alternative strategies hinges upon the commitment of a central bank to keeping the policy rate “lower for longer” and is influenced by agents’ expectation formation mechanism.

Price Level Risk and Some Long-Run Implications of Alternative Monetary Policy Strategies

This note focuses on the longer-run implications of alternative monetary policy strategies for the evolution of the price level. The analysis compares the properties of optimal policy in regimes ranging from pure inflation targeting (IT), to a form of weighted-average inflation targeting (WAIT), to pure price level targeting (PLT). Strategies such as WAIT and PLT tend to limit the downward drift in the path of the price level and also mitigate the uncertainty surrounding the expected path of the price level. The influence of alternative monetary policy strategies on the evolution of the price level may have some important long-run implications for entities or groups that rely heavily on long-term nominal debt. Some simple empirical estimates suggest the real value of existing Treasury debt could be boosted significantly in moving from a world in which the ZLB constraint rarely binds to one in which it regularly binds. Similarly, data from the Survey of Consumer Finances indicate that households at lower income levels, and particularly those with mortgage or educational loans outstanding, are exposed to significant price level risk. As a result, such households can experience a significant reduction in their real wealth, on average, in the transition to a world with frequently binding ZLB constraints. The WAIT and PLT regimes significantly mitigate these potential costs for these groups.

Estimates of the COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate for 48 African Countries: A Model-based Analysis

Introduction: The infection fatality rate (IFR) is key to determining the effect of the pandemic at population level, as well as the effects of public policies and regulations. We examine global data from 48 African countries to estimate the SARS-CoV-2 IFR. Methods: We analyzed time series data on the confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 disease outbreak across Africa. We define IFR as the ratio of the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 (numerator) and the total number of people in the population who were infected by the virus (denominator). We controlled for the upward bias associated with the denominator, to accommodate for the untested individuals by adjusting for population density, population aged 65 years and older, population with basic handwashing facilities, extreme poverty, diabetes prevalence, and death rate from cardiovascular disease in a Bayesian prediction model based on the technique of Monte Carlo. Results: We analyzed data on the 135,126 confirmed cases and 3,922 deaths from COVID-19 disease outbreak in Africa through May 30, 2020. After adjusting for potential risk factors in the Bayesian model, we predicted a total of 1,686,879 COVID-19 infections, corresponding to 13 infections per confirmed case. The IFR in Africa was estimated to be 0.23% (95%CI: 0.14% to 0.33). Country-specific rates varied from 0.004% in Botswana and Central African Republic, to 1.53% in Nigeria, respectively. The estimated IFR is twelvefold higher than WHO reported estimate (0.02%) from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation map shows concentrations of extreme IFR in four countries: Morocco, Nigeria, Cameroon, and South Africa. Conclusion: The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 can vary substantially across different locations, and this may reflect differences in demographics, underlying health issues in the population, capacity of the healthcare system, positive health seeking behavior, as well as other factors. Variability in testing and cause-of-death data across African countries might have impacted on the results. Our model and our estimates can help disease and policy modelers to obtain more accurate predictions for the epidemiology of the disease and the effect of alternative policy strategies to contain this pandemic.

Law and Inclusive Urban Development: Lessons from Chile’s Enabling Markets Housing Policy Regime

Abstract This Article addresses the recent international trend in development theory and practice towards an “enabling markets” approach in housing policy. This approach delegates to housing markets the responsibility of providing affordable housing and therefore limits the role of government to stimulating the private sector through targeted subsidies. I ask whether an enabling markets policy constitutes an adequate regulatory strategy for the provision of sustainable housing solutions for the urban poor. I explore this question through an in-depth case study of Chile’s housing policy regime, which was a pioneer in the implementation of an enabling markets strategy; for over four decades, successive governments have been able to provide access to housing to a vast portion of low-income residents, in the context of a regulatory framework that favors private real estate development. However, this success story is marred by an important failure. Through its market-based regime, Chile has routinely clustered low-income families on cheap land, usually located at the periphery of the country’s urban centers, and often in areas with poor public and private services. The main argument I present in this Article is that Chile’s commitment towards an enabling markets regulatory regime has helped to reinforce the pattern of urban exclusion, and has prevented the government from experimenting with alternative policy strategies that may be more effective in promoting inclusionary housing. The main limitation of the enabling markets strategy is that it assumes that the delivery of targeted subsidies will generate an adequate supply of affordable housing for the low-income sector. The Chilean experience shows that this assumption is false, because subsidies are rarely sufficient to enable beneficiaries to compete for well-located housing, while private companies have strong incentives to agglomerate low-income housing in the least desirable urban areas. I argue that, in order to promote urban inclusion, governments need to experiment with an alternative policy strategy that I call a “planning housing markets” approach, which involves using land-use governance mechanisms to ensure that low-income housing is fairly distributed within cities.

Land use mediated GHG emissions and spillovers from increased consumption of bioplastics

Bioplastic production is a small but fast growing sector in the global bioeconomy, which may benefit from public support measures in the future as governments seek to promote more sustainable consumption patterns. Here we assess the potential net economy-wide impacts of a 5% bioplastic target relative to current plastic consumption in the main producing regions. We compare two alternative policy strategies to achieve the target in a general equilibrium framework that allows for substitution between conventional and bio-based plastics: a subsidy on bioplastics versus a tax on fossil-based plastic consumption. Our study is the first to quantify global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from an increased demand for bioplastics on a global scale, produced from arable crops, considering both direct and indirect land use change (LUC). The tax provokes a contraction of all sectors that employ plastics, which leads to a drop of 0.07% in global real GDP, whereas the subsidy has no significant effect on the global economy. Both tax and subsidy reduce world demand for petroleum products, by 0.37% and 0.07%, respectively, boosting demand for sugar- and starch-based feedstock in the bioplastic industry. This leads to emissions from LUC globally, which correspond to a carbon payback time of 22 years on average, with the associated annual abatement costs of over US$2000 per tonne of CO2-eq. The tax has greater GHG reduction potential in bioplastic producing regions but generates greater economic and environmental spillover effects in countries that do not enforce the target. Results show that promoting bioplastic consumption is not a cost-effective strategy for climate change mitigation if based on conventional feedstock, due to market-mediated GHG emissions from LUC. Bioplastics are not necessarily more sustainable than conventional polymers just because they are bio-based, although further assessment of potential environmental gains associated with biodegradability and recyclability is desirable.

Using Data on Social Influence and Collective Action for Parameterizing a Geographically-Explicit Agent-Based Model for the Diffusion of Soil Conservation Efforts

Social influence affects individual decision-making on soil conservation. Understanding the emergent diffusion of collective conservation effort is relevant to natural resource management at the river basin level. This study focuses on the effect of subjective norms and collective action on the diffusion of Soil Conservation Effort (SCE) in the Lake Naivasha basin (Kenya) for the period 1965–2010. A geographically-explicit Agent-Based Model (ABM) version of the CONSUMAT model was developed: the CONSERVAT model. In our model, we have represented heterogeneity in the physical environment and in the social network using empirical data. To parameterize the model, physical data, and social data from a household survey (n = 307) were used. Model simulation results show that it is possible to reproduce empirical spatiotemporal diffusion patterns of SCE levels which are quite sensitive to the way in which social survey data are used to initialize the model. Overall, this study demonstrates (i) that social survey data can effectively be used for parameterization of a geographically-explicit ABM, and (ii) that empirical knowledge on natural environment characteristics and social phenomena can be used to build an agent-based model at the river basin level. This study is an important first step towards including subjective norms for evaluating the effectiveness of alternative policy strategies for natural resource management.

Land use mediated GHG emissions and spillovers from increased bioplastic consumption

Bioplastic production is a small but fast growing sector in the global bioeconomy that may benefit from future public support measures as governments seek to promote more sustainable consumption patterns. Here we assess the potential net economy-wide impacts of a 5% bioplastic target relative to current plastic consumption in leading producing regions. We compare two alternative policy strategies to achieve the target in a general equilibrium framework that allows for substitution between conventional and bio-based plastics: a subsidy on bioplastics vs. a tax on fossil-based plastic consumption. Our study is the first to quantify global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from an increased demand for bioplastics produced from conventional crops, considering both direct and indirect land use change (LUC). The tax generates a contraction of all sectors that employ plastics and hence to a 0.07% drop in global real GDP, whereas the subsidy has no significant effect on the global economy. Both policy scenarios lead to a reduction in the worldwide demand for petroleum products, by 0.08% and 0.40% respectively, although a substantial increase in the demand for sugar- and starch-based feedstock is observed, driven by the bioplastic industry. Due to direct and indirect LUC that occur at global scale, GHG emissions increase rather than decrease, by 0.96% with the subsidy and 5.01% with the tax. Trade mediated effects also generate land and GHG spillovers in countries that do not enforce the target. Results show that promoting bioplastic consumption is not effective for climate change mitigation if based on conventional biomass feedstock when emissions from LUC are taken into account, although it can contribute to oil security in the main plastic producing regions. A biomass resource base does not guarantee the sustainability of bioplastics vis-a-vis fossil-based polymers, although further assessment of potential environmental gains associated with biodegradability and recyclability is desirable.

Managing future air quality in megacities: Co-benefit assessment for Delhi

Urbanization, population and economic growth in Indian megacities like Delhi have resulted in an increase in energy and transportation demand leading to severe air pollution and related health impacts, as well as to the rapid growth in the greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, an integrated assessment of air quality and climate policies for Indian cities – with a particular focus on National Capital Territory of Delhi, has been carried out. We have developed emission inventory of air pollutants and greenhouse gases for the base year (2010) and evaluated the impact of current policies on emission projections by 2030 in the business-as-usual scenario. Emissions of coarse and fine particulate matter are projected to be 51% and 15% higher in 2030 as compared to present. As the current legislations do not indicate progress towards the achievement of the Indian National Ambient Air Quality Standards in Delhi, we explored the effectiveness of additional emission control strategies with either advanced end-of-pipe emission controls or low carbon policies. Relative to the baseline scenario, the set of alternative policy strategies would reduce emissions rapidly in 2030. The results revealed that air quality policies under various scenarios could also have co-benefits of reducing carbon emissions. At the same time, the results suggest that low carbon policies would be more efficient to cut emissions as compared to advanced end-of-pipe emission control policies. However, their implementation could be limited by the availability of clean fuels. In the climate policy scenario, carbon emission in 2030 is estimated to decrease by 19% relative to baseline. Additional controls combined with low carbon policies like controlling non-industrial emissions create an opportunity to further enhance the scope for co-benefits and to attain the air quality standards in Delhi.

SIMULASI MODEL SWOT-AHP DALAM PENENTUAN PILIHAN ALTERNATIF STRATEGI PENGEMBANGAN PERGURUAN TINGGI VOKASI D3

This study aims to apply the concept of SWOT combined with Analytic Hierarcy Process (AHP) in the determination of alternative policy or development strategies. The data used in this study are hypothetical data simulated in the SWOT-AHP model. Given that this study is a model simulation, there are several assumptions used before the data is simulated into the SWOT-AHP model. There are three development alternatives assumed in this study: (1) college diversification and differentiation, (2) development of university into polytechnic or D4 or S1, and (3) development of supporting business unit of university. The three alternatives are analyzed by SWOT-AHP approach in order to determine appropriate development alternatives through 32 questions. The result of the study show that the SWOT-AHP model can be used in the determination of alternative college development. In the implementation, the number of respondents, as well as the parties involved need to be adjusted in order to provide optimal result.

PENDEKATAN TEORITIS ANALISIS SUMBER-SUMBER INFLASI

The Theory Approach of Inflation Determinant Analysis has the goal to identify the sources of inflation and finding the alternative policy strategy to stabilizing the inflation. According to the inflation decomposition, the source of inflation is core or underlying inflation, noncore inflation, and noise inflation. According to the expected-augmented Phillips curve, the deviation of inflation to the expected inflation is sourced from supply shocks, the deviation of economic growth rate to the natural rate, and the deviation of unemployment rate to the natural rate. According to the dynamic monetary policy inconsistent, inflation is sourced from inflation target, the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate, the deviation of unemployment rate to natural rate, and supply shock. According to the credibility monetary policy, inflation is sourced from expected inflation and the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate. According to the inflation composition, the deviation of inflation to expected inflation is sourced from noncore inflation and noise inflation. So that the relation between the expected-augmented Phillips curvel, the dynamic monetary policy inconsistent, and the credibility monetary policy is show that the noncore inflation and the noise inflation determined by the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate, the deviation of unemployment rate to natural rate, and supply shock. The conclution of this theory is show that the equilibrium in economic growth target and economic growth to natural rate, unemployment rate to natural rate is create the equilibrium in inflation and expected inflation. So the alternative policy stategy is increase in economic growth to the natural rate or decrease unemployment rate to the natural rate. From the side of inflation decomposition, increase in economic growth to the natural rate or decrease in unemployment rate to the natural rate is the same to maintaine the stabilizing in administered inflation, volatile food inflation, and traded goods inflation. From the side monetary policy, the stabilizing in volatile food inflation and traded goods inflation is created if increasing in monetary growth directed to small and medium business, because the small and medium business is absorpt more employment than the big business. From the side fiscal policy, the stabilizing in administered inflation is created if the government can eliminate the corruption in government projects. Eliminating the corruption in government projects will eliminate increase in price of strategic commodities, and it increase in social welfare.

PENDEKATAN TEORITIS ANALISIS SUMBER-SUMBER INFLASI

The Theory Approach of Inflation Determinant Analysis has the goal to identify the sources of inflation and finding the alternative policy strategy to stabilizing the inflation. According to the inflation decomposition, the source of inflation is core or underlying inflation, noncore inflation, and noise inflation. According to the expected-augmented Phillips curve, the deviation of inflation to the expected inflation is sourced from supply shocks, the deviation of economic growth rate to the natural rate, and the deviation of unemployment rate to the natural rate. According to the dynamic monetary policy inconsistent, inflation is sourced from inflation target, the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate, the deviation of unemployment rate to natural rate, and supply shock. According to the credibility monetary policy, inflation is sourced from expected inflation and the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate.
 According to the inflation composition, the deviation of inflation to expected inflation is sourced from noncore inflation and noise inflation. So that the relation between the expected-augmented Phillips curvel, the dynamic monetary policy inconsistent, and the credibility monetary policy is show that the noncore inflation and the noise inflation determined by the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate, the deviation of unemployment rate to natural rate, and supply shock. The conclution of this theory is show that the equilibrium in economic growth target and economic growth to natural rate, unemployment rate to natural rate is create the equilibrium in inflation and expected inflation. So the alternative policy stategy is increase in economic growth to the natural rate or decrease unemployment rate to the natural rate. From the side of inflation decomposition, increase in economic growth to the natural rate or decrease in unemployment rate to the natural rate is the same to maintaine the stabilizing in administered inflation, volatile food inflation, and traded goods inflation.
 From the side monetary policy, the stabilizing in volatile food inflation and traded goods inflation is created if increasing in monetary growth directed to small and medium business, because the small and medium business is absorpt more employment than the big business. From the side fiscal policy, the stabilizing in administered inflation is created if the government can eliminate the corruption in government projects. Eliminating the corruption in government projects will eliminate increase in price of strategic commodities, and it increase in social welfare.