Alternative Planning Scenarios Research Articles

TRIM4Post-Mining: Transition Information Modelling for Attractive Post-Mining Landscapes—A Conceptual Framework

TRIM4Post-Mining is a H2020/RFCS-funded project that brings together a consortium of European experts from industry and academia to develop an integrated information modelling system. This is designed to support decision making and planning during the transition from coal exploitation to a revitalized post-mining landscape, enabling infrastructure development for agricultural and industrial utilization, and contributing to the recovery of energy and materials from coal mining dumps. The smart system will be founded upon a high-resolution spatiotemporal database, utilizing state-of-the-art multi-scale and multi-sensor monitoring technologies that characterize dynamic processes in coal waste dumps related to timely, dependent deformation and geochemical processes. It will integrate efficient methods for operational and post-mining monitoring, comprehensive spatiotemporal data analytics, feature extraction, and predictive modelling; this will allow for the identification of potential contamination areas and the forecasting of geotechnical risks and ground conditions. For the interactive exploration of alternative land-use planning scenarios—in terms of residual risks, technical feasibility, environmental and social impact, and affordability—up-to-date data and models will be embedded in an interactive planning system based on Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality technology, forming a TRIM—a Transition Information Modelling System. This contribution presents the conceptual approach and main constituents, and describes the state-of-the-art and detailed anticipated methodological approach for each of the constituents. This is supported by the presentation of the first results and a discussion of future work. An anticipated second contribution will focus on the main findings, technology readiness and a discussion of future work.

Evaluation of Ecosystem Services in Mining Basins: An Application in the Piedmont Region (Italy)

Mining activities impact on the territorial system in various ways, affecting its environmental and socio-economic components. Specific evaluation tools can support decision-making processes in the context of the sustainable planning and management of mining activities. Within the evaluation procedures of mining activities, a growing interest in the analysis of Ecosystem Services (ES) is emerging. ES refer to the benefits that the natural system delivers to society, linking the health of ecosystems and human well-being. Starting from a real-world case related to the adoption of the Regional Plan of Mining Activities (PRAE) of the Piedmont region (Northern Italy), the paper aims to explore the ES valuation by considering three different mining quarries. The state of the art of the basins is compared with alternative planning scenarios from the point of view of the ES produced. The valuation is developed through GIS and the Simulsoil software, detecting the biophysical benefits produced and estimating their economic performance. The simulation results can be used to support the formulation of planning strategies, estimating the trade-offs in terms of competitive land-use values. The study also demonstrates that the integration of ES into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) can produce a comprehensive impact assessment of a mining project, guaranteeing the protection and valorisation of the environmental system.

Modeling direct above-ground carbon loss due to urban expansion in Zanzibar City Region, Tanzania

Abstract Expansion of urban fabric on carbon storages is estimated to cause loss of 1.38 Pg of Above-Ground Carbon (AGC) in pan-tropics between 2000 and 2030. This would be approximately 5% of all emissions caused by tropical land use changes. Despite the significance of the phenomenon, these emissions are rarely measured, monitored, or addressed in climate change mitigation plans, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, we demonstrated a state-of-the-art approach predicting AGC loss of Zanzibar City Region under multiple alternative urban planning scenarios between 2013 and 2030. The AGC information was modeled based on field measured forest inventory sample plots and RapidEye satellite data from 2013, while the future urban expansion model was calibrated with data of happened expansion between 2004, 2009 and 2013, and geospatial independent variables influencing the expansion patterns. This model was then projected until 2030, while alternative urban planning scenarios were integrated to the model by modifying the geospatial variables. The combination of these two models indicates that 42,000 Mg or 15% of total AGC in Zanzibar City Region can be anticipated to be lost by 2030 due to urban expansion. Majority of the loss will take place in the agroforest and fruit tree plantations surrounding the city, while natural forest face limited impacts. None of the tested alternative urban planning scenarios significantly impact the loss of AGC compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Therefore, alternative policies and plans are seriously needed to address the issue in Zanzibar. These could include promoting urban densification, directing urban expansion to low carbon areas, improving soil carbon management, and preparing an urban forestry and greenery strategy. All in all, the study indicates that data and methods are available for monitoring and predicting the phenomenon in Sub-Saharan Africa. Research based on a comparable methodology should be produced from all the main cities in the region that are surrounded by significant carbon storages and facing high urban expansion rates to support climate change mitigation.

Modeling direct above-ground carbon loss due to urban expansion in Zanzibar City Region, Tanzania

Expansion of urban fabric on carbon storages is estimated to cause loss of 1.38 Pg of Above-Ground Carbon (AGC) in pan-tropics between 2000 and 2030. This would be approximately 5% of all emissions caused by tropical land use changes. Despite the significance of the phenomenon, these emissions are rarely measured, monitored, or addressed in climate change mitigation plans, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, we demonstrated a state-of-the-art approach predicting AGC loss of Zanzibar City Region under multiple alternative urban planning scenarios between 2013 and 2030. The AGC information was modeled based on field measured forest inventory sample plots and RapidEye satellite data from 2013, while the future urban expansion model was calibrated with data of happened expansion between 2004, 2009 and 2013, and geospatial independent variables influencing the expansion patterns. This model was then projected until 2030, while alternative urban planning scenarios were integrated to the model by modifying the geospatial variables. The combination of these two models indicates that 42,000 Mg or 15% of total AGC in Zanzibar City Region can be anticipated to be lost by 2030 due to urban expansion. Majority of the loss will take place in the agroforest and fruit tree plantations surrounding the city, while natural forest face limited impacts. None of the tested alternative urban planning scenarios significantly impact the loss of AGC compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Therefore, alternative policies and plans are seriously needed to address the issue in Zanzibar. These could include promoting urban densification, directing urban expansion to low carbon areas, improving soil carbon management, and preparing an urban forestry and greenery strategy. All in all, the study indicates that data and methods are available for monitoring and predicting the phenomenon in Sub-Saharan Africa. Research based on a comparable methodology should be produced from all the main cities in the region that are surrounded by significant carbon storages and facing high urban expansion rates to support climate change mitigation.

Scenario modelling as planning evidence to improve access to emergency obstetric care in eastern Indonesia.

The rate of maternal deaths in remote areas in eastern Indonesia–where geographic conditions are difficult and the standard of infrastructure is poor–is high. Long travel times needed to reach emergency obstetric care (EMOC) is one cause of maternal death. District governments in eastern Indonesia need effective planning to improve access to EMOC. The aim of this study was to develop a scenario modelling tool to be used in planning to improve access to EMOC in eastern Indonesia. The scenario model was developed using the geographic information system tool in NetLogo. This model has two inputs: the location of the EMOC facility (PONED) and the travel cost of moving across geographical features in the rainy and dry seasons. We added a cost-benefit analysis to the model: cost is the budget for building the infrastructure; benefit is the number of people who can travel to the EMOC in less than 1 hour if the planned infrastructure is built. We introduced the tool to representative midwives from all districts of Nusa Tenggara Timur province and to staff of Kupang district planning agency. We found that the tool can model accessibility to EMOC based on weather conditions; compare alternative infrastructure planning scenarios based on cost-benefit analysis; enable users to identify and mark poor infrastructure; and model travel across the ocean. Lay people can easily use the tool through interactive scenario modelling: midwives can use it for evidence to support planning proposals to improve access to EMOC in their district; district planning agencies can use it to choose the best plan to improve access to EMOC. Scenario modelling has potential for use in evidence-based planning to improve access to EMOC in low-income and lower-middle-income countries with poor infrastructure, difficult geography conditions, limited budgets and lack of trained personnel.

Quantitative study on environment and energy information for land use planning scenarios in eco-city planning stage

In this study, we propose a series of urban planning strategies for evaluating possibilities in urban planning scenarios, with the objective of building a “low-carbon green city.” We describe the process of constructing an Environment and Energy Planning Information database (E-GIS DB) and experimentally evaluate this for a case study area in a planned city. The construction of the E-GIS DB comprises: (a) collection of urban planning data, (b) consolidation of the urban space data into a single layer and creation of an overlaying 200 m × 200 m mesh in the area of interest, (c) calculation of building contents (use, scale, and structure/material), land use/cover, and altitude, and (d) derivation of a representative value for each factor in the mesh unit, and distribution of attributes across the area of interest. Based on the E-GIS DB, we considered one baseline and 22 alternative urban planning scenarios across the three stages of zoning plan, land use plan, and district unit plan, which exhibit variations in building scale and land cover. Statistical analysis shows that the environmental planning factors in the E-GIS DB (especially urban density) differ significantly between the three planning stages. Considering the precision of environmental and energy predictions, the construction of an E-GIS DB is recommended at district unit plan, land use plan, and zoning plan stages, in that order. The district unit planning stage is the most appropriate because it is closest to the realization of the urban development plan. The urban scenarios are assigned to three representative categories based on environmental and energy use characteristics: (a) scenarios with unacceptably high urban air temperature and energy use, (b) optimal scenarios, which exhibit the best cooling effect and low energy use, and (c) sub-optimal scenarios that must either be improved to achieve optimum environmental and energy outcomes, or else be replaced with an alternative scenario from group (b). When more optimal scenarios (recommended group for improved environmental performance and lower energy use) were applied, lower bound of FAR for building complexes was formed and eco-friendly land coverage such as soil and green cover was increased by 150% and 170%, respectively, which induced and urban cooling effect and resulted in energy savings. Subsequently, urban air temperature and total daily energy demand on the hottest summer day was lowered by 1.5 °C and approximately 100 W/m2 compared to the most unacceptable scenario.

Mapping and assessing ecosystem services to support urban planning: A case study on brownfield regeneration in Trento, Italy

This study explores the use of ecosystem service (ES) knowledge to support urban planning in the assessment of future scenarios. The case study concerns the prioritszation of brownfield regeneration interventions in the city of Trento (Italy). Alternative planning scenarios considering the conversion of existing brownfields into new urban parks are assessed and compared. The assessment focuses on two ES of critical importance for the city, namely microclimate regulation and nature-based recreation. The benefits of the different scenarios are quantified based on the number of expected beneficiaries broken down into different vulnerability classes and then compared through a multi-criteria analysis. Three combinations of criteria and weights reflect different planning objectives and related decision-makers’ orientations about what ES and beneficiary groups should be prioritised. The application demonstrates the potential for ES assessments to support urban planning processes in the specific phase of assessment and selection of alternatives, by meeting the requirements in terms of both sensitivity to small-scale changes in land uses or management activities and capacity to capture simultaneous variations in supply and demand of multiple ES. Being coherent with socially-orientated planning objectives, indicators based on ES demand and beneficiaries can effectively convey information about ES in planning decisions. Multi-criteria analysis is an effective way to integrate multiple ES assessments with other information about costs and benefits of planning scenarios, exploring diverse stakeholder perspectives and balancing competing objectives in a rational and transparent way.

A GIS-based tool for an integrated assessment of spatial planning trade-offs with aquaculture

The increasing demand for protein from aquaculture will trigger a global expansion of the sector in coastal and offshore waters. While contributing to food security, potential conflicts with other traditional activities such as fisheries or tourism are inevitable, thus calling for decision-support tools to assess aquaculture planning scenarios in a multi-use context. Here we introduce the AquaSpace tool, one of the first Geographic Information System (GIS)-based planning tools empowering an integrated assessment and mapping of 30 indicators reflecting economic, environmental, inter-sectorial and socio-cultural risks and opportunities for proposed aquaculture systems in a marine environment. A bottom-up process consulting more than 350 stakeholders from 10 countries across southern and northern Europe enabled the direct consideration of stakeholder needs when developing the GIS AddIn. The AquaSpace tool is an open source product and builds in the prospective use of open source datasets at a European scale, hence aiming to improve reproducibility and collaboration in aquaculture science and research. Tool outputs comprise detailed reports and graphics allowing key stakeholders such as planners or licensing authorities to evaluate and communicate alternative planning scenarios and to take more informed decisions. With the help of the German North Sea case study we demonstrate here the tool application at multiple spatial scales with different aquaculture systems and under a range of space-related development constraints. The computation of these aquaculture planning scenarios and the assessment of their trade-offs showed that it is entirely possible to identify aquaculture sites, that correspondent to multifarious potential challenges, for instance by a low conflict potential, a low risk of disease spread, a comparable high economic profit and a low impact on touristic attractions. We believe that a transparent visualisation of risks and opportunities of aquaculture planning scenarios helps an effective Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) process, supports the licensing process and simplifies investments.

Urban expansion in Zanzibar City, Tanzania: Analyzing quantity, spatial patterns and effects of alternative planning approaches

Rapid urbanization and urban area expansion of sub-Saharan Africa are megatrends of the 21st century. Addressing environmental and social problems related to these megatrends requires faster and more efficient urban planning that is based on measured information of the expansion patterns. Urban growth prediction models (UGPMs) provide tools for generating such information by predicting future urban expansion patterns and allowing testing of alternative planning scenarios. We created an UGPM for Zanzibar City in Tanzania by measuring urban expansion in 2004–2009 and 2009–2013, linking the expansion to explanatory variables with a generalized additive model, measuring the accuracy of the created model, and projecting urban growth until 2030 with the business-as-usual and various alternative planning scenarios. Based on the results, the urban area of Zanzibar City expanded by 40% from 2004 to 2013. Spatial patterns of expansion were largely driven by the already existing building pattern and land-use constraints. The created model predicted future urban expansion moderately well and had an area under the curve value of 0.855 and a true skill statistic result of 0.568. Based on the business-as-usual scenario, the city will expand 89% from 2013 until 2030 and will continue to sprawl to new regions at the outskirts of the current built-up area. Establishing new urban centers had the highest impact on directing urban expansion from the tested alternative planning scenarios. However, the impact of all scenarios was low and therefore also other planning solutions such as vertical development, urban growth boundaries, and gradual improvement of the informal areas should be considered in Zanzibar.

Cloud-Based Scalable Software for Optimal Long-Range, Network-Level Bridge Improvement Programming

The current state of the practice in bridge management highlights a growing need to develop scalable optimization software tools to support the development of truly optimal bridge improvement programs and ensure that limited financial resources are optimally allocated. The heuristic project selection approaches employed in today’s bridge management systems are not capable of generating optimal programs. Agencies that rely on suboptimal programs may inadvertently direct a significant portion of their budget to the wrong projects, leading to an increase in maintenance backlogs and overall system risk levels. The subjective project selection criteria may also hinder the ability to quantify project benefits or justify projects to funding agencies and stakeholders. This paper presents a novel dynamic programming–based multiobjective optimization approach that is capable of generating global optimal network-level, long-range bridge improvement programs. The algorithm considers three objectives: the minimization of system-level risk, the maximization of system-level condition, and the minimization of life-cycle costs, subject to agency-defined constraints and planning scenarios. The algorithm efficiently explores the enormous search space to find optimal project lists for each year in the planning horizon under any given scenario. Alternative planning scenarios are defined to quantify the impact of different investment levels on system-level performance metrics and to determine the investment required to achieve the desired performance and risk targets.

Participatory governance in smart cities: the urbanAPI case study

This paper presents some results from an EU FP7 RTD project urbanAPI, in which three ICT applications target different aspects of participatory urban governance. The 3D Scenario Creator allows urban planners to visualise urban development proposals in three dimensions, share them with different stakeholders and obtain their feedback. The Mobility Explorer allows urban land use and transport planners to visualise and analyse population distribution and mobility patterns in the city. Finally, the Urban Development Simulator simulates socio-economic activity in response to alternative planning scenarios. These urbanAPI ICT applications are implemented in four pilot cities; Vienna (Austria), Vitoria-Gasteiz (Spain), Bologna (Italy) and Ruse (Bulgaria), and evaluated with respect to their various requirements. Results show that the applications are useful tools, enhancing spatial planning assessements, and enabling public participation, communicating proposed plans to different stakeholders and identifying key development issues which can provide crucial inputs in planning and decision making processes.

Estimating Active Transportation Behaviors to Support Health Impact Assessment in the United States.

Health impact assessment (HIA) has been promoted as a means to encourage transportation and city planners to incorporate health considerations into their decision-making. Ideally, HIAs would include quantitative estimates of the population health effects of alternative planning scenarios, such as scenarios with and without infrastructure to support walking and cycling. However, the lack of baseline estimates of time spent walking or biking for transportation (together known as “active transportation”), which are critically related to health, often prevents planners from developing such quantitative estimates. To address this gap, we use data from the 2009 US National Household Travel Survey to develop a statistical model that estimates baseline time spent walking and biking as a function of the type of transportation used to commute to work along with demographic and built environment variables. We validate the model using survey data from the Raleigh–Durham–Chapel Hill, NC, USA, metropolitan area. We illustrate how the validated model could be used to support transportation-related HIAs by estimating the potential health benefits of built environment modifications that support walking and cycling. Our statistical model estimates that on average, individuals who commute on foot spend an additional 19.8 (95% CI 16.9–23.2) minutes per day walking compared to automobile commuters. Public transit riders walk an additional 5.0 (95% CI 3.5–6.4) minutes per day compared to automobile commuters. Bicycle commuters cycle for an additional 28.0 (95% CI 17.5–38.1) minutes per day compared to automobile commuters. The statistical model was able to predict observed transportation physical activity in the Raleigh–Durham–Chapel Hill region to within 0.5 MET-hours per day (equivalent to about 9 min of daily walking time) for 83% of observations. Across the Raleigh–Durham–Chapel Hill region, an estimated 38 (95% CI 15–59) premature deaths potentially could be avoided if the entire population walked 37.4 min per week for transportation (the amount of transportation walking observed in previous US studies of walkable neighborhoods). The approach developed here is useful both for estimating baseline behaviors in transportation HIAs and for comparing the magnitude of risks associated with physical inactivity to other competing health risks in urban areas.

Agricultural conservation planning framework: 1. Developing multipractice watershed planning scenarios and assessing nutrient reduction potential.

Spatial data on soils, land use, and topography, combined with knowledge of conservation effectiveness, can be used to identify alternatives to reduce nutrient discharge from small (hydrologic unit code [HUC]12) watersheds. Databases comprising soil attributes, agricultural land use, and light detection and ranging-derived elevation models were developed for two glaciated midwestern HUC12 watersheds: Iowa's Beaver Creek watershed has an older dissected landscape, and Lime Creek in Illinois is young and less dissected. Subsurface drainage is common in both watersheds. We identified locations for conservation practices, including in-field practices (grassed waterways), edge-of-field practices (nutrient-removal wetlands, saturated buffers), and drainage-water management, by applying terrain analyses, geographic criteria, and cross-classifications to field- and watershed-scale geographic data. Cover crops were randomly distributed to fields without geographic prioritization. A set of alternative planning scenarios was developed to represent a variety of extents of implementation among these practices. The scenarios were assessed for nutrient reduction potential using a spreadsheet approach to calculate the average nutrient-removal efficiency required among the practices included in each scenario to achieve a 40% NO-N reduction. Results were evaluated in the context of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which reviewed nutrient-removal efficiencies of practices and established the 40% NO-N reduction as Iowa's target for Gulf of Mexico hypoxia mitigation by agriculture. In both test watersheds, planning scenarios that could potentially achieve the targeted NO-N reduction but remove <5% of cropland from production were identified. Cover crops and nutrient removal wetlands were common to these scenarios. This approach provides an interim technology to assist local watershed planning and could provide planning scenarios to evaluate using watershed simulation models. A set of ArcGIS tools is being released to enable transfer of this mapping technology.

Effective Environmental Visualization for Urban Planning and Design: Interdisciplinary Reflections on a Rapidly Evolving Technology

Visioning exercises using computer-based environmental visualization hold significant promise for communicating information and engaging communities in the development and review of planning proposals. The field of visualization research and practice has achieved significant advances in computer technology to the point where it is now possible to represent alternative planning and engineering scenarios with a high degree of photographic realism, data-driven accuracy, and spatial and temporal interactivity. However, the gap in our understanding of what static, video, and agent-based visualization technologies can do and how they should be applied to facilitate rather than frustrate participatory planning has expanded considerably. In the following discussion, the authors discuss the meaning and significance of effective visualization use for urban planning and design. Drawing on developments and principles from related disciplines where visualization tools are developed and applied (e.g., architecture, landscape architecture, resource management, transportation engineering) we present a case for minimum standards in visualization preparation and presentation, the use of “null alternative” scenarios for plan development and review, research to address the “perceptual effectiveness” of video-based formats, and collaborative technology development.

More Art Than Science: The Sources and Effects of Stylistic Variation in Visualization for Planning and Design

Visioning exercises using computer-based environmental visualization hold significant promise for communicating information and engaging communities in the development and review of planning proposals. The field of visualization research and practice has achieved significant advances in computer technology to the point where it is now possible to represent alternative planning and engineering scenarios with a high degree of photographic realism, data-driven accuracy, and spatial and temporal interactivity. Despite the noteworthy benefits and developments in the field of environmental visualization technology comparatively little research has investigated how visualizations are used in urban planning practice. In particular, research is needed that examines how visualization presentation is affected by the social context of planning practice and the independent judgment of the preparer, which may in turn influence plan evaluation and decision making. In this paper I discuss the significance of visualization for urban planning and design and present the results from a study where students and representatives of a citizen-led planning committee evaluated four visualization presentation styles according to perceived realism, credibility and preference for the visualized environmental plans.

A Study on the Thermal Performance of the Living Wall System

PP-29-190 Background/Aims: This study aimed at framing alternative urban planning scenarios reflecting urban planning factors, performing urban climate simulation, and evaluating low energy characteristics from the viewpoint of urban temperature and energy savings. Methods: Monitoring thermometer of artificial ground greening to confirm its mitigation effect of plant evapotranspiration was carried out. Results: According to result of monitoring that, in case of green roof, surface of Grass was lower 2.37°C than surface of concrete and surface of Sedum was lower 3.57°C than surface of concrete in September. In case of green wall, surface of grass was lower 4.78°C than surface of concrete wall, surface of ivy was lower 2.55°C than surface of concrete wall in September. Therefore, it was found that green roof and green wall could have effect on mitigation of microclimate. Conclusion: The best results were recorded from the grass and Sedum surface presenting highest mitigation effect and lowest daily temperature deviation. From this monitoring, it was confirmed that artificial ground green can do its role of temperature mitigation as green does. Environmental Exposure and Health

Aggregate crash prediction models: Introducing crash generation concept

Safety conscious planning is a new proactive approach towards understanding crashes. It requires a planning-level decision-support tool to facilitate proactive approach to assessing safety effects of alternative urban planning scenarios. The objective of this research study is to develop a series of aggregate crash prediction models (ACPM) that are consistent with the trip generation step of the conventional four-step demand models. The concept of crash generation models (CGMs) is introduced utilizing trip generation data in a generalized linear regression with the assumption of a negative binomial error structure. The relationship of crash frequencies in traffic analysis zones (TAZ) and number of trips generated by purpose is investigated. This translates into immediate checking of the impact of future trip generations on crash frequencies in comprehensive transportation-planning studies (i.e. ability to forecast crashes at each time-step trips are being forecasted). A good relation was seen between crash frequency and number of trips produced/attracted by purpose per TAZ.

Embedding sustainable development strategies in agent‐based models for use as a planning tool

Rapid land development in rapidly growing countries has created a series of land‐use problems. The implementation of sustainable land use can alleviate some of these problems. It needs a set of tools for the exploration, design, modification, illustration, and evaluation of alternative planning scenarios. This paper demonstrates that the integration of cellular automata and agent‐based modelling can provide a spatial exploratory tool for generating alternative development patterns. Sustainable development strategies are embedded in the modelling to regulate agents' behaviours. The use of agents can help to represent human–environment interactions in solving complex land‐use problems. It is able to examine the effects of different stakeholders in influencing the process of land development. The proposed model has been applied to the simulation of planning scenarios for residential development in a rapidly expanding city in the Pearl River Delta.

A Land Suitability Index for Strategic Environmental Assessment in metropolitan areas

This paper presents the Land Suitability Index (LSI), a transparent, modular hierarchical system of cartographic indices aimed at delivering Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of developmental land uses for regional planning (European Directive 2001/42/EC). The LSI evaluates land suitability by combining three main sub-indices concerning (i) the vulnerability of the biosphere, lithosphere, and hydrosphere to impacts arising from implementing development proposals; (ii) the natural heritage value of the target area; and (iii) its contribution to terrestrial ecological connectivity. We have used the LSI to evaluate the impact of municipal urban plans in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region (BMR). For this case study, we provide redundancy and sensitivity analyses, and a partial validation using independent studies. Results showed noticeable inconsistencies between the municipal plans and the values of the LSI and its main sub-indices. There was moderate redundancy between sub-indices but considerable sensitivity to changes in input variables. Validation showed a high degree of coincidence with previous, independent, studies as regards connectivity. The quantitative and cartographic approach adopted by the methodology facilitates conveying the results to planners and policy makers. In addition, successive iterations to check the impact related to different alternative planning scenarios can be quickly performed. We therefore propose its application to other metropolitan areas.

The benefits of using a decision engine to optimise campaign planning for direct marketing

This paper is about a new technique for undertaking campaign planning for direct marketing, and the benefits that this can provide, as evidenced by case studies in financial services and utilities. It demonstrates a very considerable commercial uplift in terms of the value generated from direct marketing, but does not require any change in operational technology. Top down spreadsheet-based planning is very sub-optimal because it cannot take account of the opportunity costs of sending customers or prospects a particular communication, even if it manages to make a small profit at the time. By building campaign plans using individual level data, the impacts of alternative planning scenarios can be demonstrated, and the one that best fits business requirements selected. The capabilities required to do this, besides a ‘decision-engine’ to develop scenarios, are samples of customer or prospect data with individual propensities and eligibilities attached.