Alpine Land Research Articles

Spatiotemporal changes and driving factors of alpine land cover in Tianshan world natural heritage sites

Alpine natural heritage sites hold significant value due to their unique global resources. Studying land cover changes in these areas is crucial for maintaining and preserving multiple their values. This study takes Kalajun-Kuerdening, one of the components of Xinjiang Tianshan World Natural Heritage Site, as an example to analyze land cover changes and their driving factors in alpine heritage sites. Highlights include: (1) Between 1994 and 2023, Forest and Grassland increased by 55.96 km2 and 18.16 km2, with notable forest growth from 2007 to 2017. Trends in Forest changes align with forest protection policies, and a substantial amount of Bareland converted to Grassland indicates an increase in vegetation cover. (2) Elevation, precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration are key drivers of land cover changes, as validated by Random Forest algorithm and Geodetector model. (3) Favorable conditions for Grassland to Forest transition include annual precipitation between 275 and 375 mm, annual temperature between −2 and 3 °C, annual evapotranspiration between 580 and 750 mm, elevation between 1800 and 2600 m, and aspect between 0 to 110° and 220 to 259.9°. Continuous monitoring of land cover changes and their driving factors in mountain heritage sites contributes to the protection of the ecological environment and provides data and information support for addressing climate change, resource management, and policy making.

Barn and Badger

Passed down from the previous generation, alpine land in the Swiss Bernese Oberland is owned by three families with different ideas about what taking care of old structures and land looks like. Cattle come up from the valley in the summer. When the ancient barn is leaning and in need of repair, they discover the work of a badger, a powerful digger. Conflict arises. In due time, the barn project turns into a unifying force, lifting family shadows. This is a work of nonfiction.

A novel alpine land cover classification strategy based on a deep convolutional neural network and multi-source remote sensing data in Google Earth Engine

ABSTRACT Alpine land cover (ALC) is facing many challenges with climatic change, biodiversity reduction and other cascading ecosystem damage triggered by natural and anthropogenic interference. Although several global land cover products and thematic maps are already available, their mapping accuracy of alpine and montane regions remains unsatisfactory due to the data acquisition, methodology, and workflow design constraints. Therefore, in this paper, a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) in Google Earth Engine (GEE) was developed to map the ALC types of the Yarlung Zangbo river basin (YZRB) in the Tibetan plateau using multi-source remote sensing data. The DCNN algorithm was offline trained using automatically generating samples and online deployed in the GEE for a large-scale ALC mapping. Moreover, a set of fine land cover classification system (containing 14 ALC types) was also established in accordance with the natural situation of the YZRB. The overall accuracy and kappa were 86.24% and 0.8156, which were higher than traditional classification algorithms. The spatial distribution of ALC types was analyzed in different gradient zones, and a clear altitudinal characteristic was noticed. The terrain of the YZRB from upper-stream to down-stream with an elevation dramatically decreases, and corresponding to vertical zonal changes from glacier and permanent snow/ice, barren gravel land, alpine desert steppe, alpine steppe, alpine meadow, shrubs, to tree cover. The product can provide valuable land cover information to support alpine ecosystem conservation.

Response characteristics of root to moisture change at seedling stage of Kengyilia hirsuta.

Kengyilia hirsuta is an important pioneer plant distributed on the desertified grassland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. It has strong adaptability to alpine desert habitats, so it can be used as a sand-fixing plant on sandy alpine land. To study the response mechanisms of root morphological and physiological characteristics of K. hirsuta to sandy soil moisture, 10%, 25% and 40% moisture levels were set up through potted weighing water control method. The biomass, root-shoot ratio, root architecture parameters, and biochemical parameters malondialdehyde, free proline, soluble protein, indole-3-acetic acid, abscisic acid, cytokinin, gibberellin, relative conductivity and antioxidant enzyme activities were measured in the trefoil stage, and the response mechanisms of roots at different moisture levels were analyzed. The results showed that with the increase of soil moisture, root morphological indexes such as root biomass, total root length, total root volume and total root surface increased, while the root topological index decreased continuously. The malondialdehyde content, relative conductivity, superoxide dismutase activity, peroxidase activity, catalase activity, free proline content, soluble protein content, abscisic acid content and cytokinin content at the 25% and 40% moisture levels were significantly decreased compared with the 10% level (P< 0.05). Thus, the root growth of K. hirsuta was restricted by the 10% moisture level, but supported by the 25% and 40% moisture levels. An artificial neural network revealed that total root length, total root surface area, root link average length, relative conductivity, soluble protein, free proline and moisture level were the key factors affecting root development. These research results could contribute to future agricultural sustainability.

Soil C/N ratio is the dominant control of annual N2O fluxes from organic soils of natural and semi-natural ecosystems

Globally, organic soils of natural and semi-natural ecosystems have been considered as an important source of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O), a powerful greenhouse gas. However, we have little understanding of how and to what extent the magnitude of N2O emissions from such soils is mediated by variation in environmental controls. This knowledge is critical for scaling up the results of measurements from local to regional or global scales. Here we report on two-year field measurements of N2O fluxes from various alpine land use/cover types at 24 sites across an altitudinal gradient in a catchment on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We found that annual N2O emissions varied between 0.05 and 1.39 kg N ha−1 yr−1, with non-growing season contributing 11–60% to these annual budgets. Our field results, together with published data from 43 studies on organic soils globally (natural and semi-natural ecosystems) showed that across all datasets, annual N2O fluxes were more closely related to the soil C/N ratio. Weaker relationships were found to the mean water table depth (WTD) and soil total N content. In contrast to the general assumption that soil N2O emissions may consistently increase with a narrowing of the organic soil C/N ratio, we found strong indications that the relationship of annual N2O fluxes to soil C/N ratio followed an optimum Gaussian curve, with a threshold at a C/N ratio of about 18–19. Moreover, there was a tendency towards high N2O emissions for sites with a mean annual WTD > 0.15 m, indicating a potential risk for increased N2O emissions from global organic soils under water table drawdown driven by climate drying or peatland drainage. Overall, our results suggest that the soil C/N ratio could be used as an indicator to better constrain the contribution of organic soils to N2O emissions from landscape at global scales.

Impact of Snowpack on the Land Surface Phenology in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

The accumulation and ablation processes of seasonal snow significantly affect the land surface phenology in a mountainous ecosystem. However, the ability of snow to regulate the alpine land surface phenology in the arid regions is not well described in the context of climate change. The impact of snowpack changes on land surface phenology and its driving factors were investigated in the Tianshan Mountains using the land surface phenology metrics derived from satellited products and a snow dataset from downscaled regional climate model simulations covering the period from 1983 to 2015. The results demonstrated that the annual mean start of growing season (SOS) and length of growing season (LOS) experienced a significant (p &lt; 0.05) decrease and increase with a rate of −2.45 days/decade and 2.98 days/decade, respectively. The significantly advanced SOS and increased LOS were mainly seen in the Western Tianshan Mountains and Ili Valley regions with elevations from 2500 to 3500 m a.s.l and below 3000 m a.s.l, respectively. During the early spring, the significant decline in snow cover fraction (SCF) could advance the SOS. In contrast, snowmelt amount and annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) have an almost equally substantial positive correlation with annual maximum vegetation greenness. In particular, the SOS of grassland was the most sensitive to variations of snow cover fraction during early spring than that of other vegetation types, and their strong relationship was mainly located at elevations from 1500 to 2500 m a.s.l. Its greenness was significantly controlled by the annual maximum snow water equivalent in all elevation bands. Both decreased SCF and increased temperature in the early spring caused a significant advance of the SOS, consequently prolonging the LOS. Meanwhile, more SWE and snowmelt amount could significantly promote vegetation greenness by regulating the soil moisture. The results can improve the understanding of the snow ecosystem services in the alpine regions under climate change.

On the verge of extinction - revision of a highly endangered Swiss alpine snail with description of a new genus, Raeticella gen. nov. (Gastropoda, Eupulmonata, Hygromiidae).

The phylogenetic status of the alpine land snail Fruticicolabiconica has remained questionable since it was described by Eder in 1917. Considered a microendemic species from mountain tops in Central Switzerland, the shell is specially adapted for life under stones. Herein, we show via molecular and anatomical investigations that F.biconica neither belongs to the land snail genus Trochulus, nor to any other genus within Trochulini, but rather warrants placement within the newly established genus Raeticella Kneubühler, Baggenstos & Neubert, 2022. Phylogenetic analyses reveal that R.biconica is clearly separated from Trochulus. These findings are supported by morphological investigations of the shell and genitalia.

Assessing representation of remote sensing derived forest structure and land cover across a network of protected areas.

Protected areas (PA) are an effective means of conserving biodiversity and protecting suites of valuable ecosystem services. Currently, many nations and international governments use proportional area protected as a critical metric for assessing progress towards biodiversity conservation. However, the areal and other common metrics do not assess the effectiveness of PA networks, nor do they assess how representative PA are of the ecosystems they aim to protect. Topography, stand structure, and land cover are all key drivers of biodiversity within forest environments, and are well‐suited as indicators to assess the representation of PA. Here, we examine the PA network in British Columbia, Canada, through drivers derived from freely‐available data and remote sensing products across the provincial biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification system. We examine biases in the PA network by elevation, forest disturbances, and forest structural attributes, including height, cover, and biomass by comparing a random sample of protected and unprotected pixels. Results indicate that PA are commonly biased towards high‐elevation and alpine land covers, and that forest structural attributes of the park network are often significantly different in protected versus unprotected areas (426 out of 496 forest structural attributes found to be different; p < 0.01). Analysis of forest structural attributes suggests that establishing additional PA could ensure representation of various forest structure regimes across British Columbia's ecosystems. We conclude that these approaches using free and open remote sensing data are highly transferable and can be accomplished using consistent datasets to assess PA representations globally.

The effects of land degradation on plant community assembly: Implications for the restoration of the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractUnderstanding how biotic and abiotic filters drive plant distributions is critical for informing restoration efforts of degraded lands. However, it remains unclear whether or not it is possible to develop efficient restoration strategies that are based on field investigations? Here, we conducted a field‐based investigation along a land degradation gradient on the Tibetan Plateau. Along this gradient, we compared species composition, Pianka's niche overlap, and total aboveground biomass among grasses, sedges, legumes, and forbs. We also used Faith's (1992) phylogenetic diversity index (PD) and the net relatedness index (NRI) to measure community phylogenetic patterns. To understand the effects of abiotic filtering, we measured soil pH, moisture, electrical conductivity, total soil organic carbon, microbial biomass carbon, and microbial biomass nitrogen. Our results show that grasses replaced sedges and mesoxerophytes replaced mesohydrophytes with increasing land degradation. We also found that niche overlap declined with increasing degradation intensity. Furthermore, grass biomass increased, while sedges and legumes decreased, and forb biomass showed a hump‐shaped relationship with degradation intensity. In addition, the communities transitioned from a clustered to a more random phylogenetic pattern. Soil conditions changed from acidic to alkaline and from fertile to harsh (p &lt; .05). High niche overlap indicates a high biotic filtering at lightly degraded land where abiotic filtering is less stressful. However, when degradation is intense, abiotic filtering is apparent, as indicated by low levels of niche overlap. Overall, we suggest that distantly related, arid tolerant and hardy plants, and soil reclamation should be considered in degraded alpine lands restoration.

Vertical differentiation of land cover in the central Himalayas

Characterized by obvious altitudinal variation, habitat complexity, and diversity in land cover, the Mt. Qomolangma region within the central Himalayas is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change in the world. At the same time, because the Mt. Qomolangma region possesses the most complete natural vertical spectrum in the world, it is also an ideal place to study the vertical structure of alpine land cover. In this study, land cover data for 2010 along with digital elevation model data were used to define three methods for dividing the northern and southern slopes in the Mt. Qomolangma region, i.e., the ridgeline method, the sample transect method, and the sector method. The altitudinal distributions of different land cover types were then investigated for both the northern and southern slopes of the Mt. Qomolangma region by using the above three division methods along with ArcGIS and MATLAB tools. The results indicate that the land cover in the study region was characterized by obviously vertical zonation with the south-six and north-four pattern of vertical spectrum that reflected both the natural vertical structure of vegetation and the effects of human activities. From low to high elevation, the main land cover types were forests, grasslands, sparse vegetation, bare land, and glacier/snow cover. The compositions and distributions of land cover types differed significantly between the northern and southern slopes; the southern slope exhibited more complex land cover distributions with wider elevation ranges than the northern slope. The area proportion of each land cover type also varied with elevation. Accordingly, the vertical distribution patterns of different land cover types on the southern and northern slopes could be divided into four categories, with glaciers/snow cover, sparse vegetation, and grasslands conforming to unimodal distributions. The distribution of bare land followed a unimodal pattern on the southern slope but a bimodal pattern on the northern slope. Finally, the use of different slope division methods produced similar vertical belt structures on the southern slope but different ones on the northern slope. Among the three division methods, the sector method was better to reflect the natural distribution pattern of land cover.

Effects of land cover type on community structure and functional traits of alpine stream benthic macroinvertebrates

Abstract In the European Alps, due to the current changes in land use driven by different social and economic factors, grasslands and pastures are being increasingly replaced by forests. Whereas many studies have focused on the impacts of urbanisation and intensive agricultural activities, no study has evaluated the effects of changes among types of natural to semi‐natural land cover in the Alps with a focus on lotic environments. Here, combining taxonomic and functional approaches, we show the effects of four different alpine land cover types (rocks, grasslands, coniferous forests, valley bottom pastures) on stream benthic macroinvertebrate communities. Irrespective of elevation, grasslands and pastures exhibited unpredicted similarity in terms of the composition of the macroinvertebrate assemblages and hosted the highest diversity of benthic organisms, whereas in each of the other land cover types, the density and diversity of the faunal assemblages showed distinct and characteristic values. When analysing the functional diversity decomposed to richness, evenness, and divergence components, grasslands and pastures again showed a similar trend, being characterised by high levels of resource exploitation and niche differentiation, with the potential to host additional organisms. However, as expected, differences driven by land cover type and elevation emerged when examining the single functional traits, since elevation played a major role in terms of the distribution of traits conferring resistance and resilience. Our results demonstrate that land cover type is a prominent factor influencing the taxonomic and functional variety of stream benthic macroinvertebrate communities. Moreover, alpine grasslands contained an unexpected diversity of aquatic insects, as previously assessed for other organisms (e.g. plants and snails). Overall, our study highlights the importance of the preservation of the diversity of habitats in the alpine region, with a special focus needed for valuable semi‐natural landscapes, such as grasslands and pastures, particularly in a time of increasing intensification and abandonment of lands in the alpine context.

Seven decades of mountain hare counts show severe declines where high‐yield recreational game bird hunting is practised

Abstract Recreational hunting is widespread and can benefit nature conservation when well‐practised, monitored, and regulated. Management for recreational red grouse Lagopus lagopus scotica shooting on upland heathland in the UK causes conservation conflict because the intensive habitat, predator, and disease management needed to maintain high‐grouse densities for “driven” shooting has detrimental environmental impacts, notably for raptor populations. Sustainable management of mountain hares Lepus timidus scoticus, a game species in the same landscapes, poses a challenge. Control of transmission to grouse of a viral disease, louping‐ill, for which mountain hares are a host, has become an additional motivation to kill mountain hares since research during 1993–2001 suggested that culls might reduce infection rates in grouse. We analysed population trends of mountain hares from spring counts on moorland managed for grouse shooting and on contiguous alpine land. On moorland sites, a long‐term decline (4.6% per annum) from 1954 to 1999 increased to 30.7% per annum from then until 2017, with a density index falling to &lt;1% of initial levels after 2008. Before 1999, declines were associated with conifer planting and were least severe where heather burning characteristic of grouse management was present. Grouse moors had the highest rate of decline after 1999. On alpine sites, the density index increased by 2.0% per annum from 1954 to 2007, then declined by 12.3% per annum but remained within the previous range of variation. Despite lack of evidence that it increases grouse numbers, reduction of louping‐ill transmission to grouse became a more frequent justification for mountain hare culls at a time consistent with it causing these recent, rapid mountain hare declines on grouse moors. Synthesis and applications. Long‐term field counts suggest that intensification of game bird management has resulted in severe, recent declines in mountain hare numbers, exacerbating longer term declines associated with land‐use change. Management practices founded on misinterpretation of earlier research are the probable cause. Regulation of hare culling would provide a framework for formal tests of whether culls affect grouse surpluses. It would also provide an opportunity to examine mountain hare populations' resilience to culls of varying size and seasonal timing.

Snow cover phenology affects alpine vegetation growth dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau: Satellite observed evidence, impacts of different biomes, and climate drivers

Alpine vegetation plays a crucial role in global carbon cycle. Snow cover is an essential component of alpine land cover and shows high sensitivity to climate change. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has a typical alpine vegetation ecosystem and is rich of snow resources. With global warming, the snow of the TP has undergone significant changes that will inevitably affect the growth of alpine vegetation, but observed evidence of such interaction is limited. In particular, a comprehensive understanding of the responses of alpine vegetation growth to snow cover variability is still not well characterized on TP region. To investigate this, we calculated three indicators, the start (SOS) and length (LOS) of growing season, and the maximum of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVImax) as proxies of vegetation growth dynamics from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for 2000–2015. Snow cover duration (SCD) and melt (SCM) dates were also extracted during the same time frame from the combination of MODIS and the Interactive Multi-sensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) data. We found that the snow cover phenology had a strong control on alpine vegetation growth dynamics. Furthermore, the responses of SOS, LOS and NDVImax to snow cover phenology varied among different biomes, eco-geographical zones, and temperature and precipitation gradients. The alpine steppes showed a much stronger negative correlation between SOS and SCD, and also a more evidently positive relationship between LOS and SCD than other types, indicating a longer SCD would lead to an earlier SOS and longer LOS. Most areas showed positive correlation between SOS and SCM, while a contrary response was also found in the warm but drier areas. Both SCD and SCM showed positive correlations with NDVImax, but the relationship became weaker with the increase of precipitation. Our findings provided strong evidence between vegetation growth and snow cover phenology, and changes in snow cover should be also considered when analyzing alpine vegetation growth dynamics in future.

Relative Influence of Timing and Accumulation of Snow on Alpine Land Surface Phenology

AbstractTiming and accumulation of snow are among the most important phenomena influencing land surface phenology in mountainous ecosystems. However, our knowledge on their influence on alpine land surface phenology is still limited, and much remains unclear as to which snow metrics are most relevant for studying this interaction. In this study, we analyzed five snow and phenology metrics, namely, timing (snow cover duration (SCD) and last snow day), accumulation of snow (mean snow water equivalent, SWEm), and mountain land surface phenology (start of season and length of season) in the Swiss Alps during the period 2003–2014. We examined elevational and regional variations in the relationships between snow and alpine land surface phenology metrics using multiple linear regression and relative weight analyses and subsequently identified the snow metrics that showed strongest associations with variations in alpine land surface phenology of natural vegetation types. We found that the relationships between snow and phenology metrics were pronounced in high‐elevational regions and alpine natural grassland and sparsely vegetated areas. Start of season was influenced primarily by SCD, secondarily by SWEm, while length of season was equally affected by SCD and SWEm across different elevational bands. We conclude that SCD plays the most significant role compared to other snow metrics. Future variations of snow cover and accumulation are likely to influence alpine ecosystems, for instance, their species composition due to changes in the potential growing season. Also, their spatial distribution may change as a response to the new environmental conditions if these prove persistent.

Altitude‐dependent influence of snow cover on alpine land surface phenology

AbstractSnow cover impacts alpine land surface phenology in various ways, but our knowledge about the effect of snow cover on alpine land surface phenology is still limited. We studied this relationship in the European Alps using satellite‐derived metrics of snow cover phenology (SCP), namely, first snow fall, last snow day, and snow cover duration (SCD), in combination with land surface phenology (LSP), namely, start of season (SOS), end of season, and length of season (LOS) for the period of 2003–2014. We tested the dependency of interannual differences (Δ) of SCP and LSP metrics with altitude (up to 3000 m above sea level) for seven natural vegetation types, four main climatic subregions, and four terrain expositions. We found that 25.3% of all pixels showed significant (p &lt; 0.05) correlation between ΔSCD and ΔSOS and 15.3% between ΔSCD and ΔLOS across the entire study area. Correlations between ΔSCD and ΔSOS as well as ΔSCD and ΔLOS are more pronounced in the northern subregions of the Alps, at high altitudes, and on north and west facing terrain—or more generally, in regions with longer SCD. We conclude that snow cover has a greater effect on alpine phenology at higher than at lower altitudes, which may be attributed to the coupled influence of snow cover with underground conditions and air temperature. Alpine ecosystems may therefore be particularly sensitive to future change of snow cover at high altitudes under climate warming scenarios.

Gap analysis as a basis for strategic spatial planning of green infrastructure: a case study in the Ukrainian Carpathians

ABSTRACTIncreased demand for natural resources and economic transition threaten natural and biocultural capital and thus ecosystem services for human well-being. We applied an evidence-based approach to strategic planning of functional green infrastructure in a European biodiversity hotspot: the Ukrainian Carpathian Mountains. We (1) described how potential natural vegetation types have been transformed, (2) applied evidence-based critical thresholds for each potential natural vegetation land cover, (3) measured how much of the potential natural vegetation land covers are protected, and (4) estimated the area of cultural landscapes that emerged. While only 2% of lowland land cover types were left, 55% of mountain forests and 94% of alpine land covers remained. Many mountain forests were transformed to valuable cultural landscapes. Beech and oak forests covered 42% of the study area but at low levels of protection (<5%). The highest protection level (12–17%) was in mixed beech–fir–spruce and in spruce forests. However, taking connectivity into account, only alpine land covers formed a functional habitat network. More areas need to be protected and planned to build a functional green infrastructure. Traditional village systems with biocultural values need support. We discuss how strategic analyses can encourage collaborative spatial planning and international development cooperation.

Backglocken, Backdeckel und Backhauben. Archäologische Angaben zur Ernährungskultur Süd- und Mitteleuropas

Baking bells (or baking lids) were actually very simple ovens that were suitable for baking bread, meat and fish. This method of food preparation was practiced since prehistory in the Mediterranean world and we can find descriptions of baking bells in the Bible and in the works of the writers of antiquity. This individual mode of baking bread became especially widespread during late antiquity. In some regions, the use of baking bells survived either owing to a general stagnation (as in the Balkans or the Alpine lands), or to unusual living conditions (as in the Roman military camps of the Augustan period and in the medieval Ottoman-period border forts in Hungary). Their increasingly frequent use in late antiquity was a reflection of economic decline and the disappearance of urban bakeries. At the same time, the adoption of baking bells by the Barbarian peoples (such as the Avars and the ancient Hungarians) settling on the fringes of the Mediterranean world can be seen as a cultural advance and the adoption of local traditions. Baking bells were still used in the Carpathian Basin as late as the 19th century and they can be found in some areas of the Balkans even today.

Fragile ecosystems and scarce resources meet growing food demand: Is “business as usual” land use an appropriate long-term solution for the Alpine countries?

The Alpine region is exposed to two major challenges in terms of sustainable agriculture: 1) topographical conditions constrain the area, which can be used for agricultural production and 2) the Alps have suffered a dramatic loss of biodiversity in the last few decades. This loss is to great extent caused by a) intensified use of agricultural land in high-yielding areas (e. g. excessive nitrogen depositions) and b) abandonment of agricultural areas with low productivity. In the near future, these challenges are expected to amplify, as the Alpine region will have to contribute to a growing global food demand. In order to find anchor points which help to tackle these challenges a qualitative system analysis was conducted to identify and analyse the variables which influence agricultural land use in Austria, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. Results suggest that our Alpine land use system exerts an enormous pressure on the level of certain variables. If current trends of land use continue to maintain, the level of the variables “ecological quality of agricultural areas” and “attractiveness of landscapes” will most likely decline. Contrarily, the level of “land use intensity on arable land and grassland” will increase further. This shows an imminent need to substantially change land use especially if we seek for long-term food security and conservation of natural resources. Keywords: land use, food production, ecosystem services, Alpine region, qualitative system analysis

COld Ice: A Survey and Monitoring Programme of High-Alpine Cultural Heritage in the Central Alps, Switzerland

Twenty years have passed since the Iceman’s discovery and the archaeological consequences of the rapid melting of the alpine glaciers have become well known. However, hardly any methodological procedures for glacial archaeology have been developed in Central Europe. In 2011, at the Dept. for Prehistory at the University of Zurich a project was founded with the aim to map ice patches with high archaeological potential throughout the Canton of Grisons/Switzerland. These valuable archaeological archives are to be studied before their eminent disappearance in order to answer questions regarding (pre)historic alpine land use, concentrating on communication routes, hunting, pastoral activities, trade and war. To be able to evaluate the ice patches a set of criteria influencing the probability of the presence of finds and the quality of their conservation was compiled. Analysis and visualizations based on aerial photography, landscapes models, glacial and cultural history, historical maps as well as calculations were made using ArcGIS. The resulting predictive model has been tested and continuously adapted during the late summer of 2011 and 2012 through systematic surveying. Such a model will become the basis of a monitoring programme from 2013 onwards.

Accounting for tree line shift, glacier retreat and primary succession in mountain plant distribution models

AbstractAimTo incorporate changes in alpine land cover (tree line shift, glacier retreat and primary succession) into species distribution model (SDM) predictions for a selection of 31 high‐elevation plants.LocationChamonix Valley, French Alps.MethodsWe fit linear mixed effects (LME) models to historical changes in forest and glacier cover and projected these trends forward to align with 21st century IPCC climate scenarios. We used a logistic function to model the probability of plant establishment in glacial forelands zones expected to become ice free between 2008 and 2051–2080. Habitat filtering consisted of intersecting land cover maps with climate‐driven SDMs to refine habitat suitability predictions. SDM outputs for tree, heath and alpine species were compared based on whether habitat filtering during the prediction period was carried out using present‐day (static) land cover, future (dynamic) land cover filters or no land cover filter (unfiltered). Species range change (SRC) was used to measure differences in habitat suitability predictions across methods.ResultsLME predictions for 2021–2080 showed continued glacier retreat, tree line rise and primary succession in glacier forelands. SRC was highest in the unfiltered scenario (−10%), intermediate in the dynamic scenario (−15%) and lowest in the static scenario (−31%). Tree species were the only group predicted to gain overall range by 2051–2080. Although alpine plants lost range in all three land cover scenarios, new habitat made available by glacier retreat in the dynamic land cover scenario buffered alpine plant range loss due to climate change.Main conclusionsWe provide a framework for combining trajectories of land cover change with SDM predictions. Our pilot study shows that incorporating shifts in land cover improves habitat suitability predictions and leads to contrasting outcomes of future mountain plant distribution. Alpine plants in particular may lose less suitable habitat than standard SDMs predict due to 21st century glacier retreat.