Alcohol Demand Research Articles

Prospective associations of behavioral economic demand for cannabis and alcohol with simultaneous cannabis and alcohol use among young adults.

Behavioral economic demand for cannabis and alcohol is robustly associated with cannabis use and alcohol use, respectively. However, few studies have examined the contributions of cannabis and alcohol demand to simultaneous cannabis and alcohol use, which is common among young adults. We examined prospective associations of cannabis demand and alcohol demand with propensity for simultaneous use (broadly defined as using both cannabis and alcohol in the same day) and with cannabis and alcohol consumption during simultaneous use days among young adults. Young adults reporting simultaneous use (N = 107) completed a Marijuana Purchase Task assessing cannabis demand and an Alcohol Purchase Task assessing alcohol demand. They then completed daily smartphone surveys over 21 days assessing cannabis and alcohol use. Multilevel models revealed that higher cannabis demand (i.e., higher Omax, Pmax, and intensity; lower elasticity) was uniquely associated with greater propensity for simultaneous use relative to nonuse. In addition, higher alcohol demand (lower elasticity) was uniquely associated with greater propensity for simultaneous use relative to cannabis-only use, and higher cannabis demand (higher break point and intensity, lower elasticity) was uniquely associated with greater propensity for simultaneous use relative to alcohol-only use. Furthermore, in models limited to simultaneous use days, greater cannabis demand (higher Omax, lower elasticity) and lower alcohol demand (higher elasticity) were uniquely associated with greater overall cannabis flower consumption, and higher alcohol demand (higher Omax, lower elasticity) was uniquely associated with greater overall alcohol consumption. Results suggest that individual differences in cannabis and alcohol demand may contribute to simultaneous cannabis and alcohol use behaviors in a substance-specific pattern. Furthermore, cannabis demand may more strongly drive the tendency to engage in simultaneous use (vs. nonuse) relative to alcohol demand. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

The Role of Alcohol Expectancies in the Association Between Behavioral Economic Alcohol Demand, Relative Reinforcement, and Alcohol Problems.

Alcohol consumption and related problems are common among college students. Prior research links behavioral economic (BE) constructs of alcohol demand and relative reinforcement (RR), and alcohol expectancies, with alcohol consumption/problems. However, research has yet to examine the associations between BE, expectancy theory, and alcohol use outcomes. In this study, college students (n = 287) completed a single online survey assessing demand, RR, alcohol expectancies, and alcohol use/problems. We examined the cross-sectional indirect association of expectancies and drinking on the relationship between demand and alcohol problems and between RR and alcohol problems. The final model showed adequate fit, χ2(26) = 67.23, RMSEA = .07, CFI = .95, SRMR = .06. Higher demand and RR were associated with stronger alcohol expectancies, which demonstrated an indirect association on the relationship between demand, and RR, and alcohol problems. Findings suggest that demand and RR may be directly related to alcohol expectancies; a relationship that has not been previously identified. Moreover, alcohol expectancies may impact the associations among demand, RR, and alcohol problems. Thus, alcohol expectancies may be an important intervention target for reducing alcohol problems. Future longitudinal research is needed to evaluate this association over time and assess if these findings have potential impact for intervention research.

Behavioral economic analysis of the comorbidity of alcohol problems and posttraumatic stress: Findings from high-risk young adults and general community adults.

A behavioral economic reinforcer pathology model theorizes that alcohol problems are influenced by steep delay discounting, overvaluation of alcohol reinforcement, and low reinforcement from alcohol-free activities. Extending this account to the comorbidity of alcohol problems and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), the present study tested the hypothesis that alcohol problems and PTSD symptom severity would interact and be positively associated with indicators from these three domains. High-risk emerging adults from North America (Study 1, n = 1,311, Mage = 22.13) and general community adults from Canada (Study 2, n = 1,506, Mage = 36.80) completed measures of alcohol problems, PTSD symptoms, delay discounting, alcohol demand, and proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement. Across studies, regression analyses revealed significant main effects of alcohol problems and PTSD symptoms in relation to selected reinforcer pathology indicators, but no significant interactions were present for delay discounting or proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement. Interactions were observed for alcohol consumption at $0 (intensity) and the rate of change in consumption across the demand curve (elasticity; Study 1) and for elasticity and maximum alcohol expenditure (Omax; Study 2), but not in the predicted directions. Higher synergistic severity was associated with lower alcohol reinforcing value in each case. These findings reveal expected relations between reinforcer pathology indicators and both alcohol problems and PTSD symptomatology in general but did not support the hypothesized synergistic relationship. The relation between alcohol problems and PTSD is more complex than predicted by existing extensions of the reinforcer pathology model, warranting further investigation. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Adaptation of commodity purchase tasks to identify substitutable substance-free alternative activities for alcohol use.

Behavioral economic frameworks emphasize the importance of contextual influences on alcohol use; therefore, identifying relative demand for alcohol versus other commodities is of importance. Cross-commodity purchase tasks allow participants to make choices across multiple concurrently available commodities and can thereby pinpoint interactions among those commodities. These tasks may help identify relevant substance-free alternative activities to target in alcohol treatment by determining whether the activity functions as a substitute for alcohol use. While substance-free activity promotion is a promising behavioral component of alcohol interventions, no research to-date has used behavioral economic methods to assess the substitutability of alternative activities for alcohol use. The present studies were preliminary assessments of novel single- and cross-commodity purchase tasks of various alternative activities (e.g., exercise, hobbies, civic involvement). Participants in Study 1 recruited from Amazon's Mechanical Turk (n = 110) were administered a series of novel activity purchase tasks and an alcohol purchase task. Results showed excellent fit of the exponential demand equation to activity purchase task data and provided initial support for adaptation of purchase task methodology to alternative activity demand. In Study 2, participants recruited from Amazon's Mechanical Turk (n = 108) were administered both single-commodity and cross-commodity purchase tasks of alcohol and exercise. While most participants demonstrate independent consumption of alcohol and exercise, a subset of participants substituted exercise for alcohol as indicated by quantitative cross-price elasticity indices. These response patterns highlight the importance of individual differences and hold implications for recovery efforts that promote alternative activity engagement and public policy. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

The demand for sparkling wine: insights on a diversified European market

PurposeThe article aims to study the demand for sparkling wines in Europe. The main objective is to estimate the classic demand parameters aggregately for the entire European area (European Union and the United Kingdom) and separately for groups of countries characterized by wine markets with similar characteristics.Design/methodology/approachUsing 15-years market data for different wine categories from the Euromonitor Passport database, the estimation of price and income elasticities is performed through a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. In line with the objectives, the model is applied first to the whole European area and then separately to the considered groups of countries (subareas). To identify homogeneous subareas, a cluster analysis was performed on basic characteristics of the wine market.FindingsWhen considering the European market as a whole, sparkling wines should be considered a luxury category with a high own-price elasticity. However, the structure of their demand is rather different in different sub-areas. The observed heterogeneity suggests that differentiated policy and marketing considerations should be made. In addition, it widens the possibilities for producers, who can choose the submarkets that respond best to their needs to export their sparkling wines. This seems particularly important in markets, like the sparkling wine ones, that are experiencing a continuous expansion over the last decades.Originality/valueDespite using a methodology well-established to study wine and alcohol demand, the study fills a considerable gap in the literature. Although the demand for sparkling wine is growing worldwide, so far only a couple of studies have engaged in the analysis of its structure. In Europe, the largest market for sparkling wine, this kind of studies is completely lacking.

Correspondence between the alcohol-P3 event-related potential and alcohol reward phenotypes among young adults.

Behavioral economic theory suggests that the value of alcohol depends upon elements of the choice context, such that increasing constraints on alternatives (e.g., price) or increasing the benefits of alcohol (e.g., social context) may result in greater likelihood of heavy drinking. The P3 event-related potential elicited by alcohol-related cues, a proposed marker of incentive salience, may be an electrophysiological parallel for behavioral economic alcohol demand. However, these indices have not been connected in prior research, and studies typically do not disaggregate social influences in the context of alcohol cue reactivity. The current study recruited heavy drinking young adults (N = 81) who completed measures of alcohol use and alcohol demand, in addition to a 2 (social/nonsocial) × 2 (alcohol/nonalcohol) visual oddball task to elicit the P3. In multilevel models controlling for demographic characteristics, P3 reactivity was greater to alcohol (p < 0.001) and social (p < 0.001) cues than to nonalcohol and nonsocial cues, but without a significant interaction. Higher alcohol consumption (p = 0.02) and lower elasticity of demand (p = 0.01) were associated with greater P3 response to alcohol than nonalcohol cues. The results highlight a brain-behavior connection that may be an important marker for alcohol reward across units of analysis and may be sensitive to changes in the economic choice contexts that influence the likelihood of alcohol use.

An experimental investigation into the effect of negative affect on the behavioral economic demand for alcohol.

It is hypothesized that alcohol use is reinforcing when used as a strategy to cope with negative affect. Although the evidence for this hypothesis in observational data is weak, some experimental evidence suggests that the behavioral economic demand for alcohol increases immediately following a negative emotional event. We hypothesized that people show a higher demand for alcohol following negative (vs. neutral) mood inductions and that this effect is stronger in people who report heavier drinking compared to people who report lighter drinking as well as stronger on days characterized by higher coping motives and negative urgency. 309 college students who reported recent alcohol consumption (MAUDIT = 6.86) completed the alcohol purchase task after being subjected to 12 mood inductions (six negative, six neutral, order randomized) on 12 separate days. In our preregistered analyses, we found no evidence that the behavioral economic demand for alcohol was elevated following negative mood inductions. The mood inductions in our study were not as strong as has been reported in previous research, weakening the preregistered inferences. In exploratory analyses performed on a subset of the data in which the mood inductions worked as intended, demand was higher following negative mood inductions. The results of this study are not conclusive. In light of previous research, we consider these data to slightly increase our confidence that demand for alcohol is increased immediately following a negative emotional event. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Applying behavioral economics to understand changes in alcohol outcomes during the transition to adulthood: Longitudinal relations and differences by sex and race.

Population drinking trends show clear developmental periodicity, with steep increases in harmful alcohol use from ages 18 to 22 followed by a gradual decline across the 20s, albeit with persistent problematic use in a subgroup of individuals. Cross-sectional studies implicate behavioral economic indicators of alcohol overvaluation (high alcohol demand) and lack of alternative substance-free reinforcers (high proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement) as potential predictors of change during this developmental window, but longitudinal evidence is sparse. Using a sample of emerging adults (N = 497, Mage = 22.61 years, 62% female, 48.69% White, 40.44% Black), this study examined prospective, bidirectional relations between both past-week heavy drinking days (HDD) and alcohol problems and proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement (reinforcement ratio), alcohol demand intensity (consumption at zero price), alcohol demand Omax (maximum expenditure), and change in demand elasticity (rate of change in consumption across escalating price) over five assessments (every 4 months) using random intercept cross-lagged panel models. Alcohol problems and HDD decreased across assessments. Significant between-person effects indicated that each behavioral economic variable was associated with increased drinking risk. Change in reinforcement ratio was positively associated with decreases in alcohol problems. Multigroup invariance modeling revealed distinct risk pathways in that change in demand intensity and Omax predicted change in alcohol problems for male participants and change in intensity predicted change in alcohol problems for non-White participants. The study provides consistent support for proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement and mixed support for demand as within-person predictors of reductions in drinking. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder is associated with more alcohol problems and less substance-free reinforcement: A behavioral economics daily diary study of college student drinkers.

Behavioral economic theory suggests that alcohol risk is related to elevated alcohol reinforcing efficacy (demand) combined with diminished availability of reinforcing substance-free activities, but little research has examined these reward-related processes at the daily level in association with comorbid conditions that might influence behavioral patterns and reward. Young people with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) report high levels of risky drinking, and this risk may be due in part to elevated demand for alcohol and diminished engagement in enjoyable and valued substance-free activities. College student drinkers (N = 101; 48.5% female; 68.3% White; 18-22 years old) with (n = 51) and without (n = 50) ADHD completed 14 consecutive daily diaries (diary entry n = 1,414). We conducted a series of multilevel path models to examine (a) the associations among ADHD and average daily alcohol demand, substance-free enjoyment, and response contingent positive reinforcement (RCPR) for goal-directed behaviors; (b) the associations among concurrent daily alcohol demand, substance-free reinforcement, and RCPR for goal-directed behaviors and daily alcohol use and alcohol-related negative consequences; and (c) the moderating effect of ADHD on these within-day associations. ADHD was significantly associated with more daily alcohol-related negative consequences and less daily substance-free enjoyment and RCPR. Regardless of ADHD status, there were significant associations among behavioral economic risk factors and alcohol use and negative consequences, though effects differed within and between persons. There were no moderating effects of ADHD on within-person associations. Results expose areas of impairment specific to drinkers with ADHD and advance theory on ADHD and hazardous drinking. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Supplemental Material for Prospective Associations of Behavioral Economic Demand for Cannabis and Alcohol With Simultaneous Cannabis and Alcohol Use Among Young Adults

Supplemental Material for Prospective Associations of Behavioral Economic Demand for Cannabis and Alcohol With Simultaneous Cannabis and Alcohol Use Among Young Adults

Review of literature on methods and processes to produce bioethanol from banana peels for disinfection and sanitation of the environment in communities, central region of Mozambique

The demand for alcohol for human health and as an energy resource has attracted the attention of many researchers who have identified accessible and sustainable raw materials for bioethanol production at low cost and with reduced environmental impact. Among the variety of raw material for bioethanol, most come from agricultural and livestock products, in this case banana peel. The feedstock should not disequilibria food safety and should be sourced with adequate efficiency without involving too many complex procedures. Thus, the present research, through a literature review, seeks to discuss efficient methods and procedures to produce bioethanol from banana peels as agricultural waste, for application as a disinfectant of products, in human health and as energy source for households, in the context of rural areas. Many studies point to banana peels as an alternative feedstock for bioethanol production, however communities in Mozambique despite having this resource in abundance, still do not explore systematically in maximum efficiency due to the culture issues and anthropogenic knowledge. The results to maximize the efficiency are among control of production parameters, alkaline pretreatment with Sodium Hydroxide (NaOH), saccharification in a plastic reservoir with less than 10% of Sulfuric Acid (H2SO4) for hydrolysis, enzymatic fermentation using Saccharomyces cerevisiae, distillation at controlled temperatures from 80 up to 120 0C.

Neural correlates of increased alcohol demand following alcohol cue exposure in adult heavy drinkers

Alcohol use disorder is associated with overvaluation of alcohol relative to other rewards, in part due to dynamic increases in value in response to alcohol-related cues. In a neuroeconomic framework, alcohol cues increase behavioral economic demand for alcohol, but the neural correlates these cue effects are unknown. This functional magnetic resonance imaging study combined a neuroeconomic alcohol purchase task with an alcohol cue exposure in 72 heavy drinkers with established sensitivity to alcohol cues (51 % female; mean age=33.74). Participants reported how many drinks they would consume from $0-$80/drink following exposure to neutral and alcohol images in a fixed order. Participants purchased significantly more drinks in the alcohol compared to the neutral condition, which was also evident for demand indices (i.e., intensity, breakpoint, Omax, elasticity; ps<0.001; ds=0.46–0.92). Alcohol purchase decisions were associated with activation in rostral middle and medial frontal gyri, anterior insula, posterior parietal cortex, and dorsal striatum, among other regions. Activation was lower across regions in the alcohol relative to neutral cue condition, potentially due to greater automaticity of choices in the presence of alcohol cues or attenuation of responses due to fixed cue order. These results contribute to growing literature using neuroeconomics to understand alcohol misuse and provide a foundation for future research investigating decision-making effects of environmental alcohol triggers.

Longitudinal examination of alcohol demand and alcohol-related reinforcement as predictors of heavy drinking and adverse alcohol consequences in emerging adults.

Behavioral economic theory predicts that high alcohol demand and high proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement are important determinants of risky alcohol use in emerging adults, but the majority of research to date has been cross-sectional in nature. The present study investigated prospective and dynamic relationships between alcohol demand and proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement in relation to heavy drinking days and alcohol problems. Longitudinal cohort with assessments every 4 months for 20 months. Ontario, Canada. Emerging adults reporting regular heavy episodic drinking (n = 636, Mage = 21.44; 55.8% female). Heavy drinking days (HDD; Daily Drinking Questionnaire), alcohol problems (Brief Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire), alcohol demand (Alcohol Purchase Task) and proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement (Activity Level Questionnaire). Linear mixed effects models revealed that behavioral economic indicators and alcohol-related outcomes significantly decreased over the study, consistent with 'aging out' of risky alcohol use. Random intercept cross-lagged panel models revealed significant between-person relationships, such that higher alcohol demand and alcohol-related reinforcement were positively associated with HDD and alcohol problems (random intercepts = 0.187-0.534, Ps < 0.01). Moreover, alcohol demand indicators (particularly the rate of change in elasticity of the demand curve, as measured by α, and the maximum expenditure, Omax) and proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement significantly forecasted changes in HDD at all time points (|βs| = 0.063-0.103, Ps < 0.05) in cross-lagged relationships, with bidirectional associations noted for the rate of change in elasticity (βs = -0.085 to -0.104, Ps < 0.01). Proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement also significantly forecasted changes in alcohol problems at all time points (βs = 0.072-0.112, Ps < 0.01). Multiple behavioral economic indicators (demand elasticity, maximum expenditure and reinforcement ratio) forecast changes in heavy episodic drinking and alcohol problems over the course of emerging adulthood. These results further implicate alcohol demand and proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement as etiologically and developmentally important mechanisms in alcohol use trajectories.

An experimental investigation into the effect of negative affect on the behavioral economic demand for alcohol.

Influential theoretical models hypothesize that alcohol use is an especially potent reinforcer when used as a strategy to cope with negative affect. Although the evidence for this idea in observational data is weak, some experimental evidence suggests that the behavioral economic demand for alcohol increases immediately following a negative emotional event. Because existing studies testing the effect of negative mood inductions on the demand for alcohol have several methodological limitations and do not take inter- and intraindividual variability into account, we developed an improved experimental design to increase our confidence in any potential within-person effect of negative mood inductions on alcohol demand as well as to test whether this effect exhibits systematic inter- and intraindividual variability. We hypothesize that people will show a higher demand for alcohol following negative compared to neutral mood inductions and that this effect is stronger in heavy compared to light drinkers as well as stronger on days characterized by higher coping motives and negative urgency. Three hundred twenty college students will complete the alcohol purchase task (APT) after being subjected to 100 mood inductions (six negative, six neutral) on 20 separate days. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Alcohol demand in college students: The roles of athletic involvement and gender.

College student-athletes represent a high-risk group for heavy alcohol consumption and negative alcohol-related consequences. Although college drinking correlates with access to low-cost alcohol, no study has examined demand, or the relationship between price and consumption, in student-athletes. Furthermore, the prevalence of anxiety, depression, and drinking to cope motives in student-athletes suggest athlete-specific risks of alcohol consumption that have not yet been examined in conjunction with demand. Therefore, the present study examined gender differences in alcohol demand, alcohol consumption, and anxiety and depressive symptoms in student-athletes (n = 118) and nonathletes (n = 78) at three colleges/universities. Participants completed the Alcohol Purchase Task and measures of alcohol-related behaviors and mental health. Observed demand indices including intensity (i.e., consumption at zero price), Omax (i.e., maximum expenditure), Pmax (i.e., price associated with Omax), and breakpoint-1, or BP₁ (i.e., highest price of nonzero consumption) were calculated at the individual level. The rate of change in demand elasticity (i.e., decrease in consumption relative to price increases) was calculated at the group level. Overall, students reported lower alcohol consumption at higher alcohol prices, but men reported higher alcohol consumption and demand intensity than women, student-athletes reported higher Omax than nonathletes, and student-athletes reported lower depressive symptoms than nonathletes. These findings support reducing access to low-cost alcohol in college drinking environments as a harm-reduction strategy, particularly for high-risk student populations, such as men and those involved in athletics. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Off-premises demand elasticities for pure alcohol in five Latin American countries: The case of Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Uruguay

Background and AimsThere is ample evidence from high-income countries that fiscal policies such as alcohol taxes can affect the consumption of alcohol by increasing alcohol prices. In the case of Latin American countries, much less is known about how sensitive alcohol demand is to alcohol price changes. This study aims to expand the evidence base on the sensitivity of off-premises pure alcohol demand to price and expenditure increases in five Latin American countries: Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Uruguay, which have different socioeconomic profiles and alcohol consumption patterns. Design and settingCross-sectional study MeasurementsThe price and expenditure elasticities were estimated using an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). Own price and expenditure elasticities for off-premises pure alcohol were estimated using representative household surveys, which collect data on households' expenses to construct the consumer basket of goods and services used to calculate the consumer price index (CPI) for the country. FindingsOwn price elasticities of off-premises pure alcohol for all countries were negative, inelastic, and significant at 1 %. They were -0.418 for Argentina; -0.656 for Chile; and for Costa Rica, Honduras, and Uruguay, they were equal to -0.608, -0.509, and -0.32, respectively. Expenditure elasticities were positive and significant at 1 %, except for Costa Rica, which was significant at 10 %. They were equal to 0.865 in Argentina; 0.943 in Chile; 1.182 in Costa Rica; 0.874 in Honduras; and 0.857 in Uruguay. Elasticities for Costa Rica should be interpreted cautiously, as there is insufficient geographical price variability to identify the demand correctly. ConclusionsResults were consistent with previous literature for countries from other regions. Governments should expand this study to measure total demand elasticities to improve the design of alcohol tax policies.

Alcohol cues increase behavioral economic demand and craving for alcohol in nontreatment-seeking and treatment-seeking heavy drinkers.

Behavioral economic research has revealed significant increases in alcohol demand following exposure to alcohol-related cues. Prior research has focused exclusively on nontreatment-seeking heavy drinkers, included only male participants, or used heterogeneous methods. The current studies sought to replicate and extend existing findings in treatment-seeking and nontreatment-seeking heavy drinkers while also examining sex effects and moderation by alcohol use disorder (AUD) severity. Study 1 included 117 nontreatment-seeking heavy drinkers (51.5% women; M age 34.69; 56.4% AUD+), and Study 2 included 89 treatment-seeking heavy drinkers with AUD (40.4% women; M age = 41.35). In both studies, alcohol demand was measured using a hypothetical alcohol purchase task (APT), and subjective alcohol craving was measured using visual analog scales. Measures were collected following exposure to neutral (water) cues in a standard room and alcohol cues in a bar lab. Alcohol demand (intensity, Omax , breakpoint, and elasticity) and craving were significantly increased following alcohol cues compared to neutral cues (ps < 0.005) with effect sizes ranging from small to large (ηp 2 = 0.074-0.480). Participants with AUD (Study 1) or with higher AUD severity (Study 2) reported higher craving and higher demand for most indices (i.e., main effects; ps < 0.032, ηp 2 = 0.043-0.239). A larger alcohol cue increase in Omax was found for AUD+ participants in Study 1 compared to non-AUD participants (p = 0.028, ηp 2 = 0.041) but not for any other indices in Study 1 or Study 2. There were no significant sex effects. These findings replicate and extend prior research by offering additional insight into alcohol cue effects on the reinforcing value of alcohol and subjective motivation to drink. The results also suggest that sex and AUD severity do not meaningfully impact cue effects across most indices of demand.

Taxation of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages: reviewing the evidence and dispelling the myths

The article reviews the large body of evidence on how taxation affects the consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). There is abundant evidence that demand for tobacco, alcohol,...

The meaningfulness of challenging the controlled drinking discourse. An autoethnographic study

Being able to control ones drinking is an expression of attitudes in most western societies towards the act of drinking, and if losing control, one breaks with these attitudes. This is what I call the “controlled drinking discourse.” Loss of control can be understood as any drinking of alcohol which starts a chain of reaction that is felt as a physical and psychological demand for alcohol. This is a description of how I related to alcohol for years until a complete crisis of meaning in my life in 2014. In recovery research, different kinds of “doings” are well documented as meaningful, while meaningful ways of thinking is less explored. Ways of thinking is influenced by available discourses. Through an autoethnographic approach, I explore ways of thinking with use of an analytical framework focusing on the relationship between discourses, narratives, and small stories. I also discuss theories on non-drinking, alcoholism, and recovery. Doing a discursively shift in thinking by accepting that controlled drinking is not possible, is for me a meaningful and self-sustainable way of thinking, which keeps me sober and away from crisis of meaning in my life.

Demand Prediction of Emergency Supplies in Campus Public Health Emergencies Based on GM-GA-BP Neural Network

Medical alcohol is the most widely used and highly demanded emergency supply in both campus public environments and medical settings. It has a sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the event of a public health event. For this reason, forecasting the demand for medical alcohol is crucial for averting and managing unexpected public health issues on campus. An enhanced GM-GA-BP neural network prediction model was put out in this article. The benefits of the equal dimension and new information complement GM(1,1) model's new and old information replacement and small sample data prediction are combined. Following data fitting and modification, a BP neural network based on conjugate gradient algorithm is built to carry out training and prediction. Meanwhile, the connection weight and threshold were globally optimized through genetic algorithm.To forecast the demand for medical alcohol at a certain university in Yibin City from 2022 to 2023, a thorough comparison of a combination model vs the conventional BP neural network model was made. The results showed that the MAPE had been decreased by roughly 3% and the absolute percentage error was as low as 0.12686%. These findings have provided a scientific reference for the university to improve its emergency material reserve strategy represented by medical alcohol.