The modern aircraft Thermal Management System (TMS) faces significant challenges due to increasing thermal loads and limited heat dissipation pathways. To optimize TMS during the conceptual design stage, the development of a modeling and simulation tool is crucial. In this study, a TMS simulation model library was created using MATLAB/SIMULINK. To simplify the complexity of the Vapor Cycle System (VCS) model, a Response Surface Model (RSM) was constructed using the Monte Carlo method and validated through simulation experiments. Taking the F-22 fighter TMS as an example, a thermal dynamic simulation model was constructed to analyze the variation of thermal response parameters in key subsystems and elucidate their coupling relationships. Furthermore, the impact of total fuel flow and ram air flow on the TMS was investigated. The findings demonstrate the existence of an optimal total fuel flow that achieves a balance between maximizing fuel heat sink utilization and minimizing bleed air demand. The adaptive distribution of fuel and ram air flow was found to enhance aircraft thermal management performance. This study contributes to improving modeling efficiency and enhancing the understanding of the thermal dynamic characteristics of TMS, thereby facilitating further optimization in aircraft TMS design.