Airborne Fraction Research Articles

A regression-based approach to the CO2 airborne fraction

The global fraction of anthropogenically emitted carbon dioxide (CO2) that stays in the atmosphere, the CO2 airborne fraction, has been fluctuating around a constant value over the period 1959 to 2022. The consensus estimate of the airborne fraction is around 44%. In this study, we show that the conventional estimator of the airborne fraction, based on a ratio of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and CO2 emissions, suffers from a number of statistical deficiencies. We propose an alternative regression-based estimator of the airborne fraction that does not suffer from these deficiencies. Our empirical analysis leads to an estimate of the airborne fraction over 1959–2022 of 47.0% (± 1.1%; 1σ), implying a higher, and better constrained, estimate than the current consensus. Using climate model output, we show that a regression-based approach provides sensible estimates of the airborne fraction, also in future scenarios where emissions are at or near zero.

The Physics of the Carbon Cycle: About the Origin of CO2 in the Atmosphere

Aims: Examination of the correctness of some assumptions of IPCC regarding climate. Discussion of consequences. Methodology: Explanation of terms used by IPCC and clarification of consequences, identification of prerequisites for the validity/applicability of these terms and scrutiny of their fulfillment under real-world conditions, discussion of consequences. Results: Based on the laws of physics and logic, two central terms used by IPCC, i.e. the fixed "airborne fraction", and the constant "CO2-budget” cannot exist in reality. The first states that about 50 % of the CO2 emitted by humans (the “airborne fraction”) stay in the atmosphere for centuries or longer (the other about 50 % leaving it within maximum a few years), the latter is the maximum value of cumulative net global anthropogenic emissions that is allowed, if global warming should be kept below a given level, for example 2 °C. According to their definition, both values are independent of the temporal distribution of the anthropogenic emissions. But physics speaks against their existence. And also the “Bern Cabon Cycle Model”, used by IPCC as an alternative method to analyze the carbon cycle, cannot be correct, because it is based on incorrect physical boundary conditions. The inadmissibility of the two terms is also supported by observations of the fast decay of 14CO2 after the atomic bomb test stop agreement. Conclusion: If the considerations made here are correct, IPCC's assessment of the sharp increase in CO2 concentration being a consequence of anthropogenic releases implodes. Consequently, the assessment of global warming to be man-made is justified no more, and the necessity to terminate all anthropogenic releases of CO2 for climate protection reasons becomes superfluous. The considerations made here appear to be very reliable, but in view of the far-reaching consequences, a careful review by the scientific community seems to be urgently needed.

Metagenomic airborne resistome from urban hot spots through the One Health lens

AbstractHuman activities are a significant contributor to the spread of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), which pose a serious threat to human health. These ARGs can be transmitted through various pathways, including air, within the context of One Health. This study used metagenomics to monitor the resistomes in urban air from two critical locations: a wastewater treatment plant and a hospital, both indoor and outdoor. The presence of cell‐like structures was confirmed through fluorescence microscopy. The metagenomic analysis revealed a wide variety of ARGs and a high diversity of antibiotic‐resistant bacteria in the airborne particles collected. The wastewater treatment plant showed higher relative abundances with 32 ARG hits per Gb and m3, followed by the main entrance of the hospital (indoor) with ≈5 ARG hits per Gb and m3. The hospital entrance exhibited the highest ARG richness, with a total of 152 different ARGs classified into nine categories of antibiotic resistance. Common commensal and pathogenic bacteria carrying ARGs, such as Moraxella, Staphylococcus and Micrococcus, were detected in the indoor airborne particles of the hospital. Interestingly, no ARGs were shared among all the samples analysed, indicating a highly variable dynamic of airborne resistomes. Furthermore, the study found no ARGs in the airborne viral fractions analysed, suggesting that airborne viruses play a negligible role in the dissemination of ARGs.

Quantification of the Airborne Fraction of Atmospheric CO2 Reveals Stability in Global Carbon Sinks Over the Past Six Decades

AbstractThe airborne fraction of atmospheric CO2 (AF), defined as the annual global CO2 growth rate (dCO2/dt) divided by the total emission of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels and land use change (LUC), has a long‐term average of ∼0.44 over the past six decades. When quantifying trends in AF it is important to account for inter‐annual variability in dCO2/dt due to natural factors such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and major volcanic eruptions, as well as assumptions regarding LUC. Here, a multiple linear regression model is used to compute dCO2/dt as a function of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, ENSO indices, and stratospheric aerosol optical depth (a proxy for major volcanic eruptions), for numerous time series of the emission of CO2 due to LUC (ELUC). For 20 out of 21 previously published ELUC time series, the trend in AF adjusted for natural variability (AFADJ) over 1959 to 2021 exhibits a trend that is statistically indistinguishable from zero and lacks statistical significance at the 95% confidence interval. Therefore, it is most likely that the relative efficacy of the combined global terrestrial biosphere and oceanic carbon sinks has been fairly constant on a global scale over the past six decades. Since the trend in AF exhibits considerable variability depending on which ELUC time series is used, more precise knowledge of the actual value of the AF trend will require resolving the current large differences in various estimates of ELUC.

A generic approach to estimate airborne concentrations of substances released by indoor spray processes using a deterministic 2-box model.

Sprays are used both in workplace and consumer settings. Although spraying has advantages, such as uniform distribution of substances on surfaces in a highly efficient manner, it is often associated with a high inhalation burden. For an adequate risk assessment, this exposure has to be reliably quantified. Exposure models of varying complexity are available, which are applicable to spray applications. However, a need for improvement has been identified. In this contribution, a simple 2-box approach is suggested for the assessment of the time-weighted averaged exposure concentration (TWA) using a minimum of input data. At the moment, the model is restricted to binary spray liquids composed of a non-volatile fraction and volatile solvents. The model output can be refined by introducing correction factors based on the classification and categorization of two key parameters, the droplet size class and the vapor pressure class of the solvent, or by using a data set of experimentally determined airborne release fractions related to the used spray equipment. A comparison of model results with measured data collected at real workplaces showed that this simple model based on readily available input parameters is very useful for screening purposes. The generic 2-box spray model without refinement overestimates the measurements of the considered scenarios in approximately 50% of the cases by more than a factor of 100. The generic 2-box model performs better for room spraying than for surface spraying, as the airborne fraction in the latter case is clearly overestimated. This conservatism of the prediction was significantly reduced when correction factors or experimentally determined airborne release fractions were used in addition to the generic input parameters. The resulting predictions still overestimate the exposure (ratio tool estimate to measured TWA > 10) or they are accurate (ratio 0.5-10). If the available information on boundary conditions (application type, equipment) does not justify the usage of airborne release fraction, room spraying should be used resulting in the highest exposure estimate. The model scope may be extended to (semi)volatile substances. However, acceptance may be compromised by the limited availability of measured data for this group of substances and thus may have limited potency to evaluate the model prediction.

Classification Proposals for Spray Type and Airborne Fraction Ratio of Consumer Chemical Products

Classification Proposals for Spray Type and Airborne Fraction Ratio of Consumer Chemical Products

The secret hidden in dust: Assessing the potential to use biological and chemical properties of the airborne fraction of soil for provenance assignment and forensic casework

The airborne fraction of soil (dust) is both ubiquitous in nature and contains localised biological and chemical signatures, making it a potential medium for forensic intelligence. Metabarcoding of dust can yield biological communities unique to the site of interest, similarly, geochemical analyses can uncover elements and minerals within dust that can be matched to a geographic location. Combining these analyses presents multiple lines of evidence as to the origin of dust collected from items of interest. In this work, we investigated whether bacterial and fungal communities in dust change through time and whether they are comparable to soil samples of the same site. We integrated dust metabarcoding into a framework amenable to forensic casework, (i.e., using calibrated log-likelihood ratios) to predict the origin of dust samples using models constructed from both dust samples and soil samples from the same site. Furthermore, we tested whether both metabarcoding and geochemical/mineralogical analyses could be conducted on a single swabbed sample, for situations where sampling is limited. We found both analyses could generate results from a single swabbed sample and found biological and chemical signatures unique to sites. However, we did find significant variation within sites, where this did not always correlate with time but was a random effect of sampling. This variation within sites was not greater than between sites and so did not influence site discrimination. When modelling bacterial and fungal diversity using calibrated log-likelihood ratios, we found samples were correctly predicted using dust 67% and 56% of the time and using soil 56% and 22% of the time for bacteria and fungi communities respectively. Incorrect predictions were related to within site variability, highlighting limitations to assigning dust provenance using metabarcoding of soil.

Quantifying airborne fraction trends and the destination of anthropogenic CO2 by tracking carbon flows in a simple climate model

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have increased as a direct result of human activity and are at their highest level over the last 2 million years, with profound impacts on the Earth system. However, the magnitude and future dynamics of land and ocean carbon sinks are not well understood; therefore, the amount of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions that remain in the atmosphere (the airborne fraction) is poorly constrained. This work aims to quantify the sources and controls of atmospheric CO2, the fate of anthropogenic CO2 over time, and the likelihood of a trend in the airborne fraction. We use Hector v3.0, a coupled simple climate and carbon cycle model with the novel ability to explicitly track carbon as it flows through the Earth system. We use key model parameters in a Monte Carlo analysis of 15 000 model runs from 1750 to 2300. Results are filtered for physical realism against historical observations and CMIP6 projection data, and we calculate the relative importance of parameters controlling how much anthropogenic carbon ends up in the atmosphere. Modeled airborne fraction was roughly 52%, consistent with observational studies. The overwhelming majority of model runs exhibited a negative trend in the airborne fraction from 1960–2020, implying that current-day land and ocean sinks are proportionally taking up more carbon than the atmosphere. However, the percentage of atmospheric CO2 derived from anthropogenic origins can be much higher because of Earth system feedbacks. We find it peaks at over 90% between 2010–2050. Moreover, when looking at the destination of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions, only a quarter ends up in the atmosphere while more than half of emissions are taken up by the land sink on centennial timescales. This study evaluates the likelihood of airborne fraction trends and provides insights into the dynamics of anthropogenic CO2 in the Earth system.

The utility of dust for forensic intelligence: Exploring collection methods and detection limits for environmental DNA, elemental and mineralogical analyses of dust samples

Environmental DNA (eDNA), elemental and mineralogical analyses of soil have been shown to be specific to their source material, prompting consideration of using the airborne fraction of soil (dust) for forensic intelligence work. Dust is ubiquitous in the environment and is easily transferred to items belonging to a person of interest, making dust analysis an ideal tool in forensic casework. The advent of Massive Parallel Sequencing technologies means metabarcoding of eDNA can uncover bacterial, fungal, and even plant genetic fingerprints in dust particles. Combining this with elemental and mineralogical compositions offers multiple, complementary lines of evidence for tracing the origin of an unknown dust sample. This is particularly pertinent when recovering dust from a person of interest to ascertain where they may have travelled. Prior to proposing dust as a forensic trace material, however, the optimum sampling protocols and detection limits need to be established to place parameters around its utility in this context. We tested several approaches to collecting dust from different materials and determined the lowest quantity of dust that could be analysed for eDNA, elemental composition and mineralogy, whilst still yielding results capable of distinguishing between sites. We found that fungal eDNA profiles could be obtained from multiple sample types and that tape lifts were the optimum collection method for discriminating between sites. We successfully recovered both fungal and bacterial eDNA profiles down to 3 mg of dust (the lowest tested quantity) and recovered elemental and mineralogical compositions for all tested sample quantities. We show that dust can be reliably recovered from different sample types, using different sampling techniques, and that fungi and bacteria, as well as elemental and mineralogical profiles, can be generated from small sample quantities, highlighting the utility of dust for forensic intelligence.

A multivariate dynamic statistical model of the global carbon budget 1959–2020

AbstractWe propose a multivariate dynamic statistical model of the global carbon budget (GCB) as represented in the annual data set made available by the Global Carbon Project, covering the sample period 1959–2020. The model connects four main objects of interest: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the absorption of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere (land sink), and by the ocean and marine biosphere (ocean sink). The model captures the GCB equation, which states that emissions not absorbed by either land or ocean sinks must remain in the atmosphere and constitute a flow to the stock of atmospheric concentrations. Emissions depend on global economic activity as measured by World Gross Domestic Product while sink activities depend on the level of atmospheric concentrations and the Southern Oscillation Index. We derive the time series properties of atmospheric concentrations from the model, showing that they contain one unit root and a near-second unit root. The statistical system allows for the estimation of key parameters of the global carbon cycle and for the assessment of estimation uncertainty. It also allows for the estimation and the uncertainty assessment of related variables such as the airborne fraction and the sink rate. We provide short-term forecasts of the components of the GCB.

Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations

Abstract. The benefits of implementing negative emission technologies in the global warming response to cumulative carbon emissions until the year 2420 are assessed following the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 1-2.6, the sustainable development scenario, with a comprehensive set of intermediate-complexity Earth system model integrations. Model integrations include 86 different model realisations covering a wide range of plausible climate states. The global warming response is assessed in terms of two key climate metrics: the effective transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (eTCRE), measuring the surface warming response to cumulative carbon emissions and associated non-CO2 forcing, and the effective zero emissions commitment (eZEC), measuring the extent of any continued warming after net-zero CO2 emissions are reached. The transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) is estimated as 2.2 K EgC−1 (median value) with a 10 %–90 % range of 1.75 to 3.13 K EgC−1 in 2100, approximated from the eTCRE by removing the contribution of non-CO2 forcing. During the positive emission phase, the eTCRE decreases from 2.71 (2.0 to 3.65) to 2.61 (1.91 to 3.62) K EgC−1 due to a weakening in the dependence of radiative forcing on atmospheric carbon, which is partly opposed by an increasing fraction of the radiative forcing warming the surface as the ocean stratifies. During the net negative and zero emission phases, a progressive reduction in the eTCRE to 2.0 (1.39 to 2.96) K EgC−1 is driven by the reducing airborne fraction as atmospheric CO2 is drawn down mainly by the ocean. The model uncertainty in the slopes of warming versus cumulative CO2 emissions varies from being controlled by the radiative feedback parameter during positive emissions to being affected by carbon-cycle parameters during net negative emissions, consistent with the drivers of uncertainty diagnosed from the coefficient of variation of the contributions in the eTCRE framework. The continued warming after CO2 emissions cease and remain at zero gives a model mean eZEC of −0.03 K after 25 years, which decreases in time to −0.21 K at 90 years after emissions cease. However, there is a spread in the ensemble with a temperature overshoot occurring in 20 % of the ensemble members at 25 years after cessation of emissions. If net negative emissions are included, there is a reduction in atmospheric CO2 and there is a decrease in temperature overshoot so that the eZEC is positive in only 5 % of the ensemble members. Hence, incorporating negative emissions enhances the ability to meet climate targets and avoid risk of continued warming after net zero is reached.

New land-use-change emissions indicate a declining CO2 airborne fraction.

About half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere and half are taken up by the land and ocean1. If the carbon uptake by land and ocean sinks becomes less efficient, for example, owing to warming oceans2 or thawing permafrost3, a larger fraction of anthropogenic emissions will remain in the atmosphere, accelerating climate change. Changes in the efficiency of the carbon sinks can be estimated indirectly by analysing trends in the airborne fraction, that is, the ratio between the atmospheric growth rate and anthropogenic emissions of CO2 (refs. 4-10). However, current studies yield conflicting results about trends in the airborne fraction, with emissions related to land use and land cover change (LULCC) contributing the largest source of uncertainty7,11,12. Here we construct a LULCC emissions dataset using visibility data in key deforestation zones. These visibility observations are a proxy for fire emissions13,14, which are - in turn - related to LULCC15,16. Although indirect, this provides a long-term consistent dataset of LULCC emissions, showing that tropical deforestation emissions increased substantially (0.16 Pg C decade-1) since the start of CO2 concentration measurements in 1958. So far, these emissions were thought to be relatively stable, leading to an increasing airborne fraction4,5. Our results, however, indicate that the CO2 airborne fraction has decreased by 0.014 ± 0.010 decade-1 since 1959. This suggests that the combined land-ocean sink has been able to grow at least as fast as anthropogenic emissions.

Automated identification and quantification of tire wear particles (TWP) in airborne dust: SEM/EDX single particle analysis coupled to a machine learning classifier

The share of non-exhaust particles, including tire wear particles (TWP), within the airborne dust and particularly within PM10 has increased in recent years due to a significant reduction of other particles including exhaust road traffic emissions. However, the quantification of TWP is a demanding task due to the non-specificity of tracers, and the fact that they are commonly contained in analytically challenging low concentrations (e.g. Zn, styrene, 1,3-butadiene, vinylcyclohexene). This difficulty is amplified by the chemical and morpho-textural heterogeneity of TWP resulting from the interaction between the tires and the road surface. In contrast to bulk techniques, automated single particle SEM/EDX analysis can benefit from the ubiquitous heterogeneity of environmental TWP as a diagnostic criterion for their identification and quantification. For this purpose, we follow a machine-learning (ML) approach that makes use of an extensive number (67) of morphological, textural (backscatter-signal based) and chemical descriptors to differentiate environmental particles into the following classes: TWP, metals, minerals and biogenic/organic. We present a ML-based model developed to classify airborne samples (trained by >100,000 environmental particles including 6841 TWP), and its application within a one-year monitoring campaign at two Swiss sites. In this study, the mass concentrations of TWP in the airborne fractions PM80-10, PM10-2.5 and PM2.5-1 were determined. Furthermore, the particle size distribution and shape characteristics of 5621 TWP were evaluated. A cut through a TWP by means of FIB-SEM evidences that the mineral and metal particles typically found in TWP are not only present on the particle surface but also throughout the complete TWP volume. At the urban background site, the annual average mass fraction of TWP and micro-rubber in PM10 was 1.8% (0.28 μg/m3) and 0.9%, respectively. At the urban kerbside site, the corresponding values were 6 times higher amounting to 10.5% (2.24 μg/m3) for TWP, and 5.0% for micro-rubber.

Technical note: On comparing greenhouse gas emission metrics

Abstract. Many metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions can be expressed as an instantaneous global warming potential multiplied by the ratio of airborne fractions calculated in various ways. The forcing equivalent index (FEI) provides a specification for equal radiative forcing at all times at the expense of generally precluding point-by-point equivalence over time. The FEI can be expressed in terms of asymptotic airborne fractions for exponentially growing emissions. This provides a reference against which other metrics can be compared. Four other equivalence metrics are evaluated in terms of how closely they match the timescale dependence of FEI, with methane referenced to carbon dioxide used as an example. The 100-year global warming potential overestimates the long-term role of methane, while metrics based on rates of change overestimate the short-term contribution. A recently proposed metric based on differences between methane emissions 20 years apart provides a good compromise. Analysis of the timescale dependence of metrics expressed as Laplace transforms leads to an alternative metric that gives closer agreement with FEI at the expense of considering methane over longer time periods. The short-term behaviour, which is important when metrics are used for emissions trading, is illustrated with simple examples for the four metrics.

Characterization of airborne particulate fractions from the port city of Rijeka, Croatia

The aim of this work was characterization of airborne particulates in the port city of Rijeka in order to evaluate impact of ship emissions on air quality. Samples of airborne particulates were collected with a ten stages cascade impactor during two campaigns: autumn and spring. A total of 16 weekly samples were analyzed on mass concentration, ions, metals and carbonaceous species (EC, OC, WSOC). Distribution of airborne fractions showed a bimodal distribution, with two maxima: one in coarse, and other in fine fraction. Source apportionment using PMF receptor model identified six sources of airborne particulates in Rijeka: crustal, biomass burning, sea salt, traffic/metal industry, combustion/SIA and HFO burning, i.e., ship emission (contribution 3%). The contribution of ship traffic to primary emission of particulate matter, using vanadium as tracer, indicated a twofold increase for PM10 and PM2.5 relative to 2012–14. An unusual desert dust event was registered in autumn campaign.

Anthropogenic CO2 of High Emission Scenario Compensated After 3500 Years of Ocean Alkalinization With an Annually Constant Dissolution of 5 Pg of Olivine

The CO2 removal model inter-comparison (CDRMIP) has been established to approximate the usefulness of climate mitigation by some well-defined negative emission technologies. I here analyze ocean alkalinization in a high CO2 world (emission scenario SSP5-85-EXT++ and CDR-ocean-alk within CDRMIP) for the next millennia using a revised version of the carbon cycle model BICYCLE, whose long-term feedbacks are calculated for the next 1 million years. The applied model version not only captures atmosphere, ocean, and a constant marine and terrestrial biosphere, but also represents solid Earth processes, such as deep ocean CaCO3 accumulation and dissolution, volcanic CO2 outgassing, and continental weathering. In the applied negative emission experiment, 0.14 Pmol/yr of alkalinity—comparable to the dissolution of 5 Pg of olivine per year—is entering the surface ocean starting in year 2020 for either 50 or 5000 years. I find that the cumulative emissions of 6,740 PgC emitted until year 2350 lead to a peak atmospheric CO2 concentration of nearly 2,400 ppm in year 2326, which is reduced by only 200 ppm by the alkalinization experiment. Atmospheric CO2 is brought down to 400 or 300 ppm after 2730 or 3480 years of alkalinization, respectively. Such low CO2 concentrations are reached without ocean alkalinization only after several hundreds of thousands of years, when the feedbacks from weathering and sediments bring the part of the anthropogenic emissions that stays in the atmosphere (the so-called airborne fraction) below 4%. The efficiency of carbon sequestration by this alkalinization approach peaks at 9.7 PgC per Pmol of alkalinity added during times of maximum anthropogenic CO2 emissions and slowly declines to half this value 2000 years later due to the non-linear marine chemistry response and ocean-sediment processes. In other words, ocean alkalinization sequesters carbon only as long as the added alkalinity stays in the ocean. To understand the basic model behavior, I analytically explain why in the simulation results a linear relationship in the transient climate response (TCR) to cumulative emissions is found for low emissions (similarly as for more complex climate models), which evolves for high emissions to a non-linear relation.

Experimental Characterization Protocols for Wear Products from Disc Brake Materials

The increasing interest in the emission from the disc brake system poses new challenges for the characterization approaches used to investigate the particles emitted from the wearing out of the relevant tribological systems. This interest stems from different factors. In the first place, a thorough characterization of brake wear particles is important for a complete understanding of the active tribological mechanisms, under different testing and servicing conditions. This information is an important prerequisite not only for the general improvement of brake systems, but also to guide the development of new materials for discs and brake pads, responding better to the specific requirements, including not only performance, but also the emission behavior. In this review paper, the main material characterization protocols used for the analyses of the brake wear products, with particular regard for the airborne fraction, are presented. Reliable results require investigating the fine and ultrafine particles as concerns their composition together with their structural and microstructural aspects. For this reason, in general, multi-analytical protocols are very much recommended.

Reemergence of Anthropogenic Carbon Into the Ocean's Mixed Layer Strongly Amplifies Transient Climate Sensitivity

AbstractA positive marine chemistry‐climate feedback was originally proposed by Revelle and Suess (1957, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v9i1.9075), whereby the invasion flux of anthropogenic carbon into the ocean serves to inhibit future marine CO2 uptake through reductions to the buffering capacity of surface seawater. Here we use an ocean circulation‐carbon cycle model to identify an upper limit on the impact of reemergence of anthropogenic carbon into the ocean's mixed layer on the cumulative airborne fraction of CO2 in the atmosphere. We find under an RCP8.5 emissions pathway (with steady circulation) that the cumulative airborne fraction of CO2 has a sevenfold reduction by 2100 when the CO2 buffering capacity of surface seawater is maintained at preindustrial levels. Our results indicate that the effect of reemergence of anthropogenic carbon into the mixed layer on the buffering capacity of CO2 amplifies the transient climate sensitivity of the Earth system.

Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling

The surface warming response to carbon emissions is diagnosed using a suite of Earth system models, 9 CMIP6 and 7 CMIP5, following an annual 1% rise in atmospheric CO2 over 140 years. This surface warming response defines a climate metric, the Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE), which is important in estimating how much carbon may be emitted to avoid dangerous climate. The processes controlling these intermodel differences in the TCRE are revealed by defining the TCRE in terms of a product of three dependences: the surface warming dependence on radiative forcing (including the effects of physical climate feedbacks and planetary heat uptake), the radiative forcing dependence on changes in atmospheric carbon and the airborne fraction. Intermodel differences in the TCRE are mainly controlled by the thermal response involving the surface warming dependence on radiative forcing, which arise through large differences in physical climate feedbacks that are only partly compensated by smaller differences in ocean heat uptake. The other contributions to the TCRE from the radiative forcing and carbon responses are of comparable importance to the contribution from the thermal response on timescales of 50 years and longer for our subset of CMIP5 models and 100 years and longer for our subset of CMIP6 models. Hence, providing tighter constraints on how much carbon may be emitted based on the TCRE requires providing tighter bounds for estimates of the physical climate feedbacks, particularly from clouds, as well as to a lesser extent for the other contributions from the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the terrestrial and ocean cycling of carbon.

Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks

Abstract. This article describes the new Earth system model (ESM), the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System version 2 for Long-term simulations (MIROC-ES2L), using a state-of-the-art climate model as the physical core. This model embeds a terrestrial biogeochemical component with explicit carbon–nitrogen interaction to account for soil nutrient control on plant growth and the land carbon sink. The model's ocean biogeochemical component is largely updated to simulate the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, iron, and oxygen such that oceanic primary productivity can be controlled by multiple nutrient limitations. The ocean nitrogen cycle is coupled with the land component via river discharge processes, and external inputs of iron from pyrogenic and lithogenic sources are considered. Comparison of a historical simulation with observation studies showed that the model could reproduce the transient global climate change and carbon cycle as well as the observed large-scale spatial patterns of the land carbon cycle and upper-ocean biogeochemistry. The model demonstrated historical human perturbation of the nitrogen cycle through land use and agriculture and simulated the resultant impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Sensitivity analyses under preindustrial conditions revealed that the simulated ocean biogeochemistry could be altered regionally (and substantially) by nutrient input from the atmosphere and rivers. Based on an idealized experiment in which CO2 was prescribed to increase at a rate of 1 % yr−1, the transient climate response (TCR) is estimated to be 1.5 K, i.e., approximately 70 % of that from our previous ESM used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The cumulative airborne fraction (AF) is also reduced by 15 % because of the intensified land carbon sink, which results in an airborne fraction close to the multimodel mean of the CMIP5 ESMs. The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is 1.3 K EgC−1, i.e., slightly smaller than the average of the CMIP5 ESMs, which suggests that “optimistic” future climate projections will be made by the model. This model and the simulation results contribute to CMIP6. The MIROC-ES2L could further improve our understanding of climate–biogeochemical interaction mechanisms, projections of future environmental changes, and exploration of our future options regarding sustainable development by evolving the processes of climate, biogeochemistry, and human activities in a holistic and interactive manner.