ABSTRACT Ignition experiments were performed with individual n-decane droplets, initially, about 1 mm in diameter, which were suspended in quartz fibers and subjected to electrical discharges (sparks) of controlled power and duration. Experiments were performed with glow and arc discharges in air at 1 atm and approximately 300 K . Theory is developed to predict the probability of ignition of a fuel droplet as a function of time when it is exposed to an ignition spark. The theory considers the effect of random spark-to-spark fluctuations in the heat flux into the liquid on the time for the droplet surface temperature to be high enough to enable ignition. A Bayesian analysis is also performed to evaluate confidence intervals for parameters related to droplet ignition. Reasonable agreement between theory and experiment is demonstrated, suggesting that spark-to-spark fluctuations of the heat flux into a droplet may lead to a sigmoidal variation of the probability of ignition with respect to time.