Agricultural GDP Research Articles

The Application of Digital-Genomic Tools to Improve Productivity and Profitability in Smallholder Dairy Systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract The dairy sector contributes 30% and 44% of the livestock-related agricultural GDP in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Despite this significant contribution, it is predominantly comprised smallholder farmers with few cows providing vital support in terms of food security, household income and employment for millions of farmers. Research aimed at enhancing productivity and sustainability in these smallholder dairy systems is crucial for rural development, increasing farm incomes, creating employment and supporting women and youth. However, a major challenge is the absence of a routine performance data collection system. Previous efforts to address this limitation often relied on methods from well-established dairy systems in developed countries which frequently failed to adapt effectively. Advances in mobile technology have prompted attempts to investigate alternative cost-effective and practical data recording systems in the smallholder dairy farming with a major focus on information and communications technology (ICT). Successful implementation of digital tools for data collection and synthesis to generate management information as feedback to farmers using ICT-based extension tools has led to increased productivity and household income. Additionally, the use of genomic information allows for genetic evaluation with minimal pedigree information and supports the initiation of breed improvement programs for increased productivity. Information © The Authors 2024

A One Health Approach to Reducing Livestock Disease Prevalence in Developing Countries: Advances, Challenges, and Prospects.

Challenges in livestock production in developing countries are often linked to a high disease prevalence and may be related to poor husbandry, feeding, and nutrition practices, as well as to inadequate access to preventive veterinary care. Structural barriers including chronic poverty, gender roles, inadequate supply chains, and limitations in surveillance infrastructure further complicate progress. Despite many challenges, the livestock sector substantially contributes to agricultural GDP, and reducing livestock disease prevalence is a goal for many countries. One Health initiatives that work across disciplines and sectors to reduce livestock diseases are underway around the world and use integrated approaches that consider the connections between humans, animals, and their shared environments. The growing recognition of the role livestock play in sustainability and livelihoods, as well as their involvement in zoonotic disease transmission and global health security, has highlighted the need for disease reduction strategies as described in this review.

From Tradition to Innovation: The Role of Culture Tourism in Transforming Chinese Agriculture

After the merger of China’s Ministry of Culture and the National Tourism Administration into the Ministry of Culture and Tourism in 2018, there was a strong push to advance the strategy of culture–tourism integration, which has shown significant effects on the economy and society. Building on this success, the Chinese government proposed the strategy of agriculture–culture–tourism integration in 2023. However, its impact on the agricultural sector remains unclear. This study employs field theory to explain the impact of culture–tourism integration on the agricultural sector. Drawing from the relevant literature, we construct and statistically analyze the Culture–Tourism Coupling Coordination Degree (CTCCD). Utilizing provincial panel data from China from 2000 to 2022, we employ two-way fixed-effects panel regression to empirically estimate and analyze the effects of the CTCCD on the agricultural GDP, Total Factor Productivity (TFP), and various aspects of crop farming. Our findings reveal several key insights: (i) the CTCCD exhibits a significant negative impact on both agricultural GDP and TFP; (ii) the CTCCD negatively affects the proportion of crop farming within the agricultural sector, suggesting that culture–tourism integration results in weaker development of crop farming compared to forestry, animal husbandry, and fisheries; (iii) the CTCCD demonstrates significant negative effects on the sown area, yield per unit area, and total production of food crops, while positively influencing the per capita income of agricultural workers. These empirical results highlight the complex relationship between culture–tourism integration and agricultural development. Our analysis provides quantitative evidence of the trade-offs involved in pursuing integrated development strategies, adding to the existing research on rural development. The findings indicate that promoting agriculture–culture–tourism integration should be balanced with efforts to accelerate agricultural technological progress.

Comparative Study on Forecast Performance from Decomposition, Winter’s and Sarima Models

This study investigates the forecasting accuracy of three univariate time series models—Decomposition, Winter’s method, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) to predict the Agricultural GDP of Nigeria. Quarterly data on Nigeria's Agricultural GDP from 2010 to the first quarter of 2023, obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics, were analyzed. The study applied Box-Jenkins SARIMA modeling, time series decomposition, and Winter’s method to compare their forecasting accuracy using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the selection criterion. The results revealed that the SARIMA (0, 0, 2)(2, 1, 0) model outperformed the other methods, with the lowest RMSE, indicating its superior accuracy in forecasting Agricultural GDP. Winter’s method and the Decomposition method. The forecast from the SARIMA model indicated a positive trend in Nigeria’s Agricultural GDP over the study period, reinforcing the sector’s critical role in economic growth.

Estimating the Impact of Sectoral Output on Employment for Nigeria Economy (1981-2021)

The purpose of this research is to determine the employment effects of contributions to GDP by the main sectors in the context of Nigeria and to understand the relative importance of each sector. This study investigates the contributions of the three broad sectors of the economy to total employment over the period 1981 to 2021 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique. Sectoral output was proxied by agricultural GDP, industry GDP and services GDP respectively while employment was measured by total number of employed persons. The Bounds test signaled the existence of cointegrating relationships between the series at both aggregated and disaggregated levels, necessitating both short and long run analysis for the study. The best performing sector in terms of employment intensity is the agricultural sector suggesting its labour-intensive nature. The impact of growth in industrial sector on employment appears to be a case of jobless growth while the impact of increases in service sector GDP on employment appears to be more like the case of job-loss growth. The agricultural sector supports growth-led employment for Nigeria while the service sector negates it. The service and industry sectors have low labour absorption capacity as the former is technology-driven while the latter is capital-intensive. The government should as a matter of urgency improve on its provision of finance and other support services to the agricultural sector. It is also necessary to devise verifiable methods to attract the teeming young population to actively participate in the agricultural sector with a view to developing its value chain. A growing service sector and a shrinking agricultural sector can only at best perpetuate the already challenging unemployment situation in Nigeria. The government should conduct an audit of the country’s agricultural sector for an in-depth understanding of the needs and then prioritise these needs in public expenditure allocations while ensuring that targeted funds get to those who are active farmers.

Revitalization of the Nepalese Agriculture Sector for Economic Prosperity: Gap Analysis between Agricultural GDP and Investment Trends

This study explores the paradox of the decreasing contribution of agriculture to GDP despite rising investments in the sector, conducting a gap analysis between agricultural GDP and investment trends. The anticipated outcome of increased agricultural investment is enhanced productivity and a corresponding rise in GDP share. However, this study identifies a significant mismatch between investment trends and agricultural output, revealing discrepancies that require attention. By analyzing relevant data, the research highlights the troubling trend of diminishing agricultural GDP contribution alongside increasing imports, emphasizing the urgent need for sectoral revitalization to foster economic prosperity. The paper argues that the current economic environment presents substantial challenges to agricultural revitalization and stresses the necessity of improved coordination and cooperation among stakeholders.

The Mechanization Trend and Economic Prospects of Micro Irrigation in India

Agriculture plays a crucial role in the Indian economy, contributing nearly 16 percent to the total GDP, with farm mechanization serving as the backbone of agricultural GDP. This study analyzes the growth trend in agricultural mechanization in India by examining the shift from traditional human and animal-powered equipment to mechanically powered farm equipment like tractors and power tillers, which are vital for farm mechanization. Secondary data from 2004-2005 to 2021-2022 were used, and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and correlation analyses were performed to assess trends. The study found a 6.78 percent annual growth in tractor purchases, with a linear trend equation showing a 0.93 coefficient of determination (R²) at a 1 percent significance level, and a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.76, indicating a strong correlation between tractor and power tiller purchasing trends. Precision farming, a type of farm management that uses information technology to optimize crop and soil health and productivity while minimizing production costs, is increasingly adopted due to advancements in mechanization. In India, precision farming techniques like drip and sprinkler micro-irrigation, covering 13,476,804 hectares with 46.90 percent under drip and 53.09 percent under sprinkler, have proven beneficial, especially in water-scarce areas. Precision farming is practiced mainly by medium to large progressive farmers, often experimentally or commercially, and offers profitable returns when applied to high-value crops such as fruits, vegetables, flowers, and medicinal plants.

The Relationship between Agricultural Production, Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Türkiye: Cointegration and Causality Analysis

This study aimed to assess the influence of agricultural production and agricultural product exports on economic growth within the Turkish economy. To achieve this, annual data spanning from 1980 to 2022 were utilized to construct a model, employing the ARDL Bounds Test to discern the long-term cointegration relationship among variables and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test to determine causality relationships. The empirical findings from the ARDL Bounds Test indicate that increases in both agricultural production and agricultural product exports positively impact economic growth. Moreover, results from the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test unveil a two-way causal relationship between agricultural production and GDP, while a one-way causality relationship is observed between agricultural product exports and GDP. Despite the declining share of the agricultural sector in GDP over the years in Turkey, these findings underscore the enduring importance of agriculture in driving economic growth and creating value. As potential solutions to Turkey's balance of payments challenges, strategies such as boosting domestic demand, expanding the domestic market, and augmenting agricultural sector contributions to foreign exchange earnings through agricultural export subsidies are proposed. Furthermore, efforts to mitigate income disparities between the agricultural sector and other sectors could foster socio-economic development in rural areas, thus promoting a more equitable distribution of national income across society.

An analysis of the contribution of the informal milk market to nutrition in Kenya

BackgroundThe dairy sector in Kenya is an important part of the agricultural GDP of the country. Its legal framework was reformed in 2004 to address the economic importance that the informal sector (i.e. trading on raw milk) had for smallholders’ producers. However, this reform was accused of being a pro-poor policy instead of focusing on the development of the formal dairy sector. In recent years, there has been pressure to go back to the pre-2004 regulatory system and to illegalize the raw milk trade. An aspect that has been absent from the discussion is the contribution that the informal market has to households’ nutrition. The contribution of this paper is to address this shortcoming using the most recent Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey for 2015–16.ResultsThe results indicate that the rural annual milk consumption (70.2 L) surpasses that of urban areas (68.8 L). These values are different to those found in the literature. County consumption varies depending on the availability of milk, which appears associated to the production capacity and the climate of the region. However, regardless of the region unpacked milk is the most consumed dairy item representing 72 per cent of the total countrywide; 84 per cent of the rural total and 55 per cent of the urban area.ConclusionsThe results indicate that the sector provides significant nutrition especially to poor economic groups. Therefore, attempting to ban the informal sector would have negative consequences for Kenya's food security, impacting mostly on the nutritional security of low-income households. In addition, the nutritional aspects that the informal dairy sector provides need to be considered alongside the economic ones in future debates regarding regulatory reforms of the sector.

Structural Transformation in the Indonesian Economy: Why does 'Financial Development' Matter?

This study offers a comprehensive examination of Indonesia's process of changing its economic structure from 2000 to 2020. Structural transformation, characterized by changes in the distribution of jobs among different sectors, is crucial for fostering economic growth. It emphasizes phenomena such as the decrease in agricultural GDP shares, rural-urban migration and shifts in economic sectors, which resemble the patterns observed in emerging countries. Nevertheless, the rate of employment transformation is comparatively slower than the fluctuations in GDP, suggesting a more gradual and protracted process of structural change. The analysis focuses on obstacles to transformation, such as insufficient personnel and digital infrastructure. The study examines the relationships between structural transformation and economic indicators in the provinces of Indonesia from 2011 to 2022, utilizing panel data regression models. The findings indicate strong correlations between economic development, human capital, financial development, digital technology, and structural transformation. The study highlights the significance of tackling these elements to accelerate transformation. The policy implications of this proposal suggest that Indonesia should prioritize economic and digital growth, improve human capital, and strengthen the financial sector. This will lead to a more rapid and comprehensive structural transformation in the country.

Analysis of the Relationship Between Fiscal Policy and Economic Security in Iraq

This research analyzes some indicators of fiscal policy, specifically focusing on public expenditure, government revenue, and the general budget balance. It also examines certain indicators of economic security, including the average GDP per capita, agricultural GDP, and non-oil GDP, in an attempt to measure the extent of influence and the role that these policies could play in achieving economic security during the years 2004 to 2021, particularly after the establishment of the political system in Iraq.Through study, analysis, and the use of quantitative methods in processing, the research reveals a disparity between the trajectories and orientations of fiscal policy and the achievement of economic security in Iraq. Fiscal policy has often been centered on the reliance on a single quarterly resource, namely oil revenues, resulting in the economy's persistent dependency and vulnerability to fluctuations in the global economy. This situation has had negative or positive implications for the living standards of Iraqi citizens

Analisis Pengaruh Produksi dan Luas Lahan Kelapa Sawit terhadap PDRB Sektor Pertanian: Pendekatan Regresi Linier Berganda menggunakan Data Sekunder 2013-2022

The issue in this research is that the increase and decrease of agricultural GDP per capita in Southeast Sulawesi are significantly influenced by several factors, one of which is the production factor and the availability of land for oil palm cultivation. Therefore, an analysis is needed regarding the impact of GDP on the production and land area of oil palm in Southeast Sulawesi. This study aims to understand the impact of oil palm production and cultivated area on the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the agricultural sector in Southeast Sulawesi Province. The sample for this study uses secondary data derived from the Southeast Sulawesi Provincial Statistics Agency and the Indonesian Palm Oil Statistics Book from 2013 to 2022. This research is analyzed using multiple linear regression methods with IBM SPSS Statistics 25 software. The results of this study indicate that oil palm production in the Southeast Sulawesi region has a negative and significant effect on the agricultural GRDP of Southeast Sulawesi, while the expansion of oil palm plantation area has a positive and significant effect on the agricultural sector GRDP in Southeast Sulawesi Province.

Integrated Disease Management for the Sustainable Production of Colombian Coffee

Coffee stands as a vital pillar of Colombia’s economic prosperity, constituting approximately 7% of the nation’s agricultural GDP. Moreover, it serves as a significant contributor to national agricultural employment, with direct jobs stemming from coffee cultivation comprising 26% of the total agricultural workforce. This underscores the pivotal role coffee plays in shaping Colombia’s social and economic landscape, solidifying its position as the primary origin of mildly washed coffees for global consumers. However, Colombia’s coffee production grapples with the challenge of operating amidst persistently rainy conditions, fostering an environment conducive to fungal diseases. This, compounded by environmental, economic, commercial, and safety constraints for disease control, creates a multifaceted scenario that continuously tests disease management strategies. Addressing this complex dynamic demands a crop protection framework that seamlessly integrates efficient and sustainable methodologies. Such methodologies should prioritize outbreak prevention, cost-effectiveness, adherence to national and international regulations, and the preservation of environmental and human health. Integrated disease management emerges as a solution capable of optimizing productivity tailored to the unique conditions of each plot. By mitigating the impact of pathogens while responsibly utilizing and conserving natural resources, this approach safeguards the well-being of both producers and consumers alike.

Análisis de los principales indicadores socioeconómicos del sector agropecuario ecuatoriano (2000-2022)

The agricultural sector in Ecuador, a key player in the country’s economic system, is currently facing important challenges that threaten the sustainability of production. Consequently, the objective of this research was to analyze the main socioeconomic indicators of the Equatorian agricultural sector during the 2000-2022 period. Using a descriptive methodology with quantitative and analytical-synthetic methods, information was sourced from BCE and INEC. Results show that agricultural activities contribute 7.92% to Ecuador’s GDP, generate 35% of foreign exchange earnings, and yield 94.84% of the food consumed by the population. However, agricultural production is concentrated on a few primary goods. In addition, the agricultural frontier has been reduced in recent years, there is evidence of a process of disinvestment by the State in the agricultural sector, and the agricultural GDP growth rate shows a downward trend. Therefore, current administrations in Ecuador have not attempted to change to a model that would honor the efforts of the rural population.

The environmental tale of two countries: Determinants of CO2 emissions in South Africa and Australia

This study examines the long-run and short-run impact of GDP, urbanization, exports, agri- cultural activity, air travel, and electricity production on CO2 emissions in South Africa and Australia. Results from the ARDL model show that South Africa's heavy reliance on coal for electricity generation significantly impacts CO2 emissions. Furthermore, South Africa's urban population is associated with a concomitant increase in CO2 emission in the long-run. On the other hand, our results show that agricultural land and air transportation have a negative cor- relation with CO2 emissions in South Africa. These results are markedly different from Aus- tralia's long-run estimates, where agricultural land is identified as the significant contributor to CO2 emissions. Additionally, urbanization in Australia is negatively related to CO2 emis- sions. The findings underscore a significant long-term policy challenge for Australia, as fac- tors such as electricity production, agricultural land usage, air travel, GDP, and exports in- crease CO2 emissions. In the case of South Africa, the policy challenge lies in developing policies that will help the country transition from coal-generated electricity to renewable en- ergy and promote efficient urban planning policies.

Determinants of Tax Revenue in Ethiopia: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Tax revenue is the main source of revenue for governments in advanced and emerging economies, which fund government spending. The main goal of this research is to look at the factors affecting tax revenue in Ethiopia from 1996 to 2020 using time series data. The impact of agricultural-to-GDP, service-to-GDP, inflation, corruption, political stability, and tax reformation on the ratio of tax revenue to GDP was investigated in this study. The short-run and long-run associations between the variables were determined using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration approach. The study's outcomes reveal that inflation has a positive relationship with tax; however, agricultural GDP negatively impacted tax revenue in the short run over the study period. Political stability, service-to-GDP, and inflation, on the other hand, has a positive long-run impact on tax revenue, while corruption has a negative impact. We recommend that policymakers and governments combat corruption, maintain political stability, broaden tax bases to include more service-oriented businesses, and reduce reliance on agricultural sectors. Keywords: Inflation; Corruption; Political stability; Tax reformation; Tax revenue

Have Agricultural Land-Use Carbon Emissions in China Peaked? An Analysis Based on Decoupling Theory and Spatial EKC Model

Assessing the emission-peaking process of agricultural land use provides valuable insights for mitigating global warming. This study calculated agricultural land-use carbon emissions (ALUCEs) in China from 2000 to 2020 and explored the peaking process based on quantitative criteria. Further, we applied the Tapio decoupling index and environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model to discuss the robustness of the peaking process. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, China’s average ALUCEs were 368.1 Mt C-eq (1349.7 CO2-eq), peaking at 396.9 Mt C-eq (1455.3 Mt CO2-eq) in 2015 before plateauing. Emissions from agricultural materials and soil management had entered the declining period, while those from rice cultivation were in the peaking period, those from straw burning were still rising, and those from livestock breeding remained at the plateauing phase. (2) The provinces of Beijing, Tianjin, and nine others saw a decline in ALUCEs, while Hainan, Guizhou, and another nine provinces observed plateauing, and Ningxia, Qinghai, and six other provinces experienced peaking. (3) Decoupling analysis confirmed that emission-peaking states remained stable even with agricultural growth. Instead of an inverted U-shaped relationship, we found an N-shaped relationship between ALUCEs and agricultural GDP. The spatial EKC model indicated that the peaking process had spillover effects between provinces. It is recommended that China accelerate ALUCE mitigation based on the source and phase of emissions, considering the peaking process and magnitude.

Potential climate-induced impacts on trade: the case of agricultural commodities and maritime chokepoints

This study assesses the potential macro-economic effects of climate change affecting operations in three maritime chokepoints, i.e., the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Turkish Straits. The analysis focuses on agricultural commodities. It couples a “logistics” model of maritime trade flows with a Computable General Equilibrium model considering three modelling alternatives: (1) increase of “iceberg trade costs”, (2) shadow import tariffs, and (3) shadow export tariffs. Methodologically, we found a comforting qualitative agreement across methodologies in predicting the direction of changes in the main economic variables under scrutiny. However, negative GDP performances are more frequent and larger using the first method that also tends to predict lower import contractions than the other two methods. The impact assessment, examining storylines of climate-change-induced events delaying chokepoints operations, highlights that climate change impacts on chokepoints’ operations can convey detectable effects on production and prices of agricultural commodities associated with negative GDP impacts worldwide. In addition, although trade re-composition generates winners and losers, total losses tend to prevail. The combined GDP losses of the three chokepoints can reach $34 billion (2014 prices) in 2030. It shows that weather events in remote locations, such as the Panama Canal, can have cascading effects on the EU, with potential losses of USD 2 billion $ in GDP. North Africa, Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable. They suffer from a drop in imports of agricultural commodities and GDP losses in all the three cases. This impact assessment emphasizes another mechanism at play that could increase the asymmetry and the adverse distributional impacts of climate change on agriculture.

Decoupling Agricultural Grey Water Footprint from Economic Growth in the Yellow River Basin

Decoupling agricultural economic growth from agricultural water pollution is of great importance to regional sustainable development. It is necessary to further explore the decoupling state and key driving factors connecting agricultural water pollution and agricultural economic growth on the basis of accurate measurement of agricultural water pollution. Accordingly, taking the Yellow River Basin (YRB) as the research object, this study combined the water footprint theory, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model and the Tapio decoupling model (TDM) to conduct an in-depth decoupling analysis of the connection between the agricultural grey water footprint (AGWF) and agricultural economic growth in the YRB. Specifically, this study first calculated the AGWF of the YRB during 2016–2021 and objectively evaluated the water resource utilization in this region based on the AGWF. Then, the LMDI model was used to explore the driving factors of the AGWF in the YRB. Finally, the decoupling states between the AGWF and its driving factors with agricultural GDP (AGDP) were studied using the TDM. The main results are as follows: (1) The overall AGWF in the YRB showed a decreasing trend and a slow increase, decreasing by 5.39% in 2021 compared to 2016. (2) The primary promoting factor and inhibiting factor of AGWF reduction are the efficiency effect and agricultural economic effect, respectively. (3) The decoupling states of the AGWF and AGDP presented strong decoupling (SD) and then weak decoupling (WD) in the YRB during the research period. The decoupling states between the agricultural grey water footprint intensity (AGWFI) and AGDP changed from expansive negative decoupling (END) to SD. The decoupling state of population and AGDP remained SD. This study will contribute to alleviating agricultural water pollution in the YRB and help policymakers in water-stressed countries to formulate agricultural water management policies.

The relationship between external debt and agriculture GDP growth in Ghana: an ARDL cointegrating bound testing approach

The relationship between external debt and agriculture GDP growth in Ghana: an ARDL cointegrating bound testing approach