Agriculture, Forestry And Other Land Use Emissions Research Articles

Investigating the Nexus Between GHG Emissions and AFOLU Activities: New Insights from C-Vine Copula Approach

AbstractThe greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) account for more than 10% of the total GHG emissions in Iran. To reduce the environmental impact, assessments of Iran’s GHG emissions status are critical for identifying the national policies to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the bio-based industry. However, there is no study exploring the dependency between AFOLU and GHG emissions in Iran by using the Vine Copula approach. Hence, the study aims to examine the causality direction and correlation structure among selected horticulture, farming crops, livestock, and poultry products and carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen dioxide (N2O), and methane emissions (CH4) in the Iranian agriculture sector over the period 1961–2019, to determine which crops or products are more responsible to deteriorate the environment. The empirical strategy used a C-Vine Copula model to measure the correlations together with the Granger causality (GC) test to analyze the causality links. According to the empirical findings, several crops and products are the sources of emissions. Rice and vegetable cultivations, as well as meat and milk products (Kendall’s τ values of 0.37, 0.33, 0.31, and 0.31, respectively), are the leading sources of CH4 emissions. Legumes, eggs, maize, rice, and milk enhance N2O emissions, while CO2 emissions are caused by apple, potato, and apricot crops (Kendall’s τ values of 0.22, 0.18, and 0.16, respectively). Finally, based on the findings, policy implications are offered.

Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement

Transformation pathways for the land sector in line with the Paris Agreement depend on the assumption of globally implemented greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pricing, and in some cases also on inclusive socio-economic development and sustainable land-use practices. In such pathways, the majority of GHG emission reductions in the land system is expected to come from low- and middle-income countries, which currently account for a large share of emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). However, in low- and middle-income countries the economic, financial and institutional barriers for such transformative changes are high. Here, we show that if sustainable development in the land sector remained highly unequal and limited to high-income countries only, global AFOLU emissions would remain substantial throughout the 21st century. Our model-based projections highlight that overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. While also a scenario purely based on either global GHG emission pricing or on inclusive socio-economic development would achieve the stringent emissions reductions required, only the latter ensures major co-benefits for other Sustainable Development Goals, especially in low- and middle-income regions.

GHG mitigation in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector in Thailand

BackgroundThe Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for almost a quarter of the global Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The emissions associated with AFOLU activities are projected to increase in the future. The agriculture sector in Thailand accounted for 21.9% of the country’s net GHG emissions in 2013. This study aims to estimate the GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector and mitigation potential at various carbon prices during 2015–2050. This study uses an AFOLU bottom-up (AFOLUB) model to estimate GHG emissions in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, and then identifies no-regret options, i.e. countermeasures that are cost-effective without any additional costs. In addition, the study also identifies countermeasure options and mitigation potential at various carbon prices.ResultsResults show that emissions from the agriculture sector in the BAU will increase from 45.3 MtCO2eq in 2015 to 63.6 MtCO2eq in 2050, whereas net emission from the AFOLU will be 8.3 MtCO2eq in 2015 and 24.6 MtCO2eq in 2050. No-regret options would reduce emissions by 6.1 and 6.8 MtCO2eq in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The carbon price above $10 per tCO2eq will not be effective to achieve significant additional mitigation/sequestration.ConclusionsIn 2050, no-regret options could reduce total AFOLU emissions by 27.5%. Increasing carbon price above $10/tCO2eq does not increase the mitigation potential significantly. Net sequestration (i.e., higher carbon sequestration than GHG emissions) in AFOLU sector would be possible with the carbon price. In 2050, net sequestration would be 1.2 MtCO2eq at carbon price of $5 per tCO2eq, 21.4 at $10 per tCO2eq and 26.8MtCO2eq at $500 per tCO2eq.

Carbon stock loss of Chir pine forest through tree felling in Lower Himalaya.

The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector accounts a quarter (10- 12 GtCO2eq/yr) of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions. AFOLU emissions could change substantially in transformation pathways, with significant mitigation potential from agriculture and forestry mitigation measures [1]. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) as per A2 emissions scenario reports that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be between 450-600 ppmv by 2050, and 700-1000 ppmv by 2100. The increased atmospheric CO2 would correspondingly increase global mean surface temperature between 1.5-5.5oC [2-4]. The high atmospheric concentration of CO2 resulted into increase in temperature will have severe consequences on human and natural systems [5] and would be very cost intensive and challenging to counter the climate change impacts to communities [6]. The challenge of reduction of high atmospheric CO2 concentration can be resolved by reducing the volume of emissions; and capturing and storing CO2 from atmosphere.

Towards the development of a GHG emissions baseline for the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, South Africa

South Africa is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and as such is required to report on Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Energy, Transport, Waste and the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors every two years in national inventories. The AFOLU sector is unique in that it comprises both sources and sinks for GHGs. Emissions from the AFOLU sector are estimated to contribute a quarter of the total global greenhouse gas emissions. GHG emissions sources from agriculture include enteric fermentation; manure management; manure deposits on pastures, and soil fertilization. Emissions sources from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) include anthropogenic land use activities such as: management of croplands, forests and grasslands and changes in land use cover (the conversion of one land use to another). South Africa has improved the quantification of AFOLU emissions and the understanding of the dynamic relationship between sinks and sources over the past decade through projects such as the 2010 GHG Inventory, the Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA), and the National Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Assessment (NTCSA). These projects highlight key mitigation opportunities in South Africa and discuss their potentials. The problem remains that South Africa does not have an emissions baseline for the AFOLU sector against which the mitigation potentials can be measured. The AFOLU sector as a result is often excluded from future emission projections, giving an incomplete picture of South Africa’s mitigation potential. The purpose of this project was to develop a robust GHG emissions baseline for the AFOLU sector which will enable South Africa to project emissions into the future and demonstrate its contribution towards the global goal of reducing emissions.

Multi-gas and multi-source comparisons of six land use emission datasets and AFOLU estimates in the Fifth Assessment Report, for the tropics for 2000–2005

Abstract. The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector contributes with ca. 20–25 % of global anthropogenic emissions (2010), making it a key component of any climate change mitigation strategy. AFOLU estimates, however, remain highly uncertain, jeopardizing the mitigation effectiveness of this sector. Comparisons of global AFOLU emissions have shown divergences of up to 25 %, urging for improved understanding of the reasons behind these differences. Here we compare a variety of AFOLU emission datasets and estimates given in the Fifth Assessment Report for the tropics (2000–2005) to identify plausible explanations for the differences in (i) aggregated gross AFOLU emissions, and (ii) disaggregated emissions by sources and gases (CO2, CH4, N2O). We also aim to (iii) identify countries with low agreement among AFOLU datasets to navigate research efforts. The datasets are FAOSTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Statistics Division), EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), the newly developed AFOLU “Hotspots”, “Houghton”, “Baccini”, and EPA (US Environmental Protection Agency) datasets. Aggregated gross emissions were similar for all databases for the AFOLU sector: 8.2 (5.5–12.2), 8.4, and 8.0 Pg CO2 eq. yr−1 (for Hotspots, FAOSTAT, and EDGAR respectively), forests reached 6.0 (3.8–10), 5.9, 5.9, and 5.4 Pg CO2 eq. yr−1 (Hotspots, FAOSTAT, EDGAR, and Houghton), and agricultural sectors were with 1.9 (1.5–2.5), 2.5, 2.1, and 2.0 Pg CO2 eq. yr−1 (Hotspots, FAOSTAT, EDGAR, and EPA). However, this agreement was lost when disaggregating the emissions by sources, continents, and gases, particularly for the forest sector, with fire leading the differences. Agricultural emissions were more homogeneous, especially from livestock, while those from croplands were the most diverse. CO2 showed the largest differences among the datasets. Cropland soils and enteric fermentation led to the smaller N2O and CH4 differences. Disagreements are explained by differences in conceptual frameworks (carbon-only vs. multi-gas assessments, definitions, land use vs. land cover, etc.), in methods (tiers, scales, compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines, legacies, etc.) and in assumptions (carbon neutrality of certain emissions, instantaneous emissions release, etc.) which call for more complete and transparent documentation for all the available datasets. An enhanced dialogue between the carbon (CO2) and the AFOLU (multi-gas) communities is needed to reduce discrepancies of land use estimates.

Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America

Nearly 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Latin America were from agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) in 2008, more than double the global fraction of AFOLU emissions. In this article, we investigate the future trajectory of AFOLU GHG emissions in Latin America, with and without efforts to mitigate, using a multi-model comparison approach. We find significant uncertainty in future emissions with and without climate policy. This uncertainty is due to differences in a variety of assumptions including (1) the role of bioenergy, (2) where and how bioenergy is produced, (3) the availability of afforestation options in climate mitigation policy, and (4) N2O and CH4 emission intensity. With climate policy, these differences in assumptions can lead to significant variance in mitigation potential, with three models indicating reductions in AFOLU GHG emissions and one model indicating modest increases in AFOLU GHG emissions.

Forest carbon accounting methods and the consequences of forest bioenergy for national greenhouse gas emissions inventories

While bioenergy plays a key role in strategies for increasing renewable energy deployment, studies assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from forest bioenergy systems have identified a potential trade-off of the system with forest carbon stocks. Of particular importance to national GHG inventories is how trade-offs between forest carbon stocks and bioenergy production are accounted for within the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector under current and future international climate change mitigation agreements. Through a case study of electricity produced using wood pellets from harvested forest stands in Ontario, Canada, this study assesses the implications of forest carbon accounting approaches on net emissions attributable to pellets produced for domestic use or export. Particular emphasis is placed on the Forest Management Reference Level (FMRL) method, as it will be employed by most Annex I nations in the next Kyoto Protocol Commitment Period. While bioenergy production is found to reduce forest carbon sequestration, under the FMRL approach this trade-off may not be accounted for and thus not incur an accountable AFOLU-related emission, provided that total forest harvest remains at or below that defined under the FMRL baseline. In contrast, accounting for forest carbon trade-offs associated with harvest for bioenergy results in an increase in net GHG emissions (AFOLU and life cycle emissions) lasting 37 or 90 years (if displacing coal or natural gas combined cycle generation, respectively). AFOLU emissions calculated using the Gross-Net approach are dominated by legacy effects of past management and natural disturbance, indicating near-term net forest carbon increase but longer-term reduction in forest carbon stocks. Export of wood pellets to EU markets does not greatly affect the total life cycle GHG emissions of wood pellets. However, pellet exporting countries risk creating a considerable GHG emissions burden, as they are responsible for AFOLU and bioenergy production emissions but do not receive credit for pellets displacing fossil fuel-related GHG emissions. Countries producing bioenergy from forest biomass, whether for domestic use or for export, should carefully consider potential implications of alternate forest carbon accounting methods to ensure that potential bioenergy pathways can contribute to GHG emissions reduction targets.

The FAOSTAT database of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, including crop and livestock production, forestry and associated land use changes, are responsible for a significant fraction of anthropogenic emissions, up to 30% according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while emissions from fossil fuels are updated yearly and by multiple sources—including national-level statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA)—no comparable efforts for reporting global statistics for agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) emissions exist: the latest complete assessment was the 2007 IPCC report, based on 2005 emission data. This gap is critical for several reasons. First, potentially large climate funding could be linked in coming decades to more precise estimates of emissions and mitigation potentials. For many developing countries, and especially the least developed ones, this requires improved assessments of AFOLU emissions. Second, growth in global emissions from fossil fuels has outpaced that from AFOLU during every decade of the period 1961–2010, so the relative contribution of the latter to total climate forcing has diminished over time, with a need for regular updates. We present results from a new GHG database developed at FAO, providing a complete and coherent time series of emission statistics over a reference period 1961–2010, at country level, based on FAOSTAT activity data and IPCC Tier 1 methodology. We discuss results at global and regional level, focusing on trends in the agriculture sector and net deforestation. Our results complement those available from the IPCC, extending trend analysis to a longer historical period and, critically, beyond 2005 to more recent years. In particular, from 2000 to 2010, we find that agricultural emissions increased by 1.1% annually, reaching 4.6 Gt CO2 yr−1 in 2010 (up to 5.4–5.8 Gt CO2 yr−1 with emissions from biomass burning and organic soils included). Over the same decade 2000–2010, the ratio of agriculture to fossil fuel emissions has decreased, from 17.2% to 13.7%, and the decrease is even greater for the ratio of net deforestation to fossil fuel emissions: from 19.1% to 10.1%. In fact, in the year 2000, emissions from agriculture have been consistently larger—about 1.2 Gt CO2 yr−1 in 2010—than those from net deforestation.