Agricultural Production Capacity Research Articles

The Digital Economy and Agricultural Modernization in China: Measurement, Mechanisms, and Implications

Promoting the progression of agricultural modernization and digital economy integration has introduced new opportunities and challenges for the advancement of China’s agriculture towards high-quality development. Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, we use the entropy method, coupling coordination model, spatial auto-correlation model, and obstacle model to explore the degree of coupling coordination and influencing factors of China’s digital economy and agricultural modernization. The results show the following. (1) China’s digital economy and agricultural modernization are underdeveloped on the whole, but they show a positive upward trajectory. The digital economy is outpacing the development of agricultural modernization, but the gap between the two is gradually narrowing. (2) The degree of coupling coordination between China’s digital economy and agricultural modernization shows an upward trend. Additionally, there is regional heterogeneity and uneven development of the coupling coordination, i.e., it is high in the eastern region and low in the western region, accompanied by strong spatial agglomeration and correlation. (3) The main obstacle to the progression of the digital economy is digital infrastructure, while the main obstacle to the progression of agricultural modernization is agricultural production capacity. Based on China’s national conditions, we should fully promote the role of the digital economy, explore plans and strategies for promoting the digital economy in differentiated areas, mitigate any imbalanced development, promote the coordinated development of the digital economy and agricultural modernization, and provide decision-making references for the implementation of a digitized China, as well as rural revitalization strategies.

Investigating how Road Development Enhances Agricultural Production in Bubandi Sub County of Bundibugyo District, Uganda

This study investigated the intertwine between road development and agricultural production in Bubandi Sub County of Bundibugyo District, Uganda. Findings revealed that the poor road network in the district is caused by steep slopes, difficulties in compensating project affected residents, government delays in providing cash, and weather variations. This poor road network equally threatens food security. This is because road development increases the agricultural productive capacity of poor households, lowers input and transportation costs, creates a market for agricultural produce, improved regional interaction, opens up new economic areas, and facilitates the flow of goods, especially agricultural produce, from rural to urban areas. Based on this finding, the study calls for the Uganda National Roads Authority (UNRA) to build all-weather loose surface roads to connect economically beneficial areas and provinces. The government should directly incentivize and oversee farmers to grow the sub county's agriculture. This is because most farmers lack agricultural incentives to inspire and boost their output. The government should build standardised highways and extend rural electrification, to encourage post-harvest handling technologies. Finally, the government should increase infrastructure and agricultural extension budgets in rural areas. Keywords: Agricultural output, Agricultural production, Feeder roads, Road development, Standard of living.

Benefits and trade-offs of replacing inorganic fertilizer by organic substrate in crop production: A global meta-analysis

Replacing inorganic fertilizer with organic substrate contributes to sustainable agricultural production capacity. However, the effects of organic substitution regimes (OSR) on global crop productivity, soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) losses and biofertility as function of environmental variables have not been systematically quantified. Here, we have conducted a meta-analysis of these effects using field data (211 papers with 852 observations) collected around the world. Results indicated that OSR increased crop productivity (3.04 %) and soil biofertility (soil qMBC, qMBN, microbial richness, Shannon and functionality by 11.4 %, 21.1 %, 10.2 %, 3.95 %, and 38.5 %, respectively), and reduced soil N losses (N2O emissions, NH3 volatilization and soil N leaching by 26.5 %, 26.1 %, and 33.8 %, respectively), but increased CO2 emissions (19.4 %), and paddy fields CH4 emissions (41.2 %). N rate was an important factor influencing crop productivity and soil biofertility response to OSR, and crop productivity and soil biofertility had a greater positive response at moderate substitution rates in acid soil and long-term trials, but full substitution significantly decreased crop yield. Furthermore, the increase in soil biofertility and crop yield saturated in ~10–14 and ~ 22 years after organic substrate input. The emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O significantly increased with increasing substitution rates, while the opposite was true for N leaching. The NH3 volatilization response to OSR presented a positive effect in acidic and coarse texture soil. OSR was more beneficial in mitigating soil C and N loss response (except CO2 emissions) in uplands compared to paddy fields. Therefore, implementation of OSR requires site-specific strategies to better achieve a balance between increasing crop production and reducing environmental benefits. Given that the OSR improvement varies depending on environmental variables, we propose a predictive model to initially assess the potential for OSR improvement. This study will provide scientific guidance on the reasonable application of organic substrate in agroecosystems.

Plot Size and Shape in Field Crops Cultivation in Türkiye

The size and shape of the agricultural parcel are important factors in improving the agricultural structure. These factors positively affect farmers, especially in matters such as the use of agricultural tools and machines in field crop cultivation, time saving and good soil cultivation. In this context, the size and aspect ratio of the existing parcels are directly linked to the income to be obtained from the unit area. Land consolidation projects are ongoing in approximately 30% of the total agricultural area in Türkiye. In addition, the state's efforts to give agricultural land to landless farmers continue in Türkiye. Considering our current agricultural production capacity, planning the new parcels to be created during these studies will significantly contribute to our field crop production. For this purpose, the average parcel size was determined by analysing the land distribution norm values of 4321 settlement units within the scope of the Agricultural Reform Law No. 3083 on Land Arrangement in Irrigation Areas, published in 1984, and the size of 1868 sufficient income lands within the scope of the Soil Conservation and Land Use Law No. 5403, published in 2014. As a result of this study, it was concluded that, on average, an agricultural parcel of 64 decares in irrigated lands and 157 decares in dry agricultural lands is the most suitable size for growing field crops. Likewise, it was concluded that the parcels were rectangular in shape and the aspect ratio was close to 1:2.

Impediments to efficient land reallocation in agriculture: Multi‐agent simulation model of transaction costs and farm retirement

AbstractThis study examines the effect of land exchanges among farm households (FHs) on agricultural sustainability and viability using a multi‐agent simulation model. The initial values of the model are fixed so that the simulation results might reproduce the sequence of land use pattern in Japanese agriculture. The novelty of this study is three‐fold. First, it quantitatively assesses the extent to which transaction costs incurred by lessors and lessees impede the sound development of land rental markets. Second, the simulation model considers inter‐regional heterogeneity in land use patterns and the interactive behavior of FHs regarding land exchanges. Third, the model elucidates the mechanisms by which the equilibrium land rent reaches zero and farmland is abandoned when some FHs retire from farming. Farmland abandonment has become a global phenomenon that has profoundly altered the traditional agricultural landscape in various countries. The present study suggests that the development of land rental markets associated with farm retirement alone does not strengthen agricultural production capacity at the national level. Particularly, if FH retirement progresses to the point where the equilibrium land rent drops to zero, farmland abandonment occurs, which threatens agricultural sustainability and viability. This study concludes that preventing farmland abandonment is a policy issue of the highest priority to ensure global food security and the sustainable development of agriculture.

Evolving Soil Water Limitation Changes Maize Production Potential and Biomass Accumulation but Not Its Relationship with Grain Yield

As a key indicator of agricultural production capacity, crop production potential is critical to evaluate the impacts of climate variability on agriculture. However, less attention has been paid to the pattern of biomass accumulation in response to crop climatic production potential and its relation to grain yield formation at an intra-seasonal time scale, especially under evolving soil water limitation. In this study, we combined a mechanism-based empirical model with field experiments conducted at different growth stages of maize on the Northern China Plain (NCP) to assess the dynamic response of biomass accumulation to climatic production potential and its relation to grain yield. The results showed that the ability of climatic production potential to estimate biomass was significantly improved when a vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was incorporated, with the root mean square error (RMSE) reduced by 33.3~41.7% and 45.6~47.2% under rainfed and evolving soil water limitation conditions, respectively. Drought significantly decreased biomass accumulation mainly by decreasing the intrinsic growth rate and delaying the occurrence timing of maximum growth. Moreover, grain yield shared a nonlinear and saturating relationship with biomass across rainfed and water deficit conditions. The results imply that evolving soil water limitation changes the process of biomass accumulation but not its relationship with grain yield. These findings provide useful information to estimate crop production potential under abiotic stresses and improve the accuracy of crop yield prediction.

Do adaptive policy adjustments deliver ecosystem-agriculture-economy co-benefits in land degradation neutrality efforts? Evidence from southeast coast of China.

Ecosystem restoration projects (ERPs) facilitate land degradation neutrality (LDN). However, the response dynamics and interactions of sectors within ecosystem-agriculture-economy nexus (EAEN) have not been sufficiently explored, which constrains the coordinated efficacy of LDN efforts. To bridge the knowledge gaps, the present study selected a land restoration hotspot in southeastern China as a case to investigate the simultaneous responses of the EAEN sectors to ERPs from a novel social-ecological system (SES)-based LDN perspective. Various biophysical models and Manne-Kendall trend test as well as multi-source spatially explicit data and socioeconomic statistics were applied to quantify the co-evolution of natural and socioeconomic indicators. ERPs converting cropland to woodland and grassland promoted vegetation restoration, reduced soil erosion, and enhanced carbon sequestration. However, cropland loss initially resulted in a decline in grain productivity. Policy adjustments and improvements in ecosystem restoration efforts and agricultural production conditions improved food security and increased agricultural production capacity. Effective policymaking and favorable resident engagement accelerated the transformation from a grain-production-based agriculture to diversified industries and, by extension, economic output, income, and population. The success of socioeconomic development under the SES framework for LDN demonstrated that this strategy could achieve the desired environmental, agricultural, and economic targets. EAEN under the SES conceptual framework provides an inclusive, comprehensive LDN perspective and improves ERP efficacy. The findings of the present work might be applicable to other land restoration areas challenged by the complex interactions among multidimensional factors. Comparably successful implementation of these ERPs could be realized if individual environmental and socioeconomic conditions are thoroughly considered during the formulation of coordinated development policies.

Competitiveness of the Cities: Branding and Positioning

Purpose: The primary aim of the research is to examine the branding and positioning of cities within the framework of competitiveness. In this regard, Silifke which is a district in Turkey has been analyzed in terms of competitiveness with its branding and positioning tendency. Theoretical framework: It is well-known fact that cities are in a competition with each other to attract entrepreneurs, tourists and citizens in today's globalized world. It is considered that the competitiveness of a city is largely determined by its branding and positioning features. Design/methodology/approach: The mixed research approach was preferred in the research process and data were obtained through a questionnaire using the Drugan’s (2014) Brand City Scale. In order to ensure the highest level of measurement quality, that encompasses reliability of the research, the simple random sampling method was preferred. The analysis process was carried out with the data from 476 participants. Findings: When the discourse analyses including qualitative data have been taken into account, it was found that the city differs with its sea, historical background, agricultural features, river and tourism opportunities. These features occur as competitors however; quantitative data analyses’ results identify that the city has only been regarded as a branding city with its agricultural production capacity. Research, Practical & Social implications: It is suggested that the future researches highlight the contributions by carrying out the comparative studies between the cities. Originality/value: The original aspect of the research is that there hasn’t been any research dealing with the city itself in terms of branding and positioning.

A critical evaluation of soil salinization, waterlogging, and agricultural productive capacity in Hohokam irrigation of the Phoenix Basin, Arizona, USA.

A causal link between environmental degradation and societal collapse has captivated the imagination of generations of archaeologists, historians, and the public. At its core, it is believed that the agricultural aspirations of societies outstrip what the environment can offer. The Hohokam, who farmed the Phoenix Basin of Arizona, USA, for nearly a millennium (AD 475-1450), have been repeatedly used as an exemplar of incongruence between the environment and agricultural practices leading to crop failures and ultimately societal collapse. Contributing to the collapse narrative is crop failures that spread across the lower Salt River Valley during the late 1800s. Unacknowledged by collapse narratives is that unproductive fields were brought back to life at the start of the twentieth century with techniques not beyond the capability of the Hohokam. Hohokam farmers and their descendants maintained and prospered in the valley for more than a millennium, so the assumed unidirectionality toward degraded productive capacity warrants examination. In this article, five lines of evidence are used to assess the relationships among soil salinization, waterlogging, and agricultural productive capacity. The multistep approach reveals that available evidence fails to substantiate soil salinization and waterlogging as primary catalysts in the decline of Hohokam irrigation. As such, establishing causality between environmental factors and societal decline in the past requires multiple lines of evidence producing contextually detailed syntheses, rather than simple models.

Evaluating farm household resilience and perceptions of the role of small-scale irrigation in improving adaptability to climate change stress: evidence from eastern Ethiopia

This study surveys farmers in the Kersa district, East Hararghe zone, Oromia regional state, Ethiopia, to assess their adaptability and their perceptions of the role of small-scale irrigation in improving resilience to climate change. Data were collected from a sample of 288 randomly selected households (130 adopters and 158 non-adopters of small-scale irrigation). A household survey was used to gather quantitative data, and qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Data were analyzed using principal component analysis to generate the resilience capacity index of the households. Analysis revealed that adopters were better off on all indicators of resilience, including access to food and income, assets, agricultural production, stability, and adaptive capacity. The findings also suggest that households with high resilience are more resilient to climate change. These results suggest that small-scale irrigation increases responsiveness to irregular weather patterns, significantly contributing to increasing farmers' resilience by minimizing the impacts of climate change. Therefore, policymakers should pay due attention to mitigating the impacts of climate change and improving the adaptive capacity of small-scale farmers.

Preface

THE 2ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SUSTAINABILITY (THE 2ND ICAFOSY): GENDER AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENTAgricultural development is a kind of resource management effort that uses environmentally friendly approaches to ensure long-term agricultural production capacity and improve farmers’ welfare. Natural resource differences indicate diversity in their management in order to meet the sustainability of providing products for humans and development. A lack of clarity in defining the type or characteristics of the resource, as well as an error in managing it, will result in resource damage, if not destruction.In the current era of globalization, inequity in human access to natural resources and agricultural land is also a source of concern. There are significant gender inequalities in the implementation of access to land resource management in terms of rewarding women for the roles they play in resource conservation, utilization, and preservation, as well as the sustainability of the results. Women have a strong bond with nature. They have more interaction with the environment and natural resources as household managers. Pollution directly affects women and children.The existence of global events globally affected human life in meeting their daily needs on natural resources, and this is why the Laboratory of Rural Sociology and Community Empowerment, Department of Socio-Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Brawijaya held an International Conference titled “The 2nd International Conference on Agriculture and Food Sustainability (The 2nd ICAFOSY): Gender and Sustainable Agriculture Development.”The conference was held in a hybrid format on the 17th and 18th of October 2022 at the Grand Mercure Malang hotel because conditions and situations were not completely normal after the pandemic. Besides, it provides an ideal forum for discussing the state of natural resource management, particularly in the agricultural sector, during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as an overview of the critical role of women and men in managing Natural Resources, particularly in the agricultural sector.ChairpersonDr. Asihing Kustanti, S. Hut, M. Si.List of Committees are available in this pdf.

A study of intention to recycle pesticide packaging among rural farmers in China based on the logistic model

A consequence of the improvement in China’s agricultural production capacity has been increased production of pesticide packaging waste, which is a major obstacle to the sustainable development of rural areas. Although the Chinese government has made great efforts to control pollution by waste pesticide packaging, a unified recycling system has not yet been established. Therefore, determining whether farmers are willing to participate in recycling of pesticide packaging is of great relevance. This study conducted a random questionnaire survey in which 459 responses were obtained in rural areas in Liaoning, Henan, Guizhou, Anhui, Gansu, and Hunan provinces. The disorderly classification logistic model was used to analyze the individual characteristics of farmers, pesticide container sizes, perception of risk, conditions of local facilities, and awareness. The result showed that the individual characteristics of farmers and awareness had no influence of their willingness to participate in recycling, whereas container size, perception of risk, and condition of local facilities did have an influence. Container specifications have the strongest correlation with farmers’ willingness to recycle, and attempts can be made to promote pesticide packaging of about 500 ml; raising farmers’ awareness of environmental safety and possible health hazards, all of which can increase farmers’ participation in the work. Using these results, this study proposed suggestions for pesticide container waste disposal. Attempts can be made to establish a suitable recycling model and management mechanism through the establishment of additional recycling points. Refine pesticide packaging waste recycling, collection and storage, disposal and other measures to purify the environment of origin, to achieve green agricultural development, and promote the construction of ecological civilization.

Discussion on High-standard Farmland Management and Protection Problems and Countermeasures

Affected by factors such as repeated delays in the epidemic, climate change and frequent natural disasters, food security risks are prominent, and it is imperative to ensure food security. The construction of high-standard farmland is a realistic need to improve comprehensive agricultural production capacity and ensure food security, but in the construction process, there is a phenomenon of attaching importance to construction and neglecting management and protection, resulting in the failure of the completed high-standard farmland to play a sustained and efficient role, resulting in damage to facilities and waste of resources. From the perspective of inadequate management and protection of high-standard farmland, this paper analyzes the causes, analyzes the problems, and puts forward countermeasures, so as to provide positive suggestions for the long-term benefits of high-standard farmland and ensure food security.

Does Nepal Have the Agriculture to Feed Its Population with a Sustainable Diet? Evidence from the Perspective of Human–Land Relationship

Nepal is one of the least developed countries in the world, with more than 80% of the population engaged in agricultural production and more than two-fifths of the population still living below the poverty line. Ensuring food security has always been a key national policy in Nepal. Using a nutrient conversion model and an improved resource carrying capacity model as well as statistical data and household questionnaires, an analysis framework for food supply balance is developed in this study, which quantitatively analyzes the balance of food supply and demand in Nepal from the perspectives of food and calories during the period 2000-2020. Nepal's agricultural production and consumption have increased significantly, and the diet has been relatively stable over the past two decades. The diet structure is stable and homogeneous, with plant products occupying the absolute position in overall dietary consumption. The supply of food and calories varies widely from region to region. Although the increasing supply level at the national scale can meet the needs of the current population, the food self-sufficiency level cannot meet the needs of the local population development at the county level due to the influence of population, geographical location, and land resources. We found that the agricultural environment in Nepal is fragile. The government can improve agricultural production capacity by adjusting the agricultural structure, improving the efficiency of agricultural resources, improving the cross-regional flow of agricultural products, and improving international food trade channels. The food supply and demand balance framework provided a reference for achieving balance between the supply and demand of food and calories in a resource-carrying land and provides a scientific basis for Nepal to achieve zero hunger under the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals. Furthermore, development of policies in order to increase agricultural productivity will be critical for improving food security in agricultural countries such as Nepal.

Synergistic Interconstruction of the Green Development Concept in Chinese Rural Ecological Agriculture

The development of industrialization has overwhelmed an ecological environment damaged by the modern agricultural method. The development of a circular economy, which focuses on green development while balancing the development of agricultural production capacity, has led to the emergence of ecoagriculture. This study examines the impact of the green development concept on farmers’ income, using the practice of the green development concept of ecoagriculture in Guangdong province, China, as an example. The study uses the entropy method to verify whether the green development concept advocated by top-down policies genuinely benefits farmers’ living standards. The study results are as follows. First, the green development concept’s application in Guangdong province’s agricultural production and the two-way granger causality relationship between farmer income and food production interact. Second, chemical fertilizers and pesticides have played an important role in promoting the development of agricultural production. Third, in the long run, the greater the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides will reduce farmers’ incomes. In summary, from the perspective of sustainable development, green development will promote increased income for China’s farmers and improve rural development. It is essential to implement the concept of green development in the process of rural modernization.

The Influence of Agricultural Production Mechanization on Grain Production Capacity and Efficiency

As an important production factor of grain production, agricultural machinery can effectively provide a theoretical basis for agricultural modernization development strategies by exploring its impact on grain production capacity and efficiency. This research starts from the two aspects of grain production capacity and grain production efficiency, takes rice, wheat, and corn as the research objects, and uses the C–D production function and Tobit model as the basis, respectively, to establish two impact models of production capacity and production efficiency. At the same time, according to the different emphases of the two models, this research designs different variable systems and finally uses the data from 2017 to 2021 for empirical analysis. The research results show that the influence coefficients of machinery service income and machinery power resource input on the total grain production capacity are 0.0976 and 0.0437, respectively, with a significant positive impact. At the same time, for rice crops, wheat crops, and corn crops, the amount of mechanization cost per mu has a significant positive impact on the yield capacity of crops, with impact coefficients of 0.0311, 0.0827, and 0.0233, respectively. The supply level of agricultural machinery services and the utilization rate of agricultural machinery services per mu have a significant positive impact on grain production efficiency. The impact coefficients of the supply level of agricultural machinery services per mu are 0.0192, 0.0587, and 0.0241, respectively. The impact coefficients of the agricultural machinery service utilization rate are 0.0059, 0.0148, and 0.0607, respectively, with a significant positive impact. It can be seen that agricultural production mechanization can effectively promote the improvement in grain production capacity and efficiency and promote the process of agricultural modernization. At present, most of the research on industrial mechanization services is biased toward the choice of agricultural mechanization services by farmers. However, this research has carried out the impact mechanism analysis from the perspective of time and space and the perspective of crops, rationalizing the impact mechanism of agricultural production capacity and agricultural production efficiency under agricultural mechanization.

Soil and Irrigation Water Salinity, and Its Consequences for Agriculture in Ethiopia: A Systematic Review

The salt problem in Ethiopia has been further exacerbated by a number of factors, including poor water quality, ineffective on-farm water management techniques, and a lack of appropriate and technically sound drainage infrastructure at irrigation sites. Despite its importance, no systematic review or documentation of the extent and consequences of the problem has been made so far. This scientific review primarily focuses on original studies published in the country, notably in arid and semi-arid regions where salinity issues have a significant influence. The data indicated that soil and irrigation water salinity have a substantial link with crops and agricultural communities in Ethiopia. Salinity has a significant impact on soil and water fertility, resulting in poorer agricultural production, food insecurity, and poverty. Salinity has a significant impact on crops in the country, from the germination stages to the harvesting stages during the growing season. If the current state of soil and water management continues, the severity of both soil and irrigation water salinity will reach an irreversible level that significantly impedes the country’s agricultural production capacity. As a result, cultured irrigation water treatment, crop selection based on salinity and sodicity levels, irrigation water quality, leaching, and fertilizer use in combination with organic manures are scientifically proven actions to address the salinity problem. Furthermore, to adequately reclaim and manage salinity in Ethiopia’s dryland saline zone, multi-stakeholder participation is required.

Research on the Use of Aerial Scanning and Gis in the Design of Sustainable Agricultural Production Extension Works in an Agritourist Farm in Romania

The use of scanning technologies and digital photogrammetry with the help of drones in the field of agritourism activities in Romania is a topic of novelty, because all the data necessary for the implementation or development of such research can be collected very quickly and with maximum efficiency. The classic methods are cumbersome and with a high consumption of inputs, and human and financial resources. The case study presents a practical method of applying this technology in the case of the agritourist farm REMMAR, from Vâlcea county, Romania, which wants to expand its agricultural production capacity with ecological products. Graphic support was obtained by scanning or digitizing existing maps in the physical/printed format and by acquiring data of interest in the digital format by photogrammetric methods and aerial field scanning of the studied area. The original elements of the topic are: how to obtain images by using photogrammetric methods; developing the methodology of the research and the actual development, from setting the basic objectives to obtaining and presenting the final results; elaboration of the methodology of the needs analysis and designing the specific data model; designing and the practical implementation of the geographic information system in terms of structure, methods, and means of software implementation. The successful implementation of the system was achieved only under the conditions of the existence of a data model specific to the field of action, and first realizing the conceptual foundation of the applicable data model, which would allow the registration, storage, extraction, processing, and effective analysis of the data of interest. From a theoretical and practical point of view, the research has a unique character in Romania, because it presents for the first time the development of a standard methodology for the design, expansion, and promotion of agritourism farms. The built geographic information system (GIS) is an effective tool for the management and control of the quality and efficiency of works specific to sustainable agricultural production.

Agricultural Economic Resilience in the Context of International Food Price Fluctuation—An Empirical Analysis on the Main Grain–Producing Areas in Northeast China

In the context of international food price fluctuations, agricultural economic development is usually subject to large shocks, which also leads to clear spatial–temporal differentiation in regional agricultural economic resilience. However, there is a paucity of retrievable studies on the evolutionary process of agricultural economic resilience and its impact mechanisms. Taking the impact of and disturbance caused by international food price fluctuations on the agricultural economy from 2005 to 2021 as the research background, this paper adopts the economic resilience analysis framework and selects gross agricultural output value indicators to measure the agricultural economic resilience of 12 cities in the main grain-producing areas in Northeast China–Sanjiang Plain and Songnen Plain. At the same time, the regression model is used to further analyze the spatial and temporal changes of agricultural economic resilience and the main influencing factors. Based on the results of the research, it can be concluded that: ① international food prices exert different degrees of influence on agricultural economic resilience at different stages. From 2005 to 2013, the agricultural economic resilience of the two plains changed less, and the resilience capacity performed better in both the period of falling and rising international food prices, while from 2014 to 2021, the agricultural economic resilience of the two plains changed more due to the great impact of international food price fluctuations, with a steep decline in resilience capacity in the period of falling international food prices from 2014 to 2017, followed by a rapid rebound between 2018 and 2021. ② There are differences in the resilience capacity of the agricultural economy in the main maize- and rice-producing areas. Although it is a fact that agricultural economic development in the two major plains is faster than the national average in most periods, the comparison reveals that the main corn-producing area (Songnen Plain) is more volatile and its resilience capacity is relatively weak in both periods of falling and rising food prices, while the main rice-producing area (Sanjiang Plain) is less volatile, indicating its relatively strong agricultural economic resilience capacity. ③ Factors affecting agricultural economic resilience behave differently over the three cycles. During the period of rising international food prices, indicators reflecting agricultural production capacity have a greater impact on agricultural economic resilience, while during the period of falling international food prices, indicators reflecting agricultural input intensity and agricultural support capacity have a greater impact on agricultural economic resilience.

A model of the U.S. food system: What are the determinants of the state vulnerabilities to production shocks and supply chain disruptions?

AbstractWe adapt a Ricardian general equilibrium model to the setting of U.S. domestic agri‐food trade to assess states’ vulnerability to adverse production shocks and supply chain disruptions. To this end, we analyze how domestic crop supply chains depend on fundamental state‐level comparative advantages—which reflect underlying differences in states’ cost‐adjusted productivity levels—and thereby illustrate the capacity of states to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of such disruptions to the U.S. agricultural sector. Based on the theoretical framework and our estimates of the model's structural parameters obtained using data on U.S. production, consumption, and domestic trade in crops, we undertake simulations to characterize the welfare implications of counterfactual scenarios depicting disruptions to (1) states’ agricultural productive capacity, and (2) interstate supply linkages. Our results emphasize that the distributional impacts of domestic supply chain disruptions hinge on individual states’ agricultural productive capacities, and that the ability of states to mitigate the impacts of adverse production shocks through trade relies on the degree to which states are able to substitute local production shortfalls by sourcing crops from other states.