Agricultural Policy Scenarios Research Articles

Evaluation of straw and agricultural policy impacts on the sustainability of the straw-based bioeconomy with an agent-based model

The use of straw as feedstock for the bioeconomy constitutes an important opportunity to fulfill the societal demand for biobased products and reduce the externalities incurred in the utilization of non-waste resources and alternative waste management methods. However, the insufficient supply of raw material and high reliance on government support have constrained further expansion of the industry. Additionally, the evaluation of policies is hindered by the complexity of bioeconomy systems, where multiple entities generate patterns that are difficult to analyze with conventional tools. We developed an agent-based model based on the Social-Ecological Systems framework and mixed methods to analyze the effect of various straw and agricultural policy scenarios on farmers, straw operators, and industrial plants, and their subsequent impacts on the socioeconomic and environmental outcomes of the straw-based industry. The results indicate that the combined use of straw retention and straw collection methods achieves optimal outcomes for sustainability, and that further adoption of straw collection in the study area can be facilitated by policies targeted towards farmer awareness, efficiency of operations, and market demand. The analysis also shows that policy strategies have a considerable influence over the distribution of economic value among stakeholders. Finally, this study demonstrates the usefulness of this modeling approach for the analysis of bioeconomy systems with multiple stakeholders, policy measures, and sustainability goals. Overall, these finding illustrate the implications of different policy and straw management approaches for the straw-based industry, and provide a useful guideline for the modeling of circular bioeconomy systems in China and elsewhere.

Brexit: potential impacts on the economic welfare of UK farm households

ABSTRACT This paper estimates the effects of potential post-Brexit UK trade and domestic agricultural policy scenarios on the economic welfare (real income) of farm households, at both regional (devolved administrations) and national level. Results show that depending on the selected scenario, particularly the retention or elimination of direct payments as currently provided under Pillar 1 of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the impact varies significantly across farm types and devolved administrations. Given the substantial contribution of CAP direct payments to farm business income, their removal amplifies farm vulnerability. Hence, non-farm income is critical in safeguarding the economic welfare of most UK farm households.

Implementation of the Principles of Sustainable Development by Agricultural Producers in Poland

Purpose: The aim of the research is to identify and assess the opportunities and processes of implementing sustainable development in agricultural activities. It is also to assess farmers’ awareness and knowledge of the principles of sustainable development in agriculture. Design/Methodology/Approach: Research on the application of the principles of sustainable development in agricultural production was carried out in 2019. Data was collected in four voivodships using the interview questionnaire. The research area was chosen deliberately. They were voivodships with the largest share of sown crops. The collected material was analyzed in terms of farmers’ knowledge of the principles of sustainable development in agricultural production and the level of their application on the farm. Findings: Based on the collected information, it was found that the respondents had a high level of knowledge about the sustainable development of agriculture. The results show significant differences in the application of sustainable development principles. It was also found that there is a relationship between the level of education and age of farmers and the application of sustainable development principles among them. Knowing the principles of sustainable development has not always coincided with the application. Practical Implications: The results obtained may be used for development of the agricultural policy, aimed at agricultural farms, as well as in programming agricultural development and shaping farmers’ income. Originality/Value: The results are original because they can be used to develop future agricultural policy scenarios in terms of compensation for conducting agricultural production in a sustainable way.

Bioeconomic impacts of agroforestry policies in France

Dealing with the erosion of terrestrial biodiversity has become of key importance in order to ensure ecosystems sustainability. Agricultural and forestry activities are one major anthropogenic driver of this decline. The underlying land-use changes result in the alteration of species habitats. In this context reconciling economic and ecological objectives of agricultural policies remains an ongoing challenge. In that respect, this paper presents the bioeconomic impacts of contrasted agricultural public policy scenarios. We developped a bio-economic model coupling an ecological model of bird dynamics with a micro-economic model of land management estimated with French data. We assessed the performances of the scenarios based on 5 ecological indicators accounting for various structural and functionnal characteristics while economic performances refer to land-use incomes. First our study confirms the potential long-term synergies between several ecological and economic objectives in grassland-based policies. Second we points out the non-trivial effect of agroforestry policies on agricultural biodiversity: despite a positive overall impact on the biodiversity population size, it implies important structural changes within the community. The choice between grassland-based policies such as in Agri-Environmental Schemes and agroforestry policies will thus depend on the ecological stakeholders’ preferences.

Using the Ecosystem Services Framework for Policy Impact Analysis: An Application to the Assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy 2014–2020 in the Province of Ferrara (Italy)

The objective of this study is to test a methodology for the classification of areas according to the provision of ecosystem services and for the evaluation of the effects of different agricultural policy scenarios. The evaluation focuses on the different categories of Ecosystem Services (ES) and applies a set of indicators available from secondary data sources. Two scenarios were compared, represented by the pre-2014 CAP and the CAP 2014–2020, based on the measures of the RDP 2014–2020 focused on enhancing ecosystems. The approach was implemented under two weighting solutions. First, we assumed that all indicators have equal weight. As a further step, the framework was integrated with a weighting procedure in order to account for the different importance of the various ES indicators. All municipalities offer a significant number of provisioning and cultural services, mainly connected to recreational opportunities. The indicators with higher importance in the area represent provisioning, supporting and regulating services, while cultural services have received less attention. Comparing the results of the simulation of different policy scenarios, there are no significant differences since the CAP 2014–2020 does not provide for measures likely to affect substantially the overall production of ecosystem services. While this result is plausible, the study confirms the limitations of available secondary data in providing a full account of ecosystem services provision and of their variations as a result of policy.

Achieving sustainable development in rural areas in Colombia: Future scenarios for biodiversity conservation under land use change

Agricultural expansion is a complex land use change phenomenon with deep environmental and socio-economic consequences, especially across tropical countries where most of this expansion is occurring. Here we use scenario and network analysis combined with sustainability assessment to understand the drivers of landscape change and their effects on sustainable development in Colombia’s rural areas, using the Central Magdalena region as a case study, and ultimately informing strategies to reconcile agricultural expansion with biodiversity conservation and rural development. Using this approach we investigated three environmental and agricultural policy scenarios: the Business as Usual scenario, enforcing a stronger regulatory framework, and adopting incentives. Our analysis show that the Business as Usual scenario is not supported by stakeholders and negatively affects most sustainability objectives with the predominant agricultural sectors in the region (cattle ranching and oil palm) not improving social inequality, and threatening biodiversity, natural resources, and food security. Both alternative scenarios improve overall sustainability, including biodiversity. Therefore to reconcile agricultural expansion, biodiversity and sustainable development, it is important to adopt a stronger regulatory and enforcement framework at different administrative levels, as well as incentive schemes focusing on small holders. Our study also shows that history cannot be ignored when thinking about the future and sustainability especially in areas with legacies of strong inequalities caused by armed conflict. Finally, we suggest that combining scenario analysis, network analysis, and sustainability assessment is a useful methodology for studying land use changes holistically, exploring complex systems at different scales, and informing locally-relevant strategies and recommendations, ultimately enabling science to be proactive.

Psychographic profile affects willingness to pay for ecosystem services provided by Mediterranean high nature value farmland

Our aim was to examine how psychographic profiles affect willingness to pay for ecosystem services in Mediterranean high nature value farmland. We combined psychographic analysis and economic valuation to: i) identify different psychographic profiles based on attitudes towards the economy and environment, rural development and agricultural intensification, food quality and consumption, and agri-environmental policy; and ii) measure the economic value that the psychographic profiles assign to key ecosystem services in different agricultural policy scenarios. We analysed two populations in Spain (the general population and the local residents of the study area). We identified two psychographic profiles in each population focusing on productivist and conservationist attitudes. Respondents in all profiles were highly concerned about forest wildfires, followed by the availability of quality products for those with productivist profiles, the biodiversity maintenance for the general conservationists and a more human-intervened landscape for the local conservationists. The willingness to pay for ecosystem services altogether differed between the psychographic profiles, from 88€ of general productivists to 334€ of local conservationists. We demonstrated that attitudes concerning ecosystem services have a strong influence on their willingness to pay. We argued that psychographic differences should be considered when designing and legitimising EU agri-environmental and conservation policies.

Integrated modelling of protein crop production responses to climate change and agricultural policy scenarios in Austria

Table S1. Crop-specific mean annual variable production costs, commodity prices, and labor requirements in hours. Crop Prices in €/t Variable costs in €/ha Labor in h/ha alfalfa 75 374 44 alsike clover 75 433 44 durum wheat 220 365 11 faba bean 142 399 9 fallow* 332 121 5 field pea 141 352 9 grain maize 131 442 17 oats 111 305 11 potato 95 2200 44 red clover 75 433 44 silage maize 26 549 13 soybean 275 405 8 spring barley 118 338 11 sugar beet 28 978 19 sunflower 232 468 9 timothy 75 466 44 triticale 110 347 11 vegetables 167 1876 58 winter barley 118 368 11 winter rape 300 354 10 winter rye 130 329 11 winter wheat 138 380 11

Evaluation of ecosystem services production under different Agricultural Policy Scenarios

The objective of this study is to test a methodology for the classification of areas according to the provision of ecosystem services (ES) and for the evaluation of the effects of different agricultural policy scenarios on such classification. The framework was applied to the classification of the 26 municipalities of the province of Ferrara, Italy. The case study area can be considered a traditional cultural landscape, characterised by historical-cultural sites, agricultural areas and protected areas of natural importance. The evaluation focuses on the different categories of ES and applies a set of indicators available from secondary data sources assessing different aspects of ES. From the policy perspective, the context was represented by the pre-2014 CAP and represented the Baseline scenario. In the next stage, the model simulated a New CAP scenario, based on the measures of the RDP 2014-2020 that are addressed on restoring and enhancing ecosystems. The classification approach in each of the two scenarios was implemented under two weighting solutions. As a general remark, it is observed that the provision of ES varies greatly from one municipality to the next. All the municipalities offer a significant number of provisioning and cultural services, mainly connected to recreational opportunities. From the experience carried out in this study, we can conclude that the application of the PROMETHEE, in particular with the integration of the weights for the ES indicators, has shown the potential to support the characterisation of agricultural land in terms of the provision of multiple ES. The study presents MCDA as a suitable tool to illustrate the differences in the provision of ES in different case study areas. To some extent, in spite of the limitations of this work, this also applies to analyzing the consequences of different agricultural policy scenarios in the provision of these services.

An integrated social and ecological modeling framework—impacts of agricultural conservation practices on water quality

Daloğlu, I., J. I. Nassauer, R. Riolo, and D. Scavia. 2014. An integrated social and ecological modeling framework—impacts of agricultural conservation practices on water quality. Ecology and Society 19(3): 12. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06597-190312

Forecasting the potential impacts of CAP-associated land use changes on farmland birds at the national level

The European Farmland Bird Indicator (FBI) has been adopted as a Structural and Sustainable Development Indicator by the EU. It identifies farmland bird trends and uses them as a proxy for wider farmland biodiversity health. This study analyzed the potential impacts of future Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) land uses on the abundances of the 20 farmland bird species included in the French FBI. Four agricultural policy scenarios were studied using the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact analysis (CAPRI) agricultural model. These four scenarios describe the most likely changes in crop areas and include regional bird population data from the French Breeding Bird Survey. A habitat association model was used to predict the potential effects that changes to five crop categories, as well as the total arable area, would have on species indices and the FBI. Our study demonstrates that the relative abundances of specialist farmland bird species depend on both crop cover type and the total crop area. Model predictions show a general decline in the abundance of farmland birds between 2007 and 2020. However, the loss of farmland birds is predicted to be less pronounced in the ‘CAP Greening’ scenario, although the predicted FBI values have relatively large errors. Moreover, whatever the forecasted CAP, such uniform agricultural changes do not affect bird populations or the FBI equally across all regions. The FBI's geographical variability in response to applied agricultural changes clearly indicates that a nationwide policy will not yield equal results but will instead depend on where in the country the agricultural changes occur. To optimize the effectiveness of the CAP on biodiversity at the national and continental levels, policies should be tested at smaller spatial levels, such as regions or farmlands, and then, the policies that represent the best options for biodiversity at these sublevels should be combined to create a national plan.

Optimal allocation of land and water resources in irrigated agriculture by means of Goal Programming: Application in Loudias River Basin

Agriculture is an economic activity that contributes significantly to the gross national
 product of a country, securing at the same time the viability of the rural sector and the
 social coherence. On the other hand, it can generate an environmental externality,
 especially concerning water resources that, in the name of higher crop productivity, are
 often overexploited or polluted. Most agricultural decision analysis studies are primarily
 focusing on farmers’ welfare optimization. Therefore, this externality is only examined as
 a negative environmental effect of different farming and agricultural policy scenarios.
 However, a proper decision analysis in the field of agricultural policy should be guided by
 the goal of finding a unique “optimal” solution out of a great number of possible
 alternatives that arise from a complex integrated socio-economic and environmental
 system, which incorporates significant conflicted interests.
 The main objective of this paper is to create, apply and evaluate a model that aims at the
 simultaneous maximization of farmer’s welfare and the minimization of the consequent
 environmental burden. More specifically, weighted and lexicographic goal programming
 techniques are employed. These techniques are implemented on a representative area in
 the Loudias River Basin in Greece to seek for a compromising solution - in terms of area
 and water allocation (under different crops) - resulting in figures that will come as close as
 possible to the decision maker’s economic, social and environmental goals.
 The information that is incorporated into the selected goals includes farmers’ welfare,
 characterized by securing income and employment levels, as well as environmental
 benefits, such as water resources protection from excessive application of fertilizers and
 from unsustainable use of irrigation water. Several weights or priority levels can be
 assigned on these goals, according to the intentions of the decision maker, that are likely
 to differentiate the final allocation of resources. Hence, the analysis is undertaken under
 different policy scenarios (e.g. environmental friendly, farmers’ friendly and compromising
 scenarios) and the results are well elucidated. In addition, it is further examined the
 different final outcome that may arise when the targets of the various economic and
 environmental goals are relaxed in order to reduce the information bias from the decision
 maker as well as to better perceive the indirect relationship between some competitive goals.

Ex-Ante Analysis of the Regional Impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy: A Rural–Urban Recursive Dynamic CGE Model Approach

A recursive dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is developed to assess the economic impacts of two Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) scenarios in six NUTS-3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) (NUTS-1: major socio-economic regions, NUTS-2: basic regions for the application of regional policies, NUTS-3: small regions for specific diagnoses) regions of the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to assess the scenario effects (change in production, prices, income, employment) in the rural and urban parts of these regions as well as on the different sectors. The two scenarios analysed are related to a 30% reduction in Pillar 1 (market measures and direct support to farmers) support and the introduction of an EU-wide flat rate level of Pillar 1 support complemented by a 45% increase in Pillar 2 (Rural Development Policy) funds. Results show that the overall gross domestic product effects are not significant, due to the relatively low importance of both the agricultural sector and CAP spending in the regional economies. However, impacts on the agricultural sector are quite important and differ according to the nature of the policy shock. Also, the structural characteristics of each case study influence the rural–urban and sectoral spillovers, including impacts on region-specific agricultural activity.

Groundwater Levels in Northern Texas High Plains: Baseline for Existing Agricultural Management Practices

New groundwater policies are being debated for the Northern Texas High Plains because of Ogallala Aquifer depletion. These policies should be evaluated using a calibrated groundwater model for assessing their impact on subsequent groundwater levels. The objective of this study was to calibrate and validate a regional groundwater model for predicting the impact of existing agricultural management practices on groundwater levels beneath 4 counties located in the Northern Texas High Plains. Results indicated that the MODFLOW-2000 groundwater model was calibrated and validated satisfactorily based on reproducing and comparing groundwater levels with coefficients of determination of 0.97 and 0.98, root mean square errors of 28.0 meters (91.9 feet) and 15.5 meters (50.9 feet). The model showed normalized root mean square errors of 6.9% and 4.3%, for calibration and validation, respectively. Analysis of prediction results indicated that 2 zones would become depleted if the current level of aquifer exploitation continues with no modification for the next 50 years. The calibrated model should assist water managers in evaluating alternative agricultural management policy scenarios. Citation: Hernández JE, Gowda PH, Marek TH, Howell TA, Ha W. 2013. Groundwater Levels in Northern Texas High Plains: Baseline for Existing Agricultural Management Practices. Texas Water Journal. 4(1):22-34. Available from: https://doi.org/10.21423/twj.v4i1.5356.

European Union agricultural policy scenarios' impacts on social sustainability of agricultural holdings

This paper aims to assess the impacts of household behaviour on social sustainability by simulating agricultural policy scenarios of the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). For this purpose a multicriteria model was formulated, at farm household level, in order to study the social impacts of the CAPs using different scenarios. The scenarios were chosen on the basis of the main EU policies affecting farm households, such as the alternative crops scenario, the Water Framework Directive scenario and the agrienvironmental schemes scenario. The data for this analysis resulted from the CAP-IRE project, a European FP7-funded project. The model includes a utility function with several conflicting criteria such as maximization of gross margin and risk and labour minimization. The model is further used to simulate the impacts on social sustainability by estimating main social indicators. The model is applied in two different farm types in Greece. The results show that the CAP scenarios have multiple social impacts on agricultural holdings, and particularly on the farm labour structure. These impacts have negative effect on social sustainability.

The effects of the Common Agricultural Policy on exit strategies and land re-allocation

This paper investigates how farm-households would dispose of farms following a decision by the farm-household to exit from farming, and in particular when a decision is made to sell the land The paper builds on data from a survey of stated intentions carried out in 9 EU countries at the beginning of 2009, using a probit Heckman model, where the model is applied to explain stated intentions to sell land in the case of farm-households that have decided to exit from farming activities, under two extreme Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) scenarios. The numbers of farm households opting to exit from agriculture increases sharply under the scenario characterised by the removal of the CAP. The statistically significant determinants are mostly consistent with previous studies, but show different behaviour when comparing the exit decision with the willingness to sell the farm. The outcomes of this study seem to deliver a clear policy message reinforcing the notion that the current CAP payments are important for staying in/exiting farming activities, but the land reallocation process clearly requires more targeted instruments. At the same time, greater attention should be paid to mechanisms of land rent or alternative land tenure solutions.

Parametric Optimization of Linear and Non-Linear Models via Parallel Computing to Enhance Web-Spatial DSS Interactivity

A web based Spatial Decision Support System (web SDSS) has been implemented in Thessaly, the most significant arable cropping region in Greece, to evaluate energy crop supply. The web SDSS uses an optimization module to support the decision process launching mathematical programming (MP) profit maximizing farm models. Energy to biomass raw material cost is provided in supply curve form incorporating physical land suitability for crops, farm structure, and Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) scenarios. To generate biomass supply curves, the optimization problem is parametrically solved for a number of steps within a price range determined by the user. The more advanced technique used to solve the MP model, the higher the delay of response to the user. In this paper, the authors examine how effectively the web SDSS response time can be reduced to the user requests using parallel solving of the corresponding optimization problem. The results are encouraging, since the total solution time drops significantly as the problem’s size increases, improving the users’ experience even when the underlying optimization models use advanced, time demanding modeling techniques. These statements are illustrated by comparing linear and non-linear agricultural sector models.

The common agricultural policy and the determinants of changes in EU farm size

Structural change provides the possibility of increasing the competitiveness and efficiency of the entire agricultural sector through a better allocation of productive factors. Amongst the productive factors, land is the one that most often limits farm development. This paper seeks to identify determinants of intended changes in farm size (represented by farmed area and measured as a reduction, expansion or no change) identified as stated intentions expressed through survey information, under two different Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) scenarios: (1) the Baseline, characterised by the Health Check policy as of 2009; and (2) a No-CAP scenario, assuming the elimination of all CAP payments and regulatory measures. Results highlight that CAP abolishment strongly reduces the intention to increase the amount of farmed area; the determinants of change in farmed area also change sharply amongst the two scenarios. Geographic variables, and farm characteristics such as farm organisation and the number of on-farm employees are relevant to explain the farmed area expansion. On the contrary, without the CAP, the relation between household and farm has strong effects on the different directions of change of farmed area. The results confirm that the different single payments scheme models affect the changes in demand of land.

Soil Landscapes of Canada: Building a National Framework for Environmental Information

The Soil Landscapes of Canada (SLC) is a national soil map and accompanying database of environmental information for all of Canada, produced and maintained by the Canadian Soil Information Service (CanSIS) which is a part of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. The SLC maps were originally published as a set of paper products for individual provinces and regions. The maps were digitized in CanSIS, using one of the first geographic information systems in the world, and linked to soil and landscape attribute tables to serve an evolving variety of spatial modelling applications. The SLCs form the lowest level of the National Ecological Framework for Canada. The latest public release of the SLC is version 3.2, which provides updated soil and landscape information for the agricultural areas of Canada. The SLC v3.2 digital coverage includes an extensive set of relational data tables. The component table lists the soil components in each agricultural polygon along with their predicted dominant slope, class, and extent. The soil component codes are also linked to soil attribute tables which define fundamental soil properties, such as classification and parent material, as well as a description of the soil horizons and key soil attributes to a depth of 100 cm. SLC v3.2 adds a new set of landform tables which identify the major landform type in each polygon and indicates the most likely soil components in the upper, mid slope, lower slope, and depressional positions. These soil and landform attributes are designed to support a wide variety of national and international environmental modelling applications, such as the prediction of soil quality change, soil carbon sequestration, and land productivity for different agricultural crops in response to agricultural policy, land management, and climate change scenarios. Future versions of the SLC are under development that will have improved spatial resolution and include soils data for areas beyond the present agricultural zone of Canada.

Groundwater balance and conservation under different water pricing and agricultural policy scenarios: A case study of the Hamadan-Bahar plain

Government subsidies for agricultural activities in recent decades have encouraged farmers of Hamadan-Bahar plain to extend the number of wells and irrigated farms, with no consideration of groundwater resource conservation. As a result, the level of the groundwater table has decreased continuously in this area, threatening the life of groundwater aquifer. The objective of the study is to analyze the impacts of irrigation water pricing and agricultural policy scenarios on aquifer conservation by considering the dynamic relations between aquifer groundwater balance and the agriculture sector. For this purpose a combination of simulation and optimization techniques is considered in a dynamic framework. Firstly, dynamic treatments of groundwater and the main factors affecting the balance of studied aquifer are simulated. Then, optimization behaviour of agriculture sector related to farmers' decision-making processes is defined on the time horizon. Thereafter all of the equations are used simultaneously by a non-linear dynamic programming method, which maximize present value of gross margins of agriculture sector subject to groundwater constrains and other input limitations. The analysis of the results indicates that water pricing by itself can considerably reduce the agricultural demand for aquifer groundwater in the Hamadan-Bahar plain.