Agricultural Management Scenarios Research Articles

Introducing QAnnAGNPS - A QGIS plugin to facilitate the use of AnnAGNPS (Annualized Agricultural Nonpoint source model)

AnnAGNPS is a watershed-scale hydrological model designed to analyze the impact of nonpoint source pollution in agricultural environments. Its unique capabilities have defined it as an essential model that is used globally to evaluate agricultural management scenarios. However, it does not currently have a user-friendly graphical interface that provides a simple way for users to perform simulations. This article presents QAnnAGNPS, a plugin developed in QGIS to facilitate access to the simulation capabilities of AnnAGNPS through a user-friendly interface and the addition of extra features, including data visualization. QAnnAGNPS, in addition to fulfilling this valuable task, opens the door to the incorporation of additional functions already included in other similar hydrological models. The plugin has been tested in the Latxaga cereal basin in Navarra, Spain, and has demonstrated that it provides a simpler way to perform simulations and visualize results compared to AnnAGNPS.

A comparative study of different optimization algorithms for the optimum operation of the Mahabad dam reservoir

In this study, the performance of the Differential Evolution (DE) Algorithm, the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Teaching-Learning Based Optimization (TLBO) Algorithm are compared for the optimum operation of the Mahabad dam reservoir. The Reservoir supplies agricultural, environmental, municipal and industrial water demands of the area. The desktop reserve model is used for estimating the minimum environmental demand. Six alternative agricultural water management scenarios are proposed and a sensitivity analysis is performed on the agricultural demands under different scenarios. The results of the study indicate that both DE and GA algorithms performed nearly equally; however, the DE Algorithm reached its result more quickly with the reliability of 74.19 % compared to the results of the GA and TLBO. A 30 % decrease in agricultural demand in the fifth scenario with 87.56 % reliability provides the best results.

Evaluating the incentive for soil organic carbon sequestration from carinata production in the Southeast United States

Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be increased by cultivating bioenergy crops to produce low-carbon fuels, improving soil quality and agricultural productivity. This study evaluates the incentives for farmers to sequester SOC by adopting a bioenergy crop, carinata. Two agricultural management scenarios – business as usual (BaU) and a climate-smart (no-till) practice – were simulated using an agent-based modeling approach to account for farmers’ carinata adoption rates within their context of traditional crop rotations, the associated profitability, influences of neighboring farmers, as well as their individual attitudes. Using the state of Georgia, US, as a case study, the results show that farmers allocated 1056 × 103 acres (23.8%; 2.47 acres is equivalent to 1 ha) of farmlands by 2050 at a contract price of $6.5 per bushel of carinata seeds and with an incentive of $50 Mg−1CO2e SOC sequestered under the BaU scenario. In contrast, at the same contract price and SOC incentive rate, farmers allocated 1152 × 103 acres (25.9%) of land under the no-till scenario, while the SOC sequestration was 483.83 × 103 Mg CO2e, which is nearly four times the amount under the BaU scenario. Thus, this study demonstrated combinations of seed prices and SOC incentives that encourage farmers to adopt carinata with climate-smart practices to attain higher SOC sequestration benefits.

Assessing the phosphorus cycle in European agricultural soils: Looking beyond current national phosphorus budgets

Phosphorus (P) is an essential nutrient for all crops, yet its excess negatively affects public health, the environment, and the economy. At the same time, rock P is a critical raw material due to its importance for food production, the finite geological deposits, and its unequal regional distribution. As a consequence, nutrient management is addressed by numerous environmental policies. Process-based biogeochemical models are valuable instruments to monitor the P cycle and predict the effect of agricultural management policies. In this study, we upscale the calibrated DayCent model at European level using data-derived soil properties, advanced input data sets, and representative management practices. Our results depicted a P budget with an average P surplus (0.11 kg P ha−1 year−1), a total soil P (2240.0 kg P ha−1), and available P content (77.4 kg P ha−1) consistent with literature and national statistics. Through agricultural management scenarios, we revealed a range of potential changes in the P budget by 2030 and 2050, influenced by the interlink of P with biogeochemical carbon and nitrogen cycles. Thus, we developed a powerful assessment tool capable of i) identifying areas with P surplus or deficit at high spatial resolution of 1 km2, (ii) pinpointing areas where a change in agricultural management would be most urgent to reach policy goals in terms of environmental pollution, food security and resource efficiency of a critical raw material, and iii) assessing the response of the P cycle to modifications in agricultural management.

A high-resolution inventory of ammonia emissions from agricultural fertilizer application and crop residue in Taiwan

The presence of ammonia (NH3) in the atmosphere has an impact on atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, air quality, and environmental systems. NH3 emissions in Taiwan are mainly driven by N fertilizer application and livestock operations, and their estimates are associated with considerable inaccuracies and uncertainties. In this study, a high-resolution (1 × 1 km) NH3 emissions inventory for agricultural fertilizers and crop residues in Taiwan was developed for 2016. The NH3 emissions were estimated based on detailed local activity data, such as seasonally varying planted areas and fertilizer application rates, and emissions from 88 different crops were resolved to better capture the seasonality and spatial heterogeneity. Emissions factors (EFs) are governed by ambient temperature, soil acidity and other factors. We further estimated NH3 emissions from two agricultural management scenarios, conventional farming (CF) and appropriate fertilization for crops (AF), to quantify the potential reduction in NH3 emissions due to government policy. The NH3 emissions from agricultural fertilizers and crop residues in Taiwan were approximately 25010 (20298.3) tons in 2016 for the CF (AF) scenario. Synthetic N fertilizer contributed 66.9% to the total emissions, followed by organic N fertilizer (32.1%), with crop residue (1.0%) being a relatively small source in the CF scenario. The NH3 emissions hotspots were located in the central to southern part of western Taiwan, where intense agricultural activities are conducted. The peak NH3 emissions occurred in spring and summer and were mainly associated with the cultivation of the first and second seasons of rice. We validated our estimated NH3 emissions with a satellite NH3 column, finding that the spatial-temporal variations in NH3 emissions from fertilizer application were in good coherency with the NH3 column concentration.

Optimizing strategies to reduce the future carbon footprint of maize under changing climate

Many countries have set ambitious goals to achieve carbon neutrality around 2050. In this context food production systems are of interest, as they contribute one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions. This study assessed the carbon footprint (CF) of maize production under different agricultural management practices and scenarios based on a cradle-to-farm gate life cycle analysis and DNDC model, considering future climate impacts and clean energy use. Maintaining the current energy use strategy, under the management of residue removal, future climate change will lead to a 3.0% increase in the CF of maize, while in the residue returning system, the CF of maize will decrease by 40.9%. In the highly mechanized maize production system, the CF of maize was shown to be mainly determined by the CO2 equivalent emissions (CE) from upstream production and in-field portions, including soil emissions and the use of agricultural machinery. Residue return plays a critical role in establishing maize's CF, making maize fields a carbon sink. The use of clean energy can reduce the CF of maize by 482.9±8.6 kg CO2 eq ha−1. Our study serves as a reference for determining the potential of mitigating the total carbon emissions from maize production by 2050.

The economic-administrative role of geographic information systems in rural tourism and exhaustive local community development in African marginalized communities

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to examine the latent part of geographic information systems in inclusive sustainable rural tourism, community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) and community development and empowerment in Southern Africa, Africa generally and many rural areas elsewhere worldwide.Design/methodology/approachThe viewpoint utilizes literature and document reviews to assess African and worldwide agricultural, environmental and tourism resources management scenarios. It thus liaises with CBNRM and geographic information systems in sustainable tourism and local community development applications.FindingsThis review viewpoint uncovers a better potential synergetic relationship between tourism and rural (agricultural) activities that geographic information systems along a concept of CBNRM can amplify. Hence, it has poised a need for a decent and integrated tourism strategy to develop and empower the pertinent communities in many rural and marginalized areas within the continent.Originality/valueMany rural communities in Southern Africa and Africa broadly dwell in low-income areas. Such milieus are rich in natural biodiversity, including tourism destination areas. Geographic information systems, sustainable tourism and CBNRM can form a gestalt of local community development projects within their environs.

Protecting habitats in low-intensity tropical farmland using carbon-based payments for ecosystem services

Tropical land-use change for agricultural expansion is the primary driver of global biodiversity decline. Efforts to stem this decline often focus on protecting pristine habitats or returning farmland to forest, yet such approaches fail to protect vulnerable taxa reliant on habitats within low-intensity farmland. We assess the economic viability of carbon-based payments for ecosystem services (PES) to protect farmland trees and fallowing in Ghana, which provide vital wintering sites for imperiled Afro-palearctic migrant birds and enhance landscape-level carbon storage. We estimate the carbon breakeven prices (BEPs) associated with alternative agricultural management scenarios that protect existing farmland trees. BEPs associated with tree protection on existing farmland were very low, ranging from US$2.49 to US$6.45 t−1 CO2. Extending and reintroducing fallow periods also carried competitive BEPs, US$4.67—US$15.45 t−1 CO2, when combined with the protection of 50 trees per hectare. Accounting for leakage and economic uncertainty increased BEPs considerably, but scenarios protecting farmland trees and extending fallow periods remained below EU Emissions Trading Scheme prices. Protecting low-intensity farmland habitats and associated biodiversity is cost-effective under carbon-based PES. Implementation should be combined with efforts to close yield gaps, providing greater local food security and resilience.

Simulation of Irrigation Demand and Control in Catchments – A Review of Methods and Case Studies

AbstractThe world's water resources are continuously facing challenges in fulfilling the needs of increasing agricultural water demand with finite or diminishing resources. Therefore, it is important to quantify the amount of irrigation water required to attain sustainable yield at a local, regional, and global level, especially in arid and semi‐arid regions. This is mostly quantified by using agro‐hydrological or agricultural models. The advances in simulation models and several options incorporated in them allow catchment/site‐specific application of irrigation water to depict the field management practices undertaken by farmers. The objective of the present study is to provide a review of the simulation of irrigation water demand at catchment scale by agro‐hydrological and agricultural models. This study discusses the different types of models, their dimensions, and the hydrological and agricultural process models incorporated into them. Additionally, this review provides an overview of how irrigation can be scheduled, how water is applied, and from which sources irrigation water can be extracted by the considered models, taking horizontal hydrological connectivity into consideration. Adding to the model review, seven different fields of innovative case studies are covered. Many agricultural models have been applied in a regional context without simulating horizontal hydrological fluxes, but only a few hydrological catchment models provide full support of both irrigation and plant growth simulation, which are important for the simulation of future crop yield under different climatic and agricultural management scenarios.

Community Structure of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi in Soils of Switchgrass Harvested for Bioenergy.

Learning more about the biodiversity and composition of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) under alternative agricultural management scenarios may be important to the sustainable intensification of switchgrass grown as a bioenergy crop. Using PacBio single-molecule sequencing and taxonomic resolution to the level of amplicon sequence variant (ASV), we assessed the effects of nitrogen amendment on AMF associating with switchgrass and explored relationships between AMF and switchgrass yield across three sites of various productivities in Wisconsin. Nitrogen amendment had little effect on AMF diversity metrics or community composition. While AMF ASV diversity was not correlated with switchgrass yield, AMF family richness and switchgrass yield had a strong, positive relationship at one of our three sites. Each of our sites was dominated by unique ASVs of the species Paraglomus brasilianum, indicating regional segregation of AMF at the intraspecific level. Our molecular biodiversity survey identified putative core members of the switchgrass microbiome, as well as novel clades of AMF, especially in the order Paraglomerales and the genus Nanoglomus Furthermore, our phylogenies unite the cosmopolitan, soil-inhabiting clade deemed GS24 with Pervetustaceae, an enigmatic family prevalent in stressful environments. Future studies should isolate and characterize the novel genetic diversity found in switchgrass agroecosystems and explore the potential yield benefits of AMF richness.IMPORTANCE We assessed the different species of beneficial fungi living in agricultural fields of switchgrass, a large grass grown for biofuels, using high-resolution DNA sequencing. Contrary to our expectations, the fungi were not greatly affected by fertilization. However, we found a positive relationship between plant productivity and the number of families of beneficial fungi at one site. Furthermore, we sequenced many species that could not be identified with existing reference databases. One group of fungi was highlighted in an earlier study for being widely distributed but of unknown taxonomy. We discovered that this group belonged to a family called Pervetustaceae, which may benefit switchgrass in stressful environments. To produce higher-yielding switchgrass in a more sustainable manner, it could help to study these undescribed fungi and the ways in which they may contribute to greater switchgrass yield in the absence of fertilization.

Feasibility of the 4 per 1000 initiative in Bavaria: A reality check of agricultural soil management and carbon sequestration scenarios

An increase of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in agricultural soils does not only have positive effects on soil quality and soil resilience but may also contribute to climate change mitigation. The ‘4per1000′ (4p1000) initiative launched at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris aims at increasing global SOC stocks in 0–40 cm depth by annually 4‰ in order to compensate the increase of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In this study we analysed the feasibility of this target for agricultural soils in Bavaria, Southeast Germany. Assuming a total organic carbon (OC) amount of 276 Tg currently stored in the upper 40 cm of agricultural soils in Bavaria (cropland and grassland), the 4p1000 goal corresponds to an annual carbon (C) sequestration of 1.1 Tg. Based on a site-specific analysis of present soil management, we developed spatially explicit C sequestration scenarios including five promising management practices (cover cropping, improved crop rotation, organic farming, agroforestry and conversion of arable land to grassland). The results revealed that the 4p1000 target is not feasible for Bavaria. The total potential of the five practices to sequester C resulted in increases in 0.3 to 0.4TgOC per year corresponding to around 1‰ of the present SOC stocks. Expansion of cover crops and agroforestry were identified as most promising options to increase SOC in agricultural soils. Although only around 1.5% of Bavaria’s yearly GHG emissions would be compensated, this represents an essential contribution to climate change mitigation. Besides the need to develop new incentive systems (particularly for agroforestry), implementation of networks including farms and/or field trials that demonstrate improved soil management practices would be required to inform farmers and other stakeholders about the benefits of such practices. To maintain a resilient agriculture that withstands more extreme weather conditions in the future, healthy soils are needed. We therefore conclude that expected positive effects of a SOC stock increase on nutrient and water storage, soil erosion, biodiversity and food security are crucial for climate change adaptation.

Effects of upscaling temporal resolution of groundwater flow and transport boundary conditions on the performance of nitrate-transport models at the regional management scale

Managed aquifer recharge and changes in crop type or nutrient management on agricultural lands are promising approaches to address groundwater quality degradation by nitrate. Tools to assess nonpoint-source contaminant transport are needed to better understand the interaction between agricultural management practices and long-term nitrate dynamics in groundwater basins. This study investigates the impact of time-resolution upscaling of groundwater flow stresses (i.e., recharge, pumping, and evapotranspiration rates) on the long-term prediction of nitrate transport at the regional scale. A three-dimensional, monthly transient flow and nitrate-transport model using MODFLOW and MT3D is applied as the reference simulation. The reference model results are compared to temporally upscaled models with (1) upscaled annual-averaged flow and transport stresses and (2) steady-state flow stresses, across different management scenarios. Models with annual-averaged flow and nitrate-loading stresses were found to be the best alternative to the reference model. However, employing a steady-state flow field to parameterize transient transport models, using a time series of spatially variable annual total contaminant loading, provides a useful alternative to predict the trend and variability of nitrate-concentration breakthrough curves at wells across the regional scale and to differentiate the effects of various agricultural management scenarios, if the history of the source contaminant mass is known. The difference between concentrations resulting from steady-state-flow versus transient-flow models is less than 2 mgN/L for nearly 75% of shallow groundwater cells in the model. However, the steady-state-flow-model-based transport simulation does not capture short-term oscillations of nitrate concentrations in pumping wells at the local scale.

Impacts of climate change and agricultural activities on water quality in the Lower Kaidu River Basin, China

In the context of climate change and over-exploitation of water resources, water shortage and water pollution in arid regions have become major constraints to local sustainable development. In this study, we established a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for simulating non-point source (NPS) pollution in the irrigation area of the lower reaches of the Kaidu River Basin, based on spatial and attribute data (2010–2014). Four climate change scenarios (2040–2044) and two agricultural management scenarios were input into the SWAT model to quantify the effects of climate change and agricultural management on solvents and solutes of pollutants in the study area. The simulation results show that compared to the reference period (2010–2014), with a decline in streamflow from the Kaidu River, the average annual irrigation water consumption is expected to decrease by 3.84x108 m3 or 8.87% during the period of 2040–2044. Meanwhile, the average annual total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in agricultural drainage canals will also increase by 10.50% and 30.06%, respectively. Through the implementation of agricultural management measures, the TN and TP in farmland drainage can be reduced by 14.49% and 16.03%, respectively, reaching 661.56 t and 12.99 t, accordingly, and the increasing water efficiency can save irrigation water consumption by 4.41 x108 m3 or 4.77%. The results indicate that although the water environment in the irrigation area in the lower reaches of the Kaidu River Basin is deteriorating, the situation can be improved by implementing appropriate agricultural production methods. The quantitative analysis results of NPS pollutants in the irrigation area under different scenarios provide a scientific basis for water environmental management in the Kaidu River Basin.

Evaluation of Groundwater Resources in Response to Agricultural Management Scenarios in the Central Valley, California

AbstractDependence on groundwater throughout the Central Valley of California has resulted in severe and unsustainable groundwater depletion. In this research, we used the Central Valley hydrologic...

Impact and mitigation of global change on freshwater-related ecosystem services in Southern Europe

Global change is severely impacting the biosphere that, through ecosystem services, sustains human well-being. Such impacts are expected to increase unless mitigation management actions are implemented. Despite the call from the scientific and political arenas for their implementation, few studies assess the effectiveness of actions on freshwater-related services. Here, by modeling water provisioning, water purification and erosion control under current and future conditions, we assess future trends of service provision with and without mitigation policies. In particular, two different storylines combine multiple climate, land use/land cover and agricultural management scenarios, and represent a pro-efficiency business as usual (myopic storyline) and a future that considers social and environmental sustainability (sustainable storyline). The mentioned services are modeled for the horizon 2050 and in three South European river basins: Ebro, Adige and Sava, which encompass the wide socio-environmental diversity of the region.Our results indicate that Mediterranean basins (Ebro) are extremely vulnerable to global change respect Alpine (Adige) or Continental (Sava) basins, as the Ebro might experience a decrease in water availability up to 40%, whereas the decrease is of only 2–4% in the Adige or negligible in the Sava. However, Mediterranean basins are also more sensitive to the implementation of mitigation actions, which would compensate the drop in water provisioning. Results also indicate that the regulating services of water purification and erosion control will gain more relevance in the future, as both services increased between 4 and 20% in both global change scenarios as a result of the expansion of agricultural and urban areas. Overall, the impact of global change is diverse among services and across river basins in Southern Europe, with the Mediterranean basins as the most vulnerable and the Continental as the least. The implementation of mitigation actions can compensate the impact and therefore deserves full political attention.

OMERE: A Long‐Term Observatory of Soil and Water Resources, in Interaction with Agricultural and Land Management in Mediterranean Hilly Catchments

Core Ideas OMERE is a Mediterranean observatory of two farmed catchments in Tunisia and France. Water, contaminant, and erosion fluxes are monitored from plot to catchment scales. Soils and land use in relation with agriculture are surveyed. Scientific results concern elementary processes and integrated catchment functioning. Models were conceived for evaluation of land use and agricultural management scenarios. To account for the diversity of agricultural and ecosystem situations in hilly Mediterranean areas, the agro‐hydrological observatory OMERE (Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Environnement Rural et de l'Eau) monitors two farmed catchments—one in northern Tunisia and the other in southern France. Mediterranean regions are typified by a highly variable climate, with an alternation of long droughts and intense storms, and by a strong heterogeneity of soil properties, due to a combination of climate, relief, parent materials, sparse vegetation, intense land use, man‐made infrastructure (ditches, terraces, etc.), and agricultural activities. In this context, OMERE aims to document the impacts of agricultural and land management on mass fluxes in Mediterranean farmed headwater catchments. The observation strategy is motivated by monitoring water, sediment, and contaminant fluxes and hydrologic and climatic variables at different spatial scales from cultivated plots and landscape elements to the catchment scale. These measurements have been performed at a fine time resolution over a long‐term scale and by surveying land use, agricultural practices, and soil surface characteristics. The long‐term observation strategy intends to support integrative multidisciplinary research for elucidating the conditions that improve soil and water management and delivery of ecosystem services in a Mediterranean rainfed cultivated context. The observatory has led to scientific insights regarding three scientific objectives: (i) to better understand the fluxes of water, erosion, and contaminants, especially pesticides, and of their natural and anthropogenic drivers on short‐ and long‐term scales; (ii) to analyze the aggregate effects of farming and land management on mass fluxes across scales, from plot to catchment or landscape scales; and (iii) to derive new scenarios for sustainable agricultural management and improved delivery of ecosystem services.

Water Budget in a Tile Drained Watershed under Future Climate Change Using SWATDRAIN Model

The SWATDRAIN model was developed by incorporating the subsurface flow model, DRAINMOD, into a watershed scale surface flow model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment tool), to simulate the hydrology and water quality of agricultural watersheds. The model is capable of simulating hydrology under different agricultural management and climate scenarios. As an application of the SWATDRAIN model, the impact of climate change on surface/subsurface flow was evaluated in the Canagagigue Creek watershed in southern Ontario, Canada. Using the assumption that there has been no change in land cover and land management, the model was applied to simulate annual, seasonal, and monthly changes in surface and subsurface flows at the outlet of the watershed under current and future climate conditions. The climate scenario under consideration in this study for 2015–2044 was derived from CGCM2 (Canadian Global Circulation Model 2), with A2 scenario for future climatic simulation. The SWATDRAIN model’s ability to predict the impacts of future climate change scenarios in agricultural watersheds due to monthly NSE (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency), PBIAS (Percent Bias), and RSR (Root Mean Square Error) values of 0.74, 3.67, and 0.37, respectively, for the validation phase. The results showed that general climate change effects more spring and winter hydrology than summer hydrology. The results show that the annual flow is expected to increase in future, which will lead to an increase in the sediment loads in the stream.

Impacts of climate change on hydrology, water quality and crop productivity in the Ohio-Tennessee River Basin

Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture is the main source of nitrogen and phosphorus in the stream systems of the Corn Belt region in the Midwestern US. The eastern part of this region is comprised of the Ohio-Tennessee River Basin (OTRB), which is considered a key contributing area for water pollution and the Northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. A point of crucial importance in this basin is therefore how intensive corn-based cropping systems for food and fuel production can be sustainable and coexist with a healthy water environment, not only under existing climate but also under climate change conditions in the future. To address this issue, a OTRB integrated modeling system has been built with a greatly refined 12-digit subbasin structure based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) water quality model, which is capable of estimating landscape and in-stream water and pollutant yields in response to a wide array of alternative cropping and/or management strategies and climatic conditions. The effects of three agricultural management scenarios on crop production and pollutant loads exported from the crop land of the OTRB to streams and rivers were evaluated: (1) expansion of continuous corn across the entire basin, (2) adoption of no-till on all corn and soybean fields in the region, (3) implementation of a winter cover crop within the baseline rotations. The effects of each management scenario were evaluated both for current climate and projected mid-century (2046-2065) climates from seven global circulation models (GCMs). In both present and future climates each management scenario resulted in reduced erosion and nutrient loadings to surface water bodies compared to the baseline agricultural management, with cover crops causing the highest water pollution reduction. Corn and soybean yields in the region were negligibly influenced from the agricultural management scenarios. On the other hand, both water quality and crop yield numbers under climate change deviated considerably for all seven GCMs compared to the baseline climate. Future climates from all GCMs led to decreased corn and soybean yields by up to 20% on a mean annual basis, while water quality alterations were either positive or negative depending on the GCM. The study highlights the loss of productivity in the eastern Corn Belt under climate change, the need to consider a range of GCMs when assessing impacts of climate change, and the value of SWAT as a tool to analyze the effects of climate change on parameters of interest at the basin scale. Keywords: agricultural management scenarios, corn-based systems, global circulation models, hydrology, water quality, crop yields, SWAT, Ohio-Tennessee River Basin DOI: 10.3965/j.ijabe.20150803.1497 Online first on [2015-03-19] Citation: Panagopoulos Y, Gassman P W, Arritt R W, Herzmann D E, Campbell T D, Valcu A, et al. Impacts of climate change on hydrology, water quality and crop productivity in the Ohio-Tennessee River Basin. Int J Agric & Biol Eng, 2015; 8(3): 36－53.

Modelling soil organic carbon in Danish agricultural soils suggests low potential for future carbon sequestration

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is in active exchange with the atmosphere. The amount of organic carbon (OC) input into the soil and SOC turnover rate are important for predicting the carbon (C) sequestration potential of soils subject to changes in land-use and climate. The C-TOOL model was developed to simulate the dynamics of SOC storage on medium- to long-term trends in the whole soil profile (0–100cm), and was used to compare SOC changes under typical Danish farming conditions for two sites in Denmark having the greatest possible temperature differences for the period 1986 and 2012. For this purpose, various agricultural management scenarios were considered including characteristic crop rotations with and without the presence of cover crops, and the application of organic amendments. We compared these simulated management effects with management effects estimated from Danish SOC monitoring network over the same period of time. The results of the C-TOOL simulations demonstrated that application of organic manure, use of cover crop, and converting the croplands to grassland had the potential to increase SOC in Danish mineral soils. The simulated data also suggested that C-TOOL gave a reasonably good account of SOC changes when compared with measured SOC values from a Danish national monitoring network, and the simulated management effects agree well with results of long-term experimental trials. The estimates show rather small potential for increasing SOC in Danish cropping systems, even when there is conversion to rotations with more grasslands or the use of cover crops is increased.

Surface water quality and cropping systems sustainability under a changing climate in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Agricultural nonpoint source pollution is the main source of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the intensely row-cropped Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) stream system and is considered the primary cause of the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone according to the US Environmental Protection Agency. A point of crucial importance in this region is therefore how intensive corn (<i>Zea mays</i> L.)-based cropping systems for food and fuel production can be sustainable and coexist with a healthy water environment, not only under existing climate conditions but also under a changed climate in the future. To address this issue, a UMRB integrated modeling system has been built with a greatly refined 12-digit subbasin structure based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) water quality model, which is capable of estimating landscape and in-stream water and pollutant yields in response to a wide array of alternative cropping and/or management strategies and climatic conditions. The effects of the following four agricultural management scenarios on crop production and pollutant loads exported from the cropland of the UMRB to streams and rivers were evaluated: (1) expansion of continuous corn across the entire basin, (2) adoption of no-till on all corn and soybean (<i>Glycine max</i> L.) fields in the region, (3) substitution of the traditional continuous corn and corn–soybean rotations with an extended five-year rotation consisting of corn, soybean, and three years of alfalfa (<i>Medicago sativa</i> L.), and (4) implementation of a winter cover crop within the baseline rotations. The effects of each management scenario were evaluated both for current climate and a projected midcentury (2046 to 2065) climate from a General Circulation Model (GCM). All four scenarios behaved similarly under the historical and future climate, generally resulting in reduced erosion and nutrient loadings to surface water bodies compared to the baseline agricultural management. Continuous corn was the only scenario which resulted in increased N pollution while no-till was the most environmentally effective and able to sustain production at almost the same levels. Rye (<i>Secale cereale</i> L.) cover crop within the fallow period was also effective in reducing erosion and both sediment-bound and soluble forms of nutrients. The results indicated that alternative management practices could reduce sediment, N, and P exports from UMRB cropland by up to 50% without significantly affecting yields. Results for the climate change scenario showed that the effectiveness of the management scenarios was strongly linked to the reduced water availability predicted under the future climate, which assisted in mitigating pollutant transport, although with a small loss of production.