Agri-food Trade Research Articles

Opportunities for Kazakhstan's agricultural exports to the Chinese market

This research delves into the dynamic relationship between China and Kazakhstan in the realm of agri-food trade, exploring the evolving landscape from 2012 to 2022. China, as the world's second-largest economy, commands a significant share in global agri-food imports, presenting a lucrative opportunity for Kazakhstan. Notably, China represents about 8% of the world's agri-food imports and stands as Kazakhstan's largest trading partner. In 2021, China emerged as one of the top four largest buyers of Kazakh food. This demographic shift has implications for the evolving demand in China's agri-food market and offers an avenue for Kazakhstan to tap into this growing consumer base. Despite being one of Kazakhstan's major trading partners, the country currently holds a modest share of China's agri-food market. The Kazakh government, aligning with China's "Belt and Road" initiative, aspires to double agricultural exports by 2025. Our analysis underscores the growing demand in China's agri-food market and its potential for Kazakhstan. Challenges such as technical disparities, logistical limitations, and institutional constraints are identified, necessitating collaborative solutions. The conclusion emphasizes the need for concrete actions, including technological advancements, infrastructure improvement, and standards harmonization, to enhance Kazakhstan's competitiveness in the Chinese market.

Development of mutual agri-food trade between Kazakhstan and China

Development of mutual agri-food trade between Kazakhstan and China

The European Union-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement as a tool for environmentally sustainable land use governance

After twenty years of arduous negotiations, in 2019 the European Union (EU) and the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) announced the conclusion of a landmark trade agreement. Celebratory fireworks, however, were soon replaced by less desirable signs of smoke: the burning of the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, which has placed the bi-regional partnership under close public scrutiny. Since then, a lively debate among scholars, policymakers, activists, and private sector stakeholders has unfolded in an effort to assess the economic, social, and environmental implications of the agreement. To contribute to this debate, we use the EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement (EMTA) as a case study to discuss the complexities of transitioning to a global green trade policy paradigm, questioning whether free trade agreements could effectively promote sustainable land use governance. Bearing in mind the current environmental footprint of EU imports of Brazilian commodities, we illustrate the challenges inherent to decoupling international agri-food trade and land conversion, examining the current estimates and projections regarding the EMTA's potential impact on land-use change in Brazil. We also investigate the sustainable development provisions in the EU-Mercosur agreement, reviewing its land conversion-related clauses. While the EMTA has limitations common to other free trade agreements, it could be a useful additional tool for improving sustainability governance in the existing trade between the two regions by establishing a structured and legally stable platform for cooperation and implementing joint initiatives. The EMTA could set a positive benchmark for future free trade agreements that Mercosur might negotiate with other countries that are larger importers of agricultural commodities.

Foreign Trade as a Channel of Pandemic Transmission to the Agricultural Sector in Poland

The resilience of economic and social systems to shocks is one of the fundamental goals of sustainable development. One such event that seriously disrupted the global economy was the COVID-19 pandemic. It posed a direct threat to people’s health and lives and also caused an economic crisis. One of the effects of the crisis was the loss of stability in agricultural production with the resulting threat to food security. The foreign trade channel played a vital role in the mechanism of pandemic transmission to the agricultural sector in the world and Poland. This article aims to assess the significance of changes in international trade in agri-food commodities conducted by Polish entities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research period covers the years 2017–2021, focusing on the years 2020–2021, the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Such a research period allows comparative analyses during the pandemic and pre-pandemic periods. The following research methods are used in this study: a critical analysis of the literature, the descriptive approach, the comparative method, and verbal logic and descriptive statistical methods. The data used in this article come from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) and cover Poland’s foreign trade turnover according to the International Standard Trade Classification (SITC) used by the United Nations Statistics Department. The COVID-19 pandemic period did not cause a drastic collapse in Polish foreign trade. Short-lived blockages in the flow of goods, which appeared in Q2 2020, resulted in a 14% drop in the value of Polish exports. Already in Q3 2020, foreign trade turnover returned to pre-pandemic levels. In Q2 2020, the value of the exports of agri-food goods decreased by only 3%. For other commodity groups, the export values were 7–40% lower. Agri-food trade proved more resilient to pandemic shocks than trade in non-agricultural sectors. The foreign trade crisis affected the imports of goods more than exports.

Factores que influyen en la internacionalización de la empresa hortícola en cadenas globales de valor

Agri-food trade has evolved from the local to the international level, and this requires companies in the sector to constantly update their skills so they can join global value chains. The purpose of this study is to present the factors that have influenced the in-ternationalization of horticultural smes in these chains. A qualitative approach was used, through structured interviews, by means of a case study. The factors found in-cluded the standards of quality that companies must be able to meet to international-ize, upgrades made to add value to their products, satisfying government and foreign buyers’ requirements, and governance, which varies according to the size of the com-pany. It is concluded that investment in machinery, technology, training, and product diversification has positively boosted the companies’ internationalization and upward mobility.

Reconciling Britain’s agricultural trade policy initiatives with world trade rules: 1960–1975

ABSTRACT Between 1960 and 1972 successive British governments explored, and sometimes pursued, a series of agricultural trade policy initiatives designed to shift the burden of supporting UK farmers from taxpayers to consumers, and to reduce the UK’s agri-food imports by expanding home production. These included a minimum import price scheme for cereals; a Selective Expansion Programme; debate about Agriculture’s Import Saving Role; and 1970 proposals for a fundamental change to farm policy that would apply whether or not the UK joined the European Communities (EC). Prior to EC membership the rules of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), bilateral agreements with a number of countries, and pressure from the UK’s trading partners (particularly the United States) constrained its room for manoeuvre. Consequently, this dimension of farm policy could not safely be left to agriculture ministers and the Treasury, but was one that involved other departments, and prime ministers, as it necessitated detailed international negotiations. Following EC entry, GATT Article XXIV deliberations and the UK’s renegotiation of its terms of entry failed to secure meaningful reform of the common agricultural policy (CAP). The 1975 referendum confirming EC membership meant the UK no longer had an independent agri-food trade policy.

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on International Staple Agrifood Trade Networks.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a growing concern worldwide and poses serious threats to regional and global food security. Using monthly trade data for maize, rice, and wheat from 2016/1 to 2023/12, this paper constructs three international crop trade networks and an aggregate international food trade network. We aim to examine the structural changes following the occurrence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We find significant shifts in the number of edges, average in-degree, density, and efficiency in the third quarter of 2022, particularly in the international wheat trade network. Additionally, we have shown that political reasons have caused more pronounced changes in the trade connections between the economies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia than with Ukraine. This paper could provide insights into the negative impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global food system and encourage a series of effective strategies to mitigate the negative impact of the conflict on global food trade.

Do institutions matter for agri-food imports and exports between China and Africa? A gravity model analysis

This paper aims to study the role of institutional quality on agri-food trade (import and export) between China and 48 African countries during the 2001-2021 period. The gravity model of trade was employed by estimating the Generalised Least Square (GLS) and the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimators, which include zero trade flows for panel data. The main results show that voice and accountability, control of corruption, and the rule of law all enhance agri-food trade flows. While political instability encourages agri-food exports to China. In addition, the economic size of China, the trade cost (distance), and the population of African countries also encourage agri-food trade between China and African economies. Moreover, access to the sea, exchange rate policy, and the economic size of African nations deplete China’s agri-food imports from Africa. We showed the mechanism through which each institutional variable affects China’s agri-food trade flows to African nations.

Rebalancing agri-food trade flows due to Russian import ban: the case of direct neighbors

In recent years, research on trade rebalancing in agri-food supply chains has gained prominence due to trade sanctions, supply chain disruptions, and vulnerabilities exposed by pandemics and conflicts. This study focuses on the recalibration of agri-food trade dynamics, using the 2014 Russian import ban as a case study. The ban significantly altered the structure of agri-food export destinations for affected countries, particularly those sharing a border with Russia (e.g., Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania). Employing a cross-section regression model and structural break tests, we assess the trade rebalancing process. Our findings reveal short-term trade rebalancing effects, primarily observed in product groups not traditionally considered main trade specializations. There is evidence that significant part of the lost trade was redirected to EU28 or EAEU countries and end up in the common trade areas of these countries. Furthermore, we argue that the Russian import ban initiated a long-term structural shift in export patterns for non-traditionally traded banned products, while rebalancing for traditionally traded products was significantly quicker.

Food Sovereignty Towards Rice Sustainability

Malaysia should adhere to the WTO’s policy on agrifood trade liberalization. Agrifood regulations are designed to ensure the protection of farmers and achieve food sovereignty. This research investigates and plots the evolution of agrifood laws that promote food sovereignty and trade liberalization towards rice sustainability. The qualitative study is based on the application of social jurisprudence theory and secondary data. The structure list in the current legislation is mapped to the regulations and standard operations applied in the matrix table. Malaysia’s agrifood regulations are found to reinforce the WTO policy of liberalizing trade for agriculture, which undermines food sovereignty and provides inadequate protection for farmers. The interdependence of supporting sustainable agriculture and empowering small farmers is recognized by SDG2, which aims to address hunger, food security, nutrition, and climate change. The government should provide policies that improve the management of the food system to achieve food sovereignty. A review of the Control of Padi and Rice Act 1994 is necessary for creating new provisions on ‘seed’, which includes a provision on food sovereignty for individuals working in the rice industry. The development of people in agrifood to support their global market can be explained in another provision.

Economic sanctions and agricultural trade

AbstractEconomic sanctions are more popular than ever. But do they affect agricultural trade? Combining two new datasets and capitalizing on the latest developments in the empirical structural gravity literature, we investigate the effects of sanctions on international trade of agricultural products. We find that trade sanctions impede agricultural trade, whereas other sanctions do not show any significant impact. Complete trade sanctions have led to about a 67% decrease in the agricultural trade between the sanctioned and sanctioning countries, or a corresponding tariff equivalent of 25%, and we also obtain significant estimates for partial sanctions. At the industry level, we find substantial heterogeneity depending on the sanctioning and sanctioned countries, the type of sanctions used, and the direction of trade flows. The 2014 sanctions on Russia substantially decreased Russia's agricultural trade, mainly due to reduced trade with the EU but also due to reduced trade with other countries. Although no definitive evidence exists that sanctions alter the actions of governments of receiving countries, this paper provides broad evidence that sanctions hamper agrifood trade and hurt producers, consumers, and real output.

Heterogeneous Impacts of the Korea-Japan Trade Dispute on Bilateral Agri-Food Trade

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide a rigorous quantitative assessment of the heterogeneous impacts of the Korea-Japan trade dispute on bilateral agri-food trade across different product categories. Design/Methodology/Approach - Based on a structural gravity model and a difference-in-differences approach, the paper estimates the effects of the dispute on trade flows in both aggregated and disaggregated HS 2-digit product levels. The analysis utilizes annual bilateral trade data from 2017-2022 and monthly data for 2019. Findings - The findings reveal significant declines in Japanese exports of vegetable products and prepared foodstuffs to Korea, consistent with the theoretical prediction that sectors with higher average consumer animosity would be more negatively affected. However, the results also point to potential trade diversion and substitution effects, as evidenced by the increase in Korean exports of animal/vegetable oils to Japan post-dispute. Research Implications - The findings have important implications in understanding the complex effects of trade disputes on sensitive sectors like agriculture. These emphasize the need to consider sector-specific dynamics and both short-term and long-term effects when assessing the consequences of trade tensions. The study contributes to the literature on the heterogeneous impacts of trade conflicts, and provides insights for evidence-based policymaking in navigating the global trade landscape.

Prioritizing partners and products for the sustainability of the EU’s agri-food trade

Prioritizing partners and products for the sustainability of the EU’s agri-food trade

Is the proliferation of private standards acting as a non-tariff trade barrier in agrifood trade? Evidence from Chilean grape exports

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the impacts that the recent proliferation of private and overlapping standards is having in the trade of agricultural products from developing countries.Design/methodology/approachIn a first stage industry experts in the Chilean fresh fruit trading industry were interviewed to understand the perceived impact that private standards are imposing in the industry. These interviews allowed to identify the market case study, table grapes, the landscape of private standards and their prevalence in different countries. In a second stage, a gravity trade model for trade in table grapes was estimated, with a focus on the more stringent countries identified by experts in the first stage.FindingsWe show evidence that the proliferation of private standards required by large European retailers has diverted trade away from more stringent countries that require more certifications (and into less stringent European markets). We also show that the costs of these additional certifications have been shared by trading partners, via an increase in direct sales, as opposed to consignment (the traditional marketing mode), which is associated with higher prices.Research limitations/implicationsThe impacts of the recent proliferation of private and overlapping standards in international trade needs to be better understood both by the legal and economic literature. While the use of private standards has been growing since the 1990s, there is a recent trend of large European retailers imposing their own and overlapping standards that needs to be better understood to inform policy.Originality/valueWhile there is a thin literature on the impact of private standards on trade, most of this has studied the effects of the now de facto mandatory GlobalGAP certification. However, there is a recent trend by large European retailers of demanding their own private certifications, together with other already existing overlapping private standards. This study describes and analyzes the impacts of this rather new trend.

COMPETITIVENESS OF THE TURKISH AGRI-FOOD SECTOR IN TRADE WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION

The purpose of this study was to assess the competitive position of the Turkish agri-food sector in trade with the European Union. The study focused on agri-food products arranged as per the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS1-24), and relied on data collected in two years, 2010 and2022, retrieved from UNCTAD and Eurostat resources. The authors used the Widodo product mapping scheme to arrange the products. The results provide grounds for concluding that Turkey and the EU witnessed growth in bilateral agri-food trade. Between 2010 and2022, the exports from Turkey to the EU increased by89% whereas imports went up by84%. In the years covered by the study, Turkey had the greatest comparative advantage and the highest degree of export specialization in the following product groups: preparations of vegetables, fruit and nuts (HS20), fish and crustaceans (HS03), vegetables (HS08) and edible fruit and nuts (HS07). Conversely, Turkey showed no comparative advantages in (and was a net importer of): cocoa and cocoa preparations (HS18), cereals (HS10) and meat and edible meat offal (HS02). The mix of products traded can be viewed as rational and consistent with the classical theory of trade. Turkey’s comparative advantages provided a source of a beneficial specialization. In turn, imported products were those in which Turkey is not self-sufficient.

War in Ukraine: Impact on global agri-food trade

The conditions and trends of the global agri-food market are elastic to crises and conflicts involving major market players, which threatens food security by blocking sustainable international trade opportunities due to the destruction of production capacity and value chains, as well as supply channels to consumer countries. The purpose of this study was to investigate the specific features and consequences of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict on world agricultural trade and food security at the national and global levels. The scientific conclusions are the result of the application of economic and statistical (time series, index, and factor analysis) and dialectical (induction and deduction, analysis, and synthesis) methods of scientific cognition. It was found that the universal features of wars include the ability to influence the global economy, create new geopolitical and economic uncertainty, rapidly increase prices for critical resources (energy), and ensure destabilisation of global value chains. As a result, the disruption of sustainable trade flows caused by military conflicts is an important source of changes in the global economy and the situation of individual countries and regions. It was proved that military operations on the territory of Ukraine led to restrictions in agriculture and forced adaptation of agribusiness to the factors of critical vulnerability. There are trends towards a reduction in production and the breakdown of conventional supply chains for agri-food products due to the destruction of the logistics infrastructure, which, together with a reduction in exports of agricultural products and fertilisers from Russia, has led to a rise in world food prices. As a result, the “price” of the Russian-Ukrainian war for the global economy is being formed, with growing hunger and poverty, as well as the environmental footprint of military operations. The practical significance of the findings of this study lies in the possibility of their application in strategic planning and substantiation of the areas of post-war reconstruction of the national economy in general and its agricultural sector specifically, as well as the restoration and strengthening of Ukraine’s role in global food chains and combating hunger

MAIN TRENDS OF THE ROMANIAN AGRI-FOOD TRADE WITH CHINA

Since joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001, China has become an increasingly important player on the world general and agri-food markets. Since 2008, its agri-food trade balance has turned negative and the deficit increased continuously. The present paper explores the main features of the Chinese agri-food trade, and its exports, imports and trade balance with Romania. The results show that although the trade flows between the two countries increased significantly, the growth rate of the imports has been far higher than that of exports, resulting in a huge trade deficit for Romania.

Does Green Food Certification promote agri-food export quality? Evidence from China

The construction of a food certification system plays a vital role in upgrading export quality, which previous studies have largely overlooked. We match China's industry-level data of Green Food Certification with its HS6-digit export data of agri-food products to quantify the impact of Green Food Certification on export quality. We identify the significant and positive effect of Green Food Certification on export quality. The 2SLS estimation based on instrumental variables and a range of robustness checks confirm the validity and robustness of the benchmark conclusions. Further analysis discloses that Green Food Certification improves export quality by raising agricultural production efficiency and brand premiums. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of Green Food Certification varies across regions, notably improving the quality of agri-food products exported to developed regions and regions with high levels of import supervision. Furthermore, among various product types, Green Food Certification significantly improves the export quality of primary products and products vulnerable to non-tariff measures. The above findings could guide the future development of agri-food quality certification systems, potentially leading to a transformation and promotion of the agri-food trade.

The Effect of Maximum Residue Limits on Agri-Food Trade: Evidence from Chinese Exports to the EU

There is debate about whether maximum residue limits (MRLs) for pesticides act as a catalyst or barrier to trade. By constructing a trade model based on heterogeneous firm quality and productivity, we show that MRLs’ net effects on total export value, the number of exporting firms, and the average export value per firm depend on the interplay between the effect on import demand and that on variable and fixed compliance costs. We employ firm-level transaction data for agri-food products exported from China to the European Union (EU). We use heterogeneity indices that combine the number and level of MRLs to measure MRL stringency between China and the EU; a Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimator with fixed effects is used for estimation. We find that stricter MRLs, whether imposed by China or the EU, promote China’s agri-food exports to the EU. However, such promotion effects are heterogeneous across agri-food-exporting firms. In China, updates to MRL standards improve agri-food-exporting firms’ ability to comply with stricter MRLs. Public investment and services help reduce compliance costs. Our findings provide new evidence that MRLs are not new non-tariff measures adopted to replace reduced import tariffs.

Portuguese Agrifood Sector Resilience: An Analysis Using Structural Breaks Applied to International Trade

In the last two decades, Portugal suffered the effects of two global crises, the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the Common Agriculture Policy reforms. These crises had a great impact on the Portuguese economy, but it is completely unclear how they affected the dynamics of the Portuguese agrifood sector. This study’s objective is to analyze the resilience of this sector to European and global socks, testing the effects on international trade. Secondary data from the Portuguese Statistics Institute were used for the exports and imports trade series of animal and vegetable products and food industries from 2000 to 2020. The methodology was based on the structural xtbreak model, stability analysis, and tests for structural breaks. Some volatility was observed in the trade series, particularly in imports, without consistency among years, trade sectors, or imports versus exports trade. In the case of exports, one or two structural breaks in the different sectors occurred in different years. The most relevant dynamics occurred after the sovereign debt crisis. It was concluded that CAP reforms and global crises seem to not have caused new relevant dynamics in the Portuguese international agrifood trade. This revealed the resilience of the sector to external shocks.