Aggregate Turnout Research Articles

All-mail voting in Colorado increases turnout and reduces turnout inequality

The COVID-19 crisis has generated interest in all-mail voting (AMV) as a potential policy solution for avoiding in-person elections. However, the quality of AMV implementation has varied greatly across states, leading to mixed results in previous research. We exploit the understudied 2014 implementation of AMV in Colorado to estimate the effect on turnout for all registered voters, along with age, racial, education, income and wealth, and occupational subgroups. Using large voter file data and a difference-in-differences design within individuals, we find a positive overall turnout effect of approximately 8 percentage points—translating into an additional 900,000 ballots being cast between 2014 and 2018. Effects are significantly larger among lower-propensity voting groups, such as young people, blue-collar workers, voters with less educational attainment, and voters of color. The results suggest that researchers and policymakers should look to Colorado's AMV approach as an effective model for boosting aggregate turnout and reducing voting disparities across subgroups.

UK Aggregate Turnout is Mismeasured

UK Aggregate Turnout is Mismeasured

Will Concurrent Elections Reshape the Electorate?

In 2015, Governor Jerry Brown signed the California Voter Participation Rights Act (SB 415) into law. As its title suggests, the bill aimed to increase turnout in local elections by forcing all California jurisdictions to hold elections concurrently with statewide elections (in June or November of even years). Turnout in local elections is significantly lower than national turnout, averaging only 20% by some estimates (Alford and Lee 1968, Wood 2002, Hajnal and Lewis 2003, Caren 2007, Hajnal 2009). Scholars have found that election timing is the most important predictor of differences in aggregate turnout rates across cities (Alford and Lee 1968, Anzia 2014, Anzia 2011, Hajnal and Trounstine 2005). Hajnal and Lewis find that city elections that coincide with presidential elections are associated with a turnout of registered voters 36 percentage points higher than turnout in cities that do not hold elections that coincide with the presidential election (2001, 656). Caren finds that cities holding elections concurrent with the presidential election increase voter turnout by 27% compared to cities that do not (2007, 41). The logic behind SB 415 is that moving local elections to coincide with national elections will improve electoral participation.

Correlates of district-level turnout in Vienna: What role does electoral exclusion play?

With an increasing share of voting-age residents without Austrian citizenship, Vienna is a striking example of a boundary problem of electoral participation. Without Austrian citizenship comes an exclusion from electoral rights at national, regional and, for some, also at European elections. The paper examines turnout rates and their socio-demographic covariates for 11 elections on the aggregate level of districts in Vienna, Austria, from 2004 to 2019. The analysis shows that aggregate turnout is statistically associated with socio-economic district characteristics, diversity within the electorate and the proportion of individuals not eligible to vote. To conclude, the paper discusses possible mechanisms behind the correlation of electoral exclusion and turnout and provides perspectives for further empirical tests of such mechanisms.

A disproportionate burden: strict voter identification laws and minority turnout

ABSTRACT Critics of the recent proliferation of strict photo identification laws claim these laws impose a disproportionate burden on racial minorities. Yet, empirical studies of the impact of these laws on minority turnout have reached decidedly mixed results. State and federal courts have responded by offering mixed opinions about the legality of these laws. We offer a more rigorous test of these laws by focusing on more recent elections, by relying on official turnout data rather than surveys, and by employing a more sophisticated research design that assesses change over time using a difference-in-difference approach. Our analysis uses aggregate county turnout data from 2012 to 2016 and finds that the gap in turnout between more racially diverse and less racially diverse counties grew more in states enacting new strict photo ID laws than it did elsewhere. This analysis provides additional empirical evidence that strict voter ID laws appear to discriminate.

Why vote when you cannot choose? EU intervention and political participation in times of constraint

This article analyses how economic intervention affects individuals’ political behaviour by assessing the impact of intervention on aggregate and individual turnout. The intervention of the European Union in a selection of member states is viewed as having negative consequences for democratic choice, reducing the ability of voters to select between distinct policy alternatives, resulting in the absence of the primary benefit of voting: choice. It is argued that when voters are faced with electoral choices without the ability to shape policy alternatives, they are less likely to vote. Moreover, the negative effect of intervention is found to be conditioned by both individuals’ level of education and ideological identification. Voters on the centre and the left who feel abandoned by left-leaning parties, who have prioritised being responsible to their European paymasters, are significantly more likely to abstain when exposed to intervention. Empirical support for the argument is found via the analysis of aggregate turnout as well as individual level data from the European Social Survey from across fifteen Western European states.

Conformity and Individuals\u2019 Response to Information About Aggregate Turnout

How do voters react to information about aggregate turnout? Do high turnout levels mobilize or discourage citizens to vote? We argue that it depends on individuals’ degree of conformity. We argue that in addition to the classic calculus of voting, conformist voters have an added incentive to ‘follow the pack’ and vote when turnout is high while abstain when turnout is low. We conduct two separate experiments, the first a survey experiment with a representative sample of the UK population and the second a lab experiment in Canada. Both studies confirm our hypothesis. These findings highlight the importance of taking individuals’ level of conformity into account when explaining their decision to vote or abstain.

Local autonomy and national–local turnout gap: Higher stakes, higher turnout?

ABSTRACT This paper offers a cross-national comparison of the aggregate turnout rates in local elections across 21 European countries between 1990 and 2014. The study confirms that the aggregate turnout in local elections is almost always lower than the turnout in the preceding parliamentary election; yet, the national–local turnout gap varies considerably across European countries. The level of local autonomy, i.e. the amount of power and discretion available at the local level turned out to be only a weak explanation of this participation gap. The Local Autonomy Index (LAI) had a positive effect on the local voter turnout, which is in line with the ‘less at stake’ argument of the second-order elections theory, yet the magnitude of this effect is rather small. The synchronization of electoral cycles plays a much more significant role in explaining the aggregate local voter turnout.

Voter Identification Requirements and Aggregate Turnout in the U.S.: How Campaigns Offset the Costs of Turning Out When Voting Is Made More Difficult

Abstract In spite of the attention that has been lavished upon the subject in recent years, scholars have found little evidence demonstrating that voter identification laws have a substantial effec...

The new electoral power brokers: macro and micro level effects of ‘born-free’ South Africans on voter turnout

ABSTRACTThe emergence of a born-free South African generation holds significant implications for voter turnout. At the macro level, the youth bulge has changed aggregate turnout patterns, supporting Franklin’s [(2004). Voter turnout and the dynamics of electoral competition in established democracies since 1945. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press] argument that demographics shifts produce changes in aggregate political behaviour even when individuals do not change their behaviour. At the micro level, born-free South Africans exhibit attitudinal and cognitive differences from their older, partisan-led counterparts when deciding to vote, lending some support to Dalton’s [(1984). Cognitive mobilization and partisan dealignment in advanced industrial democracies. The Journal of Politics, 46(1), 264–284] cognitive mobilisation thesis.

Reducing Turnout Misreporting in Online Surveys

Assessing individual-level theories of electoral participation requires survey-based measures of turnout. Yet, due to a combination of sampling problems and respondent misreporting, postelection surveys routinely overestimate turnout, often by large margins. Using an online survey experiment fielded after the 2015 British general election, we implement three alternative survey questions aimed at correcting for turnout misreporting and test them against a standard direct turnout question used in postelection studies. Comparing estimated to actual turnout rates, we find that while all question designs overestimate aggregate turnout, the item-count technique alleviates the misreporting problem substantially, whereas a direct turnout question with additional face-saving options and a crosswise model design help little or not at all. Also, regression models of turnout estimated using the item-count measure yield substantively similar inferences regarding the correlates of electoral participation to models estimated using “gold-standard” validated vote measures. These findings stand in contrast to those suggesting that item-count techniques do not help with misreporting in an online setting and are particularly relevant given the increasing use of online surveys in election studies.

Political Advertising and Election Results*

We study the persuasive effects of political advertising. Our empirical strategy exploits FCC regulations that result in plausibly exogenous variation in the number of impressions across the borders of neighboring counties. Applying this approach to detailed data on television advertisement broadcasts and viewership patterns during the 2004–12 presidential campaigns, our results indicate that total political advertising has almost no impact on aggregate turnout. By contrast, we find a positive and economically meaningful effect of advertising on candidates’ vote shares. Taken at face value, our estimates imply that a one standard deviation increase in the partisan difference in advertising raises the partisan difference in vote shares by about 0.5 percentage points. Evidence from a regression discontinuity design suggests that advertising affects election results by altering the partisan composition of the electorate.

Early voting in Australia: the costs and benefits of convenience

ABSTRACTPre-election day voting increases the opportunities for citizens to vote in an election. This paper asks who votes before election day in Australia and whether early voters and election day voters decide their vote differently. In Australia’s compulsory voting system early voting lowers the costs of voting for citizens who would otherwise be compelled to vote on a prescribed day. We may therefore expect that in a compulsory system, early voting has the effect of bringing forward some voter turnout, while aggregate turnout is unaffected. Using 2016 Australian Election Study data, we find that early voters do not appear to suffer time constraints distinguishing them from election day voters: they are no more likely to have caring responsibilities nor to work in time-inflexible occupations. Early voters tend to be older than election day voters, and are more likely to strongly dislike the leader of their non- preferred party. However, feelings towards the parties generally and the state of the economy are not related to early voting. This research suggests that of expanding the voting period in compulsory systems provides greater voter convenience but reduces the capacity of campaign promises and events to affect vote choice.

Legislative Term Limits and Voter Turnout

AbstractAccording to reformers, legislative term limits should increase voter turnout by enhancing electoral competitiveness for legislative seats. However, this claim has been largely untested. The only existing study of the effect of legislative term limits on voter turnout, to date, finds that turnout in California did not increase after the imposition of term limits and may have decreased turnout. Yet, it is unclear whether this result generalizes to other states. This study employs a comparative state analysis of both aggregate turnout and district-level turnout rates in state legislative elections. We find that term limits significantly increase voting rates in state legislative elections.

By ground or by air? Voter mobilization during the United States’ 2008 presidential campaign

ABSTRACTAggregate studies find no effect of campaign advertising on voter turnout in the United States, thereby calling into question experimental and survey-based studies that produce strong turnout effects. In revisiting the debate over the impact of campaign ads, this paper examines the effects of both TV campaign advertising and campaign field offices on aggregate voter turnout during the 2008 US presidential election campaign. In contrast to previous studies, our analysis finds that both campaign field offices and campaign advertising help to stimulate turnout, although the effect of campaign field offices is more robust to alternative model specifications. We also find that only Obama's field offices had any discernible impact on aggregate voter turnout, thereby reinforcing the narrative that the Obama campaign had a superior ground game in 2008.

District Voter Turnout and Dyadic Representation in Congress

ABSTRACTOne of the most important tools by which citizens can influence their elected officials' behavior is through voting—the electoral connection. Previous studies demonstrate that the opinions of voters are better represented than the opinions of nonvoters within an electoral jurisdiction, but we do not know whether jurisdictions with higher levels of aggregate voter turnout are better represented by their elected officials compared to those with lower levels of turnout. Using data compiled across five congressional sessions (2003–2013), this article investigates whether congressional districts with higher voter turnout are better represented by their member of Congress (MC). We find evidence that district voter turnout positively conditions the relationship between district opinion and MC voting behavior even after accounting for the possible effects of electoral competition and district income and racial demographics. In addition, we uncover evidence that partisan differences exist in this conditioning effect such that higher voter turnout enhances roll call voting responsiveness among Democratic MCs but not among Republican MCs. These findings suggest that congressional districts as a whole benefit from a political responsiveness standpoint when more of their constituents turn out to vote and contribute to literatures on political representation, political participation, democratic accountability, and the U.S. Congress.

How Do Female Candidates Affect Voter Turnout? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach

How does the presence of a woman on the ballot impact election outcomes, aggregate turnout, and the voting behavior of particular groups of voters? Using a regression discontinuity approach, I exploit quasi-random variation in the presence of a female candidate in US House elections stemming from narrowly won primary elections between candidates of different genders. I find that the presence of a female candidate leads to lower overall turnout, but otherwise has no bearing on the outcome of the election. The change in turnout is driven entirely by male voters, which falls uniformly for (male) voters of both parties.

Political Advertising and Election Outcomes

We implement a new approach for estimating the persuasive effects of political advertising. Our empirical strategy exploits FCC regulations that result in plausibly exogenous variation in the number of impressions across the borders of neighboring counties. Applying this approach to uniquely detailed data on television advertisement broadcasts and viewership patterns during the 2004 and 2008 presidential campaigns, our results indicate that total political advertising has virtually no impact on aggregate turnout. The point estimates are precise enough to rule out even moderately sized effects. By contrast, we find a positive and economically meaningful effect of advertising on candidates’ vote shares. Evidence from a regression discontinuity design with millions of observations suggests that advertising’s impact on elections is largely due to compositional changes of the electorate.

Political Advertising and Election Outcomes

We study the persuasive eects of political advertising. Our empirical strategy ex- ploits FCC regulations that result in plausibly exogenous variation in the number of impressions across the borders of neighboring counties. Applying this approach to uniquely detailed data on television advertisement broadcasts and viewership patterns during the 2004 and 2008 presidential campaigns, our results indicate that total political advertising has virtually no impact on aggregate turnout. The point estimates are precise enough to rule out even moderately sized eects. By contrast, wend a positive and economically meaningful eect of advertising on candidates' vote shares. Evidence from a regression discontinuity design with millions of ob- servations suggests that advertising aects election results by altering the partisan composition of the electorate.

To vote or to abstain? An experimental test of rational calculus in first past the post and PR elections

We test the rational choice model of turnout in the lab. We performed laboratory experiments in which participants had to decide whether to vote or not in a number of first past the post and proportional representation elections. We test the predictions of rational choice theory from three different angles:(i) First, we compare aggregate turnout with the Nash equilibrium predictions.(ii) Second, we compare individual decisions with those derived from a rational calculus and count the number of decisions which are consistent with the rational recommendation, and.(iii) Third, we determine, still at the individual level, whether, at the margin, people are more likely to vote as the expected payoff increases.The overwhelming thrust of the evidence is inconsistent with the rational calculus paradigm.