Aggregate National Level Research Articles

P-292 It is feasible to carry out a large-scale multi-national Assisted Reproductive Technology Real World Data (RWD) collection prospectively, encompassing collected patient and treatment cycle information

Abstract Study question Is it feasible to carry out a large-scale multi-national Assisted Reproductive Technology Real World Data (RWD) collection prospectively, encompassing collected patient and treatment cycle information? Summary answer The creation of an international database collecting RWD is feasible. The quality and quantity of the data allow them to be used for research purposes. What is known already Real World Evidence (RWE) may help to answer clinical research questions that are relevant to a broad population of patients. For 40 years, Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) treatment cycle data have been collected in national registries. The aggregated national data are further collated on an international level. These data are useful for describing secular trends in ART utilization and associated outcomes. However, registries often fall short in providing patient-level and treatment-cycle-level information for data collation and analysis. Furthermore, national registries may restrict access of raw data for open research, for political, infrastructural, or legal reasons. Study design, size, duration In a first phase, the OPERA database (Observational retrospective ProjEct for a Research database for ART procedures) included data from cycles recorded between January 2016 and December 2020 in eighteen clinics, providing a robust sample size for Real World Data analyses. Fondazione per la Ricerca Ospedale di Bergamo (FROM), together with expert clinicians in the ART field, promoted the OPERA project with the financial support from two pharmaceutical companies (Merck KGaA, IBSA SA). Participants/materials, setting, methods The Eighteen clinics located in Germany and Italy joining the OPERA data collection, have proven expertise in ART procedures and use MedITEX® DB. The study protocol was reviewed by the competent Ethic Committees and Data Protection Officers. Among the outcomes collected were the mean number of cycles, the pregnancy and birth rate per Embryo Transfer, and the pregnancy and birth rates as a function of female age. The first extraction was scheduled for December 2022. Main results and the role of chance Around 75,000 ART cycles were collected from the first ten participating centers. Among the around 45,000 cycles that have available fertilization information , 11,553 (25.7%) were the In-Vitro Fertilization treatments (IVF), 31,202 (69.3%) Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection treatments (ICSI), and 2,282 (5.1%) a combination of the two techniques. Of the adopted stimulation protocols, 38.43% (10,538) of the total were with variable antagonists, 31.27% (8,574) were with a single antagonist, 24.31% (6,665) were with a long agonist, 5.51% (1,511) were with a short agonist, and 0.35% (96) were with fixed antagonists. The average number of oocytes retrieved is 11.28, with a median of 10.0. The average number of 2 Pronuclear Oocytes (2PN) obtained is 3.7, with a median of 3.0. Moreover, the average number of 8 cell embryos at day 3 is 2.0, with a median of 2.0. It was also recorded the rate of unsuccessful cycles with no oocytes retrieved (4.8%). Among the cycles collected, 2.9% of the total were from frozen oocytes. Most of the ET (40.0%) were performed 5 days after the oocyte retrieval. Limitations, reasons for caution Amassing ART cycle information does not compensate for the well-known insufficiencies of primary data quality, of information on confounders and of access to patient level data. Moreover, the technical risk of this project is the potential loss of participant confidentiality, mitigated through a full anonymization. Wider implications of the findings The OPERA project may facilitate the transition of ART surveillance from a national aggregate level to a large-scale individual patient and treatment cycle level. Furthermore, as an evolutionary path, the OPERA project may help building large and longitudinal databases, suitable for appropriate epidemiological research in ART. Trial registration number not applicable

Sustainable Recovery? Deciphering Hungary’s Residential Property Market before the Pandemic

This paper develops some analytical perspectives for a proper assessment of the dynamics observed on the Hungarian residential property market over the last decade. These dynamics are examined in comparison to official policy objectives. On the one hand, sustainable development and social balance were particularly urgent issues after the last financial crisis. On the other, the residential property market was officially instrumentalised to achieve them. We examined real estate market processes using data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office and found a change in investment motives and in the main groups of actors dominant in the market, and we also examined the role of foreign investment. At the aggregate national level, the past decade looks like a process of recovery. Nonetheless, the factors relevant for the observable dynamics do not seem to correspond to the goals also formulated in the new constitution, but rather document the investment fever of certain groups.

Global improvements in Years of Good Life since 1950

Human well-being at the national aggregate level is typically measured by GDP per capita, life expectancy or a composite index such as the HDI. A more recent alternative is the Years of Good Life (YoGL) indicator presented by Lutz et al. (2018; 2021). YoGL represents a refinement of life expectancy in which only those person-years in a life table are counted that are spent free from material (1), physical (2) or cognitive limitations (3), while being subjectively perceived as satisfying (4). In this article, we present the reconstruction of YoGL to 1950 for 140 countries. Since life expectancy – as reported by the UN World Population Prospects in fiveyearly steps – forms the basis of our reconstruction, the presented dataset is also available on a five-yearly basis. In addition, like life expectancy, YoGL can be flexibly calculated for different sub-populations. Hence, we present separate YoGL estimates for women and men. Due to a lack of data, only the material dimension can be reconstructed based directly on empirical inputs since 1950. The remaining dimensions are modelled based on information from the more recent past.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on Indonesia’s five main horticulture commodities

Global climate change has an enormous impact on agriculture, including horticultural commodities. Banana, oranges, shallot, chilies, and potatoes are among the main horticulture commodities for Indonesian. This study employed a multimarket model of partial equilibrium analysis to investigate the impact of global and environmental climate change on those Indonesia’s five horticulture commodities 2019-2030. The study appraised the impact of climate change by looking at changes in the production and consumption in the national and household level, and net trade at national level. The study revealed that all scenarios show negative impact on national aggregate level of productions and consumptions, however those scenarios can be lower or higher at regional and household levels under climate change compared to a no-climate change scenario in the short and medium term. Import will increase, and all commodities will be as net imported. As an implication, types and characteristics of commodity and regions and households should be strongly considered in research, extension, and development program with improving adaptation and mitigation to climate change. With its unique characteristics, more comprehensive studies for these commodities are recommended. Awareness of the impact of climate change, horticulture subsector needs to be treated in a consistent, comprehensive, and systematic ways.

Effects of Carbon Pricing and Other Climate Policies on CO <sub>2</sub> Emissions

We provide ex-post empirical analysis of the effects of climate policies on carbon dioxide emissions at the aggregate national level. Our results are based on a comprehensive database of 121 countries. As climate policies we examine carbon taxes and emissions trading systems (ETS), as well as the overall stringency of climate policies. We use dynamic panel regressions, controlling for macroeconomic factors such as economic development, GDP growth, urbanisation, as well as the energy mix. We find that higher carbon taxes and prices of permits in ETS reduce carbon emissions. An increase in carbon taxes by $10 per ton of CO2 reduces CO2 emissions per capita by 1.3% in the short run and by 4.6% in the long run.

Impact of Government Expenditure on Agricultural Productivity in South Africa

Government expenditure has been considered to be having an extent of impact on economic performance at both sectoral level and aggregate national level. Evidence from literature, however shows that this notion has not been generally accepted across countries and sectors. Considering the significance of agriculture in an economy most especially in Africa, and the consequent role of government, this study examines the impact of government expenditure on agricultural productivity in South Africa using annual time series data from 1983 to 2016. It is shown that there exists a long-run relationship between government expenditure on agriculture and agricultural productivity, and a positive significant effect only to be expected in the long-run. The finding underscores the non-negotiable role of the South African government funding of agricultural sector in an era of climate change and a highly commercialized agricultural system. Furthermore, considering the low and declining pattern of government expenditure in the sector in South Africa, the desired productivity growth impact will only be experienced in the long-run all things being equal. Improving government funding in the sector could accelerate the desired agricultural productivity in the short-term.

Assessing Money Laundering Risk across Regions. An Application in Italy

Most money laundering (ML) risk assessments carried out in Europe and abroad are qualitative analyses at national aggregate level. To complement current knowledge, this paper – based on the findings of the European co-funded project IARM (Identifying and Assessing the Risk of Money laundering in Europe - www.transcrime.it/iarm ) – proposes a new quantitative methodology to measure ML risk across regions in a country and tests it on the 110 Italian provinces. In particular, it develops a composite indicator of ML risk, which combines a variety of risk factors (classified as threats and vulnerabilities), such as organised crime, tax evasion, cash-intensiveness and opacity of business structure. The application of the methodology to Italy reveals that the areas with the highest (relative) ML risk are in the south of the country, in particular Calabria, with some exceptions in the centre (e.g. province of Prato) and in the north (e.g. Imperia). The developed risk indicator can support policy-makers and investigators in allocating anti-money laundering (AML) resources more effectively, but it can also be helpful for obliged entities such as banks and professionals to improve their “risk based” customer due diligence activities.

Trends in adolescent first births in five countries in Latin America and the Caribbean: disaggregated data from demographic and health surveys

BackgroundAdolescents in the Latin American and Caribbean region continue to experience poor reproductive health outcomes, including high rates of first birth before the age of 20 years. Aggregate national level data fails to identify groups where progress is particularly poor. This paper explores how trends in adolescent births have changed over time in five countries (Bolivia, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Peru) using data disaggregated by adolescent age group, wealth and urban / rural residence.MethodsThe study draws on Demographic and Health Survey data from five countries where three surveys are available since 1990, with the most recent after 2006. It examines trends in adolescent births by wealth status and urban/rural residence.ResultsThere has been little progress in reducing adolescent first births over the last two decades in these countries. Adolescent first births continue to be more common among the poorest and rural residents, and births among the youngest age-group (< 16 years) are particularly concentrated among these populations.ConclusionAdolescent first births continue to be a major issue in these five countries, including amongst the youngest group (< 16 years), although the contexts in which it is occurring are changing over time. Efforts are needed to expand sexual education and services for adolescents and young people, as well as introduce and enforce legislation to provide effective protection from abuse or exploitation. Greater disaggregation of adolescent fertility data is needed if we are to measure progress towards the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals to “leave no-one behind”.

Total Factor Productivity of the Japanese Rice Industry

We calculate partial factor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP) indices for rice production using panel data across 42 Japanese prefectures from 1996 to 2006, and perform panel unit root tests of TFP convergence across prefectures. We find that during this period, the partial factor productivity growth rates for capital, land and materials stagnated at the aggregate national level, as did the TFP growth rate, despite a large increase in labor productivity. We also identify evidence of a convergence in TFP across Japanese prefectures.

Long-term yield trends of insect-pollinated crops vary regionally and are linked to neonicotinoid use, landscape complexity, and availability of pollinators

Time series data on crop yields for two main wind-pollinated crops (barley and wheat) and for three crops benefitting from insect pollination (turnip rapeseed, caraway, and black currant), were compiled from official agricultural statistics. In Finland, these statistics are available at aggregate national level, and at the level of each of the 15 provinces of the country. Yields of wind-pollinated crops have steadily increased in Finland, while yields of insect-pollinated crops have been highly variable. The largest crop benefitting from insect pollination is turnip rapeseed, which shows first a clear tendency to increased yields from 1980 to 1993, after which there has been a continuous decline in yields at the national average level. Regionally, the trends in turnip rapeseed yield show large variation, so that in six provinces of Finland, the trend has been significantly decreasing; in five provinces, there has been no significant trend; and in two provinces, there has been a significant linear increase in yields. Yield trends in the two other insect-pollinated crops, caraway and black currants, show similar trend variations. However, at the national average level, caraway yields show no significant trend, while black currant yields have increased during the past 6 years. The possible impact on the trends of insect-pollinated crops of three explanatory variables was analyzed. Significant linear correlation was found between the yield trends (slope of the trends) in rapeseed, and the extent of using neonicotinoid seed dressing in the provinces; the magnitude of yield decline in turnip rapeseed increased, as the use of neonicotinoid seed dressing increased. Similar significant linear correlation was found for the magnitude of yield decline in turnip rapeseed and the complexity of the agricultural landscape in each province; yield trend changed from negative to positive as the proportion of agricultural land of the total terrestrial land area declined from 28% to below 10%. The availability of honey bee colonies with respect to the growing area of crops benefitting from insect pollination also had a linear, significant impact on turnip rapeseed yield trends: yields tended to decline in provinces, where the supply of managed pollinators with respect to demand was low, but tended to increase in provinces, where the number of honey bee colonies were over 30% of the estimated demand. As neither the landscape complexity (proportion of arable land of total terrestrial land area), nor the number of honey bee colonies for pollination have changed significantly over the past 10–20 years, these factors cannot explain the observed differences in the yield trends of the examined insect-pollinated crops. It appears that only the uptake of neonicotinoid insecticide seed dressing about 15 years ago can explain the crop yield declines in several provinces, and at the national level for turnip rapeseed, most likely via disruption of pollination services by wild pollinators.

Net metering and market feedback loops: Exploring the impact of retail rate design on distributed PV deployment

The substantial increase in deployment of customer-sited solar photovoltaics (PV) in the United States has been driven by a combination of steeply declining costs, financing innovations, and supportive policies. Among those supportive policies is net metering, which in most states effectively allows customers to receive compensation for distributed PV generation at the full retail electricity price. The current design of retail electricity rates and the presence of net metering have elicited concerns that the possible under-recovery of fixed utility costs from PV system owners may lead to a feedback loop of increasing retail prices that accelerate PV adoption and further rate increases. However, a separate and opposing feedback loop could offset this effect: increased PV deployment may lead to a shift in the timing of peak-period electricity prices that could reduce the bill savings received under net metering where time-varying retail electricity rates are used, thereby dampening further PV adoption. In this paper, we examine the impacts of these two competing feedback dynamics on U.S. distributed PV deployment through 2050 for both residential and commercial customers, across states. Our results indicate that, at the aggregate national level, the two feedback effects nearly offset one another and therefore produce a modest net effect, although their magnitude and direction vary by customer segment and by state. We also model aggregate PV deployment trends under various rate designs and net-metering rules, accounting for feedback dynamics. Our results demonstrate that future adoption of distributed PV is highly sensitive to retail rate structures. Whereas flat, time-invariant rates with net metering lead to higher aggregate national deployment levels than the current mix of rate structures (+5% in 2050), rate structures with higher monthly fixed customer charges or PV compensation at levels lower than the full retail rate can dramatically erode aggregate customer adoption of PV (from −14% to −61%, depending on the design). Moving towards time-varying rates, on the other hand, accelerates near- and medium-term deployment (through 2030) but slows adoption in the longer term (−22% in 2050).

Forest Tenure and Sustainable Forest Management

We reviewed the principles and key literature related to forest tenure and sustainable forest management, and then examined the status of sustainable forestry and land ownership at the aggregate national level for major forested countries. The institutional design principles suggested by Ostrom are well accepted for applications to public, communal, and private lands. The analyses of countries as a whole suggest that problems of forest land loss and sustainable forest management are related to the amount of public lands owned, as well as the difference between developed and developing countries. Developed countries have largely achieved a stable level of land use and resource extraction after centuries of exploitation of forests and natural resources. Many developed countries do have greater amounts of private forest land than developing countries, which have occurred as the countries transfer lands to private owners in the course of development. Public lands and management approaches require diligence, but can be developed to meet the design criteria suggested by tenure rights theorists. Private or communal ownership is often considered superior, but also must meet the criteria suggested above in order to foster sustainable forest management in poor countries.

Risk Preferences of Australian Households: A Panel Study

Using household panel data for Australia sourced from HILDA, we explore how household risk preferences in relation to portfolio holdings differ across wealth ranges and in relation to various household sociodemographic characteristics across the nation. Our measure of risk is based on the proportion of variance of the optimal household portfolio rather than the proportion of risky assets in the portfolio. Based on this measure, we estimate the coefficients of relative risk aversion for investors in various wealth ranges. In contrast to most studies, we find evidence of very high risk aversion amongst the majority of households. However, this is heavily concentrated amongst less wealthy households. We apply a first differences model across three survey waves spanning 2002 to 2010, and focus on the aggregate national level. We find that risk tolerance increases significantly with household wealth, the relationship is both statistically and economically significant. Liquidity contraints in the form of rental payments were found to diminish household appetite for risk. However, risk tolerance is positively associated with mortgage payments.

Losses on Dutch residential mortgage insurances

Purpose– This paper aims to study the data on losses on mortgage insurance in the Dutch housing market to find the key drivers of the probability of loss. In 2013, 25 per cent of all Dutch homeowners were “under water”: selling the property will not cover the outstanding mortgage debt. The double-trigger theory predicts that being under water is a necessary but not sufficient condition to predict mortgage default. A loss for the mortgage insurer is the result of a default where the proceedings of sale and the accumulated savings for postponed repayment of the principal associated to the loan are not sufficient to repay the loan.Design/methodology/approach– For this study, the authors use a data set on losses on mortgage insurance at a national aggregate level covering the period from 1976 to 2012. They apply a discrete time hazard model with calendar time- and duration-varying covariates to analyze the relationship between year of issue of the insurance, duration, equity, unfortunate events like unemployment and divorce and affordability measures to identify the main drivers of the probability of loss.Findings– Although the number of losses increases over time, the number of losses relative to the active insurance is still low, despite the fact that the Dutch housing market is the world’s most strongly leveraged housing market. On average, the peak in loss probability lies around a duration of four years. The average loss probability is virtually zero for durations larger than 10 years. Mortgages initiated just prior to the beginning of the financial crisis have an increased loss probability. The most important drivers of the loss probability are home equity, unemployment and divorce. Affordability measures are less important.Research limitations/implications– Mortgage insurance is available for the lower end of the market only and is intended to decrease the impact of risk selection by banks. The analysis is based on aggregate data; no information on individual households, like initial loan-to-value and price-to-income ratios; current home equity; and unfortunate events, like unemployment and divorce, is available. The research uses averages of these variables per calendar year and/or duration. Information on repayments of insured mortgages is missing.Originality/value– This paper is the first to describe the main drivers of losses on insured mortgages in The Netherlands by using loss data covering two housing market crises, one in the early 1980s and the current crisis that started in 2008. Much has changed between the two crises. For instance, prices have risen steeply as has household indebtedness. Furthermore, alternative mortgage products have increased in popularity. Focusing a study on the drivers of mortgage losses exclusively on the current crisis could therefore be biased, given the time-specific circumstances on the housing market.

An Exploratory Study to Understand the Scope of Privately Managed Elementary Schools in India

Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 This study attempted to understand if at the national aggregate level Indian households’ preferences for their children’s school level education were shifting from Government to privately managed schools and whether such privatised schooling was scalable for mass education required for accelerated diffusion of elementary education across the country. Based on time series data on the numbers of schools and their enrolments over the period from 1993-94 to 2007-08, the study found both the number of schools and their enrolments increased abruptly around year 2000-01 when mission mode programme of “Sarva Shikhsa Abhiyan” was launched, indicating a change in environment and strong supply side impact On the growth of student enrolments in elementary schools. Analysis of student enrolments in Government and in privately managed schools indicated growing households’ preferences for privately managed schools. However, though in terms of households’ choices, demands for privately managed schools were growing yet for faster diffusion of elementary education across the country, privately managed elementary schools did not turn out a good substitute to low cost Government managed schools. At the total national aggregate level the market for elementary education showed the prospects of high growth with simultaneous presence of a collective learning environment for the population and a low private cost based learning system for the individual at household level. It appears faster progress towards raising the enrolment ratio of Indian children in elementary schools which has been abysmally low for so many years, could be achieved by adopting more innovative approach towards their finance and governance. /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;}

Macro drivers of Australian housing affordability, 1985-2010

Purpose – Model the drivers of Australian housing affordability and forecast equilibrium affordability. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Uses autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to model housing affordability measured by the Housing Industry Association's Housing Affordability Index (HAI) and the housing price-earnings multiplier (HPE). Six sets of explanatory variables, including housing finance, housing construction activity and costs, economic growth, population, alternative investments and taxation. Findings – Primary long-run drivers are housing finance, dwelling approvals and financial assets. Economic and population growth only have a short-run influence, while housing taxation has limited impact in long run. Forecasts indicate long-run HAI equilibrium values of 109 (above the historical minimum of 107) and a HPE of seven (below the recent historical maximum of 8.2). Research limitations/implications – Reduced form model encompassing both demand and supply factors involves complicated interpretation given direct and indirect effects on affordability. Analysis at national level ignores regional impacts that may also affect housing affordability. Practical implications – The impact of the low rate of new dwelling approvals (public and private sector in the long run and public sector in the short run) points to a persistent structural gap between the demand and supply of housing. Strong economic and population growth often blamed for the worsening of housing affordability, at least in the 2000s, has no impact at the aggregate national level. Originality/value – Only known paper to provide quantitative estimates of macro drivers of Australian housing affordability over a long period using alternative measures of relative housing affordability.

Impact of the global crisis on spatial disparities in Russia

AbstractThe global crisis has hit regions within Russia to variable degrees because of great differences in regional economy patterns, which might have changed inter‐regional disparities observed at the aggregate national level. This paper focuses on two of them, related to population's welfare, namely, inter‐regional inequality in real incomes and integration of regional goods markets, and seeks an answer to the question of whether the global crisis has had a persistent effect on these. Results obtained suggest that the answer is generally negative.

The Prospects for Future Levels of Car Access and Use

This paper aims to build on similarities and differences in empirical findings and analytical approaches in papers in a special issue of the Transport Reviews journal on peak car. These differences are encapsulated in a new exploratory tool, which gives transparent future scenarios, at the aggregate national level. The model is based on age cohorts, with some degree of behavioural inertia, as the means of incorporating the most frequently noted age-related feature of the new trends. This is modified by different readings of the differential effects of population growth and location, immigration, and policy effects. Account is also taken of different assessments of the future track of Western Economies and of the impacts that economic factors have on travel behaviour, this being one of the core distinctions between peak car research and traditional models. Using UK data the suggestion is of a base projection for overall car use per person which is broadly stable for the next 20 years or so, falling slightly by 2036. The conclusion is that the combined effects of findings reported in this Issue are big enough to affect future transport conditions to a much more substantial extent than has been traditionally assumed.

Sectors or countries? Typologies and levels of analysis in comparative industrial relations

This article presents a critique of the ‘methodological nationalism’ of traditional comparative industrial relations. It investigates nine different sectors across the 27 EU member states on the basis of seven empirical indicators. It is found that industrial relations vary across sectors as deeply as they do across countries, and that a cluster analysis of sectoral industrial relations produces very different results from one at national aggregate level. The concept of ‘national model’ of industrial relations, implying coherence and homogeneity within countries, and geographical typologies of industrial relations ‘types’, are therefore put in question. The article concludes by pointing at the theoretical and methodological implications of a focus on the sector as an important level of analysis.

Macro Drivers of Australian Housing Affordability, 1985–2010: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Purpose - – Model the drivers of Australian housing affordability and forecast equilibrium affordability. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach - – Uses autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to model housing affordability measured by the Housing Industry Association's Housing Affordability Index (HAI) and the housing price-earnings multiplier (HPE). Six sets of explanatory variables, including housing finance, housing construction activity and costs, economic growth, population, alternative investments and taxation. Findings - – Primary long-run drivers are housing finance, dwelling approvals and financial assets. Economic and population growth only have a short-run influence, while housing taxation has limited impact in long run. Forecasts indicate long-run HAI equilibrium values of 109 (above the historical minimum of 107) and a HPE of seven (below the recent historical maximum of 8.2). Research limitations/implications - – Reduced form model encompassing both demand and supply factors involves complicated interpretation given direct and indirect effects on affordability. Analysis at national level ignores regional impacts that may also affect housing affordability. Practical implications - – The impact of the low rate of new dwelling approvals (public and private sector in the long run and public sector in the short run) points to a persistent structural gap between the demand and supply of housing. Strong economic and population growth often blamed for the worsening of housing affordability, at least in the 2000s, has no impact at the aggregate national level. Originality/value - – Only known paper to provide quantitative estimates of macro drivers of Australian housing affordability over a long period using alternative measures of relative housing affordability. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)