Age-specific Incidence Trends Research Articles

Age-specific incidence trends of 32 cancers in China, 1983 to 2032: Evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

The long-term incidence trends of 32 cancers in China remained unclear. Cancer statistics for young population were often presented in aggregate, masking important heterogeneity. We aimed to assess the incidence trends of 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2032, stratified by sex and age groups. Data on cancer incidence from 1983 to 2017 were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VI-XII. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to assess age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trends of 32 cancers in China, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to project future trends from 2018 to 2032. An increase in cohort effects is observed in some cancers such as thyroid and kidney cancers. Eight of the 12 obesity-related cancers may rise in the 0-14 age group, and nine in the 15-39 age group from 2013 to 2032. Liver and stomach cancers show an increasing trend among the younger population, contrasting with the observed declining trend in the middle-aged population. There has been a significant rise in the proportions of cervical cancer among females aged 40-64 (4.3%-19.1%), and prostate cancer among males aged 65+ (1.1%-11.8%) from 1983 to 2032. Cancer spectrum in China is shifting toward that in developed countries. Incidence rates of most cancers across different age groups may increase in recent cohorts. It is essential to insist effective preventive interventions, and promote healthier lifestyles, such as reducing obesity, especially among younger population.

Projected incidence trends of need for long-term care in German men and women from 2011 to 2021.

The German Federal Statistical Office routinely collects and reports aggregated numbers of people in need of long-term care (NLTC) stratified by age and sex. Age- and sex-specific prevalence of NLTC from 2011 to 2021 is reported as well. One estimation of the incidence rate of NLTC based on the age- and sex-specific prevalence exists that did not explore possible trends in incidence [based on MRR (mortality rate ratio)], which is important for an adequate projection of the future number of people with NLTC. We aim to explore possible trends in age-specific incidence of NLTC in German men and women from 2011 to 2021 based on different scenarios about excess mortality (in terms of MRR). The incidence of NLTC was calculated based on an illness-death model and a related partial differential equation based on data from the Federal Statistical Office. Estimation of annual percent change (APC) of the incidence rate was conducted in eight scenarios. There are consistent indications for trends in incidence for men and women aged 50-79 years with APC in incidence rate of more than +9% per year (up to nearly 19%). For ages 80+ the APC is between +0.4% and +12.5%. In all scenarios, women had higher age-specific APCs than men. We performed the first analysis of APC in the age- and sex-specific incidence rate of NLTC in Germany and revealed an increasing trend in the incidences. With these findings, a future prevalence of NLTC can be estimated which may exceed current prognoses.

Temporal and age-specific trends in incidence and 1-year case-fatality of hospitalized ischaemic stroke in Victoria, Australia

ObjectivesInvestigate temporal and age-specific trends in the incidence of ischaemic stroke and case-fatality risk in Victoria, Australia. Materials and methodsPatients hospitalised with first ischaemic stroke between 2012 and 2018 were included. Trends in age-standardised incidence rates of ischaemic stroke were assessed using linear regression models. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the case-fatality risk. ResultsOverall age-standardised incidence of ischaemic stroke was stable from 2012/13 to 2017/18 (87.6 to 84.8 events per 100,000 population; Annual percentage change [APC] -0.32; 95% Confidence interval [CI] -1.13 to 0.50). The incidence declined in females (APC -1.00; 95% CI -1.49 to -0.50), people aged 75-84 years (APC -1.60; 95% CI -2.83 to -0.36) and in metropolitan areas (APC -0.74; 95% CI -1.02 to -0.45). The risk of 1-year case-fatality (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.78 to 0.93) significantly declined in 2016/17 compared to 2012/13. ConclusionsOverall ischaemic stroke incidence remained stable while decreasing trends were observed in females, elderly and metropolitan areas. 1-year case-fatality declined from 2012 to 2017.

Epidemiology and Characteristics of Surgical Intervention for Infective Endocarditis: A Population-Based Study in the Past Two Decades (2000 – 2019) in Hong Kong

Background The ‘inflamm-ageing’ phenomenon may worsen the prognosis of heart diseases including infective endocarditis (IE), while surgery may reduce inflammatory burden by direct removal of bacterial vegetation. This study aims to characterize the epidemiological and clinical features of surgical intervention for IE in Hong Kong in the past two decades. Methods All patients with incident IE from 2000-2019 in a territory-wide database were identified. We studied the trends in age-specific incidence of IE and identified the most significant contributors to 1-year all-cause death using the population attributable fraction (PAF). A propensity score approach was used to evaluate the benefits of surgical intervention. Results A total of 5,657 patients (mean age 60 years, 37% women) were included. Patients have become older, with an increasing trend in mean age from 2000-2019 (annual percentage change [APC] 0.9%, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.1, P Conclusions Patients with IE have become older in the past two decades, while surgical intervention significantly improved survival. Our results may help to improve outcomes of patients with IE by informing public health and clinical decisions.

An ecological study of obesity-related cancer incidence trends in Australia from 1983 to 2017

SummaryBackgroundOverweight and obesity is a growing public health issue as it contributes to the future burden of obesity-related diseases, including cancer, especially in high-income countries. In Australia, 4.3% of all cancers diagnosed in 2013 were attributable to overweight and obesity. Our aim was to examine Australian age-specific incidence trends over the last 35 years for obesity-related cancers based on expert review (colorectal, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, breast in postmenopausal women, uterine, ovary, kidney, thyroid, and multiple myeloma) individually and pooled.MethodsAustralian incidence data for 10 obesity-related cancers among people aged 25–84 years, diagnosed from 1983 to 2017, were obtained from the Australian Cancer Database. We used age–period–cohort modelling and joinpoint analysis to assess trends, estimating incidence rate ratios (IRR) by birth-cohort for each individual cancer and pooled, and the annual percentage change. The analyses were also conducted for non-obesity-related cancers over the same period.FindingsThe total number of cancers where some proportion is obesity-related, diagnosed from 1983-2017, was 1,005,933. This grouping was 34.7% of cancers diagnosed. The IRR of obesity-related cancers increased from 0.77 (95% CI 0.73, 0.81) for the 1903 birth-cohort to 2.95 (95% CI 2.58, 3.38) for the recent 1988 cohort relative to the 1943 cohort. The IRRs of non-obesity related cancers were stable with non-significant decreases in younger cohorts. These trends were broadly similar across sex and age groups.InterpretationThe incidence of obesity-related cancers in Australia has increased by birth-cohort across all age-groups, which should be monitored. Obesity, a public health epidemic, needs to be addressed through increased awareness, policy support and evidence-based interventions.FundingThis research received no specific funding.

Changing age-specific trends in incidence, comorbidities and mortality of hospitalised heart failure in Western Australia between 2001 and 2016

BackgroundIncident heart failure (HF) hospitalisation rates in most high-income countries are stable or declining. However, HF incidence may be increasing in younger people linked to changing risk factor profiles in the general population. We examined age and sex-specific patterns of incidence, comorbidities and mortality of hospitalised HF in Western Australia (WA) between 2001 and 2016. Methods and resultsAll WA residents aged 25–94 years, with an incident (first-ever) principal HF discharge diagnosis between 2001 and 2016 were included (n = 22,476). Poisson regression derived annual age and sex-standardised rates of incident HF and 1-year mortality overall, and by age groups (25–54, 55–74, 75–94), across the study period. Overall, the age and sex-standardised rates of incident HF increased marginally by 0.6% per year (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.3, 0.8) whereas incidence increased by 3.1% per year (95% CI, 2.2, 4.0) in the 25–54 year age-group (trend p < 0.0001). There was a high prevalence (≥15%) of obesity, diabetes mellitus, cardiomyopathy, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, and chronic kidney disease in younger HF patients. Overall standardised 1-year mortality declined by −1.0% per year (95%CI, −0.4, −1.6), driven largely by the mortality decline in the 55–74 year age group. ConclusionIncident HF hospitalisation rates have been rising in WA since 2006, notably in individuals under 55 years. The underlying reasons require further investigation, particularly the population-attributable risk related to increasing obesity and diabetes mellitus in the general population. Rising HF incidence along with declining mortality rates portends to an increasing HF burden in the community.

Thyroid cancer overdiagnosis revisited

BackgroundEvidence has accumulated showing that an increase in thyroid cancer incidence reflects overdiagnosis of clinically unimportant lesions due to the rise in the use of neck ultrasonography. In the manuscript we examine the hypothesis that the rise in thyroid cancer incidence in Russia is largely caused by overdiagnosis. Materials and methodsIncidence and mortality rates of thyroid cancer for Russia overall and its administrative regions were abstracted from the statistical database of the Ministry of Health of Russia. For incidence trends, we calculated the percentage change, linear regression coefficient and p-value. The calculation of excess cases was based on expected age-specific distributions assuming that the incidence of thyroid cancer increases exponentially with age, as predicted by the multistage model of carcinogenesis. FindingsOver the study period (1989–2015) the age standardized incidence of thyroid cancer has tripled in Russian women and doubled in men. Strong support for the hypothesis that the increase in thyroid cancer incidence may be artificial is evident from age-specific incidence trends: increases in incidence in middle age but not in older ages, thereby altering the age curves from the expected exponential shape to an “inverted U” shape. The number of observed cases of thyroid cancer exceeded the expected number by 138, 325 or 70 % of all cases diagnosed with thyroid cancer. We attribute the excess cases to detection by ultrasonography clinically unimportant lesions. This is supported by a very high incidence –to-mortality ratio, low case fatality, high and growing prevalence of thyroid cancer. ConclusionAlthough there is an evidence that exposure to iodine 131 (131I) is an important cause of the increase in incidence of thyroid cancer in high-risk populations, we have shown that this increase could largely be attributed to overdiagnosis associated with ultrasonography screening. Overdiagnosis is the only explanation of the increase in thyroid cancer incidence in low-risk regions.

The incidence of young-onset colorectal cancer in Canada continues to increase

BackgroundDespite decreases in the overall incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Canada, a concerning increase has been observed among younger adults in recent years. The aim of this study was to update age-specific incidence trends of CRC from 1971 to 2017 in Canada. MethodsData was obtained from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System and the Canadian Cancer Registry. Age-specific annual percent changes in the incidence of CRC was estimated using NCI’s Joinpoint Regression Program. ResultsThe incidence of CRC among adults over age 50 has continued to decrease, while the incidence among adults under the age of 50 has continued to rise. The largest increases have occurred among 20−29 and 30−39 age groups for colon and rectal cancers, respectively. ConclusionThe incidence of CRC among young adults, particularly those under 40, continues to increase among men and women in Canada. Studies examining potential risk factors for young-onset CRC are required.

Age-specific trends in incidence and survival of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest from presumed cardiac cause in Denmark 2002–2014

BackgroundThe general cardiovascular health has improved throughout the last few decades for middle-aged and older individuals, but the incidence of several cardiovascular diseases is reported to increase in younger people. We aimed to assess the age-specific incidence and mortality rates associated with out-of-hospital-cardiac-arrest (OHCA) between 2002 and 2014. MethodsWe used the Danish Cardiac Arrest Register to identify patients with OHCA of presumed cardiac etiology. We calculated the annual incidence rates (IR) and 30-day mortality rates (MR) in 7 age groups (18–34 years, 35–44 years, 45–54 years, 55–64 years, 65–74 years, 75–84 years and ≥85 years, and ≤50 vs. >50 years). ResultsBetween 2002 and 2014, IR of OHCA decreased in individuals aged 65–74 and 75–84 years (158.08 to 111.2 and 237.5 to 217.09 per 100,000 person-years) and increased in the oldest from 201.01 to 325.4 pr. 100.000 person-years. In 18–34-years incidence of OHCA increased from 1.7 to 2.6 per 100.000 person-years. When stratifying into age ≤50 vs. >50 years, the IR deviated in those >50 years (from 117.8 in 2002 to 91 in 2008 to 117.4 in 2014100,000 person-years). The prevalence of acute myocardial infarction and heart failure prior to OHCA increased in the younger patient group in contrast to the older segment (AMI: ≤50 years: 10% to 16%, vs. >50 years: 25% to 23%, heart failure: ≤50 years 6% to 14%, vs. >50 years: 21% to 24%). ConclusionOver the last decades, incidence rates of OHCA decreased in individuals aged 65–84, but increased in individuals older than 85. An increase was also observed in younger individuals, potentially indicating a need for better cardiovascular disease prevention in younger adults.

Type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence trends in a cohort of Canadian children and youth.

Incidence rates of type 1 diabetes have long been on the rise across the globe, however, there is emerging evidence that the rate of rise may be slowing. The objective of this study was to describe trends in the incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in a sample of Canadian children and youth. Cases were extracted using linked administrative datasets and a validated diabetes case-finding definition. Incidence and prevalence trends were analyzed using the JoinPoint regression analysis program. A small increase in the incidence of type 1 diabetes was observed over the 11-year period from 2002-2003 to 2012-2013. Total incident cases per year ranged from 201 (2005-2006) to 250 (2007-2008). Total prevalent cases per year ranged from 1790 (2002-2003) to 2264 (2012-2013). Incidence was highest among children aged 5 to 14 years, and lowest in the youngest (1-4 years) and oldest (15-19 years) age brackets. The most significant increase in incidence was in children aged 10 to 14 years. Age-standardized prevalence increased significantly throughout the study period. These results are similar to data from the United States but differ from European data with respect to the annual percent change for incidence as well as age-specific incidence trends. In keeping with the low mortality rates associated with type 1 diabetes, the prevalence continues to rise.

Age-Specific Trends in Incidence, Mortality, and Comorbidities of Heart Failure in Denmark, 1995 to 2012.

The cumulative burden and importance of cardiovascular risk factors have changed over the past decades. Specifically, obesity rates have increased among younger people, whereas cardiovascular health has improved in the elderly. Little is known regarding how these changes have impacted the incidence and the mortality rates of heart failure. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the age-specific trends in the incidence and 1-year mortality rates following a first-time diagnosis of heart failure in Denmark between 1995 and 2012. We included all Danish individuals >18 years of age with a first-time in-hospital diagnosis of heart failure. Data were collected from 3 nationwide Danish registries. Annual incidence rates of heart failure and 1-year standardized mortality rates were calculated under the assumption of a Poisson distribution. We identified 210 430 individuals with a first-time diagnosis of heart failure between 1995 and 2012; the annual incidence rates per 10 000 person-years declined among older individuals (rates in 1995 versus 2012: 164 versus 115 in individuals >74 years, 63 versus 35 in individuals 65-74 years, and 20 versus 17 in individuals 55-64 years; P<0.0001 for all) but increased among the younger (0.4 versus 0.7 in individuals 18-34 years, 1.3 versus 2.0 in individuals 35-44 years, and 5.0 versus 6.4 in individuals 45-54 years; P<0.0001 for all). The proportion of patients with incident heart failure ≤50 years of age doubled from 3% in 1995 to 6% in 2012 (P<0.0001). Sex- and age-adjusted incidence rate ratios for 2012 versus 1996 were 0.69 (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.71; P<0.0001) among people >50 years of age, and 1.52 (95% confidence interval, 1.33-1.73; P<0.0001) among individuals ≤50 years of age; it remained essentially unchanged on additional adjustment for diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease, and hypertension. Standardized 1-year mortality rates declined for middle-aged patients with heart failure but remained constant for younger (<45 years) and elderly (≥65 years) patients. The prevalence of comorbidities (including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and atrial fibrillation) increased, especially in younger patients with heart failure. Over the past 2 decades, the incidence of heart failure in Denmark declined among older individuals (>50 years), but increased among younger (≤50 years) individuals. These observations may portend a rising burden of heart failure in the community.

The campylobacteriosis conundrum – examining the incidence of infection withCampylobactersp. in Australia, 1998–2013

Campylobacter sp. are a globally significant cause of gastroenteritis. Although rates of infection in Australia are among the highest in the industrialized world, studies describing campylobacteriosis incidence in Australia are lacking. Using national disease notification data between 1998 and 2013 we examined Campylobacter infections by gender, age group, season and state and territory. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs), including trends by age group over time, with post-estimation commands used to obtain adjusted incidence rates. The incidence rate for males was significantly higher than for females [IRR 1·20, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·18-1·21], while a distinct seasonality was demonstrated with higher rates in both spring (IRR 1·18, 95% CI 1·16-1·20) and summer (IRR 1·17, 95% CI 1·16-1·19). Examination of trends in age-specific incidence over time showed declines in incidence in those aged <40 years combined with contemporaneous increases in older age groups, notably those aged 70-79 years (IRR 1998-2013: 1·75, 95% CI 1·63-1·88). While crude rates continue to be highest in children, our findings suggest the age structure for campylobacteriosis in Australia is changing, carrying significant public health implications for older Australians.

Incidence of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tears and Reconstruction

Background: The incidence of isolated anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears in the general population is not well defined. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to define the population-based incidence of ACL tears, describe trends in ACL injuries over time, and evaluate changes in the rate of surgical management. The hypothesis was that the incidence of ACL injury and the rate of subsequent ACL reconstruction increase over time. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: The study population included 1841 individuals who were diagnosed with new-onset, isolated ACL tears (without concomitant ligament injury that required surgery) between January 1, 1990, and December 31, 2010. The complete medical records were reviewed to confirm diagnosis and to extract injury and treatment details. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates were calculated and adjusted to the 2010 US population. Poisson regression analyses were performed to examine incidence trends by age, sex, and calendar period. Results: The overall age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence of ACL tears was 68.6 per 100,000 person-years. Incidence was significantly higher in male patients than in females (81.7 vs 55.3 per 100,000, P < .001). The incidence of isolated ACL tears decreased significantly over time in males (P < .001) but remained relatively stable in females. Age-specific patterns differed in male and female patients, with a peak in incidence (241.0 per 100,000) between 19 and 25 years in males and a peak in incidence (227.6 per 100,000) between 14 and 18 years in females. The rate of ACL reconstruction increased significantly over time in all age groups (P < .001). Conclusion: With an annual incidence of 68.6 per 100,000 person-years, isolated ACL tears remain a common orthopaedic injury. Differences in age-specific incidence trends in male and female patients may potentially reflect differences in sports participation patterns through the high school and college years. The significant increase in the rate of ACL reconstruction over time may reflect changing surgical indications or an increasing desire among patients to return to high levels of activity after ACL injury.

Impact of the UK colorectal cancer screening pilot studies on incidence, stage distribution and mortality trends

Objective: To assess the impact of the UK colorectal cancer guaiac faecal occult blood test screening pilot studies on incidence trends, stage distribution and mortality trends. Design: Ecological study. Setting: Scotland and the West Midlands. Data: We extracted anonymised colorectal cancer (ICD-10 C18–C20) registration (1982–2006) and death records (1982–2007), along with corresponding mid-year population estimates. Intervention: Residents of the screening pilot areas, in the age group 50–69 years, were offered biennial guaiac faecal occult blood test screening from 2000 onwards. Screening was not offered routinely in non-pilot areas until the start of the roll-out of the national screening programmes in England and in Scotland in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Main outcome measures: We analysed trends in age-specific incidence and mortality rates, and Dukes’ stage distribution. Within each country/region, we compared the screening pilot areas to non-screening pilot (‘control’) areas using Chi square tests and Poisson regression modelling. Results: Following the start of the screening pilots, as expected in the prevalent round of a new screening programme, in the pilot areas there was a short-lived increase in incidence of colorectal cancer among 50–69 year olds except for females in the West Midlands. A trend towards earlier stage and less advanced disease was also observed, with males showing significant increases in Dukes’ A and corresponding decreases in Dukes’ C in the screening pilot areas (all P<0.03). With the exception of females in the West Midlands, mortality rates for colorectal cancer decreased significantly and at a faster rate in the populations invited for screening. Conclusion: The existence of a natural control population not yet invited for screening provided a unique opportunity to assess whether the benefits of colorectal cancer screening, beyond the setting of a randomised controlled trial, could be detected using routinely collected statistics. Our analysis suggests that screening will fulfil its aim of reducing mortality from colorectal cancer.

Age and gender differences in incidence and case fatality trends for myocardial infarction: a 30-year follow-up. The Tromsø Study

Although the mortality of coronary heart disease (CHD) has declined in Western countries during the last decades, studies have suggested that the prevention and treatment of CHD may not have been as effective in women as in men. We examined gender- and age-specific trends in incidence, case fatality and the severity of first myocardial infarction (MI) in a large Norwegian population-based study. Prospective population-based cohort study. A total of 31,323 participants enrolled between 1974 and 2001 were followed throughout 2004 for a total of 400,572 person-years. Suspected coronary events were adjudicated by a review of hospital records and death certificates. A total of 1669 events fulfilled standardized criteria of first-ever fatal or non-fatal MI. In the age group 35-79 years, the age-adjusted incidence of MI declined significantly in men, whereas an increase was observed in women. For men and women ≥ 80 years the incidence rates remained unchanged. The severity of MI and the 28-day and 1-year case fatality rates declined significantly and similarly in men and women. Trends in MI incidence differed by sex and age; in the age group 35-79 years a marked decrease was observed among men but an increase was observed among women, while no change was observed among older patients. MI severity and case fatality were clearly reduced for both sexes. These data suggest that the burden of CHD is shifting from middle-aged men toward middle-aged women and elderly patients.

Up-to-date estimates of breast cancer survival for the years 2000–2004 in 11 European countries: The role of screening and a comparison with data from the United States

Introduction We investigated survival in breast cancer patients by age group, focussing on those covered by screening programmes, using data from 12 European population-based cancer registries participating in the European Network for Indicators on Cancer Survival Working Group. Methods We calculated period estimates of 5-year relative survival for 2000–2004 and examined the change in survival estimates for four age groups between 1990–1994 and 2000–2004. Trends in age specific incidence, survival and mortality were additionally compared to those in the United States based on results from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) programme. Results Breast cancer survival uniformly increased particularly in areas with lower breast cancer survival for patients diagnosed in 1990–1994. With the exception of Geneva, Scotland and Estonia, the rise in survival was always larger among the younger age groups than in the 70+ age group and the age-gradient widened over time. The 5-year relative survival of patients aged 70 and above in the European registries was at least 7 percentage points lower than the 5-year relative survival of patients in the same age group in the US in 2000–2004. During the study period, incidence increased in all age groups and populations with a few exceptions, an observation paralleled by declining mortality. Conclusions Results showed that some of the geographical differences in overall survival are even larger when considering age groups, in particular between Western and Eastern European countries. Furthermore, some of the differences in survival within the Northern and Western European areas could be due to variations in the implementation of screening programmes rather than economic inequalities.

Preventable breast cancer is postmenopausal

Breast cancer incidence has markedly increased in Western countries for reasons that are not entirely understood. We characterized periodic and age-specific incidence trends of breast cancer in immigrants who migrated from low incidence areas to Sweden. The incidence in immigrants was compared to that in native Swedes and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated, based on the Swedish Family-Cancer Database. Age-specific incidence data for low and high incidence populations were obtained from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents IX and NORDCAN. For immigrants from the seven lowest countries/regions 535 breast cancers were identified; the SIRs ranging from 0.45 for Turkish to 0.70 for Greek women. The SIR increased somewhat with the length of stay in Sweden, from 0.55 for stay between 0 and 10 years to 0.59 for a stay of 20+ years. The age-specific incidence curves for these immigrants were superimposable upon the earliest Swedish (year 1960) or Danish (1943) rates. These rates differed from the current Swedish rates by a much lower postmenopausal component. Large incidence differences were also observed between white Californians and immigrants from China and Korea. Our results show that the main difference between high and low incidence areas is in postmenopausal cancer which has increased preferentially during the past century. Immigrants from low risk areas to Sweden show age-specific incidence patterns of Swedes half a century ago. These differences offer opportunities for the identification of factors underlying breast cancer etiology and tools for prevention.

Age-specific trends in incidence of noncardia gastric cancer in US adults.

For the last 50 years, overall age-standardized incidence rates for noncardia gastric cancer have steadily declined in most populations. However, overall rates are summary measures that may obscure important age-specific trends. To examine effects of age at diagnosis on noncardia gastric cancer incidence trends in the United States. Descriptive study with age-period-cohort analysis of cancer registration data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, which covers approximately 26% of the US population. From 1977 through 2006, there were 83,225 adults with incident primary gastric cancer, including 39,003 noncardia cases. Overall and age-specific incidence rates, adjusted for period and cohort effects using age-period-cohort models. Results were stratified by race, sex, and socioeconomic status. Overall age-standardized annual incidence per 100,000 population declined during the study period from 5.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.7-6.1) to 4.0 (95% CI, 3.9-4.1) in whites, from 13.7 (95% CI, 12.5-14.9) to 9.5 (95% CI, 9.1-10.0) in blacks, and from 17.8 (95% CI, 16.1-19.4) to 11.7 (95% CI, 11.2-12.1) in other races. Age-specific trends among whites varied significantly between older and younger age groups (P < .001 for interaction by age): incidence per 100,000 declined significantly from 19.8 (95% CI, 19.0-20.6) to 12.8 (95% CI, 12.5-13.1) for ages 60 to 84 years and from 2.6 (95% CI, 2.4-2.8) to 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.1) for ages 40 to 59 years but increased significantly from 0.27 (95% CI, 0.19-0.35) to 0.45 (95% CI, 0.39-0.50) for ages 25 to 39 years. Conversely, rates for all age groups declined or were stable among blacks and other races. Age-period-cohort analysis confirmed a significant increase in whites among younger cohorts born since 1952 (P < .001). From 1977 through 2006, the incidence rate for noncardia gastric cancer declined among all race and age groups except for whites aged 25 to 39 years, for whom it increased. Additional surveillance and analytical studies are warranted to identify risk factors that may explain this unfavorable trend.

Disentangling the Roles of Mammographic Screening and HRT in Recent Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in Italy by Analyses Based on Calendar Time and Time Since Screening Activation

The aim of the study was to evaluate the roles of screening activation and hormone replacement therapy discontinuation on the recent declining breast cancer incidence trends in Italy. We analyzed 41,358 invasive female breast cancers incident during 1991-2004 in six Italian population-based cancer registries. Overall and age-specific incidence trends were evaluated using Joinpoint analysis. In addition to calendar years, data were analyzed on a years-since-screening-activation basis. Annual percentage change of standardized rates was computed. There were statistically significant increasing trends for women 40-44 and 45-49 years that did not change after screening activation. On the contrary, for women 50-69 years old and for those 70+ years, the increasing trends flattened around 2 years after screening activation. The prevalence of hormone replacement therapy use in Italy is and was rather low. In conclusion, the recent tendency toward stabilization observed in Italy for female breast cancer incidence rates in women aged 50 years or more follows the introduction of mammographic screening.

Trends in incidence of and mortality from uterine and ovarian cancer in Mid and South Limburg, The Netherlands, 1986–2003

The prevalence of risk factors for endometrial and ovarian cancer, such as obesity, oral contraceptive use and parity has changed among Dutch women. Therefore, trends in age-specific incidence and mortality from endometrial and ovarian cancer were studied between 1986 and 2003 in the region of the Maastricht Cancer Registry. Trends were standardized to the European population and were examined by the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The overall incidence and mortality from endometrial cancer increased in the period 1993-2003 by 3.4% (P=0.03) and 4.0% (P=0.04), respectively. The increasing incidence trend was observed in stages II and III tumours. Overall incidence trends of ovarian cancer declined after 1992 by 2.6% (P=0.03) and overall mortality after 1991 by 1.7% (P=0.04). The increasing prevalence of obesity might explain the increasing trends in endometrial cancer. Parity and increased oral contraceptive use could possibly explain the decline in ovarian cancer.