Age Patterns Of Migration Research Articles

Forever young: China’s migration regime and age patterns

ABSTRACT Chinese institutional arrangements, particularly the hukou system, hinder long-term settlement of internal migrants by limiting their access to social benefits. This article proposes a new method for assessing migrant settlement: the use of age data to investigate the link between migrant “flow” and “stock”. We contend that migrants’ inability to settle mainly derives from two sources: the difficulties in maintaining migrant family togetherness, and the impediments to long-term residence of migrants themselves. Age-related indices were developed to compare China’s internal migration with other countries’ internal and international migration. The results indicate a “China difference” in migration age patterns – child and elderly dependents of migrant workers are discouraged from migrating, while migrants growing old tend to return to the origins than to remain in the destinations. Consequently, family togetherness and long-term residence in the destinations are often unachievable for migrants. Our analyses highlight China’s unique migrant labor regime, where temporary migrant workers are continuously “recycled” to keep destinations’ workforce “forever young”, reducing production costs of Chinese goods in global markets. Methodologically, our age-based “mobile-to-settled” transition framework and “settlement rate” of migrants in the transition are of value in examining migrant settlement chances more generally, applicable to internal and international migration beyond China.

Modelling Age Patterns of Internal Migration at the Highest Ages

Model migration age schedules have proved valuable to demographers for a range of applications for over 40 years. The original Rogers-Castro curve has been extended over time to include a retirement curve, a post-retirement curve, and a student peak. With demographic analyses extending to higher age groups than in the past due to population ageing, it is important for the model schedule to faithfully reflect migration patterns at advanced ages. Recent data on internal migration in the nonagenarian and centenarian ages reveals several examples of rising then falling mobility with increasing age. This paper suggests an alternative specification of the post-retirement curve of the model schedule to reflect this pattern. The modified model migration schedule is successfully fitted to example internal migration age patterns from Australia, Canada and the Netherlands. The modified schedule should prove useful in preparing input data for population projections and analyses of migration age patterns extending to the highest ages.

Internal migration age patterns and the transition to adulthood: Australia and Great Britain compared

Life-course transitions are important drivers of mobility, resulting in a concentration of migration at young adult ages. While there is increasing evidence of cross-national variations in the ages at which young adults move, the relative importance of various key life-course transitions in shaping these differences remains poorly understood. Prior studies typically focus on a single country and examine the influence of a single transition on migration, independently from other life-course events. To better understand the determinants of cross-national variations in migration ages, this paper analyses for Australia and Great Britain the joint influence of five key life-course transitions on migration: (1) higher education entry, (2) labour force entry, (3) partnering, (4) marriage and (5) family formation. We first characterise the age profile of short- and long-distance migration and the age profile of life-course transitions. We then use event-history analysis to establish the relative importance of each life-course transitions on migration. Our results show that the age structure and the relative importance of life-course transitions vary across countries, shaping differences in migration age patterns. In Great Britain, the strong association of migration with multiple transitions explains the concentration of migration at young adult ages, which is further amplified by the age-concentration and alignment of multiple transitions at similar ages. By contrast in Australia a weaker influence of life-course transitions on migration, combined with a dispersion of entry into higher education across a wide age range, contribute to a protracted migration age profile. Comparison by distance moved reveals further differences in the mix of transitions driving migration in each country, confirming the impact of the life-course in shaping migration age patterns.

Smoothing internal migration age profiles for comparative research

BACKGROUND: Age patterns are a key dimension to compare migration between countries and over time. Comparative metrics can be reliably computed only if data capture the underlying age distribution of migration. Model schedules, the prevailing smoothing method, fit a composite exponential function, but are sensitive to function selection and initial parameter setting. Although non-parametric alternatives exist, their performance is yet to be established. OBJECTIVE: We compare cubic splines and kernel regressions against model schedules by assessing which method provides an accurate representation of the age profile and best performs on metrics for comparing aggregate age patterns. METHOD: We use full population microdata for Chile to perform 1,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for nine sample sizes and two spatial scales. We use residual and graphic analysis to assess model performance on the age and intensity at which migration peaks and the evolution of migration age patterns. RESULTS: Model schedules generate a better fit when (1) the expected distribution of the age profile is known a priori, (2) the pre-determined shape of the model schedule adequately describes the true age distribution, and (3) the component curves and initial parameter values can be correctly set. When any of these conditions is not met, kernel regressions and cubic splines offer more reliable alternatives. CONCLUSION: Smoothing models should be selected according to research aims, age profile characteristics, and sample size. Kernel regressions and cubic splines enable a precise representation of aggregate migration age profiles for most sample sizes, without requiring parameter setting or imposing a pre-determined distribution, and therefore facilitate objective comparison.

The impact of education-bound mobility on inter-regional migration age profiles in Australia

Research on internal migration age profiles is important for understanding the dynamics of a country’s population geography, creating accurate population estimates in non-census years, and smoothing migration age profiles for sub-national population projections. In the international literature, internal migration age profiles are often characterised as relatively stable over time and space, and consisting of gradual changes in migration intensities from one age to the next – as depicted by the widely-used model migration schedule. However, a few migration age profiles in Australia are known to exhibit highly age-specific ‘spikes’ related to movement to higher education institutions. This paper undertakes an investigation of inter-regional migration age profiles in Australia to determine the extent of the phenomenon. Data from the Australian 2011 Census are used to create inter-regional migration probabilities by single years of age, together with more specific probabilities describing university-bound and boarding school-bound migration. Migration age patterns at three spatial scales of region are examined. It is shown that university-bound age-specific spikes are present in the majority of regional in- and out-migration age profiles in Australia at either age 18 or 19. In many cases this results in the peak migration probability occurring at these ages. Boarding school-bound migration is less significant and present in a smaller proportion of regional migration age profiles. In preparing smoothed migration age profiles for sub-national population projections it is imperative to smooth out noise but retain these significant education-bound migration spikes. Further work is required to determine the optimum ways of smoothing these migration age profiles.

Age patterns of migration among Korean adults in early 20th-century Seoul

In this study, we examine age patterns of migration among adults who resided in Seoul in the early twentieth century. We use information, obtained from the Seoul household registers, on the length of time these adults lived in their current residences to estimate age-specific migration rates and construct migration life tables. Our findings point to the following: First, Seoul residents were quite mobile. On average, during the early twentieth century, Seoul residents moved approximately four times between their primary working ages of 15 and 64. Second, upper-class individuals were more mobile than lower-class individuals. While the upper-class individuals moved approximately five times between ages 15 and 65, the lower-class individuals moved less than three times. This class differential can be explained because Korean bureaucrats experienced frequent duty changes during this period. Third, household composition also affected migration rates. We compare our results with European migration studies and discuss the implications of these finding on urbanization that occurred in early twentieth century Seoul.

On the dynamics of interstate migration: Migration costs and self-selection

This paper develops a dynamic structural model of migration decisions that is aggregated to describe the behavior of interregional migration. Our structural approach allows us to deal with dynamic self-selection problems that arise from the endogeneity of location choice and the persistence of migration incentives. The self-selection problem is solved by keeping track of the distribution of migration incentives over time. This econometric treatment has important consequences for the estimation of structural parameters such as migration costs. For US interstate migration, we obtain a cost estimate of roughly two-thirds of an average annual household income. We also show that the treatment of income persistence has important consequences for comparative statics of the model as well as microeconomic age patterns of migration.

Baby Boom Migration and Its Impact on Rural America

Members of the baby boom cohort, now 45-63 years old, are approaching a period in their lives when moves to rural and small-town destinations increase. An analysis of age-specific, net migration during the 1990s reveals extensive shifts in migration patterns as Americans move through different life-cycle stages. Assuming similar age patterns of migration, this report identifies the types of nonmetropolitan counties that are likely to experience the greatest surge in baby boom migration during 2000-20 and projects the likely impact on the size and distribution of retirement-age populations in destination counties. The analysis finds a significant increase in the propensity to migrate to nonmetro counties as people reach their fifties and sixties and projects a shift in migration among boomers toward more isolated settings, especially those with high natural and urban amenities and lower housing costs. If baby boomers follow past migration patterns, the nonmetro population age 55-75 will increase by 30 percent between now and 2020.

Changing patterns of interregional migration and population redistribution in the United States : a cohort perspective

Évolution des migrations interrégionales et de la redistribution de la population aux États-Unis : une approche longitudinale. Au cours des dernières décennies, les démographes se sont intéressés à l'effet de la taille relative des générations sur la fécondité. Cet article examine l'effet de la taille relative des générations sur le niveau, la structure spatiale et la composition par âge des migrations interrégionales des jeunes adultes aux États-Unis. Le but de cet article est de tester certaines des hypothèses avancées par Plane et Rogerson dans un article récent sur ce sujet. Trois générations sont étudiées sur trois intervalles de temps : 1935-1940, 1955-1960, 1975-1980. S'ap- puyant sur le fait bien documenté maintenant selon lequel le lieu de naissance exerce une influence sur le comportement migratoire, les migrations de retour vers le lieu de naissance sont distinguées de l'ensemble des migrations. La taille relative des générations s'avère avoir un effet sur le niveau et la composition par âge des migrations. Par contre, l'effet sur la structure spatiale n'est pas clair puisque différents indices de concentration spatiale présentent différentes évolutions au cours des trois périodes de temps examinées.

The Internal Migration and Spatial Redistribution of the Foreign-Born Population in the United States: 1965–70 and 1975–80

"This article examines the importance of place of birth [for] the internal migration and spatial redistribution patterns of the foreign-born population in the United States during the 1965-70 and the 1975-80 periods, relying principally on the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files for our input data. The diverse nationalities are aggregated into eight different regions of origin: Mexico, Puerto Rico, Rest of South and Central America, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania, Canada and the Rest of the World. First, the regional distribution of these eight groups at the 1970 and 1980 censuses are examined. Next, the spatial redistribution of the foreign-born population and its changes over time are studied...." This paper was originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.

The importance of place of birth in migration and population redistribution analysis.

"In this paper, U.S. Census data is used to examine further the importance of place of birth on migration streams and to trace the impacts of such 'native dependence' on age patterns of migration, multiregional life expectancies, and spatial population projections."

Age patterns of elderly migration: An international comparison

Age-specific rates of migration exhibit remarkably persistent regularities in age profile. These regularities seem to hold all over the world and across time. This article identifies some of the principal antecedents of such regularities, focusing especially on the age patterns of migration exhibited by the elderly. It examines the differentials introduced by gender, distance, and marital status.