Age-independent Mortality Research Articles

THE LONG LIVES OF PRIMATES AND THE ‘INVARIANT RATE OF AGING’ HYPOTHESIS

Abstract Can we slow the rate of human aging? A decades-long trend toward increasing life expectancy and greater lifespan equality in human populations raises the possibility that we can. But the rate of aging is closely correlated with other traits and may be highly constrained or even relatively fixed within species, according to the ‘invariant rate of aging’ hypothesis. To gain insight into biological constraints on aging, we use an unprecedented collection of datasets from 39 human and nonhuman primate populations, representing 7 genera distributed across the order Primates. We show that the highly regular linear relationship between life expectancy and lifespan equality reported in humans is recapitulated in other primate genera, and that variation in the rate of aging is several orders of magnitude smaller than pre-adult and age-independent mortality, which are highly variable within genera. Thus, within primate genera, longer life expectancies are associated with fewer early deaths, but not with a lower rate of aging. We also demonstrate that changes in the rate of aging, but not other ageing parameters, can produce striking, species-atypical changes in mortality patterns. Our results support the invariant rate of aging hypothesis, suggesting biological constraints on how much we can slow the human rate of aging.

Tracking hybrid viability across life stages in a natural avian contact zone.

Hybrid inviability is an important post-zygotic reproductive barrier between species, but emerging signs of reduced viability can be difficult to study across the lifespan of natural hybrids. We use a combination of long-term monitoring, extra-pair paternity, and mitochondrial DNA identification in a natural hybrid zone of Ficedula flycatchers to detect emerging signs of intrinsic hybrid inviability across their entire lifespan. We evaluate possible evidence of Darwin's corollary to Haldane's rule, predicting asymmetries in inviability between hybrids resulting from reciprocal crosses, due to incompatible genetic factors with sex-specific inheritance patterns. We found higher hatching failure among mixed-species pairs, possibly indicating early developmental impairments associated with specific parental genetic combinations. Adult hybrids had a higher basal mortality rate than both parental species and different age-specific mortality trajectories. There were signs of differences in age-independent mortality rates between the reciprocal hybrid crosses: hybrids with a pied flycatcher mother experienced slightly increased mortality later in life. Using an exceptional dataset with many natural hybrids tracked across life stages, we provide evidence for several emerging signs of reduced hybrid viability. Incompatibilities between alleles located on autosomes and uniparentally inherited factors such as Z-linked and/or mitochondrial genes are strong candidates underlying intrinsic hybrid dysfunction in this system.

Population trends and the transition to agriculture: Global processes as seen from North America

Agriculture-specifically an intensification of the production of readily stored food and its distribution-has supported an increase in the global human population throughout the Holocene. Today, with greatly accelerated of growth during recent centuries, we have reached about 8 billion people. Human skeletal and archaeobotanical remains clarify what occurred over several millennia of profound societal and population change in small-scale societies once distributed across the North American midcontinent. Stepwise, not gradual, changes in the move toward an agriculturally based life, as indicated by plant remains, left a demographic signal reflecting age-independent ([Formula: see text]) mortality as estimated from skeletons. Designated the age-independent component of the Siler model, it is tracked through the juvenility index (JI), which is increasingly being used in studies of archaeological skeletons. Usually interpreted as a fertility indicator, the JI is more responsive to age-independent mortality in societies that dominated most of human existence. In the midcontinent, the JI increased as people transitioned to a more intensive form of food production that prominently featured maize. Several centuries later, the JI declined, along with a reversion to a somewhat more diverse diet and a reduction in overall population size. Changes in age-independent mortality coincided with previously recognized increases in intergroup conflict, group movement, and pathogen exposure. Similar rises and falls in JI values have been reported for other parts of the world during the emergence of agricultural systems.

Omitting age-dependent mosquito mortality in malaria models underestimates the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets.

Mathematical models of vector-borne infections, including malaria, often assume age-independent mortality rates of vectors, despite evidence that many insects senesce. In this study we present survival data on insecticide-resistant Anopheles gambiae s.l. from experiments in Côte d’Ivoire. We fit a constant mortality function and two age-dependent functions (logistic and Gompertz) to the data from mosquitoes exposed (treated) and not exposed (control) to insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), to establish biologically realistic survival functions. This enables us to explore the effects of insecticide exposure on mosquito mortality rates, and the extent to which insecticide resistance might impact the effectiveness of ITNs. We investigate this by calculating the expected number of infectious bites a mosquito will take in its lifetime, and by extension the vectorial capacity. Our results show that the predicted vectorial capacity is substantially lower in mosquitoes exposed to ITNs, despite the mosquitoes in the experiment being highly insecticide-resistant. The more realistic age-dependent functions provide a better fit to the experimental data compared to a constant mortality function and, hence, influence the predicted impact of ITNs on malaria transmission potential. In models with age-independent mortality, there is a great reduction for the vectorial capacity under exposure compared to no exposure. However, the two age-dependent functions predicted an even larger reduction due to exposure, highlighting the impact of incorporating age in the mortality rates. These results further show that multiple exposures to ITNs had a considerable effect on the vectorial capacity. Overall, the study highlights the importance of including age dependency in mathematical models of vector-borne disease transmission and in fully understanding the impact of interventions.

An explanation for negligible senescence in animals.

Negligible or negative senescence occurs when mortality risk is stable or decreases with age, and has been observed in some wild animals. Age‐independent mortality in animals may lead to an abnormally long maximum individual lifespans and be incompatible with evolutionary theories of senescence. The reason why there is no evidence of senescence in these animals has not been fully understood. Recovery rates are usually very low for wild animals with high dispersal ability and/or small body size (e.g., bats, rodents, and most birds). The only information concerning senescence for most of these species is the reported lifespan when individuals are last seen or caught. We deduced the probability density function of the reported lifespan based on the assumption that the real lifespan corresponding to Weibull or Gompertz distribution. We show that the magnitude of the increase in mortality risk is largely underestimated based on the reported lifespans with low recovery probability. The risk of mortality can aberrantly appear to have a negative correlation with age when it actually increases with increasing lifespan. We demonstrated that the underestimated aging rate for wild animals with low recovery probability can be generalizable to any aging models. Our work provides an explanation for the appearance of negligible senescence in many wild animals. Humans attempt to obtain insights from other creatures to better understand our own biology and its gain insight into how to enhance and extended human health. Our advice is to take a second glance before admiring the negligible senescence in other animals. This ability to escape from senescence is possibly only as beautiful illusion in animals.

The effect of climate on age specific survival and senescence in a Hazel Dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius) population in Lithuania, across 1997-2021

It is well known that survival and the dynamics of wild populations are affected by environmental factors. Recent research has found that, among some species of mammal, differences in environmental conditions between populations of the same species translate into changes in infant and juvenile mortality, but not in the rate of senescence (‘rate of aging’). This has been confirmed among primates and some species of carnivores, but has not been tested on other taxonomic groups, such as rodents. Here, we analyse age-specific survival and mortality on the most extensive capture-mark-recapture data set on Hazel Dormouse available from Lithuania. We used Bayesian survival trajectory analysis (BaSTA) and tested different models of age-specific mortality. Since the Hazel Dormouse population is in decline across its northern distribution, potentially in response to climate change, we divided the data into three periods to assess changes in survival over time. Regional climate data were obtained from the NOAA data service to test the effect of climatic factors on survival during winter and summer respectively. Our results show that, during all three periods, male life expectancies were longer than those of females. We found that the overall level of mortality was high for all three periods, with lowest mortality during the period 1999 - 2004. We found large differences in juvenile mortality and age-independent mortality between the three periods, but not in adult mortality or in the rate of senescence. This is consistent with previous findings on other mammals, supporting the invariant rate of aging hypothesis.

Chili pepper extends lifespan in a concentration-dependent manner and confers cold resistance on Drosophila melanogaster cohorts by influencing specific metabolic pathways.

Chili powder is a widely used spice with pungent taste, often consumed on a daily basis in several countries. Recent prospective cohort studies showed that the regular use of chili pepper improves healthspan in humans. Indeed, chili pepper fruits contain phenolic substances which are structurally similar to those that show anti-aging properties. The objective of our study was to test whether consumption of chili-supplemented food by the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, would prolong lifespan and in which way this chili-supplemented food affects animal metabolism. Chili powder added to food in concentrations of 0.04%-0.12% significantly extended median lifespan in fruit fly cohorts of both genders by 9% to 13%. However, food supplemented with 3% chili powder shortened lifespan of male cohorts by 9%. Lifespan extension was accompanied by a decrease in age-independent mortality (i.e., death in early ages). The metabolic changes caused by consumption of chili-supplemented food had a pronounced dependence on gender. A characteristic of both fruit fly sexes that ate chili-supplemented food was an increased resistance to cold shock. Flies of both sexes had lower levels of hemolymph glucose when they ate food supplemented with low concentrations of chili powder, as compared with controls. However, males fed on food with 3% chili had lower levels of storage lipids and pyruvate reducing activity of lactate dehydrogenase compared with controls. Females fed on this food showed lower activities of hexokinase and pyruvate kinase, as well as lower ADP/O ratios, compared with control flies.

Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential Is Associated with Increased Age-Independent Morbidity and Mortality in Patients with COVID-19- the Beyond DNA COVID-19 Project

Background: SARS-Cov-2 infections are associated with increased mortality and morbidity, largely due to inflammatory cascades and cytokine release syndrome (CRS). Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is defined by the presence and subsequent expansion of somatic, leukemia-associated driver mutations in apparently healthy individuals with normal blood counts. CHIP has been associated with increased inflammation, with cytokines such as IL1-b, IL6 and TNF-a being elevated at baseline in affected individuals. We hypothesized that the presence of CHIP in patients with COVID-19 would result in excessive inflammation-related mortality and morbidity.Methods: We used the Mayo Clinic COVID-19 database to identify patients with COVID-19 on whom peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were available for research use (IRB approved). We carried out target-capture next generation sequencing for 220 CH related genes, by previously described methods (1000 x coverage, variant allele fraction/VAF detection limit >0.5%; Kusne Y et al AJH 2021). CHIP was defined by the presence of a CH mutation with a VAF>1% in an individual with normal baseline blood counts. Demographics, blood counts, and inflammatory markers (CRP and cytokine levels- ELISA assay) at COVID-19 diagnosis and during follow-up (as clinically indicated) were collected. COVID-19 disease severity was classified based on the presence and severity of CRS, graded using the Penn Grading Scale (Porter et. al., 2018), and the WHO ordinal scale (WHO Blueprint, 2020). We used Fisher's exact test and the Wilcoxon rank sum test to compare categorical and continuous variables. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. We accounted for differences in age and sex using multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards regression models.Results: Seventy-two CHIP mutations were detected in 56 (25%) of the 227 patients with COVID-19 that had PBMC available; median age 69 years (range; 42-99 years), 61% male. Fifteen (26%) patients had 2 CHIP mutations, while 1 patient had 3 CHIP mutations. Common mutations encountered included DNMT3A (32%) , TET2 (19%) , SF3B1 (8%) , ASXL1 (6%) , MPL (5%) , and TP53 (5%; Figure 1A). COVID-19 patients with CHIP were older in age (median 69 vs 57 years; p<0.0001) and had higher baseline MCP-1 (p=0.04) levels. However, there were no differences in sex, comorbidities, blood counts, IL1-b, IL6 and TNF-a levels between the two groups. The median follow-up for the entire cohort was 9 months. The relative change from baseline in blood counts and inflammatory markers (CRP and cytokines) during follow-up was similar in CHIP and non-CHIP patients, with the exception that COVID-19-onset neutropenia was more common in CHIP patients (8% vs 1%; p=0.017) compared to those without CHIP. At last follow up neutropenia had resolved in all patients.Both groups had comparable number of patients with CRS (61% CHIP vs 53% non-CHIP patients, p=0.354, Figure 1B), however, CHIP patients had more severe CRS (median Penn Grade 3 versus 2 in non-CHIP, p=0.018, Figure 1C). Based on the WHO ordinal scale, CHIP patients were more likely to experience hospitalization with severe disease and death (61% versus 45% in non-CHIP, p = 0.049). Moreover, COVID-19 CHIP patients experienced worse overall survival in comparison to patients without CHIP (median 13.1 months vs not reached, p<0.001, Figure 1D). This association remained consistent after adjusting for age and sex at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis (HR 3.15, 95% 1.32 - 7.55, p = 0.010). At last follow-up, 22 deaths were documented: 13 (23%) in patients with CHIP and 9 (5%) in the non-CHIP group (p=0.02), with the primary cause for mortality being hypoxic respiratory failure (62% in CHIP vs 44% non-CHIP, p=0.04).Conclusions: In this study, we observe an age-independent impact of CHIP on COVID-19 associated inflammatory morbidity (CRS) and mortality (hypoxemic respiratory failure). We are currently carrying out detailed single cell (ssDNA, RNA and ATAC-seq) and proteomic studies (O-link PEA assays) to better elucidate this pathophysiology. [Display omitted] DisclosuresPatnaik: Kura Oncology: Research Funding; StemLine: Research Funding.

The long lives of primates and the \u2018invariant rate of ageing\u2019 hypothesis

Is it possible to slow the rate of ageing, or do biological constraints limit its plasticity? We test the ‘invariant rate of ageing’ hypothesis, which posits that the rate of ageing is relatively fixed within species, with a collection of 39 human and nonhuman primate datasets across seven genera. We first recapitulate, in nonhuman primates, the highly regular relationship between life expectancy and lifespan equality seen in humans. We next demonstrate that variation in the rate of ageing within genera is orders of magnitude smaller than variation in pre-adult and age-independent mortality. Finally, we demonstrate that changes in the rate of ageing, but not other mortality parameters, produce striking, species-atypical changes in mortality patterns. Our results support the invariant rate of ageing hypothesis, implying biological constraints on how much the human rate of ageing can be slowed.

The sensitivity of a honeybee colony to worker mortality depends on season and resource availability

BackgroundHoneybees have extraordinary phenotypic plasticity in their senescence rate, making them a fascinating model system for the evolution of aging. Seasonal variation in senescence and extrinsic mortality results in a tenfold increase in worker life expectancy in winter as compared to summer. To understand the evolution of this remarkable pattern of aging, we must understand how individual longevity scales up to effects on the entire colony. In addition, threats to the health of honey bees and other social insects are typically measured at the individual level. To predict the effects of environmental change on social insect populations, we must understand how individual effects impact colony performance. We develop a matrix model of colony demographics to ask how worker age-dependent and age-independent mortality affect colony fitness and how these effects differ by seasonal conditions.ResultsWe find that there are seasonal differences in honeybee colony elasticity to both senescent and extrinsic worker mortality. Colonies are most elastic to extrinsic (age-independent) nurse and forager mortality during periods of higher extrinsic mortality and resource availability but most elastic to age-dependent mortality during periods of lower extrinsic mortality and lower resource availability.ConclusionsThese results suggest that seasonal changes in the strength of selection on worker senescence partly explain the observed pattern of seasonal differences in worker aging in honey bees. More broadly, these results extend our understanding of the role of extrinsic mortality in the evolution of senescence to social animals and improve our ability to model the effects of environmental change on social insect populations of economic or conservation concern.

Comparative Analysis of Experimental Data on the Effects of Different Polyphenols on Lifespan and Aging

Survival curves were approximated and analyzed based on experimental data on the effect of different polyphenolic compounds on mouse lifespan with the Gompertz model in its minimal variant, which excludes the parameters of sample heterogeneity and age-independent mortality. Vectors from the control data towards the experimental data were plotted on graphs with coordinates [logμ0 (the logarithm of initial mortality) and γ (the rate of aging)] and compared with a series of control points. The deviations were considered real when the tilt angles of the corresponding vectors differed from those of the logμ0 regressions on the γ coordinate based on the control data. The results of analysis of the published data have shown that resveratrol, tocopherol, polyphenol-containing grape skin extract, SkQ1 antioxidant, and metformin do not result in any differences between the control and experimental data beyond the limits expected in the comparison of different samples of the same control population. Unlike the indicated preparations, the complex polyphenol preparation BP-C3 acts differently and decelerates aging in female SHR mice. It is the antioxidant activity of BP-C3 that may partly be associated with this effect. We have determined its antioxidant capacity in vitro, and demonstrated its ability when administered in vivo to hinder a decrease in the total peroxide-decomposing activity in the erythrocytes of male BALB/c mice treated with 5-fluorouracil.

Age-Independent Adult Mortality in a Long-Lived Herb

Relative to mammals and birds, little is known about the mortality trajectories of perennial plants, as there are few long-term demographic studies following multiple yearly cohorts from birth to death. This is particularly important because if reproductively mature individuals show actuarial senescence, current estimations of life spans assuming constant survival would be incorrect. There is also a lack of studies documenting how life history trade-offs and disturbance influence the mortality trajectories of plants. We conducted Bayesian survival trajectory analyses (BaSTA) of a 33-year individual-based dataset of Pulsatilla vulgaris ssp. gotlandica. Mortality trajectories corresponded to “Type III” survivorship patterns, with rapidly decreasing annual mortality rates for young plants, but with constant mortality for reproductively mature individuals. We found trade-off effects resulting in a cost of growth for non-reproductive plants but no apparent cost of reproduction. Contrarily to our expectation, young plants that had previously shrunk in size had a lower mortality. However, accounting for trade-offs and disturbance only had minor effects on the mortality trajectories. We conclude that BaSTA is a useful tool for assessing mortality patterns in plants if only partial age information is available. Furthermore, if constant mortality is a general pattern in polycarpic plants, long-term studies may not be necessary to assess their age-dependent demography.

A 2D analysis of correlations between the parameters of the Gompertz–Makeham model (or law?) of relationships between aging, mortality, and longevity

When mortality (μ), aging rate (γ) and age (t) are treated according to the Gompertz model μ(t) = μ0eγt (GM), any mean age corresponds to a manifold of paired reciprocally changing μ0 and γ. Therefore, any noisiness of data used to derive GM parameters makes them negatively correlated. Besides this artifactual factor of the Strehler-Mildvan correlation (SMC), other factors emerge when the age-independent mortality C modifies survival according to the Gompertz-Makeham model μ(t) = C+μ0eγt (GMM), or body resources are partitioned between survival and protection from aging [the compensation effect of mortality (CEM)]. Theoretical curves in (γ, logμ0) coordinates show how μ0 decreases when γ increases upon a constant mean age. Within a species-specific range of γ, such "isoage" curves look as nearly parallel straight lines. The slopes of lines constructed by applying GM to survival curves modeled according to GMM upon changes in C are greater than the isoage slopes. When CEM is modeled, the slopes are still greater. Based on these observations, CEM is shown to contribute to SMC associated with sex differences in lifespan, with the effects of several life-extending drugs, and with recent trends in survival/mortality patterns in high-life-expectancy countries; whereas changes in C underlie differences between even high-life-expectancy countries, not only between high- and low-life-expectancy countries. Such interpretations make sense only if GM is not merely a statistical model, but rather reflects biological realities. Therefore, GM is discussed as derivable by applying certain constraints to a natural law termed the generalized Gompertz-Makeham law.

Slower senescence in a wild insect population in years with a more female-biased sex ratio.

Life-history theories of senescence are based on the existence of a trade-off in resource allocation between body maintenance and reproduction. This putative trade-off means that environmental and demographic factors affecting the costs of reproduction should be associated with changes in patterns of senescence. In many species, competition among males is a major component of male reproductive investment, and hence variation in the sex ratio is expected to affect rates of senescence. We test this prediction using nine years of demographic and behavioural data from a wild population of the annual field cricket Gryllus campestris. Over these generations, the sex ratio at adulthood varied substantially, from years with an equal number of each sex to years with twice as many females as males. Consistent with the predictions of theory, we found that in years with a greater proportion of females, both sexes experienced a slower increase in mortality rate with age. Additionally, phenotypic senescence in males was slower in years when there were more females. Sex ratio did not affect the baseline mortality rate in males, but females suffered higher age-independent mortality rates when males were in short supply.

Robustness of the reproductive number estimates in vector-borne disease systems.

BackgroundThe required efforts, feasibility and predicted success of an intervention strategy against an infectious disease are partially determined by its basic reproduction number, R0. In its simplest form R0 can be understood as the product of the infectious period, the number of infectious contacts and the per-contact transmission probability, which in the case of vector-transmitted diseases necessarily extend to the vector stages. As vectors do not usually recover from infection, they remain infectious for life, which places high significance on the vector’s life expectancy. Current methods for estimating the R0 for a vector-borne disease are mostly derived from compartmental modelling frameworks assuming constant vector mortality rates. We hypothesised that some of the assumptions underlying these models can lead to unrealistic high vector life expectancies with important repercussions for R0 estimates.Methodology and principal findingsHere we used a stochastic, individual-based model which allowed us to directly measure the number of secondary infections arising from one index case under different assumptions about vector mortality. Our results confirm that formulas based on age-independent mortality rates can overestimate R0 by nearly 100% compared to our own estimate derived from first principles. We further provide a correction factor that can be used with a standard R0 formula and adjusts for the discrepancies due to erroneous vector age distributions.ConclusionVector mortality rates play a crucial role for the success and general epidemiology of vector-transmitted diseases. Many modelling efforts intrinsically assume these to be age-independent, which, as clearly demonstrated here, can lead to severe over-estimation of the disease’s reproduction number. Our results thus re-emphasise the importance of obtaining field-relevant and species-dependent vector mortality rates, which in turn would facilitate more realistic intervention impact predictions.

Complexity of the relationship between life expectancy and overlap of lifespans.

Longevity has long been recognised as a key facilitator of reciprocal altruism because repeated cooperation of partners hinges on mutual survival. Although demographic tools can be used to quantify mutual survival and expected overlapping lifespans, studies on the evolutionary theory of cooperation take only limited advantage of demography. Overlap of lifespans depends on variation in survival across ages and can be high or low independently of high or low life expectancies. Here we develop formal demographic measures to study the complex relationships between shared life expectancy of two birth cohort peers, the proportion of their lives that they can expect to overlap, and longevity. We simulate age-specific mortality schedules using a Siler model to reveal how infant and senescent mortality, along with age-independent mortality, affect the relationship between the proportion of life shared and life expectancy. We find that while the proportion of life shared can vary vastly for similar life expectancies, almost all changes to mortality schedules that result in higher life expectancies also result in higher proportions of life shared. A distinct exception occurs if life expectancy increases due to lowering the rate of senescence. In this case the proportion of life shared decreases. Our work shows that almost all selective pressures that result in higher life expectancies also result in a larger proportion of life shared. Therefore, selective forces that extend life also improve the chances that a cooperative system would be stable in terms of reciprocal interactions. Since reciprocal interactions may also reduce mortality and result in a feedback loop with the evolution of longevity, our measures and findings can be used for future cross-species comparisons that aim to disentangle predecessor and successor in the evolution of longevity and cooperation.

The Rarity of Survival to Old Age Does Not Drive the Evolution of Senescence

The evolution of senescence is often explained by arguing that, in nature, few individuals survive to be old and hence it is evolutionarily unimportant what happens to organisms when they are old. A corollary to this idea is that extrinsically imposed mortality, because it reduces the chance of surviving to be old, favors the evolution of senescence. We show that these ideas, although widespread, are incorrect. Selection leading to senescence does not depend directly on survival to old age, but on the shape of the stable age distribution, and we discuss the implications of this important distinction. We show that the selection gradient on mortality declines with age even in the hypothetical case of zero mortality, when survivorship does not decline. Changing the survivorship function by imposing age independent mortality has no affect on the selection gradients. A similar result exists for optimization models: age independent mortality does not change the optimal result. We propose an alternative, brief explanation for the decline of selection gradients, and hence the evolution of senescence.

The role of climate change in the widespread mortality of holm oak in open woodlands of Southwestern Spain

Forest decline and increasing tree mortality are of global concern and the identification of the causes is necessary to develop preventive measures. Global warming is an emerging factor responsible for the increasing tree mortality in drought-prone ecosystems. In the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, Mediterranean holm oak open woodlands currently undergo large-scale population-level tree die-off. In this region, temperature and aridity have increased during recent decades, but the possible role of climate change in the current oak mortality has not been investigated.To assess the role of climate change in oak die-off in managed open woodlands in southwestern Spain, we analyzed climate change-related signals in century-long tree ring chronologies of dead holm oaks. We examined the high/low-frequency variability in growth and the relationship between growth and climate.Similar to other Mediterranean forests, growth was favored by precipitation from autumn of the year prior to ring formation to spring of the year of ring formation, whereas high temperatures during spring limited growth. Since the 1970s, the intensity of the high-frequency response to water availability increased simultaneously with temperature and aridity. The growth trends matched those of climatic changes. Growth suppressions occurred during droughts in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Widespread stand-level, age-independent mortality occurred since 2005 and affected trees that cannot be considered old for the species standards.The close relationship between growth and climate indicate that climate change strongly controlled the growth patterns. This suggests that harsher climatic conditions, especially increased aridity, affected the tree performance and could have played a significant role in the mortality process. Climate change may have exacerbated or predisposed trees to the impact of other factors (e.g. intense management and pathogens). These observations could suggest a similar future increase in oak mortality which may occur in more northern oak open woodlands if aridity further increases.

Sensitivity of model-based human mortality measures to exclusion of the Makeham or the frailty parameter

Adult human mortality is well captured by a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model that accounts for the exponential increase in individual hazards, the existence of age-independent mortality component, and unobserved heterogeneity in the study population. The article studies the impact of neglecting statistically significant extrinsic mortality or frailty on human mortality measures: aggregate indicators like life expectancy, life disparity, entropy, and the Gini coefficient are little affected while the rates of individual and population aging, the modal age at death, and temporary life expectancy can be substantially distorted. Trifon I. MISSOV, Assistant Professor, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany and Institute of Sociology and Demography, University of Rostock, Rostock, Germany. E-mail: missov@demogr.mpg.de . Laszlo NEMETH, Guest Researcher, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. E-mail: nemeth@demogr.mpg.de .

Stability analysis of a model gene network links aging, stress resistance, and negligible senescence.

Several animal species are considered to exhibit what is called negligible senescence, i.e. they do not show signs of functional decline or any increase of mortality with age. Recent studies in naked mole rat and long-lived sea urchins showed that these species do not alter their gene-expression profiles with age as much as other organisms do. This is consistent with exceptional endurance of naked mole rat tissues to various genotoxic stresses. We conjectured, therefore, that the lifelong transcriptional stability of an organism may be a key determinant of longevity. We analyzed the stability of a simple genetic-network model and found that under most common circumstances, such a gene network is inherently unstable. Over a time it undergoes an exponential accumulation of gene-regulation deviations leading to death. However, should the repair systems be sufficiently effective, the gene network can stabilize so that gene damage remains constrained along with mortality of the organism. We investigate the relationship between stress-resistance and aging and suggest that the unstable regime may provide a mathematical basis for the Gompertz “law” of aging in many species. At the same time, this model accounts for the apparently age-independent mortality observed in some exceptionally long-lived animals.