Aftershock Locations Research Articles

Majority of Ruptures in Large Continental Strike-Slip Earthquakes Are Unilateral: Permissive Evidence for Hybrid Brittle-to-Dynamic Ruptures

Abstract Finite-element models of neotectonics require transform faults to rupture seismically even where preseismic shear stresses are low, presumably by dynamic-weakening mechanisms. A long-standing objection is that, if a rupture initiated at an asperity with high static friction stresses, which then transitioned to low dynamic-weakening stresses, local stress drop would be near total and on the order of 80 MPa, which is 4×–40× greater than observed. But the 5 Mw ≥ 7.8 transform earthquakes since 2000 initially ruptured on the branch faults of small net slip (Stein and Bird, 2024). If the slip initiates on a branch fault with different slip physics and no dynamic weakening, this solves the stress-drop problem. We propose that most large shallow earthquakes are hybrid ruptures, which begin on branch faults of small slip with high shear stresses, and then continue propagating on a connected dynamically weakened fault of large slip, even where shear stresses are low. One prediction of this model is that most large shallow ruptures should be unilateral. We test this prediction against the 100 largest (m ≥ 6.49) shallow continental strike-slip earthquakes 1977–2022, using information from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor and International Seismological Centre catalogs. The differences in time and location between the epicenter and the epicentroid define a horizontal “migration” velocity vector for the evolving centroid of each rupture. Early aftershock locations are summarized by a five-parameter elliptical model. Using the geometric relations between these (and mapped traces of active faults) and guided by a symmetrical decision table, we classified 55 ruptures as apparently unilateral, 30 as bilateral, and 15 as ambiguous. Our finding that a majority (55%–70%) of these ruptures are unilateral permits the interpretation that a majority of ruptures are hybrids, both in terms of geometry (branch fault to transform) and in terms of the physics of their fault slip.

Assessing the Predictive Power of GPS-Based Ground Deformation Data for Aftershock Forecasting

Abstract We present a machine learning approach for aftershock forecasting of the Japanese earthquakes catalog. Our method takes as sole input the ground surface deformation as measured by Global Positioning System (GPS) stations on the day of the mainshock to predict aftershock location. The quality of data heavily relies on the density of GPS stations: the predictive power is lost when the mainshocks occur far from measurement stations, as in offshore regions. Despite this fact and the small number of samples and the large number of parameters, we are able to limit overfitting, which shows that this new approach is very promising.

Multi‐Scale Seismic Imaging of the Ridgecrest, CA, Region With Waveform Inversion of Regional and Dense Array Data

AbstractWe develop an inversion procedure for deriving multi‐scale velocity models with waveform inversions of earthquake and ambient noise data at multi‐frequency bands recorded by regional and dense sensor configurations. The method is applied for the area around the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake rupture zones, utilizing data recorded by regional stations and dense 2D and 1D arrays with station spacings of ∼5 km and ∼100 m, respectively. Starting with regional Vp, Vs models and locations of Ridgecrest aftershocks, the velocity models and event locations are improved iteratively by inversions of waveforms recorded by regional stations and the 2D array, using a minimum spectral element size of ∼600 m. Waveforms from local events recorded by dense 1D arrays across the M7.1 rupture zone with frequencies of up to 10 Hz are used to resolve small‐scale features of the rupture zone and shallow crust with a local spectral element size of 80 m. The refined models provide self‐consistent descriptions of the rupture zone and the shallow crust embedded in the regional structures. The results reveal pronounced low Vs and high Vp/Vs in the M6.4 and M7.1 rupture zones coinciding with concentrations of seismicity, and also around the Garlock fault and in several local basins. We also observe clear velocity contrasts across the Garlock fault with polarity reversals along strike and with depth. The obtained multi‐scale velocity models can be used to improve derivations of earthquake source properties, simulations of dynamic ruptures and ground motions, and the understanding of fault and tectonic processes in the region.

The 2013 Mw 6.2 Shonbeh (Kaki) earthquake (Zagros-Iran): seismo-tectonic implications for the Kazerun shear transition zone from high-resolution aftershock and InSAR data analysis

SUMMARY The aim of this study is to investigate the aftershock sequence data recorded by a dense temporary seismological network deployed in the epicentral area of the 2013 April 9 Shonbeh (Kaki) earthquake, located in the south of the Simply Folded Belt of the Zagros (Iran). For a comprehensive understanding, coseismic displacements of the Shonbeh earthquake have been investigated using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data. The epicentral distribution of high-resolution relocated aftershocks shows NW–SE and N–S trending of seismicity. The aftershocks are confined between ∼3 and ∼14 km depth, which implies that the rupture occurred mostly within the sedimentary cover beside the fault parameters retrieved from InSAR modelling. Projection of precisely located aftershocks on NE-oriented section and InSAR ground displacement data are consistent with both NW-trending NE- and SW-dipping fault segments. We observe a NNW–SSE right-lateral strike-slip motions that accommodate oblique convergence and differential motion between the North and Central Zagros. The spatial pattern and focal mechanisms of aftershocks are consistent with a distributed deformation between NW–SE trending reverse and N–S trending right-lateral strike-slip fault segments in the south of the Kazerun transition zone that accommodates a wide shear zone.

Monitoring the Workflow of Earthquake by Using Machine Learning

This study explores the innovative application of machine learning techniques in monitoring and analyzing the workflow associated with earthquakes. The primary objective is to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of earthquake detection, prediction, and response mechanisms the development of machine learning technology enables more robust real-time earthquake monitoring through automated implementations. However, the application of machine learning to earthquake location problems faces challenges in regions with limited available training data. This paper proposes a machine learning-based approach to monitor seismic workflows efficiently. We apply various Machine Learning algorithms, including deep learning neural networks and decision trees, to process and interpret vast amounts of seismic data. These algorithms were trained on historical earthquake records to identify patterns and anomalies that precede seismic events. Our approach not only focused on the detection of seismic activities but also on the prediction of potential aftershock locations and magnitudes. Earthquake monitoring and response systems play a crucial role in mitigating potential damages and ensuring rapid response to seismic events. Traditional methods rely on sensor networks and manual analysis, often leading to delays in detection and response. The system leverages real-time data from seismic sensors, incorporating advanced machine learning algorithms for data analysis and pattern recognition. By employing deep learning models, such as convolution neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), the system can detect and classify seismic activities accurately. Additionally, anomaly detection techniques enable the identification of unusual seismic patterns that might indicate impending earthquakes or aftershocks. The system integrates geographical information systems (GIS) to map the seismic activities spatially, aiding in the visualization and understanding of seismic patterns across regions. The machine learning models are trained on historical seismic data to enhance their predictive capabilities and adaptability to varying seismic behaviors. This proposed system offers a real-time monitoring solution that can assist in early earthquake detection, accurate event classification, and timely response coordination. Its ability to continuously learn from incoming data ensures adaptability to changing seismic behaviors, thereby improving overall efficiency and reliability in earthquake monitoring workflows.

Literature review on aftershock and earthquake prediction models aided by NLP summarization and ontology extraction techniques

The field of aftershock prediction has evolved over the years, transitioning from traditional statistical models to more advanced machine learning and deep learning methodologies. The USGS relies on the Reasenberg and Jones (1989, 1994) statistical model which subsequent researchers have refined to adapt to various tectonic regimes globally. Meanwhile, DeVries et al. (2018) explored the potential of Deep Learning in predicting aftershock locations, albeit facing critique for potentially over-complicating the issue. Other researchers have applied machine learning algorithms, such as in predicting aftershock patterns following the Kermanshah Earthquake in Iran, demonstrating the capability of machine learning to outperform traditional Coulomb maps. The dynamic discourse among these varying methodologies highlights the ongoing efforts to improve aftershock prediction, aiming at better preparedness and response strategies in seismic-prone regions.

Transient Deformation Excited by the 2021 M7.4 Maduo (China) Earthquake: Evidence of a Deep Shear Zone

AbstractWe use Sentinel‐1 and ALOS‐2 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data to investigate the mechanisms of coseismic and postseismic deformation due to the 2021 M7.4 Maduo (China) earthquake. We present a refined coseismic slip model constrained by the rupture trace and precisely located aftershocks. The InSAR time series corrected for the atmospheric and decorrelation noise reveal postseismic line of sight displacements up to ∼0.1 m. The displacements are discontinuous along the fault trace, indicating shallow afterslip and velocity‐strengthening friction in the top 2–3 km of the upper crust. The magnitude of shallow afterslip is however insufficient to compensate for the coseismic slip deficit, implying substantial off‐fault yielding. The observed surface deformation does not exhibit obvious features that could be attributed to poroelastic effects. We developed a fully coupled model that accounts for both stress‐driven creep on a deep localized shear zone and viscoelastic relaxation in the bulk of the lower crust. The mid‐ to near‐field data can be reasonably well explained by deep afterslip and/or non‐Maxwellian visco‐elasticity. Our results suggest a power‐law stress exponent of ∼4–4.5 assuming a power‐law rheology, and transient and steady‐state viscosities of 1018 and 1019 Pa s, respectively, assuming a bi‐viscous (Burgers) rheology. However, a good fit to the GNSS data cannot be achieved assuming the bulk viscoelastic relaxation alone, and requires a contribution of deep afterlip and/or a localized shear zone extending through much of the lower crust.

The seismogenic structure of March 2021 Tyrnavos (central Greece) doublet (Mw 6.3 andMw 6.0), constrained by aftershock locations and geodetic data

SUMMARYThe Northern Thessaly Basin in central Greece ranks amongst the most well pronounced extensional (graben) basins in the backarc Aegean Sea region, with well-mapped faults having an ∼E–W orientation, compatible with the ongoing predominant ∼N–S extension. The southern margin of the basin is bounded by major faults associated with strong (M6 to M7) earthquakes, whereas along its northern margin, strong events are more scarce, in the documented catalogues. Along this northern margin, a weak, albeit persisting foreshock activity, culminated within 3 d, to an Mw 6.3 earthquake on 3 March 2021 associated with a 15-km-long NE dipping fault segment. It was followed the next day, by the second Mw 6.0 main shock associated with a 13-km-long NE dipping fault segment and 9 d later by an Mw 5.5 earthquake associated with an 8-km-long SW dipping fault segment, with its aligned epicentres, showcasing the cascade type activation of adjacent fault segments. The sequence, evolved to be very productive, with aftershocks extending ∼50 km along a ∼NW–SE trending narrow seismic zone. All events indicate pure normal faulting, with an NNE–SSW oriented extensional axis, oblique to our previous consensus of the prevalence of ∼N–S extension. This observation documents that inherited fault fabric can be reactivated within the modern tectonic stress field. We use high-quality seismological data, alongside Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) methodology and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data, to study the temporal and spatial evolution of the sequence, and to provide inferred kinematic models that describe the complexity of the seismic process, in terms of heterogeneous slip distribution, activated fault planes, fault geometry and displacement field. Cross-sections show that the activity defines the crustal seismogenic layer at depths between 5 and 10 km, associated with low-angle fault segments dipping to the NE. Other faults, both antithetic and secondary ones, appear active and accommodated aftershocks clusters. Using our preferred finite fault source model, we calculated the changes of Coulomb failure stress on the neighbouring faults.

Properties of the Petrinja (Croatia) earthquake sequence of 2020–2021 – Results of seismological research for the first six months of activity

We present locations of almost 14,000 events from the first six months of the Petrinja (Croatia) earthquakes sequence (mainshock 29 December 2020, Mw 6.4). The catalogue is estimated complete for ML ≥ 1.20. Initially sparse local seismograph network was densified a week after the mainshock, which reduced uncertainties of focal locations by about 75%. Source-specific station corrections were used in an iterative location scheme. The hypocentres were located with 30 different sets of velocity models and program control parameters in order to gain insight into the epistemic uncertainty of each earthquake location. The bulk of epicentres are located close to, and to the SE of the causative, dextral strike-slip Petrinja fault, but considerable activity has been triggered on smaller faults, up to 25 km away. About a half of the 78 first-motion polarity focal mechanism solutions (FMS) from the full first year of activity were found to have mechanisms similar to the foreshock, the mainshock and the largest of aftershocks, while the rest indicated almost pure reverse faulting. Strike-slip mechanisms occurred more often close to the main fault. The P-axes of FMS for aftershocks were found to be on the average rotated by 16° clockwise with respect to the P-axis of the mainshock, regardless of the style of faulting. The spatial distribution of aftershocks coincides very well with the areas of positive Coulomb stress change caused by the mainshock rupture. The inferred cut-off seismogenic depth in the area (7–10 km), estimated on the basis of published values of the geothermal gradient and the assumption of predominantly granitic upper crust, is considerably shallower than the depth of the deepest reliably located aftershocks (16–18 km). This fact may be explained by considering ophiolite-dominated crust, and by increased strain rate during the sequence, which raises the ability of crustal rocks for brittle failure.

Subduction transition and relation to upper plate faults revealed by the 2019 Mw 6.0 and 6.2 Costa Rica-Panama border earthquakes

We study the May 12, 2019, Mw 6.0 (hereafter Laurel earthquake) and a June 26, 2019, Mw 6.2 (hereafter Manaca earthquake) earthquakes located in a complex strike-slip to subduction transition zone in the Costa Rica-Panama border using a dense local network of broadband and strong-motion instruments, concluding that the Laurel mainshock data (hypocenter, centroid, and focal mechanism), concurrently with its aftershock distribution, indicate an almost vertical north-south oriented, dextral strike-slip fault. This fault ruptured at depths between 10 and 30 km in the lower crust of Panama Microplate and the geometry implies a shallow influence of the Panama fracture zone. Meanwhile, for the Manaca earthquake, the aftershocks are concentrated on a 25 km long NW-SE trend, with a depth between 20 and 45 km. One of the nodal planes of the focal mechanism of the Manaca earthquake, as well as the centroid location coincides with the aftershock locations trend, supporting the hypothesis that a nearby steeply dipping sinistral strike-slip fault originated this event. Earthquake locations and focal mechanism analyses of collected data from global and local earthquake catalogs suggest that the strong coupling caused by the subduction of the Cocos Ridge and Nazca plate is largely accommodated by outer arc crustal block migration with a combination of NW-SE sinistral and N-S dextral strike-slip faults deforming the overriding Panama Microplate. Sinistral motion of crustal blocks, on the Costa Rica side, are consistent with observed motions along with the Azuero-Sona fault system and Coiba Faults on the Panamanian side.

Preliminary report of the September 5, 2022 MS 6.8 Luding earthquake, Sichuan, China

The 2022 MS 6.8 Luding earthquake is the strongest earthquake in Sichuan Province, Western China, since the 2017 MS 7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. It occurred on the Moxi fault in the southeastern segment of the Xianshuihe fault, a tectonically active and mountainous region with severe secondary earthquake disasters. To better understand the seismogenic mechanism and provide scientific support for future hazard mitigation, we summarize the preliminary results of the Luding earthquake, including seismotectonic background, seismicity and mainshock source characteristics and aftershock properties, and direct and secondary damage associated with the mainshock. The peak ground displacements in the NS and EW directions observed by the nearest GNSS station SCCM are ∼35 mm and ∼55 mm, respectively, resulting in the maximum coseismic dislocation of 20 mm along the NWW direction, which is consistent with the sinistral slip on the Xianshuihe fault. Back-projection of teleseismic P waves suggest that the mainshock rupture propagated toward south-southeast. The seismic intensity of the mainshock estimated from the back-projection results indicates a Mercalli scale of VIII or above near the ruptured area, consistent with the results from instrumental measurements and field surveys. Numerous aftershocks were reported, with the largest being MS 4.5. Aftershock locations (up to September 18, 2022) exhibit 3 clusters spanning an area of 100 km long and 30 km wide. The magnitude and rate of aftershocks decreased as expected, and the depths became shallower with time. The mainshock and two aftershocks show left-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms. For the aftershock sequence, the b-value from the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship, h-value, and p-value for Omori’s law for aftershock decay are 0.81, 1.4, and 1.21, respectively, indicating that this is a typical mainshock-aftershock sequence. The low b-value implies high background stress in the hypocenter region. Analysis from remote sensing satellite images and UAV data shows that the distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides was consistent with the aftershock area. Numerous small-size landslides with limited volumes were revealed, which damaged or buried the roads and severely hindered the rescue process.

Rupture Segmentation of the 14 August 2021 Mw 7.2 Nippes, Haiti, Earthquake Using Aftershock Relocation from a Local Seismic Deployment

ABSTRACT The 14 August 2021 Mw 7.2 Haiti earthquake struck 11 yr after the devastating 2010 event within the Enriquillo Plantain Garden (EPG) fault zone in the Southern peninsula of Haiti. Space geodetic results show that the rupture is composed of both left-lateral strike-slip and thrust motion, similar to the 2010 rupture; but aftershock locations from a local short-period network are too diffuse to precisely delineate the segments that participated in this rupture. A few days after the mainshocks, we installed 12 broadband stations in the epicentral area. Here, we use data from those stations in combination with four local Raspberry Shakes stations that were already in place as part of a citizen seismology experiment to precisely relocate 2528 aftershocks from August to December 2021, and derive 1D P- and S-crustal velocity models for this region. We show that the aftershocks delineate three north-dipping structures with different strikes, located to the north of the EPG fault. In addition, two smaller aftershock clusters occurred on the EPG fault near the hypocenter area, indicative of triggered seismicity. Focal mechanisms are in agreement with coseismic slip inversion from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data with nodal planes that are consistent with the transpressional structures illustrated by the aftershock zones.

Physical Properties of the Crust Influence Aftershock Locations

AbstractAftershocks do not uniformly surround a mainshock, and instead occur in spatial clusters. Spatially variable physical properties of the crust may influence the spatial distribution of aftershocks. I study four aftershock sequences in Southern California (1992 Landers, 1999 Hector Mine, 2010 El Mayor—Cucapah, and 2019 Ridgecrest) to investigate which physical properties are spatially correlated with aftershock occurrence. I find that aftershocks correlate with several properties, including measures of stress and stress change from the mainshock, fault structure, kinematics, seismic velocity, and heat flow. Aftershock spatial density exhibits an order of magnitude or more variation as a function of these properties. I determine simple empirical relations between each of the properties and the aftershock spatial density, and use these relations to construct new spatial models that describe aftershock locations. The new spatial models are a significant improvement over a simple base model, but do not fully capture the dense spatial clustering of aftershocks. Numerous spatially varying physical properties exhibit no (or poor) correlation with aftershock spatial density, including temperature, rock composition, and rheological properties that might be expected to control aftershock occurrence. These results suggest that while spatially variable physical properties appear to influence aftershock locations, more work is necessary in order to establish the connections between aftershock occurrence and the causative physical properties.

Fault Orientation and Relocated Seismicity Associated with the 12 December 2018 Mw 4.4 Decatur, Tennessee, Earthquake Sequence

AbstractSmall-to-moderate size earthquakes have occurred along the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) for decades, resulting in the second highest seismicity rate in Central and Eastern United States following the New Madrid Seismic Zone. However, the underlying tectonic setting of seismicity in the ETSZ remains unclear. The recent December 2018 Mw 4.4 earthquake near Decatur, Tennessee, provides an opportunity to study one of the largest recent events in this region, after the 2003 Mw 4.6 Fort Payne, Alabama, earthquake. Here, we use a matched filter technique to detect additional microearthquakes around the Mw 4.4 mainshock. We create templates from 967 cataloged earthquakes spanning over 15 yr (January 2005–July 2020) in the ETSZ. These templates are used to detect missing events four weeks before to four weeks after the mainshock. We calculate the magnitudes of new events using principle component fitting between templates and newly detected events. Two relocation algorithms, XCORLOC and hypoDD, are used comparatively to relocate detected events. We construct focal mechanism solutions for earthquakes around the mainshock using HASHpy, and refine the focal mechanism and depth solution of the mainshock using the cut-and-paste method. The mainshock appears to have occurred at a depth of approximately 5–6 km, which is deeper than the decollement (4–5 km) that separates the Grenville-age basement rock and the Paleozoic sedimentary rock. In addition, the mainshock appears to rupture bilaterally along an east–northeast-trending strike-slip fault, which is consistent with the relocated aftershock locations and one of the nodal planes of the mainshock. The occurrence of the 2018 Mw 4.4 mainshock at a relatively shallow depth and its close proximity to the Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant highlight the need to reevaluate seismic hazard associated with moderate-size earthquakes along the ETSZ.

Source Parameters of the Mw 5.7 Pica Crustal Earthquake in Northern Chile

Abstract On 10 September, 2008, an Mw 5.7 earthquake occurred under the Central Valley of northern Chile near the town of Pica at a depth of ∼33 km within the continental crust of the South America plate. We find this earthquake to be a high stress-drop, reverse-oblique event that generated unusually high ground accelerations of up to 0.67g. Overall, its observed ground motion intensities are considerably larger than those predicted by ground motion models, particularly at short periods. The source properties inferred through waveform modeling indicate reverse-oblique fault motion on a ∼75 km2 plane dipping to the northeast, which is corroborated by the located aftershock distribution. Stress-drop values of the mainshock and larger aftershocks were estimated through S-wave spectrum modeling, with values up to ∼250 MPa for the mainshock. The event occurred in a cold section of the continental crust under the Central Valley, and its fault kinematics and orientation are consistent with the dominant style of faulting and stress field under the neighboring Coastal Cordillera. Although our recurrence analysis shows that crustal events in the region occur at a lower rate than interplate and inslab events, crustal events of similar or higher magnitude than the Pica earthquake have occurred, on average, approximately once every three years in northern Chile, which could pose an important hazard to nearby populations or critical infrastructure.

The Gorgona island, Colombia, earthquake of 10 September 2007 (Mw 6.8); rupture process and implications on the seismic hazard in the region

The subduction zone in southern Colombia and northern Ecuador has been the site of significant events in the area that broke the great 1906 earthquake in Ecuador. The 2007 earthquake on Gorgona Island is located within this area, presenting a normal-type focal mechanism and a moment magnitude Mw 6.8. This event is due to the compressive stresses exerted on the continental plate of South America by the Nazca oceanic plate. We performed a kinematic inversion source process of the Gorgona earthquake. Our results show the main slip patch at the hypocenter and a secondary slip release deeper at SW on the fault plane, which agrees with the location of aftershocks; the source time function obtained reflects these energy releases with a total duration of 15 s. We also analyzed the stress state field in this region using the focal mechanism of its early aftershock sequence, obtaining an extensive regime with an azimuth Shmin of 108° and NW-SE direction. The average interseismic coupling in this convergent margin zone is not so high as in the southern areas. Nevertheless, observations of this kind of seismicity and GPS studies in the upper plate of a subduction zone are essential in understanding earthquake cycles and, perhaps, in anticipating slip distributions in future subduction events.

Seismological Characterization of the 2021 Yangbi Foreshock‐Mainshock Sequence, Yunnan, China: More than a Triggered Cascade

AbstractThe 2021 Mw 6.1 Yangbi earthquake in southwest China is preceded by three major foreshocks: 05/18 Mw 4.3, 05/19 Mw 4.6, and 05/21 Mw 5.2. It provides a valuable chance to revisit two end‐member foreshock models: cascade‐up and pre‐slip models. We first determine the fault structure with relocated aftershocks and the focal mechanisms obtained from a multipoint‐source inversion. We find that the mainshock and two smaller foreshocks occur on an unmapped near‐vertical fault, and the largest foreshock occurs on a mapped stepover fault that dips to northeast. Second, for each major foreshock, we estimate and delineate the rupture area based on its aftershock location and a spectral ratio analysis. Based on the inferred rupture model, we finally calculate the evolution of Coulomb stress and examine potential interactions between each major event. Results show that the Yangbi sequence can be explained by the cascade triggering mechanism, while we also find evidence for aseismic slip that contributes to the triggering process: the first foreshock is preceded by a short‐term localized cluster, three repeater sequences are detected in the foreshock period, and the aftershock zones expand logarithmically with time. The Yangbi mainshock is probably triggered by multiple major foreshocks through both seismic and aseismic processes. This detailed seismological characterization of Yangbi sequence lends supports for an improved understanding on the foreshock mechanism: (a) the controlling mechanisms are not limited to cascade‐up and pre‐slip. Instead, multiple mechanisms can operate together; and (b) aseismic slip does not always provide more deterministic information on the mainshock.

Refining the Regional Aftershocks Catalog of the Ambon Earthquake Mw 6.5 on 26 September 2019 using manual picking and a non-linear algorithm: Preliminary Result

A destructive earthquake with magnitude Mw 6.5 occurred in Ambon, Indonesia, on 26 September 2019. This earthquake generated an aftershock sequence. In this study, we determined the location of the aftershock sequence using a non-linear algorithm from the Non-Linear Location (NonLinLoc) program. The catalog and waveform data were collected using 11 seismographs from BMKG regional network located around the Maluku archipelago. The data was recorded between 26 September and 18 October 2019. We have manually picked the P-and-S wave phase by using Seisgram2K software. In our preliminary result, we have located about 1,300 events of aftershock sequence with about 8,500 phases of P and S waves. Overall, the location of the focus depth of the aftershock sequence is dominantly distributed in between 5 - 25 km. Approximately ~70% of the distribution of aftershock locations show a North-South (N-S) oriented pattern from west Seram to Ambon Islands. Meanwhile, about ~20% of the aftershock’s locations are distributed around Ambon Island. Our ongoing and future study is to determine accurate hypocentre location derived from double-difference hypocenter relocation with waveform cross-correlation.

Very Early Postseismic Deformation Following the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel Earthquake, Chile Revealed From Kinematic GPS

AbstractThe very early phase of postseismic deformation spanning the first few hours is difficult to capture using daily Global Positioning System (GPS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar. Using kinematic GPS instead, we analyzed the surface deformation that occurred during the first 3 days immediately after the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake. Particularly, the displacements at station PFRJ reached 2–3 cm during the first 2 hr, and grew to 6.1 cm after 12 hr from the origin time. We hence imaged the afterslip evolution by inverting kinematic GPS and found that the very early afterslip was mainly concentrated around the hypocenter. The early afterslip evolved to be distributed along three main slip zones along the strike, which was complementary to the coseismic slip zones in space. The location of aftershocks was highly consistent with the spatiotemporal evolution of early afterslip, suggesting that the occurrence of aftershocks may be influenced by afterslip in the very early postseismic period.

Solving three major biases of the ETAS model to improve forecasts of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence

Strong earthquakes cause aftershock sequences that are clustered in time according to a power decay law, and in space along their extended rupture, shaping a typically elongate pattern of aftershock locations. A widely used approach to model earthquake clustering, the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, shows three major biases. First, the conventional ETAS approach assumes isotropic spatial triggering, which stands in conflict with observations and geophysical arguments for strong earthquakes. Second, the spatial kernel has unlimited extent, allowing smaller events to exert disproportionate trigger potential over an unrealistically large area. Third, the ETAS model assumes complete event records and neglects inevitable short-term aftershock incompleteness as a consequence of overlapping coda waves. These three aspects can substantially bias the parameter estimation and lead to underestimated cluster sizes. In this article, we combine the approach of Grimm et al. (Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2021), who introduced a generalized anisotropic and locally restricted spatial kernel, with the ETAS-Incomplete (ETASI) time model of Hainzl (Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2021), to define an ETASI space-time model with flexible spatial kernel that solves the abovementioned shortcomings. We apply different model versions to a triad of forecasting experiments of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, and evaluate the prediction quality with respect to cluster size, largest aftershock magnitude and spatial distribution. The new model provides the potential of more realistic simulations of on-going aftershock activity, e.g. allowing better predictions of the probability and location of a strong, damaging aftershock, which might be beneficial for short term risk assessment and disaster response.