African Financial Market Research Articles

Improving realised volatility forecast for emerging markets

AbstractAccurate forecasting of realised volatility is essential for financial risk management and investment decision-making in emerging markets, taking the South African financial market as a benchmark. This study examines the predictive performance of four prominent models: HAR (Heterogeneous AutoRegressive), realised GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity), Recurrent Conditional Heteroskedasticity (RECH), and the Rough Fractional Stochastic Volatility (RFSV) models. These models are specifically tailored to capture the complex dynamics and long-range dependence observed in financial time series. We illustrate the challenges and limitations of these models outside the context of established markets. Our empirical findings reveal unique strengths for each model. The HAR model excels in capturing long-term volatility patterns, while realised GARCH models effectively capture volatility clustering and persistence. RECH model showcases their ability to forecast Value-at-Risk, while the RFSV model successfully captures irregular and long-memory characteristics. We provide empirical evidence that the South African financial market is rough. Moreover, this study provides valuable insights into forecasting realised volatility in the South African market, and the findings can assist practitioners and investors in making informed decisions and developing robust risk management strategies.

The influences of psychological factors on investors decision making in the South African derivative market

Studies in behavioral finance have shown that human behavior often diverges from the rationality assumed by economists, as their decisions can occasionally be swayed by their emotional and psychological states. Given this concern, the study examines psychological factors influencing individual decision-making in the South African financial market. A structured questionnaire was used in collecting data from 414 participants who are individual investors actively involved in trading in the Johannesburg stock exchange market with the application of the random sampling method. The main objective of this study is to explore the psychological variables or biases that determine the investment decision-making of individual investors. Furthermore, this paper investigates psychological factors such as Anchoring, Herding, Overconfidence and Representative biases in investment decision-making. Findings revealed that all the variables, overconfidence, herding, anchoring and representative heuristics have a relationship with each other but the only variable that influences the individual investment decision is the representative heuristic while less consideration is given to another variable. The results of this study would help financial advisors understand the high importance of psychological factors and help them integrate behavioral insights into investment strategies. This will in turn help them provide better services to their clients. It will also help individual investors to acknowledge and understand the psychological factors influencing investment decisions and how to take note of them to make better decisions. Policymakers can consider the implications of psychological biases on market stability.

The implication of cryptocurrency volatility on five largest African financial system stability

This study examined the interconnectedness and volatility correlation between cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets in the five largest African countries, addressing concerns about potential spillover effects, especially the high volatility and lack of regulation in the cryptocurrency market. The study employed both diagonal BEKK-GARCH and DCC-GARCH to analyze the existence of spillover effects and correlation between both markets. A daily time series dataset from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2021, was employed to analyze the contagion effect. Our findings reveal a significant spillover effect from cryptocurrency to the African traditional financial market; however, the percentage spillover effect is still low but growing. Specifically, evidence is insufficient to suggest a spillover effect from cryptocurrency to Egypt and Morocco’s financial markets, at least in the short run. Evidence in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya indicates a moderate but growing spillover effect from cryptocurrency to the financial market. Similarly, we found no evidence of a spillover effect from the African financial market to the cryptocurrency market. The conditional correlation result from the DCC-GARCH revealed a positive low to moderate correlation between cryptocurrency volatility and the African financial market. Specifically, the DCC-GARCH revealed a greater integration in both markets, especially in the long run. The findings have policy implications for financial regulators concerning the dynamics of both markets and for investors interested in portfolio diversification within the two markets.

Comparative Studies of North African Financial Markets

This research conducts a comprehensive analysis of North African financial markets, exploring their intricacies, strengths, and weaknesses while focusing on potential future developments. Examining historical evolution, regulatory landscapes, market participants and overall performance across all North African countries from 2010 to 2023, the study utilizes statistical analyses as its methodological approach. North Africa’s stock markets exhibit unique characteristics distinguishing them from developed and emerging markets, marked by underperformance and challenges rooted in legislative, regulatory, and economic factors. Obstacles include a weak financial sector, insufficient financial intermediation, low investor awareness, limited political will, and financial solvency vulnerabilities. Despite efforts to activate and integrate securities markets, results remain modest, necessitating fundamental elements for an enhanced investment climate. Empirical findings emphasize the necessity for tailored economic policies and market reforms in response to the varied performance of North African exchanges. Governments in the region must prioritize evaluating and adjusting policies hindering the fluid flow of funds from stock exchanges to the broader economy. Upholding political stability and embracing good governance are vital for attracting investments and aligning exchanges with national economic growth objectives. North Africa’s stock exchanges stand at a pivotal juncture, where the intricate interplay of political and economic dynamics will shape their contributions to regional development. Through understanding nuanced dynamics, implementing targeted reforms, and capitalizing on opportunities, North Africa can unlock the full potential of its financial markets, fostering sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

Stochastic Default Risk Estimation Evidence from the South African Financial Market

This paper provides empirical studies of the estimation of defaultable bonds in the South African financial markets. The key objective is to estimate the unobservable factors affecting bond yields for South African major banks. The maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation methodology. Multi-dimensional Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR)-type factor models are considered and compared. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed in order to tackle the situation that the factors cannot be observed directly. We find empirical evidence that default risk varies with the business cycle, increased sharply in the South African financial market during COVID-19 and the α\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\alpha$$\\end{document}-CIR model performs better than the classical CIR model.

Quantification of the stock market value at risk by using FIAPARCH, HYGARCH and FIGARCH models

<abstract><p>The South African financial market is developing with periods of high and low volatility. Employing an adequate volatility model is essential to manage market risk. This research study was designed to investigate the effectiveness of the fractionally integrated asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity contrasted with long-memory GARCH-type models, such as the fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and the hyperbolic generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity for producing the measure of market risk known as the value at risk. These long-memory GARCH-type models assume that the distributions of the index returns follow normal, student-$ t $, skewed student-$ t $ and generalized error distributions. The historical closing price time series of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange all share, the mining and the banking indices are considered. The value at risk and its backtesting for short and long trading positions on the different confident levels are computed and they correspond to the right and left quantiles of the return distributions, respectively. The results reveal that FIAPARCH with a standard student-$ t $ distribution is an appropriate model for producing a robust value at risk in the context of mining and banking indices. Alternatively, FIGARCH with the assumed skewed student-$ t $ distribution model is a good fit to produce a value at risk for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index.</p></abstract>

Does colonisation explain the low level of growth in African financial markets?

• This paper examines the effect of colonization on the growth of financial markets in Africa • Africa provides an interesting context to explain the relationship between history and finance. • History is measured by the mortality rate of the settlers and their sedentarisation rate. • The study provides new evidence and perspectives. • Mortality rate of the settlers reduces African financial market but not for sedentarisation. This study examines the effect of colonisation on the growth of financial markets in Africa using a sample of 30 countries for settler mortality and 35 countries for settler sedentarisation over the 1996–2017 period. Using a robust ordinary least squares regression with fixed effects, we find that settler mortality exerts a negative impact on the evolution of financial markets in former African colonies, while the opposite effect is obtained for the settler sedentarisation rate. These results remain robust to the several tests performed. Our study provides new evidence and perspectives to the long-standing debate regarding the relationship between history and finance. As a key recommendation, we propose that policymakers should draw more inspiration from the past to make better policy decisions in terms of economic, institutional, sociocultural, and legal governance to enhance the development of their financial markets.

Integrated Governance, Risk, and Compliance (GRC) and Combined Assurance: A Comparative Institutional Study

The combined assurance model plays a pivotal role in integrating a company’s governance, risk, and compliance (GRC) processes. More than a decade after the South African financial market initiated the model through King III Report in 2009, the Indonesian financial market strived to adopt it in 2013. However, very few companies in Indonesia have reported its implementation. We hypothesized that institutional theory could explain the phenomenon. This comparative study thus used qualitative and quantitative approaches to analyze the adoption of the combined assurance model in South African and Indonesian markets. Qualitative content analysis was employed to interrogate the annual reports of 130 companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and the Indonesia Stock Exchange to identify professions and their activities in implementing the model. Afterwards, an estimation model was built using binary logistic regression based on the identified variables. It was found that regulative and normative pillars were the most determining factors in implementing a combined assurance model. In addition, it was found that the integrated report approach and market capitalization were associated with model implementation. These findings can be the basis for state and professions (i.e., authorities, regulators, and standard-setting bodies), especially in Indonesia, to enhance the companies’ integrated GRC. Keywords: combined assurance; corporate governance; institutional theory; risk management; internal audit

Examining stylized facts and trends of FTSE/JSE TOP40: a parametric and Non-Parametric approach

<abstract><p>It is critical in risk and portfolio management to identify groups or classes of financial returns. Portfolio diversification is one of the first decisions made during the portfolio construction phase, and it entails allocating assets among various asset class groups to maximize the risk/reward trade-off. Therefore, this research provides a detailed examination of empirical analysis concerning the characterization of financial markets. In this study, we use parametric and non-parametric approaches to look at stylized facts and patterns of the FTSE/JSE Top40, which comprises the top 40 holdings companies in the South African financial market. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a model of this type has been used to create a map that characterizes this index. Our findings indicated that the majority of the properties of the data were valid including among others, clustering volatility, monthly seasonal effects and significant autocorrelation (or serial correlation) on logarithmic returns. Moreover, we found that intra-week trend effects exist, whereas the weekend effect has practically vanished in the FTSE/JSE Top40. With regard to the transition probabilities of the MS(2)-GJR-GARCH (1,1) model, the FTSE/JSE Top40 index had a 98.8% chance of exhibiting long memory, while the volatility had a 99.6% chance of exhibiting long memory.</p></abstract>

Stochastic Default Risk Estimation: Evidence from the South African Financial Market

Stochastic Default Risk Estimation: Evidence from the South African Financial Market

Experience, communication, and collective action: financial autonomy and capital market development in East Asia

ABSTRACT From the creation of the eurozone to the African Financial Markets Initiative, the world has seen the emergence of regional financial institutions in recent decades. East Asia is no exception. ASEAN plus Three (China, Japan, and Korea) has institutionalised the Asian Bond Marked Initiative (ABMI) since 2003. What explains the development of the ABMI? We argue that East Asian states established it as an institutional mechanism for regional financial autonomy constrained by their dependence on Western financial market. In making this argument, we propose an experience-communication analytical framework to systematically investigate the formation of collective economic interests. We show that the analytical framework captures the timing and the content of the institutional evolution of the ABMI with greater precision. To demonstrate our claim, we attempt to make best use of both qualitative process tracing and quantitative collocational analysis for the validity and reliability of our claim. Particular attention is paid to analysing the politics of inclusion and exclusion in membership as ASEAN plus Three states shifted the forum for regional bond market cooperation from the APEC, of which the United States is a member, to the ABMI, which excludes the United States in pursuing regional financial autonomy.

The Future of African Financial Markets Modelling in Traditional and Machine Learning Techniques

The Future of African Financial Markets Modelling in Traditional and Machine Learning Techniques

Financial Stress Index and Economic Activity in South Africa: New Evidence

The importance of a sound and stable financial system and by extension economic stability was brought to the fore by the global financial crisis (GFC). The economic and social costs of the GFC have renewed the commitment of stakeholders in the financial sector including central banks to develop instruments and methodologies that will be useful in monitoring financial stress within the financial system and the real economy. This study contributes to the growing literature by developing a financial stress indicator for the South African financial market. The financial stress indicator (FSI) is a single aggregate indicator that is constructed to reflect the systemic nature of financial instability and also to measure the vulnerability of the financial system to both internal and external shocks. Using the principal component analysis (PCA), the results show that financial stress can be identified by the financial stress indicator. Furthermore, using a recursive Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to estimate the impact of financial stress on output and investment, the result shows that financial stress has a negative impact on economic growth and investment, though not immediately. FSI is very useful for gauging the effectiveness of government measures to mitigate the impact of financial stress. Concerted effort to stimulate investment and domestic production by relevant stakeholders is necessary to mitigate the impact of financial stress. This will go a long way to alleviating the impact of the financial stress on industrial production, employment and the economy at large.

Spillover effects of the US monetary policy normalization on African stock markets

PurposeWe study the contemporaneous effects of US monetary policy normalization on African stock market using panel data from six African countries.Design/methodology/approachDaily data from May 1, 2013 to December 31, 2018 were used in order to accommodate the announcement effects since the US monetary policy normalization announcement was made in May 2013, while the rate hike was in December 2015. The study used the FE, RE and PMG models.FindingsThe results revealed that US 10-year bond yield and Treasury bill rate shocks negatively affect stock prices in Africa. S$P500 shock positively affects African stock prices.The result revealed that the integration of African financial market to the global financial market is a major source of vulnerability. The finding that US Treasury bill rate is a major depressant of the African stock prices reveals the short-termism of foreign polio inflows into African economies.Originality/valueWe provide inexorably insight into the interplay of financial systems globally. It can be useful for the purposes of generalization in developing economies in the shape of African countries. More so, this study could be replicated in another economic bloc or region with the aim of further exposing the far-reaching spillover effects of the US monetary policy normalization.

Evaluating South Africa’s market risk using asymmetric power auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic model under heavy-tailed distributions

Orientation: Value-at-risk (VAR) and other risk management tools, such as expected shortfall (conditional VAR), are heavily reliant on a suitable set of underlying distributional conjecture. Thus, distinguishing the underlying distribution that best captures all properties of stock returns is of great interest to both scholars and risk managers. Research purpose: Comparing the execution of the generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-type model combined with heavy-tailed distributions, namely the Student’s t -distribution, Pearson type-IV distribution (PIVD), generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) and stable distribution (SD), in estimating VAR of Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All Share Price Index (ALSI) returns. Motivation for the study: The proposed models have the potential to apprehend volatility clustering and the leverage effect through the GARCH scheme and at the same time model the heavy-tailed behaviour of the financial returns. Research approach/design and method: The GARCH-type model combined with heavy-tailed distributions, namely the Student’s t -distribution, PIVD, GPD and SD, is developed to estimate VAR of JSE ALSI returns. The model performances are assessed through Kupiec likelihood ratio test. Main findings: The results show that the asymmetric power auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic models combined with GPD and PIVD are the robust VAR models for South African’s market risk. Practical/managerial implications: The outcomes of this study are expected to be of salient value to financial analysts, portfolio managers, risk managers and financial market researchers, thus giving a better understanding of the South African financial market. Contributions/value-add: Asymmetric power auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic model combined with heavy-tailed distributions provides a good option for modelling stock returns.

Effectiveness of financial market as Economic Development Agents in Africa (2008-2017).

The development in Africa’s financial sector in recent years has been remarkable. Though relatively underexplored and underinvested sector a mere decade ago, today, this sector is considered to be one of the continent’s brightest prospects. This is due to the fact that for some time now, financial sector development has been on front burners in the economic agenda of most African countries. This sector has the potential to transform the lives of millions of people across the continent. Low rate of economic development has created a lot of social stress in Africa, which is responsible for incidence and prevalence of poverty, and consequent social uprisings on a number of occasions. Various studies have examined the role of African financial market development on economic growth, but none have strictly generated a combined focus on the three major African groupings – the Southern, the Western and the Eastern African regions. This paper specifically address this void and it examines the determinant and impact of banking sector and stock market development on Africa’s economic growth and development. Various econometric techniques that include descriptive statistics, unit root tests and OLS were used to analyse data. The study finds out that local financial markets play crucial roles in economic development of Africa, albeit in varying magnitude. The study also observes that banking sector development and economic growth promote stock market development. In addition, this paper finds an interesting result in the fact that trade openness has a negative impact on stock market development, which is different from the findings of many other studies. Financial market size is also strongly related to the size of the economy. This paper has some policy implications. In order to promote banking and stock market development in the region, it is important to encourage savings by appropriate incentives, consider the possibility of one single currency for African countries in order to improve stock market liquidity and develop financial intermediaries. This paper shows an in‐depth analysis of Africa financial markets in order to assess how they can improve and benefit the global investor. In addition, it is found that financial intermediaries and stock markets are complements rather than substitutes in the growth process.

Financial Contagion Effect and Investor Behavior in African Financial Markets During the 2007–09 Global Financial Crisis

This paper examines contagion effect on 10 African financial markets. These markets can be considered risky as they carry additional political and economic risks. They are also a lot less integrated with the US as depicted in financial integration literature. A consequence of this is that African financial markets, generally have much lower correlations with the US market. The distinguishing characteristic of the 2007-09 crisis is its long nature characterised by a series of sub-shocks. The insight that this paper gives is that, a multiple-event crisis that consists of a series of shocks, leads us to examine contagion as a series of events. Using correlation coefficient analysis, evidence of contagion is found in different crisis periods which mostly disappeared following the adjustment for heteroscedasticity bias. Our results do point to investors’ herding behaviour as the main driving force for contagion in our sample.

The Nexus Between Johannesburg Stock Exchange and the United States Unemployment Rate Announcement: An Impulse Response Analysis

The study explores the relationship between the unemployment rate in the United States and South Africa’s stock prices from the beginning of 2013 to the last day 2017. The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of the US unemployment rate announcement on the South African financial market. Results of Impulse Response analysis show that there is a very minimal impact from the US unemployment announcement to South Africa’s stock prices which disappears within two days of the announcement. In addition, the Johannesburg stock exchange index marginally responds to own shocks, which marginally fades away within two days. These findings imply that the changes in the US employment policies have a direct ripple effect on the South African macroeconomic environment, its investing public sentiments and corporate confidence on the future prospects of businesses.

The impact of flexible corporate governance disclosures on value relevance. Empirical evidence from South Africa

PurposeConsidering that the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) has enacted in its Listings Requirements, compliance of listed firms to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and King Code of Good Corporate Governance, this study aims to investigate the impact of internal corporate governance attributes on the value relevance of accounting information in South Africa.Design/methodology/approachThe fixed effect generalised least squares regression is used for the period from 2002 to 2014. Proxies for internal corporate governance are the size of the board, leadership structure, board activity, staggered board, boardroom independence, presence of key committees and board gender diversity. Value relevance is measured using the adjusted R2 derived from a regression of stock price on earnings and equity book values by following Ohlson’s accounting-based valuation framework.FindingsThe findings suggest that the net asset value per share is value-relevant in South African listed firms and also when the boardroom is largely independent. The value of earnings per share (EPS) is more robust when corporate governance structures, such as separating the roles of chief executive officer and chairperson, proportion of board-independent board members and presence of board committees, are in place. This suggests that EPS favours agency and resource dependence theories.Practical implicationsThe value relevance of accounting information in the South African financial market underscores the importance of requisite rules and supervision regarding financial reporting to allow asset owners and managers in the allocation of capital decisions. This study supports the view that corporate governance plays a key role in ensuring, amongst others, credible financial reporting. The outcome of this study could inform the JSE to enforce, even stricter, compliance with IFRS and corporate governance to improve the value relevance of financial information.Social implicationsSignificant corporate governance reforms around the world suggest that regulators and policy makers consider corporate governance as a pertinent tonic in ensuring, amongst others, credible financial reporting. The implications of the study might assure users of financial information of how compliance to corporate governance practices may influence the value of the firm. This paper provides empirical evidence in the South African context that EPS, unlike net asset value per share, is driven by corporate governance structures.Originality/valueThe period of this study is unique, because it covers a relatively stable economic period before the financial crisis, a challenging and unstable period of time when the financial crisis materialised, and the aftermath of the financial crisis. In addition, the examination period of the study also covers the two corporate governance reforms in South Africa, King II in 2002 and King III in 2009, as well as the new Companies Act No. 71 of 2008. These exogenous factors may influence the results.

A comparative cross-regime analysis on the performance of GARCH-based value-at-risk models: Evidence from the Johannesburg stock exchange

A topic of recent interest in financial risk management is the predictive accuracy of Value-at-risk (VaR) models for adequate capitalization under different market conditions (or regimes). This article assesses the forecasting performance of popular GARCH-based volatility models in the context of VaR estimation. In particular, we conduct a cross-regime analysis between time periods whereby market conditions experiences a shift. Stock returns data from the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share index were selected for the evaluation of both long and short positions of trade. Despite prior findings of the long memory models dominating in the South African financial market, we conclude that such dominance does not necessary hold when assessed under different regimes of the market. Moreover, our findings indicated a need for implementations of model switching policies, which may provide significant improvements in forecasting and minimize chances of VaR estimates falling short of actual trading losses.