African Easterly Wave Activity Research Articles

Sensitivity of African Easterly Waves to Dust Forcing

AbstractThere is a lack of consensus regarding the sign and magnitude of the effect of dust‐radiative forcing on African easterly waves (AEWs) among past studies. The uncertainty in the dust‐radiative forcing associated with the estimation of shortwave absorption is a leading cause of disagreement in the literature. The inability of models to represent various dust‐AEW interaction pathways also leads to uncertainty among modeling studies. The present study investigates the sensitivity of AEWs to the observed variability in dust shortwave absorption using a high‐resolution atmospheric general circulation model. Global simulations are conducted at a spatial resolution of about 25 km to simulate AEWs and associated circulation features adequately well. The results reveal that AEWs are highly sensitive to dust shortwave absorption. In addition, the AEW activity intensifies and broadens the wave track with a southward shift in response to dust shortwave absorption. Eddy kinetic energy (EKE) associated with AEWs changes by approximately ±25% for the range of dust shortwave absorption used. The 6–9 days waves are more sensitive to dust shortwave absorption than the 3–5 days waves, with the response in the former exhibiting a stark land‐sea contrast. The sensitivity of AEWs to dust heating stems from a combination of the responses from various energy conversions. Although baroclinic energy conversion is the dominant term in the energy cycle, the responses to dust shortwave heating in barotropic and generation terms are comparable to those in baroclinic conversion.

Increase in Cape Verde hurricanes during Atlantic Niño

At seasonal-to-interannual timescales, Atlantic hurricane activity is greatly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Mode. However, those climate modes develop predominantly in boreal winter or spring and are weaker during the Atlantic hurricane season (June–November). The leading mode of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability during the Atlantic hurricane season is Atlantic Niño/Niña, which is characterized by warm/cold SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. However, the linkage between Atlantic Niño/Niña and hurricane activity has not been examined. Here, we use observations to show that Atlantic Niño, by strengthening the Atlantic inter-tropical convergence zone rainband, enhances African easterly wave activity and low-level cyclonic vorticity across the deep tropical eastern North Atlantic. We show that such conditions increase the likelihood of powerful hurricanes developing in the deep tropics near the Cape Verde islands, elevating the risk of major hurricanes impacting the Caribbean islands and the U.S.

Mechanisms for African easterly wave changes in simulations of the mid-Holocene

The mid-Holocene was a warm period with significantly amplified precipitation in North Africa, and a northward shifted Western African Monsoon during boreal summer. We conduct simulations for the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods to investigate the connection between summer rainfall variability and changes of African easterly waves (AEWs) during the mid-Holocene. Summer rainfall increases and migrates northward during the mid-Holocene, but the magnitude of change fails to reconcile the discrepancy with mid-Holocene proxy evidence, possibly due to no prescribed vegetation change in our simulations. The spectrum of summer rainfall over the Sahel and West Africa reveals enhanced synoptic time scale (3-to-6 days) variability during the mid-Holocene, which is consistent with the enhanced AEW activity influence. Specifically, the southern AEW track strengthens and migrates poleward during the mid-Holocene period, which modulates summer rainfall over the Sahel and West Africa. By comparison, the northern AEW track changes less and produces a minor contribution to rainfall changes in those regions. We find enhanced baroclinic and barotropic instabilities to promote the AEW activity during the mid-Holocene, with a doubling of the eddy kinetic energy of the meridional wind from that in PI, and baroclinic energy conversion plays a more important role. Stronger low-level meridional thermal gradients increase moisture flux from the Atlantic Ocean to inland.The amplified AEW activity, together with promoted moist convection and increased precipitation, results in a northern shift of the summer rainfall band during the mid-Holocene.

Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long‐term WAM variability is unknown. We use an ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3‐GC3.1 that span the most recent estimates in simulated anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing. We show that uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing leads to significant uncertainty at simulating multi‐decadal trends in West African precipitation. At the large scale, larger forcing leads to a larger decrease in the interhemispheric temperature gradients, in temperature over both the North Atlantic Ocean and northern Sahara. There are also differences in dynamic changes specific to the WAM (locations of the Saharan heat low and African Easterly Jet, of the strength of the West African westerly jet, and of African Easterly Wave activity). We also assess effects on monsoon precipitation characteristics and temperature. We show that larger aerosol forcing results in a decrease of the number of rainy days and of heavy and extreme precipitation events and warm spells. However, simulated changes in onset and demise dates do not appear to be sensitive to the magnitude of aerosol forcing. Our results demonstrate the importance of reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol forcing for understanding and predicting multi‐decadal variability in the WAM.

Energetics of Interactions between African Easterly Waves and Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

Abstract Perturbation kinetic and available energy budgets are used to explore how convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves (KWs) impact African easterly wave (AEW) activity. The convective phase of the Kelvin wave increases the African easterly jet’s meridional shear, thus enhancing the barotropic energy conversions, leading to intensification of southern track AEWs perturbation kinetic energy. In contrast, the barotropic energy conversion is reduced in the suppressed phase of KW. Baroclinic energy conversion of the southern track AEWs is not significantly different between Kelvin waves’ convective and suppressed phases. AEWs in the convective phase of a Kelvin wave have stronger perturbation available potential energy generation by diabatic heating and stronger baroclinic overturning circulations than in the suppressed phase of a Kelvin wave. These differences suggest that southern track AEWs within the convective phase of Kelvin waves have more vigorous convection than in the suppressed phase of Kelvin waves. Barotropic energy conversion of the northern track AEWs is not significantly different between Kelvin waves’ convective and suppressed phases. The convective phase of the Kelvin wave increases the lower-tropospheric meridional temperature gradient north of the African easterly jet, thus enhancing the baroclinic energy conversion, leading to intensification of northern track AEWs perturbation kinetic energy. In contrast, the baroclinic energy conversion is reduced in the suppressed phase of KW. These results provide a physical basis for the modulation of AEWs by Kelvin waves arriving from upstream.

The Impact of Orography on the African Easterly Wave Stormtrack

AbstractWe examined the sensitivity of African easterly waves (AEWs) to elevated terrain over North Africa using a numerical weather prediction model. We formed five ensembles of simulated AEW activity with orographic features independently reduced in four key regions. The ensemble members consisted of 10 consecutive AEW seasons simulated separately. From the ensembles, the southern AEW stormtrack was most sensitive to the reduction of the Ethiopian highlands. Energy budgets showed that diminished diabatic heating associated with precipitating convection was the likely driver of the weaker AEWs. Baroclinic overturning was the dominant pathway for this response. The northern AEW stormtrack was most sensitive to the reduction of the Hoggar and Tibesti mountains. In this case, a reduction in the vertical shear and diminished baroclinic energy conversions from the background state was associated with weaker AEWs. Through terrain reduction, our results provide a view of thermodynamic and dynamic feedback in AEWs that is complementary to what has been shown in past studies.

The Impact of Kelvin Wave Activity during Dry and Wet African Summer Rainfall Years

This study highlights the influence of convectively coupled Kelvin wave (KW) activity on deep convection and African easterly waves (AEWs) over North Africa during dry and wet boreal summer rainfall years. Composite analysis based on 25 years of rainfall, satellite observed cold cloud temperature, and reanalysis data sets show that KWs are more frequent and stronger in dry Central African years compared with wet years. Deep convection associated with KWs is slightly more amplified in dry years compared with wet years. Further, KW activity over North Africa strengthens the lower level zonal flow and deepens the zonal moisture flux in dry years compared with wet years. Results also show that enhanced KW convection is in phase with above-average AEW variance in dry years. However, enhanced KW convection is out-of-phase with average AEW activity in wet years. In general, this study suggests that KW passage over Africa enhances convective activity and more strongly modulates the monsoon flow and moisture flux during the dry years than wet years.

Linking African Easterly Wave Activity with Equatorial Waves and the Influence of Rossby Waves from the Southern Hemisphere

Abstract A connection is found between African easterly waves (AEWs), equatorial westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) waves, and equivalent barotropic Rossby waves (RWs) from the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The amplitude and phase of equatorial waves is calculated by projection of broadband-filtered ERA-Interim data onto a horizontal structure basis obtained from equatorial wave theory. Mechanisms enabling interaction between the wave types are identified. AEWs are dominated by a vorticity wave that tilts eastward below the African easterly jet and westward above: the tilt necessary for baroclinic wave growth. However, a strong relationship is identified between amplifying vorticity centers within AEWs and equatorial WMRG waves. Although the waves do not phase lock, positive vorticity centers amplify whenever the cross-equatorial motion of the WMRG wave lies at the same longitude in the upper troposphere (southward flow) and east of this in the lower troposphere (northward flow). Two mechanisms could explain the vorticity amplification: vortex stretching below the upper-tropospheric divergence and ascent associated with latent heating in convection in the lower-tropospheric moist northward flow. In years of strong AEW activity, SH and equatorial upper-tropospheric zonal winds are more easterly. Stronger easterlies have two effects: (i) they Doppler shift WMRG waves so that their period varies little with wavenumber (3–4 days) and (ii) they enable westward-moving RWs to propagate into the tropical waveguide from the SH. The RW phase speeds can match those of WMRG waves, enabling sustained excitation of WMRG. The WMRG waves have an eastward group velocity with wave activity accumulating over Africa and invigorating AEWs at similar frequencies through the vorticity amplification mechanism.

A multi‐scale analysis of the extreme rain event of Ouagadougou in 2009

This study presents a multi‐scale analysis of an extreme rain event that occurred in Burkina Faso on 1 September 2009 with an absolute record of 263 mm rainfall observed at Ouagadougou. This high‐impact weather system results from the combination of several favourable ingredients at different scales. The sea‐surface temperature anomaly patterns in July–August 2009 of both the Atlantic cold tongue, the Tropical Atlantic Dipole and the Mediterranean Sea are favourable factors for the northward penetration of the West African monsoon. The intense convective activity of the last 10‐day period in August is associated with the crossing of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave increasing the African easterly wave (AEW) activity, and of an equatorial Rossby wave.At the synoptic scale this event corresponds to the passage of a train of three AEWs with increasing magnitude. Behind the first AEW trough axis, an intense and deep southerly monsoon burst develops. It contributes to the amplification of the second AEW and its breaking is associated with the formation of an intense meso‐vortex on the southern flank of the African easterly jet. Compared to the fast‐moving squall line, the dominant type of precipitating weather system over the Sahel, the Ouagadougou precipitating system appears to be a moist vortex propagating slowly, allowing rainfall accumulation, without wind gusts or convective cold pools observed at the surface. The main precipitation area is located about 2° longitude downshear (westward due to the African easterly jet) of the centre of this strong meso‐vortex.

Reduced African Easterly Wave Activity with Quadrupled CO2 in the Superparameterized CESM

Abstract African easterly wave (AEW) activity is examined in quadrupled CO2 experiments with the superparameterized CESM (SP-CESM). The variance of 2–10-day filtered precipitation increases with warming over the West African monsoon region, suggesting increased AEW activity. The perturbation enstrophy budget is used to investigate the dynamic signature of AEW activity. The northern wave track becomes more active associated with enhanced baroclinicity, consistent with previous studies. The southern track exhibits a surprising reduction of wave activity associated with less frequent occurrence of weak waves and a slight increase in the occurrence of strong waves. These changes are connected to changes in the profile of vortex stretching and tilting that can be understood as interconnected consequences of increased static stability from the lapse rate response, weak temperature gradient balance, and the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis.

Understanding the Mechanisms behind the Northward Extension of the West African Monsoon during the Mid-Holocene

Abstract Understanding the West African monsoon (WAM) dynamics in the mid-Holocene (MH) is a crucial issue in climate modeling, because numerical models typically fail to reproduce the extensive precipitation suggested by proxy evidence. This discrepancy may be largely due to the assumption of both unrealistic land surface cover and atmospheric aerosol concentration. In this study, the MH environment is simulated in numerical experiments by imposing extensive vegetation over the Sahara and the consequent reduction in airborne dust concentration. A dramatic increase in precipitation is simulated across the whole of West Africa, up to the Mediterranean coast. This precipitation response is in better agreement with proxy data, in comparison with the case in which only changes in orbital forcing are considered. Results show a substantial modification of the monsoonal circulation, characterized by an intensification of large-scale deep convection through the entire Sahara, and a weakening and northward shift (~6.5°) of the African easterly jet. The greening of the Sahara also leads to a substantial reduction in the African easterly wave activity and associated precipitation. The reorganization of the regional atmospheric circulation is driven by the vegetation effect on radiative forcing and associated heat fluxes, with the reduction in dust concentration to enhance this response. The results for the WAM in the MH present important implications for understanding future climate scenarios in the region and in teleconnected areas, in the context of projected wetter conditions in West Africa.

Saharan Heat Low Biases in CMIP5 Models

Representing the West African monsoon (WAM) is a major challenge in climate modeling because of the complex interaction between local and large-scale mechanisms. This study focuses on the representation of a key aspect of West African climate, namely the Saharan heat low (SHL), in 22 global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel dataset. Comparison of the CMIP5 simulations with reanalyses shows large biases in the strength and location of the mean SHL. CMIP5 models tend to develop weaker climatological heat lows than the reanalyses and place them too far southwest. Models that place the climatological heat low farther to the north produce more mean precipitation across the Sahel, while models that place the heat low farther to the east produce stronger African easterly wave (AEW) activity. These mean-state biases are seen in model ensembles with both coupled and fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The importance of SSTs on West African climate variability is well documented, but this research suggests SSTs are secondary to atmospheric biases for understanding the climatological SHL bias. SHL biases are correlated across the models to local radiative terms, large-scale tropical precipitation, and large-scale pressure and wind across the Atlantic, suggesting that local mechanisms that control the SHL may be connected to climate model biases at a much larger scale.

Tropical Cyclones in the 7km NASA Global Nature Run for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Nature Run (NR), released for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), is a 2-year long global non-hydrostatic free-running simulation at a horizontal resolution of 7 km, forced by observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice, and inclusive of interactive aerosols and trace gases. This article evaluates the NR with respect to tropical cyclone (TC) activity. It is emphasized that to serve as a NR, a long-term simulation must be able to produce realistic TCs, which arise out of realistic large-scale forcings. The presence in the NR of the realistic, relevant dynamical features over the African Monsoon region and the tropical Atlantic is confirmed, along with realistic African Easterly Wave activity. The NR Atlantic TC seasons, produced with 2005 and 2006 SSTs, show interannual variability consistent with observations, with much stronger activity in 2005. An investigation of TC activity over all the other basins (eastern and western North Pacific, North and South Indian Ocean, and Australian region), together with relevant elements of the atmospheric circulation, such as, for example, the Somali Jet and westerly bursts, reveals that the model captures the fundamental aspects of TC seasons in every basin, producing realistic number of TCs with realistic tracks, life spans and structures. This confirms that the NASA NR is a very suitable tool for OSSEs targeting TCs and represents an improvement with respect to previous long simulations that have served the global atmospheric OSSE community.

Intense convection over West Africa during AMMA SOP3 experiment

ERA-Interim product from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) assimilation of African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) resources, Meteosat satellite images, and synoptic observations were used to study local- and regional-scale environments associated with intense convective systems during the AMMA-SOP3 experiment over West Africa in the Northern Hemisphere of summer 2006. The convective system, from the 21st to 23rd of August 2006, was more active at 0000 and 1800UTC showing diurnal cycle of deep convection over West Africa where the African easterly waves (AEWs) are developed downstream. Downstream barotropic and baroclinic energy conversions associated with strong AEWs are important for the maintenance of AEW activity in West Africa. Barotropic energy conversions dominate south of the African easterly jet (AEJ), while baroclinic energy conversions are most important north of the AEJ. From a dynamical viewpoint, the low-level vorticity presents strong positive values over the sea and Sahara zone, indicating that exists on the cyclonic shear side of the African easterly jet, which is consistent with baroclinic growth. The 925-hPa equivalent potential temperature structure show a maximum over the Sahara which corresponds to the depression observed in this region. A mosaic of three hourly infrared (IR) satellite images, depicts a very distinct signal from an initial region of convection, developing through several stages and moving off the African coast. These observations, along with those available from the World Weather Watch, provide an opportunity to carry out numerical weather prediction (NWP) studies over West Africa utilizing high resolution limited area models.

Effects of Localized Grid Refinement on the General Circulation and Climatology in the Community Atmosphere Model

Abstract Using the spectral element (SE) dynamical core within the National Center for Atmospheric Research–Department of Energy Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), a regionally refined nest at 0.25° (~28 km) horizontal resolution located over the North Atlantic is embedded within a global 1° (~111 km) grid. A 23-yr simulation using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) protocols and default CAM, version 5, physics is compared to an identically forced run using the global 1° (~111 km) grid without refinement. The addition of a refined patch over the Atlantic basin does not noticeably affect the global circulation. In the area where the refinement is located, large-scale precipitation increases with the higher resolution. This increase is partly offset by a decrease in precipitation resulting from convective parameterizations, although total precipitation is also slightly higher at finer resolutions. Equatorial waves are not significantly impacted when traversing multiple grid spacings. Despite the grid transition region bisecting northern Africa, local zonal jets and African easterly wave activity are highly similar in both simulations. The frequency of extreme precipitation events increases with resolution, although this increase is restricted to the refined patch. Topography is better resolved in the nest as a result of finer grid spacing. The spatial patterns of variables with strong orographic forcing (such as precipitation, cloud, and precipitable water) are improved with local refinement. Additionally, dynamical features, such as wind patterns, associated with steep terrain are improved in the variable-resolution simulation when compared to the uniform coarser run.

The relationship between African easterly waves and daily rainfall over West Africa: observations and regional climate simulations

The relationship between summer African easterly waves (AEWs) and daily rainfall is assessed in West Africa for 1998–2008 using various reanalyses, satellite-derived rainfall products, and a regional climate model (RCM) run at 90- and 30-km resolutions. 3–5 and 6–9 day AEWs are extracted by filtering daily 700 hPa meridional wind time series at 1°W and 11.5°N, and 1°W and 17.5°N, respectively. Both observed and simulated rainfall anomalies are of larger magnitude over West Africa during 3–5-d than 6–9-d AEWs. The RCM simulates larger rainfall rates in phase with the 3–5-d wave trough instead of ahead, unlike the observations, and overestimates the intensity and spatial coverage of rainfall associated with 6–9-d AEWs. The observed and simulated co-variability between 3–5-d (6–9-d) AEW activity and daily rainfall is strong (weak) and mostly located south (north) of 15°N. However, the RCM overestimates the spatial coverage of the AEW–rainfall relationship in the longitudinal (latitudinal) direction in the case of 3–5-d (6–9-d) AEWs. Observed and simulated daily intense rainfall events, extracted using a percentile threshold approach, are mostly located south of 15°N during summer. The observed relationship between their frequency of occurrence and active 3–5-d AEWs is maximal west of 8°E, while extends up to southern Chad in both RCM simulations. Their magnitude is also largely overestimated by the RCM, indicating an exaggerated coupling between the wave activity and the convection. Finally, observed and simulated 3–5-d AEWs establish the most favorable synoptic conditions for the development of intense rainfall events over West Africa.

West African Monsoon 2012

Living up to its reputation as a highly variable climate system, the West African Monsoon (WAM) 2012 contrasted strikingly with the previous year. In 2011, the West African rainy season was delayed, patchy, and irregular. In 2012, whilst it was anomalously wet in many area, the Guinea coastal countries and some crucial agricultural regions remained very dry, persisting from the previous year. As a result, 2012 generated the third big food crisis to hit the region in the last seven years. The 2012 WAM forecast, observed climate conditions and the ongoing socio-economic implications for the region are reviewed here.

A Characterization of African Easterly Waves on 2.5–6-Day and 6–9-Day Time Scales

Abstract This study shows that the African easterly wave (AEW) activity over the African monsoon region and the northern tropical Atlantic can be divided in two distinct temporal bands with time scales of 2.5–6 and 6–9 days. The results are based on a two-dimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (2D-EEMD) of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The novel result of this investigation is that the 6–9-day waves appear to be located predominantly to the north of the African easterly jet (AEJ), originate at the jet level, and are different in scale and structure from the well-known low-level 2.5–6-day waves that develop baroclinically on the poleward flank of the AEJ. Moreover, they appear to interact with midlatitude eastward-propagating disturbances, with the strongest interaction taking place at the latitudes where the core of the Atlantic high pressure system is located. Composite analyses applied to the mode decomposition indicate that the interaction of the 6–9-day waves with midlatitude systems is characterized by enhanced southerly (northerly) flow from (toward) the tropics. This finding agrees with independent studies focused on European floods, which have noted enhanced moist transport from the ITCZ toward the Mediterranean region on time scales of about a week as important precursors of extreme precipitation.

The Role of Convectively Coupled Atmospheric Kelvin Waves on African Easterly Wave Activity

AbstractThe role of convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin waves (CCKWs) on African easterly wave (AEW) activity is explored over tropical Africa during boreal summer. Examination of the pre-Alberto AEW in 2000 highlights the observation that the convective trigger for the initiation of the AEW was generated by a strong CCKW and that the subsequent intensification of the AEW at the West African coast was associated with a second CCKW. Composite analysis shows that, generally, AEW activity increases during and after the passage of the convectively active phase of strong CCKWs. The increase in AEW activity is consistent with convective triggering at the leading edge of the convective phase of the CCKW. This convective triggering occurs in a region where the background low-level easterly vertical wind shear is increased by the CCKW. As the AEW propagates westward through the convectively active phase of the CCKW, it can develop in an environment favorable for convection. It is also shown that this phase of the CCKW is characterized by enhanced meridional vorticity gradients in the core of the African easterly jet suggesting that enhanced mixed barotropic–baroclinic growth may also be responsible for enhanced AEW activity there.

The contribution of African easterly waves to monsoon precipitation in the CMIP3 ensemble

African easterly waves (AEWs) are a major source of synoptic‐scale rainfall variability throughout West Africa. Given the persistent uncertainty in the response of precipitation over West Africa to enhanced greenhouse forcing, we analyze the contribution of AEWs to the simulation of precipitation over West Africa in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of general circulation models. Nearly all models that simulate weaker‐than‐observed AEW activity exhibit a lack of coupling between AEWs and precipitation. Only those models that employ a convective parameterization with a moisture convergence‐based closure or trigger, or a prognostic closure with a convective suppression scheme, demonstrate a consistent connection between AEWs and precipitation. The strength of simulated AEW activity is largely dependent on the simulated magnitude and positioning of the African easterly jet and low‐level westerlies. We find a strong positive relationship between the magnitude of simulated AEW activity and seasonal‐ and synoptic‐scale precipitation. Models with weaker‐than‐observed AEW activity exhibit a disproportionately low percentage of precipitation variability at AEW timescales. Conversely, in those models that simulate stronger‐than‐observed AEW activity, dynamical forcing associated with the wave tends to produce overly intense individual precipitation events. Our results suggest that the simulation of AEWs contributes substantially to the spread in mean seasonal precipitation across the CMIP3 ensemble during the 20th century, and that improved understanding of the effect of enhanced greenhouse forcing on the relationship between AEWs and precipitation could help to narrow the uncertainty in the response of West African rainfall to continued global warming.