Affect Exchange Rates Research Articles

Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rate Stability in Nigeria

This study investigates the impact of interest rates, money supply, and Central Bank reserves on exchange rate stability in Nigeria. Utilizing quarterly economic data from 1980 to 2023, sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, the research employs a longitudinal survey design to assess the relationships between these monetary variables and exchange rate volatility. The findings indicate that interest rates, money supply, and Central Bank reserves significantly influence exchange rate fluctuations, with Central Bank reserves having the most substantial impact. Specifically, interest rates exhibit a moderate effect on exchange rate volatility (t = 3.513, p = .001, Beta = .342), while money supply also significantly affects exchange rate volatility (t = 2.713, p = .010, Beta = .305). Central Bank reserves, however, have the most pronounced impact (t = 4.141, p = .000, Beta = .467). These results highlight the critical role of monetary policy in maintaining exchange rate stability. The significant positive relationship between interest rates and exchange rate volatility suggests that monetary authorities should carefully consider the ramifications of interest rate adjustments. Similarly, the influence of money supply underscores the need for meticulous management to prevent destabilization. Robust Central Bank reserves emerge as a crucial buffer against exchange rate fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of effective reserve management policies. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance exchange rate stability through strategic interest rate policies, careful money supply management, and maintaining adequate Central Bank reserves.

The Impact of the Monetary Policy of the US Federal Reserve on the Ratio of the US Dollar To the Japanese Yen in the Foreign Exchange Market during 2015-2023

The information base of the study is the time series of the daily exchange rate of the currency pair USD/JPY, the US 10-year Treasury bond (TB 10), the Japanese government bond 10-year (JGB 10), the volatility index (VIX) of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), which calculated by Bloomberg. Study period: December 1, 2015 (the date the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, which initiated a new regime – began easing its ZIRP zero interest rate policy) to December 29, 2023. The relationship between monetary policy and the currency pair USD/JPY is evaluated using 3 approaches: 1) a rally dynamic system based on the standard theory of nonlinear differential equations aimed at eliminating psychological noise (1/f noise, pink noise, trend noise with spectrum capacity); 2) regression of instrumental variables with heteroskedasticity aimed at managing unobservable sources of variability; 3) an event tracking method to measure anomalous asset price response, analyzing the daily price action of USD/JPY to detect market-related fluctuations in the exchange rate and separate the impact of general market trends from related differences in interest rates. The study found that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) monetary policy only occasionally affects the USD/JPY exchange rate, and it changes mainly when monetary policy deviates from expected future trajectories. Within the studied period, this happened only 3 times: growth on December 16, 2015; emergency rate reduction due to COVID-19 on March 15, 2020; and the first increase of 75 basis points on June 15, 2022 (the article estimates the impact of each of these episodes on the exchange rate). Statements by the Fed on monetary policy affect the price dynamics of the USD/JPY pair in the short term (since short-term psychological expectations play a decisive role in shaping the dynamics of the currency market), but not often (if the statement on monetary policy is consistent with market forecasts, it is practically will not affect exchange rates). The Fed’s adoption of tools such as “forward guidance” and official statements to inform the future course of monetary policy indirectly affects the price dynamics of USD/JPY. The price action of USD/JPY was driven by the fundamentals of the difference in interest rates between the US and Japanese bonds, which are influenced by the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In 2023, it could be hard to attempt to challenge FX intervention except to curb “excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates” like the Minister of Finance’s (MoF) 2022 intervention.

Application of deep learning algorithms in predicting the exchange rate of Chinese yuan against the US dollar

This paper mainly studies the feasibility of using deep learning algorithms to predict the exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the US dollar. Firstly, this study chooses the Long Short Term Memory Network (LSTM) as the main algorithm, which is a deep learning model suitable for processing time series data. Then, the study collects a large amount of data, including historical exchange rate data, macroeconomic indicators, and political events that may affect exchange rates. These data provide sufficient information for the model to learn and predict exchange rate fluctuations. The study found that the deep learning model can accurately predict the volatility of the RMB US dollar exchange rate by contrasting the calculated results of the pattern with effective exchange rate record, and its predicted results have high stability. Deep learning has great potential in the field of exchange rate forecasting, providing more accurate predictive information for financial transactions.

Domestic Debt and Exchange Rate Stability in Nigeria (1980 - 2021)

This study investigated the relationship between domestic debt and exchange rate stability in Nigeria using data for the period 1981 to 2021. Domestic debt was disaggregated into treasury bills (TBILLS), treasury bonds (TBONDS) and Federal Government bonds (FGNB) as well as other sources of debt (OTHERS). Exchange rate stability was proxied by Nigerian naira/US dollar exchange rate. Data was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin 2021 and analyzed using a combination of Johansen cointegration, granger causality and co- integrating regression adopting the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) technique. The findings showed that there is no long-run relationship between domestic debt and exchange rate stability. Also, TBILLS, TBONDS and OTHERS positively and significantly affect exchange stability in the short run at 5% level of significance while FGNB has a positive but insignificant short run relationship with exchange rate stability at 5% level of significance. It was also revealed that domestic debt variables (TBILLS, TBONDS and FGNB as well as OTHERS), does not granger cause exchange rate stability at the 5% level of significance. The study concluded that domestic debt significantly affects exchange rate stability in the short run but domestic debt has no long-run relationship with exchange rate stability, and there is no causal relationship between domestic debt and exchange rate stability. The study recommended among others that domestic debt variables are actually contracted using short term instruments. Thus, they should be used to maximally ensure short- and medium-term stability in exchanges.

An interpretable deep learning multi-dimensional integration framework for exchange rate forecasting based on deep and shallow feature selection and snapshot ensemble technology

Accurate exchange rate forecasting is important for the better realization of international economic transactions and international currency investments. However, it is challenging to forecast exchange rates due to their high volatility, nonlinearity, and noisy characteristics. This paper creatively proposes a novel interpretable deep learning multi-dimensional integration framework for foreign exchange rate forecasting based on shallow and deep feature selection and snapshot ensemble technology. The main factors affecting exchange rates are considered at a deep and shallow level, and the feature selection project is implemented. A cluster-based multidimensional learning paradigm is proposed. The framework clusters data and constructs predictive sub-models and then embeds snapshot ensemble techniques into models to improve the robustness of single models. Finally, the results are nonlinearly integrated by a deep learning model. In addition, three datasets and twelve comparative models were used to demonstrate the performance of the models. The empirical results show that the proposed model has the smallest mean absolute percentage error (0.407859%, 0.47134%, and 0.470167%, respectively).

Does trade freedom affect exchange rate movement? A perspective of high-technology trade

Changes in the degree of trade freedom influence economic development and foreign investment, which in turn, affect currency values and exchange rate movements. Therefore, this study examined the direct and indirect impacts of trade freedom on exchange rate movement in emerging, developing, and developed economies. Empirical tests conducted using panel data from 75 countries revealed that trade freedom has a nonlinear U-shaped relationship with exchange rate movement, which is positively moderated by high-technology trade and foreign direct investment. Additionally, the results of heterogeneity analysis showed that trade freedom has a linear positive impact on the exchange rate movement of developed economies but a U-shaped impact on emerging and developing economies, with a stronger impact on emerging economies. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for governments to strike a balance between promoting trade freedom and maintaining currency exchange rate stability.

African exchange rates amidst the COVID-19 pandemic

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 14pt;">The study investigates the impact of COVID-19 on African exchange rates, employing a panel dataset over the period 2016-2022 from 13 African economies and employing pooled OLS estimator. The findings reveal a noteworthy positive correlation between COVID-19 levels and exchange rates within the region. However, this association necessitates deeper exploration due to its multifaceted implications, including economic disruptions, government interventions, global market interconnections, regional stability perceptions, and investor behavior. Economic indicators, such as GDP, inflation rate, real interest rate, and unemployment rate, significantly influence exchange rates. While GDP positively impacts exchange rates through economic growth, investor confidence, and trade strength, controlled inflation fosters investor confidence and export competitiveness, positively affecting exchange rates. Moreover, a pronounced positive impact of the real interest rate indicates economic stability, attracting investment and contributing to currency appreciation. Conversely, high unemployment negatively affects exchange rates, signaling economic weaknesses and eroding investor confidence. These findings emphasize nuanced policy responses for managing health crisis-induced economic disruptions and suggest future research directions focusing on specific country-level analyses and multifaceted factors influencing currency valuations within African economies.</span></p>

Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Variability in Sri Lanka: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

A free float in the exchange rate has been recorded in the Sri Lankan rupee over the past few years affecting the Sri Lankan economy to a significant extent. This study intended to examine the factors affecting the exchange rate variability in Sri Lanka during the period from 1991 to 2020. For the study secondary data were obtained from the World Bank and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. The exchange rate was considered as the dependent variable while inflation rate, merchandise trade, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, foreign direct investments, balance of payments and external debt were considered as independent variables. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was used to examine the stationary of the time series data, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was adopted to figure out the long-run and short-run relationship between the variables. The results of ARDL bound test confirmed that there is a co-integration relationship between the variables, and the results of the error correction model revealed the significant impact of inflation rate, merchandise trade, Gross Domestic Product growth, foreign direct investments, balance of payments and external debt on exchange rate in both short run and long run. In the short run, balance of payment and GDP have no significant impact on the changes in exchange rate, and the results confirmed that there is a Exchange rate indicates negative relationships with external debt, inflation, and merchandise trade. Finally, the results confirmed the exchange rate is in a negative relationship with FDI and GDP in the long run.

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Explain Exchange Rate Movements in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS): A Panel ARDL Approach

Research proposes that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) leads to exchange rate fluctuations. Given that African countries experience higher levels of uncertainty in developed/emerging markets, we examine the extent to which domestic and foreign EPU affect exchange rates for a panel of 12 ECOWAS countries covering the period 1996–2018. In order to account for non-stationarity, cross-sectional dependence, and heterogeneity, the paper employs the dynamic heterogeneous panel approach. The ECOWAS has a dual currency arrangement ranging from a common currency union (CFA) to floating exchange rates (Non-CFA). To account for this, this study splits the sample data into CFA and Non-CFA areas. In addition, this study considers the role of the global financial crisis in the exchange rate-EPU nexus. Our results show that domestic EPU has a positive effect on exchange rates in the long run for Non-CFA areas. Different from the existing literature, our results suggest that domestic EPU does not explain exchange rate fluctuations in the short run. For all countries, foreign EPU leads to appreciation in the long run and depreciation in the short run. Interestingly, foreign EPU has a more dominant effect on exchange rate fluctuations in the selected countries than domestic EPU. This may reflect the weak institutional framework in these countries, which allows external fluctuations to have a greater impact. Moreover, this could be attributed to the increase in foreign capital flows during the sample period. Thus, these countries must develop effective policies to effectively absorb these external shocks. Results are robust to different proxies of EPU.

Estimating the effect of international crude oil prices on RMB exchange rate with two-way fluctuation spillover.

International crude oil prices has become one of the important factors that affect exchange rate fluctuation. By combining TVP-VAR model and DY time-varying spillover index, this paper measures the two-way fluctuation spillover effect between international crude oil prices and RMB exchange rate from 2011 to 2022. The research results show that: (1) There are obvious time-varying characteristics among international crude oil prices, onshore RMB exchange rate and offshore RMB exchange rate, and they are strengthened when major events occur at home and abroad; (2) The spillover and absorption level among international crude oil prices, onshore RMB exchange rate and offshore RMB exchange rate is relatively limited; (3) After the "exchange rate reform on August 11", the market participation of RMB exchange rate has increased year by year, and the offshore RMB is mainly net spillover, while the onshore RMB is mainly reflected as a recipient; (4) The offshore RMB exchange rate has a driving effect on the onshore RMB exchange rate. Based on this, it is necessary to orderly promote the development and utilization of new energy, actively promote the market-oriented reform of RMB exchange rate, play the leading role of offshore market, and accelerate the construction of crude oil-RMB settlement system.

Inflation Differential Pass-Through to Exchange Rate: Some Evidence From Pakistan

Using regression and wavelet coherence techniques this paper tries to probe the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) in Pakistan. For this purpose, monthly data is collected for nominal exchange rate and consumer prices of Pakistan and its 23 major trading partners for the flexible exchange rate period 1982M1 to 2020M12. The regression results show that in 12 countries inflation differential significantly positively affect exchange rate. Similarly, Granger causality results reveal that inflation differential causes exchange rates in 12 countries. Wavelet coherency results indicate that there is significant co-movements between inflation differentials and exchange rates in varying time and frequency domains in all countries. These results indicate the partial validity of PPP in Pakistan. These results suggest that by reducing its inflation Pakistan can stabilize its exchange rates. JEL Classifications: C14, E31, F31

The impact of Outward bank transfers on exchange rates in Iraq

The depreciation of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar, reaching low levels and causing disruptions in the local markets, has had detrimental effects on individuals and companies, particularly those with limited income and the poor. The local currency approached around 1600 dinars per dollar, after the official exchange rate had stabilized at around 1450 dinars per US dollar. This depreciation in the value of the Iraqi dinar can be attributed to financial speculation among currency traders, which directly affected exchange rates and illicit dollar smuggling operations. Bank transfers are also important alongside financial transactions, especially in light of current economic developments in the 21st century. To prevent currency smuggling, financial corruption, and money laundering, the Central Bank of Iraq suspended four Iraqi banks, which used to receive half of the central bank's daily sales, based on a recommendation from the US Department of Treasury. Additionally, there has been increased scrutiny on the participating banks in the currency auction, with approximately 35 banks involved. These measures have significantly impacted dollar sales and led to a shortage in the market, resulting in the depreciation of the Iraqi dinar.The significance of this research lies in the impact of bank transfers in the context of fluctuations in exchange rates in the local financial markets in Iraq. The Iraqi economy faces various challenges, including structural imbalances in economic sectors and increased reliance on foreign currency to cover high import demands. The research hypothesis asserts that bank transfers are used as a means to regulate banking operations and achieve monetary stability, which the Central Bank of Iraq seeks amidst exchange rate fluctuations. The aim of the research is to highlight the importance of bank transfers as a study of exchange rate fluctuations in Iraq and to elucidate the role of bank transfers in implementing the new electronic platform program.

BIG DATA AND EXCHANGE RATE EFFICIENCY IN NIGERIA: ANY ROLE FOR INVESTMENT SENTIMENTS?

The efficiency of the exchange rate is a strong indicator to determine appropriate exchange rate returns. This study engages the use of big data to investigate exchange rate efficiency in Nigeria and further examine the role of investment sentiments. The study employs both the unit-root and variance ratio tests. Also, the granger causality test was employed to investigate the direction of causality. The data spanned 4,992 daily observations each for exchange rate and investment sentiments and cover the daily period 12/10/2001 – 5/13/2022. For further interrogation, quarterly and yearly data frequencies of these two variables were employed in order to explain the varieties of big data. With recourse to the effect of big data, results show that the exchange rate exhibits a random walk behaviour in Nigeria only for daily and quarterly data frequencies and not for the yearly data frequency. However, the causality test indicates that investors' speculations do not affect exchange rate dynamics in the country. As the exchange rate is found efficient in Nigeria, the monetary authority is enjoined to promote real-time information about the exchange rate to deflect undue speculations by investors. This study implies that the monetary authority in Nigeria should model exchange rate efficiency around its intrinsic data-generating process.

Forecasting Commodity Market Synchronization with Commodity Currencies: A Network-Based Approach.

This paper shows that some commodity currencies (from Chile, Iceland, Norway, South Africa, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) predict the synchronization of metals and energy commodities. This relationship links the present-value theory for exchange rates and its connection with commodity export economies' fundamentals, where prospective commodity price fluctuations affect exchange rates. Predicting commodity market return synchronization is critical for dealing with systemic risk, market efficiency, and financial stability since synchronization reduces the benefits of diversification and increases the probability of contagion in financial markets during economic and financial crises. Using network methods coupled with in-sample and out-of-sample econometrics models, we find evidence that a fall in the return of commodity-currencies (dollar appreciation) predicts an increase in commodity market synchronization and, consequently, in commodity market systemic risk. This discovery is consistent with a transitive capacity phenomenon, suggesting that commodity currencies have a predictive ability over commodities that extend beyond the commodity bundle that a country produces. The latter behavior would be exacerbated by the high financialization of commodities and strong co-movement of commodity markets. Our paper is part of a vigorously growing literature that has recently measured and predicted systemic risk caused by synchronization, combining a complex systems perspective and financial network analysis.

Pengaruh Inflasi dan Suku Bunga terhadap Perubahan Nilai Kurs Negara Asia Tenggara dengan Acuan Kurs Rupiah Tahun 2014-2021

The exchange rate is one of the financial assets that can accelerate government revenue growth because the exchange rate has a major role in trade between countries, especially ASEAN countries which are involved in free market economic activities. Foreign currency exchange rates always experience uncertain changes, this is caused by internal and external factors. External factors that affect exchange rates include inflation and interest rates. This study aims to determine the effect of inflation and interest rates on exchange rates in Southeast Asia with reference to the rupiah exchange rate for the period 2014 - 2021. The method used in this study is a quantitative descriptive method using a correlation approach and using a secondary method. data. The results of this study indicate that inflation and interest rates simultaneously have a positive and significant effect on exchange rates, but inflation partially has no positive and significant effect on exchange rates in ASEAN countries.
 Keywords: Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate

International Yield Curves and Currency Puzzles

ABSTRACTThe currency depreciation rate is often computed as the ratio of foreign to domestic pricing kernels. Using bond prices alone to estimate these kernels leads to currency puzzles: the inability of models to match violations of uncovered interest parity and the volatility of exchange rates. This happens because of the FX bond disconnect, the inability of bonds to span exchange rates. Incorporating innovations to the pricing kernel that affect exchange rates but not bonds helps resolve the puzzles. This approach also allows one to relate news about cross‐country differences between international yields to news about currency risk premiums.

How do energy price hikes affect exchange rates during the war in Ukraine?

How do energy price hikes affect exchange rates during the war in Ukraine?

Islamic Versus Conventional Monetary Transmission: Which One Is Better Affecting Exchange Rate?

This study examined the impact of Islamic monetary and conventional transmissions on Indonesia's exchange rate performance. The Islamic monetary transmissions are musyarakah financing (proxied by the ratio of musyarakah to a total loan of conventional banks) and corporate sukuk (asset price), while the conventional transmission is the interbank interest rate (INTERB). Furthermore, this paper also incorporated gold price (GP) (asset price transmission) as a control variable. This study used monthly data from February 2011 to September 2021. By using the ARDL Bound Test, the long run results showed that the performance of Islamic monetary transmission through musyarakah financing has more effect of exchanging rate than INTERB. Therefore, Bank Indonesia should focus on musyarakah financing as its monetary transmission instead of INTERB. In the short run, corporate sukuk and musyarakah financing impact the exchange rate (10% and 1% significant level, respectively), while INTERB and GP can affect the exchange rate with lag (second month onward for each).

Do Lagged Terms Affect Exchange Rate Volatility in India? An Analysis Using ARIMA Model

Under a flexible exchange rate regime, a stable exchange rate is considered a prerequisite condition to attract capital inflows into any economy. Consistency in the exchange rate has become a key objective of the economic policy of developing nations. However, more integration of financial markets under flexible exchange rate policy led to an increase in capital mobility affecting exchange rate volatility. This paper addressed the issue of variation in the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the US dollar under a flexible regime using monthly data spanning from January 2005 to December 2020. By employing an autoregressive integrated moving average model, the study found that volatility in the exchange rate had the potential to affect the exchange rate for a duration of almost three years, which is quite a long duration. The study’s findings suggested that apart from other factors, the sharp changes in the exchange rate should be controlled by the economy because their effect will be reflected in the next period and thus create a chain event to bring further instability to the exchange rate.

Dynamics of Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Turkey: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Analysis

This study examines the factors affecting exchange rate fluctuations in Turkey by employing the quarterly data from 2008 to 2020. In this context, linear and nonlinear unit root tests were used to determine the stationarity levels of the variables. Then, symmetric and asymmetric causality analysis was preferred to ascertain the relationship between the variables. Symmetric causality analysis results indicated a causality relationship from the exchange rate to the long-term debt stock, from the credit default swap (CDS) to the exchange rate, and from the exchange rate to the uncertainty index. The asymmetric causality analysis showed a causality relationship from positive shocks in the short-term debt stock to negative shocks in the exchange rate. Also, it was proven that there exists a causality relationship from negative shocks in the short-term external debt stock to positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate. Another result demonstrated a causality relationship between positive shocks in the exchange rate to negative shocks in the long-term debt stock. In addition, it was found that negative shocks in net capital investment were the cause of negative shocks in the exchange rate, while it was determined that there was a causality relationship from positive shocks in the net reserves to positive shocks in the exchange rate. In conclusion, the asymmetric causality relationship from positive shocks in CDS to positive shocks in exchange rates was detected.