Affect Food Prices Research Articles

Effects of Changing Weather Patterns on Household Food Availability in Bukiro Sub County Mbarara District

Changing weather patterns and their variables are already negatively impacting food security by damaging crops, reducing yields, and increasing the prevalence of pests and diseases. These pests and diseases contend with crops for sunlight, water, and nutrients, further diminishing agricultural yields and creating issues for crops that were previously unexposed to these threats. Climate-related disruptions in food distribution and transportation, both internationally and domestically, have a substantial impact on not just safety and quality but also access to food. Prolonged dry spells followed by heavy and stormy rains cause interruptions in food production and transportation, reducing farmers' ability to get their grains to market and potentially affecting food prices. This study assessed farmers’ perceptions of effects of changing weather patterns on food security and their coping strategies towards effects of weather changing patterns in smallholder households in Bukiro Sub County, Mbarara District. A sample of 100 smallholder farmers were randomly selected from four parishes of Bukiro sub county and studied using questionnaire and observations. Key informants Interviews were also conducted with nine technical workers and three opinion leaders. Software STAT 26 and Ms excel version 2016 were used to do data analysis. The study found out that changing weather patterns through its variables specifically heavy and stormy rains, late of set of rains, and prolonged dry spells had significant effects on food security. The perceived effects of changing weather patterns established were drying up of water sources (83.8%), decreased land for crop growing (82.4%), reduction in crop yields (77.7%), drying of pastures for animals (67.4%), drying of crops (58.1%), and occurrence of crop and livestock pests and diseases at (56.6%). Also, the perceived weather changing variabilities were late onset of rains (60.1%), prolonged dry spells were responded at 17.6%, and heavy and stormy rains 22.3%. From the study finding farmers clearly perceived that changing weather patterns had negative effects smallholders’ agricultural production systems impacting negatively on food security

Does the Exchange Rate Have a Pass-Through Effect on Domestic Food Prices in Türkiye? An Empirical Study Using a Combined ANN Algorithm and VAR Method

Exchange rate fluctuations have far-reaching consequences for national economies, companies and, above all, consumers. It is therefore important to understand the mechanisms by which these fluctuations affect food prices in domestic markets. In this context, we examine the complex relationship between exchange rates and domestic food prices and attempt to calculate the pass-through effect of the exchange rate on domestic prices. To examine the pass-through effect of the exchange rate on food prices, we use monthly USD/TRY exchange rate data from January 2003 to July 2023 as well as the global food price index, the export-import rate for food and the producer price index for food in Türkiye. We employ the vector autoregression (VAR) method to determine the optimal lags of the variables included in the analysis and the artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm to calculate the overall pass-through effect of the USD/TRY exchange rate on domestic food prices. The results show that the pass-through effect of the variable on food prices persists for three months: the current month, the previous month and the two previous months. The total pass-through effect of the exchange rate on food prices reaches up to 27%. Half of this impact comes from the previous month's food prices. In addition, the ratio of food exports to imports accounts for about 12% of the increase in domestic food prices. The results also show that the variable with the highest pass-through effect is the producer price index and that 90% of the increase in food prices is due to domestic dynamics, while the effect of price increases in foreign markets is only about 10%.

The European Green Deal: Implications for Turkey

ABSTRACT Hunger, food insecurity and the ill-informed use of natural resources are issues that concern the whole world, while the excessive use of chemicals, the increasing demands for food, climate change and political instability are posing significant challenges to existing food systems and sustainability. The Green New Deal (GND) seeks to resolve these problems and to support the positive transformation of the agriculture and food sectors. Turkey can be considered an ideal country for an analysis of the GND concept and for understanding its potential impact on the agricultural and food sectors, given its population in the region of 82 million, and its status as the second most populous Mediterranean country. The present study analyzes how the agricultural and food sectors will be affected by the GND, and clarifies the current status of the agricultural and food sectors in Turkey to understand what needs to be done to meet the GND goals. The adverse conditions in Turkey that are of particular note include the lack of R&D activity in the field of renewable energy; micro-scale food security issues; instability in agricultural policy; high inflation affecting food prices; and food losses and problems related to food fraud.

Factors Affecting Food Prices in Pakistan

The purpose of the study is to identify the factors affecting food prices in Pakistan. The findings reveal that there is a negative and significant impact of the real effective exchange rate on wheat prices in the long run. Similarly, the real interest rate affects wheat and rice prices indirectly, while it has a direct impact on tea prices. There is a positive and significant impact of international crude oil prices and international food prices on most food commodities. Moreover, the study explains that in the long run, the increase in local production significantly reduces the prices of food commodities. It is also found that the government policy of adjusting (increasing) wheat support prices also has a positive and significant impact on wheat prices.

The poor do not pay more: Evidence from Tanzanian consumer food expenditures controlling for the food environment

AbstractWe revisit the question of whether the poor pay more for food using household food expenditure data from Tanzania. We control for spatial factors that could affect food prices, namely, whether a rural household is in a peri‐urban, intermediate, or hinterland rural zone (distinguished by distance to urban areas) and whether an urban household is in a primary city, secondary city, or a town. Our results differ from conventional wisdom. First, we find that the rich and the poor pay about the same price per kilogram on average for certain key Tanzanian food products like rice, maize flour, and cooking oil. Second, we find that poor households do not buy meaningfully smaller quantities per transaction than do richer households. Third, the rich and the poor also make roughly the same number of purchases per month for most food products studied. Lastly, we find that bulk discounts (a decrease in price per kilogram with an increase in quantity purchased) do exist, but only up to a certain quantity (with exceptions in some animal proteins), below which few households purchase. Hence, our evidence suggests that poorer Tanzanian households do not pay significantly more for key food products.

How to understand high global food price? Using SHAP to interpret machine learning algorithm.

The global food prices have surged to historical highs, and there is no consensus on the reasons behind this round of price increases in academia. Based on theoretical analysis, this study uses monthly data from January 2000 to May 2022 and machine learning models to examine the root causes of that period's global food price surge and global food security situation. The results show that: Firstly, the increase in the supply of US dollars and the rise in oil prices during pandemic are the two most important variables affecting food prices. The unlimited quantitative easing monetary policy of the US dollar is the primary factor driving the global food price surge, and the alternating impact of oil prices and excessive US dollar liquidity are key features of the surge. Secondly, in the context of the global food shortage, the impact of food production reduction and demand growth expectations on food prices will further increase. Thirdly, attention should be paid to potential agricultural import supply chain risks arising from international uncertainty factors such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has profoundly impacted the global agricultural supply chain, and crude oil and fertilizers have gradually become the main driving force behind the rise in food prices.

The effects of the oil price and temperature on food inflation in Latin America.

The impacts on food prices of temperature, the oil price, the exchange rate and wages in the agricultural industry were examined via a structural vector autoregression model and panel Granger causality test, using monthly data between January 2003 and December 2020 for Latin American countries. The paper concerns how much the determinants affect food prices. Empirical findings show that the oil price and temperature can be significant factors for reducing food inflation. According to the result of variance decomposition, in general, a considerable part of food inflation was explained by the exchange rate, but its effect did not show any significant change in the long term. The impacts of the oil price and temperature were limited in the early months, but they created larger changes over time. Impulse response function and the Granger causality test also indicated that exchange rate was a crucial dynamic in explaining food inflation in all countries except Ecuador. This country successfully mitigated the negative effect of the exchange rate, but the oil price and temperature had an impact on food inflation. All results indicate that both monetary and fiscal policies are essential to control food prices. These countries can accomplish this by conventional policies or by radical institutional changes. Nevertheless, the oil price and temperature are external dynamics, and crucial in creating alternative policies to control food inflation.

Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Crude Oil on Food Prices in India: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Investigation

This pragmatic investigation examined the impact of policy uncertainty and crude oil prices on food inflation in India. The findings revealed that there was a long-run relationship between food inflation, economic policy uncertainty, and crude oil prices. On the other hand, the relevant results showed that, in the long run, the crude oil price significantly influenced the current food price in India. At the same time, economic policy uncertainty does not affect food prices in India. Furthermore, unrestricted NARDL demonstrated no long-run or short-run asymmetric effect of economic policy uncertainty and crude oil costs on food prices in India. The examination supported the notion of the cobweb model from the Indian perspective. In terms of policy implications, research results emphasize the need for crude oil price management to control food inflation in India.

Causality of geopolitical risk on food prices: Considering the Russo–Ukrainian conflict

As the Russo–Ukrainian conflict obstructs the vast wheat production of Ukraine, we investigate the relationship over crises between geopolitical risk and prices of essential food commodities. We use multiresolution analysis to identify patterns concealed by high noise levels inherent with commodity prices during crises. Our sample includes such important periods as Brexit, COVID-19, and the current Russo–Ukrainian conflict. Results evidence a one-way causal relationship, with geopolitical factors significantly affecting food prices. Scholars interested in global development, as well as policy makers and international aid organizations will be especially interested in understanding the sensitivity of food prices to geopolitical risk.

Does the eviction of street vendors affect food prices? Evidence from China's chengguan system

The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the eviction of street vendors on household food prices. Existing studies suggest the removal of street vendors have impacts on consumer welfare, but few of them have quantified the impact empirically. Employing a unique dataset of city-level food prices, we find that the establishment of chengguan (formally, the Urban Administration and Law Enforcement Bureau) has a positive and significant impact on the average prices of fruits and vegetables. Evicted by chengguan, the absence of street vendors leads to increase in prices of fruits and vegetables by approximately 4.7% all else being equal. Further investigation suggests that cities with less developed retail markets and more stringent administrative enforcement experience a larger price increase led by the establishment of chengguan. Our results provide insights on the role of street vendors in supplying inexpensive goods. Interventions that foster market competition can help mitigate the price effect led by the absence of street vendors.

An analysis of food demand in a fragile and insecure country: Somalia as a case study

We present an analysis of household level food demand for Somalia, which is emerging from a destructive twenty-year civil war. Using novel World Bank household survey data collected in 2018, we estimate demand elasticities for Somalia taking account of differences in household type, regional conflict, and income remittances from overseas. Our results reveal the extent to which household food consumption, as represented by expenditure, own and cross price elasticities, is highly sensitive to income shocks, especially for animal products such as meat and milk which are the main sources of protein for the population. Furthermore, the impact of an exogenous income shock, affecting food prices and household budgets, will likely result in a less diversified diet because of more emphasis on cereal consumption, especially for nomadic households. The resulting negative macronutrient implications have obvious consequences for levels of malnutrition. As such, improved food security is critical for Somalia’s economic recovery and resilience in the future.

Türkiye’deki Gıda Fiyatlarını Anlamak: Derinlemesine Mülakat Yaklaşımı

Soaring domestic food prices, which negatively affect poverty and consumer price index, cause dissatisfaction all over the world. Turkey is one of the countries suffering from food price inflation in recent years, especially in 2018. For instance, in October 2018, food prices increased by approximately 30 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. The present study aims to determine the drivers of food prices in Turkey by using an in-depth interview approach as a qualitative method. Within the scope of this study, experts in agriculture and food sectors are interviewed, and the data obtained are interpreted with the NVivo 12 qualitative data analysis program. Based on our findings, supply-side drivers are more significant than demand-side factors in Turkey. In particular, input costs play a pivotal role in periods of depreciation of the Turkish Lira since agricultural inputs such as energy, fertilizers, animal feedingstaffs and pesticides are highly dependent on imports. Moreover, Turkey’s agricultural sector has structural problems that cannot be solved for many years. These are migration and ageing rural population, low technology and productivity, fragmented and abandoned agricultural areas, the level of education, small-scale farming, non-modern greenhouses, financing, and irrigation problems. Turkey also does not have complete and well-classified agricultural data. This is one of the main obstacles to achieving better policies for Turkish agriculture. Furthermore, it is seen that import decisions harm domestic production. Most strikingly, competition challenges and collusion-prone structures across the entire food supply chain prevent a healthy price formation. On the other hand, demand-side drivers such as export, changes in food preferences, population growth, income growth, increasing number of tourists and refugees, and food waste are also significant drivers affecting food prices in Turkey.

OIL AND FOOD PRICES FOR A NET OIL IMPORTING-COUNTRY: HOW ARE RELATED IN INDONESIA?

Our study examines the asymmetric responses of food prices to oil prices in Indonesia as a net oil and food-importing country. We apply non-linear autoregressive distributed lag to investigate the responses of food prices to oil prices. Due to the different impacts of oil price on sub-component of the food price index, this study decomposes the general food prices index into 11 sub-components food price indices. The oil prices asymmetrically affect food prices but incomplete pass-through except the preserved fish prices. The highest impact of oil price is on beans and nuts prices, followed by cereals, roots, and their product prices. More interestingly, the response of food price to an increase in oil price is higher than the response of food price to a decrease in oil price known as rockets and feathers phenomenon for general food prices, cereals, roots, and their product prices, meat and its product prices, eggs, milk, and their product prices, bean and nuts prices, fruit prices, and fats and oil prices.

Dynamics of Food Inflation: Assessing the Role of Intermediaries

The recent upsurge in the food prices experienced by the Indian economy since the latter half of 2000s has made it imperative for the policymakers to identify the crucial factors, which affect food prices within the economy. Against this backdrop, the present article determines the various key factors impacting the prices of food grains, specifically elucidating the role of intermediaries in this regard. By applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and quantifying the role of intermediaries by computing the price wedge between wholesale and retail prices of food grains, the study establishes the existence of both short-run and long-run relationships between price wedge and food grain inflation.

Spekulation am Terminmarkt und die Preisentwicklung von Agrarrohstoffen am Kassamarkt: Eine Zeitreihenanalyse der CFTC Berichte für Weizen, Mais und Sojabohnen / Speculation in Futures Markets and the Impact on Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Time Series Analysis of the CFTC Reports for Wheat, Corn and Soybeans

Summary Over the last few years, rising prices and increasing price volatility of major agricultural food commodities were observed. This caused a debate among various organizations about who is responsible for this development. While many Non-Governmental Organizations proclaim that speculations in future markets cause the rise in food prices, academic research provides ambiguous results on this topic. This controversy is the motivation for this study. In order to offer additional insights, the relationship between the price changes of corn, wheat, and soybeans and the corresponding changes in open interests are analyzed. Commitments of Traders as well as Disaggregated Commitments of Traders reports are investigated to determine whether the activities of speculators adversely affect food prices. First, Johansen cointegration tests are employed to analyze the relationship between price and position data. Second, VAR and VECM are used to analyze short- and long-term dynamics. The results of the empirical analysis demonstrate that in the short-run price changes precede changes in open interest. Additionally, soybeans show a long-run equilibrium relationship between both series, indicating that speculators influenced past prices to some extent. However, the percentage price change is rather low. Therefore, sharp rises in soybean prices cannot be explained by it.

Global Oil Prices and Local Food Prices: Evidence from East Africa

It is widely believed that oil prices impact food prices in developing countries. Yet rigorous evidence on this relationship is scarce. Using maize and petrol price data from east Africa, we show that global oil prices do affect food prices but primarily through transport costs, rather than through biofuel or production cost channels. We find that global oil prices transmit much more rapidly to the pump and then to local maize prices than do global maize prices, suggesting that the immediate effects of correlated commodity price shocks on local food prices are driven more by transport costs than by the prices of the grains themselves. Furthermore, we present suggestive evidence that, for markets furthest inland, changes in world oil prices have larger effects on local maize prices than do changes in world maize prices.

Do the Spanish want biodiesel? A case study in the Catalan transport sector

In this paper, we analyse the opinions, attitudes and willingness of consumers to pay for biodiesel as an alternative to diesel in Barcelona province. Data were gathered from face-to-face structured questionnaires from 300 diesel car owners/users that regularly purchase fuel. A variation of the traditional choice experiments (CE) was used by excluding the price attribute from the design. In a subsequent contingent valuation (CV) exercise, respondents were asked to state their maximum willingness to pay (WTP) for their preferred choice sets using the “payment card” format. The relative importance of the attributes and levels were calculated by estimating a random parameter logit model. The results demonstrated, contrary to the literature in Spain, that consumers were not willing to pay for biodiesel, especially when its production may negatively affect food prices. The main limitation was that car manufacturers do not recommend its use as it may lead to engine failure. The public authorities are asked to work jointly with the automotive industry to address this drawback.

Factors Affecting Food Price Inflation in Pakistan

Food Price inflation an economic challenge in global world. The objective of the study is to examine the demand pull and cost push variables that affect food prices inflation. We use time series annual data from 1980-2013. Data is generated from various issues economic survey of Pakistan and world development indicators. We applied ADF test, Johansen’s co-integration technique, and VECM to analyze the long term and short run relationship between the variables. The result obtained from double log model explores that most significant demand pull and cost push variables are fertilizer prices, fuel prices, money supply, per capita GDP, and foreign aid which are positively related with food prices while exchange rate is inversely related with food prices in Pakistan. The error correction model is also statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring long-run equilibrium.

Food Policy Approaches to Obesity Prevention: An International Perspective.

This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the recent obesity prevention-related food policies initiated in countries worldwide. We searched and reviewed relevant research papers and government documents, focusing on those related to dietary guidelines, food labeling, regulation of food marketing, and policies affecting food prices. We also commented on the effects and challenges of some of the related policy options. There are large variations regarding what, when, and how policies have been implemented across countries. Clearly, developed countries are leading the effort, and developing countries are starting to develop some related policies. The encouraging message is that many countries have been adopting policies that might help prevent obesity and that the support for more related initiatives is strong and continues to grow. Communicating information about these practices will help researchers, public health professionals, and policy makers around the world to take action to fight the growing epidemic of obesity and other nutrition-related diseases.

European biodiesel market and rapeseed oil: what impact on agricultural food prices?

The last decade has seen a rapid increase in the production and consumption of biodiesel in the EU. This development has been especially stimulated by EU policy as a means to promote energy security and to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. However, in recent years, biodiesel production has been questioned due to the possible impact on food prices. This paper aims to explore the impact of EU biodiesel prices on diesel and rapeseed oil prices, using a Vector Error Corrections Model (VECM). Impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions are also computed in order to investigate the interrelationships within the relevant time series. Unlike the predominant literature, which mainly addresses the US and Brazilian ethanol sector, this paper focuses on the European biodiesel market. Our results suggest that biodiesel prices are mainly affected by feedstock prices, but there is no strong evidence that changes in biodiesel prices affect food prices.