Affect Crime Rates Research Articles

A Place of Last Drink Initiative: Effects on Various Types of Crime

Background Place of last drink (POLD) is a law enforcement strategy designed to decrease the service of alcohol to intoxicated patrons (i.e., overservice). When officers respond to an alcohol-related incident, they inquire about and record the place where the involved individuals last drank alcohol; this information can help identify licensed alcohol establishments that show a pattern of overserving alcohol. We evaluated the effects of a POLD initiative on various types of crime. Methods The POLD initiative was conducted in the state of Minnesota (USA). We compared 26 intervention jurisdictions to 26 matched comparisons. Outcomes were six crime measures (e.g., driving under the influence, violent, nonviolent). Predictors were levels of participation and implementation of POLD. We fit a separate Poisson regression model for each crime outcome and each predictor. Results In all models, we found little difference in crime rates between intervention and comparison jurisdictions. No effect on crime was observed for either participation or implementation levels of POLD. However, we found implementation levels were relatively low across jurisdictions. Conclusion This study adds to a very limited literature addressing the effects of POLD on public health harms such as crime. The particular POLD initiative did not appear to affect crime rates. We found POLD implementation levels showed considerable room for improvement and could help to explain some of the lack of effects of POLD on crime. More research is needed in additional localities and to assess whether specific aspects of implementation could help to strengthen POLD efforts.

How Population Density and Welfare Affect Crime Rates: A Study in East Java Province, Indonesia

Purpose: A one-fold increase in population has the potential to increase the per capita crime rate by more than two times and possibly four or six times. In a country with a large population like Indonesia, the threat of crime can occur at any time. An increase in crime can also occur due to declining welfare levels such as during a recession in a country. Therefore, this study aims to see how population density and welfare affect crime rates. Desaign/methodology/data analysis: The analysis used panel data from 38 regencies/cities in East Java province. This study separates the forms of crime based on the type so that the results will be more in-depth. The methods used are the Common Effect Model, Fixed Effect Model and Random Effect Model. Finding: The results of this study show that per capita income and population density affect the crime rate in East Java. It found no significant association between economic shock and crime rates. When a shock occurs, government policy will provide peace for the community. So, they will focus more on improving their economic conditions rather than committing crimes. Originality/value: This study provides a valuable empirical contribution by analyzing how population density and welfare impact the increase in crime in the community. This study examines the impact that occurs when an area experiences an economic shock that causes its welfare to decline, whether it will make people tend to commit crimes or focus on economic improvement. Practical Implication: In densely populated areas, even though their welfare has declined due to economic shocks, it turns out that people are more focused on making economic improvements than committing criminal acts to improve their welfare. This is because of government intervention through policies that guarantee the economy so that people feel safe and can work and do better.

HOW POPULATION DENSITY AND WELFARE AFFECT CRIME RATES: A STUDY IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE, INDONESIA

Purpose: A one-fold increase in population has the potential to increase the per capita crime rate by more than two times and possibly four or six times. In a country with a large population like Indonesia, the threat of crime can occur at any time. An increase in crime can also occur due to declining welfare levels such as during a recession in a country. Therefore, this study aims to see how population density and welfare affect crime rates. Desaign/methodology/data analysis: The analysis used panel data from 38 regencies/cities in East Java province. This study separates the forms of crime based on the type so that the results will be more in-depth. The methods used are the Common Effect Model, Fixed Effect Model and Random Effect Model. Finding: The results of this study show that per capita income and population density affect the crime rate in East Java. It found no significant association between economic shock and crime rates. When a shock occurs, government policy will provide peace for the community. So, they will focus more on improving their economic conditions rather than committing crimes. Originality/value: This study provides a valuable empirical contribution by analyzing how population density and welfare impact the increase in crime in the community. This study examines the impact that occurs when an area experiences an economic shock that causes its welfare to decline, whether it will make people tend to commit crimes or focus on economic improvement. Practical Implication: In densely populated areas, even though their welfare has declined due to economic shocks, it turns out that people are more focused on making economic improvements than committing criminal acts to improve their welfare. This is because of government intervention through policies that guarantee the economy so that people feel safe and can work and do better.

The Dynamic Between Economic Factors and Violent Crime Rates: A Comparative Analysis of Global Trends and Legislations

This paper explores the relationship between macroeconomic factors and crime rates, focusing on case studies. It examines the question: to what extent do macroeconomic factors influence global violent crime rates, and how do legislative interventions affect this dynamic? The methodology employs quantitative analysis of various economic indicators alongside qualitative case studies of the United States of America, Japan, Malaysia, and Romania. Findings suggest a significant impact of economic factors on crime rates. The dynamic between unemployment and inflation is crucial to decoding general trends; however, other factors such as region, inequality, and poverty also affect crime rates. While economic variables play a role, other social, cultural, and legislative factors also contribute to crime dynamics. The cohesion between economic stability and legislative interventions emerges as a crucial determinant in shaping societal safety and well-being.

Do refugees impact crime? Causal evidence from large-scale refugee immigration to Germany

Does large-scale refugee immigration affect crime rates in receiving countries? We address this question based on the large and unexpected refugee inflow to Germany that peaked in 2015–2016. Arriving refugees were dispersed across the country based on a binding dispersal policy, yet we show that systematic regional sorting remains. Our empirical approach examines spatial correlations between refugee inflows and crime rates using the administrative allocation quotas as instrumental variables. Our results indicate that crime rates were not affected during the year of refugee arrival, but there was an increase in crime rates one year later. This lagged effect is small per refugee but large in absolute terms and is strongest for property and violent crimes. The crime effects are robust across specifications and in line with increased suspect rates for offenders from refugees’ origin countries. Yet, we find some indication of over-reporting.

Does an Ageing Population Affect Crime Rates in the United States?

Does an Ageing Population Affect Crime Rates in the United States?

The Spatial Patterns of the Crime Rate in London and Its Socio-Economic Influence Factors

This paper analyses the spatial trends and patterns of the crime rates in London and explores how socio-economic characteristics affect crime rates with consideration of the geographic context across London. The 2015 London Crime Statistics and Socio-economic Characteristics datasets were used. First, we investigated the spatial patterns of crime rates through exploratory spatial analysis at the ward level. In addition, both the ordinary least square (OLS) model and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, which allow the effects of factors to vary in spatial scales, were adopted and compared to explore the potential spatially varying effect across London. The results showed that there exists obvious spatial clustering for the crime rate in central London. Both global and local Moran’s I values indicated the spatial dependence of crime at the ward level. The GWR model performed better in explaining crime rates than the OLS model. Only two factors, namely, the percentage of children aged from 0 to 15 and employment rates, had significant spatial variability in London. The influences of the percentage of children aged 0 to 15 on crime rates are constantly negative over a spatial scale; however, employment rates positively affect crime rates in the north-western areas near the centre of London. Therefore, this paper focuses more on the spatial perspective, which fills the gap in traditional crime analysis, especially on the spatially varying influence of socio-economic status.

The State and Dynamics of the Criminal Situation at the Transport Facilities of the Russian Federation in the Context of the Developing Geopolitical Crisis

Introduction. The article describes the dynamics of the criminal situation at the transport infrastructure facilities of the Russian Federation in 2022 Based on the analysis of changes in the operational situation in transport over the past five years, taking into account the influence of previously non-existent factors that arose as a result of the introduction of anti-covert measures in 2020-2021 and openly hostile actions of Western countries directed against Russia, which has been conducting since February 2022 a special military operation in Ukraine, the conditions for the development of the criminal situation in transport are considered. The analysis of the criminal situation on transport in Russia during the period under study allows us to consider the trends of crime not only from the angle of its criminal-legal nature, but also from the perspective of the influence of ongoing social processes on it. The paper identifies the factors affecting crime rates at transport facilities in the current conditions, estimates of options for possible development of the criminal situation are derived, priority areas of law enforcement agencies' activities to minimize crime at transport facilities are formulated.Materials and methods. The theoretical basis of the study was the conclusions and achievements of criminological science on crime, scientific provisions on crime as a social phenomenon, on factors affecting the dynamics of crime. General scientific and private scientific research methods (synthesis, deduction, analysis, generalization, observation, etc.) were used in the work. The methodological basis of the research was a systematic approach, comparative and problem approaches.The results of the study. As a result of the analysis of the criminal situation at the transport facilities of the Russian Federation, it was found that, starting from 2020, new factors influenced the quantitative indicators of crime in transport. The introduction of restrictive measures related to the spread of coronavirus infection, their subsequent cancellation, the beginning of the geopolitical crisis in the world, provoked by the introduction of sanctions by Western countries against Russia, restrictions on international communications. closure of airports, borders, etc. they affected the directions of preventive activities of the internal affairs bodies in transport. The conclusions and forecasts made in the article determine the trends in the development of the criminal situation in transport in 2023 and allow us to determine the most important vectors of the direction of preventive activities of internal affairs bodies. Discussion and conclusion. The article identifies and substantiates the priority areas of activity of the internal affairs bodies of Russia in transport for the most effective organization of preventive activities and combating crime.

Reforming justice under a security crisis: The case of the criminal justice reform in Mexico

This paper assesses how the adoption of a common-law style model affects crime rates, pretrial detention, and judicial efficiency measures. We do this in the context of Mexico, where a judicial reform was fully implemented by 2016, both on the state and federal levels. Using a generalized synthetic control group approach (Xu, 2017) and municipality-level administrative data for the years 1997–2012, we find that the reform increased the homicide rate and was accompanied by a reduction in the use of pretrial detention for property crimes in the early implementer municipalities. The increase in the homicide rate was, nonetheless, much greater in the municipalities with established organized crime presence, where we also observed a greater reduction in the capacity to effectively prosecute homicides. Our results describe the difficulties in implementing this kind of reform in developing countries experiencing security crises.

Neighborhood Effects on Crime: The Concentration of Racial/Ethnic Groups and the Heterogeneity Among Such Groups

It is not entirely clear what attribute of neighborhoods’ race/ethnicity affects crime rates over time. Drawing on a sample of block groups in Baltimore (MD) we therefore estimate negative binomial regression models to test the concentration of specific ethnic groups in neighborhoods (% Black, % White, % Latino, % Asian, and % other race) as well as the level of heterogeneity among these groups. The results show that ethnic heterogeneity is associated with higher rates of both violent and property crime years later, whereas the measures of nonwhite ethnic groups are not significant. We also determine that concentrated disadvantage moderates the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on property crime. The implications of these findings for criminology and urban sociology are discussed.

Crime in a Time of Cannabis: Estimating the Effect of Legalizing Marijuana on Crime Rates in Colorado and Washington Using the Synthetic Control Method

The legalization of marijuana for recreational use continues to expand across America. Colorado and Washington were the first states to legalize marijuana in 2012. A primary concern regarding legalization is how these policy changes affect crime rates. Researchers have begun to estimate the effect marijuana legalization has had on crime rates. We extend this literature by using a different analytical approach. State level data covering years 2000–2019 were analyzed using the synthetic control method to find that legalizing marijuana for recreational use in Colorado and Washington was generally not associated with variations in index crime rates. These findings substantiate prior research. Increased crime rates should not be a primary concern as more states move to adopt recreational marijuana use legislation. Instead, the benefits to states via harm reduction, increased tax revenue, and a more efficient allocation of policing resources ought to be more of a consideration for states when passing recreational marijuana legislation.

Did Secure Communities Lead to Safer Communities? Immigration Enforcement, Crime Deterrence, and Geographical Externalities

Abstract Secure Communities is a recently introduced immigration enforcement policy in the United States, intended to improve public safety by making it easier to identify and deport criminal immigrants and immigration violators. In this article, we examine the effect of Secure Communities on crime by utilizing the variation in its timing of activation across counties. We extend previous research by exploring potential crime spillovers associated with Secure Communities, in which its activation in one jurisdiction affects crime rates in a neighboring jurisdiction. Estimation results suggest that the activation of Secure Communities influenced crime rates in both the activated area and neighboring areas in important ways. We find that Secure Communities led to a significant crime reduction in the activated area if it is also activated in neighboring areas, but no significant local crime reduction is observed if not activated in neighboring areas. Likewise, its activation is often associated with significant crime spillovers into neighboring areas, but this displacement effect is often completely eliminated if Secure Communities is activated in the neighboring areas as well.

The U-shaped crime recovery during COVID-19: evidence from national crime rates in Mexico

The existing empirical evidence suggests a reduction in aggregate crime as a consequence of the COVID-19 lockdown. However, what happens when lockdown measures are relaxed? This paper considers how the COVID-19 pandemic affects crime rates throughout Mexico when the stay-at-home orders end. We use national crime data from Mexico’s National Public Security System, which reports municipality-level rates on assault & battery, theft & property crime, fraud, drug crimes & extortion, and homicides. Our results show that the majority of crimes follow a U-shaped trend—when the lockdown ends—crimes rise back to pre-pandemic levels.

Forecasting homicides, rapes and counterfeiting currency: A case study in Sri Lanka

Crimes have been disturbing threats to all the Sri Lankans all over the country. Finding the main variables associated with crimes are very vital for policymakers. Our main goal in this study is to forecast of homicides, rapes and counterfeiting currency from 2013 to 2020 using auto-regressive conditional Poisson (ACP) and auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. All the predictions are made assuming that the prevailing conditions in the country affecting crime rates remain unchanged during the period. Moreover, multiple linear regression and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analysis were used to identify the key variables associated with crimes. Profiling of districts as safe or unsafe was performed based on the overall total crime rate of Sri Lanka which is to compare with individual district’s crime rates. Data were collected from the Department of Police and Department of Census and Statistics, Sri Lanka. It is observed that there are 14 safe and 11 unsafe districts in Sri Lanka. Moreover, it is found that the total migrant population and percentage of urban population is positively correlated with total crime. Besides, total migrant population, unemployment rate, mean household income and percentage of the urban population are significant variables for total crimes, and total migrant population, Gini index, mean household income and percentage of the urban population are significant variables for homicides. Random K-nearest neighbour (RKNN) algorithm classified districts as safe and unsafe with 84% of prediction accuracy.

The U-shaped Crime Recovery during COVID-19: Evidence from National Crime Rates in Mexico

The existing empirical evidence suggests a reduction in aggregate crime as a consequence of the COVID-19 lockdown. However, what happens when lockdown measures are relaxed? This paper considers how the COVID-19 pandemic affects crime rates throughout Mexico when the stay-at-home orders end. We use national crime data from Mexico’s National Public Security System, which reports municipality-level homicides, drug crime, extortion, battery, theft, fraud, property crime, and assault. We track monthly changes in crime rates using an event-study design. Our results show that battery, theft, fraud, property crime, and assault follow a U-shaped trend. The U-shaped indicates that when the lockdown ends, conventional crimes rise back to pre-pandemic levels.

Evaluation of CPTED principles in the housing architecture of rural areas in the North of Iran (Case studies: Sedaposhte and Ormamalal)

Rural crime can be a cause of some problems for villagers; however, less attention has been paid to security in rural areas. In this study, it is tried to answer whether the variety of rural architecture of houses in villages in the North of Iran can affect crime rates. Therefore, the positive and negative impacts of the designed built environment on crime prevention have been assessed. For this purpose, two villages as case studies, Sedaposhte and Ormamalal, with different architecture and landscaping are analyzed from the CPTED (Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design) approach. After surveying thirty houses in each village and observation different sites, the results demonstrate that some reasons, namely the areas of openings and verandas, hierarchy of spaces, placement of storehouses, types of entrance and fence in residential buildings, and quality of the maintenance of neighborhoods can play vital roles in the decline of residential and farm burglary.

Unemployment and Crime Nexus in European Union Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Unemployment is crucial and a chronic problem for many economies due to the its social and economic cost dimensions. The problem of unemployment, which causes economies to produce below their potential level of production, can also lead to a number of social problems. In this study, it was investigated whether unemployment had any effect on crime rates. The effect of unemployment on crime rates in EU-28 was examined for the period 1993-2016 and dataset were obtained from World Bank and Eurostat sources. There are numerous studies examining the relationship between unemployment and crime. However, with this study, it is evaluated that analyzing this relationship on EU-28 that consists of both developed and developing countries will provide general information on the relationship between unemployment and crime rates for all economies. In addition, the fact that the study was conducted with contemporary methods and datasets provides up-to-date analysis findings on the subject. In this study, second generation panel cointegration and causality tests were applied on EU-28 in order to analyse the relationship between unemployment and crime rates, and reciprocal dependence between countries. The cointegration relationship was examined by Westerlund cointegration test and causality relationship was evaluated by Panel Granger Causality Test. The Westerlund Cointegration Test’s findings show that there is a long-term relationship between unemployment and crime rates. At the same time, Panel Granger Causality Test results revealed that the causality relationship is from unemployment to crime rates. The results obtained by Panel Dynamic Least Squares method, model coefficients confirm that increase in unemployment rates positively affect crime rates. According to the results, the measures to combating of unemployment reduction can also provides a reduction in crime rates, as in the case of EU-28 countries, this also confirms that by reducing crime rates, societies will be safer and more prosperious.

Sharing the Monopoly on Violence? Shall-Issue Concealed Handgun License Laws and Responsibilization

Although research has examined if concealed handgun licensing laws may affect crime rates by enabling gun carry in public, the determinants of these policies have received less attention. Drawing on the thesis of the new criminologies of everyday life and the more recent conceptualization of sovereign subjects, this study posits that the expansion of shall-issue concealed handgun laws in the United States is a product of low-collective security in states. Understanding that shall-issue laws reflect state efforts to responsibilize firearm carrying, shall-issue laws are more likely to become state policy when a state has lower rates of police officers and lower per capita spending on police and corrections. Results from discrete-time, event history analyses indicate that shall-issue laws are, indeed, related to reduced capacities to provide collective security, independent of competing political and social correlates. This understanding of why states adopt such gun laws appears to be unique to shall-issue laws and has little explanatory power for newer unrestricted concealed handgun laws.

Crime and the minimum wage

How does the minimum wage affect crime rates? Empirical research suggests that increasing a worker's wage can deter him from committing crimes. On the other hand, if that worker becomes displaced as a result of the minimum wage, he may be more likely to commit a crime. In this paper, I describe a frictional world in which a worker's criminal actions are linked to his labor market outcomes. The model is calibrated to match labor market outcomes and crime decisions of workers from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, and shows that the relationship between the aggregate crime rate and the minimum wage is U-shaped. The results from the calibrated model, as well as empirical evidence from county level crime data and state level minimum wage changes from 1995 to 2014, suggest that the crime minimizing minimum to median wage ratio for 16 to 19 year olds is 0.91. However, the welfare maximizing minimum to median wage ratio is 0.87, not equal to the crime minimizing value. The median wage of 16 to 19 year olds in the United States in 2018 was $10, suggesting that any federal minimum wage increase up to $8.70 may be welfare improving.

How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions

Despite dozens of studies, research on crime has struggled to reach consensus about the impact of right-to-carry (RTC) gun laws. With this in mind, we formalize and apply a class of bounded-variation assumptions that flexibly restrict the degree to which outcomes may vary across time and space. Using these assumptions, we present empirical analysis of the effect of RTC laws on violent and property crimes in Virginia, Maryland, and Illinois. Imposing specific assumptions that we believe worthy of consideration, we find that RTC laws increase some crimes, decrease other crimes, and have effects that vary over time for others.