Monitoring airborne nanoparticles has a vital role in indoor air quality control due to their hazardous effects on human health. Detecting particles becomes more challenging as their sizes decrease. While research-grade instruments like the scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) can provide detailed and useful information, they are not practical for personal use due to their size and cost. This study aims to provide a comparable prediction of the temporal size distribution of ultrafine particles (UFPs, <100nm) using mid-cost measurements from a handheld particle sizer, which is more economical but has a narrower detectable size range. To achieve this, the study builds upon a computational modeling approach based on a mass-balance equation to estimate the time-varying particle size distribution, while accounting for particle evolution processes such as coagulation, deposition, and ventilation. The analytical model for indoor UFPs requires prior information regarding particle dynamic behavior, such as the size-resolved deposition rate and source emission rate. This study estimates, rather than pre-determines, the model parameters required for the temporal prediction of indoor UFP size distribution by applying Bayesian parameter inference with the analytical model of indoor aerosol. The results indicate that the present model reasonably predicts the temporal evolution of particle distributions, comparable to that of the SMPS. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the identifiability of model parameters, considering both the entire and detectable size ranges, through variance-based global sensitivity analysis.
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