Advection Of Dry Air Research Articles

Oceanic maintenance of atmospheric blocking in wintertime in the North Atlantic

The connection between atmospheric blocking over the North Atlantic and the diabatic influence of the Gulf Stream is investigated using potential vorticity and moist potential vorticity diagnostics in the ERA5 reanalysis data set during wintertime (1979 - 2020). In line with previous research, the reliance atmospheric blocking has on turbulent heat fluxes over the Gulf Stream and its extension, for induction and maintenance, is shown to be significant. The air-sea heat flux generates negative potential vorticity air masses in the atmospheric boundary layer. These air masses subsequently contribute to the block’s negative potential vorticity anomaly at upper levels through ascending motion in the warm conveyor belt. It is shown that the block’s size and frequency partially depends on oceanic preconditioning via anomalous oceanic heat transport and heat content, prior to the blocking event, both of which allow for stronger turbulent heat fluxes. It is further hypothesized that the block feeds back positively on itself through the advection of cold dry air over the Gulf Stream, sustaining this air-sea interaction. This in turn decreases ocean heat content, eventually halting this air-sea interaction and severing the atmospheric block from its maintenance pathway.

Extreme dry advection dominates the record-breaking Yangtze River heatwave in midsummer of 2022

The Yangtze River Valley (YRV) experienced an unprecedented heatwave in midsummer of 2022. Still, the detailed physical processes involved in the influence of abnormal large-scale atmospheric circulation on the heatwave remain unexplored. Here, we show that the positive meridional gradient of anomalous atmospheric moisture at the middle-lower troposphere and associated extreme dry air advection over the YRV are vital prerequisites for forming the 2022 YRV heatwave. The 2022 YRV heatwave is dominated by interannual variability, contributing 72.7% to the total temperature anomalies. Diagnosis of the surface heat budget equation indicates that the surface cloud radiative forcing is the most critical process in driving the 2022 YRV heatwave, which is dominated by the positive surface short-wave cloud radiative forcing associated with the suppressed precipitation and the middle-low clouds. The suppressed precipitation is induced by the vertical dynamical processes of anomalous moisture advection caused by the abnormal descending flows over the YRV, which are driven by the negative advection of anomalous latent heat energy by climatological meridional wind (anomalous dry air advection) according to the atmospheric moist static energy equation. Simulations from the Lagrangian model FLEXPART further indicate that the moisture anomaly over the north of YRV mainly originated from the surface evaporation in the YRV, implying that there is a positive land-air feedback during the life cycle of the YRV heatwave. Our study enriches the mechanism understanding of the 2022 YRV heatwave from the perspective of surface energy budget and land-air feedback.

Drivers of Caribbean precipitation change due to global warming: analyses and emergent constraint of CMIP6 simulations

Using 31 CMIP6 models we have analyzed projected future Caribbean precipitation. The model mean projection results in a 0.5 mm/day (20%) drying under a SSP5-8.5 scenario for the end of this century over the Caribbean basin. The multi-model spread is large ranging from no drying to a 1 mm/day (40%) reduction in mean precipitation. Eastern and central Pacific warming, resembling an El Niño / positive phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), appears to be the main driver by shifting and weakening the Walker circulation and inducing subsidence over the Caribbean, especially during the wet season (May–November). This applies for the model mean as well as for the inter-model spread. During the dry season (December–April) the southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the advection of dry air from outside the Caribbean seem to be the dominant drivers of the projected drying. Another mechanism that contributes to the drying is the land-sea contrasts that induce divergence/convergence over the Caribbean. The incapability of CMIP6 models to simulate the current tropical Pacific warming and Walker circulation trends questions the reliability of precipitation projections in the Caribbean. Based on our understanding of the physical processes affecting Caribbean drying and on an emergent constraint analysis we state that the future drying in the Caribbean is likely to be weaker than the one projected by CMIP6 models.

Snow algal blooms in Antarctic King George Island in 2017–2022 and their future trend based on CMIP6 projection

Snow algal blooms have a remarkable climatic or environmental effect through influencing the snow–albedo feedback, accelerating the melting of surface snow, and amplifying global warming. Snow algal blooms occurred frequently on King George Island, Antarctic, during the recent six austral summers (December to next February) through 2017–2022. Based on an assessment of satellite images, this study found that the range and amount of snow algal blooms in the summers of 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022 are relatively larger than in the summers of 2017 and 2019. Whether meteorological conditions have shaped the year-to-year variation of algal bloom intensities is analyzed through observational composite. The results suggest that during the strong bloom summers there exist prevailing northerly or northwesterly wind anomalies which advect warm and humid airmass from the southern ocean into the island, increasing surface air temperature and humidity; the warmer and more humid surface favors melting of snow and an increase of low cloud cover, subsequently enhancing the atmospheric downward long-wave radiation and amplifying surface warmth; the increased low cloud cover reflects more ultraviolet rays back to space and weakens the short-wave radiation reaching the surface. All these factors together favor to a stronger bloom. In comparison, during 2017 and 2019 there exist weak southerly wind anomalies which induce the northward advection of cold and dry air from the Antarctic Continent and favor the cooler surface. Consequently, it is unfavorable for the snow algal bloom. Based on these results, a snow algal bloom potential index (API) integrating the meteorological conditions is constructed, and its future trend is projected based on the EC-Earth3 run attending the CMIP6 under SSP245 and SSP585. A significant increasing trend is projected especially under SSP585. Thus snow algal bloom on King George Island will become more frequent and stronger in future. This implies a potential accelerate melting of ice shelf over Antarctic Peninsula.

Atmospheric response to cold wintertime Tibetan Plateau conditions over eastern Asia in climate models

Abstract. Central Asian orography (namely the Tibetan and Mongolian plateaux) sets important features of the winter climate over eastern Asia and the Pacific. By deflecting the mid-latitude jet polewards it contributes to the formation of the Siberian high and, on the lee side, to the advection of dry cold continental air over the eastern Asian coast and the Pacific Ocean, where atmospheric instability and cyclogenesis thrive. While the mechanic forcing by the orography is assessed in a number of modelling studies, it is still not clear how near-surface temperature over the two most prominent orographic barriers of the central Asian continent – the Tibetan and Mongolian plateaux – influences the winter climate. The problem is particularly relevant in view of a well-known cold bias in state-of-the-art climate models in proximity to the Tibetan Plateau, likely related to the modelling of land processes and land–atmosphere interaction over complex orography. Here we take advantage of the large spread in near-surface temperature over the central Asian plateaux within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to study how colder-than-average Asian plateau temperatures impact the atmospheric circulation. Based on composites of the CMIP6 models' climatologies showing the coldest Tibetan Plateau conditions, we find that such negative temperature anomalies appear to amplify the atmospheric response to orography, with an intensification of the eastern Asian winter monsoon and of the equatorward flank of the Pacific jet. The results of the CMIP6 composite analysis are supported by experiments run with an intermediate-complexity atmospheric model, forced by a similar pattern of cold surface temperatures over the central Asian plateaux. Within this setting, the relative influence of the Tibetan and the Mongolian Plateau surface conditions is analysed. Based on the results reported in this work we project that advances in the modelling of the land energy budget over the elevated regions of central Asia could improve the simulation of the climate in the Asian–Pacific sector climate, together with the reliability of climate projections and the performance of shorter-term forecasts.

The impact of a uniform ocean warming on the West African monsoon

Projections of West African Monsoon (WAM) precipitation are uncertain. To address this, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving WAM precipitation change is needed to shed light on inter-model differences and aid model development. The full forcing of increased CO2 can be decomposed into different components such as the impact of ocean warming, or the direct radiative effect of increased CO2. This paper investigates such a decomposition, analysing the effect of a uniform 4K ocean warming whilst keeping atmospheric CO2 concentrations constant. The analysis highlights several mechanisms acting to decrease WAM precipitation over a range of timescales, from days after the abrupt ocean warming, to the long-term equilibrium response. The initial decrease in WAM precipitation is caused by warming and enhanced convection over the ocean, stabilising the atmosphere inland and disrupting the monsoon inflow at low levels. Later in the response (after about 5 days), the WAM precipitation is reduced through a strengthening of the shallow circulation over West Africa, associated with changes in the large-scale temperature gradients and a local warming of the atmosphere related to a soil moisture feedback mechanism over the Sahel. Finally, from around 20 days after the SST increase, the WAM precipitation is also reduced through changes in specific humidity gradients that lead to increased potency of dry air advection into the monsoon rainband. The analysis concludes by demonstrating that the processes affecting precipitation in the early stages of the response are also relevant to the long-term equilibrium response.

Boundary layer moisture variability at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic observatory during marine conditions

Abstract. Boundary layer moisture variability at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site during marine conditions is examined at monthly and daily timescales using 5 years of ground-based observations and output from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis model. The annual cycle of the mixed-layer total water budgets is presented to estimate the relative contribution of large-scale advection, local moisture tendency, entrainment, and precipitation to balance the moistening due to surface latent heat flux on monthly timescales. When marine conditions prevail, advection of colder and dry air from the north acts as an important moisture sink (∼ 50 % of the overall budget) during fall and winter driving the seasonality of the budget. Entrainment and precipitation contribute to the drying of the boundary layer (∼ 25 % and ∼ 15 % respectively), and the local change in moisture contributes to a small residual part. On a daily temporal scale, moist and dry mesoscale columns of vapor (∼ 10 km) are analyzed during 10 selected days of precipitating stratocumulus clouds. Adjacent moist and dry columns present distinct mesoscale features that are strongly correlated with clouds and precipitation. Dry columns adjacent to moist columns have more frequent and stronger downdrafts immediately below the cloud base. Moist columns have more frequent updrafts, stronger cloud-top cooling, and higher liquid water path and precipitation compared to the dry columns. This study highlights the complex interaction between large-scale and local processes controlling the boundary layer moisture and the importance of spatial distribution of vapor to support convection and precipitation.

Formation Mechanism of the ENSO-Independent Summer Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone

Abstract The western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) is the key circulation modulating the East Asian summer climate. In this study, the formation mechanism of the summer WNPAC that is independent of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated. Although ENSO has a significant relationship with WNPAC, except for the super El Niño years, the WNPAC index remains almost unchanged after removing ENSO’s impact, suggesting the possibility of other origins of the WNPAC apart from ENSO. An Atlantic-to-Pacific two-step mechanism is proposed for the formation of ENSO-independent summer WNPAC. In boreal spring, diabatic heating induced by the positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Atlantic could stimulate a stationary equivalent barotropic Rossby wave train that travels across the Eurasian continent and ends in the tropical North Pacific. At the end of the Rossby wave train, the lower-level anomalous anticyclone advects negative moist enthalpy into the equator, which suppresses the local convection over the tropical North Pacific and equatorial central Pacific, and thus triggers the lower-level equatorial easterly anomaly to its west. During boreal summer, the lower-level easterly anomaly leads to the zonal dipole SSTA pattern with a negative center in the tropical central Pacific and a positive one in the Maritime Continent. Then, this dipole SSTA pattern over the Pacific exerts a relaying effect that further reinforces and westward shifts the dipole convection anomaly pattern, generating the WNPAC as a Gill-type response. This study underpins the independent role of Atlantic oceanic forcing through the extratropical route in the formation of ENSO-independent summer WNPAC. Significance Statement By linearly removing ENSO’s impact on summer monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), this study explores the sources of summer western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) apart from ENSO. It is found that the high correlation between WNPAC and ENSO largely depends on the super El Niño events, and the origin of the ENSO-independent WNPAC is rooted in the tropical Atlantic oceanic forcing. The positive tropical Atlantic SSTAs in spring can independently induce atmospheric teleconnection from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific through the extratropical route, which triggers anomalous easterlies over the equatorial Pacific via suppressed local convection caused by the dry air advection over the North Pacific. The equatorial easterlies enhance the dipole anomalous SST and convection pattern over the Maritime Continent and tropical western/central Pacific in summer, which finally stimulates the WNPAC. The result emphasizes the independent role of tropical Atlantic SSTAs in the formation of summer WNPAC, thus providing a new perspective for the seasonal prediction of East Asian summer climate.

Experimental evaluation of fire weather conditions during periods of wildfires in Ukraine in 2020

Introduction. Almost every year, the territory of Ukraine is affected by drought of different intensity and duration, what is a favorable condition for wildfires. In the forest areas of the country arose about 106.8 thousand fires with a total area of 139.2 thousand hectares during 1990-2017. An analysis of the long-term dynamics shows that wildfires in Ukraine are a sustainable phenomenon. In 2020, under the severe drought conditions, 209 forest fires occurred, the most significant of them were in the Chernobyl zone and in the Lugansk region. Formulation of the problem. There is still no universally accepted method to describe all drought related processes due to complexity of drought phenomena. Although drought indices and fire weather indices usually have different time scales, their combination can be a basis in the prediction scheme in which the drought index acts as a background indicator, which enhances or decreases the current fire weather index. The purpose of this study is evaluate informativeness of a new fire weather index HDW (Hot-Dry-Windy Index) for the territory of Ukraine, which takes into account the main meteorological parameters necessary to describe the degree of wildfire danger due to weather conditions, so this index may become a component of the drought and fire monitoring system. Data and methods. The HDW index has a physical justification as the atmosphere affects the fire, namely, the combination of three atmospheric parameters characterizes the current conditions for the ignition and distribution of fire: wind, temperature, humidity. For the calculation of the HDW index, the data of GFS global numerical model with grid step 0.25 degrees is used. The calculation of the daily fields of the HDW index was carried out for the territory of Ukraine and for local areas. To localize areas of wildfires, in the study were used daily hotspots data provided by the web-resource Firms (https://firms2.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/), which are determined using satellite instruments MODIS (AQUA and Terra Satellites) and VIIRS (S-NPP and NOAA-20 satellites). Research results. Comparison of the calculated HDW fields in Ukraine with the position of hotspots showed that the maximum values of the HDW index are generally concentrated in fire areas. Comparison with the synoptic situation showed that the maximum values of the HDW are located in the zones of advection of warm and dry air in the lower troposphere and zones of strong surface winds, which usually correspond to the periphery of anticyclone or the warm sector of cyclone. The analysis of the time courses of the HDW index showed the typical feature, which expressed in the fact that in all cases there was an increase in the index values in the period before the wildfire, maximum of the HDW is fixed at the time of ignition and after that the index values sharply decreases. Scientific novelty and practical significance. The fields of new HDW index reflects the weather conditions typical for wildfires periods in the territory of Ukraine. The presence of specific features and extreme values in the index time course can be used to track the process of increase of fire danger under changing weather conditions to make short- and medium-range fire danger forecasts with evaluation of fire danger classes.

Persistent warm and dry extremes over the eastern Mediterranean during winter: The role of North Atlantic blocking and central Mediterranean cyclones

AbstractPersistent dry winter events over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) disrupt the rainy (winter) season precipitation patterns and dramatically reduce water availability in the region. Here we objectively identify persistent dry, warm winter events over Israel, and apply a Lagrangian approach to three case‐studies, aiming to understand the relation between the synoptic setting, precursor Rossby waves, and how the dry, warm conditions emerge. Self‐organizing map classification of atmospheric profile data over Israel shows that the most persistent (at least 5 days) dry and warm winter events are induced by a stagnant upper tropospheric ridge over the EM, a pronounced trough or cut‐off low over the western/central Mediterranean and blocking over the North Atlantic. The leading mechanisms of the warm and dry conditions are: adiabatic heating during slantwise subsidence, heating by sensible heat fluxes from the surface, and advection of warm and dry continental air. The relative contributions of the mechanisms and geographical locations of the back trajectories vary greatly both within and among the events. In addition, the Atlantic blocking and EM ridge are supported by upstream diabatic heating in warm conveyor belts of North Atlantic cyclones and Mediterranean cyclones, respectively. A quantitative classification of the back trajectories above the Atlantic and the Mediterranean has shown transitions from adiabatic to diabatic contributions and vice versa along these paths. The sequential relation between Atlantic ridge (or block), trough over Europe and ridge over EM and/or west Russia places local persistent warm and dry extremes into a large‐scale context and thus provides new opportunities for understanding their predictability at weather and climate scales.

Hydrodynamics of regional and seasonal variations in Congo Basin precipitation

The processes that determine the seasonality of precipitation in the Congo Basin are examined using the atmospheric column moisture budget. Studying the fundamental determinants of Congo Basin precipitation seasonality supports process-based studies of variations on all time scales, including those associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming. Precipitation distributions produced by the ERA5 reanalysis provide sufficient accuracy for this analysis, which requires a consistent dataset to relate the atmospheric dynamics and moisture distribution to the precipitation field. The Northern and Southern Hemisphere regions of the Congo Basin are examined separately to avoid the misconception that Congo Basin rainfall is primarily bimodal. While evapotranspiration is indispensable for providing moisture to the atmospheric column to support precipitation in the Congo Basin, its seasonal variations are small and it does not drive precipitation seasonality. During the equinoctial seasons, precipitation is primarily supported by meridional wind convergence in the moist environment in the 800–500 hPa layer where moist air flows into the equatorial trough. Boreal fall rains are stronger than boreal spring rains in both hemispheres because low-level moisture divergence develops in boreal spring in association with the developing Saharan thermal low. The moisture convergence term also dominates the moisture budget during the summer season in both hemispheres, with meridional convergence in the 850–500 hPa layer as cross-equatorial flow interacts with the cyclonic flow about the Angola and Sahara thermal lows. Winter precipitation is low because of dry air advection from the winter hemisphere subtropical highs over the continent.

Role of moist and dry air advection in the development of Mediterranean tropical‐like cyclones (medicanes)

AbstractTwo tropical‐like cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea, aka medicanes, are analysed herein by means of numerical simulations. The cyclones, which were recently investigated in Miglietta and Rotunno, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2019, 145, are reconsidered in the present study, in which we focus on their respective preconditioning phases. In particular, here we analyse how local evaporation and/or long‐range transport of air masses may precondition the environment where the Mediterranean cyclones form. Numerical simulations indicate a rather different behaviour for the two cyclones. The first medicane (December 13–15, 2005) developed over the southern Mediterranean Sea, in a region of high low‐level humidity content, which existed before the cyclone formation; the air, originally dry over the eastern Balkans and the African mainland, gained humidity during its transit over the sea surface. In contrast, the second medicane (October 6–10, 1996) strongly intensified while benefitting from the intense sea‐surface fluxes due to the outbreak of Tramontane and Cierzo winds near the Balearic Islands, where the cyclone developed. Although limited to just two case studies, these results identify two different mechanisms conducive to an environment favourable for the intensification of medicanes in the western or southern Mediterranean. In addition, the role of dry air near the cyclone core, associated with upper‐tropospheric dry intrusions, is analysed. Sensitivity experiments were performed, constraining the relative humidity in the initial and boundary conditions to values above 50%. The advantage of this strategy is the ability to change the humidity content in the dry regions without modifying the associated strong potential vorticity anomalies. For both cases, we find that the humidity increase had the effect of inducing an earlier onset of cyclone development and of producing stronger, longer‐lasting vortices.

The Observed Water Vapor Budget in an Atmospheric River over the Northeast Pacific

AbstractCombined airborne, shipboard, and satellite measurements provide the first observational assessment of all major terms of the vertically integrated water vapor (IWV) budget for a 150 km × 160 km region within the core of a strong atmospheric river over the northeastern Pacific Ocean centered on 1930 UTC 5 February 2015. Column-integrated moisture flux convergence is estimated from eight dropsonde profiles, and surface rain rate is estimated from tail Doppler radar reflectivity measurements. Dynamical convergence of water vapor (2.20 ± 0.12 mm h−1) nearly balances estimated precipitation (2.47 ± 0.41 mm h−1), but surface evaporation (0.0 ± 0.05 mm h−1) is negligible. Advection of drier air into the budget region (−1.50 ± 0.21 mm h−1) causes IWV tendency from the sum of all terms to be negative (−1.66 ± 0.45 mm h−1). An independent estimate of IWV tendency obtained from the difference between IWV measured by dropsonde and retrieved by satellite 3 h earlier is less negative (−0.52 ± 0.24 mm h−1), suggesting the presence of substantial temporal variability that is smoothed out when averaging over several hours. The calculation of budget terms for various combinations of dropsonde subsets indicates the presence of substantial spatial variability at ~50-km scales for precipitation, moisture flux convergence, and IWV tendency that is smoothed out when averaging over the full budget region. Across subregions, surface rain rate is linearly proportional to dynamical convergence of water vapor. These observational results improve our understanding of the thermodynamic and kinematic processes that control IWV in atmospheric rivers and the scales at which they occur.

Warm-air entrainment and advection during alpine blowing snow events

Abstract. Blowing snow transport has considerable impact on the hydrological cycle in alpine regions both through the redistribution of the seasonal snowpack and through sublimation back into the atmosphere. Alpine energy and mass balances are typically modeled with time-averaged approximations of sensible and latent heat fluxes. This oversimplifies nonstationary turbulent mixing in complex terrain and may overlook important exchange processes for hydrometeorological prediction. To determine if specific turbulent motions are responsible for warm- and dry-air advection during blowing snow events, quadrant analysis and variable interval time averaging was used to investigate turbulent time series from the Fortress Mountain Snow Laboratory alpine study site in the Canadian Rockies, Alberta, Canada, during the winter of 2015–2016. By analyzing wind velocity and sonic temperature time series with concurrent blowing snow, such turbulent motions were found to supply substantial sensible heat to near-surface wind flows. These motions were responsible for temperature fluctuations of up to 1 ∘C, a considerable change for energy balance estimation. A simple scaling relationship was derived that related the frequency of dominant downdraft and updraft events to their duration and local variance. This allows for the first parameterization of entrained or advected energy for time-averaged representations of blowing snow sublimation and suggests that advection can strongly reduce thermodynamic feedbacks between blowing snow sublimation and the near-surface atmosphere. The downdraft and updraft scaling relationship described herein provides a significant step towards a more physically based blowing snow sublimation model with more realistic mixing of atmospheric heat. Additionally, calculations of return frequencies and event durations provide a field-measurement context for recent findings of nonstationarity impacts on sublimation rates.

E-DATA: A Comprehensive Field Campaign to Investigate Evaporation Enhanced by Advection in the Hyper-Arid Altiplano

In the endorheic basins of the Altiplano, water is crucial for sustaining unique ecological habitats. Here, the wetlands act as highly localized evaporative environments, and little is known about the processes that control evaporation. Understanding evaporation in the Altiplano is challenging because these environments are immersed in a complex topography surrounded by desert and are affected by atmospheric circulations at various spatial scales. Also, these environments may be subject to evaporation enhancement events as the result of dry air advection. To better characterize evaporation processes in the Altiplano, the novel Evaporation caused by Dry Air Transport over the Atacama Desert (E-DATA) field campaign was designed and tested at the Salar del Huasco, Chile. The E-DATA combines surface and airborne measurements to understand the evaporation dynamics over heterogeneous surfaces, with the main emphasis on the open water evaporation. The weather and research forecasting model was used for planning the instruments installation strategy to understand how large-scale air flow affects evaporation. Instrumentation deployed included: meteorological stations, eddy covariance systems, scintillometers, radiosondes and an unmanned aerial vehicle, and fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing. Additional water quality and CO2 fluxes measurements were carried out to identify the link between meteorological conditions and the biochemical dynamics of Salar del Huasco. Our first results show that, in the study site, evaporation is driven by processes occurring at multiple spatial and temporal scales and that, even in the case of available water and energy, evaporation is triggered by mechanical turbulence induced by wind.

Two Contrasting African Easterly Wave Behaviors

AbstractThe dominant structural variability of African easterly waves (AEWs) is explored using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) approach. The structure of AEWs is obtained by projecting the wind fields from reanalysis data and satellite-derived brightness temperature Tb onto the principal components associated with EOF patterns of filtered Tb (Tb EOF) and 700-hPa meridional wind (v700 EOF). The wave structure depicted by the Tb EOF has confined convection and circulation mostly south of the African easterly jet. It shares many characteristics with AEWs analyzed and discussed in the literature. In contrast, the v700 EOF exhibits less familiar characteristics and includes interactions with the equatorial and subtropical regions. The convective patterns are characterized by a “checkerboard” pattern of convection that has not been emphasized before. The most striking feature is the broad meridional extent, which depicts interactions with a mixed Rossby–gravity wave (MRG) in the equatorial region and interactions with the basic-state potential vorticity in the subtropics. The southern portion of the wave has a modified MRG structure, and this AEW–MRG hybrid cannot be separated using the EOF technique, indicating the prevalence of such structures. The subtropical interaction at mid- to lower levels establishes a vortex off the coast of Morocco that results in dry-air advection into the tropics in tandem with the northern vortex. At upper levels, a subtropical wave train is induced by the AEW-associated convective inflow and outflow. The contrasting AEW circulations are associated with differences in the precipitation rates and patterns over Africa. These results highlight the variability of AEW structures and their interactions with equatorial and subtropical waves.

Observed relationship between the Turkana low-level jet and boreal summer convection

The Turkana low-level jet is a circulation feature over northern Kenya that is not spatially well-resolved in many observational datasets. Here, high-resolution TRMM, IMERG, and CMORPH precipitation estimates, along with the ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalyses are analyzed to better understand the controls on jet strength and the relationship between the jet and boreal summer rainfall variability in the jet exit region over South Sudan. The height of the South Sudan wet season, August, is analyzed for 2000–2017. Climatologically, rainfall peaks over the jet exit region during the early morning hours, coinciding with the jet maximum. The strong jet enhances low-level wind convergence and briefly shifts the low-level zonal moisture gradient westward. Over the western South Sudan, rainfall peaks in the late afternoon/evening in association with daytime heating. The correlation between the daily Turkana Jet strength and precipitation indicates a significant negative relationship over eastern South Sudan, and over the Ethiopian and East African Highlands. Composite analysis of strong and weak jet periods reveal that the atmospheric conditions associated with a strong jet include enhanced low-level ridging along the East African coast south of the equator resulting in a stronger height gradient in the Turkana Channel, as well drier conditions over the channel and adjacent highlands. These conditions support a stronger jet that is further enhanced by katabatic flow due to the stronger nighttime cooling over the highlands, as well as enhanced dry air advection over the jet exit region. Thus, while low-level convergence may increase, convection weakens over eastern South Sudan due to the reduced atmospheric moisture content and weaker instability. The opposite occurs for the weak jet case.

Heat Waves in Florida: Climatology, Trends, and Related Precipitation Events

AbstractHeat waves are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity and are strongly linked to anthropogenic climate change. However, few studies have examined heat waves in Florida, despite an older population and increasingly urbanized land areas that make it particularly susceptible to heat impacts. Heavy precipitation events are also becoming more frequent and intense; recent climate model simulations showed that heavy precipitation in the three days after a Florida heat wave follow these trends, yet the underlying dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms have not been investigated. In this study, a heat wave climatology and trend analysis are developed from 1950 to 2016 for seven major airports in Florida. Heat waves are defined based on the 95th percentile of daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures. Results show that heat waves exhibit statistically significant increases in frequency and duration at most stations, especially for mean and minimum temperature events. Frequency and duration increases are most prominent at Tallahassee, Tampa, Miami, and Key West. Heat waves in northern Florida are characterized by large-scale continental ridging, while heat waves in central and southern Florida are associated with a combination of a continental ridge and a westward extension of the Bermuda–Azores high. Heavy precipitation events that follow a heat wave are characterized by anomalously large ascent and moisture, as well as strong instability. Light precipitation events in northern Florida are characterized by advection of drier air from the continent, while over central and southern Florida, prolonged subsidence is the most important difference between heavy and light events.

A simple model for local-scale sensible and latent heat advection contributions to snowmelt

Abstract. Local-scale advection of energy from warm snow-free surfaces to cold snow-covered surfaces is an important component of the energy balance during snow-cover depletion. Unfortunately, this process is difficult to quantify in one-dimensional snowmelt models. This paper proposes a simple sensible and latent heat advection model for snowmelt situations that can be readily coupled to one-dimensional energy balance snowmelt models. An existing advection parameterization was coupled to a conceptual frozen soil infiltration surface water retention model to estimate the areal average sensible and latent heat advection contributions to snowmelt. The proposed model compared well with observations of latent and sensible heat advection, providing confidence in the process parameterizations and the assumptions applied. Snow-covered area observations from unmanned aerial vehicle imagery were used to update and evaluate the scaling properties of snow patch area distribution and lengths. Model dynamics and snowmelt implications were explored within an idealized modelling experiment, by coupling to a one-dimensional energy balance snowmelt model. Dry, snow-free surfaces were associated with advection of dry air that compensated for positive sensible heat advection fluxes and so limited the net influence of advection on snowmelt. Latent and sensible heat advection fluxes both contributed positive fluxes to snow when snow-free surfaces were wet and enhanced net advection contributions to snowmelt. The increased net advection fluxes from wet surfaces typically develop towards the end of snowmelt and offset decreases in the one-dimensional areal average melt energy that declines with snow-covered area. The new model can be readily incorporated into existing one-dimensional snowmelt hydrology and land surface scheme models and will foster improvements in snowmelt understanding and predictions.

Robust Responses of the Sahelian Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming

How the globally uniform component of sea surface temperature (SST) warming influences rainfall in the African Sahel remains insufficiently studied, despite mean SST warming being among the most robustly simulated and theoretically grounded features of anthropogenic climate change. A prior study using the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM2.1 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) demonstrated that uniform SST warming strengthens the prevailing northerly advection of dry Saharan air into the Sahel. The present study uses uniform SST warming simulations performed with 7 GFDL and 10 CMIP5 AGCMs to assess the robustness of this drying mechanism across models and uses observations to assess the physical credibility of the severe drying response in AM2.1. In all 17 AGCMs, mean SST warming enhances the free-tropospheric meridional moisture gradient spanning the Sahel and with it the Saharan dry-air advection. Energetically, this is partially balanced by anomalous subsidence, yielding decreased precipitation in 14 of the 17 models. Anomalous subsidence and precipitation are tightly linked across the GFDL models but not the CMIP5 models, precluding the use of this relationship as the start of a causal chain ending in an emergent observational constraint. For AM2.1, cloud–rainfall covariances generate radiative feedbacks on drying through the subsidence mechanism and through surface hydrology that are excessive compared to observations at the interannual time scale. These feedbacks also act in the equilibrium response to uniform warming, calling into question the Sahel’s severe drying response to warming in all coupled models using AM2.1.