Patterns Of Adult Mortality Research Articles

Trends in adult mortality rates in India, 1970 to 2018: age-period-cohort analysis.

High premature adult deaths in developing countries are gaining attention, as recent studies show their increasing impact on overall mortality rates. This paper has twofold objectives: firstly, it investigates the long-term trends and patterns of adult mortality between 1970 and 2018 in India. Secondly, it attempts to detect age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on adult mortality decline over time. Data on age-specific mortality rates and disease-adjusted life years for adult age groups (15-59 years) were collected from the Sample Registration System and the Global Burden of Disease study, respectively. The trends in age-standardized mortality rates were presented graphically, and critical change points were highlighted using a change-point analysis. The intrinsic estimator model was applied to estimate the independent effects of APC on adult mortality. The findings revealed that adult mortality declined between 1970 and 2018 with multiple critical change points. The APC effects showed a notable decline in adult mortality during 2005-2018 and for the recent birth cohorts, 1980-2004. However, the rate of mortality declined slowly over time. Results also indicated that mortality started increasing from mid-adult ages and peaked in older adult ages due to the age effects and provided evidence of a rise in adult life loss due to non-communicable diseases in recent years. Overall, the study underscores the importance of implementing health policies aimed at reducing life loss in the most economically active ages that can have long-term negative implications for the country's economic growth.

A comprehensive analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of anthropogenic adult mortality of Bonelli's eagles in eastern Spain

AbstractIn eastern Spain, Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata) abundance has declined almost 50% in the last 25 years and, consequently, the species is listed as regionally endangered. Therefore, the aim of this study is to report the mortality causes of territorial breeding Bonelli's eagles, including the spatial and temporal patterns, and to assess the effects on population dynamics. From 2015–2023, we tracked 60 Bonelli's eagles via global positioning system‐global system for mobile communications (GPS‐GSM) telemetry; 33 of the eagles died (median survival time = 1,519 days). Survival did not differ in relation to sex, age at capture (subadult vs. adult birds), breeding site (coastland vs. inland territories), or transmitter's model. One‐year probability of survival (95% CI) was 0.716 (0.607–0.845); 2‐year survival was 0.640 (0.524–0.781); and 3‐year survival was 0.581 (0.464–0.729). Anthropogenic mortality (66.7% of cases) prevailed over natural (27.3%) and unknown causes (6.0%). Causes of mortality were intra‐ and interspecific predation (24.2% of cases), electrocution (18.2%), poisoning (15.1%), collision with power lines (9.1%), shooting (9.1%), drowning (9.1%), collision with other man‐made infrastructure (6.1%), and disease (3.0%). Deaths were most frequent during the early breeding season. Only 2 (6.1%) of 33 deaths recorded occurred within a protected area. Natural causes of mortality were more frequent away from the Mediterranean coast. In contrast, anthropogenic deaths were more frequent near the Mediterranean coast, where human population density is high. We estimated that probability of extirpation of the species in our study area is 17.8% in the next 50 years and 99.2% in 100 years. Nonetheless, a small reduction in adult mortality by ≥15% could prevent extirpation in the next 50 years. Therefore, actions to reduce adult mortality are urgently needed to preserve the Bonelli's eagle in eastern Spain.

Adult mortality patterns in Yemen before and during armed conflict: evidence from a web survey of the global diaspora

BackgroundThe ongoing war in Yemen has created a severe and protracted crisis that has left nearly three-quarters of the population in need of urgent humanitarian assistance. Despite eight years of conflict there exist few robust estimates of how the conflict (and the conflict combined with the COVID-19 pandemic) have affected mortality in Yemen. As the security situation has limited access to affected populations we have designed a novel alternative to local mortality surveys.MethodsWe used a web-based, respondent-driven sampling method to disseminate a mortality survey amongst the global Yemeni diaspora. We used Cox proportional hazards survival models to estimate the association between the exposure (i.e. between the pre-conflict, conflict, and conflict/pandemic periods) and mortality risk, adjusted for gender and birth cohort.ResultsEighty-nine eligible respondents completed the survey. Respondents provided data on the status of 1704 individuals of whom 85 (5%) had died; of these 65 (3.8%) were reported to have died in Yemen. An analysis of survivorship of respondents’ parents after their 50th birthday (adjusted for gender and birth cohort) provided weak evidence that the war and pandemic periods were associated with higher mortality when compared to the pre-war period. Analysis of the subset of individuals who died in Yemen also suggested an increased, but non-significant hazard of dying during the war/pandemic period: this association tended towards significance when allowing for varying degrees of out-migration from Yemen across the cohort. The number of deaths amongst respondents’ siblings and children under five in Yemen were too low to allow meaningful analysis.ConclusionsOur data suggest increased mortality during the war/pandemic period, compared to the pre-war period, among older Yemeni adults. However, our findings require careful interpretation as our study design cannot establish causation, and as our small and non-representative sample appeared skewed towards higher-income, urban communities. Surveys of diaspora populations offer a promising means of describing mortality patterns in crisis-affected populations; though, large numbers of respondents are likely required to achieve accurate mortality estimates and to adjust for selection bias.

A COVID–19-halandóság életkor-specifikus regionális jellemzői 2021-ben

In most countries, COVID-19 mortality increases exponentially with age, but the growth rate varies considerably between countries. The different progression of mortality may reflect differences in population health, the quality of health care or coding practices. In this study, we investigated differences in age-specific county characteristics of COVID-19 mortality in the second year of the pandemic. Age-specific patterns of COVID-19 adult mortality were estimated according to county level and sex using a Gompertz function with multilevel models. The Gompertz function is suitable for describing age patterns of COVID-19 adult mortality at county level. We did not find significant differences in the age progression of mortality between counties, but there were significant spatial differences in the level of mortality. The mortality level showed a relationship with socioeconomic and health care indicators with the expected sign, but with different strengths. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 resulted in a decline in life expectancy in Hungary not seen since World War II. The study highlights the importance of healthcare in addition to social vulnerability. It also points out that understanding age patterns will help to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic. Orv Hetil. 2023; 164(17): 643-650.

The trend and pattern of adult mortality in South-Central Ethiopia: analysis using the 2008-2019 data from Butajira Health and Demographic Surveillance System

ABSTRACT Background Understanding context-specific temporal trends in mortality is essential for setting health policy priorities. Objective To investigate the trends and distribution of deaths due to communicable and non-communicable diseases and external causes in South-Central Ethiopia. Method All adult deaths captured by the Butajira Health and Demographic Surveillance System between January 2008 and December 2019 were included. A verbal autopsy method of collecting cause of death data was used. Physician review and a computerised algorithm, InterVA, were used to determine the cause of death. Coding was undertaken using the World Health Organization's International Classification of Diseases. Trends in adult mortality rate and proportional mortality were estimated by major cause of death categories. Significant trends were analysed using the Mann–Kendall statistical test with a significance set at P < 0.05. Deaths were also disaggregated by age, sex, and residence. Results There were 1,612 deaths in 279,681 person-years; 811 (50.3%) were females. The median age at death was 65 years. The proportional adult mortality and adult mortality rates (per 1000 person-years) attributed to communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, and external causes were 31.1%, 58.9%, and 6.0%, and 1.9, 3.4, and 0.4, respectively. Adult mortality due to communicable diseases showed a declining trend (tau, the measure of the strength and direction of association, = −0.52; P < 0.05), whereas the trend increased for non-communicable diseases (tau = 0.67, P < 0.05) and external causes (tau = 0.29, P > 0.05). Moreover, death rates were pronounced in the 65+ age group and rural areas but comparable among males and females. Conclusion The trend in deaths due to communicable diseases declined but increased for non-communicable diseases and external causes with significant public health burdens. These findings will provide essential input in formulating health policy reforms to reduce premature mortality.

Exploring the inclusion of developmental stress trajectories on past adult mortality patterns: Quantifying skeletal plasticity and adult mortality risk in post‐medieval London using a probability tree model

AbstractSufficient evidence supports arguments that early life conditions can influence adult morbidity and mortality in the past and present. Critical periods in which individuals are more susceptible to stressors leading to long‐term effects vary, but how often and to what degree these long‐term effects occur is less certain. To evaluate skeletal stress markers that fully develop during different life history stages (i.e., childhood and adolescence) and explore their influence on adult morbidity and mortality, we constructed four growth trajectory categories to estimate the effect of developmental timing of stress indicators on adult mortality risk in skeletal samples from post‐medieval London (n = 118 individuals). To construct these growth trajectory categories, linear enamel hypoplasia and tibial length were used as evidence of early life stress during childhood and extended into adolescence. Pairwise relationships between growth trajectory scores and variables such as age, sex, and cemetery were explored using Chi‐square and Fisher's exact tests. Long‐term effects were also evaluated using Factorial ANOVA as a multifactorial method to test correlations between categorical variables of early life stress and adult mortality risk. Results suggest there was no relationship between age‐at‐death and growth trajectory score, with the only significance in growth disruption score being between tibial stunting and age‐at‐death in males. Socioeconomic status did not impact results of this study, with only two statistically significant relationships noted for one cemetery. Results comparing males and females also yielded no significant differences, indicating sex was not a significant covariate. Overall, this paper presents a model that can help investigate differences between various developmental origins frameworks and be built upon by future researchers using different stress indicators, datasets, and skeletal samples to investigate potential change through time in lived experiences and how that change through time impacts patterns of mortality risk.

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and the age pattern of adult mortality

ABSTRACT We draw upon the life-course perspective and examine whether Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) moderates the age pattern of adult mortality using data from the 2007 and 2012 National Health Interview Survey Sample Adult File linked to National Death Index data through 2015. Overall, 7.0% of respondents died by 2015. Discrete-time hazard analysis indicates that the log odds of mortality were significantly lower among 18 and 19 year old adults ever diagnosed with ADHD and significantly higher among 46 to 64 year old adults ever diagnosed with ADHD, with a crossover occurring at age 33. Results were similar among men and women. It is not known specifically which risks drive changes in the risk of mortality documented among persons with ADHD during the transition to adulthood, the increased risk of mortality in midlife, or whether some risks operate more or less at particular ages. Additional research can lead to targeted, age- and life-course stage-focused interventions for specific risks and contribute to the reduction of ADHD-related mortality.

Population-level impact of adverse early life conditions on adult healthy life expectancy in low- and middle-income countries

Evidence from theories of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) suggests that experiencing adverse early life conditions subsequently leads to detrimental adult health outcomes. The bulk of empirical DOHaD literature does not consider the nature and magnitude of the impact of adverse early life conditions at the population level. In particular, it ignores the distortion of age and cohort patterns of adult health and mortality and the increased load of chronic illness and disability that ensues. In this paper, we use a microsimulation model combined with empirical estimates of incidence and prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and associated disability in low- and middle-income countries to assess the magnitude of delayed effects on adult healthy life expectancy and on compression (or expansion) of morbidity at older ages. The main goal is to determine if, in what ways, and to what extent delayed effects due to early conditions can influence cohorts’ chronic illness and disability profiles.

Temporal and spatial trends of adult mortality in small areas of Brazil, 1980\u20132010

To determine the variations and spatial patterns of adult mortality across regions, over time, and by sex for 137 small areas in Brazil, we first apply TOPALS to estimate and smooth mortality rates and then use death distribution methods to evaluate the quality of the mortality data. Lastly, we employ spatial autocorrelation statistics and cluster analysis to identify the adult mortality trends and variations in these areas between 1980 and 2010. We find not only that regions in Brazil’s South and Southeast already had complete death registration systems prior to the study period, but that the completeness of death count coverage improved over time across the entire nation—most especially in lesser developed regions—probably because of public investment in health data collection. By also comparing adult mortality by sex and by region, we document a mortality sex differential in favor of women that remains high over the entire study period, most probably as a result of increased morbidity from external causes, especially among males. This increase also explains the concentration of high male mortality levels in some areas.

Impact of delayed effects on human old-age mortality1.

There is growing empirical evidence supporting theories of developmental origins of health and disease (DOHaD). However, the implications of DOHaD conjectures for aggregate population patterns of human disease, disability, mortality and aging are poorly understood. We empirically test two predictions derived from a formal model of aggregate population-level impacts of DOHaD. This model predicts that populations potentially influenced by delayed effects should experience singularities in their adult mortality patterns that can be empirically detected from aggregate data. We test predictions using a large mortality database for populations in the Latin American and Caribbean region (LAC) spanning nearly one hundred years of mortality history. Results are consistent. within explicit bounds of uncertainty, with expected patterns. We find that younger cohorts in countries whose mortality decline starts more recently experience deceleration in survival gains at older ages, attenuation of the rate of aging at older ages and a decline in the association between early childhood and adult mortality. Results point to the importance of adverse early conditions for human longevity. Future research should shed light on the impact on morbidity, disability and healthy life expectancy. To our knowledge this is the first time that implications of DOHaD conjectures for populations' mortality patterns are formulated precisely and empirically tested with aggregate population data.

Modelling regional differentials in childhood and adult mortality in Nigeria

Context: Nigeria is one of the countries yet to undergo demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa. This study provided estimates of childhood and Adult mortality across geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Data Source and Method: The parameters used in this study were estimated from 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Child and adult mortality were estimated using Brass logit system and siblings survival method respectively and then linked using the logit life tables. Heligman pollard model was used to generate estimates of probability of death. Findings: There were regional variations in the levels of infant and under-five mortality in Nigeria, mortality was highest in the North West and least in South West. Survivorship probabilities decreased as age increased. The age patterns of childhood and adult mortality were similar across all regions. Life expectancy from birth in Nigeria was 58 years. Conclusion: The estimated mortality rates were high and varied across the regions in Nigeria. While government should not relent its efforts in childhood mortality reduction in Nigeria, more attention should be focused on children who live in the Northern part of Nigeria

Socially disparate trends in lifespan variation: a trend study on income and mortality based on nationwide Danish register data

BackgroundSocial inequality trends in life expectancy are not informative as to changes in social disparity in the age-at-death distribution. The purpose of the study was to investigate social differentials in...

Age patterns and sex ratios of adult mortality in countries with high HIV prevalence.

To compare the 2016 United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) modelled estimates of adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa to empirical estimates. Age-specific mortality rates were obtained from nationally representative sibling survival data, recent household deaths and vital registration, and directly compared with UNAIDS estimates. Orphanhood prevalence derived from UNAIDS mortality estimates was compared with survey and census reports on the survival of children's parents. Age-specific mortality rates for adults aged 15-59 years were calculated from Demographic and Health Surveys and deaths reported in censuses or vital registration, adjusted for underreporting, whenever possible. Proportions of orphans were extracted from censuses and surveys for children aged 5-9 years. UNAIDS estimates were significantly higher than sibling mortality estimates, except among men in countries with very high HIV prevalence. There was a better agreement between rates based on household deaths or vital registration and model outputs. Sex ratios (M/F) of adult mortality were lower in UNAIDS estimates. The modelled orphan prevalence was significantly higher than in surveys and censuses, again with the exception of paternal orphans in countries with very high HIV prevalence. Ratios of paternal-to-maternal orphans were lower in the UNAIDS model than surveys and censuses. Among women, increases in mortality due to AIDS were more concentrated in the age range 25-50 years in model outputs, as compared with empirical estimates. Discrepancies in levels, sex ratios and age patterns of adult mortality between empirical and UNAIDS estimates call for additional data quality assessments and improvements in estimation methods.

Discrete Barker Frailty and Warped Mortality Dynamics at Older Ages.

We develop a discrete variant of a general model for adult mortality influenced by the delayed impact of early conditions on adult health and mortality. The discrete variant of the model builds on an intuitively appealing interpretation of conditions that induce delayed effects and is an extension of the discrete form of the standard frailty model with distinct implications. We show that introducing delayed effects is equivalent to perturbing adult mortality patterns with a particular class of time-/age-varying frailty. We emphasize two main results. First, populations with delayed effects could experience unchanging or increasing adult mortality even when background mortality has been declining for long periods of time. Although this phenomenon also occurs in a regime with standard frailty, the distortions can be more severe under a regime with Barker frailty. As a consequence, conventional interpretations of the observed rates of adult mortality decline in societies that experience Barker frailty may be inappropriate. Second, the observed rate of senescence (slope of adult mortality rates) in populations with delayed effects could increase, decrease, or remain steady over time and across adult ages even though the rate of senescence of the background age pattern of mortality is time- and age-invariant. This second result implies that standard interpretations of empirical estimates of the slope of adult mortality rates in populations with delayed effects may be misleading because they can reflect mechanisms other than those inducing senescence as conventionally understood in the literature.

Adult mortality patterns in the former Soviet Union's southern tier: Armenia and Georgia in comparative perspective.

BACKGROUNDWhile the health crisis in the former USSR has been well-documented in the case of Russia and other northern former Soviet republics, little is known about countries located in the southern tier of the region, i.e., the Caucasus and Central Asia.OBJECTIVEThis paper presents new mortality information from two Caucasian countries, Georgia and Armenia. Results are compared with information from two relevant countries previously examined in the literature, Kyrgyzstan and Russia.METHODSUsing official statistics (with adjustments when necessary), we compare adult mortality patterns in the four countries since 1979, for all causes and by cause for the recent period. For Kyrgyzstan results are presented by ethnicity, as its mortality levels have been impacted by its large Slavic population.RESULTSAdult mortality patterns in Armenia and Georgia have been more favorable than in Russia. This appears to be due to a large extent to lower mortality from alcohol-related causes. Mortality patterns in these Caucasian republics resemble those observed in Kyrgyzstan, especially when considering the native portion of the population.CONCLUSIONSAs far as mortality is concerned, Armenia and Georgia have weathered the collapse of the Soviet Union better than Russia. These results document a distinct southern tier pattern of adult mortality in the former Soviet Union.CONTRIBUTIONThis article enriches our understanding of the health crisis in the former Soviet Union by bringing new information from two lesser-known countries and further documenting the scale of heterogeneity in mortality experiences across this vast region.

Comparative life history of the south temperate Cape Penduline Tit (Anthoscopus minutus) and north temperate Remizidae species

We studied the breeding biology of the south temperate Cape Penduline Tit (Anthoscopus minutus) in order to compare its life history traits with those of related north temperate members of the family Remizidae, namely the Eurasian Penduline Tit (Remiz pendulinus) and the Verdin (Auriparus flaviceps). We used this comparison to test key predictions of three hypotheses thought to explain latitudinal variation in life histories among bird species—the seasonality and food limitation hypothesis, nest predation hypothesis and adult mortality hypothesis. Contrary to the general pattern of smaller clutch size and lower adult mortality among south-temperate birds living in less seasonal environments, the Cape Penduline Tit has a clutch size larger than that of the Verdin and similar to that of the Eurasian Penduline Tit, and higher adult mortality than both of the other two species. The most notable difference between the Cape Penduline Tit and the two other species is in parental behavioural strategy, with the former exhibiting bi-parental care at all stages of nesting together with facultative cooperative breeding, whereas the Eurasian Penduline Tit has uni-parental care and the Verdin has a combination of female-only incubation but bi-parental nestling care. Consequently, in comparison to the other two species, the Cape Penduline Tit exhibits greater nest attentiveness during incubation, a similar per-nestling feeding rate and greater post-fledging survival. Its relatively large clutch size, high parental investment and associated high adult mortality in a less seasonal environment are consistent with key predictions of the adult mortality hypothesis but not with key predictions of the seasonality and food limitation hypothesis in explaining life history variation among Remizidae species. These results add to a growing body of evidence of the importance of age-specific mortality in shaping life history evolution.

Spatial variation of male alcohol-related mortality in Belarus and Lithuania.

Numerous studies have addressed the problem of hazardous alcohol consumption, alcohol-related causes of death and their relationship to persisting excess male mortality in the countries of the former USSR. Yet relatively little is known about the geographical patterns of alcohol-related mortality within these countries and the cross-border continuities of such patterns. This study aims at identifying the spatial distribution and the cross-border patterns of adult male mortality from alcohol poisonings and liver cirrhosis in Belarus and Lithuania. We use cause-specific mortality data for 2003-2007. We employ spatial econometric techniques to detect 'hot spots' of alcohol-related mortality across the combined territory of the two countries. Specific patterns associated with extremely high rates of mortality from alcohol poisoning can be observed in Belarus, particularly in the areas bordering Russia and Lithuania. Meanwhile, patterns of alcohol-induced liver disease dominate in Lithuania, and continue across the border from eastern Lithuania into north-western Belarus. The districts located along the Belarusian-Lithuanian border appear to be especially problematic, as they suffer from an enormous burden of alcohol consumption. The situation is particularly severe on the Belarusian side, where there are extremely high levels of mortality from both alcohol poisoning and liver cirrhosis. These areas should be considered primary targets for antialcohol policies.

Adult non-communicable disease mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites

Background Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organization's Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15–64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. Design All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15–64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Conclusions These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work.

Adult Male Mortality in India

This paper presents levels and trends of adult male mortality in India and its major states during the post-independence period applying the widowhood method on census data. It also estimates adult male mortality for all the districts from major states of India. We adjusted widowhood estimates for possible bias due to remarriages and examined the sensitivity of adjusted estimates to different scenarios of remarriage rates. Comparison of widowhood estimates with direct estimates from official sources supports the credibility of widowhood estimates. Information obtained from widows aged 40–44 and 45–49 provided the most convincing patterns of adult mortality. Trends in adult mortality suggest that maximum gain in 45q15 for India and its states occurred during 1949–1960. Adult male mortality varied substantially across the states of India. Although adult life expectancy has been rising in India, the rate of mortality reduction has been decreasing over the last few decades.

Modelling Adult Mortality in Nigeria: Ananalysis Based on the Lee-Carter Model

For several decades, global public-health efforts have focused on the development and application of various programs to improve child survival in developing countries. By contrast, little emphasis has been placed on adult mortality especially in a developing country like Nigeria. In order to plan and monitor the effectiveness of public-health programs, the Government and international agencies need accurate information on the past and current level and patterns of adult mortality in the country and how they are changing with time. This study used the Lee-Carter method to model adult mortality in Nigeria (a limited data situation). The model was applied to the age-specific mortality rates for Nigeria (for both sexes) aged 15-84 years for the time periods 1990, 2000 and 2009. An evaluation of past time trends in the general pattern of adult mortality, the relative pace of change in mortality by age, the general pattern of mortality by age and forecast of future mortality index and rates from 2010-2019 was made. The model’s parameters are estimated using the approach proposed by Lee and Carter (1992) based on the singular value decomposition technique, while the mortality index is predicted using the approach developed by Nan Li et al . (2002). Our findings reflect that the model follows the mortality pattern very well for most of the ages except that the fit of the model was better for the male data than the females’. Furthermore, it is observed that presently, females have a higher mortality rate than males in Nigeria while forecast values of the mortality index show that the male folk will experience a gradual decline in mortality from 2010-2019 all things being equal. Conclusively, the Lee-Carter model can be used in the Nigerian situation provided that the earliest and latest points of the data are sufficiently far apart in time.