To inform clinical monitoring of children and young adults with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) by characterizing the real-world natural history of MASLD and identifying baseline predictors of liver disease progression. This retrospective study included consecutive patients ages < 23 years with MASLD who underwent serial MR elastography (MRE) and/or MR fat fraction (FF) examinations between 09/2009 and 11/2022. Outcomes of MASLD were defined based on maximum ratio values. A relative change ≥ 19% in liver stiffness measures (LSM) and an absolute change ≥ 5% for liver FF were considered clinically meaningful. Random intercept models characterized the yearly rate of change in LSM (kilopascals per year) and FF (percentage per year). One hundred twenty-one patients (87 males, mean age at baseline: 12 ± 3 [SD] years) underwent 297 MRE examinations. The mean interval between the first and last MRE was 34 (± 24) months (range: 1-120 months). Among the 114 patients with serial LSM, 33% (38/114) showed progression, 46% (53/114) remained stable, and 21% (23/114) showed regression. Among the 88 patients with serial FF measures, 57% (50/88) showed progression, 2% (2/88) remained stable, and 41% (36/88) showed regression. LSM progression was associated with Hispanic ethnicity, baseline BMI-for-age percentile, baseline mean liver FF, and GGT changes over time. Predictors for liver FF progression included ALT, AST, GGT, and LDL. In a real-world sample of children and young adults with MASLD who underwent serial liver MRI, a minority of patients demonstrated improvements in liver stiffness or FF over time. Question In children, there is scarce data regarding the natural history of MASLD. Findings In this retrospective study, most children and young adults with MASLD had either unchanged or worsening liver stiffness (n = 91/114, 79%) and liver fat (n = 52/88, 59%). Clinical relevance Our findings emphasize the need for optimized care in pediatric MASLD. The identified risk factors for the progression of liver fat and stiffness may help to identify children who require interventions beyond changes in lifestyle.
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