Adult Medical Admissions Research Articles

External validation of the computer aided risk scoring system in predicting in-hospital mortality following emergency medical admissions

BackgroundClinical prediction models have the potential to improve the quality of care and enhance patient safety outcomes. A Computer-aided Risk Scoring system (CARSS) was previously developed to predict in-hospital mortality following emergency admissions based on routinely collected blood tests and vitals. We aimed to externally validate the CARSS model. MethodsIn this retrospective external validation study, we considered all adult (≥18 years) emergency medical admissions discharged between 11/11/2020 and 11/11/2022 from The Rotherham Foundation Trust (TRFT), UK. We assessed the predictive performance of the CARSS model based on its discriminative (c-statistic) and calibration characteristics (calibration slope and calibration plots). ResultsOut of 32,774 admissions, 20,422 (62.3 %) admissions were included. The TRFT sample had similar demographic characteristics to the development sample but had higher mortality (6.1 % versus 5.7 %). The CARSS model demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic 0.87 [95 % CI 0.86–0.88]) and good calibration to the TRFT dataset (slope = 1.03 [95 % CI 0.98–1.08] intercept = 0 [95 % CI −0.06–0.07]) after re-calibrating for differences in baseline mortality (intercept = 0.96 [95 % CI 0.90–1.03] before re-calibration). ConclusionIn summary, the CARSS model is externally validated after correcting the baseline risk of death between development and validation datasets. External validation of the CARSS model showed that it under-predicted in-hospital mortality. Re-calibration of this model showed adequate performance in the TRFT dataset.

Multimorbidity-associated emergency hospital admissions: a “screen and link” strategy to improve outcomes for high-risk patients in sub-Saharan Africa: a prospective multicentre cohort study protocol

Background The prevalence of multimorbidity (the presence of two or more chronic health conditions) is rapidly increasing in sub–Saharan Africa. Hospital care pathways that focus on single presenting complaints do not address this pressing problem. This has the potential to precipitate frequent hospital readmissions, increase health system and out-of-pocket expenses, and may lead to premature disability and death. We aim to present a description of inpatient multimorbidity in a multicentre prospective cohort study in Malawi and Tanzania. Primary objectives Determine prevalence of multimorbid disease among adult medical admissions and measure patient outcomes. Health Economic: Measure economic costs incurred and changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at 90 days post-admission. Situation analysis: Qualitatively describe pathways of patients with multimorbidity through the health system. Secondary objectives Determine hospital readmission free survival and markers of disease control 90 days after admission. Health Economic: Present economic costs from patient and health system perspective, sub-analyse costs and HRQoL according to presence of different diseases. Situation analysis: Understand health literacy related to their own diseases and experience of care for patients with multimorbidity and their caregivers. Methods This is a prospective longitudinal cohort study of adult (≥18 years) acute medical hospital admissions with nested health economic and situation analysis in four hospitals: 1) Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi; 2) Chiradzulu District Hospital, Malawi; 3) Hai District Hospital, Boma Ng’ombe, Tanzania; 4) Muhimbili National Hospital, Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. Follow-up duration will be 90 days from hospital admission. We will use consecutive recruitment within 24 hours of emergency presentation and stratified recruitment across four sites. We will use point-of-care tests to refine estimates of disease pathology. We will conduct qualitative interviews with patients, caregivers, healthcare providers and policymakers; focus group discussions with patients and caregivers, and observations of hospital care pathways.

Hospital-associated venous thromboembolism prophylaxis use by risk assessment at a large integrated health care network in Northern California.

Hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA VTE) is a preventable complication in hospitalized patients. We aimed to examine the use of pharmacologic prophylaxis (pPPX) and compare two risk assessment methods for HA VTE: a retrospective electronic Padua Score (ePaduaKP) and admitting clinician's choice of risk within the admission orderset (low, moderate, or high). We retrospectively analyzed prophylaxis orders for adult medical admissions (2013-2019) at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, excluding surgical and ICU patients. ePaduaKP was calculated for all admissions. For a subset of these admissions, clinician-assigned HA VTE risk was extracted. Descriptive pPPX utilization rates between ePaduaKP and clinician-assigned risk as well as concordance between ePaduaKP and clinician-assigned risk. Among 849,059 encounters, 82.2% were classified as low risk by ePaduaKP, with 42.3% receiving pPPX. In the subset with clinician-assigned risk (608,512 encounters), low and high ePaduaKP encounters were classified as moderate risk in 87.5% and 92.0% of encounters, respectively. Overall, 56.7% of encounters with moderate clinician-assigned risk received pPPX, compared to 7.2% of encounters with low clinician-assigned risk. pPPX use occurred in a large portion of low ePaduaKP risk encounters. Clinicians frequently assigned moderate risk to encounters at admission irrespective of their ePaduaKP risk when retrospectively examined. We hypothesize that the current orderset design may have negatively influenced clinician-assigned risk choice as well as pPPX utilization. Future work should explore optimizing pPPX for high-risk patients only.

Multimorbidity-associated emergency hospital admissions: a "screen and link" strategy to improve outcomes for high-risk patients in sub-Saharan Africa: a prospective multicentre cohort study protocol.

The prevalence of multimorbidity (the presence of two or more chronic health conditions) is rapidly increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. Hospital care pathways that focus on single presenting complaints do not address this pressing problem. This has the potential to precipitate frequent hospital readmissions, increase health system and out-of-pocket expenses, and may lead to premature disability and death. We aim to present a description of inpatient multimorbidity in a multicentre prospective cohort study in Malawi and Tanzania. Clinical: Determine prevalence of multimorbid disease among adult medical admissions and measure patient outcomes. Health Economic: Measure economic costs incurred and changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at 90 days post-admission. Situation analysis: Qualitatively describe pathways of patients with multimorbidity through the health system. Clinical: Determine hospital readmission free survival and markers of disease control 90 days after admission. Health Economic: Present economic costs from patient and health system perspective, sub-analyse costs and HRQoL according to presence of different diseases. Situation analysis: Understand health literacy related to their own diseases and experience of care for patients with multimorbidity and their caregivers. This is a prospective longitudinal cohort study of adult (≥18 years) acute medical hospital admissions with nested health economic and situation analysis in four hospitals: 1) Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi; 2) Chiradzulu District Hospital, Malawi; 3) Hai District Hospital, Boma Ng'ombe, Tanzania; 4) Muhimbili National Hospital, Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. Follow-up duration will be 90 days from hospital admission. We will use consecutive recruitment within 24 hours of emergency presentation and stratified recruitment across four sites. We will use point-of-care tests to refine estimates of disease pathology. We will conduct qualitative interviews with patients, caregivers, healthcare providers and policymakers; focus group discussions with patients and caregivers, and observations of hospital care pathways.

Acute symptomatic seizures in adults: a study on etiological profile

Background: Acute symptomatic seizures are clinical seizures occurring in close temporal relationship with an acute central nervous system (CNS) insult, which may be metabolic, toxic, structural, infectious or inflammatory. Currently there is dearth of information on the epidemiology of acute symptomatic seizures among adult medical admissions in Bangladesh. This study was designed to determine the frequency of presentation and etiology of acute symptomatic seizures among adults.
 Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of adult patients admitted with new onset seizure under Neurology Department of BIRDEM General Hospital during the period of January 2019 to December 2020. Clinical assessment and relevant investigations were done and data were collected regarding their etiological diagnosis. Data were analyzed using statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS) version 23.
 Results: Total admission during the study period was 2920 and among them, 100 patients (male 62, female 38) were having their first symptomatic seizures giving a prevalence of 3.4%. They were between 18 to 82 years of age. The main etiology of acute symptomatic seizure was metabolic encephalopathy (42.0%) .It was followed by acute cerebrovascular disease (31.0%) and acute CNS infection (16%) . Acute cerebrovascular disease and metabolic encephalopathy were predominant causes of symptomatic seizure among the elderly and CNS infections among the middle aged adults. The majority (70.0%) of patients had generalized onset seizures. Focal seizures and focal to bilateral tonic clonic seazure were present in 22% and 8% of the patients respectively.
 Conclusion: This study showed that metabolic encephalopathy, acute cerebrovascular disease and CNS infections were the prominent causes of acute symptomatic seizures. Treatment strategies should aim for promt identification and management of these conditions as seizures may not recur when the underlying cause has been removed or the acute phase has elapsed.
 BIRDEM Med J 2022; 12(2): 99-105

Diagnostic accuracy of the Abbott ID NOW SARS-CoV-2 rapid test for the triage of acute medical admissions

BackgroundDecisions to isolate patients at risk of having coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the emergency department (ED) must be rapid and accurate to ensure prompt treatment and maintain patient flow whilst minimising nosocomial spread. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays are too slow to achieve this, and near-patient testing is being used increasingly to facilitate triage. The ID NOW severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) assay is an isothermal nucleic acid amplification near-patient test which targets the RNA-dependent RNA-polymerase gene.AimTo assess the diagnostic performance of ID NOW as a COVID-19 triage tool for medical admissions from the ED of a large acute hospital.MethodsAll adult acute medical admissions from the ED between 31st March and 31st July 2021 with valid ID NOW and RT-PCR results were included. The diagnostic accuracy of ID NOW [sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV)] was calculated against the laboratory reference standard. Discrepant results were explored further using cycle threshold values and clinical data.FindingsTwo percent (124/6050) of medical admissions were SARS-CoV-2 positive on RT-PCR. Compared with PCR, ID NOW had sensitivity and specificity of 83.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) 75.4–88.7] and 99.5% (95% CI 99.3–99.6), respectively. PPV and NPV were 76.9% (95% CI 69.0–83.2) and 99.6% (95% CI 99.5–99.8), respectively. The median time from arrival in the ED to ID NOW result was 59 min.ConclusionID NOW provides a rapid and reliable adjunct for the safe triage of patients with COVID-19, and can work effectively when integrated into an ED triage algorithm.

Acting on better data for general medical care will help solve our acute hospital access crisis.

Acting on better data for general medical care will help solve our acute hospital access crisis.

Delirium in HIV-infected patients admitted to acute medical wards post universal access to antiretrovirals in South Africa.

Delirium is associated with increased mortality and length of hospital stay. Limited data are available from HIV-infected acute hospital admissions in developing countries. We conducted a prospective study of delirium among acute medical admissions in South Africa (SA), a developing country with universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) access and high burdens of tuberculosis (TB) and non-communicable disease. To identify the prevalence of, risk factors for and outcomes of delirium in HIV-infected individuals in acute general medical admissions. Three cohorts of adult acute medical admissions to Groote Schuur and Victoria Wynberg hospitals, Cape Town, SA, were evaluated for prevalent delirium within 24 hours of admission. Reference delirium testing was performed by either consultant physicians or neuropsychologists, using the Confusion Assessment Method. The study included 1 182 acute medical admissions, with 318 (26.9%) HIV-infected. The median (interquartile range) age and CD4 count were 35 (30 - 43) years and 132 (61 - 256) cells/µL, respectively, with 140/318 (44.0%) using ART on admission. The prevalence of delirium was 17.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 13.7 - 22.1) among HIV-infected patients, and delirium was associated with increased inpatient mortality. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, factors associated with delirium were age ≥55 years (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 6.95 (95% CI 2.03 - 23.67); p=0.002), and urea ≥15 mmol/L (aOR 4.83 (95% CI 1.7 - 13.44); p=0.003), while ART use reduced risk (p=0.014). A low CD4 count, an unsuppressed viral load and active TB were not predictors of delirium; nor were other previously reported risk factors such as non-opportunistic acute infections or polypharmacy. Delirium is common and is associated with increased mortality in HIV-infected acute medical admissions in endemic settings, despite increased ART use. Older HIV-infected patients with renal dysfunction are at increased risk for inpatient delirium, while those using ART on admission have a reduced risk.

Predictive accuracy of enhanced versions of the on-admission National Early Warning Score in estimating the risk of COVID-19 for unplanned admission to hospital: a retrospective development and validation study

BackgroundThe novel coronavirus SARS-19 produces ‘COVID-19’ in patients with symptoms. COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital require early assessment and care including isolation. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its updated version NEWS2 is a simple physiological scoring system used in hospitals, which may be useful in the early identification of COVID-19 patients. We investigate the performance of multiple enhanced NEWS2 models in predicting the risk of COVID-19.MethodsOur cohort included unplanned adult medical admissions discharged over 3 months (11 March 2020 to 13 June 2020 ) from two hospitals (YH for model development; SH for external model validation). We used logistic regression to build multiple prediction models for the risk of COVID-19 using the first electronically recorded NEWS2 within ± 24 hours of admission. Model M0’ included NEWS2; model M1’ included NEWS2 + age + sex, and model M2’ extends model M1’ with subcomponents of NEWS2 (including diastolic blood pressure + oxygen flow rate + oxygen scale). Model performance was evaluated according to discrimination (c statistic), calibration (graphically), and clinical usefulness at NEWS2 ≥ 5.ResultsThe prevalence of COVID-19 was higher in SH (11.0 %=277/2520) than YH (8.7 %=343/3924) with a higher first NEWS2 scores ( SH 3.2 vs YH 2.8) but similar in-hospital mortality (SH 8.4 % vs YH 8.2 %). The c-statistics for predicting the risk of COVID-19 for models M0’,M1’,M2’ in the development dataset were: M0’: 0.71 (95 %CI 0.68–0.74); M1’: 0.67 (95 %CI 0.64–0.70) and M2’: 0.78 (95 %CI 0.75–0.80)). For the validation datasets the c-statistics were: M0’ 0.65 (95 %CI 0.61–0.68); M1’: 0.67 (95 %CI 0.64–0.70) and M2’: 0.72 (95 %CI 0.69–0.75) ). The calibration slope was similar across all models but Model M2’ had the highest sensitivity (M0’ 44 % (95 %CI 38-50 %); M1’ 53 % (95 %CI 47-59 %) and M2’: 57 % (95 %CI 51-63 %)) and specificity (M0’ 75 % (95 %CI 73-77 %); M1’ 72 % (95 %CI 70-74 %) and M2’: 76 % (95 %CI 74-78 %)) for the validation dataset at NEWS2 ≥ 5.ConclusionsModel M2’ appears to be reasonably accurate for predicting the risk of COVID-19. It may be clinically useful as an early warning system at the time of admission especially to triage large numbers of unplanned hospital admissions.

Incidence of HIV-positive admission and inpatient mortality in Malawi (2012-2019).

ObjectiveTo investigate trends in population incidence of HIV positive hospital admission and risk of in-hospital death among adults living with HIV between 2012 and 2019 in Blantyre, Malawi.DesignPopulation cohort study using an existing electronic health information system (‘SPINE’) at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital and Blantyre census data.MethodsWe used multiple imputation and negative binomial regression to estimate population age- and sex-specific admission rates over time.We used a log-binomial model to investigate trends in risk of in-hospital death.ResultsOf 32,814 adult medical admissions during Q4.2012-Q3.2019, HIV status was recorded for 75.6%. HIV-positive admissions decreased substantially between 2012 and 2019. After imputation for missing data, HIV positive admissions were highest in Q3.2013 (173 per 100,000 adult Blantyre residents) and lowest in Q3.2019 (53 per 100,000 residents). An estimated 10,818 fewer than expected people living with HIV (PLHIV) (95%CI 10,068-11,568) were admitted during 2012-2019 compared to the counterfactual situation where admission rates stayed the same throughout this period. Absolute reductions were greatest for women aged 25-34 years (2,264 fewer HIV-positive admissions, 95%CI 2,002-2,526). In-hospital mortality for PLHIV was 23.5%, with no significant change over time in any age-sex group, and no association with ART use at admission.ConclusionsRates of admission for adult PLHIV decreased substantially, likely due to large increases in community provision of HIV diagnosis, treatment and care. However, HIV-positive in-hospital deaths remain unacceptably high, despite improvements in ART coverage. A concerted research and implementation agenda is urgently needed to reduce inpatient deaths among PLHIV.

Incidence of HIV-Related Hospital Admission and Inpatient Mortality in Malawi (2012-2019): A Population Cohort Study

Background: Hospital admission and discharge data from Southern and Eastern Africa are sparse but suggest that, despite impressive progress in population coverage of HIV testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes, many hospital admissions remain attributable to HIV. Methods: An inpatient electronic health information system (‘SPINE’) in Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH), Blantyre, Malawi recorded data from all adult medical admissions. We combined these with Malawi census data to investigate trends in admission rates for Blantyre residents between 2012 and 2019. Multiple imputation and negative binomial regression was used to estimate population age- and sex-specific admission rates over time. A log-binomial model was used to investigate trends in risk of in-hospital death. Results: Of 32,814 medical admissions during Q4.2012-Q3.2019, HIV status was recorded for 75.6%. ART coverage among hospitalised people living with HIV (PLHIV) increased from 66.0% in Q4.2012 to 92.5% in Q3.2019. After imputation for missing data, HIV-positive admissions per 100,000 Blantyre residents decreased substantially from peak Q3.2014 rates of 110 to 43 per 100,000 residents per quarter-year in Q3.2019. An estimated 10,818 fewer than expected PLHIV (95%CI 10,068-11,568) were admitted after 2012-2019 compared to the counterfactual situation where admission rates stayed the same throughout this period. Absolute reductions were greatest for women aged 25-34 years (2,264 fewer HIV-positive admissions, 95%CI 2,002-2,526). In-hospital mortality for PLHIV was 23.5%, with no significant change over time in any age-sex group, and no association with ART at admission. Discussion: Rates of admission for PLHIV decreased substantially, likely due to large increases in community provision of HIV diagnosis, treatment and care. However, HIV-positive in-hospital deaths remain unacceptably high, despite improvements in ART coverage. A concerted research and implementation agenda is urgently needed to reduce inpatient deaths among PLHIV. Funding Statement: SPINE received funding from Wellcome Core Grant to the Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust (reference 206545). RMB and PM are funded by Wellcome (203905/Z/16/Z and 206575/Z/17/Z, respectively). Declaration of Interests: MISSING Ethics Approval Statement: Use of anonymous electronic data (from SPINE project) was approved by QECH hospital research committee. Individual patient consent for anonymised secondary analysis was not sought.

Abstract 13910: Importance of Non-invasive Estimates of Left Ventricular Filling Pressures in Critically Ill Patients

Introduction: The presence of cardiac dysfunction predicts adverse outcomes in the intensive care unit (ICU). We explored the relationship of cardiac injury and left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) to outcomes in critically ill patients. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of adult medical ICU admissions from May, 2018 through October 2019. Patients with elevated high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-cTnT) and an echocardiogram performed within 72 hours of admission were included. Patients were classified as having normal LV diastolic function, isolated LVDD, concomitant LV diastolic and systolic dysfunction (LVDDSD) or indeterminate LV diastolic function based on American Society of Echocardiography 2016 guidelines. LV systolic dysfunction was defined as an ejection fraction (EF) < 50%. Results: Overall, 222 patients were included. LVDD was seen in 123 patients (55.4%). Thirty patients (13.5%) were classified with indeterminate diastolic function and 56 normal diastolic function (25.2%). Of those with LVDD , 59.3% had LVDDSD while isolated LVDD was seen in 40.7%.Patients with LVDDSD had a higher median hs-cTnT at baseline compared to patients with isolated LVDD [102ng/L IQR (50-257) vs. 77 ng/L (33.5-166); p=0.047]. Medial e’ velocity and tricuspid valve systolic regurgitant velocity were often associated with LV systolic dysfunction (p=0.0172 and 0.0013, respectively). LVDDSD was associated with a longer length of stay than patients with isolated LVDD [2.9 (1.6-4.0) vs.1.8 (1.1-3.3); p-value 0.03].Twenty-nine patients died during their ICU stay (13%). Patients with LVDDSD had 9.6-fold higher odds of dying in the ICU than patients with isolated LVDD (p=0.0048). Reduced medial e’ velocity (OR 0.63, CI 0.4-1.0, p=0.0285) and increased E/e’ (OR 1.08, CI 1.01-1.15, p=0.0192) were associated with ICU mortality. The association between LVEF<50% and ICU mortality was less pronounced (OR 0.95, CI 0.01-0.98; p=0.0023). Conclusions: Concomitant LV systolic and diastolic dysfunction and measures of increased cardiac filling pressures are strong predictors of mortality.

Neurological Morbidity and Mortality in a Neurological Low-Resource Setting: A 2-Year Audit of a Nigerian Hospital.

There is still a paucity of information on the burden of neurological disorders particularly in low-resource settings such as sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to report the burden of neurological disorders, including morbidity and mortality, in adult patients at a Northwestern Nigerian tertiary hospital over a 2-year period. An audit of adult medical admissions from July 1, 2015, to June 30, 2017, was conducted. Anonymized data on medical admissions were retrieved from admission registries. Primary and secondary outcomes of interest were neurological diagnoses and clinical outcomes, respectively. The Pearson χ and independent t tests were used to test for differences between neurological and general medical proportions and outcomes with a 5% significance level set. Over the 2-year period, 2772 adults were admitted. Neurological morbidity comprised almost a 10th of all adult medical admissions (9.1%), whereas neurological mortality accounted for more than a fifth of all deaths (22.2%). Stroke was the leading cause of neurological morbidity (62.9%) and mortality (79.8%). Infections of the nervous system and epilepsy were other frequent causes of neurological morbidity. Outcomes were poorer for neurological patients (fatality rates: neurological, 55.5%; medical, 19.5%, P<0.001). Neurological disorders were a significant cause of adult medical morbidity and, to a greater extent, of mortality. Cerebrovascular disease and infections of the nervous system were major drivers of mortality. Cost-effective strategies appropriate for low-resource settings are required to prevent and reverse these negative outcomes.

Peripheral Blood Myeloid/Platelet:Lymphoid Ratios Predict Mortality Risk Amongst 70,917 Emergency Medical Admissions: A Cohort Study

Background: Historical and recent studies find that elevation in the monocyte:lymphocyte(ML), neutrophil:lymphocyte(NL) or platelet:lymphocyte(PL) ratios are associated with impaired outcomes for a variety of infectious, malignant and cardiovascular diseases. Methods: We jointly considered absolute or relative blood counts amongst 70,917 adults admitted as emergency medical admissions to two centers in Oxfordshire between 2006-2010, for predicting all-cause mortality within 28 days of admission. Peripheral blood lymphocyte, monocyte, neutrophil and platelet counts or NL, ML and PL ratios were modeled as predictors of 28-day survival in Cox-proportional hazards models adjusting for sex and age using fractional polynomials to allow for non-linear associations. Results: Blood count variables improved the predictive power of a null model including age and sex only; NL, ML and PL ratio outperformed the respective constituent measures alone. Moreover, NL, ML and PL ratios are highly correlated. Amongst the three ratios, the NL ratio was of greatest discriminatory value (100-fold bootstrapped C-index=0.76), with elevation in the NL ratio associated with elevated hazards of death across age and sex strata and regardless of intercurrent infection or of extreme values. Discussion: Myeloid or platelet to lymphoid cell ratios are predictors of mortality. The peripheral blood NL ratio is superior to other measures for predicting mortality risk in adult emergency medical admissions. Our results reconcile the pleiotropic associations of the ML, NL and PL ratios in suggesting that the activity of platelet/myeloid-biased HSC may be an inherent feature of males and females across the adult age spectrum at elevated risk of death. Funding Statement: This study was supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford. Declaration of Interests: The authors have no competing interests to declare. Ethics Approval Statement: The Infections in Oxfordshire Research Database project has Research Ethics Committee and Health Research Authority approval (14/SC/1069, ECC5-07(a)/2009).

Audit of Early Mortality among Patients Admitted to the General Medical Ward at a District Hospital in Botswana.

Background:Mortality among adult general medical admissions has been reported to be high across sub-Saharan Africa, yet there is a paucity of literature on causes of general medical inpatient mortality and quality-related factors that may contribute to the high incidence of deaths. Based on a prior study at our hospital as well as our clinical experience, death early in the hospitalization is common among patients admitted to the adult medical wards.Objective:Quantify early inpatient mortality and identify factors contributing to early in-hospital mortality of medical patients in a resource-limited hospital setting in Botswana.Methods:Twenty-seven cases of patients who died within 48 hours of admission to the general medical wards at Scottish Livingstone Hospital in Molepolole, Botswana from December 1, 2015–April 25, 2016 were retrospectively reviewed through a modified root cause analysis.Findings:Early in-hospital mortality was most frequently attributed to septic shock, identified in 20 (74%) of 27 cases. The most common care management problems were delay in administration of antibiotics (15, 56%), inappropriate fluid management (15, 56%), and deficient coordination of care (15, 56%). The most common contributing factors were inadequate provider knowledge and skills in 25 cases (93%), high complexity of presenting condition in 20 (74%), and inadequate communication between team members in 18 (67%).Conclusions:Poor patient outcomes in low-and middle-income countries like Botswana are often attributed to resource limitations. Our findings suggest that while early in-hospital mortality in such settings is associated with severe presenting conditions like septic shock, primary contributors to lack of better outcomes may be healthcare-provider and system-factors rather than lack of diagnostic and therapeutic resources. Low-cost interventions to improve knowledge, skills and communication through a focus on provider education and process improvement may provide the key to reducing early in-hospital mortality and improving hospitalization outcomes in this setting.

Neurological disorders in a consultant hospital in Northern Tanzania. A cohort study.

ObjectivesTo determine the sociodemographic characteristics, clinical findings and outcome by HIV status in a series of adult patients presenting with neurological disorders (NDs) and admitted to a consultant hospital in Northern Tanzania.MethodsA cohort study took place over a 6-month period from Oct 2007 to March 2008 and included all adult patients with a neurological disorder admitted to the medical wards.ResultsA total of 1790 patients were admitted during this period, of whom 337 (18.8%) were diagnosed with a neurological disorder and formed the study group. Of these 337, 69 (20.5%) were HIV-positive. Among the 69 HIV positives, 25% were previously known to be HIV seropositive of whom 82% were on antiretroviral (ARV) medication. Seropositive patients were more likely than seronegative patients to be younger, better educated, have a business occupation, present clinically with confusion, headache and aphasia and have meningitis/CNS infection or a space occupying lesion. Seropositive patients were more likely to present with a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) of 9–12/15 (33.3% v 17.2%). Seropositive patients had a median CD4 T-lymphocyte count of 47cells/L and were more likely to be anaemic and have an elevated ESR. CT of the head was carried out on 132/337 (39%) patients. The overall findings were infarction 37%, hemorrhage 19%, tumors 15% and abscesses 9%. Brain abscess was more likely in seropositive patients and hemorrhage in seronegatives. The outcome at discharge for all patients was: death 27.6%, disability 54% and no disability 18.4% with death (39.1%) being more likely in seropositive patients. Patients presenting with coma (GCS <9/15) were more likely to die whilst those with stroke, para/quadriplegia and space occupying lesions (SOLs) were more likely to be discharged with disability. Case fatality rate was highest for tetanus 71.4%, meningitis 57.1%, cerebral malaria 42.9% and CNS infections 37.1%. Seropositive patients presenting with meningitis and other CNS infections were more likely to die than seronegatives.ConclusionThis study reports NDs occurring in one fifth of adult medical admissions with stroke and infections as the leading causes. The prevalence of HIV infection in NDs was 20%. The HIV positive cohort was characterized by advanced immunosuppression, CNS infections and high mortality.

Development and External Validation of an Automated Computer-Aided Risk Score for Predicting Sepsis in Emergency Medical Admissions Using the Patient's First Electronically Recorded Vital Signs and Blood Test Results.

To develop a logistic regression model to predict the risk of sepsis following emergency medical admission using the patient's first, routinely collected, electronically recorded vital signs and blood test results and to validate this novel computer-aided risk of sepsis model, using data from another hospital. Cross-sectional model development and external validation study reporting the C-statistic based on a validated optimized algorithm to identify sepsis and severe sepsis (including septic shock) from administrative hospital databases using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition, codes. Two acute hospitals (York Hospital - development data; Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital - external validation data). Adult emergency medical admissions discharged over a 24-month period with vital signs and blood test results recorded at admission. None. The prevalence of sepsis and severe sepsis was lower in York Hospital (18.5% = 4,861/2,6247; 5.3% = 1,387/2,6247) than Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital (25.1% = 7,773/30,996; 9.2% = 2,864/30,996). The mortality for sepsis (York Hospital: 14.5% = 704/4,861; Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital: 11.6% = 899/7,773) was lower than the mortality for severe sepsis (York Hospital: 29.0% = 402/1,387; Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital: 21.4% = 612/2,864). The C-statistic for computer-aided risk of sepsis in York Hospital (all sepsis 0.78; sepsis: 0.73; severe sepsis: 0.80) was similar in an external hospital setting (Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital: all sepsis 0.79; sepsis: 0.70; severe sepsis: 0.81). A cutoff value of 0.2 gives reasonable performance. We have developed a novel, externally validated computer-aided risk of sepsis, with reasonably good performance for estimating the risk of sepsis for emergency medical admissions using the patient's first, electronically recorded, vital signs and blood tests results. Since computer-aided risk of sepsis places no additional data collection burden on clinicians and is automated, it may now be carefully introduced and evaluated in hospitals with sufficient informatics infrastructure.

The clinical characteristics of adults with rheumatic heart disease in Yangon, Myanmar: An observational study.

BackgroundRheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a major cause of premature death in low and middle-income countries. The greatest barrier to RHD control is neglect of the disease in national health policies and a lack of prevalence data that might inform control efforts. Myanmar is making remarkable progress against many infectious diseases, but there are almost no data to define the clinical burden of RHD in the country. This prospective audit was performed in an adult medical ward of a tertiary-referral hospital in Yangon, to gain an insight into the prevalence of RHD in Myanmar.Principal findingsAll patients admitted to the ward between May 1, 2016 and April 30, 2017 were eligible for enrolment. RHD was confirmed in 96 patients who were admitted on 134 occasions, representing 1.1% of the 12,172 adult medical admissions during the study period. This compared with 410 (3.4%) admissions with HIV and 14 (0.1%) with malaria. Patients with RHD had a median age of 44 years (interquartile range: 35–59); 70 (73%) were female. Only one patient had ever had surgery despite 79 (82%) meeting criteria for intervention; 54 (56%) patients were not receiving any regular clinician review. Prior to hospitalisation only 18 (19%) patients were receiving regular penicillin. Only 8 (19%) of the 42 women <50 years were using contraception. Of 49 patients who had been hospitalised previously, 22 (45%) were receiving no regular therapy. During the study three (3.1%) patients died, and 28 (29%) were lost to follow-up. Of the 65 (68%) alive and retained in care, 21 (32%) were still experiencing moderate-severe RHD-related symptoms at the study’s end.ConclusionsThere is a significant and unmet clinical burden of RHD in Myanmar. A national RHD programme would improve patient care, reducing morbidity and mortality from this preventable disease.

Reduced level of arousal and increased mortality in adult acute medical admissions: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundReduced level of arousal is commonly observed in medical admissions and may predict in-hospital mortality. Delirium and reduced level of arousal are closely related. We systematically reviewed and conducted a meta-analysis of studies in adult acute medical patients of the relationship between reduced level of arousal on admission and in-hospital mortality.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42016022048), searching MEDLINE and EMBASE. We included studies of adult patients admitted with acute medical illness with level of arousal assessed on admission and mortality rates reported. We performed meta-analysis using a random effects model.ResultsFrom 23,941 studies we included 21 with 14 included in the meta-analysis. Mean age range was 33.4 - 83.8 years. Studies considered unselected general medical admissions (8 studies, n=13,039) or specific medical conditions (13 studies, n=38,882). Methods of evaluating level of arousal varied. The prevalence of reduced level of arousal was 3.1%-76.9% (median 13.5%). Mortality rates were 1.7%-58% (median 15.9%). Reduced level of arousal was associated with higher in-hospital mortality (pooled OR 5.71; 95% CI 4.21-7.74; low quality evidence: high risk of bias, clinical heterogeneity and possible publication bias).ConclusionsReduced level of arousal on hospital admission may be a strong predictor of in-hospital mortality. Most evidence was of low quality. Reduced level of arousal is highly specific to delirium, better formal detection of hypoactive delirium and implementation of care pathways may improve outcomes. Future studies to assess the impact of interventions on in-hospital mortality should use validated assessments of both level of arousal and delirium.

Impact of the level of sickness on higher mortality in emergency medical admissions to hospital at weekends.

Objective Routine administrative data have been used to show that patients admitted to hospitals over the weekend appear to have a higher mortality compared to weekday admissions. Such data do not take the severity of sickness of a patient on admission into account. Our aim was to incorporate a standardized vital signs physiological-based measure of sickness known as the National Early Warning Score to investigate if weekend admissions are: sicker as measured by their index National Early Warning Score; have an increased mortality; and experience longer delays in the recording of their index National Early Warning Score. Methods We extracted details of all adult emergency medical admissions during 2014 from hospital databases and linked these with electronic National Early Warning Score data in four acute hospitals. We analysed 47,117 emergency admissions after excluding 1657 records, where National Early Warning Score was missing or the first (index) National Early Warning Score was recorded outside ±24 h of the admission time. Results Emergency medical admissions at the weekend had higher index National Early Warning Score (weekend: 2.53 vs. weekday: 2.30, p < 0.001) with a higher mortality (weekend: 706/11,332 6.23% vs. weekday: 2039/35,785 5.70%; odds ratio = 1.10, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20, p = 0.04) which was no longer seen after adjusting for the index National Early Warning Score (odds ratio = 0.99, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.09, p = 0.87). Index National Early Warning Score was recorded sooner (-0.45 h, 95% CI -0.52 to -0.38, p < 0.001) for weekend admissions. Conclusions Emergency medical admissions at the weekend with electronic National Early Warning Score recorded within 24 h are sicker, have earlier clinical assessments, and after adjusting for the severity of their sickness, do not appear to have a higher mortality compared to weekday admissions. A larger definitive study to confirm these findings is needed.