Adoption Of Inflation Targeting Research Articles

The choice of monetary regimes in emerging market economies: Inflation targeting versus its alternatives

This paper examines the macroeconomic, financial, and institutional factors that affect the adoption of inflation targeting vis-a-vis alternative monetary policy strategies for 44 emerging market economies during 1990–2017. We employ a multinomial logistic regression with inflation targeting and exchange rate pegs as treatment groups, and intermediary monetary strategies as the baseline group. The main findings from our study are as follows: higher average inflation is associated with lower probability of adopting inflation targeting; while both output growth and its volatility make the adoption of inflation targeting less likely. Concerning the effects of the control variables, financial sector development, central bank independence, greater exposure to capital flows, and the level of economic development are all associated with higher likelihood of adopting inflation targeting, whereas higher public debt, trade openness, and money growth have the opposite effect. Macroeconomic conditions seem to have different impact on the choice of inflation targeting and exchange rate pegs, whereas similar institutional conditions are conducive to the implementation of both regimes. Finally, the effects of macroeconomic and institutional conditions do not depend on the type of inflation targeting.

Inflation at risk in advanced and emerging market economies

Using quantile regression techniques, we study the drivers of inflation risks in a large panel of advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs). We document several facts regarding the inflation forecast distribution and highlight some key differences between these two groups of countries. First, the exchange rate has a quantitatively important and non-linear impact on the inflation outlook in EMEs: a depreciation is associated with larger increases in the upper quantiles than in the lower quantiles, increasing the right skewness of the distribution. By contrast, there is no evidence of such non-linearities for advanced economies. Second, tighter financial conditions in EMEs carry both downside and upside risks to inflation, while having a muted impact on the modal or mean outcome. This is in contrast to advanced economies, where only downside risks prove sensitive. Third, the zero lower bound on policy rates translates into substantial downside risks to inflation. Finally, the adoption of inflation targeting is associated not only with lower mean inflation but also with a less right-skewed distribution. Our findings underscore the importance of including non-linearities in structural models of inflation dynamics.

The impact of monetary policy on income inequality: Does inflation targeting matter?

Does inflation targeting affect the nexus between monetary policy and income inequality? We address this question by estimating country-specific structural vector autoregression models across the G7 economies. We find that contractionary monetary policy shocks increase income inequality when using a long period of data from 1974–2019. However, controlling for the adoption of inflation targeting reduces the size of this effect in Japan and the UK, and it disappears altogether in Canada and the US. This suggests that country-specific inflation targeting may mitigate the inequality-inducing effects of unanticipated monetary contractions. In contrast, mixed evidence is found for Eurozone countries: France, Germany, and Italy.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting: The Effectiveness of Central Bank Interventions

Central banks throughout the world have adopted inflation targeting as their main policy goal in the last several decades, drastically altering monetary policy—a pillar of economic management. the complex interplay between monetary policy, central bank interventions and measures for controlling inflation, and the success or failure of inflation targeting as a whole. This research aims to shed light on the extent to which central bank operations impact inflation results and the larger economic environment by conducting a thorough review of empirical evidence, case studies, and theoretical frameworks.

Inflation targeting and fiscal policy volatility: Evidence from developing countries

This paper studies the effect of inflation targeting (IT) on fiscal policy volatility. Using data for 83 developing countries over 1985-2020, estimations based on impact analysis methods reveal that IT adoption reduces fiscal policy volatility. This result is robust when using a wide set of alternative specifications related to additional control variables, different samples, alternative measures of the main variables, or alternative estimation methods. Consequently, contributing to the ongoing literature on fiscal policy volatility, our results suggest that reforms of the monetary policy management in the form of IT adoption may provide a useful policy for fighting fiscal discretion towards a reduction of fiscal policy volatility.

Regional house price convergence: implications of monetary policy

ABSTRACT Motivated by the structural change since the adoption of inflation targeting in October 1992, this research investigates regional house price convergence in the UK over the period 1973:Q4–2020:Q4. By using subsample comparisons, results show that all regions in the inflation-targeting regime converges to one club until the Global Financial Crisis. The finding suggests that the successful inflation-targeting policy can promote integration among regions.

Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Distortion and Output Stabilisation A Case of Zimbabwe Disinflation

Inflation targeting (IT) is practised in many countries and the real effects of strict inflation targeting were investigated on several occasions and less on other variants of IT. The study investigates the effects of inflation targeting lite on output. In particular, the compatibility of inflation targeting lite with managed exchange rate regime on output stabilization. The inflation targeting regime, the operating environment and exchange rate regimes were reviewed for Zimbabwe. An ARDL model was adopted as the empirical strategy to investigate the compatibility problem and the real effects of IT lite. Modelling output as output gap, inflation targeting lite and the exchange rate regimes were found to be inconsistent with output stabilization. IT lite and exchange rate premium increased the output gap, however the interaction between IT lite and exchange rate premium had negative effects on output. These results hold for both the short run and long run. However, considering the official rate and parallel rate separately, parallel rate has a negative effect but its interaction with IT has positive effects. The study recommends that developing countries should consider the exchange rate systems before the adoption of IT as a monetary policy framework. A floating exchange rate seemed to be compatible with IT lite.

Improving Macroeconomic Management: Experiences and Lessons

The relationship between growth and macroeconomic stability is a wellestablished phenomenon. Long-term growth requires a higher level of investment and a stable economic environment contributes in promoting saving and investment. Good macroeconomic policies help attract foreign saving. Sound fiscal and monetary policies create a conducive climate for private investment and economic growth. So, the policymakers need to redress the problems of domestic and external financial imbalances by designing and implementing an appropriate mix of policies for achieving higher growth, lower price uncertainty, reduced external imbalances, and other macroeconomic vulnerabilities. So, the important issues facing the policymakers are designing sound exchange rate arrangement, making current account sustainable, and promoting financial and macroeconomic stability. In order to promote sound macroeconomic environment for attaining sustained economic growth, there is a need to pursue more flexible exchange rate regime and make progress toward adopting inflation targeting in addition to improving the financial sector soundness, strength and stability.

Does monetary policy really matter for environmental protection? The case of inflation targeting

Empirical work examining the role of monetary policy on environmental issues are rather scarce. This study examines how inflation targeting (IT) relates to environmental pollution in samples of 22 Developed Market Economies (DMEs) and 25 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) over the period 1980–2017. Using a parametric approach (two-step system-generalized method of moments), we find that IT significantly reduces emissions of polluting gases, specifically carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and total greenhouse gases (GHG) in DMEs and EMEs. In order to take into account, the existence of a potential self-selection bias in the adoption of IT, we subsequently resorted to a non-parametric approach, namely propensity score matching. The results confirm those obtained in the parametric approach. Then, using structural equation modeling, we find that IT reduces environmental pollution mainly through the financial instability channel. In addition, based on the insights from the recent literature, we test the moderating role of financial development and financial stability. The results indicate that these variables reduce the “green effect” of IT. Ultimately, our findings provide an interesting empirical basis for policymakers to help them build a sound macroeconomic and financial framework that promotes more environmentally friendly financial behaviors.

Anticipation of central banks' adoption of inflation targeting and its effect on inflation

We construct an empirical test of whether the anticipation of adoption of inflation targeting affects the inflation rate. We observe that most of the central banks adopt the regime after first achieving significant disinflation. With pre-inflation-targeting-disinflation, initial targets are met with success and the new regime gains credibility. Working with data for 114 emerging market, advanced and low-income economies, we identify the effect using forward-looking dynamic panel data models in a difference-in-difference framework. We find that inflation targeting is successful in locking-in already low inflation rather than reducing high inflation. The analysis has important implications for central banks looking forward to adoption of inflation targeting.

Inflation targeting and the composition of public expenditure: Evidence from developing countries

An important literature shows that inflation targeting (IT) adoption improves fiscal discipline. Our impact assessment analysis performed in a large sample of 89 developing countries over three decades shows that this favorable impact covers a composition effect: IT adoption is found to reduce more current expenditure compared with public investment in IT countries relative to non-IT countries. This finding is robust to various alternative specification, related to the structure of the sample, the measurement of the IT regime, or the estimation method. Consequently, aside from its acknowledged benefits for monetary policy goals, IT appears as an efficient tool to strengthen fiscal policy in developing countries towards lower and more productive public expenditure.

Challenges to Disinflation: The Brazilian Experience

ABSTRACT: We review two previous bouts of high inflation and disinflation since Brazil adopted inflation targeting. In both episodes, fiscal sustainability concerns were present and inflation expectations became unanchored despite substantial monetary policy tightening. Disinflation and the reanchoring of expectations took time and proved costly, as both episodes entailed a recession. They required tight monetary policy combined with critical shifts toward structural economic reforms and sound fiscal policy. The ongoing episode features the same fiscal concerns and unanchored inflation expectations. This suggests the path ahead for disinflation will be challenging, unless policies change direction. We also speculate whether the Brazilian experience can provide insights for other countries.

Adopting Inflation Targeting in Emerging Markets: Exploring the Factors behind the Decision

Adopting Inflation Targeting in Emerging Markets: Exploring the Factors behind the Decision

Macro Effects of Formal Adoption of Inflation Targeting

Macro Effects of Formal Adoption of Inflation Targeting

THE ROLE OF INFLATION TARGETING ON EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY: AN EVIDENCE FROM PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING APPROACH

This study examines the treatment effects of inflation targeting on exchange rate volatility across a large panel of 91 (36 inflation targeting) countries over the 1985-2019 period on annual basis. We apply propensity score matching methods to developed, developing, and high-income inflation targeting countries and non-inflation targeting countries. Our results reveal that, on average, adopting the inflation targeting policy exerts lower exchange rate volatility in all sample and developing economies. However, subgroups results demonstrate that inflation targeting regimes may lead to higher exchange rate volatility in developed and high-income economies. The outcome from different degrees of flexibility of exchange rates subgroups points out that the inflation targeting regime has significant and lower exchange rate volatility under free-floating regimes however this policy stance has no discernible effect on floating regimes. Additionally, adopted inflation targeting countries are affected by less damage on exchange rate volatility than those adopting exchange rate targeting regimes.

Monetary policy transmission, productive activity, and inflation in Brazil: Does uncertainty matter?

This research paper aimed to assess the impact of uncertainties on the outcomes of monetary policy in Brazil after the adoption of inflation targeting. To this end, we adopted the methodology of vector autoregressions with an endogenous threshold (TVAR) and four distinct indicators to characterize regimes of high vs. low macroeconomic uncertainty. The analyzed sample varied from 2003 to 2021, with monthly data. Our results showed that uncertainty tended to increase during recessions in the country. Furthermore, in periods of higher instability, policy interest rate shocks exerted a lesser effect on aggregate production. However, the most significant influence of uncertainty occurred regarding inflation control, which was severely reduced when compared to more tranquil periods. Therefore, we concluded that uncertainty can harm monetary policy transmission in Brazil, especially for the adjustment of prices.

How to improve the continuity of central bank governors after natural disasters

Central banks have increasingly integrated sustainability objectives into their mandates, opening the influence of environmental risks in the appointment of central banks' officials. This paper presents the significance of natural disasters on the probability of a central bank governor's removal from office. The panel data from 99 countries from 1970 to 2018 using the semiparametric Cox proportional-hazards model (CPHM) was used. Our empirical results show that natural disasters raise the possibility that a central bank governor is replaced. The magnitudes of these impacts are heterogeneous across natural-disaster types and are robust when economic and political factors are controlled and different model specifications are used. The adverse effects of natural calamities become pronounced when central banks do not adopt inflation targeting, have low financial stabilities, and do not set sustainability objectives. Our findings suggest important policy implications for the political appointments.

Inflation targeting and its spillover effects on financial stability in emerging market economies

In this paper, we study whether adoption of inflation targeting monetary policy framework has spillover effects on financial stability in emerging market economies. Working with data for 64 emerging market economies, we develop financial stability and sector specific stability indices and identify the effect using dynamic panel data models in difference-in-difference framework. We find significant positive spillover effects of inflation targeting adoption on banking system resilience and external capital inflows arising from improved transparency and accountability of the central banks. Based on the results, the paper recommends to emerging market economies which are currently under inflation targeting lite regime, to adopt full-fledged inflation targeting monetary policy.

Does inflation targeting increase income inequality?

We contribute to the growing empirical literature on the impact of monetary policy on income distribution by focusing on the impact of adopting an inflation targeting (IT) regime to guide monetary policy. We assess the impact employing a panel of 121 advanced and developing economies, including 27 IT adopters, during the period 1971–2015. Our results suggest that IT adoption has contributed to greater inequality of household income as measured by the Gini coefficient and to a reduced share of GDP going to labor compensation. The results are robust to alternative estimation methodologies and to variations in the sample with respect to countries and data frequency.

한국의 실질금리 기간구조와 실질 기간 프리미엄

This study estimates the real term structure and real term premium of Korea. To do this, we construct an analytical real term structure and real term premium from a macro-finance affine term structure models with two macro variables. The macro factors include industrial production growth rate and inflation rate from January 2001 to August 2021. Our estimation results are based on Bayesian MCMC algorithm. We show that the real yield is downward trend after financial crisis. Compared to the nominal yield, it also exhibits relatively high persistent, less fluctuation and more stable. On the other hand, the real term premium is similar to the nominal term premium, since the inflation risk premium hardly different from zero on average. This result seems to be due to the fact that Korea inflation has maintained stable after adopting inflation targeting as a monetary policy.