Administrative Tax Data Research Articles

Impact of automotive tax incentives during Covid-19

In 2021, as part of the Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional/ National Economic Recovery (PEN) program, the government introduced additional tax incentives to boost durable goods consumption, the PPnBM incentives, for qualified new car purchases. This study aims to explore the PPnBM incentives’ impact on automotive sectors in 2021, utilizing the Interrupted Time-Series Analysis (ITSA) methodology and seasonal forecasting method with Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for four years from 2018 until 2021. In particular, using the automobile wholesales and tax administration data, this paper assesses the impact of the PPnBM incentives on car wholesales, participating firms’ sales, purchases, and wage expenditure. The impact of the PPnBM incentives on automotive sectors in 2021 suggested no significant difference in incentives-qualifying cars’ wholesales before and after the PPnBM incentives. However, the impact of the PPnBM incentives on total sales recovery resulted in the incentive participants recovering their total sales to the pre-Covid-19 level. In general, from the variables tested, the result suggests that the PPnBM incentives had a modest impact on wholesale recovery and economic activity for participating automotive manufacturers during the incentives period.

Innis Lecture: The time of your life: The mortality and longevity of Canadians

AbstractI develop and implement a methodology for cohort life expectancy using a panel of administrative tax data on a large sample born between 1930 and 1964. Over these 35 years, cohort life expectancy after age 54 grew by five years for women and seven years for men. The income–longevity gradient for the top 5% vs. bottom 5% of incomes is nine years of post‐54 life for men and seven years for women. The life expectancy improvements arise across the income distribution in Canada, unlike the United States. Large differences across neighbourhoods emerge that cannot be explained by income differences alone.

A policy for the jobless youth in South Africa

This paper uses survey and tax administrative data to analyse the effects of a sizeable employer-borne payroll tax credit for young, low-wage workers in South Africa. We find fairly limited impacts of the wage subsidy on the employment of young, low-wage workers relative to two comparison groups: slightly older, low-wage workers and slightly higher-paid, young workers. We find evidence of increases in low-wage youth entry into employment, but these are too small to affect overall employment. However, the female employment rate has increased, and unemployment among women has dropped because of the policy. We find evidence to suggest that the policy has led to a rise in earnings, particularly for men and those earning around the maximum subsidy value.

What you do (not) get when expanding the net-evidence from forced taxpayer registrations in South Africa

A significant share of firms in developing countries is not registered for income taxation. Expanding the tax net is a priority for many governments, but most formalization policies proved relatively ineffective in bringing firms into the tax net. Drawing on rich tax administrative data, we document that snapshot-synchronizations of the business tax and the commercial registry in South Africa led to a large-scale expansion of the South African business taxpayer net. While the targeted firms are a valuable segment within the non-formal sector, we show that their post-registration tax compliance is weak and few of them pay taxes. Owing to the large scope of the tax net expansion, the aggregate revenue gains are, nevertheless, non-negligible and the interventions are fiscally cost-effective. In additional analyses, we provide evidence for enforcement spillovers: In areas where many firms were drawn into the tax net, tax registration timing compliance significantly improved after the snapshot synchronizations. We find no indication of a drop in registration numbers at the commercial registry.

Differential Bunching Impacts Across the Income Distribution: Evidence from Tax Administrative Data

AbstractWe investigate the behavioural responses of individual taxpayers to changes in marginal personal income tax rates applying empirical bunching methodology to tax administrative data from Zambia over the period from 2014 to 2021. We find evidence for excess bunching at the first kink in the tax schedule for all years but less evidence of bunching at the second and third thresholds. While bunching is considerable and behavioural responses are observed to changes in the location of the kinks over time, bunching at reference points (’round-number bunching’) also appears large. Implied elasticities of taxable income are however not remarkable, and comparing actual and estimated counterfactual wage distributions reveal that missed tax revenue arising from the excess bunching is limited. This is consistent with the observed bunching reacting sharply and immediately to changes in the location of the kink points over time, suggesting that observed behavioural change is driven by reporting behaviour rather than real economic responses.

Leaders’ capabilities and organizational efficiency: Evidence from the national taxation bureaucracy in China

Tax authority leaders have a significant impact on organizational efficiency, which is mainly manifested in tax collection efficiency. Based on provincial tax administrative data and data on listed companies from 1998 to 2017, we examine the impact of the capabilities of leaders of the National Taxation Bureaucracy (NTB) on tax collection efficiency. We adopt the fixed effects approach and isolate the individual effects of NTB directors as a proxy of leaders’ capabilities. We find that directors with stronger capabilities enhance tax revenue growth and complete tax revenue tasks by affecting corporate income taxes. The findings suggest that more capable directors are found to severely combat tax evasion and avoidance. Specifically, taxable income approved by the NTB, preferential tax policies and tax auditing have been used to combat tax evasion. We also clarify the boundaries of leaders’ capabilities. We provide supportive evidence for leaders’ individual impact on tax collection efficiency and enrich the study of tax collection and administration.

Inequality Bands: Seventy-five years of measuring income inequality in Latin America

Abstract Drawing on a comprehensive compilation of quantile shares and inequality measures for 34 countries, including over 5600 estimated Gini coefficients, we review the measurement of income inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean over the last seven decades. We find that there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding inequality levels for the same country/year combinations. Differences in inequality levels estimated from household surveys alone are present but they derive from differences in the construction of the welfare indicator, the unit of analysis, or the treatment of the data. With harmonized household surveys, the discrepancies are quite small. The range, however, expands significantly when –to correct for undercoverage and underreporting especially at the top of the distribution– inequality estimates come from some combination of surveys and administrative tax data. The range increases even further when survey-based income aggregates are scaled to achieve consistency not only with tax registries but with National Accounts. Since no single method to correct for underreporting at the top is fully convincing at present, we are left with (often wide) ranges, or bands, of inequality as our best summaries of inequality levels. Reassuringly, however, the dynamic patterns are generally robust across the bands. Although the evidence roughly until the 1970s is too fragmentary and difficult to compare, clearer patterns emerge for the last fifty years. The main feature is a broad inverted U curve, with inequality rising in most countries prior to and often during the 1990s, and falling during the early 21st century, at least until around 2015, when trends appear to diverge across countries. This pattern is broadly robust but features considerable variation in timing and magnitude depending on the country.

Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn about the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers

Recently, studying income by race and ethnicity has gained interest among policymakers. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regularly reports on the distribution of household income, using a statistically matched dataset with survey and administrative tax data to account for the household resources for both tax filers and nonfilers. CBO has not evaluated whether the statistical match preserves the distribution of income by race and ethnicity reported in the survey. This preliminary analysis of CBO's statistically matched data by race and ethnicity uses information from survey data linked to administrative tax data at the individual level from the US Census Bureau.

Do tax audits have a dynamic impact? Evidence from corporate income tax administrative data

Making use of a unique administrative data set consisting of the universe of administrative filings in Rwanda, this paper investigates the impact of tax audits on businesses’ reporting behaviour. The evidence suggests that tax audits have a positive impact on corporate income and corporate tax liabilities reported for three years after the start of the audit process. The results also suggest that the type of audit matters. While ‘comprehensive’ tax audits have a significant positive effect on compliance, ‘narrow-scope’ tax audits exhibit both a positive and a negative effect during a three-year period after the audit, with the net impact being negative. The implication of this, from a tax compliance perspective, is that ‘narrow-scope’ audits are ineffective and that doing more of those and less of comprehensive ones might have a negative impact on tax compliance. Effective tax compliance strategy therefore requires the careful evaluation of all types of audits.

The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian households

This paper examines heterogeneity in household income and consumption responses to unemployment, using granular administrative tax data from Norway. On average, unemployment results in a significant, lasting income reduction, accompanied by a decrease in consumption expenditures of between one-third to one-half of the income loss. We find that households with greater liquid assets at the outset experience less of a decline in consumption, whereas those with higher levels of debt encounter a more substantial decrease. Notably, also the interaction of liquid assets and debt holdings matters for the consumption response. While households with larger initial liquid asset holdings on average respond less, the analyses show that this is not the case among households that simultaneously hold substantial amounts of debt, thus adding to a more nuanced view of the importance of household heterogeneity for economic outcomes. Furthermore, our investigation into heterogeneity across family composition and child age uncovers distinct patterns in consumption responses, highlighting the varied impacts of unemployment. Lastly, we find that spending patterns, as indicated by the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), become more pronounced during recessions.

How Have Formal Firms Recovered From the Pandemic? Insights From Survey and Tax Administrative Data in Zambia

Abstract This paper examines how formal firms have been impacted by and recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, by drawing on two distinct but complementary data sources. This is the first attempt to use both survey and tax administrative data to measure the impact of the pandemic in a developing country. The findings of three rounds of follow-up surveys to a standard World Bank Enterprise Survey completed immediately before the pandemic are compared to the universe of value-added tax and personal income tax returns filed by firms in Zambia. Despite substantial differences in the breadth and depth of these data sources, they show a very similar pattern. The sales of formal firms recovered from the pandemic far more strongly than their employment levels. By July 2021, both the survey and tax administrative data show that most firms experienced a complete recovery in sales, while levels of employment worsened throughout the pandemic for many firms. The tax administrative data show that even two and a half years following the start of the pandemic, employment in formal firms remained well below pre-pandemic levels. The key insight that emerges from this analysis is that formal firms appear to have adjusted their operations in a way that reduced their need for as much labor to achieve the same (or higher) level of sales. As such in response to an unprecedented shock, productivity gains within formal firms were possible through the shredding of somewhat unproductive labor inputs, which can often be more challenging in a stable setting.

Elderly responses to private health insurance incentives: Evidence from Australia.

Many governments with dual public and private health systems offer subsidies for private health insurance (PHI) with the aim to ease the burden on the public system. Understanding how elderly individuals respond to these PHI subsidies is important because they typically have greater health care needs but often struggle with the affordability of PHI. However, prior studies provide little guidance on this issue because they have mainly focused on the responses to PHI incentives among the general population. This paper leverages a unique age-specific policy intervention in Australia that provided higher rebates for individuals over the age of 65. Using administrative tax data, we examine how this policy affected PHI take-up decisions of elderly individuals under an event study difference-in-differences framework. We find that higher rebates led to a modest increase in PHI take-up. The estimated price elasticities of PHI demand were in the -0.1 to -0.2 range in the first 2years of the policy. Moreover, the demand responses were more elastic among those with low incomes. Our findings indicate that a more targeted subsidy program, specially tailored to low-income elders, would yield greater effectiveness in increasing PHI take-up.

The taxman cometh: Pathways out of a low‐capacity trap in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

AbstractHow might fragile states escape a low‐capacity trap in which citizens pay little tax and the government has insufficient revenue to increase enforcement or provide public goods? We argue that governments can escape such traps by regularizing tax collection. When citizens observe taxes being collected in a systematic, non‐arbitrary manner, they are likely to update positively about the procedural performance of the government, increasing their intrinsic motivation to comply. We test this idea in the first door‐to‐door property tax collection campaign in Kananga, Democratic Republic of the Congo, which raised compliance from near zero to 10.3%. Linking pre‐campaign surveys with administrative tax data, we document a strong relationship between citizens' prior perceptions of government performance and property tax payment. Then, exploiting the campaign's random roll‐out, we find that systematic tax collection caused citizens to update positively about the government's procedural performance. Together, these results are consistent with a virtuous cycle of perceived government performance and fiscal capacity.

Employer-sponsored health insurance premiums and income in U.S. tax data

The distribution of employer-sponsored health insurance premiums in the United States is difficult to fully characterize with survey data. Using administrative tax data, we plot the population distribution of premiums and provide new evidence about the relationship between premiums and demographic characteristics, including income. The distribution of premiums measured in the tax data is comparable to survey data. People with higher incomes are more likely to have an employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) policy and, conditional on having a policy, select more expensive plans. Because higher income policyholders and their employers spend more on ESI, they also receive a disproportionate amount of government subsidies for health insurance, even when we account for non-ESI subsidies through Medicare, Medicaid, and Premium Tax Credits. Even though the distribution of health subsidies is skewed toward those with higher incomes, it is less than a quarter as unequal as the distribution of income itself.

The effect of late payment penalties on the payment timing of owed taxes

This paper studies the effectiveness of a policy designed to influence the timing decision for payments of owed taxes. Owed taxes arise when the sum of the foregoing tax year’s preliminary tax payments falls short of the total tax liability. In 2009 the Danish tax authority (SKAT) introduced an annualised penalty rate of 4.6%. Using administrative tax data, I show that the penalty rate introduction led to a 50-day advancement of payments.

Delivering Aid to Businesses through the Payroll Tax System: The Case of the Employee Retention Credit

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Congress enacted the Employee Retention Credit (ERC), a payroll tax credit paid to firms experiencing pandemic-related hardship. This paper uses administrative tax data to study the claiming of this credit. While firms have claimed nearly $100 billion of the credit, we find take-up to be highly imperfect even in contexts where nearly universal eligibility is expected. We find that the credit was mostly paid as a lump sum after the end of the quarter. Finally, we find that the progressivity of the ERC depends on whether the incidence of the ERC fell on business owners or employees.

The “Long-arm” of chronic conditions in childhood: Evidence from Canada using linked survey-administrative data

The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between health conditions in childhood (ages 4–11), and health and socioeconomic outcomes in adulthood (ages 21–33). This study takes advantage of a new linkage between the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) and administrative tax data from the T1 Family File (T1FF) from Statistics Canada. The NLSCY includes rich longitudinal information on child development, while the T1FF includes administrative tax information on each child in adulthood (e.g., income, social assistance). The primary measures of child health relate to the diagnosis of a chronic condition, affecting the child’s physical or mental/developmental health. The results suggest that mental/developmental health conditions in childhood more negatively influence adult health and socioeconomic conditions, compared to physical health conditions. Interaction models reveal modest heterogenous effects; for example, there is some evidence of a cushioning effect from higher household income in childhood, as well as an exacerbating negative effect from lower birth weight for mental/developmental health conditions. Using a covariate decomposition approach to explore underlying pathways, the results reveal that associations between health in early life and outcomes in adulthood are partially explained by differences in cognitive skills (i.e., mathematics test scores) in adolescence (ages 16–17). Results may encourage policy investments to mitigate the occurrence of health conditions in childhood and to ensure timely access to educational supports and health services for children with chronic conditions.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE IN SURVEY AND ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

AbstractUnemployment Insurance (UI) benefits were a central part of the social safety net during the COVID‐19 recession. UI benefits, however, are severely understated in surveys. Using administrative tax data, we find that over half of UI benefits were missed in major survey data, with a greater understatement among low‐income workers. As a result, 2020 official poverty rates were overstated by about 2 percentage points, and corrected poverty reached a six‐decade low. We provide data to correct underreporting in surveys and show that, compared to UI benefits, the UI exclusion tax expenditure was less targeted at low incomes.

Emergency Savings among Persistently Poor Households: Evidence from a Field Experiment

AbstractLow-income households struggle to accumulate emergency savings, which increases economic vulnerability in the face of unexpected events like expensive car repairs. This vulnerability may be even greater among persistently low-income households, which might benefit most from building emergency savings using tax refunds. This study examined the effects of randomly assigned behavioral interventions that incorporated a choice architecture manipulation and savings-related messages aimed at encouraging refund saving and delivered through a free, online tax-filing software program. The study sample comprised 4,536 tax filers, including 1,235 with persistent low incomes. Using administrative tax data and data from a two-wave household financial survey, regression-adjusted treatment impacts were estimated using intent-to-treat analysis to examine whether filers had any of their tax refunds still in savings and how much of their refund they still had saved six months after filing their taxes. Results indicated directional but nonstatistically significant increases in these savings outcomes across three treatment groups for the full sample, yet statistically significant treatment effects among the persistently low-income subsample, effects that were moderated by the prefiling absence of emergency resources. These results suggested that tax-time savings interventions are most effective among low-income households with the greatest needs for emergency savings.

The returns to an additional year of education for college graduates

This paper estimates the returns to an additional year of advanced undergraduate education among students who would otherwise graduate with a bachelor’s degree using administrative student records merged with survey data on earnings from the largest public university in Singapore. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits the fact that in some faculties, enrollment in the fourth (honors) year is governed by a grade-based eligibility rule. Students with average grades in their third year just above the threshold are significantly more likely to complete the fourth year and have higher earnings after graduation relative to students who narrowly missed the grade cutoff. The implied earnings return to the additional year of college is about 12 % six months after graduation. Linked administrative tax data confirm persistent gains in the longer run for at least 4 years after graduation. Moreover, the return remains substantial even after the university lowers the threshold to encourage more students to enroll in the fourth year, suggesting an effect not entirely driven by signaling of student ability.