Administrative Panel Data Research Articles

Divided we abstain: Testing the effect of local income inequality on individual-level turnout using Norwegian administrative panel data

This paper investigates the relationship between income inequality and voting by utilizing exceptionally granular data that offer novel insights into local disparities. Existing research documents a larger turnout gap between rich and poor in areas characterized by high income inequality, causing concerns about further underrepresentation for low-income individuals and a larger democratic deficit. While previous studies have focused on inequality at higher aggregation levels, this paper advances the field by employing administrative data with complete income and validated voting records measuring inequality for neighborhoods hosting 1212 residents on average. The longitudinal setup allows rigorous modeling following the same individual in the same context over time. The results suggest that living in a neighborhood where the income difference between rich and poor becomes more pronounced discourages participation in national elections among low-income voters while it boosts participation among the rich, further accentuating the class-based inequality in political voice.

What drives the relationship between digitalization and energy demand? Exploring heterogeneity in German manufacturing firms

The growing use of information and communication technologies (ICT) has the potential to increase productivity and improve energy efficiency. However, digital technologies also consume energy, resulting in a complex relationship between digitalization and energy demand and an uncertain net effect. To steer digital transformation towards sustainability, it is crucial to understand the conditions under which digital technologies increase or decrease firm-level energy consumption. This study examines the drivers of this relationship, focusing on German manufacturing firms and leveraging comprehensive administrative panel data from 2009 to 2017, analyzed using the Generalized Random Forest algorithm. Our results reveal that the relationship between digitalization and energy use at the firm level is heterogeneous. However, we find that digitalization more frequently increases energy use, mainly driven by a rise in electricity consumption. This increase is lower in energy-intensive industries and higher in markets with low competition. Smaller firms in structurally weak regions show higher energy consumption growth than larger firms in economically stronger regions. Our study contributes to the literature by using a non-parametric method to identify specific firm-level and external characteristics that influence the impact of digital technologies on energy demand, highlighting the need for carefully designed digitalization policies to achieve climate goals.

Do former employees of foreign MNEs boost incumbent workers’ wages in domestic firms?

AbstractThis paper examines whether there are wage spillovers from workers with experience in foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) to incumbent workers in domestic firms. Using administrative panel data from Ireland, I examine possible heterogeneity for such spillovers across the wage distribution using quantile regressions. I begin by using existing methodology and find that, once industry-year and region-year dummies are added as control variables, the average wage spillover effect on incumbents from former foreign MNE workers moving to domestic firms disappears. Quantile regression results suggest that there are positive spillovers for incumbent workers in the top 50% of the wage distribution only. This indicates that foreign MNEs increase inequality through spillovers to domestic firms via labour mobility.

New Evidence on Welfare’s Disincentive for the Youth Using Administrative Panel Data

Abstract We estimate the impact of social assistance on youth employment in Denmark, 2000 to 2006. For childless unmarried individuals, maximum welfare payments increased by 55% at age 25. Using administrative panel data, we find a significant disincentive effect among the low-skilled only, for whom employment fell by 2% to 3% and benefit take-up increased by 10% to 14%. Two-thirds of the effect is attributable to transitions from work to welfare and one-third to reduced labor market entry. Heterogeneous estimates along the earnings distribution show that employment responses are concentrated at very low earnings. We find no evidence of an age discontinuity in criminal activities.

Inherited cultural diversity and wages: surname-based evidence

Abstract This article shows that inherited cultural diversity at the regional level generates a positive wage externality. We use administrative panel data on formally employed individuals in Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil from 2008 to 2013 and apply machine learning to infer the ancestry of workers from their surnames. We distinguish inherited diversity from birthplace diversity and use the plausibly exogenous location of former colonies to build an instrumental variable. The positive wage externality of inherited diversity withstands alternative explanations such as institutional quality, municipality size, human capital externalities, individual productivity differences, and sorting of workers.

The Impact of Weather Shocks on Violent and Property Crimes in Jamaica

Abstract Developing countries face the largest exposure to the negative effects of climate change. However, as temperature and rainfall patterns change, we have a limited understanding of their impact on these countries and the mitigation strategies that may be needed. In this paper, we utilize administrative panel data to examine the impact of weather shocks on violent and property crimes in Jamaica. We find strong evidence that a one-standard-deviation increase in the daily temperature (2○C) increases violent crime by 3.67 percent, due to an increase in the number of murders (3.44 percent), shootings (7.53 percent), and cases of aggravated assault (6 percent). However, our results suggest that temperature changes have no statistical impact on property crime. In addition, we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in rainfall (2 mm) reduces crimes such as shootings (1.53 percent), break-ins (2.27 percent), and larcenies (3.85 percent), but it has a minimal impact on other categories of crime.

Countercyclical Income Risk and Portfolio Choices: Evidence from Sweden

ABSTRACTUsing Swedish administrative panel data, we document that workers facing higher left‐tail income risk when equity markets perform poorly have lower portfolio equity share. In line with theory, the relationship between cyclical skewness and stock holdings increases with the share of human capital in a worker's total wealth and vanishes as workers get closer to retirement. Cyclical skewness also predicts portfolio differences within pairs of identical twins. Our findings show that households hedge against correlated tail risks, an important mechanism in asset pricing and portfolio choice models.

Institution, Major, and Firm-Specific Premia: Evidence from Administrative Data

We examine how a student’s field of degree and institution attended contribute to the labor market outcomes of young graduates. Administrative panel data that combines student transcripts with matched employer-employee records allow us to provide the first decomposition of premia into individual and firm-specific components. We find that both major and institutional premia are more strongly related to the firm-specific component of wages than the individual-specific component of wages. On average, a student’s major is a more important predictor of future wages than the selectivity of the institution attended, but major premia (and their relative ranking) can differ substantially across institutions, suggesting the importance of program-level data for prospective students and their parents.

Intrapreneurial ecosystems in academia and their overlooked outputs: Graduate employability and wellbeing

The aim of this paper is dual: a) to elaborate a systemic concept of intrapreneurship in academia which will be reflective of complexities and idiosyncrasies of the University as a multi-mission multi-function organisation; and b) to empirically test this concept in the context of relatively neglected outputs of academic intrapreneurship such as graduate employability and graduate wellbeing. Guided by an intrapreneurial ecosystem framework, our analysis is based on a combination of administrative and survey panel data for 141 UK higher education institutions. We arrive at several contributing findings. These suggest that the intrapreneurial ecosystem within academia is increasingly predisposed towards enhancing the quality of graduate outcomes rather than simply promoting raw measures such as graduate jobs or the number of graduate start-ups. Furthermore, we reveal the critical role of University national stakeholder networks for graduate career satisfaction, start-up generation, and undergraduate employment. Finally, our empirical exercise and its results demonstrate the practical value of the proposed concept of the intrapreneurial ecosystem for University management and practitioners, not least because it systematically identifies areas for an immediate, medium- and long-term action.

The short-term effects of differential exposure to COVID-19 on educational outcomes in Guatemala

ABSTRACT We study the short-term effects of differential exposure to COVID-19 on educational outcomes in Guatemala. The government adopted a warning index to classify municipalities by cases and infection rates in 2020. Using administrative panel data for all students in Guatemala, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy that leverages municipal differences over time in the warning index to estimate the effects of the pandemic on dropout, promotion, and school switching in 2021 and 2022. Results show that municipalities with a higher warning index had significantly larger dropout, lower promotion rates, and a greater share of students switching from private to public schools.

Environmental regulation, hog scale production and the synergy of pollution control and carbon reduction

<p>The synergy of pollution control and carbon reduction is conducive to promoting the green transformation of the economy. Based on China’s 30 provincial administrative panel data from 2002 to 2020, using the elastic concept to measure the synergy index and the panel fixed effect model to carry out empirical analysis, we analyzed the relation between environmental regulation and the synergy of pollution control and carbon reduction. The results revealed that: (1) Environmental regulation positively influenced the synergy of pollution control and carbon reduction in hog breeding. (2) Different types of pollution and carbon reduction had different synergistic effects. Compared with chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen, the positive effect of environmental regulation on the synergy of total phosphorus and carbon reduction was relatively weaker. (3) From the perspective of impact mechanisms, environmental regulation mainly achieved synergies through the “production constraint effect” and the “innovation compensation effect”. (4) Further analysis showed that environmental regulation had a significant scale threshold effect on the synergy of pollution control and carbon reduction in hog breeding. Therefore, the heterogeneity of pollutants and industrial scale should be considered in the optimization of environmental regulation policies.</p>

Location-Based Tax Incentives for Non-Farm Rural Enterprises in Armenia

The paper analyses the effect of location-based tax incentives on rural non-farm small business performance in Armenia. It uses administrative panel data for the population of the registered taxpayers in the areas concerned, and the vast tax exemptions are granted for businesses operating in the selected set of border communities. Using an ‘event study’-style difference-in-differences fixed effects estimator we initially find a negative effect of tax exemptions on the reported gross income of the affected enterprises and a positive effect on employment, mainly driven by a smaller subset of non-trade firms. To uncover these inconsistent results, we consider a possible channel for decreased reported revenues – changes in audit probabilities for the exempt businesses. Indeed, introducing controls for predicted audit probability eliminates the negative effects on gross revenues, while the positive effect on the number of employees persists, with even increased magnitudes. Gross income under-reporting incentives could emerge in the supply chain where the suppliers might be inclined not to report their sales thus inducing the exempted businesses to under-report their incomes as well. Given the short pre-treatment data, the long-term development common trend of treated and control communities is verified using satellite data on night-time illumination.

Academic mobility in U.S. public schools: Evidence from nearly 3 million students

We use administrative panel data from seven states covering nearly 3 million students to document and explore variation in “academic mobility,” a term we use to describe the extent to which students’ ranks in the distribution of academic performance change during their public schooling careers. We find that student ranks are highly persistent during elementary and secondary education—that is, academic mobility is limited in U.S. schools on the whole. Still, there is non-negligible variation in the degree of upward mobility across some student subgroups as well as individual school districts. On average, districts that exhibit the greatest upward academic mobility serve more socioeconomically advantaged populations and have higher value-added to student achievement.

Does the opening of an emergency department influence hospital admissions? Evidence from French private hospitals

Although operating an emergency department (ED) can influence general admission activity of hospitals, most articles that analyze hospital care ignore the potential spillover of emergency activity. In this paper, we examine the consequences of a French reform that encouraged the creation of EDs within private-for-profit (PFP) hospitals in order to decrease congestion in EDs. We use administrative panel data on 365 French PFP hospitals observed between 2002 and 2012. Specifications including hospital fixed-effects are estimated to examine the impact of an ED opening on private hospitals’ admission activity, namely inpatient and day-care admissions (ED visits are excluded, but patients admitted following an ED visit are included). We control for shocks that can impact demand for care in hospitals, and we estimate yearly changes before and after the opening. We find that an ED opening is followed by an increase in the number and proportion of inpatient admissions, and by an increase in the length of inpatient stays. A transitory increase in the bed occupancy rate is also observed. In many countries, public and private hospitals compete to some extent. The former provide a public service, while the latter are profit-maximizers that are allowed to specialize in profitable activities. They generally focus on day-care admissions. We provide empirical evidence that private hospitals experience a significant change in the composition of their admissions when they start providing emergency care. Opening an ED creates a new non-selective entryway to private hospitals, resulting in admissions of inpatients with health problems that are more severe. Hence, involving PFP hospitals in the provision of emergency care is likely to make the structure of admissions of private hospitals closer to that of public hospitals.

How tuition fees affected student enrollment at higher education institutions: the aftermath of a German quasi-experiment

This study examines the impact of the charging of tuition fees between 2006 and 2014 in several German federal states on the number of first-year student enrollments. Since Germany is known for a tuition-free education policy at public institutions, the fundamental question arises of whether, and if so, to what extent, the temporary tuitions influenced the number of first-year-student enrollments. In this regard, Becker’s human capital theory suggests that rising fees should be associated with declining enrollment rates. The analyses to test the hypothesis are based on a longitudinal administrative panel data set for 206 universities and universities of applied sciences from 2003 to 2018; this means there are 3296 observations before, during, and after the tuition treatment. While no previous study has covered the full period of the policy or undertook more aggregate-level analyses, this study applies an analytical research design that uses several panel-data models and robustness checks to examine causal relations based on a quasi-experimental setting. The results of Fixed effects regressions confirm the hypothesized negative impact and even reveal a persistent negative effect of the treatment. The comparison of higher education institutions with and without tuition fees shows that the former institutions lost approximately between 3.8 and 7 percent of their first-year student enrollments on average.

Household portfolio choice before and after a house purchase

AbstractUsing a unique administrative panel data from Denmark, this article documents the dynamic evolution of households' financial wealth, the equity market participation rate (extensive margin), and the conditional risky asset share of financial wealth (intensive margin) over a 7‐year period around a house purchase. We find that households' equity market participation rate falls during the year of house purchase. Conditional on participation, the risky asset share of financial wealth follows a V‐shape around the house purchase. It decreases and reaches the lowest point 1 year before a house purchase, but jumps up immediately after. This finding suggests that of the three channels identified in the literature that are related to the risky asset demand after a house purchase, the debt retirement channel and the diversification effect dominate the liquidity concern.

Competition and selection in credit markets

Screening in consumer credit markets is often associated with large fixed costs. We present both theory and evidence that, when lenders use fixed-cost technologies to screen borrowers, increased competition may increase rather than decrease interest rates in subprime consumer credit markets. In more competitive markets, lenders have lower market shares, and thus lower incentives to invest in screening. Thus, when markets are competitive, all lenders face a riskier pool of borrowers, which can lead interest rates to be higher. We provide evidence for the model’s predictions in the auto loan market using administrative credit panel data.

The short- and long-run effects of medical malpractice lawsuits on medical spending and hospital operations in China

China is experiencing a surge in medical malpractice lawsuits. Using administrative hospital panel data, this paper investigates both short- and long-run impacts of medical malpractice lawsuits on patient medical spending and hospital operations. We find that after the occurrence of an additional malpractice lawsuit in a hospital, total medical spending per patient visit increases by 2.8% in the current year and by as much as 8.8% in the long run. This increase is mainly driven by spending on prescription drugs and diagnostic tests. In response, hospitals invest more in medical devices and procure more drugs. We find little evidence of changes in patient outcomes. Our findings show that the surge of medical malpractice lawsuits leads to defensive medicine and fuels the secular growth of medical spending in China.

Intra‐EU migration, public transfers and assimilation

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the assimilation of EU migrants via the receipt of public transfers using high‐quality administrative panel data for the Netherlands. Research on this topic has relevant implications for EU expansion policy, migration policy, and perception of migrants in host societies. The data that we employ contain comprehensive information on all public transfers that individuals can receive. Results show that free entry from other EU countries decreases both the share of individuals who receive public transfers and the average amount received. The differences between EU migrants and natives are particularly large during the first years after arrival in the Netherlands, and become indistinguishable from zero after seven years. This indicates a process of gradual assimilation into public transfer receipt. Further exploration using an Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition reveals important composition effects that are due mostly to differences in age and variables related to family structure.

Caste, courts and business

We study the role of formal institutions of contract enforcement in facilitating investments in small and medium firms(MSME). In a framework where established entrepreneurs can enforce contracts informally using their network ties and hierarchical advantage, we argue that an efficient formal judiciary helps entrepreneurs without any ties to informal business networks, disproportionately more. We test our theoretical prediction using a novel administrative panel-data from Indian courts and the nationally representative MSME survey data. Empirically, we treat entrepreneurs from disadvantaged castes (SC-ST) as those without traditional business-network ties. We find that improvement in court quality has a disproportionately larger impact on the investment decisions of SC-ST entrepreneurs. On average, if the time taken for a court to clear all existing cases reduces by 1 year, the initial gap in the probability of investing, between SC-ST and other entrepreneurs, gets reduced by 0.6-0.7 percentage points.