Adjusted Fatality Rate Research Articles

Indirect impact of the war in Ukraine on primary percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in Poland.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 resulted in displacement of approximately 12.5 million refugees to adjacent countries, including Poland, which may have strained health care service delivery. Using the ST‑segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) data, we aimed to evaluate whether the Russian invasion of Ukraine has indirectly impacted delivery of acute cardiovascular care in Poland. We analyzed all adult patients undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) for STEMI across Poland between February 25, 2017 and May 24, 2022. The investigated health care centers were allocated to regions below and over 100 km from the Polish-Ukrainian border. Mixed‑effect generalized linear regression models with random effects per hospital were used to explore the associations between the war in Ukraine and several parameters, and whether these associations differed across the regions below and over 100 km from the border. A total of 90 115 procedures were included in the analysis. The average number of procedures per month was similar to the predicted volume for centers over 100 km from the border, while it was higher than expected (by an estimated median of 15 [interquartile range, 11-19]) for the region below 100 km from the border. There was no difference in adjusted fatality rate or quality of care outcomes for pre- and during‑war time in both regions, with no evidence of a difference‑in‑difference across the regions. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was only a modest and temporary increase in the number of primary PCIs, predominantly in the centers situated within 100 km of the Polish-Ukrainian border, although no significant impact on in‑hospital fatality rate was found.

Application of distributed lag models and spatial analysis for comparing the performance of the COVID-19 control decisions in European countries

Over the past three years, the COVID-19 outbreak has become a major worldwide problem, affecting the health systems and economies of countries. The mean delays, the expected time to observe the average effect of the number of new cases on the number of deaths, are gold times for decision-making regarding disease control and treatment facilities to reduce the fatality rate. The interest of the present study is estimating the mean delays and adjusted fatality rates of COVID-19 with the new application of Distributed Lag Models (DLM) and their spatial distributions. The daily cases and deaths data of COVID-19 for 39 European countries was obtained from two sources; the "European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control" and the "Our World in Data" database. The mean delay and the Adjusted Fatality Rate (AFR) for each country at three-time intervals; the first and subsequent peaks before and after vaccination were estimated by the Distributed Lag Models. The spatial analysis was applied to find the spatial correlation of the mean delays and adjusted fatality rates among European countries. In the three-time intervals, the first and the subsequent peaks before vaccination, and after vaccination, the median and interquartile range of the mean delays; and AFRs were: 1.1 (0.4, 3.2); 0.024 (0.016, 0.044), 9.2 (6.2, 12.40); 0.013 (0.005, 0.020) and 7.3 (4.4, 11.0); 0.001 (0.001, 0.005), respectively. In the subsequent peaks before vaccination, the mean delays considerably increased, and the AFRs decreased for most European countries. After vaccination, the AFRs decreased considerably. Except for the first peak, the spatial correlations of AFRs were not significant among neighboring countries. Consecutive outcomes will occur with delays in outbreaks of infectious disease. Also, the fatality rates for these outcomes should be adjusted on delays. Estimating the mean delays and adjusted fatality rates by Distributed lag Models and the spatial distributions of theme in outbreaks showed that prevention and medical policies after the first peak as well as vaccination were effective to reduce the fatality rate of COVID-19, but these effects were different between countries. These results recommended policymakers and governments assign prevention and medical resources more effectively.

Epidemiología de las enfermedades valvulares aórticas no reumáticas en España, 2003-2018

Introduction and objectivesThe impact of therapeutic improvements in nonrheumatic aortic valve disease (NRAVD) has been assessed at the patient level but not in the whole population with the disease. Our objective was to assess temporal trends in hospitalization rates, treatment and fatality rates in patients with a main or secondary NRAVD diagnosis. MethodsRetrospective analysis of administrative claims from patients hospitalized with a main or secondary NRAVD diagnosis between 2003 and 2018 in Spain. Time trends in age- and sex-standardized hospitalization and procedure rates, baseline characteristics and case fatality rates by diagnosis type were assessed by Poisson regression and joinpoint analysis. ResultsHospital admissions in patients with NRAVD increased from 69 213 in 2003 to 136 185 in 2018. The crude in-hospital fatality rate increased from 6.7% to 8.7% (IRR, 1.015; 95%CI, 1.012-1.018; P <.001) without changes after adjustment. Adjusted fatality rates decreased in patients with a main NRAVD diagnosis (5.5% to 3.5%; IRR, 0.953; 95%CI, 0.942-0.964) but increased in those with a secondary diagnosis (8.0% to 8.8%; IRR, 1.005; 95%CI, 1.002-1.009). Aortic valve replacements increased from 10.5 to 17.1 procedures per 100 000 population (IRR, 1.033; 95%CI, 1.030-1.037), mainly driven by transcatheter procedures (IRR, 1.345; 95%CI, 1.302-1.389). ConclusionsHospitalizations in patients with NRAVD are increasing, with most being secondary diagnoses. The use of aortic valve replacement is increasing with a reduction in fatality rates but only in patients with a main diagnosis.

Time trends in the epidemiology of nonrheumatic aortic valve disease in Spain, 2003-2018

Introduction and objectivesThe impact of therapeutic improvements in nonrheumatic aortic valve disease (NRAVD) has been assessed at the patient level but not in the whole population with the disease. Our objective was to assess temporal trends in hospitalization rates, treatment and fatality rates in patients with a main or secondary NRAVD diagnosis. MethodsRetrospective analysis of administrative claims from patients hospitalized with a main or secondary NRAVD diagnosis between 2003 and 2018 in Spain. Time trends in age- and sex-standardized hospitalization and procedure rates, baseline characteristics and case fatality rates by diagnosis type were assessed by Poisson regression and joinpoint analysis. ResultsHospital admissions in patients with NRAVD increased from 69 213 in 2003 to 136 185 in 2018. The crude in-hospital fatality rate increased from 6.7% to 8.7% (IRR, 1.015; 95%CI, 1.012-1.018; P <.001) without changes after adjustment. Adjusted fatality rates decreased in patients with a main NRAVD diagnosis (5.5% to 3.5%; IRR, 0.953; 95%CI, 0.942-0.964) but increased in those with a secondary diagnosis (8.0% to 8.8%; IRR, 1.005; 95%CI, 1.002-1.009). Aortic valve replacements increased from 10.5 to 17.1 procedures per 100 000 population (IRR, 1.033; 95%CI, 1.030-1.037), mainly driven by transcatheter procedures (IRR, 1.345; 95%CI, 1.302-1.389). ConclusionsHospitalizations in patients with NRAVD are increasing, with most being secondary diagnoses. The use of aortic valve replacement is increasing with a reduction in fatality rates but only in patients with a main diagnosis.

An assessment of the rural-urban differences in the crash response time and county-level crash fatalities in the United States.

This study aimed to estimate the crash response times in rural and urban counties in the United States, their association with county-level crash fatalities, and identify spatial clusters of crash fatalities across the United States. We analyzed data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (2010-2019). Data were aggregated at the county level across the contiguous United States. The selected counties (n = 3,108) were categorized as rural, micropolitan-urban, or metropolitan-urban using the 2013 rural-urban commuting area codes. The predictor variable was crash response time, and the outcome variable was county-level crash fatalities. Crash and county characteristics were used as potential confounders. We performed a spatial negative binomial regression analysis and reported the rate ratios of crash fatalities. We estimated the crude and adjusted fatality rates across all counties and identified clusters of crash fatalities across the United States. As one migrates from urban to rural areas, crash response times became significantly increasingly longer. The Emergency Medical Service (EMS) notification to scene arrival time was most predictive of crash fatalities. A minute increase in the EMS notification to scene arrival time was associated with a 1%, 2%, and 5% increased fatality rate ratio in rural, micropolitan-urban, and metropolitan-urban counties, respectively. Although crash fatalities were lower in rural counties, the crash fatality rate was 3-fold higher in rural counties compared to metropolitan-urban counties. Significant clusters of crash fatality rates were heterogeneously distributed across the United States. Reducing crash response time may contribute to reducing crash fatalities across the United States.

Baricitinib reduces 30-day mortality in older adults with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

BackgroundOlder adults are at the highest risk of severe disease and death due to COVID‐19. Randomized data have shown that baricitinib improves outcomes in these patients, but focused stratified analyses of geriatric cohorts are lacking. Our objective was to analyze the efficacy of baricitinib in older adults with COVID‐19 moderate‐to‐severe pneumonia.MethodsThis is a propensity score [PS]‐matched retrospective cohort study. Patients from the COVID‐AGE and Alba‐Score cohorts, hospitalized for moderate‐to‐severe COVID‐19 pneumonia, were categorized in two age brackets of age <70 years old (86 with baricitinib and 86 PS‐matched controls) or ≥70 years old (78 on baricitinib and 78 PS‐matched controls). Thirty‐day mortality rates were analyzed with Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazard models.ResultsMean age was 79.1 for those ≥70 years and 58.9 for those <70. Exactly 29.6% were female. Treatment with baricitinib resulted in a significant reduction in death from any cause by 48% in patients aged 70 or older, an 18.5% reduction in 30‐day absolute mortality risk (n/N: 16/78 [20.5%] baricitinib, 30/78 [38.5%] in PS‐matched controls, p < 0.001) and a lower 30‐day adjusted fatality rate (HR 0.21; 95% CI 0.09–0.47; p < 0.001). Beneficial effects on mortality were also observed in the age group <70 (8.1% reduction in 30‐day absolute mortality risk; HR 0.14; 95% CI 0.03–0.64; p = 0.011).ConclusionsBaricitinib is associated with an absolute mortality risk reduction of 18.5% in adults older than 70 years hospitalized with COVID‐19 pneumonia.

Prohibition on Changing Workplaces and Fatal Occupational Injuries among Chinese Migrant Workers in South Korea.

We assessed the risk of fatal occupational injuries among migrant workers with two different types of employment permits in South Korea. This observational study used national data from January 2007 to September 2018 and analyzed 42,089 cases of occupationally injured migrant workers of Chinese nationality. Fatality rates were analyzed according to year, sex, age, occupation, industry, and type of employment permit. Chinese workers were permitted to work for one employer and prohibited from changing employers, whereas Korean-Chinese workers were permitted to change their employer. The adjusted fatality rate of occupational injuries of Chinese migrant workers was significantly higher (1.80-fold, 95% confidence interval 1.31–2.46) than that of Korean-Chinese migrant workers. The prohibition on changing workplaces; male sex; age ≥ 45 years; machine operator; construction industry; and agriculture, livestock, and fisheries industry were risk factors for fatal occupational injuries. The results imply a need for revision of the migrant-worker employment permit systems and implementation of occupational safety and health policies for all workers to promote health equity.

Identifying vulnerable populations to death and injuries from residential fires.

This study proposes and evaluates the theory that people who are susceptible to injury in residential fires are not susceptible to death in residential fires and vice versa. It is proposed that the population vulnerable to death in residential fires can be proxied by 'frailty', which is measured as age-gender adjusted fatality rates due to natural causes. This study uses an ecological approach and controls for exposure to estimate the vulnerability of different population groups to death and injury in residential fires. It allows fatalities and injuries to be estimated by different models. Frailty explains fire-related death in adults while not explaining injuries, which is consistent with the idea that deaths and injuries affect disjoint populations. Deaths and injuries in fire are drawn from different populations. People who are susceptible to dying in fires are unlikely to be injured in fires, and the people who are susceptible to injury are unlikely to die in fires.

Comparing bird and bat fatality‐rate estimates among North American wind‐energy projects

AbstractEstimates of bird and bat fatalities are often made at wind‐energy projects to assess impacts by comparing them with other fatality estimates. Many fatality estimates have been made across North America, but they have varied greatly in field and analytical methods, monitoring duration, and in the size and height of the wind turbines monitored for fatalities, and few benefited from scientific peer review. To improve comparability among estimates, I reviewed available reports of fatality monitoring at wind‐energy projects throughout North America, and I applied a common estimator and 3 adjustment factors to data collected from these reports. To adjust fatality estimates for proportions of carcasses not found during routine monitoring, I used national averages from hundreds of carcass placement trials intended to characterize scavenger removal and searcher detection rates, and I relied on patterns of carcass distance from wind turbines to develop an adjustment for variation in maximum search radius around wind turbines mounted on various tower heights. Adjusted fatality rates correlated inversely with wind‐turbine size for all raptors as a group across the United States, and for all birds as a group within the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, California. I estimated 888,000 bat and 573,000 bird fatalities/year (including 83,000 raptor fatalities) at 51,630 megawatt (MW) of installed wind‐energy capacity in the United States in 2012. As wind energy continues to expand, there is urgent need to improve fatality monitoring methods, especially in the implementation of detection trials, which should be more realistically incorporated into routine monitoring. © 2013 The Wildlife Society