Additional Government Spending Research Articles

Public Investments in Domestic Software as a Tool for Accelerating the Economic Development of Russia

Purpose of the study. The state policy aimed at stimulating national economic growth should necessarily be based on justified scientific conclusions and the results of empirical studies. In particular, a relatively new method for accelerating the country’s economic development is state investment in the digitalization of the economy. In this respect, the present study aims to roughly estimate the economic effect of additional public investments in the development of domestic software and databases and the increase in the share of IT specialists in the total employment structure.Materials and methods. The paper used regression analysis methods for panel data based on Rosstat statistics. In particular, the authors applied the econometric fixed effects model.Results. The study demonstrated the higher efficiency of investment in the development of software and databases as compared to the similar efficiency of capital investment in other types of fixed assets. The possible economic effect of additional budget financing for domestic software developers was estimated. The results of calculations clearly demonstrate that additional capital investments in Russian software and databases in the amount from 0.16 to 0.64% of the Russian Federation’s consolidated budget annually (in 2020 prices and in relation to its size for the same period) can accelerate GDP growth in Russia by 0.16-2.44 percentage points per year. At the same time, these calculations hardly make it possible to speak about a strong impact of additional government spending on the increase in the number of people employed in the IT sector. Consequently, it cannot be stated with certainty that it is advisable to further increase the number of state-funded places at Russian universities in IT areas. However, this conclusion is based on panel data, the time interval of which ends in 2020. Taking into account the recent years’ trends can question the relevance of the obtained conclusion.Conclusion. Thus, additional public investment in the digitalization of the national economy and automation of business processes at Russian enterprises is an important tool for accelerating Russia’s economic development. Currently, many domestic enterprises and organizations implement large-scale projects aimed at deepening automation (creating “smart factories”, transferring state-financed institutions’ document flow into an electronic form, introducing artificial intelligence, and many others). Besides, the reduction in the presence of some foreign software manufacturers in Russia makes it relevant to minimize losses associated with the termination of access to foreign software and databases. One of the options for solving this problem is the financial stimulation of developers of their domestic counterparts.

ВПЛИВ УКРАЇНСЬКОЇ МІГРАЦІЇ НА РОЗВИТОК ЕКОНОМІКИ УКРАЇНИ ТА ПОЛЬЩІ

The work is devoted to the study of the impact of migration processes of Ukrainians to Poland on the development of the two countries. Based on the study of scientific sources and the authors' own re-search, the reasons of Ukrainian migration on the Polish vector are summarized in the form of Ishikawa diagram. The reasons for the migration of Ukrainians to Poland are classified by economic, political, social and professional aspects. The current state of migration of Ukrainians to Poland is analyzed using official Polish statistics, sociological research, as well as a survey of Ukrainian migrants conducted by the authors. Two main aspects of migration processes in the Ukrainian-Polish direction are identified: migration with the purpose of employment and education. An annual growth of the number of Ukraini-ans obtaining a work permit in Poland; employment of Ukrainian migrants in various spheres of the Polish economy; rejuvenation of Ukrainian migration; increasing popularity of Polish universities among Ukrainian graduates; increasing share of people who want to integrate into Polish society was detected. The impact of migration processes on the economic development of Ukraine and Poland has been assessed. Both positive and negative consequences for both countries are highlighted. Positive im-pact for Ukraine is an increase in money transfers, reduction of unemployment, return of part of the la-bor force with new knowledge and experience; while positive income for Poland is GDP growth, accel-eration of economic development, filling vacancies, stimulation of consumer demand, reduction of the average market rates of wages, supporting the development of educational institutions. Ukrainian econ-omy is negatively affected in the form of a slowdown in economic development, loss of valuable labor potential, sectoral asymmetries in the labor market, additional government spending on training new professionals, etc.; while in the Polish economy, the probability of unemployment rate growth increases, competition increases between migrants and the local population, who start looking for work in another country, conflicts may arise, etc. Measures aimed at improving the regulation of migration processes to deter emigration and return of migrants, which are consolidated by the areas of change in the country, stimulating business, stimulating workers, are justified.

Sustainable Management of a Mountain Community Vulnerable to Geohazards: A Case Study of Maolin District, Taiwan

This study investigates community-based landslide mitigation planning. The combination of a landslide susceptibility index (LSI) model, landslide inventory datasets, and field work is used to identify hazard-prone areas in Maolin District, Taiwan. Furthermore, to identify the challenges and opportunities affecting the sustainable development of mountain communities, a pilot survey was conducted in three such communities (Dona Village, Wanshan Village, and Maolin Village). The results reveal that there are two types of significant mass movement in such areas: debris avalanche and debris flow. The results also show that the LSI map and multi-temporal landslide inventory datasets correlate with landslide locations. Meander is identified as an important factor in landslide activity. The questionnaire results show that the residents of the study area lack awareness of and access to information related to landslide activity. Similarly, the local residents favor increased environmental protection, working within their community, and additional government spending in regard to managing geohazards. To increase the resilience of the community, an improved landslide susceptibility map is proposed based on the output of the results. Thus, this research improves upon the process of identifying, supporting, and bettering the management of communities prone to landslides.

Australia’s ice crisis and the detrimental mental health effects of recent use

This work applies propensity score matching to assess the impact of methamphetamine on mental health. Using Australian microdata from the 2013 National Drug Strategy Household Survey, Kessler scores of recent and non-recent methamphetamine users are analysed after controlling for confounding variables. The results support the decision to prepare frontline emergency service workers for the psychological issues present in those consuming methamphetamine. The results also highlight the importance for policy makers to develop effective harm reduction programmes. An estimate of the mental health costs associated with methamphetamine abuse is also presented, the findings of which strongly support additional government spending on harm reduction.

Potential for additional government spending on HIV/AIDS in 137 low-income and middle-income countries: an economic modelling study

SummaryBackgroundBetween 2012 and 2016, development assistance for HIV/AIDS decreased by 20·0%; domestic financing is therefore critical to sustaining the response to HIV/AIDS. To understand whether domestic resources could fill the financing gaps created by declines in development assistance, we aimed to track spending on HIV/AIDS and estimated the potential for governments to devote additional domestic funds to HIV/AIDS.MethodsWe extracted 8589 datapoints reporting spending on HIV/AIDS. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate a complete time series of spending by domestic sources (government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket) and spending category (prevention, and care and treatment) from 2000 to 2016 for 137 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Development assistance data for HIV/AIDS were from Financing Global Health 2018, and HIV/AIDS prevalence, incidence, and mortality were from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. We used stochastic frontier analysis to estimate potential additional government spending on HIV/AIDS, which was conditional on the current government health budget and other finance, economic, and contextual factors associated with HIV/AIDS spending. All spending estimates were reported in 2018 US$.FindingsBetween 2000 and 2016, total spending on HIV/AIDS in LMICs increased from $4·0 billion (95% uncertainty interval 2·9–6·0) to $19·9 billion (15·8–26·3), spending on HIV/AIDS prevention increased from $596 million (258 million to 1·3 billion) to $3·0 billion (1·5–5·8), and spending on HIV/AIDS care and treatment increased from $1·1 billion (458·1 million to 2·2 billion) to $7·2 billion (4·3–11·8). Over this time period, the share of resources sourced from development assistance increased from 33·2% (21·3–45·0) to 46·0% (34·2–57·0). Care and treatment spending per year on antiretroviral therapy varied across countries, with an IQR of $284–2915. An additional $12·1 billion (8·4–17·5) globally could be mobilised by governments of LMICs to finance the response to HIV/AIDS. Most of these potential resources are concentrated in ten middle-income countries (Argentina, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, South Africa, and Vietnam).InterpretationSome governments could mobilise more domestic resources to fight HIV/AIDS, which could free up additional development assistance for many countries without this ability, including many low-income, high-prevalence countries. However, a large gap exists between available financing and the funding needed to achieve global HIV/AIDS goals, and sustained and coordinated effort across international and domestic development partners is required to end AIDS by 2030.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Government spending during childhood and intergenerational income mobility in the United States

This study examines the effects of government spending during childhood on the association between income inequality and intergenerational income mobility. I use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 data with state-level measures of income inequality and per-capita total government spending that includes federal, state and local expenditures on education, public welfare, and health care. The 4824 parents-children pairs are used for the analysis. This study provides evidence that additional government spending contributes to promoting intergenerational income mobility. Moreover, government spending moderates the effects of income inequality on intergenerational income mobility. This evidence indicates that government spending plays a role in preventing the decrease in intergenerational income mobility by offsetting the consequences of income inequality.

Export pricing and the macroeconomic effects of US import tariffs

We modify NiGEM in order to study the macroeconomic effects of imposing import tariffs in the US under different assumptions regarding the long-run price setting behaviour of exporters. Overall, the macroeconomic implications in the US resemble the impact of a cost shock or adverse supply shock as prices increase while output declines. Due to exchange rate movements and changes in the prices of traded goods, prices and output in other economies tend to move in the same direction. We demonstrate that the size and persistence of the macroeconomic impact following the introduction of new tariffs critically hinge upon the specific assumptions underlying the behaviour of export prices. If foreign exporters are concerned about their net-of-tariff prices, there will be little adjustment after the initial surge in tariff-inclusive export prices. As a result, the adverse macroeconomic impact will be large and persistent both in the US and abroad. While additional government spending financed by tariff revenues could mitigate the adverse impact on the protectionist economy in the short run, retaliation by its trading partners would worsen the outcome. Our simulations also raise doubts about the ability of protectionist measures to rein in global imbalances.

Growth, deficits and uncertainty: Theoretical aspects and empirical evidence from a panel of 27 countries

We examine the relationship between fiscal deficits and per-capita income growth in a panel of 27 European countries, allowing for perceived risks, in terms of fiscal sustainability, associated with additional government spending. Such risks are proxied by the conditional variability of manufacturing production and stock market returns and by the unconditional variability of two survey-based economic-sentiment indicators. To help clarifying how fiscal variables impact on growth and to provide a point of reference for the interpretation of the empirical results a structural growth model is first identified. We find evidence of an asymmetric relationship, in that fiscal deficits give rise to adverse growth effects if they coincide with high uncertainty regarding the prospects of the economy and no significant negative growth effects in the low-uncertainty case.

Making the Best of Hard Times: How the Nation's Economic Circumstances Shaped the Public's Embrace of Health Care Reform

The U.S. Congress enacted expansive (and expensive) health care reforms amid the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Public acquiescence provided crucial political cover; elites on both sides struggled mightily to sway popular opinion. Were reformers' efforts made easier or more difficult by the tough economic times? Using newly available data on Americans' perceptions of economic insecurity and attitudes toward public policy, this article explores the relationship between economic circumstances and political attitudes. The findings suggest that the Great Recession both facilitated and impeded efforts to rally the public in favor of reform: perceptions of past declines in the U.S. economy bolstered government intervention, but household economic insecurity both distracted attention from large medical expenses (which otherwise legitimized collective action) and undermined Americans' support for additional government spending. Equally consequential, reformers' efforts to adapt to economic stringency by portraying reform as exclusively about affordability missed opportunities for broadening popular support for these interventions; in the longer run this may, unless corrected, prove a decisive misstep in shepherding the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act through its long time line of implementation.

Dollar for Dollar Crowding Out in the Textbook Keynesian Cross Model When the Economy is Below Full Employment

In this paper, it will be demonstrated that a for dollar crowding out of national investment caused by increased government spending is not just something that occurs within classical macroeconomic models. The reason for this is that in a closed economy Keynesian cross model with ignores money, national savings, or Y - C - G, is equal to national investment, or I. Such an equilibrium does not provide the national savings needed to finance a purely fiscal increase in government spending in a closed economy. Any additional government spending would have to occur at the expense of an already low level of capital spending and thus make the government spending multiplier equal to zero.

Does Allocation of Public Spending Matter in Poverty Reduction? Evidence from Thailand*

The present paper uses a panel dataset to estimate the marginal returns to different types of government expenditure on agricultural growth and rural poverty reduction in Thailand. The study finds that additional government spending on agricultural research provides the largest return in terms of agricultural productivity and has the second largest impact on rural poverty reduction. Increased investment in rural electrification has the largest poverty reduction impact, mainly through improved nonfarm employment. Rural education has the third largest impact on both productivity and poverty reduction. Irrigation has a positive impact on agricultural productivity, but regional variation is considerable. Government spending on rural roads has no significant impact on agricultural productivity and its poverty reduction impact ranks last among all investment alternatives considered. Additional investment in the Northeast Region has a greater impact on poverty reduction than in other regions.

Funding Faction or Buying Silence? Grants, Contracts, and Interest Group Lobbying Behavior

During the past decade, numerous congressional bills and amendments have attempted to curtail lobbying by nonprofit organizations that receive federal grants. These policy efforts grow out of an assumption that federal funds are encouraging advocacy at levels that are excessive and encourage additional government spending. Using survey data on more than 700 organizations based in Washington, DC, this article tests this assumption. The data show that for the most part, organizations receiving federal grants and contracts lobby no more frequently than similar organizations that do not receive such benefits. The exception is contacting federal agencies, which charitable organizations receiving federal funds do slightly more often than similar organizations without such funds. A multivariate analysis assesses federal funding together with other variables theorized to affect lobbying—federal tax status, resource levels, and the nature of the lobbying issue—confirming that while these other variables affect lobbying levels, federal funding does not.

Denying Citizens Their Rights? Indigenous People, Mining Payments and Service Provision

Indigenous Australians have a growing capacity to extract monetary payments from mineral development on their traditional lands. Considerable controversy surrounds the possible use of these payments to fund services such as health, housing and education for the Indigenous groups concerned. Critics of such an approach argue that government should provide basic public services to all citizens, and that use of ‘mining payments’ for service provision denies Indigenous people specific compensation for the negative impacts of mining and an important opportunity to enhance their economic status. There is also a danger that government may reduce its existing spending on services, leaving Indigenous people no better off as a result of allowing mining to occur. This article argues that while there are certainly risks involved in using mining payments to fund services, Indigenous groups can generate substantial net benefits by doing so. Mining payments can leverage additional government spending; fund services at a level or of a sort that government will not provide; give Indigenous people greater control over service provision; and help develop Indigenous organisational skills and governance capacity. A strategic approach is required to minimise risk and maximise the available benefits, and the article identifies policy principles that can be applied to secure such an outcome.