Adaptive Hypothesis Research Articles

Humidity or air-speed? A climate chamber investigation into adaptive thermal comfort potential

High indoor humidity is known to impair sweat-induced evaporative cooling in the tropics. However, its role in the established adaptive thermal comfort standards was ignored until the recent development of the field-data derived relative humidity (RH) inclusive adaptive thermal comfort model (ATCRH). The ATCRH model demonstrated the existence of an RH signal in adaptive thermal comfort for the first time by showing low RH is associated with higher comfort temperatures and vice versa. But it is unclear whether these comfort temperatures are due to simultaneous association with high or low air-speed in the field data. The aim of the present study is hence to investigate the potential relationship between ATCRH and air-speed. We utilise a unique well-controlled climate chamber - VSIMULATORS, that can virtually mimic real environments, thus providing a better match to field conditions than historic climate chamber research which was criticised for the artificiality of the study environment. Using a carefully created factorial experimental design protocol to account for order effects and counterbalancing, a series of experiments involving hypothesised pairs of warm-climate ‘adapted’ and ‘un-adapted’ subjects were undertaken. The subjects were exposed to two levels of air-speed (independent variable), 0.2 m/s and 0.8 m/s under low and high humidity associated comfort temperature bounds given in ATCRH. A total of 8832 subjective responses were obtained on standardised scales. Our warm-climate adaptation hypothesis is confirmed through observed discrepancies in the subjective responses in the factorial experiment. Results show that the ATCRH model is found to be comfortable regardless of air-speed at lower humidity levels but is comfortable only with a higher air-speed of ∼0.8 m/s at higher humidity levels. This clearly points to the need for the provision of elevated air-speed, through natural or mechanical ventilation, when using the ATCRH model in highly humid locales. Practical application The applicability of recently developed “Relative Humidity-inclusive Adaptive Thermal Comfort model ATCRH is tested using ‘long-term thermal memory’ of the occupants as a criterion, within a unique climate chamber – VSIMULATORS. Under extreme ATCRH model conditions of 34°C, 70% relative humidity, an elevated air-speed of 0.8 m/s maintains the thermal comfort of occupants at ‘neutral to slightly uncomfortable’, that is 0 to −1 on the ASHRAE’S 7-Point Scale. ATCRH model is found to be practically applicable for energy savings in the tropics. This study also found that prolonged exposure to ATCRH model conditions reduces the thermal comfort of the occupants by 0.54 units on the ASHRAE’s seven-point scale for each progressive hour, which has potential scope for further investigations into adaptive thermal comfort mechanisms.

Phylogenomics resolves key relationships in Rumex and uncovers a dynamic history of independently evolving sex chromosomes

Abstract Sex chromosomes have evolved independently many times across eukaryotes. Despite a considerable body of literature on sex chromosome evolution, the causes and consequences of variation in their formation, degeneration, and turnover remain poorly understood. Chromosomal rearrangements are thought to play an important role in these processes by promoting or extending the suppression of recombination on sex chromosomes. Sex chromosome variation may also contribute to barriers to gene flow, limiting introgression among species. Comparative approaches in groups with sexual system variation can be valuable for understanding these questions. Rumex is a diverse genus of flowering plants harboring significant sexual system and karyotypic variation, including hermaphroditic and dioecious clades with XY (and XYY) sex chromosomes. Previous disagreement in the phylogenetic relationships among key species has rendered the history of sex chromosome evolution uncertain. Resolving this history is important for investigating the interplay of chromosomal rearrangements, introgression, and sex chromosome evolution in the genus. Here, we use new transcriptome assemblies from 11 species representing major clades in the genus, along with a whole-genome assembly generated for a key hermaphroditic species. Using phylogenomic approaches, we find evidence for the independent evolution of sex chromosomes across two major clades, and introgression from unsampled lineages likely predating the formation of sex chromosomes in the genus. Comparative genomic approaches revealed high rates of chromosomal rearrangement, especially in dioecious species, with evidence for a complex origin of the sex chromosomes through multiple chromosomal fusions. However, we found no evidence of elevated rates of fusion on the sex chromosomes in comparison with autosomes, providing no support for an adaptive hypothesis of sex chromosome expansion due to sexually antagonistic selection. Overall, our results highlight a complex history of karyotypic evolution in Rumex, raising questions about the role that chromosomal rearrangements might play in the evolution of large heteromorphic sex chromosomes.

The Acculturation of Pakistanis in Singapore

ABSTRACT This article explores the process of acculturation for Pakistanis in Singapore and their later generation descendants from the country’s colonial period to the present day, focusing on the complexities brought about by migration, colonialism, and nationhood. It analyses how the historical context, namely Singapore’s unique position as a multicultural British colony situated in the Malay peninsula has shaped the experiences of this diaspora community in a variety of ways. Using qualitative research methods and employing cross-cultural psychologist John Berry’s acculturation strategies and multicultural adaptation hypothesis, the article argues that the acculturation process has been facilitated by the sense of cultural and socio-economic security among Pakistani immigrants and their families, amidst evolving political developments and top-down policies during Singapore’s transition from a British colony to an independent nation. The findings of this study will contribute to our understanding of diaspora experiences in multicultural societies and provide insights into the complex dynamics of acculturation in a rapidly changing social context.

Meta-analysis of the acoustic adaptation hypothesis reveals no support for the effect of vegetation structure on acoustic signalling across terrestrial vertebrates.

Acoustic communication plays a prominent role in various ecological and evolutionary processes involving social interactions. The properties of acoustic signals are thought to be influenced not only by the interaction between signaller and receiver but also by the acoustic characteristics of the environment through which the signal is transmitted. This conjecture forms the core of the so-called "acoustic adaptation hypothesis" (AAH), which posits that vegetation structure affects frequency and temporal parameters of acoustic signals emitted by a signaller as a function of their acoustic degradation properties. Specifically, animals in densely vegetated "closed habitats" are expected to produce longer acoustic signals with lower repetition rates and lower frequencies (minimum, mean, maximum, and peak) compared to those inhabiting less-vegetated "open habitats". To date, this hypothesis has received mixed results, with the level of support depending on the taxonomic group and the methodology used. We conducted a systematic literature search of empirical studies testing for an effect of vegetation structure on acoustic signalling and assessed the generality of the AAH using a meta-analytic approach based on 371 effect sizes from 75 studies and 57 taxa encompassing birds, mammals and amphibians. Overall, our results do not provide consistent support for the AAH, neither in within-species comparisons (suggesting no overall phenotypically plastic response of acoustic signalling to vegetation structure) nor in among-species comparisons (suggesting no overall evolutionary response). However, when considering birds only, we found weak support for the AAH in within-species comparisons, which was mainly driven by studies that measured frequency bandwidth, suggesting that this variable may exhibit a phenotypically plastic response to vegetation structure. For among-species comparisons in birds, we also found support for the AAH, but this effect was not significant after excluding comparative studies that did not account for phylogenetic non-independence. Collectively, our synthesis does not support a universal role of vegetation structure in the evolution of acoustic communication. We highlight the need for more empirical work on currently under-studied taxa such as amphibians, mammals, and insects. Furthermore, we propose a framework for future research on the AAH. We specifically advocate for a more detailed and quantitative characterisation of habitats to identify frequencies with the highest detection probability and to determine if frequencies with greater detection distances are preferentially used. Finally, we stress that empirical tests of the AAH should focus on signals that are selected for increased transmission distance.

Empowering Investors: Reducing Herd Bias through Financial Literacy and Self-reflective Thinking

Herd behavior, where investors mimic the trades of others rather than relying on their own information or analysis, is a widespread phenomenon that can lead to suboptimal investment decisions and market inefficiencies. Hence, understanding how to reduce this behavior is crucial for improving individual investment outcomes and sustainable market performance. Though the literature suggests that self-reflection and financial literacy have potential to mitigate herd bias, it is unclear as to how these two perspectives interact to minimize this irrational behavior. By drawing on insights from the adaptive market hypothesis, transformative learning theory, concept of bounded rationality and dual process theory, this study attempts to enhance the understanding of this phenomenon by introducing a conditional mediation model that promotes self-directed learning. It predicts that investors can reduce their herd bias through self-reflection on their past stock trading experiences, which they can practice by engaging intuitive logical thinking and strengthen further through their financial literacy. Since herding is generally predicted to be more prevalent in frontier stock markets, the study was conducted in a frontier market - the Colombo Stock Exchange. The data was obtained through a self-administered questionnaire from 253 active individual investors, and analyzed by applying the PROCESS procedure. The findings reveal the significance of self-reflection as a mediating variable across its antecedents, which provides strong evidence for its central role in reducing herd bias. Notably, the findings indicate that self-reflection has a stronger effect on reducing herd bias of investors with lower level of financial literacy. It implies that investors with low financial literacy are more susceptible to herd bias, and self-reflection facilitates them to recognize and minimize their herd bias. Accordingly, the study concludes that promoting self-reflection can empower individual investors to become more financially literate and thereby mitigate their herd bias.

Male Infanticide in the Northern Purple-Faced Langur (Semnopithecus vetulus Philbricki) in the Kaludiyapukuna Forest Reserve, Sri Lanka.

Infanticide, the killing of conspecific infants, has been observed in many species, including rodents, carnivores, and notably, primates. Although several adaptive and non-adaptive hypotheses have been proposed to explain this phenomenon, most cases to date appear consistent with the sexual selection hypothesis, particularly in primates. According to this hypothesis, males increase their reproductive success by eliminating unrelated unweaned infants, causing females to resume cycling earlier and allowing infanticidal males to mate and sire offspring sooner during their tenure. Here, we document the first confirmed cases of male infanticide in the Northern purple-faced langur, an endangered Sri Lankan colobine living in polygynous groups where outside males challenge resident males for reproductive access, resulting in a "takeover." Following one male takeover, we documented infanticidal attacks on all three infants present, resulting in the wounding and killing of two and the disappearance of the third, all within the first 2 months of the male's tenure. We also describe: (1) changes in group composition following the male replacement, (2) the age and sex of the victims and perpetrator/s; (3) the effect of infant loss on female interbirth interval; (4) infant defense; and (5) mating access to the victim's mothers after the infanticide. We conclude that despite anthropogenic disturbance at some study sites, infanticide within this species appears to align with the sexual selection hypothesis. Nonetheless, genetic analyses on infants killed and born after the takeover are needed to provide conclusive evidence.

Adaptive Significance of Long Mating With Repeated Intromissions in Zygogramma bicolorata

ABSTRACTLong matings are abundant in insects despite the range of the costs involved. The causes and consequences of the evolution of long mating remain an interesting problem for behavioural ecologists. We studied extraordinarily long mating that involves repeated intromissions interspersed with latent periods in the Parthenium beetle (Zygogramma bicolorata). We conducted a series of interrupted mating assays to examine the fitness consequences of different components of this curious mating behaviour. We tested multiple adaptive hypotheses concerning male fertility and competitive ability. We found that sperm transfer and fertility did not exhibit a linear increase with the number of intromissions. There was also no evidence of nutrient transfer by the males. Interestingly, our results showed that both sexes suffered a significant cost of long mating. Further, female remating behaviour was found to be modulated by the length of the previous mating. Additionally, males were observed performing a curious leg rubbing behaviour during the inter‐intromission latent period, putatively serving as a copulatory courtship function that reduced female resistance to the continuance of mating. Therefore, we show that while the long mating may still serve a mate‐guarding role, there are additional fitness effects of such behaviour that need careful consideration. Our study provides insights into the adaptive significance of long mating and its fitness consequences.

The Acoustic adaptation hypothesis does not support the occurrence of common songs in a neotropical urban bird species

ABSTRACT The Acoustic Adaptation Hypothesis indicates that vocalisations will have acoustic characteristics that maximise their transmission within the habitat where they are produced. Therefore, vocalisations of the same species are expected to vary between habitats if the habitats vary in structure. We conducted a sound transmission experiment to analyse if the common songs of the White-eared ground sparrow, Melozone leucotis, an urban bird species, differ between populations because they are adapted to the characteristics of each habitat to maximise their transmission. The experiment was conducted in four isolated populations within the urban areas of Costa Rica with different habitats: secondary forests, coffee plantations, gardens and thickets. In each population, we reproduced the three common songs of each population, and we compared four song degradation measures (excess attenuation, blur ratio, signal-to-noise ratio, and tail-to-signal ratio). Contrary to our expectations, our results contradicted the Acoustic Adaptation Hypothesis, since the common songs of each population did not transmit better in their own habitat, but the songs are adapted to transmit better in the original habitat. We suggest that common songs of this bird may be selected and maintained in each population by female selection.

Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from Sharia Stocks in Asian countries

Research Originality: The adaptive market hypothesis, which is a new way to test capital market performance that reconciles the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) with behavioral finance, is the focus of our research. Our study's novelty lies in testing the efficiency of the Islamic capital market in six Asian countries: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Thailand, over different periods: before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.Research Objectives: We aim to delve into its application in the Islamic capital market, which has seen significant growth in recent years.Research Methods: We employed the variance ratio test, the ARIMA model, and the Elman neural network to test efficiency.Empirical Result: Our findings revealed that the efficiency of sharia indices in these countries was not constant over the three periods, thereby supporting the existence of the adaptive market hypothesis.Implications: The results of this study are not only important for academic discourse but also offer practical applications for investors to refine their investment strategies, engaging the audience in a discussion on Islamic capital market efficiency.JEL Classification: G02, G14, G15

Ontogenetic correlates, not direct adaptation, explain the evolution of stelar morphology.

The primary vascular system of plants (the stele) has attracted interest from paleobotanists, developmental biologists, systematists, and physiologists for nearly two centuries. Ferns, with their diverse stelar morphology, deep evolutionary history, and prominent fossil record, have been a major focus in studies of the stele. To explain the diversity of stelar morphology, past adaptive hypotheses have invoked biomechanics, hydraulics, and drought tolerance as key selection pressures in the evolution of stelar complexity; but, these hypotheses often isolate the stele from a whole-plant developmental context, ignoring potential covariation between vascular patterning and shoot morphology. Furthermore, incongruence between expected patterns and observed data challenge adaptive hypotheses, precluding a comprehensive explanation of stelar evolution. While ontogeny has been previously recognized as a factor in stelar diversification, it has not been fully integrated into a comprehensive framework. Here we synthesize 150-years of research on stelar morphology, incorporating developmental, physiological, and phylogenetic data to present the ontogenetic hypothesis of stelar evolution. This hypothesis posits that stelar morphology is an integrated feature of whole-plant ontogeny, not a trait shaped by direct selection for adaptive patterns. This shift in perspective provides an updated framework for understanding the determinants of stelar morphology and focusses future efforts to ask more incisive questions about the evolution and function of primary vascular architecture.

Circadian fruit phenology: An overlooked crucial aspect of plant‐frugivore interactions

Abstract The intrinsic ability of plants to face environmental diel changes is paramount for flowering and interactions with pollinators and herbivores. Surprisingly, despite the commendable research efforts on the ecology and evolution of fruit‐frugivore interactions, very little is known about how fruit ripening and dropping vary throughout 24‐h cycle. Even less is known about the potential consequences of circadian fruit phenology on plant interactions with mutualistic and antagonistic frugivores. We illustrate for the first time how the circadian pattern of fleshy fruit dropping and its matching/mismatching with the diel activity of functionally diverse frugivores (fruit/seed predators, seed dispersers, pulp feeders) can drive the outcome of complex multispecies plant‐frugivore interactions. To that end, we used camera trapping to quantify the circadian fruit dropping of a mammal‐dispersed tree, Pyrus bourgaeana, and the diel activity patterns of its functionally diverse vertebrate frugivores during two fruiting seasons in two tree populations of Mediterranean Spain. Using a large data set (20,878 frugivore visits and 701 fruit‐dropping records), we evaluate the adaptive hypothesis that the circadian pattern of fruit dropping will match the diel activity of seed dispersers rather than that of fruit/seed predators. Fruit dropping during daytime doubled that at night‐time, being considerably consistent across and within seasons, study sites and individual trees. Specifically, overlaps between circadian patterns of fruit dropping across and within seasons (0.83 and 0.84 ± 0.02, respectively), study sites (0.95) and individual trees (0.68 ± 0.01) were always high. Whereas seed dispersers (mammalian carnivores) were mostly nocturnal, the most frequent fruit/seed predators (cervids) were mostly diurnal. Consequently, and contrary to our expectations, circadian fruit dropping was more aligned with the diel activity of overabundant fruit/seed predators than with that of carnivore seed dispersers. Our study illustrates how quantifying the circadian patterns of fruit dropping, the diel activity of functionally diverse frugivores, and the matching/mismatching between both patterns can contribute to a better understanding of multispecies plant‐frugivore interactions. Circadian fruiting phenology is an overlooked key attribute for most tropical and temperate fruiting plants, which patterns, mechanisms and outcomes must be fully investigated. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

An effective non‐restarting control chart based on the joint judgment

AbstractThe cumulative sum (CUSUM) and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts have been widely used in industry and public health applications. Still, few researchers have paid attention to the practical problem in public health applications, in which the control chart statistic cannot be reset to zero after an out‐of‐control (OC) signal. Some studies have addressed this issue by adding an upper limit to the statistic or using adaptive hypothesis testing (AHT). However, the control chart with an upper limit added to the testing statistic leads to a loss of information, and the post‐outbreak false alarm rate is still higher than the restarting control chart. The AHT control charts could not quickly alarm for the pandemic outbreak alarm as expected. To improve these drawbacks of control chart monitoring, two phase‐II non‐restarting (NR) CUSUM–EWMA control charts with the AHT framework, named NR–CUSUM–EWMA and AHUTNR–CUSUM–EWMA control charts, are proposed to well alarm for the pandemic outbreak. The AHTUNR–CUSUM–EWMA control chart uses the joint judgment of the UNR–CUSUM–EWMA (uncorrected NR–CUMSUM–EWMA) and NR–CUSUM–EWMA control charts, and the run rule to enhance the efficiency of the pandemic outbreak alarm. Simulation results show that the proposed NR–CUSUM–EWMA and AHUTNR–CUSUM–EWMA control charts can well maintain the outbreak alarm rate and post‐outbreak false alarm rate without losing cumulative information. Finally, the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method are illustrated by an application to measles surveillance in North Rhine‐Westphalia, Germany.

Metabolic Compensation Associated With Digestion in Response to the Latitudinal Thermal Environment Across Populations of the Prairie Lizard (Sceloporus consobrinus).

Environmental temperatures directly affect physiological rates in ectotherms by constraining the possible body temperatures they can achieve, with physiological processes slowing as temperatures decrease and accelerating as temperatures increase. As environmental constraints increase, as they do northward along the latitudinal thermal gradient, organisms must adapt to compensate for the slower physiological processes or decreased opportunity time. Evolving faster general metabolic rates is one adaptive response posited by the metabolic cold adaptation (MCA) hypothesis. Here we test the MCA hypothesis by examining metabolism of prairie lizard populations across the latitudinal thermal gradient. Our results show that populations from cooler environments have higher standard metabolic rates (SMRs), but these are explained by associated larger body sizes. However, metabolic rates of fed, postprandial individuals (MRFed) and metabolic energy allocated to digestion (MRΔ) were highest in the population from the coldest environment after accounting for the effect of body size. Our results suggest cold-adapted populations compensate for lower temperatures and shorter activity periods by increasing metabolic rates associated with physiological processes and thus support the MCA hypothesis. When examining energy expenditure, metabolic rates of individuals in a postprandial state (MRFed) may be more ecologically relevant than those in a postabsorptive state (SMR) and give a better picture of energy use in ectotherm populations.

The commensal skin microbiome of amphibian mountain populations and its association with the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis.

Microbial assemblages naturally living on the skin are an integral part of immunity. In amphibians, this skin microbiota may hold a mitigation solution against the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which causes the panzootic disease chytridiomycosis. We used 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding to test the adaptive microbiome hypothesis. We compared the community composition, richness, and putative Bd-inhibitory function of the skin microbiome of three amphibian host species in the Pyrenees, as well as three species in Taiwan, in both Bd-positive and negative mountain populations. In both geographical regions, the amphibian host species played a decisive role in shaping the microbial assemblage and putative anti-Bd properties. In the Pyrenees, the species most susceptible to chytridiomycosis, Alytes obstetricans, had the lowest relative abundances of putative protective bacteria. In Bd-positive and negative sites, individuals had different skin microbiomes, with all anuran species showing increased relative abundances of potential anti-Bd bacteria, while the Taiwanese caudata Hynobius sonani showed the opposite pattern. Our results suggest that, in response to exposure to the pathogen, the skin microbiota shifted to a defensive state with increased anti-Bd function, which may contribute to promoting disease resistance, as proposed by the adaptive microbiome hypothesis.

An explanation for the prevalence of XY over ZW sex determination in species derived from hermaphroditism

The many independent transitions from hermaphroditism to separate sexes (dioecy) in flowering plants and some animal clades must often have involved the emergence of a heterogametic sex-determining locus, the basis of XY and ZW sex determination (i.e., male and female heterogamety). Current estimates indicate that XY sex determination is much more frequent than ZW, but the reasons for this asymmetry are unclear. One proposition is that separate sexes evolve through the invasion of sterility mutations at closely linked loci, in which case XY sex determination evolves if the initial male sterility mutation is fully recessive. Alternatively, dioecy may evolve via the gradual divergence of male and female phenotypes, but the genetic basis of such divergence and its connection to XY and ZW systems remain poorly understood. Using mathematical modeling, we show how dioecy with XY or ZW sex determination can emerge from the joint evolution of resource allocation to male and female function with its genetic architecture. Our model reveals that whether XY or ZW sex determination evolves depends on the trade-off between allocation to male and female function, and on the mating system of the ancestral hermaphrodites, with selection for female specialization or inbreeding avoidance both favoring XY sex determination. Together, our results cast light on an important but poorly understood path from hermaphroditism to dioecy, and provide an adaptive hypothesis for the preponderance of XY systems. Beyond sex and sex determination, our model shows how ecology can influence the way selection shapes the genetic architecture of polymorphic traits.

Impact of Regulatory Changes on Financial Market Stability in Germany

Purpose: The aim of the study was to examine the impact of regulatory changes on financial market stability in Germany. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: The impact of regulatory changes on financial market stability in Germany has been significant, contributing to a more resilient financial system. Stricter regulations, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis, have enhanced risk management practices, increased capital requirements for banks, and improved transparency in financial transactions. These measures have reduced systemic risks and bolstered investor confidence, helping to maintain market stability even during periods of economic uncertainty. However, the increased regulatory burden has also posed challenges for financial institutions, leading to higher compliance costs and adjustments in business strategies to meet new standards. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Theory of financial regulation, adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) & the institutional theory may be used to anchor future studies of the impact of regulatory changes on financial market stability in Germany. Practically, financial institutions and market participants need to adapt to evolving regulatory environments with robust risk management and compliance strategies. Policymakers should ensure that regulatory frameworks are designed to promote financial stability while accommodating the needs of financial institutions.

Evolutionary perspectives on thiamine supplementation of managed Pacific salmonid populations

Thiamine deficiency complex (TDC) has been identified in an ever-expanding list of species and populations. In many documented occurrences of TDC in fishes, juvenile mortality can be high — up to 90% at the population level. Such sweeping demographic losses and concomitant decreases in genetic diversity due to TDC can be prevented by treating pre-spawn females or fertilized eggs with supplemental thiamine. However, some fisheries managers are hesitant to widely apply thiamine treatments due to the potential for unforeseen evolutionary consequences. With these concerns in mind, we first review the existing data regarding genetic adaptation to low-thiamine conditions and provide perspectives on evolution-informed treatment strategies with specific population examples. We also provide practical treatment information, consider the potential logistical constraints of thiamine supplementation, and explore the consequences of deciding against supplementation. Until new evidence bolsters or refutes the genetic adaptation hypothesis, we suggest that TDC mitigation strategies should be designed to support maximum population genetic diversity through thiamine supplementation.

Investigation of Expected Inflation According to Adaptive Expectations Hypothesis Using Koyck Transformation: A Study on Türkiye

Inflation expectations have been researched theoretically and practically for more than a century and continue to be a favorite research topic for economists even today. The validity of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis has not yet been proven by empirical research, and many studies show that it is invalid. This situation drew attention again to the validity of the Adaptive Expectations Hypothesis. In this study, inflation expectations for Türkiye in the 2013m6-2023m7 period, under the assumption of the Adaptive Expectations Hypothesis, were tested first by applying the Nerlove (1958) model and secondly by applying the Koyck transformation within the framework of the Friedman-Cagan model. As a result of the study, although evidence was found that the Adaptive Expectations Hypothesis is valid in Türkiye according to the Nerlove (1958) model, it was observed that there was a weak relationship between actual inflation and expected inflation. The second model was applied to avoid hesitation in accepting the hypothesis. With the Koyck transform model, it has been determined that individuals in Türkiye learn from past inflation values in forming inflation expectations. The speed of this learning is 77%. It was concluded that individuals form their inflation expectations by using 77% of current and past inflation data. The intended history includes the current period, the first and second lags. In terms of expectations, the effect of the third lag is zero.

A Study on Factors Influencing Digital Reading Behavior of Junior High School Students

Abstract The present study aimed to explore the impact pathway of digital reading willingness and behavior among junior high school students in Guangxi’s developed urban areas, so as to improve the digital reading quality of teenagers. This study took students from key junior high schools in Nanning, Guilin, and Liuzhou as the research subjects. The UTAUT model retained three factors, performance expectation, effort expectation, and social impact, while introducing two variables, perceived risk and immersive experience, to jointly develop a factor model for the digital reading behavior of junior high school students in Guangxi. After conducting a questionnaire survey using an “online + offline” method, 497 valid questionnaires were obtained. SPSS 23 was used to perform reliability and validity analysis and descriptive statistical analysis, while AMOS 26.0 was used to conduct discriminant validity analysis, model adaptation analysis, hypothesis testing, and path analysis. The research conclusion was that performance expectations, effort expectations, social impact, and immersive experience all had a positive and significant impact on the digital reading willingness of junior high school students; performance expectations, effort expectations, social impact, and immersive experience positively influenced their digital reading behavior through their digital reading willingness, while perceived risk was found to have no significant impact on digital reading willingness and corresponding behavior. This article used a composite research method to study a sample of student groups in specific regions. It was an early introduction of immersive experience and perceived risk indicators in the study of digital reading behavior, specifically exploring the digital reading patterns of junior high school students who had received less attention in previous studies but were in a critical period of growth.

An Entropic Analysis of Efficiency in the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures Market

For the last 50 years or so, the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has been the central pillar of economic thought and the building block of portfolio theory. However, the validity of the EMH still remains controversial, and the methods of testing for market efficiency have been criticised. This study utilises entropy analysis combined with generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) regressions to provide extensive empirical evidence on informational efficiency. This study develops an innovative method for studying market efficiency by investigating the complexity of information saturated in the market. To this end, we have used daily West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts from June 1983 to February 2016, giving a total data set of 282,427 observations. The results of the Jensen–Shannon informational criteria indicate that the informational efficiency measure has never reached the maximum value of 1 which indicates weak-form efficiency. Our study has further found that the informational efficiency measure tends to decrease consistently during recessionary periods and to increase in subsequent periods. We have also found that the entropy measure tends to increase over time, supporting the adaptive market hypothesis over the EMH.