Adaptation Strategies In Response Research Articles

Investigating the spatially heterogeneous relationships between climate factors and NDVI in China during 1982 to 2013

Climate change is a major driver of vegetation activity, and thus their complex processes become a frontier and difficulty in global change research. To understand this relationship between climate change and vegetation activity, the spatial distribution and dynamic characteristics of the response of NDVI to climate change were investigated by the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model during 1982 to 2013 in China. This model was run based on the combined datasets of satellite vegetation index (NDVI) and climate observation (temperature and moisture) from meteorological stations nationwide. The results showed that the spatial non-stationary relationship between NDVI and surface temperature has appeared in China: the significant negative temperature-vegetation relationship was located in Northeast, Northwest and Southeast China, while the positive correlation was more concentrated from southwest to northeast. By comparing the normalized regression coefficients from GWR model for different climate factors, it presented the regions with moisture dominants for NDVI were in North China and the Tibetan Plateau, and the areas of temperature dominants were distributed in East, Central and Southwest China, where the annual mean maximum temperature accounted for the largest areas. In addition, regression coefficients from GWR model between NDVI dynamics and climate variability indicated that the higher warming rate could result in the weakened vegetation activity through some mechanisms such as enhanced drought, while the moisture variability could mediate the hydrothermal conditions for the variation of vegetation activity. When the increasing rate of photosynthesis exceeded that of respiration, the positive correlation between vegetation dynamics and climate variability was reflected. However, the continuous and dynamic process of vegetation activity response to climate change will be determined by spatially heterogeneous conditions in climate change and vegetation cover. Furthermore, the dynamic description of climate-induced vegetation activity from its rise to decline in different regions is expected to provide a scientific basis for initiating ecosystem-based adaptation strategies in response to global climate change.

The response of root traits to precipitation change of herbaceous species in temperate steppes

Abstract Plasticity of root traits plays an important role in plant growth and survival under changing climate. Shift in precipitation is one of the most pertinent global change factors driving changes in structure and function of grasslands. However, few studies have investigated intraspecific variation of root traits in response to precipitation change under field conditions. We conducted a 10‐year simulated increased precipitation experiment in a temperate grassland and a 700‐km regional scale transect along a precipitation gradient ranging from 144.23 to 412.29 mm in northern China. The morphological, chemical and anatomical traits of the first two‐order roots were determined on 15 common herbaceous species in the manipulation experiment and two regionally common species (Leymus chinensis, Artemisia frigida) along a precipitation gradient. We found that most of the root traits of the herbaceous species exhibited no significant responses to water addition. The two regionally common species adjusted their root traits at sites with the annual precipitation lower than certain value, that is 250 and 160 mm for L. chinensis and A. frigida, respectively. These results indicate that root traits of the herbaceous species exhibit little plasticity in response to precipitation change and that the adjustment of root traits occurs when the range of annual precipitation exceeds a certain threshold. Root traits of L. chinensis and A. frigida varied differently both in manipulation experiment and along the precipitation gradient. Root traits of L. chinensis were relatively constant, while A. frigida adjusted their morphological root traits in response to water addition. Moreover, L. chinensis showed higher specific root length (SRL) and area, and root N contents at sites with annual precipitation lower than c. 250 mm. In contrast, A. frigida displayed thicker roots with lower SRL and area at sites with annual precipitation lower than c. 160 mm. Our results showed that root traits of herbaceous species in temperate grasslands exhibited little plasticity and that different species have evolved diverse adaptive strategies in response to precipitation change. These novel findings provide valuable information to predict responses of temperate grasslands to future climate change.

Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change Trends and Adaptation Strategies in Semiarid Highlands of Eastern Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

This study examined smallholder farmers’ perception about climate change and variability compared with the observed metrological data and their adaptation strategies in response to the perceived impacts of climate change. The multistage sampling method was employed to select 358 rural farmers in Hawzen and Irob districts located in semiarid highlands of Eastern Tigray, northern Ethiopia. Moreover, areal gridded surface monthly rainfall and temperature data between 1983 and 2015 were collected from National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia. The results revealed that about 98.56 and 92 percent of farmers perceived a decrease in annual rainfall. In addition, 87 and 90 percent of farmers noticed that temperature was increased in Hawzen and Irob districts, respectively. Harmoniously, the modified Mann–Kendall trend test confirmed that annual rainfall was decreased by 32.38 mm and 121.33 mm during the period of analysis. Furthermore, mean annual temperature increased statistically significant (p<0.001) by about 0.40°C and 0.39°C per decade during the period of analysis cognate with the farmers’ perception. To reduce the perceived impacts of climate change, farmers adopted various farm-level adaptation strategies that vary significantly between the two groups. Soil and water conservation, planting trees, crop varieties, changing crop calendar, biological conservation, and irrigation were among the dominant adaptation strategies, respectively, in the study area. The results of this study provide baseline information for local governments, subsequent researchers, and policy-makers in terms of farmers’ perception of climate change and adaptation strategies.

Climate Change Migration and Displacement: Learning from Past Relocations in the Pacific

It has been projected that the single greatest impact of environmental changes will be on human migration and displacement. Migration has been extensively discussed and documented as an adaptation strategy in response to environmental changes, and more recently, to climate change. However, forced relocation will lead to the displacement of people, and although much has been written about it, very little has been documented from the Pacific Islands perspective, especially by communities that were forced to relocate as a result of colonialism and those that have been forced to migrate today as a result of climate change impacts. Using the Gilbertese resettlement from the Phoenix Islands to the Solomon Islands, in particular, Wagina Island in the 1960s as a case study of forced relocation and displacement of Pacific Islands people during the colonial period, this paper aims to underline some of the important lessons that can be learned from this historical case to inform the present and future challenges of climate change migration and displacement. Without dismissing migration as a coping strategy, the paper argues that the forced relocation of people from their home islands as a result of climate change will lead to displacement. It accentuates that in the case of Pacific Islands, forced relocation will lead to displacement if they are forced to leave their land because of their deep relationship and attachment to it. The paper also emphasizes the need to acknowledge and honor Pacific Islands’ voices and perceptions in discourses on climate change migration and displacement at national, regional and international forums.

Changes in Reproductive Strategy of an Early Successional Species Penthorum chinense in Response to Nutrient and Moisture Levels

Variation in resource allocation to clonal growth versus sexual reproduction suggests that plants have different adaptive strategies in response to environmental conditions such as nutrient availability and soil moisture. Seeds of P. chinense might play an important role in expanding its established populations. We hypothesize that an early successional perennial plant Penthorum chinense Pursh with many seeds and small rhizomes does not increase its allocation to rhizome propagules and/or decrease its allocation to seeds under sufficient nutrient content or moisture conditions, unlike many other perennials. We performed mesocosm experiments to understand how P. chinense could alter resource allocation to rhizomes and seeds under experimental manipulation of water and nutrient availability. Like many perennials, P. chinense contained more rhizome dry mass and rhizome mass fraction under favorable nutrient content condition than with relatively low nutrient levels. However, P. chinense did not decrease its allocation to seeds under sufficient nutrient condition. It did not change its allocation to rhizome propagules or seeds under high moisture level either, unlike other perennials. These results suggest that both rhizomes and seeds of P. chinense might be important for expanding its established populations.

Quantifying irrigation adaptation strategies in response to stakeholder-driven groundwater management in the US High Plains Aquifer

Irrigation enhances agricultural yields and stabilizes farmer incomes, but overexploitation has depleted groundwater resources around the globe. Strategies to address this sustainability challenge differ widely. Socio-ecological systems research suggests that management of common pool resources like groundwater would benefit from localized approaches that combine self-organization along with active monitoring. In 2012, the US state of Kansas established a Local Enhanced Management Area (LEMA) program, empowering farmers to work with local and state officials to develop five-year, enforceable groundwater conservation programs. Here, we assessed the efficacy of the first LEMA implemented from 2013 to 2017 using a causal impact methodology based on Bayesian structural time series that is new to agrohydrology. Compared to control scenarios, we found that the LEMA reduced water use by 31% over the five-year period, with early indications of stabilizing groundwater levels. Three main conservation strategies can lead to reduced water use: (1) reducing irrigated area, (2) reducing irrigation amount applied to existing crops through improved efficiency, and/or (3) switching to crops that require less water. To partition water savings among these strategies, we combined satellite-derived irrigated areas and crop type maps with well records. We found that farmers were able to largely maintain irrigated area and achieved the majority of pumping reductions (72%) from improvements in irrigation efficiency, followed by expansion of crops with lower water demand (19%). The results of this analysis demonstrate that conservation programs that are irrigator-driven with regulatory oversight can provide a path toward sustainability in stressed aquifers.

Hepatic lipid droplet breakdown through lipolysis during hibernation in Chinese Soft-Shelled Turtle (Pelodiscus sinensis).

Hibernation is an adaptive survival strategy in response to cold and foodless winter. To determine the underlying mechanisms of seasonal adaptions, transcriptome sequencing studies have been conducted in bears, ground squirrels and bats. Despite advances in identifying differentially expressed genes involved in metabolism, the precise mechanisms of these physiological adaptions remain unclear. In the present study, we examined liver of Chinese Soft-Shelled Turtle (Pelodiscus sinensis) and found that the contents of lipid droplet (LD) and triglyceride (TG) were significantly decreased during hibernation. Increases in mRNA expression levels of lipolysis-related genes and decreased levels of lipogenesis-related genes during hibernation indicated that LD hydrolysis was stimulated during hibernation. To continuously release fatty acids (FAs) from LD, adipose triglyceride lipase (ATGL) was recruited and accumulated on the surface of LDs via activation of Cyclic Adenosine monophosphate (cAMP)/protein kinase A (PKA) signaling. Meanwhile, increased phosphorylation of the LD-associated protein, perilipin-5, activated the enzyme activity of ATGL via interaction between comparative gene identification-58 (CGI-58) and ATGL. Taken together, our results indicated that ATGL accumulation on the LD surface and its induced enzyme activity during hibernation promoted LD breakdown in the liver of Chinese Soft-Shelled Turtle (Pelodiscus sinensis), thereby enhancing mitochondrial β-oxidation to maintain energy hemostasis.

Perception of Climate Change and the Adaptation Strategies and Capacities of the Rice Farmers in Kedah, Malaysia

This article attempts to understand the perception of the rice-growing farmers on the issue of climate change (CC) and identify their adaptive capacity (AC). A survey was conducted through structured questionnaires to understand farmers’ perception and adaptation strategies in response to changing climate and variability. The findings indicate that farmers are moderately adaptive to CC in the study area. The result also revealed that the main barriers are lack of funds and government support available information to CC. Farmers with higher AC can produce greater amount of rice. Rice producers should be enabled through improved extension services, government aid, such as grants, training for better level of adaptability, to help them achieve higher rice production.

DEIMS-SDR – A web portal to document research sites and their associated data

Climate change and other drivers are affecting ecosystems around the globe. In order to enable a better understanding of ecosystem functioning and to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to environmental change, a broad range of information, including in-situ observations of both biotic and abiotic parameters, needs to be considered. Access to sufficient and well documented in-situ data from long term observations is therefore one of the key requirements for modelling and assessing the effects of global change on ecosystems. Usually, such data is generated by multiple providers; often not openly available and with improper documentation. In this regard, metadata plays an important role in aiding the findability, accessibility and reusability of data as well as enabling reproducibility of the results leading to management decisions. This metadata needs to include information on the observation location and the research context. For this purpose we developed the Dynamic Ecological Information Management System – Site and Dataset Registry (DEIMS-SDR), a research and monitoring site registry (https://www.deims.org/) that not only makes it possible to describe in-situ observation or experimentation sites, generating persistent, unique and resolvable identifiers for each site, but also to document associated data linked to each site. This article describes the system architecture and illustrates the linkage of contextual information to observational data. The aim of DEIMS-SDR is to be a globally comprehensive site catalogue describing a wide range of sites, providing a wealth of information, including each site's location, ecosystems, facilities, measured parameters and research themes and enabling that standardised information to be openly available.

Climate change adaptation strategies in response to food insecurity: The paradox of improved potato varieties adoption in eastern Ethiopia

The non-avoidable nature of climate change occurrences and their adverse effects on smallholder farmers’ livelihood and food security status calls for urgent interventions. In this study, we used a cross-sectional survey method. Data were collected from 365 sampled households in eastern Ethiopia to identify different climate change adaptation strategies and the associated factors in response to food insecurity. Three-stage probit model was employed for data analysis. Three adaptation strategies, namely: adoption of improved varieties, irrigation usage and intercropping were identified. The study result shows that Shantam, an improved potato variety, is the most widely grown in the study area. Frost, known as wurchi/amadey by its local name, was found to be the worst types of climate change incidence that severely affects potato production in the study area. The analysis of sociodemographic variables showed mixed results on each of the three adaptation strategies. Moreover, the regression revealed paradoxical results whereby irrigation usage and intercropping as climate change adaptation strategies recede the adoption of improved potato varieties.

The First Experience of Treatment of Patients with Primary Mediastinal Lymphoma Using the R-m-NHL-BFM-90/R-EPOCH Protocol

Background: Primary mediastinal lymphoma (PML) is an aggressive, but curable disease. Given the rarity of disease there is no consensus on the most effective program. The most encouraging results with R-DA-EPOCH program (Dunleavy K. et al, 2013) demonstrated high response rate and improved long-term event-free (EFS) and overall survival (OS) without radiotherapy. However, in the real world setting we still face a very difficult treatment decision: on the one hand, due to increasing treatment-related toxicities about 20% of patients (pts) didn't complete the treatment plan, on the other, approximately 10% of patients had disease progression or relapse.Based on our own successful experience of treating aggressive B-cell lymphomas by using the previously published R-m-NHL-BFM-90 protocol, we used a strategy of intensive induction of remission (blocks A, B), followed by de-escalation of therapy with 2 or 4 courses of R-EPOCH depending of interim PET/CT (iPET/CT) results. Here we report the first results of the toxicity and efficacy assessment of the response-adapted program R-m-NHL-BFM-90/R-EPOCH for patients with untreated primary mediastinal lymphoma.Methods: Eleven previously untreated patients (pts) with PML underwent R-m-NHL-BFM-90/R-EPOCH treatment between October 2004 and July 2015 in Federal State Budgetary Organization «National Research Center for Hematology of Russian Federation Ministry of Healthcare»; median age 34 years old (range 24-50); M\\F=2\\9; Ann Arbor stage >I in 11 (100%). All the patients had one or more adverse factors (bulky mediastinal disease>10 cm in 10 pts, soft tissues involvement in 7 pts, breast in 4 pts; elevated lactate dehydrogenase level in 7 pts, pleural effusion in 5 pts). The treatment plan consisted of: (i) pre-phase (dexamethasone and cyclophosphamide); (ii) induction of remission (courses A and B of NHL-BFM-90 program that was modified in the following way: the dose of methotrexate was reduced to 1500mg/m2 (12 h) in course A, doxorubicin in dose 50mg\\m2 was added on the third day of course A); (iii) consolidation with R-EPOCH without dose escalation (2 courses in pts with negative iPET/CT (DS1-3) and 4 courses in pts with positive iPET/CT (DS 4-5)).Results: All the patients completed the treatment plan. Hematologic toxicity grade 3-4 was observed only during the induction therapy, mainly after block A. After the induction with R-m-NHL-BFM-90 8 out of 11 patients (72%) were iPET/CT-negative and received 2 additional courses of R-EPOCH; 3 out of 11 patients (28%) were iPET/CT-positive and received 4 additional courses of R-EPOCH. Only 1 patient's response was assessed as DS4 at the end-of-treatment PET/CT. She received autologous transplantation of hematopoietic stem cells and has now been in complete remission for 12 months. With a median follow-up of 10 months (range 1-29) all the patients are alive in complete remission.Conclusions: Despite a small number of patients and a short follow-up period, our results suggest that the response-adapted strategy of treatment is a reasonable option for PML patients, even in high risk of treatment failure. DisclosuresNo relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

The treatment of older Hodgkin lymphoma patients.

The outcome of patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) has dramatically improved over the past decades and continues to improve with the development of novel targeted therapies, such as the immunoconjugate brentuximab vedotin and the checkpoint inhibitors nivolumab and pembrolizumab. Moreover, with the use of response-adapted strategies using positron-emission-tomography (PET), the overall intensity of treatment for most patients can be reduced, resulting in less acute and late toxicity. However, these advances are mainly restricted to younger patients, as advances in patients above the age of 60years ('older' patients) have been much less pronounced. Furthermore, about one third of all HL patients are among the older population, but only 5-10% of the patients treated in current HL clinical trials are ≥60years old. HL in older patients is characterized by aggressive disease and unfavourable prognostic features as B symptoms and predominance of advanced stages. In addition, tolerance to curative chemotherapy is drastically reduced in older patients resulting in excessive toxicity and insufficient treatment due to therapy delays and dose reductions. Therefore, there is a significant unmet medical need in older HL patients for less toxic and effective therapies, and an important gap of knowledge concerning this growing population of patients. Recent advances on epidemiology, characteristics and treatment of older HL patients will be summarized in this article.

Lipid deposition pattern and adaptive strategy in response to dietary fat in Chinese perch (Siniperca chuatsi)

BackgroundPrevious studies in teleost have demonstrated the adaptive strategy to maintain hepatic lipid homeostasis within certain limit. The excess of fat-intake could induce abnormal lipid deposition in liver but not adipose tissue. However, the molecular mechanism between the impaired lipid homeostasis and the aggravated lipid deposition in liver has not been elucidated well in fish.MethodsFour isonitrogenous diets with different fat levels (2, 7, 12 and 17%) were formulated, named L2, L7, L12 and L17 respectively, and fed Chinese perch (44.50 ± 0.25 g) to apparent satiation for five weeks. Growth index, triglyceride concentrations and expression of genes involved in lipid metabolism were measured.ResultsThe maximal growth performance and food intake were observed in L12 group. The lipid content in liver and serum were comparable in L2, L7 and L12 groups, while they were increased significantly in L17 group. Histology analysis also demonstrated that mass lipid droplets emerged in hepatocyte and then induced hepatic steatosis in L17 group. Compared to L2 group, the lipolytic genes related to fatty acids (FAs) transport (lpl & hl) and FAs β-oxidation (cpt1 & cs) were increased in L7 and L12 group. Relative mRNA levels of the gluconeogenesis (pc, pepck & g6pase) were also increased, in contrast, the lipogenic genes (srebp1, accα & fas) were decreased. Compared to L12 group, L17 group had higher mRNA levels of the FAs transport and the lipogenesis. But the lipolytic genes related to FAs β-oxidation were steady and the mRNA levels of gluconeogenesis were down-regulated instead.ConclusionsWithin certain limit, the increase of dietary fat in L7 and L12 group was propitious to reduce the consumption of protein and improve growth performance in Chinese perch. It was due to the homeostasis of hepatic triglyceride (TG) pool and serum glucose through promoting the FAs β-oxidation and gluconeogenesis respectively. Both the increase of lipogenesis and the absence of FAs β-oxidation in L17 group could trigger the esterification of FAs, indeed, the inhibition of gluconeogenesis could also aggravate triglyceride accumulation in liver and induce hepatic steatosis.

Rationalizing Systems Analysis for the Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies in Complex Human‐Water Systems

AbstractWater resources management is a nontrivial process requiring a holistic understanding of the factors driving the dynamics of human‐water systems. Policy‐induced or autonomous behavioral changes in human systems may affect water and land management, which may affect water systems and feedback to human systems, further impacting water and land management. Currently, hydro‐economic models lack the ability to describe such dynamics either because they do not account for the multifactor/multioutput nature of these systems and/or are not designed to operate at a river basin scale. This paper presents a flexible and replicable methodological framework for integrating a microeconomic multifactor/multioutput Positive Multi‐Attribute Utility Programming (PMAUP) model with an eco‐hydrologic model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The connection between the models occurs in a sequential modular approach through a common spatial unit, the “hydrologic‐economic representative units” (HERUs), derived from the boundaries of decision‐making entities and hydrologic responsive units. The resulting SWAT‐PMAUP model aims to provide the means for exploring the dynamics between the behavior of socio‐economic agents and their connection with the water system through water and land management. The integrated model is illustrated by simulating the impacts of irrigation restriction policies on the Río Mundo subbasin in south‐eastern Spain. The results suggest that agents' adaptation strategies in response to the irrigation restrictions have broad economic impacts and subsequent consequences on surface and groundwater hydrology. We suggest that the integrated modeling framework can be a valuable tool to support decision‐making in water resources management across a wide range of scales.

Recent prey capture experience and dynamic habitat quality mediate short-term foraging site fidelity in a seabird.

Foraging site fidelity allows animals to increase their efficiency by returning to profitable feeding areas. However, the mechanisms underpinning why animals 'stay' or 'switch' sites have rarely been investigated. Here, we explore how habitat quality and prior prey capture experience influence short-term site fidelity by the little penguin (Eudyptula minor). Using 88 consecutive foraging trips by 20 brooding penguins, we found that site fidelity was higher after foraging trips where environmental conditions were favourable, and after trips where prey capture success was high. When penguins exhibited lower site fidelity, the number of prey captures relative to the previous trip increased, suggesting that switches in foraging location were an adaptive strategy in response to low prey capture rates. Penguins foraged closer to where other penguins foraged on the same day than they did to the location of their own previous foraging site, and caught more prey when they foraged close together. This suggests that penguins aggregated flexibly when prey was abundant and accessible. Our results illustrate how foraging predators can integrate information about prior experience with contemporary information such as social cues. This gives insight into how animals combine information adaptively to exploit changing prey distribution in a dynamic environment.

Effects of constant and stage-specific-alternating temperature on the survival, development and reproduction of the oriental armyworm, Mythimna separata (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Migratory insects make diverse adaptive strategies in response to changes in external environment. Temperature has an impact on the survival, development, reproduction, and migration initiation of insects. Previous research has primarily been focused on the effects of constant temperature on populations, but changing temperature has received less attention. Three constant temperature treatments (20, 25 and 30°C) and three pupal-alternating temperature treatments (20–25, 25–20 and 25–30°C) were set up to study the relationship between temperature and population development by age-stage, two-sex life table analysis in the oriental armyworm, Mythimna separata Walker, a notorious migratory pest in grain crops. The 25°C treatment was considered optimal with 20 and 30°C as low suitable temperature and high temperatures, respectively. The survival rate was relatively low before third instar larvae at 20°C (63.0%) and 20–25°C (70.1%), and extreme low after pupal stage at 30°C (20.6%). Developmental duration of each stage was negatively correlated with temperature. The adult pre-oviposition period, when most migratory insects initiate migration, was the shortest at 25°C (2.69 d) but was lengthened at both low suitable (7.48 d for 20°C, 6.91 d for 25–20°C and 4.57 d for 20–25°C) and high temperatures (3.74 d for 25–30°C and 5.00 d for 30°C). Both low suitable and high temperature decreased lifetime fecundity, net reproductive rate and the intrinsic rate of increase, with variability observed across developmental duration and stage during non-optimal temperature. The results expand knowledge of the relationship between changing temperature and armyworm population development, and adaptive strategies in complex ambient environment.

Accelerated diversification and functional trait evolution in Velloziaceae reveal new insights into the origins of the campos rupestres' exceptional floristic richness.

The greater diversity of plant clades in the Neotropics compared to their relatives in Africa is a pervasive pattern in biogeography. To better understand the causes of this imbalance, we studied the diversification dynamics of the monocot family Velloziaceae. In addition to being conspicuously richer in the Neotropics compared to the Palaeotropics, many species of Velloziaceae exhibit extreme desiccation tolerance (i.e. 'resurrection' behaviour), and other ecological specializations to life on rocky outcrops, poor sandy soils, open vegetation and seasonally dry climates. Velloziaceae is also ecologically dominant in the campos rupestres, a habitat having exceptionally high plant diversity and endemism in Brazil. We reconstructed a densely sampled time-calibrated molecular phylogeny and used state-dependent and state-independent models to estimate rates of lineage diversification in relation to continent-scale geographical occurrence and functional traits associated with desiccation tolerance and water storage capacity. Independent shifts to faster diversification occurred within two Neotropical lineages, Vellozia and Barbacenia. The Vellozia radiation was associated with the presence of conspicuous aerial stems, and was followed by decreasing diversification rates during the Oligocene, a time of rising global temperatures and expanding open areas around the world. The Barbacenia radiation was faster and more recent, occurring during the cooling conditions of the Miocene, and associated with the acquisition of aquiferous parenchyma on the leaves. High species richness of Velloziaceae in South America has been driven by faster diversification in lineages predominantly occurring in the campos rupestres, putatively by the evolution of adaptive strategies in response to independent climatic events. The radiation of Vellozia in particular might have played a key role in the assembly of the campos rupestres vegetation.

Quantifying the health effects of climate change upon pollen allergy: a combined cohort and modelling study

BackgroundGlobally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental knowledge gap exists on the effect of climate change on pollen allergies. The annual herbaceous plant common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is highly invasive; it thrives on disturbed land, with each plant producing up to 62 000 seeds per year. Ragweed is particularly harmful for public health because each plant produces up to 1 billion grains per year. Our study aims to quantify the consequences of climate change on pollen allergy in people in Europe. MethodsWe used a process-based model to estimate the change in the distribution of ragweed plants across Europe under climate change. A second model simulated plant invasion, pollen production, pollen release, and the atmospheric distribution of pollen to estimate current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into two different measures of health burden: pollen sensitisation rates and changes in allergy symptoms. Changes in pollen sensitisation rates were estimated using a dose–response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data across Europe (baseline 1986–2005, future 2041–60). Changes in allergy symptoms were modelled by obtaining dose-response relationships between pollen and symptoms from a cohort of 85 sensitised individuals in Croatia. These relationships were then applied to future pollen loads, which considered two different regional climate and pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4·5 and 8·5), and three different plant invasion scenarios. A second set of health effects (sensitisation rates and allergy symptoms) were obtained from future pollen models. FindingsWe estimated that sensitisation to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from a baseline estimate of 33 million people (1986–2005) to 77 million by 2041–60. According to our projections, sensitisation will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (eg, by 27% in Hungary, 26% in Croatia, and 21% in Serbia), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitisation is uncommon (an increase of 235% in Germany, 292% in Poland, and 231% in France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season might also increase the severity of symptoms. InterpretationOur quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread might be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. FundingThis project was supported by the European Community Framework programme 7, Atopica.

Abstract OT1-03-01: Chemotherapy-free trastuzumab and pertuzumab in HER2 [+] breast cancer: FDG-PET response-adapted strategy. The PHERGain study

Abstract BACKGROUND: Several studies have confirmed that a significant subset of patients (pts) with early stage HER2[+]breast cancer (BC) achieve pathological complete response (pCR) with a dual HER2 neoadjuvant blockade without chemotherapy (chemo). Early metabolic evaluation using 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) might help to recognize those pts with a higher likelihood of obtaining a pCR and an excellent outcome with a chemo-free strategy. TRIAL DESIGN: This is a randomized, multicenter, non-comparative phase II trial. Pts age ≥ 18 years with centrally-confirmed, treatment-naïve, HER2 [+] operable BC will be randomized, in a 1:4 ratio, and stratified by HR status, to receive docetaxel, carboplatin, trastuzumab, and pertuzumab (TCHP) (cohort A), or trastuzumab and pertuzumab (HP) ± endocrine therapy (ET) according to HR status (cohort B). Centrally-reviewed 18F-FDG PET/CT scans will be performed prior to randomization and after 2 cycles of therapy. Pts allocated into cohort A will continue with the same therapy for a total of 6 cycles regardless of 18F-FDG PET/CT results. Pts enrolled into cohort B showing at least a 40% reduction of the SUVmax on 18F-FDG PET/CT respect to baseline (PET responders) will continue with the same therapy for a total of 8 cycles. PET non-responders pts will receive 6 cycles of TCHP. After surgery, cohort B/PET responders pts who do not achieve a pCR will receive 6 cycles of TCHP. Moreover, all pts from cohorts A/B must complete 18 cycles of HP, along with adjuvant ET and radiotherapy (RT) according to HR status and institutional practices, respectively. Pts with subclinic metastases will be assigned to cohort C to receive 6 cycles of TCHP. Surgery and RT will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis on cohort C, and all pts will continue with HP for at least 12 additional cycles ± ET according to HR status. The first co-primary endpoint is to evaluate the rate of pCR defined as the absence of invasive disease in the breast and axilla (ypT0/isN0) achieved with HP ± ET in PET responders pts (cohort B/PET responders).The second co-primary endpoint is to evaluate 3-year (3-y) invasive disease-free survival (iDFS) rate defined as time from the first date of no disease to invasive recurrence, new invasive disease, or death by any cause in cohort B. Total accrual will be 400 pts. Considering a 10% and 25% of drop-out rates at the time of first and second co-primary analysis, the study will be positive if ≥41 pts achieved a pCR in cohort B/PET responders; or if we observe ≤14 events of 3-y iDFS in cohort B. Decisions will be based on one-sided, exact binomial test. With a 2.5% type I error rate (H0: pCR ≤20% and 3-y iDFS ≤89%) and 80% power (HA: pCR ≥30% and 3-y iDFS ≥95%). The secondary objectives are to evaluate other definitions of pCR, rates of breast-conserving surgery, tumor response by magnetic resonance imaging, optimal 18F-FDG PET cut-off for pCR and other 18F-FDG PET quantification parameters for pCR prediction, DFS, distant-DFS, overall survival, progression-free survival, and health-related quality of life. Translational sub-studies will analyze biomarkers that may be predictive of response to dual HER2 blockade with HP. Citation Format: Llombart-Cussac A, Curigliano G, Gebhart G, Gligorov J, Khaldoun K, Marmé F, Prat A, Schmid P, Cortes J, Perez J. Chemotherapy-free trastuzumab and pertuzumab in HER2 [+] breast cancer: FDG-PET response-adapted strategy. The PHERGain study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr OT1-03-01.

Interim PET Response-adapted Strategy in Untreated Advanced Stage Hodgkin Lymphoma: Results of GOELAMS LH 2007 Phase 2 Multicentric Trial

BackgroundPatients with advanced stage Hodgkin lymphoma still present unsatisfactory outcomes. Patients and MethodsThe Groupe d’étude des Leucémies Aigues et des Maladies du Sang (GOELAMS) group conducted a prospective multicentric trial (NCT00920153) for advanced stage Hodgkin lymphoma to evaluate a positron emission tomography (PET)-adapted strategy. Patients received an intensive regimen (VABEM [vindesine, doxorubicin, carmustine, etoposide, and methylprednisolone]) in front-line and interim 18FFDG-PET evaluation after 2 courses (PET-2). Patients with negative PET-2 findings received 1 additional course. Patients with positive PET-2 findings underwent early salvage therapy followed by high-dose therapy/autologous stem cell transplantation. ResultsFifty-one patients were included. The final complete remission rate was 88%. With a median follow up of 5.3 years, 5-year event-free survival and overall survival rates were 75.3% and 85.3%, respectively, for the whole cohort. Patients who were PET–2-negative had 5-year event-free survival and overall survival rates of, respectively, 77.8% and 88.2% versus 85.1% and 91.7% for patients who were PET–2-positive. ConclusionA PET-guided strategy with early salvage therapy and high-dose therapy/autologous stem cell transplantation for patients with interim PET–2-positive findings is safe and feasible and provide similar outcome as patients with a negative PET-2.