Acute Coronary Events Risk Score Research Articles

Age-associated declined function of endothelial progenitor cells and its correlation with plasma IL-18 or IL-23 concentrations in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

BackgroundST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) persists to be prevalent in the elderly with a dismal prognosis. The capacity of endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) is reduced with aging. Nevertheless, the influence of aging on the functionality of EPCs in STEMI is not fully understood.MethodThis study enrolled 20 younger STEMI patients and 21 older STEMI patients. We assessed the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events Risk (GRACE) scores in two groups. Then, we detected EPC migration, proliferation, adhesion, and plasma interleukin (IL)-18 and IL-23 concentrations in two groups. In addition, we analyzed the interconnection between age, EPC function, plasma IL-18 and IL-23 concentrations, and GRACE or TIMI scores in STEMI patients.ResultGRACE and TIMI scores in older STEMI patients were higher than in younger STEMI patients, whereas EPC function declined. GRACE and TIMI scores were found to have an inverse relationship with the EPC function. In older STEMI patients, plasma concentrations of IL-18 and IL-23 increased. Plasma IL-18 and IL-23 concentrations were adversely connected to EPC capacity and positively related to GRACE and TIMI scores. Moreover, age was positively correlated with plasma IL-18 or IL-23 concentrations, as well as GRACE or TIMI scores. However, age was adversely correlated with EPC function.ConclusionIn patients with STEMI, aging results in declined EPC function, which may be associated with inflammatory cytokines. The current investigation may offer new perception about mechanism and therapeutic targets of aging STEMI.

Long-term all-cause death prediction by coronary, aortic, and valvular calcification in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

To determine the prognostic value of cumulative calcification score of coronary artery calcification (CAC), thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) and aortic valve calcification (AVC) in acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. This was a retrospective, single-center cohort study. A total of 332 STEMI patients who received primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) were enrolled in this study between January 2010 to October 2018. We assessed the calcification in the left anterior descending branch (LAD), left circumflex branch (LCX), right coronary artery (RCA), thoracic aorta, and aortic valve. Calcification of each part was counted as 1 point, and the cumulative calcification score was calculated as the sum of all points. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine association of cumulative calcification score with end points. The performance of the score was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and absolute net reclassification improvement (NRI), compared with the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score. The overall population's calcification score was 2.0 ± 1.6. During a mean follow-up time of 69.8 ± 29.3 months, the all-cause mortality rate was 12.1%. Kaplan-Meier curve showed that the score was significantly associated with mortality (log-rank p < 0.001). The multivariable Cox proportional hazard analyses showed that a calcification score of 4-5 was independently associated with all-cause death in STEMI patients [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.32, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-5.31, p = 0.046]. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the calcification score was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.61-0.72), and the AUC of the GRACE score was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75-0.84). There was no statistical difference in the predictive value between both scores for 3-year mortality in STEMI patients after PPCI (p = 0.06). Based on the NRI analysis, the calcification score showed better risk classification compared with the GRACE score (absolute NRI = 6.63%, P = 0.027). The cumulative calcification score is independently associated with the long-term prognosis of STEMI patients after PPCI.

Machine learning for predicting intrahospital mortality in ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

In an era of increasing need for precision medicine, machine learning has shown promise in making accurate acute myocardial infarction outcome predictions. The accurate assessment of high-risk patients is a crucial component of clinical practice. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) complicates ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), and currently, there is no practical method for predicting or monitoring patient prognosis. The objective of the study was to compare the ability of machine learning models to predict in-hospital mortality among STEMI patients with T2DM. We compared six machine learning models, including random forest (RF), CatBoost classifier (CatBoost), naive Bayes (NB), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), gradient boosting classifier (GBC), and logistic regression (LR), with the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score. From January 2016 to January 2020, we enrolled patients aged > 18 years with STEMI and T2DM at the Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University. Overall, 438 patients were enrolled in the study [median age, 62 years; male, 312 (71%); death, 42 (9.5%]). All patients underwent emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and 306 patients with STEMI who underwent PCI were enrolled as the training cohort. Six machine learning algorithms were used to establish the best-fit risk model. An additional 132 patients were recruited as a test cohort to validate the model. The ability of the GRACE score and six algorithm models to predict in-hospital mortality was evaluated. Seven models, including the GRACE risk model, showed an area under the curve (AUC) between 0.73 and 0.91. Among all models, with an accuracy of 0.93, AUC of 0.92, precision of 0.79, and F1 value of 0.57, the CatBoost model demonstrated the best predictive performance. A machine learning algorithm, such as the CatBoost model, may prove clinically beneficial and assist clinicians in tailoring precise management of STEMI patients and predicting in-hospital mortality complicated by T2DM.

Adding the value of the Charlson Comorbidity Index to the GRACE score for mortality prediction in acute coronary syndromes.

Scarce and conflicting data still exist about the role of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) when added to the traditional Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score for outcome prediction in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). All consecutive admissions due to ACS, from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2020 were retrospectively reviewed from an internal database of a tertiary cardiac center in Salerno (Italy). Logistic and Cox proportional regression analyses were performed in order to assess the contribution of the CCI on 30-day and long-term mortality. The CCI adding value to the GRACE score was analyzed with several measures of improvement in discrimination: increase in the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and the categorical and continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI) more than 0. Robustness of the results was assessed through an internal validation procedure with bootstrapping. One thousand three hundred and ten patients were identified. The median age was 68 (58-78) years. One hundred and twenty (9.2%) and 113 (9.5%) deaths occurred, respectively, during the first 30 days from admission and during long-term follow-up (median follow-up time: 13 months; interquartile range: 9-24). After multivariate regression analysis, the CCI was not associated with short-term mortality, while it was significantly and independently associated with long-term mortality along with the GRACE score (hazard ratio: 1.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.22-1.47; P < 0.001). An additive effect of CCI with the GRACE risk score was observed in predicting long-term mortality: AUC from 0.768 to 0.819 ( P = 0.003), category-based NRI: 0.215, cNRI>0: 0.669 ( P < 0.001), IDI: 0.066 ( P < 0.001). The CCI is a predictor of long-term mortality and improves risk stratification of patients with ACS over the GRACE risk score.

Outcomes of early versus delayed invasive strategy in dialysis patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome

Abstract Background The association of early invasive strategy with improved outcomes in patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) was previously established, particularly those at high risk. This benefit has not been evaluated in dialysis patients presenting with NSTE-ACS. Purpose This study aimed to investigate the prognostic impact of early invasive strategy in maintenance dialysis patients with NSTE-ACS. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of 455 617 consecutive cardiac catheterizations performed at 30 cardiac centers in China between January 2015 and June 2021. Patients were excluded if they did not receive dialysis therapy or received dialysis for less than 3 months, had normal coronary anatomy, or were admitted repeatedly . Patients were dichotomized into two groups based on the time interval from admission to invasive assessment: early (within 24 hours) invasive and delayed (more than 24 hours) invasive groups. The primary outcome of interest was all-cause mortality during follow-up. Standard univariate and survival methods were used. Propensity score matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting were used to diminish baseline differences. Results Overall, 1 012 patients met the final criteria, with a mean age of 61.7±10.4 years, and 398 (39.3%) of them received early invasive treatment. After a median follow-up of 21.8 months (interquartile range 12.6-34.9 months), 334 (33.0%) deaths were identified. Similar all-cause mortality rate was observed in the early invasive group compared with delayed invasive group (33.9% vs. 31.7%, respectively). After adjusting for baseline risk factors, early invasive was not associated with reduced all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.69-1.08, p=0.198). Similar results were identified in the propensity score matching cohort and inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting cohort. Furthermore, no significant interaction was observed between the timing of invasive assessment and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score (≤140 vs.&amp;gt;140) on the risk of all-cause death (p for interaction =0.858). Conclusion This multicenter study demonstrated comparable all-cause mortality between early invasive and delayed invasive groups in dialysis patients with NSTE-ACS. These findings were inconsistent with previous studies on NSTE-ACS patients with normal renal function, and further prospective studies are needed to confirm.

The importance of evaluation for living alone among acute myocardial infarction patients

Abstract Background Assessment of the mortality risk in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients is crucial when making medical decisions because AMI is an important public health issue and a major cause of death worldwide. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score is useful for estimating in-hospital mortality at the time of admission and is in wide use. On the other hand, in the rapidly aging societies of the modern era, social isolation and absence of support are important welfare issues. Among them, living alone as a proxy for social isolation has been considered to increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between living alone and cardiac deaths in AMI patients after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and to determine whether this association was independent of GRACE risk score as a score that is widely used in clinical settings. Methods This study was a retrospective cohort study, investigating 277 consecutive AMI patients who underwent successful revascularization of the culprit lesion by primary PCI. Associations between cardiac deaths after PCI and baseline characteristics including living alone and GRACE risk score were assessed. Furthermore, this study also assessed nutritional status using the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI). Results Median duration of follow-up was 1153 days (IQR, 560–1566 days). In this population, median age was 69 years (IQR, 59–77 years), and 198 patients (71%) were male. Eighty-three patients (30%) were living alone. Thirty patients died after PCI, including 20 cardiac deaths. Patients living alone showed higher incidences of cardiac deaths compared with patients not living alone (14% vs. 4%, p=0.004). The proportion of males differed significantly between living alone and not living alone groups (p=0.004). GNRI was significantly lower in the living alone group than in the not living alone group (p&amp;lt;0.001 and p=0.048). GRACE risk score was significantly higher in the living alone group (median, 140; IQR, 107–170) than in the not living alone group (median, 127; IQR, 103–149; p=0.038). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis models showed living alone (hazard ratio [HR], 4.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.60–10.84; p=0.003), GNRI (HR, 0.94; 95%CI, 0.91-0.98; p=0.003), and GRACE risk score (HR, 1.03; 95%CI, 1.01-1.04; p&amp;lt;0.001) were significantly associated with cardiac death after PCI. A comparison of p values for the interaction of GRACE risk score and either living alone and GNRI were p=0.082 and p=0.244, respectively. Conclusions The current study revealed that living alone represents an independent risk factor for cardiac deaths in AMI patients after PCI, separate from GRACE risk score. Evaluation of living arrangements may provide more information regarding prognosis for AMI patients.

Circulating dipeptidyl peptidase 3 predicts hemodynamic impairment and premature death in acute coronary syndromes: insights from the prospective multicenter SPUM-ACS study

Abstract Background Dipeptidyl peptidase 3 (DPP3) is mechanistically involved in the degradation of angiotensin II and in the depression of systolic left ventricular function thereby disturbing peripheral blood pressure regulation. Small pilot studies suggested that circulating DPP3 (cDPP3) portends poor outcomes in acute heart failure and may refine risk assessment in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Purpose We aimed to assess the predictive value of cDPP3 in contemporary patients with ACS. Methods Circulating DPP3 was studied in 4311 patients with ACS in the prospective multicentre SPUM-ACS study. DPP3 levels were centrally measured in EDTA plasma by blinded study personnel using an established sandwich-type luminometric immunoassay. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and multivariable-adjusted regression models adjusted for sex, age, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, levels of creatinine, centrally measured high-sensitivity troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score. Results At baseline, median cDPP3 levels were 19.0 ng/ml (interquartile range [IQR] 15.0-26.0) with higher levels observed in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction than in those with non-ST-segment elevation ACS (20.1 [15.9-28.2] vs. 18.0 [14.1-23.9], respectively, P&amp;lt;0.001). High cDPP3 was linked to longer hospitalization and higher risk to require vasopressor use or mechanical circulatory support (per log2 increase: odds ratio [OR] 1.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.62-2.24, P&amp;lt;0.001; adjusted OR 1.35 95% CI 1.08-1.69, P=0.008). In line, high cDPP was strongly associated with increased mortality at 30 days (per log2 increase: hazard ratio [HR] 1.96, 95% CI 1.48-2.59, P&amp;lt;0.001) and at 1 year (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.24-1.83, P&amp;lt;0.001). When accounting for established risk factors, cDPP3 remained an independent predictor of premature death with doubling in cDPP3 levels translating into an 58% and 40% increase in 30-day and 1-year mortality risk, respectively (adjusted HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.34, P&amp;lt;0.023, adjusted HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.10-1.77, P=0.006, respectively). Conclusion We identified cDPP3 as a novel marker of cardiogenic shock and increased mortality in patients with ACS. Circulating DPP3 provides prognostic information beyond established risk factors and improves early risk assessment.DPP3 is linked to hemodynamic impairmentDPP3 independently predicts mortality

Abstract 11810: Is the Presence of Statin Use Before Onset of Disease Associated With In-Hospital Mortality in Elderly Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction?

Introduction: The effect of statin on preventing cardiovascular events is clear, and aggressive lipid-lowering therapy with statins is strongly recommended for patients with coronary artery disease including of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Hypothesis: The relationship between in-hospital mortality of AMI and statin use before onset of AMI in the elderly patients is unknown, we thus assessed. Methods: The subjects were 207 consecutive AMI patients aged 65 years or older who underwent successful percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) at Kagoshima university hospital between January 2015 and March 2021. We investigated the association between in-hospital mortality after PCI and baseline characteristics including Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score, which is widely used for estimating mortality in AMI patients. Results: Twenty-three patients (11%) died in-hospital. The mortality rate was significantly lower in patients who were taking statins at presentation compared to those who were not (3% vs. 16%, p=0.002). Univariate logistic regression analysis of risk factors for in-hospital mortality revealed that statin use before onset of AMI, level of serum albumin, level of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and GRACE risk score were associated with in-hospital mortality. Multivariate logistic analysis models adjusted for age, statin use, level of serum albumin, level of hs-CRP, and GRACE risk score showed that statin use [Odd's ratio (OR): 0.13, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02-0.81, p=0.029] and GRACE risk score (OR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.06, p &lt;0.001) were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. The optimal cut-off on the receiver-operating characteristic curve of GRACE risk score for predicting in-hospital mortality was 160. In addition, multivariate logistic analysis models using GRACE risk score ≥160 and non-use of statin before the onset of AMI showed greater risk of in-hospital mortality (HR 19.24; 95% CI 6.62-55.94; p &lt;0.001) after PCI as compared to patients with GRACE risk score &lt;160 and statins use. Conclusions: In elderly AMI patients undergoing PCI, statin use before the onset of AMI was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality, as was the GRACE risk score.

Can GRACE Risk Score Predict Mortality and the Need for Thrombolytic Treatment in Acute Pulmonary Embolism?

Acute coronary syndrome and pulmonary embolism (PE) are clinical entities sharing similar presentation and risk factors. Risk scores and indexes help to identify disease severity in both diseases. In this study, we aimed to evaluate if the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score could predict 30-day mortality and the need for thrombolytic treatment in patients with acute PE. Patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of PE in our tertiary center between January 2018 and May 2022 were included in this retrospective study. Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and GRACE risk scores on admission were calculated using clinical, electrocardiographic, and laboratory parameters for each patient. A total of 197 patients were included. The 30-day mortality rate was 28.4% whereas 32.5% of the patients required thrombolytic treatment. GRACE and PESI scores were found independent risk factors associated with 30-day mortality and the need for thrombolytic treatment. A cut-off value of 160.5 for GRACE score was associated with 88.5% sensitivity and 89.4% specificity in prediction of 30-day mortality. In contrast, GRACE score had 61.0% sensitivity and 60.0% specificity in the prediction of the need for thrombolytic treatment when the cut-off value was 147. In conclusion, GRACE risk score has an effective discriminating power in determining the early mortality of patients with acute PE. The incidence of short-term PE-related mortality was significantly increased in patients with high GRACE risk scores. Concomitant use of GRACE and PESI risk scores may aid in defining patients with high-risk PE and help predict poor prognosis with high specificity and probability.

Predictive value of the stress hyperglycemia ratio in dialysis patients with acute coronary syndrome: insights from a multi-center observational study

BackgroundVarious studies have indicated that stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) can reflect true acute hyperglycemic status and is associated with poor outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, data on dialysis patients with ACS are limited. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score is a well-validated risk prediction tool for ACS patients, yet it underestimates the risk of major events in patients receiving dialysis. This study aimed to evaluate the association between SHR and adverse cardiovascular events in dialysis patients with ACS and explore the potential incremental prognostic value of incorporating SHR into the GRACE risk score.MethodsThis study enrolled 714 dialysis patients with ACS from January 2015 to June 2021 at 30 tertiary medical centers in China. Patients were stratified into three groups based on the tertiles of SHR. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and the secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality.ResultsAfter a median follow-up of 20.9 months, 345 (48.3%) MACE and 280 (39.2%) all-cause mortality occurred, comprising 205 cases of cardiovascular death. When the highest SHR tertile was compared to the second SHR tertile, a significantly increased risk of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.48–2.49), all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.64–2.93), and cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.90–3.83) was identified in the multivariable Cox regression model. A similar association was observed in both diabetic and nondiabetic patients. Further restricted cubic spline analysis identified a J-shaped association between the SHR and primary and secondary outcomes, with hazard ratios for MACE and mortality significantly increasing when SHR was > 1.08. Furthermore, adding SHR to the GRACE score led to a significant improvement in its predictive accuracy for MACE and mortality, as measured by the C-statistic, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement, especially for those with diabetes.ConclusionsIn dialysis patients with ACS, SHR was independently associated with increased risks of MACE and mortality. Furthermore, SHR may aid in improving the predictive efficiency of the GRACE score, especially for those with diabetes. These results indicated that SHR might be a valuable tool for risk stratification and management of dialysis patients with ACS.

Living alone predicts poor prognosis among patients with acute myocardial infarction.

Living alone as a proxy for social isolation has been considered to increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. We thus investigated the impact of living alone on mortality in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients. Subjects comprised 277 AMI patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Associations between all-cause and cardiac deaths after PCI and baseline characteristics including living alone and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score were assessed. Eighty-three patients (30%) were living alone. Thirty patients died after PCI, including 20 cardiac deaths. Patients living alone showed higher incidences of both all-cause and cardiac deaths compared with patients not living alone (18% vs. 8%, P = 0.019 and 14% vs. 4%, P = 0.004). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis models showed living alone [hazard ratio (HR), 2.60; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20-5.62; P = 0.016 and HR, 4.17; 95% CI, 1.60-10.84; P = 0.003] and GRACE risk score (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03; P = 0.003 and HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04; P < 0.001) correlated significantly with all-cause and cardiac deaths. Cox proportional hazards modeling revealed that patients living alone with GRACE risk score ≥162 derived from the receiver-operating characteristic curve showed a significantly greater risk of all-cause death than patients not living alone with GRACE risk score <162 (HR 16.57; 95% CI 6.67-41.21; P < 0.001). Among AMI patients, living alone represents an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiac deaths after PCI, separate from GRACE risk score. Furthermore, AMI patients living alone with high GRACE risk scores may experience an additively increased risk of mortality after PCI.

Modification of the GRACE Risk Score for Risk Prediction in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes

The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score, a guideline-recommended risk stratification tool for patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), does not consider the extent of myocardial injury. To assess the incremental predictive value of a modified GRACE score incorporating high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) T at presentation, a surrogate of the extent of myocardial injury. This retrospectively designed longitudinal cohort study examined 3 independent cohorts of 9803 patients with ACS enrolled from September 2009 to December 2017; 2 ACS derivation cohorts (Heidelberg ACS cohort and Newcastle STEMI cohort) and an ACS validation cohort (SPUM-ACS study). The Heidelberg ACS cohort included 2535 and the SPUM-ACS study 4288 consecutive patients presenting with a working diagnosis of ACS. The Newcastle STEMI cohort included 2980 consecutive patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Data were analyzed from March to June 2023. In-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality risk estimates derived from an updated risk score that incorporates continuous hs-cTn T at presentation (modified GRACE). The predictive value of continuous hs-cTn T and modified GRACE risk score compared with the original GRACE risk score. Study end points were all-cause mortality during hospitalization and at 30 days and 1 year after the index event. Of 9450 included patients, 7313 (77.4%) were male, and the mean (SD) age at presentation was 64.2 (12.6) years. Using continuous rather than binary hs-cTn T conferred improved discrimination and reclassification compared with the original GRACE score (in-hospital mortality: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.835 vs 0.741; continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], 0.208; 30-day mortality: AUC, 0.828 vs 0.740; NRI, 0.312; 1-year mortality: AUC, 0.785 vs 0.778; NRI, 0.078) in the derivation cohort. These findings were confirmed in the validation cohort. In the pooled population of 9450 patients, modified GRACE risk score showed superior performance compared with the original GRACE risk score in terms of reclassification and discrimination for in-hospital mortality end point (AUC, 0.878 vs 0.780; NRI, 0.097), 30-day mortality end point (AUC, 0.858 vs 0.771; NRI, 0.08), and 1-year mortality end point (AUC, 0.813 vs 0.797; NRI, 0.056). In this study, using continuous rather than binary hs-cTn T at presentation, a proxy of the extent of myocardial injury, in the GRACE risk score improved the mortality risk prediction in patients with ACS.

Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring by Computed Tomography and the GRACE Risk Score as Predictors of Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease in Patients with Non-ST Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Comparative Study

Abstract Aim and objectives The aim of our study is to enhance patient risk stratification which can potentially influence the treatment strategy. Our objective is to evaluate the correlation of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score, the coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and their use combined with the extent and severity of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Patients and Methods This study included two hundred and two patients who presented with NSTE-ACS and were planned for coronary angiography in Ain Shams University hospitals during the period from September 2020 to February 2021. The GRACE score was calculated for all patients and they were divided into 3 groups according to the predicted in-hospital and post-discharge to 6 months mortality risk. Patients then underwent coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS) using computed tomography (CT) and were divided into 4 groups according to their Agatston score. Following invasive coronary angiography, patients were divided into 2 groups depending on whether or not there was at least one significant stenosis. Patients who had significant stenosis were then divided into 4 subgroups according to the number of vessels affected; one-vessel disease, two-vessel disease, multi-vessel disease and left main CAD. A receiveroperating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted for the CAC score, the GRACE score and for the CAC score combined with the GRACE score. It was used to suggest a cut-off value for each score below which obstructive CAD can be excluded in patients presenting with NSTE-ACS. Results The CAC score and the GRACE score were significantly higher in patients with obstructive CAD detected on invasive coronary angiography. Both, the CAC score and the GRACE score positively correlated with the number of affected coronaries. It was also detected that a CAC score of zero had a highly significant relationship with the absence of significant stenosis on invasive coronary angiography (p value &amp;lt;0.001). A CAC score of zero had a negative predictive value of 84.8% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 72.4% to 92.2%], a positive predictive value of 73.7(95% CI: 69.3% to 77.7%), a sensitivity of 94.3 %( 95% CI: 88.5% to 97.7 %), and a specificity of 48.8% (95% CI: 37.4% to 60.2%). In addition, tested the use of zero CAC to exclude obstructive CAD in patients with low inhospital and post discharge mortality risk had a higher sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values. From the ROC curve, it could be concluded that the use of CACS in combination with the GRACE score improves the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value in comparison to the use of the GRACE score alone. Conclusion CAC score as detected by CT is predictive of obstructive CAD and correlates with its extent or in other words, the number of affected coronaries. The low radiation dose and absence of contrast exposure in CACS make it an attractive candidate for the on-going research regarding the noninvasive tools for prediction of CAD. In addition to the role of GRACE score in predicting the risk of mortality in ACS, it can be also used to predict the severity and extent of obstructive CAD. It can be hypothesized that its combination with CAC score improves its reliability as a predictor of obstructive CAD.

Association of prognostic nutritional index with long-term mortality in patients receiving percutaneous coronary intervention for acute coronary syndrome: a meta-analysis

The predictive value of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) for the long-term prognosis of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains uncertain. Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar were searched from inception until January 2023 to study the relationship between all-cause mortality risk and PNI in patients receiving percutaneous coronary intervention for ACS (i.e., primary outcome). Thirteen observational studies were included in this meta-analysis. Analysis of seven studies using PNI as a categorical variable showed a pooled hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality of 2.97 (95% CI 1.65 to 5.34, p = 0.0003, I2 = 89%, n = 11,245) for patients with a low PNI. The meta-analysis also showed a higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with a low PNI (HR 2.04; 95% CI 1.59 to 2.61; p < 0.00001; I2 = 21%; n = 8534). Moreover, advanced age, diabetes mellitus, and high Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk scores were associated with a high risk of all-cause mortality, whereas a high body mass index was associated with a low risk of all-cause mortality. The results showed an association between a low PNI and an increased risk of long-term mortality in patients undergoing coronary interventions for ACS. Further randomized controlled trials are necessary to confirm these findings.

Prevalence and prognostic value of malnutrition in patients with acute coronary syndrome and chronic kidney disease.

Malnutrition is a rising global health issue associated with unfavorable outcomes of a variety of disorders. Currently, the prevalence and prognostic significance of malnutrition to patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) remained largely unclear. A total of 705 patients diagnosed with ACS and CKD in the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between 2013 and 2021 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Malnutrition was assessed by the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT), the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), and the Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), respectively. The relationships between malnutrition and all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events (MACEs) were analyzed. During a median follow-up of 31 months, 153 (21.7%) patients died, and 165 (23.4%) had MACEs. The prevalence of malnutrition was 29.8, 80.6, and 89.8% for the PNI, CONUT, and GNRI, respectively. All the malnutrition indexes were correlated with each other (r = 0.77 between GNRI and PNI, r = -0.72 between GNRI and CONUT, and r = -0.88 between PNI and CONUT, all p < 0.001). Compared with normal nutrition, malnutrition was independently associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio for moderate and severe degrees of malnutrition, respectively: 7.23 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.69 to 19.49] and 17.56 [95% CI: 5.61 to 55.09] for the CONUT score, 2.18 [95% CI: 0.93 to 5.13] and 3.16 [95% CI: 1.28 to 7.79] for the GNRI, and 2.52 [95% CI: 1.62 to 3.94] and 3.46 [95% CI: 2.28 to 5.25] for the PNI score. p values were lower than 0.05 for all nutritional indexes, except for moderate GNRI p value = 0.075). As for MACEs, similar results were observed in the CONUT and PNI. All the risk scores could improve the predictive ability of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score for both all-cause mortality and MACEs. Malnutrition was common in patients with ACS and CKD regardless of the screening tools used, and was independently associated with all-cause mortality and MACEs. Malnutrition scores could facilitate risk stratification and prognosis assessment.

Independent and joint associations between the triglyceride-glucose index and NT-proBNP with the risk of adverse cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes and acute coronary syndrome: a prospective cohort study

BackgroundElevated triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are independently associated with increased risk of major adverse cardio-cerebral events (MACCEs) in diabetic patients with the acute coronary syndrome (ACS), but have not been evaluated jointly. We sought to investigate the independent and joint association of the TyG index and NT-proBNP with MACCEs risk.MethodsData from 5046 patients with diabetes and ACS were recorded in the Cardiovascular Center Beijing Friendship Hospital Database Bank between 2013 and 2021, including measurements of fasting triglycerides, plasma glucose, and NT-proBNP. The TyG index was calculated as Ln (fasting triglycerides [mg/dL] × fasting plasma glucose [mg/dL]/2). Associations of the TyG index and NT-proBNP with MACCEs risk were assessed using flexible parametric survival models.ResultsDuring 13589.9 person-years of follow-up, 985 incident MACCEs of the 5046 patients (65.6 years of age and 62.0% men) were observed. Elevated TyG index (HR: 1.18; 95% CI 1.05‒1.32 per 1 unit increase) and NT-proBNP categories (HR: 1.95; 95% CI: 1.50‒2.54 for > 729 pg/ml compared to < 129 pg/ml) were independently associated with MACCEs risk in the fully adjusted model. According to the joint categories of the TyG index and NT-proBNP, patients with the TyG index > 9.336 and NT-proBNP > 729 pg/ml were at the highest risk of MACCEs (HR: 2.45; 95% CI 1.64‒3.65) than the ones with TyG index < 8.746 and NT-proBNP < 129 pg/ml. The test for interaction was not significant (Pinteraction = 0.49). Incorporating these two biomarkers into the established clinical model, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score, resulted in a significant improvement in risk stratification.ConclusionsThe TyG index and NT-proBNP were independently and jointly associated with the risk of MACCEs in patients with diabetes and ACS, suggesting that patients with both markers elevated should be aware of the higher risk in the future.

Effectiveness of GRACE risk score in patients admitted to hospital with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (UKGRIS): parallel group cluster randomised controlled trial

ObjectiveTo determine the effectiveness of risk stratification using the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score (GRS) for patients presenting to hospital with suspected non-ST elevation acute coronary...

Comparison of in hospital outcome of patients with and without distorted terminal portion of QRS complex on initial electrocardiogram in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction with GRACE scoring assessment

Distorted terminal portion of QRS complex on initial electrocardiogram in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction is a strong predictor of in hospital adverse outcome This observational prospective study was carried out in the department of cardiology, BSMMU, Dhaka from July 2014 to June 2015 to analyse admission ECG in patients of STEMI based on terminal portion of QRS complex and find out inhospital death, heart failure, cardiogenic shock and recurrent myocardial infarction, with GRACE scoring assessment. Total 60 patients with STEMI (age 54.33±10.37, 55M/5/F) were included in this study after analysing the selection criteria. We defined two ECG groups according to absence of distortion of terminal QRS (Group-I) and presence of distorted terminal QRS (Group-II) in two or more adjacent leads. Group-II further divided into pattern-A – J point originating at ³50% of height of R wave in leads with qR configuration and pattern B- S wave is absent in leads with RS configuration. Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score was evaluated and compared in between two groups. Out of 60 patients of STEMI, 30 patients had distortion of QRS complex. There were 7 deaths, 16 heart failure, 3 cardigenic shock and no recurrent myocardial infarction. Hospital mortality and heart failure were found to be significantly higher in distorted QRS group (1 vs. 6 patients p=0.04; 4 vs. 12 patients p=0.02; respectively), cardiogenic shock of both groups did not show significant difference (0 vs. 3 patients p=0.075). Multiple logistic regression analysis using hospital mortality as dependable variable and all studied risk factors were independent variables, QRS distortion on admission ECG and Killip class were only variable found to be statistically significant (OR=7.25, p value &lt; 0.05 ; OR=16.25, p value&lt; 0.05 respectively). GRACE risk score was significantly high in distorted QRS group and low in without QRS distorted group (6 vs 15 patients p=0.014; 6 vs 16 patients p=0.007; respectively). Intermediate GRACE score did not show any statistically significant difference between two groups (p=0.77). Careful analysis of ECG which is simple, cheap, universally available bed side investigation may offer important prognostic information in patients with STEMI and would help in deciding which patients should go urgent myocardial revascularization procedure. Assessment of GRACE risk scoring is strongly encourage in everyday clinical practice as it provides reliable identification of STEMI patients who are at high risk of death. Bangladesh Medical Res Counc Bull 2022; 48(3): 211-218

Adding value of the Charlson comorbidity index to the Grace score for mortality risk prediction in patients with acute coronary syndrome

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score is widely recommended for risk assessment in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) is a recognized measure of comorbid burden, and a useful tool for estimating prognosis in patients with multiple coexisting illnesses. Despite it has been validated in the context of ACS-related mortality, scarce and conflicting data still exist about the role of the CCI when added to the traditional GRACE risk score for outcome prediction in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Purpose The assessment of the potential predictive value of the CCI both for short, and long term all-cause mortality, in a contemporary ACS population, and its potential adding value beyond the GRACE risk score. Methods All consecutive admission due to ST-elevation myocardial infarction-STEMI, non ST elevated myocardial infarction-NSTEMI, and unstable angina-UA, from 01/01/2018 to 31/12/2020 were retrospectively reviewed from an internal database of a tertiary cardiac center in Italy. Logistic and Cox proportional regression analysis were performed in order to assess the contribution of the CCI on short and long term mortality. In order to specify the CCI adding value to the GRACE score, several measures of improvement in discrimination (increase in the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve-AUC, the integrated discrimination improvement-IDI, and the continuous net reclassification improvement-cNRI&amp;gt;0) , were implemented. Robustness of the results were assessed through an internal validation procedure with bootstrapping. Results A total of 1310 patients (646 STEMI, 588 NSTEMI, and 76 UA) were identified. Almost 28% were female, and the median age was 68 (58-78). 97 (7,4%) and 136 (11,2%) deaths occurred, respectively, in hospital and during long term follow-up (median follow-up time: 12 months; IQR: 8-23). After multivariate logistic regression analysis the CCI was not associated with in-hospital death, while it was significantly and independently associated with the long-term mortality along with GRACE score (HR: 1,33, 95% CI: 1,22-1,43; p&amp;lt;0,001, Fig.1). An additive effect of CCI with the GRACE risk score was observed in predicting long-term mortality with an AUC from 0,762 to 0.821 (p &amp;lt; 0,001). The incremental predictive value of combining CCI and the GRACE risk score for the long term mortality was significantly improved, as shown by the net reclassification improvement (cNRI&amp;gt;0: 0.678, p &amp;lt; 0.001, Table 1) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI: 0.08, p &amp;lt; 0.001). Conclusion The CCI is a predictor of long-term mortality and improves risk stratification of patients with ACS over the GRACE risk score.

Prognostic significance of serial N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels in patients with acute myocardial infarction: A prospective study

This study aimed to investigate the association between N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels at different sampling times and prognosis in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) undergoing emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Between March 2017 and January 2020, 1,105 patients with AMI who underwent emergency PCI were included. NT-proBNP levels were measured on days 0, 1, 2, 3, and 7. A composite of all-cause death, MI recurrence (reMI), and rehospitalization due to heart failure, known as major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), was recorded. During the 36.8-month follow-up, 175 patients (15.8%) experienced MACEs. When patients were grouped based on quartiles of NT-proBNP levels on days 0 and 7, the results demonstrated that patients in quartile 4 showed a substantially increased MACE risk compared to those in quartile 1 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.27, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.27-4.08, P=.006; HR 2.20, 95%CI:1.23-3.94, P=.008). There were U-shaped relationships between the HR for MACE and NT-proBNP levels on days 2, 3, and 7, as well as peak NT-proBNP (P for nonlinearity=.007, .006, .004, and .009, respectively). A similar relationship was observed in the HR for reMI and NT-proBNP levels on days 2 and 3. For MACE at 3 years, serial NT-proBNP levels improved the predictive accuracy of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score (concordance index [C-index]: 0.711; continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI]: 0.192, 95% CI: 0.022-0.445; integrated discrimination improvement [IDI]: 0.034, 95% CI: 0.016-0.064). For all-cause death at 3 years, the combination of NT-proBNP and GRACE score showed excellent performance, with C-index, continuous NRI, and IDI values of 0.801, 0.373 (95%CI: 0.072-0.853), and 0.051 (95%CI: 0.025-0.091), respectively. Early and sequential measurement of NT-proBNP levels could assist in predicting MACE risk. Moreover, the relationship between MACE risk and NT-proBNP levels was U-shaped. clinicaltrials.gov NCT: 03593928.