Actual Incidence Rate Research Articles

Correlation between Bone Marrow Microvascular Density, Angiogenesis Factors and Bortezomib Resistance in Multiple Myeloma

To investigate the correlation between bone marrow microvascular density, angiogenesis factors and bortezomib resistance in multiple myeloma (MM). The data of 200 patients with MM treated in our hospital from January 2020 to August 2023 were retrospectively analyzed, and the patients with MM were divided into drug-resistant group(n=68) and non-drug-resistant group(n=132) according to their drug resistance during bortezomib treatment. The univariate and multivariate logistic analysis were used to screen the independent influencing factors of bortezomib resistance in MM patients during treatment. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and clinical decision curve (DCA) were used to evaluate the predictive performance and clinical application value of the risk prediction model, the consistency between the actual incidence rate and the predicted incidence rate was judged by validating the calibration chart, and the goodness-of-fit of the model was judged by H-L test. 68 of the 200 MM patients developed resistance and poor clinical efficacy during bortezomib treatment, and the clinical resistance rate of bortezomib was 34.0%. The results of multivariate analysis showed that high bone marrow microvessel density (MVD) and high bone marrow supernatant VEGF, HGF, and bFGF expression levels were independent risk factors for bortezomib resistance in MM patients (P < 0.05). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model jointly constructed by bone marrow MVD, serum VEGF, HGF, bFGF and TNF-α levels was 0.924, and its sensitivity and specificity were 92.6% and 78.8%, which were higher than those of the bone marrow MVD model (AUC=0.743) and the vasogenesis factor model (AUC=0.878). The calibration curve of the joint prediction model was close to the standard curve, indicating that the model is more consistent. The results of H-L goodness -of - fit test showed χ2=14.748， P =0.164, the joint prediction model had a good fit. The DCA curve showed that the clinical net benefit of intervention in the range of 0.0~1.0 was greater than that of full intervention and no intervention. The prediction model based on bone marrow MVD and vasogenesis factors (VEGF, HGF, bFGF) in MM patients has higher clinical evaluation performance and predictive value.

Antibiotic-induced neuropsychiatric toxicity: epidemiology, mechanisms and management strategies - a narrative literature review.

Antibiotics are amongst the most prescribed medications globally in both inpatient and outpatient settings. Antibiotic-induced neuropsychiatric toxicity is relatively uncommon; yet, when it occurs, it can lead to severe morbidity ranging from dizziness and confusion to seizure and psychosis. However, the actual incidence rate of these adverse events may be higher due to underdiagnosis or misdiagnosis as they are commonly confused with clinical manifestations of different neuropsychiatric conditions. The incidence and mechanism of antibiotic-induced neuropsychiatric toxicity vary between different antibiotic classes and clinical presentation (i.e. neurotoxicity versus psychiatric toxicity). However, the exact mechanism by which antibiotics can cause neuropsychiatric toxicity remains unclear. This article reviews the epidemiology of antibiotic-induced neuropsychiatric toxicity, explores potential mechanisms of this adverse event, investigates variations in frequency and clinical presentations between different antibiotic classes causing neuropsychiatric toxicity, and discusses management strategies.

Antibiotic Management for Early-Onset Sepsis in Neonates With Gestational Ages of ≥ 34 Weeks: The Kaiser Sepsis Calculator Versus the 2010 CDC Guidelines.

The traditional approach to neonatal early-onset sepsis (NEOS) management, involving maternal risk factors and nonspecific neonatal symptoms, usually leads to unnecessary antibiotic use. This study addresses these concerns by evaluating the Kaiser sepsis calculator (KSC) in guiding antibiotic therapy for NEOS, especially in high-incidence facilities (over 4/1,000 live births), by comparing it against the 2010 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines for neonates ≥34 weeks with suspected sepsis, thereby emphasizing its implications for personalized patient care. This is a prospective observational study. All neonates of 34 gestational weeks or more, presenting with either maternal risk factors or sepsis symptoms within 12 hours of birth, were included in the study. The analysis focused on antibiotic recommendations by the 2010 CDC guidelines versus those by the KSC at presumed (0.5/1,000) and actual (16/1,000) sepsis incidence rates. NEOS was identified in 14 cases (14.1%). Compared to the KSC, at an incidence rate of 16 per 1,000, the KSCresulted in a significant 32.3% reduction in antibiotic treatment (74 cases (74.7%) vs. 42 cases (42.4%), respectively; p < 0.001). The calculator advised immediate antibiotic utilization for 13 out of 14 (92.9%) diagnosed cases, suggesting further evaluation for the remaining cases. When a presumed incidence of 0.5/1,000 was applied, the KSC indicated antibiotics less frequently than when using the actual rate of 16/1,000 (p<0.001) with two missed NEOS cases. Using the KSC led to a decrease of 32 cases (32.3%)in unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions compared to adherence to 2010 CDC guidelines. However, setting a presumed incidence below the actual rate risked missing NEOS. The calculator was effective when actual local incidence rates were used, ensuring no missed cases needing antibiotics.

The impact of COVID-19 and missed diagnosis of breast cancer.

1118 Background: To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer diagnosis based on age, race, and regions within the US. Methods: Data on breast cancer incidence were obtained from the United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) program from 2001-2020. SEER*Stat 8.4.1.2 and Joinpoint regression program 5.0.2 were used to calculate estimated and actual incidence rates per 100,000 females. Rates were age-adjusted as appropriate. We compared actual breast cancer incidence rates in the year 2020 to estimated rates based on trends from 2001-2019 with sub-analyses for age, race, and region. Results: From 2001 to 2019, there were 4,005,763 identified cases of breast cancer in the United States. In 2019, prior to the pandemic, the incidence rate of breast cancer was 162.87 per 100,000 in females in the US. Based on the data from 2001 to 2019, breast cancer increased by 1.32% per year (p&lt;0.001). Using these prior trends, it was expected that the incidence of breast cancer to be 165.02 per 100,000 adults (265,206 total cases) in 2020. However, the reported incidence was only 147.77 per 100,000 (237,471). Thus, there were 10.46% (27,735) less breast cancer cases than expected. The missed diagnosis rate was more pronounced in older age groups with 15.89%, 14.75%, and 13.27% cases missed for the age groups 85+, 80-84, and 70-74 respectively. Based on racial and ethnic groups, we found that Hispanic females had the greatest number of missed cases at 13.04% compared to 12.68%, 10.57%, and 8.94% of Non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islander (NHAPI), Non-Hispanic White (NHW), and Non-Hispanic Black (NHB) females respectively. The discrepancy between expected and actual number of cases by U.S. region ranged from the highest in the Northeast (11.90%) followed by 11.83%, 10.60%, and 9.49% in the West, South, and Midwest regions respectively. An intersectionality analysis showed that 40–44-year-old Hispanic females residing in the Midwest region had the largest discrepancy at 27.01%. Conclusions: The reported breast cancer cases significantly declined during the pandemic. Older age, Hispanic race and ethnicity, and those residing in the Northeast region had the greatest number of missing cases. As breast cancer is the most common cancer in the United States, more mitigating factors are needed to improve the access to care for patients in these at-risk groups to improve detection of breast cancer and its associated mortality.

Measuring COVID-19's impact on diagnosis of cervical cancer by race/ethnicity, age, and region of the United States.

e17535 Background: The COVID-19 pandemic brought to light significant access-to-care issues for patients across the country, which we hypothesized may have disrupted recent trends in incidence for certain screenable diseases. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cervical cancer incidence based on age, race, stage at presentation, and regions of the US. Methods: Data on cervical cancer incidence were obtained from the United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) program from 2001-2020. We employed SEER*Stat 8.4.1.2 and Joinpoint regression program 5.0.2 to calculate estimated and actual incidence rates per 100,000 women. We compared actual cervical cancer incidence rates in the year 2020 to estimated rates based on trends from the years 2001-2019. Results: From 2001-2020, 245,618 cases of cervical cancer were identified. In 2019, prior to the pandemic, the incidence was 7.64 per 100,000 women. From 2001-2019, cervical cancer incidence decreased by 0.96% per year (p=0.023). Based on this trend, we expected the incidence to be 7.57 per 100,000 women in 2020, but the reported incidence was only 6.83 per 100,000, therefore, there were 9.8% less cervical cancer cases (1,189 cases) in 2020 than expected. This was most noticeable at the lower and upper ends of the age distribution, with 17.6% less cases than expected in the year 2020among 25-29 year-olds and 18.4% less cases than expected among 85+ year-olds. This is in comparison to the median age group for cervical cancer (50-54 year-olds) in whom there were 14.5% (193) less cases than expected in 2020. Based on stage of disease, for local, regional, and distant disease there were 16.3%, 2.8%, and 1.9%, less cases than expected in 2020, respectively. Within racial and ethnic groups, we found that Non-Hispanic Black (NHB) and Hispanic patients had 15.0% and 13.9% less cases than expected, versus 8.7% among Non-Hispanic White (NHW) and 5.8% among Non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander (NHAPI) patients. Comparing U.S. regions, the Midwest, Northeast, West, and South had 14.6%, 10.2%, 10.2%, and 9.0% less cases than expected for 2020, respectively. Conclusions: Our data suggest that the reported cervical cancer cases were significantly less than predicted based on past trends during the COVID-19 pandemic.. Older age, NHB and Hispanic patients, and those residing in Midwest states had the greatest number of possible missed diagnoses of cervical cancer during this time. Mitigating strategies are needed to reinstate screening programs, particularly in these at-risk groups to prevent increased rates of advanced stage disease and mortality.

The impact of COVID-19 and missed diagnosis of colorectal cancer.

e15598 Background: To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on colorectal cancer diagnosis based on sex, age, race, and regions within the US. Methods: Data on colorectal cancer incidence were obtained from the United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) program from 2001-2020. SEER*Stat 8.4.1.2 and Joinpoint regression program 5.0.2 were used to calculate estimated and actual incidence rates per 100,000 adults. Rates were age-adjusted as appropriate. We compared actual colorectal cancer incidence rates in the year 2020 to estimated rates based on trends from 2001-2019 with sub-analyses for sex, age, race, and region. Results: From 2001 to 2019, there were 2,627,565 identified cases of colorectal cancer in the United States. In 2019, prior to the pandemic, the incidence rate of colorectal cancer was the highest in males at 42.26 per 100,000 compared to 32.18 in females. The overall cancer incidence was 36.87 per 100,000 in both males and females in the US. Based on the data from 2001 to 2019, colorectal cancer decreased by 2.20% per year (p &lt; 0.001). Using these prior trends, it was expected that the incidence of colorectal cancer to be 36.44 per 100,000 adults (115,392 total cases) in 2020. However, the reported incidence was only 32.47 per 100,000 (102,798). Thus, there were 10.9% (12,594) less colorectal cancer cases than expected. The missed diagnosis rate was more pronounced in males compared to females, where 11.90% and 10.84% less colorectal cancer cases were detected compared to expected in 2020, respectively. Based on age, the cases missed were the highest amongst middle aged adults, with 13.56%, 13.49%, and 13.05% cases missed for the age groups between 50-54, 65-69, and 70-74 respectively. Based on racial and ethnic groups, we found that Non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islander (NHAPI) had the greatest number of missed cases at 14.38% compared to 11.98%, 11.36%, and 11.27% of Non-Hispanic Black (NHB), Non-Hispanic White (NHW), and Hispanic adults, respectively. The discrepancy between expected and actual number of cases by U.S. region ranged from the highest in the Southern (11.64%) to the lowest in the Western (10.92%) region. An intersectionality analysis showed that 40–44-year-old NHAPI females residing in the Western region had the largest discrepancy at 47.96%. Conclusions: The reported colorectal cancer cases significantly declined during the pandemic. Males, middle age, NHAPI and NHB race and ethnicity, and those residing in the Southern region had the most number of missing cases. Due to the widespread prevalence of colorectal cancers, more mitigating factors are needed to improve the access to care for patients in these at-risk groups to improve diagnosis and detection of colorectal cancer and its associated mortality.

Sun exposure and protection habits: Self-reported attitudes, knowledge and behaviours.

As exposure to UV radiation is the primary modifiable environmental risk factor associated with skin cancer, it remains the principal focus of most prevention strategies. Numerous sun protection campaigns have been implemented worldwide; however, their impact on the actual incidence and mortality rates of skin cancer seems to be limited. To create successful skin cancer prevention campaigns, it is important to have a comprehensive understanding of individuals' attitudes and behaviours regarding sun protection. The aim of the current study was to determine and report on the prevalence of self-reported attitudes, knowledge and behaviours regarding two of the major sun protection recommendations-avoidance of sun exposure and use of sunscreens-in an international representative sample across five continents. This cross-sectional study was conducted in 20 countries using a web-based online survey. A total of 50,552 individuals, comprising 25,388 men (50.22%) and 25,164 women (49.78%), participated in the survey. Among them, 83.2% reported having been voluntarily exposed to the sun (for sun-basking reasons) at least once in the last 12 months, and 47.96% acknowledged being exposed to the sun between the hours of 10 AM and 4 PM. The primary reason for non-adherence was that these hours were the most convenient times (32.28%). Only 24.05% reported applying sunscreen every 2 h when outdoors. Forgetfulness was the primary reason as provided by 27.79% of participants. Males and older age groups were less likely to adopt sun-protective behaviours around the world. Forgetfulness and the challenges posed by time constraints seem to be the biggest barriers to proper adherence. These findings should prompt the collaboration with health authorities and the manufacturers to enhance adherence by setting reasonable sunscreen prices and creating formulations that make their application less burdensome.

Diagnostic performance of the gallbladder reporting and data system combined with color doppler flow imaging for gallbladder cancer in the Asian population.

Evaluating the performance of the Gallbladder Reporting and Data System (GB-RADS) combined with Color Doppler Flow Imaging (CDFI) for the diagnosis of gallbladder wall thickening disease in an Asian population. In this study, the lesions were classified and the actual incidence rate of malignant tumors was calculated for each GB-RADS category, following the guidelines provided by GB-RADS. To evaluate the diagnostic performance of GB-RADS and GB-RADS combined with CDFI, we plotted Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves. The sensitivity (SE), specificity (SP), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy (AC) were also calculated. Inter-observer agreement (IRA) between the two observers was assessed using Kappa values. The incidence of malignancy risk for GB-RADS 2, 3, 4, and 5 was 9%, 12.5%, 72.2%, and 100%. The AUC for GB-RADS was 0.855 (95% CI: 0.800-0.900), with a sensitivity of 82.5%, a specificity of 84.6%, and an accuracy of 83.8%. The AUC of GB-RADS combined with CDFI was 0.965 (95% CI: 0.930-0.985), with a sensitivity of 96.2%, a specificity of 94.6%, and an accuracy of 95.2%. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of GB-RADS combined with CDFI for diagnosing gallbladder malignancy were higher than those of GB-RADS alone, and the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). The IRA was excellent between the two observers (Kappa = 0.870). GB-RADS combined with CDFI demonstrated excellent diagnostic accuracy when it comes to distinguishing various diseases that caused gallbladder wall thickening in the Asian population, which has good clinical value and can improve the detection rate of malignant tumors in patients with gallbladder wall thickening.

Efficacy of cervical perivascular sympathectomy in improving upper limb motor function in children with cerebral palsy and construction of a predictive model

BackgroundThe effectiveness of cervical perivascular sympathectomy (CPVS) in enhancing upper limb motor function in children with cerebral palsy is unclear, and the factors that influence the effectiveness of the surgery have not been documented. ObjectiveTo investigate the effectiveness of CPVS in enhancing upper limb motor function in children with cerebral palsy and develop a predictive chart for potential associated adverse outcomes MethodsThe study included 187 children with cerebral palsy who underwent CPVS at the Cerebral Palsy Center, Second Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, between January 2018 and January 2022. Patients were categorized into two groups based on prognostic outcomes: those with adverse and favorable prognoses. Demographic and laboratory data were collected and analyzed from both groups. To identify independent predictors of poor post-CPVS upper limb motor function outcomes, statistical techniques, including univariate analysis and binary logistic regression, were applied. Subsequently, these predictors were integrated to formulate a comprehensive predictive model. ResultsIn this cohort of 187 children with cerebral palsy undergoing CPVS, 68 (36.36%) exhibited a favorable prognosis for upper limb motor function and 119 (63.64%) demonstrated an adverse prognosis. Age, motor function, and serum albumin levels were identified as significant prognostic factors via logistic regression analysis. To develop the model, we divided the sample into a training set (70%, n = 131) and a validation set (30%, n = 56). Employing motor function, serum albumin levels, and age as variables, we crafted a predictive model. The model's performance, reflected by the area under the curve was 0.813 (0.732, 0.894) in the training set and 0.770 (0.647, 0.892) in the validation set, demonstrating its robust predictive capability for post-CPVS adverse outcomes. Furthermore, the consistency curve and Hosmer–Lemeshow test (χ2 = 8.808, p = 0.359) illustrated a strong concordance between the model's predictions of poor prognosis and the actual incidence rate. ConclusionCPVS has been shown to be effective in improving upper limb motor function in patients with cerebral palsy. Independent prognostic factors identified encompass motor function, age, and serum albumin levels. The composite predictive model shows potential for clinical applications.

Population-Based Study of the Incidence and Mortality Rate of Acute Aortic Dissection.

Acute aortic dissection (AAD) has high morbidity and a high fatality rate for a cardiovascular disease. Recent studies suggested that the incidence of AAD is increasing. However, the actual incidence and mortality rates of AAD are not well known. This study investigated the current epidemiology of AAD within the Yatsushiro medical jurisdictional area. A population-based review of patients with AAD was performed in a geographically well-defined area. Data were collected retrospectively from January 2011 to December 2020 for a total of 196 patients with AAD (Stanford Type A, n=126 [64.3%]; Stanford Type B, n=70 [35.7%]). The mean patient age was 74.3 years, and 55.6% (109/196) were women. The crude and age-standardized incidence rates of AAD in our medical jurisdictional area were 13.6 and 11.4 per 100,000 inhabitants per year, respectively. The crude and age-standardized 30-day mortality rates of AAD were 4.9 and 4.0 per 100,000 inhabitants per year, respectively. There were upward tendencies for both the incidence and 30-day mortality rate of AAD with age, with both being significantly higher in patients aged ≥85 years (P<0.001). This population-based study detected a higher incidence of AAD than previous studies, but reported a lower incidence of AAD in men than in women. Increasing age was associated with an increased incidence and mortality rate of AAD.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number and short-term outcomes in hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: Results from the Japanese National Clinical Database, 2018-2021.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly impacted the allocation of medical resources, including cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment. We aimed to investigate the effects of the pandemic on morbidity and mortality following hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We identified patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC between 2018 and 2021 from the Japanese National Clinical Database (NCD). The number of surgical cases, the use of intensive care units, and the incidence of morbidity were assessed. The standardized morbidity/mortality ratio (SMR) was used to evaluate the rates of morbidity (bile leakage and pneumonia) and mortality in each month, which compares the observed incidence to the expected incidence calculated by the NCD's risk calculator. The study included a total of 10647 cases. The number of patients undergoing hepatectomy for HCC gradually decreased. The proportion of patients aged 80years or older increased and that of cases with T1 stage decreased. The proportion of patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit did not change between the pre- and postpandemic period. The mean actual incidence rates of bile leakage, pneumonia, 30-day mortality, and surgical mortality were 9.2%, 2.3%, 1.4%, and 2.1%, respectively. The SMR for the mortalities and morbidities in each month did not increase mostly throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The present study showed the decreasing number of resected cases for HCC, while the surgical safety for hepatectomy was enough to be maintained by managing medical resources in Japan.

Establishment and evaluation of a nomogram prediction model for the risk of vascular calcification in stage 5 chronic kidney disease patients

Vascular calcification (VC) is a common complication of chronic kidney disease (CKD) that has a detrimental effect on patients' survival and prognosis. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a practical and reliable prediction model for VC in CKD5 patients. The medical records of 544 CKD5 patients were reviewed retrospectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for vascular calcification in patients with CKD5 and then created a nomogram prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer–Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess model performance. The patients were split into groups with normal and high serum uric acid levels, and the factors influencing these levels were investigated. Age, BUN, SUA, P and TG were independent risk factors for vascular calcification in CKD5 patients in the modeling group (P < 0.05). In the internal validation, the results of model showed that the AUC was 0.917. No significant divergence between the predicted probability of the nomogram and the actual incidence rate (x2 = 5.406, P = 0.753) was revealed by the calibration plot and HL test, thus confirming that the calibration was satisfactory. The external validation also showed good discrimination (AUC = 0.973). The calibration chart and HL test also demonstrated good consistency. Besides, the correlation analysis of serum uric acid levels in all CKD5 patients revealed that elevated uric acid levels may be related to gender, BUN, P, and TG.

ПРОГНОЗ И АКТУАЛЬНАЯ ДИНАМИКА ЗАБОЛЕВАЕМОСТИ БОЛЕЗНЯМИ СИСТЕМЫ КРОВООБРАЩЕНИЯ ВЗРОСЛОГО НАСЕЛЕНИЯ РОССИИ И ДАЛЬНЕВОСТОЧНОГО РЕГИОНА

Significance. The study analyzes dynamics in incidence of the most common socially significant pathology - diseases of the circulatory system in the Far Eastern Federal District and the Russian Federation as a whole with due regard to the territorial and economic prospects for the Far East development. The purpose of the study was to analyze incidence of diseases of the circulatory system and their individual types on the example of the Far Eastern Federal District and the Russian Federation as a whole, as well as to compare short-term and long-term projections and actual data. Material and methods. The study has undertaken a comparative analysis of the dynamics in predictive and actual indicators of the overall incidence and incidence of diseases of the circularity system and individual nosological forms over five-year and ten-year periods until 2021. The period of the coronavirus infection (COVID-19) pandemic has been separately analyzed. Results. In general, a more intensive increase in morbidity in the Russian Federation and the Far Eastern Federal District has been identified in comparison with the projected increase. For 5 years prior to 2019, the increase in the overall incidence of diseases of the circulatory system in the Russian Federation turned out to be almost 4 times higher than projected, while incidence was more than 2 times higher than projected. During the COVID-19 pandemic (from 2017 to 2021), the growth dynamics slowed down significantly, 2-fold exceeding the projected overall incidence and more than 1.5-fold the projected incidence. Such trends may be a consequence of the effective ongoing preventive measures aimed at early detection of diseases. Against this background, there is a decrease in the growth rate of the incidence of diseases of the circulatory system in the Russian Federation and the Far Eastern Federal District in the context of the pandemic of a new coronavirus infection. In the Far Eastern Federal District in 2017-2021, compared with the pre-pandemic period, there was a decrease in the overall incidence increase by 65.5% with the increase inversion in incidence. During the period including the pandemic, the Russian Federation and the Far Eastern Federal District registered a negative growth rate of the overall incidence and incidence of ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The noted decrease in the actual incidence rates of diseases of the circulatory system, which is not comparable with the projected trends, requires an analysis of causes of the change in the epidemiological situation under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusion and scope of application. In general, we suppose that a decrease in the growth rate in incidence indicators in the Russian Federation and the Far Eastern Federal District during the pandemic of a new coronavirus infection cannot have a long-term impact on epidemiological indicators of diseases of the circulatory system. However, it indicates the necessity to develop reserves of the healthcare system in order to prevent such situations in future.

Аналіз захворюваності на Лайм-бореліоз під час епідемії COVID-19

The global pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has created unprecedented health, social and economic challenges, and has led to a sharp decline in official statistical reporting of many infectious diseases, including Lyme borreliosis (LB), especially in children, due to COVID-19-related health, anti-epidemic and quarantine measures. Purpose - to assess the completeness of statistical accounting of LB in children against the background of the COVID-19 situation in the context of the epidemic in the Ternopil region of Ukraine that began in the spring of 2020. Materials and methods. A PubMed search was conducted for analytical articles on LB and COVID-19 for the period from 2020 to February 2023. Epidemiological analysis and forecasting were performed using statistical methods. The search included 300 publications. After the selection process, 25 publications were included in the review. The results of long-term epidemiologic surveillance of tick-borne infectious diseases in the Ternopil region, including data from official statistics, epidemiologic investigations, and laboratory studies, were analyzed. To predict the incidence of LB in the first half of 2023 for the age group 0-17 years, over 17 years and all age groups, increasing polynomial trends of the second order with approximation coefficients equal to 1 were used. To predict the incidence of COVID-19 in the first half of 2023 for the age group 0-17 years, an increasing linear trend with an approximation coefficient equal to 0.8 was used. To predict the incidence of COVID-19 in the first half of 2023 for the age groups 18-29 years, 30-49 years, 50-65 years, over 65 years and all age groups, we used decreasing polynomial trends of the second order with approximation coefficients equal to 1. The vast majority of the highest values of the approximation coefficients confirm the high accuracy of predicting the incidence of VL and COVID-19 in the first half of 2023 in the Ternopil region. Results and conclusions. The officially registered number of cases of pulmonary disease, including among children, during the COVID-19 epidemic in Ternopil region is likely incomplete and does not reflect the actual incidence rate. This is due to the problem of identifying patients with pulmonary disease during the COVID-19 epidemic. After a sharp decline in reported cases of LB in 2020 compared to previous years, in 2021-2023, there was an improvement in its detection and diagnosis, but at levels lower than before the COVID-19 epidemic. However, the proportion of children is decreasing. No conflict of interests was declared by the authors.

Optimization of Monitoring of Nosocomial Infections in Hospitals of the Republic of North Ossetia–Alania

Introduction: Optimization of epidemiological and microbiological monitoring of nosocomial infections at the regional level will contribute to limiting circulation and spread of pathogens and improving preventive measures on the territory of the Russian Federation. Objective: To determine directions of optimization of epidemiological and microbiological monitoring of healthcare-associated infections in surgery departments and intensive care units of hospitals of the Republic of North Ossetia – Alania. Materials and methods: We carried out a retrospective epidemiological analysis of the incidence of nosocomial infections and results of microbiological monitoring conducted in surgery departments and intensive care units of ten multidisciplinary hospitals of the Republic of North Ossetia – Alania in 2015–2019. We also examined data on evaluation of preventive measures, infection control, and compliance with criteria of internal quality control and safety in health care. Results: According to the results of routine surveillance and specially organized epidemiological and microbiological monitoring, the incidence rates of healthcare-associated infections were 0.85 and 26.4 per 1,000 inpatients in surgery departments and intensive care units of hospitals of the Republic of North Ossetia – Alania, respectively. The incidence rates of certain types of nosocomial infections were statistically different (p ≤ 0.05) depending on the type of monitoring (routine/optimized): surgical site infections – 15.9/132.8 per 1,000 surgeries, catheter-associated urinary tract infections – 8.5/69.4 per 1,000 catheter days, central line-associated bloodstream infections – 7.74/89.12 per 1,000 catheter days, and ventilator-associated pneumonia – 8.12/39.74 per 1,000 ventilator days. K. pneumoniae strains isolated from surgery and intensive care patients and exhibiting extreme resistance to antimicrobial drugs belong to sequence type 1082, possess a high pandemic potential, and are widespread in many countries. According to the results of assessing compliance with the criteria of internal quality control and safety of health care, only three of ten hospitals in the Republic of North Ossetia – Alania had the compliance rate ≥ 70 %. As for the readiness for infection prevention and control in surgery departments and intensive care units, 60 % of the hospitals demonstrated a basic level and 40 % – an intermediate level of measures taken. Conclusions: Optimization of approaches to tracing healthcare-associated infections in the hospitals of the Republic of North Ossetia – Alania helped establish that actual incidence rates of nosocomial infections were on the average 26.4 times higher than those officially registered based on the results of routine surveillance.

Effectiveness of China-PAR and Framingham risk score in assessment of 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in Chinese hypertensive patients

ObjectivesEstimating the total risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using risk prediction models represents a huge improvement in identifying and treating each of the risk factors. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the China-PAR (Prediction of atherosclerotic CVD risk in China) and Framingham risk score (FRS) in predicting the 10-year risk of CVD in Chinese hypertensive patients. The results of the study can be used to design health promotion strategies. Study designA large cohort study was used to assess the validity of models by comparing model predictions with actual incidence rates. MethodsIn total, 10,498 hypertensive patients aged 30–70 years in Jiangsu Province, China, participated in the baseline survey that took place between January and December 2010 and were followed up to May 2020. China-PAR and FRS were used to calculate the predicted 10-year risk of CVD. The 10-year observed incidence of new cardiovascular events was adjusted by the Kaplan–Meier method. The ratio of the predicted risk to the actual incidence was calculated to evaluate the effectiveness of the model. The discrimination Harrell's C statistics and calibration Chi-square value were used to evaluate the predictive reliability of the models. ResultsOf the 10,498 participants, 4411 (42.02%) were male. During the mean follow-up of 8.30 ± 1.45 years, a total of 693 new cardiovascular events occurred. Both models overestimated the risk of morbidity to varying degrees, and the FRS overestimated to a greater extent. After adjustment for covariates, the results of Cox proportional hazards regression showed that the risk of CVD in the high-risk group was higher than in low-risk group. The degree of discrimination in both models was approximately 0.6, which showed that discrimination was not ideal in the models. In addition, Chi-square calibrations of the two models were <20 in males, which showed that calibration of the models was better for men than women. ConclusionsThe China-PAR and FRS models overestimated the risk of CVD for participants in this study. In addition, the degree of discrimination was not ideal, and both models performed better in males than in females in terms of calibration. The results of this study suggest that a more suitable risk prediction model should be established according to the characteristics of the hypertensive population in Jiangsu Province.

The impact of safety culture, quality of care, missed care and nurse staffing on patient falls: A multisource association study.

To examine the association between nursing unit safety culture, quality of care, missed care and nurse staffing levels, and inpatient falls using two data sources: incidence of falls and nurses' perceptions of fall frequency in their units. The study explores the association between the two sources of patient falls and identifies if nurses' perceptions of patient fall frequency reflect the actual patient falls recorded in the incident management system. Inpatient falls are associated with severe complications that result in extended hospitalisation and increased financial consequences for patients and healthcare services. A multi-source cross-sectional study guided by the STROBE guidelines. A purposive sample of 33 nursing units (619 nurses) from five hospitals completed an online survey from August to November 2021. The survey measured safety culture, quality of care, missed care, nurse staffing levels and nurses' perceptions of patient fall frequency. In addition, secondary data on falls from participating units between 2018 and 2021 were also collected. Generalised linear models were fitted to examine the association between study variables. Nursing units with strong safety climate and working conditions and lower missed care were associated with lower rates of falls using both data sources. Nurses' perceptions of the frequency of falls in their units were reflective of the actual incidence rate of falls, but the association was not statistically significant. Nursing units with a strong safety climate and better collaborations between nurses and other professionals, including physicians and pharmacists, were associated with lower incidents of patient falls. This study provided evidence for healthcare services and hospital managers to minimise patient falls. Patients who had experienced a fall, which was reported in the incident management system, from the included units in the five hospitals were part of this study.

Explanatory models for tick-borne disease incidence (Astrakhan rickettsial fever and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever)

Introduction. The study focuses on methods providing mathematical substantiation of discrepancies between actual incidence rates of Astrakhan rickettsial fever (ARF) and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) and predicted rates due to the indirect impact of weather conditions during the current epidemic season.&#x0D; The purpose of the study was to develop explanatory models for ARF and CCHF incidence using satellite monitoring (remote sensing) data and to present the results of their practical evaluation in the Stavropol Territory and Astrakhan Region.&#x0D; Materials and methods. The materials included climate data provided by the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences as well as epidemiological data on CCHF and ARF incidence from 2005 to 2021. The explanatory models incorporated the Bayes theorem and Wald sequential analysis. All the calculations were completed using the Microsoft Excel 2010-based program developed by the authors.&#x0D; Results. It has been found that the greatest indirect effect on development of the CCHF epidemiological situation is produced by the normalized difference vegetation index and relative air humidity in June-July in the Stavropol Territory and by the maximum, minimum and average air temperature in October as well as the minimum air temperature in July in the Astrakhan Region. ARF incidence rates depend on the indirect effect of the annual average and average annual maximum temperature, maximum temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index in April-July. The match between explanatory model-based results and prediction model-based results ranged within 46.2-100%.&#x0D; Discussion. In addition to projecting incidence rates, which could be reached with the observed values of climatic factors in the current year, the explanatory models can be used for indirect verification of prediction models and for identification of factors causing differences in results.&#x0D; Conclusion. The practical evaluation of explanatory models confirms the prospects and benefits of the study that should be continued, involving other regions highly endemic for tick-borne infections.

Does Military High-speed Boat Slamming Cause Severe Injuries and Disability?

Many operators of professional high-speed boats suffer severe, acute, and permanent injuries caused by slamming-induced hull impacts. As the number of professional high-speed boats and their speed capabilities increase, operators are reporting increasing numbers and severity of injuries. However, the actual incidence rate of acute injuries and the prevalence of chronic musculoskeletal disorders are still unknown. We sought to investigate, among professional high-speed boat operators, (1) the self-reported incidence rate of impact-induced injuries, (2) the most common types of injuries or injury locations, (3) what impact characteristics were reported, and (4) the prevalence of self-reported sick leave, disability, and medical or orthopaedic treatment. This study was an internet-based survey among retired military high-speed boat operators. The survey was given to members of the Combatant Craft Crewman Association online user group (360 members). Participants answered questions on demographics, service branch, service years and capacity, boat type, types of events, injury location, severity, pain, disability, and need for treatment. Values are presented as the mean ± SD and proportions. Incidence rates are presented as injuries per person-year. A total of 214 members of the Combatant Craft Crewman Association participated in the survey (213 men, mean age 50 ± 9 years, mean BMI 29 ± 4 kg/m 2 ). A total of 59% (214 of 360) of those we surveyed provided responses; all provided complete survey responses. The self-reported incidence rate of impact-induced injuries was 1.1 injuries per person-year served onboard. A total of 32% (775 of 2460) of respondents reported injuries that affected the back, and 21% (509 of 2460) reported injuries that affected the neck. Among those who responded, 33% (70 of 214) reported loss of consciousness onboard, and 70% (149 of 214) reported having experienced impaired capacity to perform their job onboard because of impact exposure. A total of 49% (889 of 1827) of the reported injuries were attributed to impacts containing lateral forces, 18% (333 of 1827) to frontal impacts, and 12% (218 of 1827) were attributed to purely vertical impacts. Finally, 67% (144 of 214) of respondents reported at least one occasion of sick leave from training or missions. Seventy-two percent (155 of 214) applied for a Veterans Affairs disability rating, and 68% (105 of 155) of these had a rating of 50% or higher. Additionally, 39% (84 of 214) reported having had surgery during active duty, and 34% (72 of 214) reported surgery after leaving active service. The results suggest that in the investigated military population, exposure to slamming-induced impacts onboard high-speed boats may cause more injuries than previously reported. Most reported injuries are musculoskeletal, but the high number of reported slamming-induced events of unconsciousness is concerning. Level IV, prognostic study.

Unintended beneficial effects of COVID-19 on influenza-associated emergency department use in Korea

BackgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions, including hand hygiene, wearing masks, and cough etiquette, and public health measures such as social distancing, used to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), could reduce the incidence rate of respiratory viral infections such as influenza. We evaluated the effect of COVID-19 on the incidence of influenza in Korea. MethodsThis retrospective study included all patients who visited five urban emergency departments (EDs) during the influenza epidemic seasons of 2017–18, 2018–19, and 2019–20. Influenza was defined as ICD-10 codes J09, J10, and J11, determined from ED discharge records. The weekly incidence rates of influenza per 1000 ED visits during the 2019–20 season, when COVID-19 became a pandemic, were compared with those of 2017–18 and 2018–19. The actual incidence rate of the 2019–20 season was compared with the predicted value using a generalized estimation equation model based on 2017–18 and 2018–19 data. ResultsThe weekly influenza incidence rate decreased from 101.6 to 56.6 between week 4 and week 5 in 2020 when the first COVID-19 patient was diagnosed and public health measures were implemented. The weekly incidence rate during week 10 and week 22 of the 2019–20 season decreased most steeply compared to 2017–18 and 2018–19. The actual influenza incidence rate observed in the 2019–20 season was lower than the rate predicted in the 2017–18 and 2018–19 seasons starting from week 7 when a COVID-19 outbreak occurred in Korea. ConclusionsThe implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and public health measures for the COVID-19 epidemic effectively reduced the transmission of influenza and associated ED use in Korea. Implementing appropriate public health measures could reduce outbreaks and lessen the burden of influenza during future influenza epidemics.