Introduction. Endometriosis is a multifactorial disease, affecting about 10 % of women of reproductive age. The purpose of the work is predicting the development of infertility in women with ovarian endometriosis by determining urine melatonin levels and activity indicators of nucleolar organizer regions in endometrioid ovarian heterotopias.Materials and methods. In the Clinic of South Ural State Medical University from 2018 to 2020, 2 groups of women with ovarian endometriosis were studied: group 1 — with infertility (n = 22); group 2 — without it (n = 27). The level of urinary 6-SMT and the activity of ribosomal synthesis were determined.Results. The level of 6-SMT is reduced in patients with stage I ovarian endometriosis. At stagesII and III, the level of 6-SMTis lower in women with infertility than without it: Stage II — (38.82±1.49) ng/ml and (93.04±3.64) ng/ml (p < 0.001); Stage III — (42.84±1.85) ng/ml and (58.06±1.65) ng/ml (p = 0.340). The activity of ribosomal synthesis in epithelial cells of endometrioid heterotopias increases at stage III. In fibroblasts of the stroma of endometrioid heterotopias, the activity of ribosomal synthesis is higherin women with stage III infertility, and in histiocytes— in women with stage II infertility. A logistic stepwise regression analysis was carried out and the most important predictors influencing the development of infertility were identified.Discussion. The decrease in melatonin in women with ovarian endometriosis, suffering from infertility, as well as in stage I ovarian endometriosis is consistent with the research of M. I. Yarmolinskaya et al. (2019). In the presence of infertility, activation of connective tissue histiocytes begins in the early stages. The results obtained may reflect the immunomodulatory effect of melatonin, which is expressed inincreased functional activity of connective tissue histiocytes and fibroblasts.Conclusion. Using mathematical analysis, the most important indicators that influence the reproductive prognosis in women with ovarian endometriosis (activity of nucleolar organizer regions, urine 6-SMT level) were determined, which makes it possible to create a model for calculating an individual reproductive prognosis.
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